Royal Ascot Day 2
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Royal Ascot Day 2
Qualifiers (from notes above)
2.30 – Raffle Prize (8/1< guide)
3.40 – Crystal Ocean (x2, 8/1< guide) / Magical
4.20 – I Can Fly / Rawdaa (x2, 8/1< guide) / Indian Blessing / Veracious
5.00 – New Graduate (8/1< guide) / Clon Coulis
5.35 – Iffraaz
Royal Hunt Cup
10/10 had 9 or fewer runs over 8f… (10+ 8f runs… 0/69, 7p)
10/10 had 1+ handicap win (0: 0/56, 6p)
- 8/10 had 1 or 2 handicap wins (8/114, 19p)
9/10 had 5+ runs in handicaps (0-4: 1/83, 11p)
9/10 ran in a handicap LTO (non hncp: 1/77, 10p)
8/10 did not run LH LTO: 8/143, 24p (ran LH: 2/132, 16p)
8/10 finished Top 4 LTO (8/156, 23p) (5th> : 2/126, 17p)
7/10 aged 4 (7/121,21p)
- 5: 1/70, 9p
- 6: 1/55, 6p
- 7: 1/23, 2p
- 8+ : 0/16, 2p
- USA bred: 0/28,4p
- 40/1+ SP: 0/72, 6p
- 9-6+ on back, exc claims: 0/49, 9p
- Highest class run… Group 2: 0/29,0p
- 1 run only at track previously: 0/78, 7p (could be random/meaningless… not sure a logical explanation)
- 0-1 career wins (UK/Ireland) : 0/36, 4p
- 1 win this season only: 1/71, 10p
- Claiming jockeys: 0/25, 0p
- Ran in a Group 3 LTO: 0/24,2p
- Inside/2nd Inside/3rd Inside: 0/30, 2p
- Widest (high) : 3/10, 3p, +40 BFSP
Trainers (22 years/with runners)
- Raising Sand (trainer race record…1/9,3p)
- Settle For Bay (1/3,1p)
- Style Hunter (2/16, 5p)
- Zhui Feng (1/10,2p)
- Crazy Horse (1/8,1p)
Applying the Trends
Looking at the 10/10 and 9/10 stats leaves… 8/107, 20p… +119 BFSP.
They leave a longlist of 10…
Raising Sand (T) / Kynren / Seniority / Whats The Story / Beringer / Circus Coutre / Afaak / Cardsharp / Vale Of Kent
3.40 – Crystal Ocean – 1 point win – 4/1
4.20 – Veracious – 1 point EW (1/5 4p) – 9s/10s
5.00 – Whats The Story 14s|16s / Circus Coutre 33s|40s … both 1 point EW
These flat fancies are a bit of fun for change, with my tipping focus now very much on jumps racing…
Crystal Ocean… I thought he could nab his Group 1 here with no Cracksman to chase. The ground won’t concern him and the main reason for my confidence is that Frankie may try and dictate here, making all. That’s what I hope they try and it could be a ding dong battler with Magical, with Waldgeist and Sea of Class closing.. it could be some race. But it could be tactical and i’m not sure it will suit the hold up/patiently ridden horses. Haggas won’t want his filly leaving her season here and the French raider may be left with too much to do. Well, that’s the theory anyway. CO has run some 127s on RPRs, Magical yet to get above 121. We shall see if that means much come the end of this race. I wouldn’t be shocked if they were 1-2 the whole way round. Fun reverse forecast options maybe.
Veracious… I missed off this Stoute stats qualifier last night in the qualifiers above… I thought she had a sound EW chance here given the level of her form and she may well have been brought along this season with this race in mind. LTO was her first in a TT and she came an honourable 3rd in a Group 1 at this meeting last season. It’s a tired cliche but these Stoute horses generally come into their own aged 4/5/6 and trainer/jockey have a decent record together. I’m not sure if Frankie would have had the choice or if it was an owners call. It’s not impossible she doesn’t fully put down on firm ground, her wins on good… how she will handle this softer ground is an unknown but it doesn’t seem to bother plenty of Frankels. With 4 places to play with, a fun run for my change with any luck.
The Royal Hunt Cup…
Well, best of luck!!
Firstly this intriguing tactically… all of the pace on paper is high, and they will have the fresher ground – a few races on the round course before hand which may chew up the inner. I really think those drawn low, inc the Fav and Kynren will struggle to get into this, esp if the jockeys keep straight. The race could get away from them. They all may dart to the stand side as much as they can.
Anyway, i’ve gone for two drawn high who will sit off a frenetic pace, and i’ve kept my eyes fixed on my ‘long list’ above…
What’s The Story was 4th in this last year, he won’t mind the ground (which may be no worse than GS come race time… yesterday’s times suggest it wasn’t that bad at all), won well LTO and is still open to progress, coming here on the back of a career best. If he runs his race i’d be surprised were he not bang there come the line. Solid. On paper at least.
Circus Couture… I’m still scratching my head why this one is 33s/40s. No doubt i’ll soon find out. He was a 2 1/2 length second in this race last year from stall 13 which was a decent effort. The winner came from 22. Maybe it was a fluke but he’s 4lb lower here and could be he just relishes a strong pace. He ran well twice after that in G2s/3s, one in Haydock Heavy, before all those efforts caught up with him. It’s not impossible this has been the aim this season and it got to the point where he needed to win to get in. The 1st visor did the trick LTO and while it may not work again, he is 33s+. This race should set up perfectly for him from this draw and if he gets some luck in running could be knocking on the door. I thought he was a silly price and hopefully he can get in the places at worst.
Clearly it’s highly likely I haven’t mentioned the winner, and something drawn low will now bolt up! 🙂 Spencer has a ride over the straight 8f here, and they are just worth backing EW systematically until he retires.
Best of luck with whatever you fancy.