Members Daily Post: 18/06/19 (Upd: Hunt Cup Stats)

HUNT CUP STATS / Nick’s Tips x5, Section 1 (complete), Ascot Day 1 Quals

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Stratford

3.30 – Deputy Jones   (HcH) 8/1 

4.05 – Play The Ace   (all Hc’s,HcCh) H3 5/1 

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FLAT

Ascot

5.00 – Jukebox Jive   (all Hc’s) G3 50/1 

 

Thirsk

3.20 –

Arcavallo   (micro going) 28/1 

Russian Realm   (m dist and class) 25/1 

5.45 –

Twentysvnthlancers   (m age) 22/1 

Pearl Noir   (m class) H3 17/2 

Optimickstickhill   (m class)  w1 H3 13/2 

 

Beverley

6.30 –

Fayetta   (3yo+,m age) I1 14/1 S6  UP

Lincoln Tale   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 G3 6/1 S4

7.30 –

Stringybark Creek   (3yo+) G1 7/1 S6  WON 7/1>13/2 

Ghayyar   (3yo+,m runs)  ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

9.00 – Ventura Royal  (all Hc’s)  13/2 

 

Brighton

5.50 –

Ladweb   (3yo+,m class) H3  4/1 

Essaka   (m age)  w2 H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4 UP

Tonis A Star   (m age)  

6.50 –

Little Boy Blue   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 8/1 

Pour La Victoire   (m dist) 9/1 

8.20 –

Duchess Of Avon   (m TJC) 16/1 

Hedging   (m class) H1 4/1 

8.50 – Andalusite   (3yo+) 8/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/71, 23p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

None.

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Flat Test Tips Royal Ascot 

No Ascot fancies from me today, i haven’t had time to have  a proper look through albeit it seems a challenging day as always, especially with the inclement weather. I’ve no idea what the going could be come the latter races. From the list below I thought Le Brivido looked interesting enough esp if the ground eases, and in the 5pm Ascot Stakes The Grand Visir may be worth some small change EW at 20s, has often shaped as if this sort of trip on the flat is worth a go. I’ll probably just stick to some pokes in the two big handicaps, while hoping tomorrow’s 3 miler from Uttoxter doesn’t cut up!! 🙂 

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

2.30 Ascot – Accidental Agent – 1 point EW – 12/1 gen (1/5 4p gen, 5p WH) UP, refused to race 🙁 -2

3.20 Thirsk – Gin In The Inn – 1 point EW –  7/1 (gen) 3rd, +0.4 

5.00 Ascot – Arctic Fire – 1 point EW – 25/1 (WH) 22/1 (bet365) 20/1 (gen) (1/5,5p) UP, 6th , -2

5.35 Ascot – Star of Bengal – 1 point EW – 11/1 (BV/Coral) 10/1 (gen) (1/5,4p) UP , -2

6.50 Bright – Dream Catching – 1 point EW – 7/1 (gen) 3rd, +0.4 

0/5,2p, -5.2

 

That’s all for today from Nick, as of 08,32

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Notes 2019 : READ HERE>>>

 

Royal Ascot Day 1 

Qualifiers (from notes above) 

2.30 

Le Brivido 

Hazapour (8/1< SP guide) 

3.05 

Arizona 

Light Angel (8/1< SP guide) 

3.40 

Imprimis (8/1< SP guide) 

Sergei Prokofiev 

4.20 

Phoenix of Spain 

Too Darn Hot (8/1< SP guide) 

5.00 

Batts Rock (8/1< SP guide) 

5.35 

Star of Bengal (8/1< SP guide) 

Magic Wand (Moore rode on last UK/Irish start, which HRB stats based on) 

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Royal Hunt Cup

10/285, 40p

10/10 had 9 or fewer runs over 8f… (10+ 8f runs… 0/69, 7p)

10/10 had 1+ handicap win (0: 0/56, 6p)

  • 8/10 had 1 or 2 handicap wins (8/114, 19p)

9/10 had 5+ runs in handicaps (0-4: 1/83, 11p)

9/10 ran in a handicap LTO (non hncp: 1/77, 10p)

8/10 did not run LH LTO: 8/143, 24p (ran LH: 2/132, 16p)

8/10 finished Top 4 LTO (8/156, 23p) (5th> : 2/126, 17p)

7/10 aged 4 (7/121,21p)

  • 5: 1/70, 9p
  • 6: 1/55, 6p
  • 7: 1/23, 2p
  • 8+ : 0/16, 2p

Other

  • USA bred: 0/28,4p
  • 40/1+ SP: 0/72, 6p
  • 9-6+ on back, exc claims: 0/49, 9p
  • Highest class run… Group 2: 0/29,0p
  • 1 run only at track previously: 0/78, 7p (could be random/meaningless… not sure a logical explanation)
  • 0-1 career wins (UK/Ireland) : 0/36, 4p
  • 1 win this season only: 1/71, 10p
  • Claiming jockeys: 0/25, 0p
  • Ran in a Group 3 LTO: 0/24,2p

Stalls

  • Inside/2nd Inside/3rd Inside: 0/30, 2p
  • Widest (high) : 3/10, 3p, +40 BFSP

 

Trainers (22 years/with runners)

  • Raising Sand (trainer race record…1/9,3p)
  • Settle For Bay (1/3,1p)
  • Style Hunter (2/16, 5p)
  • Zhui Feng (1/10,2p)
  • Crazy Horse (1/8,1p)

 

Applying the Trends

Looking at the 10/10 and 9/10 stats leaves… 8/107, 20p… +119 BFSP.

They leave a longlist of 12…

Exec Chef / Plutonian / Raising Sand (T) / Kynren / Seniority / Whats The Story / Beringer / Circus Coutre / Afaak / Cardsharp / Vale Of Kent

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

41 Responses

  1. Royal Ascot day one – First of all I would conclude that it looks very hard and so I would say to all to take it easy and take a chance on a few outsiders. I will post up all of my selections for day one in the tipping comp post. However here are my thoughts on the day:

    2.30 I can see Accidental Agent going well again but the one I think is worth a stab each way at a price is Sharja Bridge. He has won handicaps in the style of a group horse and if we give him the benefit of the doubt on a couple of recent runs he can go well here. I am also putting these two in a tricast with Matterhorn, that would pay a fortune.
    3.05 Another race that is hard to be confident about as we have unexposed two year old’s running. Monoski looks a decent alternative to the favourite. Two at a price who could be anything are King Of Athens and Light Angel.
    3.40 I am against Baataash and Blue Point as they are too short in the circumstances. I am a fan of Mabs Cross and I also like Equilateral and so like them as each way bets. The American runner Impremis has been well touted in previews and so I would also have a win bet at a price on him.
    4.20 I could not work it out and so I will move on.
    5.00 I like Snow Falcon each way. This is a race full of national hunt trainers and so is hard to fathom. My selection has pace and a kick at the end of a race and I think that hurdles may be a handicap to him and so may enjoy them being absent in this race? The Grand Visir has been entered by Ian Williams who usually knows what he is doing and so I like him each way as well.
    5.35 I put up Elarqam at 20/1 to win The Prince Of Wales, but the stable went for this race instead, which is an error as the original race has cut up now. I do think that Elarqam will go well but is a short price now. I like Latrobe each way as Joseph O’Brien has said that this race has always been its target. I also like Riven Light from a wily stable, who again has been targeted at this race.

    Good luck and go steady on day one.

    1. well done in 5pm Martin, had a small fun EW nibble also as per my throwaway ‘flat test’ notes , should have had your confidence!! 🙂 Still lightly raced but hardy, top duel purpose trainer, GS form and his wins over 16f on flat were both staying on efforts, all his best work late hitting line hard. Bloody good ride in slowly run race to eye also, Moore just getting that one fractionally wrong thankfully

      1. Top trainer Ian Williams and it was well backed. I think it was a late entry and Mr Williams does not so such things lightly.

        1. yep, well backed, was price-wised which prob helped but no doubt a fair bit of expert / yard money also. Not hard to see why mind when you look at his profile – GG instant expert a good way in on this occasion in that, I had a glance at those with winning flat form 16f+, he looked most interesting of those. Not always that easy of course! But did run as if may improve for that trip. Could be some jumper if he ever takes (darted away at Aintree first flight) to it in staying handicap hurdles. Williams said they were musing as to whether to come here or a Novice hurdle haha – but decided they’d best roll the dice at Ascot!

          Great to see Kingscote and Danny Tudhope have a great day.

    2. Good shout with The Grand Visir….shame you got “pricewised” but a profit is a profit!! Congrats.

  2. Agree with Martin . Tricky day at Ascot so caution advised.

    2.30. Laurens and Olmeda e/w
    3.05. Guildsman e/w
    3.40. Soldiers Call and Fairyland e/w..(Blue Point and Battaash hard to beat having clocked 40.8 and 41.17 mph respectively @ 5f).
    4.20. King of Comedy/Skardu e/w
    5.35. Magic Wand win only.
    Gd lck

  3. I have produced figures for AW winners next time out by course.

    Also as Colin said my overall figures will have been affected by previous turf wins so I have produced totals for horses with no previous turf wins.

    Then as Colin said the strike rate is also affected by differing average number of runners on each type of going, so I have modified the strike rates to allow for that giving each type of going an index figure.

    But I thought it best to wait until after Ascot to continue the discussion so as not to clutter the blog. There you are, something to look forward to on Sunday.

    1. Have you also defined the parameters for novices as opposed to experienced horses that have already shown some form Chris?

      1. Tim, it’s all getting a bit complicated.

        All I wanted to do was show that you can’t state that horses that win on AW only win on one particular type of going.

        I think I’ve done that.

        The answer to all the questions about which going will suit a horse best lie in sire statistics.

        I think I will just suggest that people should do as I do when the horse only has AW form. Compare the sire’s AW strike rate with today’s turf going strike rate. If turf is better than AW assume it can perform at least as well on today’s going.

        1. Sorry Chris…. It’s just that you referenced the convo I was having with Colin in your post yesterday. I’ve already done the exercise with novices (defined for my own purposes as no more than 9 nine runs on either turf or AW), resulting in very low chi’s and A/E ratios values with specific regard to underfoot conditions.

          Strike rates themselves can be misleading as they take in the many other unknown variables that novice horses possess that cannot rationally be attributed to the properties in question.

          1. No need to apologise, Tim, it’s just that I could see myself forever researching the topic.

            Here are my general conclusions. I don’t include firm, soft or heavy because they are more specialist.

            The only variables worth considering are good to firm and good to soft. Good is always midway. Average number of runners on each is similar approx 9.0, 9.8, 9.5.

            Horses that have won at Chelmsford, Lingfield, and Newcastle tend to win about twice as often on good to firm as good to soft.

            Horses that have won at Kempton and Wolverhampton win about the same number on each.

            Horses that have won at Southwell win about a third more often on good to soft.

            Lingfield and Newcastle have the highest percentage of wins on good to firm.

            Southwell has much lower percentages overall than anywhere else, about two thirds, don’t ask me why.

    2. Chris/Tim
      Only tend to back Handicappers and the occassional Listed and group, do not back Novice HCs or 2yo olds, maidens, claimers or Novice Chasers or Novice Hudlers.
      Handicappers are again in most cases proven on going, distance and also proven winners in the past under certain conditions and can win again off the correct weight.
      Colin

        1. Good luck to you guys. I tend to look at the profile of horses and their trainers and look for a match to the particular race. A bit like a dating site, finding a match.

          1. Rather do my own thing to finding a match, down town much more intresting!!!
            Cheers
            Colin.

  4. Morning Chaps,
    Can I ask you all a quick question?
    Is Proform worth the subscription?
    All advice appreciated.
    Andy

    1. Depends upon what you do with it from my experience of talking to others on here. I use Proform and a few months back I took advantage of some free trials to check out the other services, HRB, GG’s and Flatstats. None of them gives you anything you can’t do using Proform and found that I would need to subscribe to at least 2 services to get anywhere close to it, and even then I would still miss out on some of the things that I have now.

      TBF I didn’t get much time to evaluate GG’s as Traf 69 terminated the ‘free’ trial after I expressed my disliking of the way that they use ‘Stat Of The Day’ to promote the service only to find out that despite them quoting BFSP’s to substantiate the figures it turns out that GG’s doesn’t support BFSP within their service, but they don’t mention it in the blurb. Turned out they don’t use GG’s for Stat Of The Day which I described as disingenuous and then Traf got the hump. Either way please themselves as it’s of no use to me without exchange figures as I don’t use bookies.

      I quite liked Flatstats but right now they don’t cover jumps as the name would suggest. So it’s all swings and roundabouts I guess Andy.

      1. Thanks Tim,
        Proform basically claim that if I sign up for Platinum,the seven methods that is built in will make me enough profit to pay the fees and then some.
        As for GG’s,I had a similar problem,I had a slight rant,Matt didn’t like it,next thing account closed,subscription returned.
        I think I’ll stick with the free daily race card with Proform for the next week or two and see if I can get my head around it.
        Cheers
        Andy

        1. Yep I don’t think there is a right or wrong piece of kit to use – can depend on time / price point / level you bet and what you want from such a piece of software. At least with proform you can sign up in 8 week blocks for Platinum, so in 8-16 weeks you may have an idea as to whether their ‘off the shelf’ ideas can pay for it etc. I get the impression it’s certainly geared towards the pro punter end of the scale, and at £1250+ per year for platinum you can see why – i’d suggest there are more value alternatives for those who play in the £5/10/20 region but plenty of options around.

          1. Cheers Josh.
            I will stay with the freebie for the foreseeable future and see how we go.
            Andy

          2. TBH those ‘free systems’ that come already loaded are so over bet that it would be difficult to make the subscription short of placing monster stakes, but assuming you’re not a high roller you really need to think about what you need from it. Most of the guys on here seem to get what they need from a less expensive resource. It really only comes into its own if you want to dig down deeper below the surface than the alternatives will allow for.

            What are you using at the moment?

          3. Hi Tim,
            I’m a long time subscriber to HRB and just having a taster with Inform Racing.
            I’m finding it quite hard to formulate any kind of systems,methods at the moment.
            Any help,directions,greatly appreciated.
            Andy

          4. Haven’t tried Inform and when I had the free trial with HRB I found myself switching over to Flatstats, maybe because I preferred the interface or because it was more like Proform, I dunno. I only got a 3 day trial off of HRB and really it takes more than that to get a proper feel for it. As far as systems go all mine started out as ideas and observations some of which turned out to be fruitless, but with the ones that show a profit I’ll put the time in to continue to develop them.

            Sometimes one thing leads to another and I end up ditching the original concept for something I discovered along the way that has more potential. I can’t think of a single time I’ve ever come up with anything worth pursuing by just playing around with it.

          5. I think that Josh is spot on here. Paying £1.250 + wont make you a super punter, you have to have an eye, an ear and a mind for spotting winners. That is all that it is about. Geegeez does the trick for me at a fraction of the cost. Good luck with your punting.

          6. Might not make you a super punter but has certainly improved my action. As for the extra cost per month I disagree with Martin as the extra £60 over GG’s price is relatively insignificant when I look at the amounts of money I bet over a year. If you only bet £20 a time you have only to benefit an extra 3 points a month and you have already recovered the extra cost.

  5. No write ups sorry.
    14:30
    LAURENS 1pt win 6/1
    LE BRIVIDO 1pt win 6/1
    15:05
    GUILDSMAN 1pt win 7/1
    WELL OF WISDOM 1pt win 22/1
    15:40
    IMPRIMIS 1pt win 11/1
    MABS CROSS 1pt win 8/1
    16:20
    KING OF COMEDY 1pt win 6/1
    SHAMAN 1pt win 10/1
    17:00
    KEROSIN 1pt win 14/1
    BATTS ROCK 1pt win 12/1
    17:35
    RIVEN LIGHT 1pt win 8/1
    MOUNTAIN ANGEL 1pt win 14/1

    as always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 5.20 – Last Chance Paddy on 6th run @ 40
    Be 8.00 – Beyond The Clouds on 1st run @ 15/2
    GL

  7. COLINS BETS
    6.30 Beverley Gold Fleece BOG 7/2
    7.30 Beverley Abushamah BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.20 Thirsk Royal Prospect BOG 20/1
    7.30 Beverley Sumner Beach BOG 40/1
    7.50 Brighton Goodwood Sonnet BOG 7/1
    8.50 Brighton Warning Fire BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    No bet
    Colin

  8. Lambourn
    5.00 Ascot Juke Box Jive BOG 40/1 Says that he has a small but select string to attack Ascot quite sweet on this runner, the other day said that he has a dark horse for Friday cannot wait.
    Charles Hills
    6.30 Beverley Vindolanda BOG 7/2
    Ed Walker
    2.30 Ascot Stormy Antartic BOG 28/1 think i am getting to understand him better and he has high hopes for a result! maybe worth small ew.
    Colin

  9. No bets for this afternoon and tonight’s not looking brilliant either it has to be said. Back as usual with an update but not holding my breath.

  10. Hi Josh
    Trying to find your big read doc without any success would you please let me know where it is, thanks
    Colin

      1. Thanks for your prompt reply had a very quick look will look later after Ascot, the section on class certainly look at that and for me using mainly HCs they must have won in the past for the last i had heard only 20 to 24 % horses in training do the winning and if they have done it once then they can do it again.

        1. Yep, as with previous discussions on going / dist, the facts remain that if you just focus on those with winning form in X (going/dist/Class) you’re just straight off the bat reducing your chances… but it’s all about how you play and then how you assess oppo/what sort of races you play in (ie trying to focus on those packed with exposed handicappers)

          I just looked at those with proven winning form in the class… there have now been 11 654 turf flat handicaps (3yo+/4yo+) since start of 2014…

          4574 of them won by horses never to have won in class…
          3790 had 0 wins in todays class or higher… from 9441 races where at least 1 horse with that profile ran. That’s 40% of all said races… won by horses with no win in class or higher class… it’s just a case of bearing that in mind I suppose, as that’s quite a chunk of winners you’re automatically discarding, but you have to do what works for you, while keeping such facts in mind.

          The placed stats are different… for example… 2248 winners from 11 654 races had never placed in the class. Still a chunk, but placed form in class may be more worthwhile than proven winning form.

  11. Draw at Thirsk 5f to 7f High
    Josh my devilment had to put this up
    1.40 5f 8 from 12 runners
    2.10 7f 8 from 12
    2.45 7f 5 from 10
    3.20 6f 7 from 9 Elite gave the winner at 20/1
    3.55 7f 12 from 11, one N/R
    5.10 7f 6 from 5 three N/Rs
    5.45 5f 6 from 17 only race where bottom half of the draw had a winner
    So out of the last two meetings bottom half of draw had 2 winners from 13 races.
    Colin.

    1. yep, as I said the recent stats would suggest it’s more a pace bias than a draw bias… but it’s foolish to look at the blanket draw stats outside of distance / class / ground and importantly field size –
      We can’t have a debate about facts Colin, there is nothing subjective here – cold hard facts, depending on those conditions above – and the facts remain, high does well, low does well! Pace/front runners important in both, as with everything else. Low is the best place to be in certain circumstances as discussed.
      I’d hope by now you could agree with all of the above. You’ve got blinkers on if you can’t – you cannot be dogmatic at Thirsk – if your view is simply to cross off low drawn runners without looking at going /distance / class / field size (and all said variations) then you’re happy to miss out on a load of nice priced winners, simple as that! 🙂

      The debate we had before was in a race with 14+ runners… the last winner of the card was 17 runners… biggest field of the day and first two were drawn 6 and 1. 3rd was 19… not beaten far… clearly a pace bias to some extent maybe this time but given everything you have said, in that race you’d have just crossed off 1st and 2nd, for no reason based in fact.

      Josh

      1. Josh
        do agree with you but on these northern Yorkshire courses there are some very shrewd trainers who often end up with very well hanicapped horses which you would have great difficulty to find them they include
        the polite well mannered who would not say boo to a ghost Mick Easterby, Tim Easterby, T.D. Barron, A Bittian,R Farhey then there is Paul Midgeley who had that last race winner, also Michael Dodds and the last one can think of at the moment is David Griffiths who comes to Yorkshire from time to time and when they have one ready they can win from any draw.
        Cheers
        Colin.

        1. And it’s our bloody job to find them!! 🙂

          The general point is that at Thirsk high drawn horses clearly do well, in a variety of circumstances…
          but so do low drawn, in certain circumstances, and I don’t want you to be looking at races there and just putting a line through them, as that doesn’t make any sense on all the evidence available to my eyes.

          I’m putting the bubbles on ice now, for the day you tip a horse drawn low at Thirsk who bolts up haha – it will happen! 🙂
          Josh

          1. How could i forget Karl Burke and Kevin Ryan another pair of trainers who train not to far from Thirsk,
            when you look at this list of trainers do not know how you can back a winner for none of them are keen on favourites.
            1980 went down for the three day meeting at Cheltenham, got chatting to Tim Easterby in a club he was assistent trainer to his dad Peter, they had the favourite for the Triumph Hurdle and a 25/1 outsider Starfen, Tim said would back Starfen, it was 4 to 6 lengths clear coming to the last hurdle and the bloody thing fell, that is the only time spoke to Tim.
            Will hold you to a pint of Abbots rather than that fizzy stuff!!!
            Colin.

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