Members Daily Post: 11/06/19 (complete)

The big read / Daily Tip x1 (non runner) + preview, Nick’s Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Lingfield

4.00 – Ashazuri   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I1 G3 2/1 S1 S4 

 

Salisbury

None

 

Carlisle   

8.30 –

Rux Ruxx   (micro -class) I3 8/1 

Epona   (m’s age and -class) I3 12/1 

 

Thirsk

6.20 – Kingdom Brunel   (m TJC) 16/1 

7.20 –

Betsy Trotter   (m TJC) 20/1 

Mr Orange   (4yo+,m dist and age) I1 14/1 S6 UP

Prestbury Park   (4yo+,m dist) G3 13/2 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/71, 23p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

8.10 Roscommon – Trongate – 1 point win 18/1 (lad) 16/1 (gen) Non runner, 60+ minutes well spent! 

that’s all for this race, 09.22, write up…

In what feels an open race on paper I wanted to take a chance on one at a price, and he jumped out.

I suppose my 1-2-3 in this, at the odds, would be him, Full Cry and Tesseract, more on those two in a moment…

Trongate – this is his first run for Mr Cloke, (nope, I hadn’t heard of him either!) having left Iain Jardine since his last run. On closer inspection he was trained by his ‘new’ trainer in his one PtP, before being sold. His last rules runner was a winner 10 days ago, they’ve generally been running well, and he’s booked Danny Mullins, which I found interesting. His recent rules winners have generally been ridden by ‘big’ names, and trainer/jockey are 1/1 – that was over fences. Danny is 1/2 on chasers here in the last year and he generally likes to be aggressive. There are no habitual front runners in this albeit plenty of pace pushers and the horse has raced up there before, so I hope they don’t anchor him. 

There is more to come over fences from the selection, this being only his 7th handicap chase, and I think 120 underestimates him a tad. Ignoring his last run, his RPRs before that were consistently in the higher 120s, and not many in here have matched that. That’s one element of working out if he may be well handicapped, the other is ‘hot form’ and who he’s been in and around…  last August at Perth, on his first chase start, he was second to Cubomania, trained by Elliot. He was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths, staying on over 20f. That horse would go from strength to strength after that, climbing through the ratings, and finishing in the low 140s before a tragic end. He won a couple of races after that and ran over 23f and over 21f in heavy in a manner which suggests 3m should be within reach. Jardine always thought he’d stay. He does have stamina to prove but at this price i’ll pay to find out. He does look a strong galloping sort. This track may be tight enough but he has Perth form so I can’t use that as an excuse. I think he’s had excuses for his four runs since. At Carlisle he hurt himself when jumping (lost a shoe/overreach – when back legs cannon into front, cut them etc) and had a break after that to recover. The Ayr C3 Novice wasn’t too bad, running of the same weight as the 140 rated winner, and giving 10lb to the 128 second.  He raced over 16f at Carlisle in a C3 Novice (rated 123), beaten by 8l to a 128 horse that he had to give 12lb to. His run LTO needs forgiving but that was proper fast ground, it was a race packed full of 130-140 animals and they didn’t hang around. He looked out of his comfort zone early on there. At his price I can forgive him that. 

I’ve no doubt he’s got chases in him now back in Ireland and whatever he does today I’ll keep an eye on him. I hope they race him up there and these fences are not the stiffest. I think he will keep galloping and could have a bit in hand, if he runs his race. 

The ground is a bit of a mystery. He won’t mind what it does. The flat track was soft/heavy in places yesterday. The jumps track is yielding / good to yielding (good to soft) in places. He won’t mind if it’s softer than that, albeit it would help in the sense of inconveniencing a few others (and taxing their stamina) 

Of the rest… well Full Cry is interesting but I thought he was open to attack from something better handicapped/more lightly raced over fences and I do have a niggle over his stamina. He’s scrambled home over 25f before in a poor enough race so maybe nothing to it, but I do think he’s vulnerable, especially if this is on the softer side. I was on the fence a bit as I can see the case and his run LTO may have been a prep. De Bromhead is always to be feared at this time of year and he’ll be up there pushing the pace. 

Tesseract is interesting given he’s unexposed/lightly raced but has clearly had all sorts of problems. He has stamina to prove, but may improve for it, and there’s a chance he bounces. He ran in this last year and it could have been a plan. I’ll be concerned if he’s well backed, not that it matters with these connections, but it’s a positive. He’s the biggie I fear i’ve got wrong but there were just a few too many niggles, even at this price. A big run wouldn’t shock me though but this may come too soon. 

So, I may have got one of those wrong and will be annoyed if they win. I will live with something else beating me. Ellie Mac is short enough given the level of her form and stamina to prove. She was running well LTO before UR late on and Townend is on (0/4 for yard in recent years). Clearly not a shock winner. I can leave Hanlon’s in-form Hunter Chaser at 6s, given he’s usually held up out the back. Not for me. Meade’s doesn’t seem big at 7s given he’s still yet to win over fences . He’s unexposed but I wasn’t keen at his price. Maybe he needed the run LTO but questions are starting to mount now, especially given how lightly raced he is for his age. Maybe he’s had issues. Beyond The Law at 7s seemed short also given the strength of his form and he’s another who doesn’t convince me that he’ll fully see this out. 

Mac N cheese is interesting to a point but may find this sharp enough I think and has it to prove from this mark. That win two starts back wasn’t the strongest of races. I’m not sure Hugo N Taz is good enough either but I suppose he’s in form and could build on that run LTO, albeit Mac N Cheese has him held on that Punch run. 

Ned Stark is interesting… no doubt this 11 year old will bolt up at 11s. Formerly with Alan King it’s interesting they’ve kept him in training given his issues. I couldn’t have him at his price but he’s well handicapped on very old form and used to be smart. The question is whether he retains any ability and the market may guide as to that. He’s been off the track 600+ days. He was of 500+ before his last start. I’ll just applaud Elliot if he wins. 

I can’t have the other 6. I’m not sure whats happened to a few of them, inc Wishmoor, who cuts out like a light as if he’s got internal problems, or mental. They try 1st CP. At some point he’ll be on a going day, as he was at Punchy a few starts back, and he’ll bolt up. This track may be sharp enough but he’s got too many questions even at 40s. The Gatechecker has the ability but he has mental frailties and is usually held up last and appears to be out of form. A danger if on a going day and I fancied him two starts back. Cecil Corbet is 12 and has had 200+ days off. Those sorts can just beat me, esp at 14s, whoever they’re trained by. 

So, fingers crossed I get a run for my money. If he can sit comfortably front rank, popping away, i’ll get excited. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

2.45 Salis – Quick – 1 point EW – 12/1 (SB/BV) 11/1 (gen)  2nd, 11/1>8/1 15p R4, +0.67 

7.20 Thirsk – Mr Orange – 1 point EW – 14/1 (gen) (1/5,5p, WH/BetF) UP , -2 

that’s all, as of 08.07 

0/2,1p, -1.33.

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

The Big Read : Ideas to Improve Your Punting Success : READ HERE>>>

Well for those of you who like reading ideas related to racing/analysis, I hope you enjoy flicking through the above. I didn’t intend for it to be 6000 words long but I found it hard to stop writing! (put the kettle on!)

Inside there are ideas on how to use the Members’ content to form a daily shortlist and then some thoughts on general race/horse analysis, that you may find interesting. There’s plenty of useful stats relating to a range of topics as well as my opinions on a variety of ‘form’ factors.

There’s probably a few typos, poor grammar and dodgy syntax that you’ll have to put up with. 🙂

I would be mildly surprised if there wasn’t at least one thing I’ve covered that is useful to you, but who knows. Anyway, enjoy, and let me know what you think 🙂 (inc polite constructive criticism, you may think it’s rubbish!)

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

    1. FULL CRY
      Mr De Bromhead has won this before and maybe his other shots are better value, but, with a 7lb claimer on here I believe this one is the main selection, he has the class above these, hence having top weight and if he puts a shift in should be away from these before anyone has realised..
      MAC N CHEESE
      Everyone, including the paperboy knew the track was the problem LTO, on this more open course MNC should be in his element and if FC fails, this fella will pick up the pieces, should be up with the pace and hopefully can make hay off the lighter weight here.
      RIVIERA SUN one of the other DeBromhead runners with slippers on his back should go well, but, Full Cry has beaten him already (albeit in 4th lto) and with a pull in the weights i still don`t think that 31 length difference can be made up by RS, i could be wrong though…..

      Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

      1. GL Stewart, i can see the case for those esp Full Cry. LTO may well have been a prep for this and he only gave out late on. I’ve had a nibble on him just in case!

        Mac N Cheese… I read the track situation different to you… Balinrobe is a more galloping chase track than Roscommon (relatively, it’s still tight)- well it’s a 1m4f circuit, this is 1m2f and from the maps looks tighter. I thought it may do for him but I could be wrong.

        Josh

        1. Lost count of the number of times I have done research only to have it thwarted by the dreaded N/R`s, probably one of the reasons I now pick two per race. Like I have said I can cope with the bashed around in the box, not eating up, but, going?? Come on, you all know the racecourses by now and the fact of if Haydock has a deluge it is always soft/heavy going, all year round…Same with the Irish courses, most of them are like sponges, apart from like last year when the ground was Hard at some tracks and they were still trying to pass it off as Good/ Firm…?

          1. Well only one NR so far, sadly my one haha. He’s versatile ground wise so if that’s the excuse I find it odd.
            The market is suggesting I may regret not going with JOB/JPs , 16s into 13/2 so far. We shall see if I’ve made an error but hope one of yours flies in for you.

          2. Ah Full Cry did you proud there, ran a cracker- alas just outstayed, but he did everything right, that’s when you need rub of green and winner to make an error or something! Sodding 12 year olds off 200+ day breaks winning, drifted like a barge also, the dream team did it again though, sadly!

  1. A selection for Tuesday.
    Yesterday St Andrews 40/1 4th WHill.

    3.45 S Time for a Toot
    4.45 S Geranium
    6.50 T Home before Dusk
    7.20 T Gullane One/ Uncle Charlie if a runner, ran yesterday.?
    8.00 C Rodney after Dave

    Mike

    1. Wow Mike, Gullane One 40/1 > 33/1. Shame you didn’t put it in the Tipping Competition BSP 57.08!!

  2. today’s selections.
    Salisbury.
    3-15 Dark Poet 8-1
    3-45. Lightening Dance 8-1
    4-45. Brancaster 11-1
    all 1/2 pt ew and 1/8 pt ew trixie

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 3.45 – Escape The City on 4th run @ 12
    BRT
    R 8.10 – The Gatechecker on 3rd run @ 33
    3m+
    R 8.10 – Wishmoor on 2nd run @ 40

  4. got free tickets for Thirsk tonight for me and the wife , she’s just seen the weather forecast and say’s she’s not going, what a lightweight i mean what’s wrong with heavy rain and strong winds 🙂

  5. Morning all, off to a very poor heavy ground Lingfield today! Josh, if you or anyone have time to pick out any diamonds it would be appreciated!

    Wish me luck!

  6. Thanks for your comments yesterday MC….just pleased that the analysis looks transferable to international stakes races….opens up more quality betting opportunities….nothing today or tomorrow…..back Thursday.

  7. COLINS BETS, ELITE BETS and NEW METHOD

    No bets today

    Thirsk still advertizing GOOD going other two courses both Soft at the moment do you believe THIRSK.
    Most of my potential bets in the night meetings, have wrong draws ground will be heavy how many non runners will be announced later, prices will more than likely reduced through R4s, so not worth the risk today.
    Colin.

      1. do not think its good at the moment and tonight it will be heavy, one of todays meetings could well be abandoned later would not be surprised.

    1. Thirsk do not let the rain stop you coming bring your umbrella and still they advertize GOOD going you cannot make it up any other buisness you would have been sacked for incompidence, but not good old boys of the racing world.

  8. The Coventry
    I’ve had a look and can’t really see anything to back other than Threat. Biggest danger is the favourite Arizona I suppose but his speed ratings are only a bit better than Threat’s.

    Also Threat won over 5f and is a big rangy type for whom 6f looks ideal, just the one race and loads of scope to improve.

    Currently 6’s with 365 and 5s elsewhere. Maybe drift a bit if there is a steamer.

    Of the outsiders the obvious one is Ventura Rebel. Looks an oddly lacklustre race this year.
    Hugh

    1. I put Threat up for this race at 10/1 each way on another site. I do not think that he is value at 6/1 now. He is a strong, tall, rangy colt but needs time to grow. He was pretty green in his last race but got it done, which may be very good?
      I do not know if it was you (I think so) or someone else who told me that, apologies.

  9. All webbed up with non runners again and only the one HCP qualifier left for the afternoon having just lost Time For A Toot at Salisbury. Is gonna be a tough week all round me thinks. Not even looked at the evening stuff yet.

    1. Nothing from me for the afternoon as my only remaining bet is well below the value threshold and the non hcp events are very poor. Back at 4.30 with the update.

  10. Hi Josh, just finished your big read, extremely interesting and I recommend all members read it. Some very interesting stats in there that came as a surprise to me, just goes to show how many (wrong) assumptions we may have. Well done on the research. The only area I disagree with you on is the one or two bets per day. You what?! 🙂 🙂

    1. That’s very kind.
      Haha. Well that was more as a guide esp if you wanted to ‘go to town’ on a race or a shortlist of horses. So I suppose I meant 1-2 horses as a result of full analysis, as opposed to a limit on bets! Not everyone has 2+ hours a day to look at racing etc and in general, outside of following systems or strategies, or tipsters, you can’t cut corners with race analysis imo. I suppose as you get more experience and/the tools you use you can get through races quicker etc. On flip side some people won’t spend long on a race at all but I assume they have some sort of criteria/rules!

  11. Draw at Thirsk high in sprints, because mentioned the importance of the draw yesterday.
    Nick first of all i have backed Mr Orange so please do not get upset for after the event people will take what is said with a pinch of salt.
    Had a look at Mr Orange drawn 1 normally would have put a line through it, because Nick had done his research decided to look into Mr Orange.
    21/4/18 Won at Thirsk gd/soft from stall 1, the next 6 home were from stalls 11, 12, 13, 15, 10, 14 from a 20 runner field, now we all know Paul Midgley is a dab hand with sprinters, so it is possible Mr Orange can win again from stall 1 tonight with Douggie Costello in the plate again when winning on the 21/4/18.
    Thirsk is well known that an high draw is normally needed in sprits, and the example shows this is the case but on occassions it can happen a low draw can win, at Thirsk this does not tend to happen very often, maybe gd/sft makes it a more even playing field, or just the midgley connection.
    Colin.

    1. Well mine not good enough but with the winner from 4 and 4th from 2 it certainly seems that draw is less of an issue than in the past. If you look at the recent races over the distance on the ground the results are very mixed so you may want to revisit your theories. BTW surprised you were expecting heavy. They got no rain last night and only started raining about 4PM. Appreciate they sometimes cock it up but clerk seemed fairly spot on today.

      1. do not know where that claim of not had any rain till 4pm for went on bbc weather for Thirsk at about noon and it was raining all day to them, live in Yorkshire and Calender local news there weather map had blanket rain over the county allday and had heavy rain allday in Sheffield and it is still coming down, there was severe weather warnings around Thirsk around noon.
        Traf of GG at 10.18 am quote rain all day in Thirsk : yellow Met Office warning too.
        Afraid no rain till 4pm, clerk of the course spot on, bullshit.
        5.20 6 f won stall 9 from 10 runners
        5.50 6f won stall 5 from 9
        6.20 7f won 11 from 13
        7.20 6f won 4 from 15
        7.50 7f won 10 from 11
        8.50 6f won 11 from 9
        Please get your facts correct only one race 7f and under was won by an horse from the bottom half of the draw, so no i do not need to review my theories.

  12. Just seen the result of the 5.20 Thirsk 6 furlong first three home drawn 9, 6, 5 from a 10 runner field.
    Colin

    1. Hi Colin,
      I’ve just had a look after your comment, as normally i’d agree and would have thought High was best – however, as per the stats in geegeez race card under the draw tab, it’s actually better to be drawn low when it’s good to soft (which it now is)…
      Actually looking at recent handicaps over that distance, 14+ runners… the last 23 races…
      12 won by those drawn low (12/117, 26p)
      2 in the middle (by far the worst, being high or low is best)
      9 drawn high.. middle to high … 11/254 runners, 53 places.

      The place % are similar across the board suggesting that there may well just be a pace bias as much as anything and he’s next to a front runner, with one or two high.

      A case could be made when it’s softer ground that you should focus on those drawn low, and they are very profitable, no doubt because people think the decent ground high bias is still applicable. Albeit having said that, on good/good to firm, low does better also.
      Maybe it’s changed around in recent years/months.
      Of course there will always be exceptions to the rule, and high may win tonight. Or maybe it’s an ‘in meeting’ bias depending on what watering they have done! But the stats suggest you cannot be dogmatic about high vs low at thirsk over 6f hncps.
      Josh

      1. Thanks for that Josh not a great fan of racing at Thirsk, so its gd/sft more likely heavy, put up earlier they put out a message dont let the rain put you off bring your umbrella saw that about noon and would imagine its rained all day according to the local Calender weather report it has been raining all over Yorkshire all day and Lincolnshire is flooding lot of worried people and heavy rain again tomorrow.
        No doubt it will be Firm at Haydock tomorrow.
        Colin

        1. Yep, well to an extent you have to trust the clerks… they were not anticipating much rain and the clerk updated the going as per the BHA site at 5.30 pm, where they’d had only 2mm all day, and it’s officially good to soft. Looking at the times of the first 3 races, they would back up this official going description, so as I type it’s not soft+ as yet.
          Surely Haydock will be an absolute bog! But yea, they may try and get away with calling it soft haha.
          Josh

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