Members Daily Post: 10/06/19 (complete)

Nick’s tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS    

Stratford

None

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FLAT

Leicester

None

 

Pontefract

8.05 –

Highly Sprung   (3yo+,micro class)  w2  I1 15/2 S6 

Round The Island   (all Hc’s,m dist and class) 10/1 

8.35 –

Valley Of Fire   (3yo+,m class) G1 10/1 S6 

Penny Pot Lane   (all Hc’s,m dist and class) H3 8/1 

9.05 –

Suitcase n Taxi   (m -class) 25/1 

Shepherds Purse   (m dist and going IF soft) G3  10/1 

 

Windsor

7.45 – C’Est No Mour   (all Hc’s) H3 15/2 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/71, 23p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

None, no 3m+ chases.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

6.35 Ponte – Michael’s Mount – 1 point EW – 7/1 (bet365/SB) 13/2 (BV) 6/1 (gen) WON 13/2 (dec) > 9/2  , +8.125

8.05 Ponte – Round The Island – 1 point EW – 10/1 (Bet365/WH/BV) (1/5,4p WH/BV) UP -2 

that’s all, as of 08.01. 

1/2,1p, +6.125 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.45 Strat – Foxy Lass

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Handicap Chase Starting Points 

3.45 Strat – Hurricane Rita / Khairagash

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.15 Strat – Uno Mas

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

50 Responses

  1. Colins bets update Jan/Feb normally make 90/100 points on the AW over these 2 months, slowly recovering
    Jan SP – 26.87 BOG -19.40
    Feb SP -17.50 BOG -14.00
    Mar SP + 6.625 BOG + 12.583
    Apr SP – 12.75 BOG – 9.662
    May SP + 10.25 BOG + 27.191
    Total SP – 40.245 BOG – 3.288 June SP -10.5 BOG – 10.00
    ELITE
    Jan SP + 14.384 BOG + 26.50
    Feb SP + 7.708 BOG + 18.725
    Mar SP – 12.341 BOG – 2.625
    Apr SP + 46.833 BOG + 52.833
    May SP – 14.417 BOG – 3.70
    Total SP + 42.167 BOG + 91.283 June SP – 8.75 BOG -6.167
    NEW METHOD
    Started 1st March old method i used 30 years ago same as Elite had a look at them and decided to give them both ago again.
    Mar SP + 19.283 BOG + 37.851
    Apr SP -24.25 BOG – 5.342
    May SP – 5.63 BOG + 2.933
    Total SP – 10.967 BOG + 35.784 June SP -17.00 BOG – 12.00.
    Phew that is all three upto date and always put SP to show why bookmakers use restrictions and what a difference from Jan to end of May all three added together.
    SP – 9.045 BOG + 123.779 amazing isnt it this is one reason that i can hardly bet with any bookmaker other than the odd £5 ew on my golf bets.
    Colin

    1. Colin,
      my records show that you had a big day sometime at the end of April in regard to the Elite tips and was for around 40 points. My experience of profit in any year is that over 50% of it is made from a few big days each year, in multiple bets as winners accumulate and so there is a big payout. I was talking to a guy the other day who I know through another site, who was telling me that every Saturday he has a £5 each way Yankee or Canadian on their selections. So say he lays out £10K a year. The Saturday before last the site hit three winners and two seconds from five selections and he picked up £17K.
      Until you keep accurate figures and, to boost potential profits, put in a number of multiples, you will find it hard to build up decent profit figures in my view.
      2019 seems to have been a hard year for tipsters full stop compared to 2018.

      1. Martin
        not a clue where you are coming from for all my bets are single wins never do multiples, on Elite it has had 3 winning months out of 5 and the 2 losing months only lost 6.325 so this is outstanding.
        Notice you only decided to quote SP in April and on any of your bets you quote Matchbox fantasy price where there is only £25 in the pot my bets are put out at a time when the majority can achieve the price not the individual.
        For accurate records please do not go there and insult my intelligance for i may go down the avenue of putting them up the night before no doubt i could claim bigger profits by doing this.
        Elite said before observed them for the last 2 years before deciding to put them up and in both years there have been 40/1 each year along with several 20/1 winners your choice if you follow them for they are FREE.
        Do not know why i bother to pass on my experiences and knowledge for only ever been ridiculed on here, going for a walk and a think.

        1. Colin,

          you’ve missed the point of Martin’s harmless musings and got the wrong end of the stick… all he was saying was… well, to my eyes anyway and how I read it…

          1. as a general viewpoint from his experience, over 50% of profit in any given year is often made from a few big days… everything else he then says is in that context…
          2. he noted Elite had a massive day some time in April… in that context…
          3. a recent example from elsewhere…
          4. The inference… well it could be the case that some of your methods, inc Elite, have some very big days, every now and then throughout a year, and if that’s the case, it can open up options with fun multiples etc (the discussion of multiples is for another day!)
          4. His comment about record keeping wasn’t about your general efforts, I took it as more a musing/idea in the sense that if you knew that there were a few big days of profit a year (ie come end of year 50% of profit came from 10-15 betting days) , you’d have more knowledge in which to ponder betting strategy (ie fancy/fun multiples every now and then to really boost profits, or send you to the poor house!)

          That’s all there was to it. Nothing more, nothing less.

          The area for debate is around multiples etc! But I won’t go there, i’ve always been a strict singles punter bar the odd small multiple flutter, but that’s a ripe topic for discussion.

          Josh

          p.s martin clearly has his own view on what decent profit levels look like etc and how they can be achieved. If as a portfolio they were pulling in 200 points a year i’d view that as very good going, or 50-100 points per method to 10am 1 point win prices would be good.

          1. I’m a big fan of the multiple as I’ve mentioned! About 90% of my profit has come from a few multiples (trixies). Can we have the multiple chat soon please?! Barney curley in his book reckons it’s the only way to make proper money these days if I remember correctly.

          2. Josh is spot on with what I was trying to say. I am sorry if it was taken in the wrong way, as i tried to be as clear as possible without going on too long. Each to their own in how they bet and it makes no difference to me. I was just stating what I know from the time I spend working with others and my own experiences that
            multiples do pay and can significantly add to a profit margin in nay year. Single betting is a bit of a slog and it is hard to accumulate significant profits that way. However a steady profit can be made that way if selections are reasonably profitable. I personally think it is best to have both in your betting on horse racing.

          3. I’ve done a e/w super yankee on all of Colin’s selection today, as sods law says they will all at least place LOL

          4. Important also to say that multiples don’t need to be placed on the same day (unless you’re running in to accumulated amounts that you can’t get on).

            Most of my own bets are from trainers records or a couple of tipsters I follow, both trainers and tipsters seem to hit purple patches and barren periods and I’ll often play some small doubles and trebles over consecutive days when they hit a purple patch.

      2. I suspect I did the same £5 ew Canadian ! From the same tipping company, one more winner would have very interesting. I use one in the winter , and a few times we have had great days on multiple bets

  2. The three bets i put up today about 10am just after.
    Ptarmigan Ridge 6/1 to 4/1 ran last
    Indian Temple 12/1 to 7/1 Won
    Presence Felt 4/1 to 3/1 last
    From above figures most that what i put up are backed! has the case today, and why are they backed, will blow my own trumpet for i am a very good judge and read between the lines, the methods are not cast in stone they are just a starting point and will do research from the lists of runners they produce.
    Colin.

    1. Well done Colin. The portfolio is ticking along well.
      To confirm…are all three methods based on some sort of systematic approach to get a long list before you use your own subjective judgement? I was under impression a few of them were rules based and that was that but I must have got the wrong end of the stick. 🙂 I’m mildly surprised that methods from so long ago still work but clearly they do. Keep up the good work.

      1. No system can work blind for say an horse won four times on Firm ground how can you back it to win on soft when it is not proven on the ground, again class is important it will always win at some stage if it is in its right grade, 6 year old on the flat going up two classes very doubtful it can improve mostly only look at 3 and 4 year olds going up in class for there can be improvement, distance has it won over it if going up a furlong in most cases the trainer does not know until it has won and proven it gets the distance.
        Draw very important and it is not just Chester many courses it is important especially over sprint distances and this factor is often overlooked.
        Clive Holt book be a successful punter covers all the basics and they are very basic ideas which have stood the test of time, lost mine in a move or someone nicked it! it is a wonderful idiot guide which his principles have guided me over the years and it is all commonsence.
        The methods are all mine but check those principals meet the criterea before i back them.
        Colin

        1. Good Morning Colin, I trust you and all other members of RTP are well. Just FYI I have,today, bought a slightly used copy of Clive Holts book for just £2.19(inc.P&P) from my favourite online seller Abebooks.co.uk . More copies are available, similarly priced. It’s a cracking site. You can obtain almost any book there for a few quid and in my experience the service is first class. Have a good day everyone. Regards, Will.

          1. Will
            trust it had the red cover for he wrote a number of books sure gave you the correct title, would not bother about the others.
            The main chapter is proven and progressive etc, there is a lot of padding to justify the price when first published.
            £2.19 you should find it a bargain and the simplicity of his thoughts are amazing, thanks for letting me know that you purchased it, good to hear someone has heeded the advice, let me know what you think in a few days.
            Colin.

          2. Hello again Colin, Thank you for your prompt reply. Be A Successful Punter: With Fineform as your guide, is the full title of the book I ordered. I hope that’s the right one, otherwise I’m £2.19 down. Ha! I think I can live with that. I meant that more copies of the self same book are available on that site if any other members interest has been
            piqued by your post. I’ll be happy to let you know how I get on with it in a few days.
            All the very best Colin, Will.

          3. You are most welcome Colin. As I said before, Abebooks is a cracking site no matter what you’re looking for. Will.

          4. I’d never heard of the website before. We can compare notes after we’ve read the book!

  3. Today’s post is about the 6.15 at Windsor where Swinley is the favourite. I am way behind on editing photos and writing reports. Unfortunately life has been getting in the way, restricting the time I can devote to 2yo racing and I do not feel as if I have got a proper grip on the shape of the season this year. I will still post sporadically as and when I can later in the year.

    I have posted below the report from his debut behind Wild Thunder at Goodwood. He wasn’t fully fit on that day and looks a good thing here albeit he is dropped a furlong. I have seen the second favourite Eton College and he is very ordinary.

    The dangers on my ratings are Fantom Force, Forgetful Agent and Hard Nut.

    With Fantom Force drawn 1 and Swinley two it looks as if they should have it between them but I am fairly optimistic about Swinley and 3’s available on Betfair looks good value to me. Main caveat is that Shane Kelly is limited as a 2yo jockey imo but he gets the job done often enough not to worry too much here from a good draw.

    Here is the review from Goodwood.
    Goodwood 23rd May 6f Novice
    This looked a decent heat in the paddock. Activius is the only one seen out since and he was fairly poor so mixed messages.
    Here are the pictures: https://imgur.com/a/eEsc2Bd
    1. Wild Thunder- Despite his coltiness, he never got upset or noisy. Most of Hannon’s ftos this season have not looked ready but #Wild Thunder was strong and fully fit with ribs apparent and good muscle definition. I have looked at his picture next to Threat’s (100). Hannon’s other fto winner that I’ve seen so far and they are different types. I don’t think Wild Thunder has quite as much potential. 90
    2. Buhturi – Good looking smaller model. Looked very fit. Missed break, ran free but competed for win. Definite nto winner.87
    3. Clan Royale was the only one with previous form and was put in at 1/3. He is a bit long backed and not quite coupled as well as most of these. Ran ok but limited 78
    4. Well made strong and ok size but not fit enough to challenge for the win. Certainly not a 50/1 shot in this field. Beaten 5.25 lengths. Improve considerably nto 78
    5. Subutai – Small neater type 73
    6. Activius – Ok size, a bit light behind and ultimately well beaten 70
    7. Rain Cap – Has been beaten again since at Lingfield. Not a bad smaller model and will presumably go handicapping. Ran green here. MAY WELL BE GETTING READY TO SNEAK IN OFF A LOW WEIGHT ON HIS 4TH RUN.
    A few here worth following and may turn out to have been a decent race.

    Hugh

    1. If it continues to rain today then stalls 1 + 2 will not be so great as they will go centre to far side.

    2. Well, Swinley ended up fantastic value at 6/1, beat all the fancied ones but got nutted on the line by an outsider. My inclination is to think that Shane Kelly used up a bit too much too early but that is probably pocket talk.
      Hugh

  4. this morning just gets worse, i have been locked out of my sky email account all i get is:
    Account problem
    We apologise for the inconvenience, but we have encountered a problem with your account.
    Please contact 03442411280 for further assistance.
    not open until 9-00 am so if anyone with sp2a can forward today’s email to mjwhittle59@gmail.com i would be grateful.

    1. I am in OK, they must be picking on you? They do limit me though. When you do multiples they tend to get itchy with you when potential winning are £5K plus.
      Bet365 let me have a go with such bets over £20K.

  5. I have experienced problems logging into Betdaq via the Epic Browser so have had to switch to using my Nord VPN account where access is granted…seems a general problem when bookmaking sites “upgrade”…my brother in law uses Ladbrokes shops and they have recently banned putting on certain kinds of bets which he has been winning on a regular basis and have notified other Ladbrokes outlets in the area he lives in and refused to pay him out at his local branch when he placed his bets at another Ladbrokes before they put the word out so all in all they just a bunch of greedy ba*****s who only want losers…there is also a dispute bookies are having with SIS that relates to dog racing and will not accept bets from certain tracks, so when bookmakers “upgrade” beware…

    1. I had the same problem with BETFAIR when I used the epic browser, they locked me out!! It was a right pain to get back in and reset my account, new e-mail address new password. I missed a few trades whilst sorting it all out. 😉

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 2.45 – Boutan on 5th run @ 7
    BRT
    R 7.25 – De Name Escapes Me on 2nd run @ 20
    3m+
    S 3.15 – Sporting Boy on 5th run @ 25

  7. COLINS BETS
    3.45 Stratford Hurricane Rita BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.45 Stratford Little Stevie BOG 10/1
    7.35 Pontefract Sleeping Lion BOG 6/1
    8.35 Pontefract Tricky Dicky BOG 3/1
    NEW METHOD
    6.00 Leicester Lonicera BOG 6/1
    Colin

  8. Hi all, todays three!!

    STRATFORD 16:15 SCOTSBROOK NIGHT
    PONTEFRACT 18:05 HOLLYWOOD WALTZ
    WINDSOR 19:15 TAWNY PORT

    G.L. 🙂

  9. Selection of bets NOT in the Tipping Comp although GA and CU were on the short list
    8.05 P Uncle Charlie
    5.30 L Uncle Norman
    Old Red Eyes
    6.35 P General Allenby
    St Andrews
    7.35 P Claire Underwood
    4.00 L Blood Eagle

    Mike

  10. New Look Silver…my opinion of winner first then the rambling “boring”.. bit of how I arrived at the “selection”..

    Leic. 3.30. Getchagetchagetcha. win only.
    4.30. Vasiliev to win, Al Murieb ( bet win only without the fav) and Baalbek to place e/w or place only.
    Wind. 6.15. Eton College to win….Diligent Deb to outrun the odds to place.

    Well, here comes the analysis.
    Leic. 3.30 Not a great race and with only 5 runners not any e/w value and Getcha has the best adjusted speed and as a 3 year old has some progression and was described as keeping on the final furlong when running at 9f so a bit of chance at the prices that the horse will get the distance…it is entirely up to you whether you consider this a bet or not, or more comfortable saving your money for something you are more sure of.

    Leic. 4.30. Again pretty crap C4 maiden with a moderate bunch of under achievers but with a few more runners an e/w option in the form of Baalbek presents some value….the fav Vasiliev is too short for me to bet but is the most likely winner, but at the odds with favs only being 38% win not a choice…the other horse Al Mureib represents a stable that does well here and they run Ghaly…the latter may well run ok at a bigger price but the horses figures suggest it will do well to place so have discounted that one…the e/w option I have chosen in Baalbeck will hopefully be good enough to place and at 25/1 represents a 5/1 shot one fifth the odds.

    Wind 6.15. The best race of the day as far as I am concerned as the pedigrees on display are very good. Eton College clocked a very good speed of 37.87 mph over 6.05f in a C4 at Windsor from stall 12 which on debut is impressive…Swinley is no slouch clocking 37.11 over 6f at Gdwd in a C4 and should give Eton the most to do…Diligent Deb was chosen on the basis of pedigree and price….others to note are the Hannon runners….trainer loves winners at this track and both on pedigree would have a chance…Dark Silver would be a vanity choice!! but will be better over longer I think…promises to be a very competitive race and hopefully the form should be worth following.

    Hope the new format works ok…let me know if not and will try and incorporate ideas.

    1. much improved!! 🙂 Oh the boring bit is the best bit haha, but at times I did struggled to work out what your conclusions were/how you were attacking them. That’s much clearer, and much appreciated. Best of luck.

      1. You think you had problems…..that stuff is in my head and I am perfectly sober!…Glad things are a bit clearer.

    2. well Diligent Deb did better than place….won at SP 14/1 so gratifying I got the pedigree correct…hope someone did the horse e/w.

  11. just 1 selection today
    Leicester 6-00. Lonicera 6-1 1pt win

    there’s a few at big prices i’m going to have some 5p ew multiples on for a bit of fun.
    Leicester.
    3-00. Tarrzan 20-1
    4-00. Amjaady 20-1
    5-00. Quixopte 28-1
    5-30. Uncle Norman 14-1
    Stratford.
    2-45. Hurricane Vic 14-1 ( have had a couple of quid to win on Mr Lando 6-1)
    3-45. Foxy Lass 20-1

  12. Trying something new. Always wanted to see if the way I look at races in level weights and conditional stakes races at grades of C4 and above works at the international level as this offers more opportunities when the quality is not in the UK and Ireland all the time. Problem is getting accurate course and distance times. i.e the time of the race set against the standard time for the course over a given distance…USA tracks do not provide the info free, as most use Beyer speed figures and would like “free” but unlike UK info provided free by Racing Post is impossible to come by, so bit hit and miss and a deal of guesswork required to get an accurate handle on the comparative speeds over different distance and tracks…where I can reasonable feel confident about the accuracy of the information I base assessments on will post the international analysis, which will probably be mainly France and Meydan as and when fancied races are running…today there are three at Longchamp to look at below but CAUTION..WATCHING BRIEF ONLY NO BETS ADVISED AS EXPERIMENTAL TEST.

    Longchamp. 1.35. Edisa win only current price betfair exchange 5.2
    3.25. Suphala win only ” 2.5
    4.00. Soliel Marin win only ” 3.05

    Short prices on all three.
    1.35…Longchamp…Edisa ran an average race over 10.5f in a time of 36.06 mph…. Shafia ran at Angers where there is no standard course time by which to assess that run in relation to the standard time for the distance at that track so the figure is “raw” but was slower than Edisa when projected …Lady Te and Golden Box ran ok speeds in comparison to Edisa and would not be surprised if they ran well…with only seven runners no e/w value.

    Longchamp… 3.25.Suphala to win ….Alzire’s figure “raw” as no standard time for comparison ran over 8f in a speed of 34.26 mph….considering the average is 36.74 mph struggling to understand the price of 4.7 on the exchange…Hermiona and Simplicity may out run their odds.

    Longchamp…4.00…Soliel Marin has the best figures with Royal Julius and Dancetaria as the value in the race.

    1. Two winners in Edisa and Suphala with Danceteria winning as a horse that was mentioned as being value, so looks as if the methodology is transferable and encouraging going forwards for non UK selections….Getchgetchgetcha also a winner at 4/1…disappointing with the 4.30 at Leics with a newcomer doing the two I put up…just waiting on the 6.15 and hope there is little or no rain.

  13. Only the one for this afternoon but the evening meetings look more interesting so check the update at 4.30 if you’re following ’em.

    Leic’ 4.00 Canal Rocks…………6.0 NF HCP

  14. Josh just seen this tweeted by Nicky Richards, maybe explains run, personally i think he was over the top.
    “Caius ran another solid race today beaten by a decent horse having his 1st start over fences. Chidswell was a bit disappointing but Craig through track was to sharp for him.”

    1. cheers… well the fact he bled after Aye (which I didn’t know pre race annoyingly) would suggest that he may now have issues when coming under the pump- those last three races may well have taken everything out of him – albeit while I thought that may be a risk, the 57 days off I thought was a sign that this had been a plan/freshened up, and he’d performed well after similar breaks before. Anyway, he’s clearly one to treat with caution now. The Grimthorpe was the one to get him on, and if he wins again i doubt i’ll be on.
      I don’t want to blame the track albeit that was a fear – he travelled and jumped well through first half and he cut out/stopped in a way which doesn’t make me think he couldn’t keep up – but maybe he was going faster than ideal/didn’t like the place. That is three poor runs there now so probably best leaving him if he turns up there ever again, which he probably won’t.

  15. Lambourn
    Very quite at the moment Hills and Hughes not come on site yet, noticed a couple of times when Hughes not put up any views they do not tend to win.
    Jamie Osbourne no runners today, again must have been horrifying to have you house burn down whilst in bed, no excuse Jamie get the entries in!!!
    Henry Candy not a fan of his, noticed today he mentions 5 of his 6 runners but not Lonicera in the 6.00 maybe not allowed by the owners is it fancied who knows, have already put it up has a New Method bet so hopeful they fancy it.
    Rember when in with Willie McFarland he had a lad in Candy’s yard and one day he had 4 winners and guess who had the loser us, had several discussions about the info from that yard with Willie for it was not good.
    Will be intresting to see how his runners go today especially Lonicera.
    Colin

  16. Wind’ 6.15 Dark Silver……….. 10.0 No HCP
    Pont’ 7.05 Golden Circle…….. 8.0 NF HCP

    Was expecting more from the non hcp races but wasn’t to be.

  17. Had a look at tomorrows racing but nothing worth looking and same Wednesday so back later in the week.

  18. I’m really not understanding how Princes des Sables in the 7:05 at Pontefract is 18.0 so I’ve had a poke at it.

  19. At 8.30 365 pushed Nick’s winner out to 15/2. Good to see that one hold on for the win and change his luck

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