Members Daily Post: 17/06/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), Royal Ascot Notes

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Carlisle

3.00 –

Caustic Love   (micro’s age and -class) H3

Ticks The Boxes   (all Hc’s) H1 I3 4/1

Dream House   (m’s age and -class) G3

3.30 – Make Me   (m -class) H3 I3

5.00 –

Corton Lad   (m -class) H3 

Breathable   (m TJC and -class) I3 G1 13/2 S6  UP

Iconic Code   (m age and -class)

 

Catterick

3.45 –

Theatre Of War   (3yo+) G3

Cameo Star   (m dist and age)

5.15 – Spirit of Zebedee   (m class) G1 7/1 S6 UP

 

Nottingham

(Inspect 08.00)

6.50 – Something Lucky   (m dist) I3

8.20 –

Shazzab   (all Hc’s, m dist and age)  ES+ 12/1 S3A

Break The Silence   (all Hc’s,4yo+,m -class) G1 16/1 S6

8.50 – War Brigade   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 

 

Windsor

7.10 – Grapevine   (all Hc’s) 

7.40 – Molls Memory   (all Hc’s)  w1ES+G1 9/2 S3A

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/71, 23p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

None, no race types of choice

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

3.45 Catt – Theatre of War – 1 point EW- 9/1 UP -2 

7.40 Winds- Diamond Dougal – 1 point EW-  8/1 UP -2

that’s all for today.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Royal Ascot Notes 2019 : READ HERE>>>

I’ve gone for the ‘less is more’ for these notes above. I plan to post ‘qualifiers’ as starting points – clearly there wont be many biggies given the stats etc, but hopefully a few winners. I’ll endeavour to dust off my ‘flat eyes’ and have a few dabbles with the ‘test’ flat pokes, mainly based on said qualifiers, but not to the detriment of any 3 mile+ chases! 🙂 Knowing my luck he’ll probably never have another Ascot winner but backing Jamie Spencer EW on all his straight 8 furlong rides should land on a biggie or two before his career is out. 

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I’ve moved ‘the big read’ document into the Key, which contains ideas that you may wish try out when using the content on these pages as ‘starting points’ 

As an example, with the section 1 stats you could create your shortlist from those horses that are around 7/1 when you look, or maybe 10/1< (in expectation they are overpriced, essentially ignoring the biggies) and with any Top Rated H1, I1, G1 and H3. 

From there you could try and find front runners that may stay there, class droppers, those with ‘hot form’ and a change of jockey. For example. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, don’t recall where I saw it but 3yo with less than 6 career starts improves the Spencer micro? 🙂

    1. Ah when a micro like that gets to 4/13,7p in handicaps say I’d tend to stop over complicating. Those angles are prob then more to do with the profile of horse /said races than his ability to switch them off and his superb clock. Albeit would make plenty of logical sense for why he may excel on inexperienced /buzzy 3 year olds where getting them to race efficiently is even more vital. I’ll have another look but that may be a reason to ‘go harder’ but his riding style and in those big field races is clearly suited to that CD. Maybe unlike any other jockey riding today.

      1. A question that I have not done any research on re jockeys at Ascot, but only at Royal Ascot. I would like Frankie Dettori, Oisin Murphy and Jamie Spencer.

        I do not think I want to follow a particular trainer due to the competitiveness of the races but the Aiden O’Brien angle seems solid. The visitors to our shores from around the world do not look that strong to me. However one could pop up at a decent price in a sprint? I do not like Waldgeist at all and the Wesley Ward horses seem to be volume based rather than special. We shall see.

        I will post up tips here and on the tipping post this week.

        Good luck.

        1. Thanks for the golf tips Martin, much appreciated and pulled me out of a hole at weekend, proper feeling sorry for myself and Koepka just failed… sorry for the golf reference and will focus my attention onto Ascot and Class 2/3 chases hurdles with more than 6 runners, (of which there have been very little of!).

  2. If I could just chip in on the question of which going suits AW winners best.

    I used HRB to breakdown by going all horses that won on the Flat directly following a win on the AW.

    Firm 30/177, 16.95%

    Good To Firm 473/3144, 15.04%

    Good 353/2653, 13.31%

    Good To Soft 141/1190, 11.85%

    Soft 121/985, 12.28%

    Heavy 24/197, 12.18%

    There is a bias towards the firm side of good, 44% of all winners, compared to the soft side 25%.

    But you can’t really rule anything out.

    1. Thanks for the information, how do the results , look like By track ? Just guessing Southwell would show better results on soft , than a quick track like Lingfield?

    2. Hi Chris
      thanks for your input for me the only flaw is next time out after winning on the AW then winning on soft/heavy many of the horses on that data may well have won on soft or heavy in the past, and are proven on the surface and i may well have backed some of them.
      Yesterdays horse going back had run 4 times on gd/firm but never ran on soft..

      Today on Elite have put an example 3.30 Catterick ishebayorgrey won 4 times on gd/firm only never won on anything less than this going and going is very important and for me a horse should be proven on the ground by having won on it in the past
      Data churned off a computer does not always give true facts for some could have been odds on or 2/3 runner races which would never back in.
      Cheers
      Colin

      1. Your view is the generally accepted view of form followers everywhere Colin but you forget to take the odds into account. If you followed form to the n’th degree you would be backing short priced horses all the time. Some times you have to weigh up the downsides and look at the odds on offer. Yesterday’s horse was value at 16.0 to my eyes. Sure…. it had only ever run on good to firm, but it had only had four runs on turf. Far too soon to come to any hard and fast conclusions as to preferred ground or any of the characteristics of any particular track for that matter.

        It is of no surprise to me that you ‘missed’ out on that 25/1 shot the other day because horses that come in at these kind of prices rarely tick anything close to all the boxes.

        1. Tim
          Today one of my potential bets on Elite Ishebayorgrey which i did highlight the going was an issue, it still has not won on anything under gd/firm so 2 horses mentioned and 2 losers, afraid did not see 16/1 as value for it had no proven form on soft and it did not win.
          Trainers are always going on about going and it certainly is not an excuse they mostly know what going their horse runs best on, occassionally they do get a surprise but not often.
          AW racing is what i enjoy backing because the condition of the courses are normally box standard and run true compared to the turf where you rely on a clerk of the course to publish the correct going which sadly is not always correct, and a 3/1 winner at Wolverhampton pays the same as a 3/1 winner at Ascot.
          Cheers
          Colin

          1. Gents do read my ‘big read’ doc if you haven’t already ! 🙂 Esp those stats on horses proven (winning form/placed form) over distance and going… a large chunk of winners of flat turf handicaps have no winning form and no placed form, many are winning on said official going for the first time when they do. It’s a big enough percentage, 30% of so, of all winners…
            But that’s just a different way to attack the game, and there are many ways. Many like Colin will opt for proven winning form on the going which is fair enough, and i’d tend to agree i’d want to see solid placed or winning form in extreme goings, soft and heavy… but even then it is a game of odds… more importantly for those who prefer to play horses with ‘proven form’ (which is more obvious to odds compilers/betfair and thus may be less value off the bat?) I think the assessment of the opposition becomes even more important, especially that of the unexposed ones without any proven form, so ideally as few as those as possible.
            But many ways to skin the cat in this great game.

          2. Josh
            by the sound of this you bought Clive Holts book not read the big read but will do tomorrow for heavy weekend 3.30am, 3.30am an 1.00am this morning.
            Hope you had a good holiday and you have brought some sunshine back, to hopefully dry out the ground and the horses can run again on what they should be in flaming June.
            Colin.

          3. Sure Colin…. we all like to see our suspicions confirmed to us in the form book however, the advantage of seeing something confirmed is often reflected in the price. It’s down to the individual to decide as to whether that price is affordable or not.

            A sample size of 2 bets is meaningless when you play the middle to long end of the market. It’s funny that this should come up now because I’ve just spent the last 2 days increasing the sample size from 2015 to date, to 2010 to date, purely because I was worried that some of the anomalies I was seeing could be due to an inadequate sample of data to draw down on. Everything else remains as it was but the increased data will change the selections and the frequency of the selections as Proform is dynamic by nature, so adding several thousand more events will have a knock on effect. Hopefully a pleasant one.

          4. Tim
            it is not a sample size of 2 have been using the going since 1984 and will stick with it, may have a bit of fun and the potential bets of mine which i exclude through going concerns may prove more lucrative to lay them than my tipping winners! no comment to this Ha Ha.
            Look forward to backing your HCs in the future and if you wish then will keep a record of going concerns of yours will do for myself, but if you want an update in time let me know, if we can help one another that is whats its all about.
            Colin

          5. Only just read Josh’s post above yours Colin. Not sure how I missed it. I guess we’re all saying the same thing really. Is no need to keep a record Colin as it is programmable within the Proform suite to extract the figures with the odds. You can even choose between ‘Actual Going’ or ‘Official Going’. Another scary thing you don’t get to read in the form book. The differences between the two at some courses is a real eye opener.

            I just ran the program for Ascot tomorrow watching the wheel thing turning with bated breath, only to find nothing for me. Thirsk however has turned up a couple so I know everything’s ok generally. Could be that the overall effect reduces the number of bets, will just have to see.

          6. Tim
            Sounds good afraid will stick with my old methods never came up on this new technology, met my mate Dai Williams in 1985 and he always mentioned the going said before it nearly came to blows at Stratford for he went up there with one with great hopes of a win for them to have watered the course and claimed it was good when soft, never seen him so angry.
            Colin

  3. today’s selections.
    Carlisle.
    3-00. Caustic Love 18-1, unexposed comes here after a short break on the back of a couple of decent 2nd’s. 1/2 pt ew
    3-30. Royal Shaheen 25-1, runs off his lowest ever mark and drops into a class 5 , has run twice at Carlisle coming 1st and 2nd. 1pt ew
    4-30. Peachey Carnehan 9-1, looked to be coming back to some sort of form when a decent 5th lto. 1/2 pt ew

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 4.30 – Destination Aim on 3rd run @ 40
    K 8.30 – Conrad Hastings on 3rd run @ 11

  5. COLINS BETS
    2.45 Catterick Lucky Beggar BOG 4/1
    5.40 Windsor Kaylens Mischief BOG 4/1
    6.20 Nottingham Lady Calcaria BOG 11/2
    6.50 Nottingham Global Melody BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    6.50 Nottingham Global Melody BOG 7/2
    8.50 Nottingham War Brigade BOG 3/1
    No bet 3.30 Carlisle ishebayorgrey all his 4 wins have been on good to firm so for me not proven on the ground and will certainly not be backing it.
    NEW METHOD
    8.50 Nottingham War Brigade BOG 3/1
    Colin

  6. Looking around the 2yo cards today it appears the auction maiden season is properly upon us. These are even harder to puzzle out that the novices.

    At Windsor tonight the 6.10 is a novice. Although Passing Nod and Shammah come out joint top for me on 4.25 I will not be hurrying to back either. Shammah because it has showed little after 2 runs for Hannon which is a definite negative, Passing Nod because it is favourite on trainer and jockey and a ludicrous 15/8.

    The two I prefer are Newyorkstateofmind , ran ok on debut behind Ocasia Cortez and should improve. Hubert – Kirk a pretty unreliable fto trainer but curious that Oisin is put up and as it is by Kodiac going should be ok. I’ll only be backing one of these ag=fter I’ve seen them.

    The Novice Auction is a real lottery. Followers of my ramblings are probab;ly nursing a grievance after as strong recommendation went west by a head last week. In my view due to Shane Kelly doing too much early. This time he is ideally drawn and unless there is a standout in the paddock I shall be supporting again although Raahy’s form looks quite good. My 4.25 scorers are Tomfre and Ecclesiastical.

    Wedding anniversary tomorrow, so I shall not be around to watch the Coventry. As I posted last week, I am already on Threat. Unfortunately the draw appears to favour Arizona and my other big danger Monoski.

    Just as an aside, as I will be there tonight, I had a look at the apprentice race and could not understand the price of Rainbow Jazz. 66/1, down to below his last winning mark, by Red Jazz whose progeny appear to like some cut in the ground, jockey a bit questionable, but then they are all here to learn today.
    Hugh

  7. No bets at all for the afternoon meets, not that I really wanted to get involved when I looked at the cards. A couple of possibilities for tonight so back at 5.00

    1. Nothing for tonight either which I find surprising as Windsor from past performance is usually a regular contributor.

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