Members Daily Post: 09/06/19 (complete)

Daily tips x1, Nick’s Tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Perth

2.45 –

Copper West   (micro Class)  w2 H1 I1 11/4 

Suneststorise   (HcCh) 4/1 

4.25 – Out Sam   (HcCh,m age) 8/1 

5.00 – Darling Miss   (m runs) H3 6/4 

 

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FLAT

Goodwood

2.00 – Beauty Filly   (all Hc’s) I3 8/1 

2.30 – War Brigade   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 4/1 S3A

3.40 – Suegioo   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H1 13/2 S3A S6 UP

4.10 –

Double Up   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 11/1 S3A

Boy In The Bar   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 6/1 S3A

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/71, 23p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

4.25 Perth – Chidswell – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) PU – hmm, an annoying result in sense I was right to take on all those at single figures but picked the wrong one to do so. The selection hasn’t run his race and maybe those last 3 runs have taken their toll/their is an issue. Apparently he bled at Ayr which I wasn’t aware of pre race, and I don’t think conditions have beat him today. Maybe he doesn’t like the place but he went well enough/held position until final circuit. The winner…  well he was in form, had the pace to get the lead and is a decent jumper who likes the track. All of that has helped. I had a stamina doubt about him, esp with so many pace pushers, but he’s seen it out well – it would appear that he may want further than 2 1/2 now on that evidence, maybe finding younger legs a bit too speedy over shorter these days. You couldn’t conclusively say he wouldn’t stay, but I thought they’d be a few stronger stayers. But many in that haven’t run too well. His last 2 RPRs have only been surpassed once in his career, so he was in fine fettle. Pipes is a bit of a monkey when having to battle I think, certainly on that evidence, and the more resolute horse won. A few things to take away/ponder from that for me, analysis wise. 

that’s all for this race, 09.55, write up to follow 

This is an open looking contest and not one where you can be overly dogmatic on anything really. However, there was only one horse that jumped off the page to my eyes as being overpriced. I can’t work out why Chidswell is 14/1 here, unless he’s lost a leg since his Scottish National effort. That run was decent enough to a point before the relentless pace took it’s toll, and he didn’t stay. This is no Scottish National. Were he arriving here on the back of his Grimthorpe demolition job (his stablemate fell at the last in that but he had him well beat also) he’d be an 8s shot in this, or even a tad shorter. Clearly he may not be in the same form now but the 57 day break, and the fact he’s yet to go on his summer holidays, makes me think this may have been pencilled in for some time. Those two wins before his trip to Ayr were getting on for career bests over fences, and Donny was a career best over that distance. He’s clearly been hard to train at times in his life but it appears 3m-3m2f may be his trip now and it’s not impossible there is more to come over this distance. He won’t mind what the ground is, albeit it may be no worse than GS depending on how bad the showers are (if they materialise) and there’s a fair bit of pace on paper to sit behind here. Now they know he stays I hope they don’t hold him up out that back. That is never the place to be around here. He’s a slight question over going this way round and the track but they are more than built into his odds. 

I just can’t work out why he’s so big, but maybe i’ll find out soon enough! 

Everything else looked around the right price to me. The exception may be Out Sam for Gordon Elliot but I was a tad on the fence. If he repeated that Gowran run he’d take some stopping in this race I suspect but he’s a bit hit and miss and has been on the go for a while. The more rain the better for him. At the prices he’s probably the one I fear having got wrong, and while he will find this easier than recent assignments he’s got the odd question. He may make 8s looks decent, we shall see. I wouldn’t put anyone off a nibble. 

Of the rest.. well Get Out The Gate may be the most interesting horse for the future  and he’s been impressive the last twice (inc on the figures). However softer ground is a question and his jumping will be under more pressure here in this field. He could win well but he can beat me at 11/2 in this line up. As can Cresswell Legen, he isn’t overpriced for me and has the odd question also but is unexposed. You wouldn’t be shocked if any of them took this today really. Van Gogh Du Granit doesn’t owe us anything but again 6s felt about right. I can’t have Dragon DEstruval at 7s for a few reasons and Red Giant (another recent winner for us) is up 8lb, up in class and there’s a concern over the going. I can leave him at 7s also. Got Away didn’t feel overpriced either especially as she was fresh enough LTO and was out-stayed. She was 13/2 or so when I looked and is on the drift a tad. I didn’t think that price was big enough for one with unproven stamina and into a deeper race. If she settles better she may see this out and her trainer thinks she’ll stay, but it’s still a question. She probably does stay, just whether something stays more thoroughly. Indian Temple has a big stamina question and I think he may find this hot enough. As will Traditional Dancer who’s got a ground question, is inconsistent, will be held up out the back and is into a much deeper race up 9lb. However he was impressive enough LTO .I suppose i’ve seen worse 16s shots and he’s a LTO winner. A decent run wouldn’t surprise me, but a victory would. 

This race should be run at a decent gallop with a few who like to get on with it/push the pace. Hopefully Chidswell can hold a position behind it and just pop away, staying on best over the last 2/3 fences. With any luck I get a run for my money. There isn’t a result that will surprise me in this really but none of the ‘shorties’ jumped out at their prices. I’ve no doubt got one of them wrong.  

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

4.10 Goodw – Sir Titan – 1 point EW – 12/1 (bet365/betfS/BV) 11/1 (gen) 

that’s all for today, 09.32 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning trainers

4.25 Perth – Traditional Dancer / Red Giant 

Trainer to follow

3.20 Perth – Goldencard 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. Hurrah another Class 2 Hcp chase…The flat still seems to baffle me and I will leave it for Nick et al to bimble along with that one till the cows come home, or, the NH horses come back on the scene!
    So, onto today’s fayre..
    16:25 Perth
    GOT AWAY 13/2 365, gen 6/1 1pt win
    What you need to formulate here is , which of these will go in this ground, it is forecast Good to soft, but, will come up softer and softer as the day goes on! Got Away has won on that type of ground and been placed round here, which will give him a distinct advantage when the chips are down! Should ride up with the pace and remain handy all the way round, value at the price and we should get a run for our money!
    VAN GOGH DU GRANIT 6/1 gen 1pt win
    Another who should go well on the course and the more easier surface, most of the others apart from OUT SAM and Dragon D`estruval haven`t really done as well on the softer surface and VGDG will also be up with the pace and hopefully, so long as Mr Noonan doesn`t kick for home too soon, we should see the 3/4 mentioned here battling it out, with OUT SAM and D/D`estruval missing out hopefully!

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are tomorrow!

  2. Colin…… Not so much amendments more a change of strategy. I thought you had been following the ‘saga’ this past couple of months. The original idea was good but there were too many cases of more than one horse in the same race, 3 and 4 were common place with the occasional 5 not unheard of. As you know I’m not a fan of taking several horses in the same race so I reluctantly decided to use a form approach to solve the problem. The rest I know you do know as you contributed to the discussion where I trashed the whole concept of form due to the reasons we both discussed along with Josh.

    The version I’m running now is a no form alternative based upon the original which almost completely solves the multiple runners problem. I say almost because there will be occasions where there will be 2 in the same race but so far as you can see, it has been very successful in that respect. As for the results so far there’s been a couple of winners and some fairly long odds placed. Thursday we had a 12.5 3rd, 15.5 2nd, 18.9 3rd and a 15.0 3rd, then a 7.9 win. If I was posting them as each way pokes people would be more than happy with the action so far. TBH I’m not unhappy Colin as long as I keep getting places I know that the good times aren’t too far away. This version is the final version and will continue to run as it is.

    Silver…… It doesn’t take any past form of the runners into account but you have to bear in mind that these novices have only had a handful of runs with the maximum set at 9. Most are between the 5 and 7 mark but it’s far too early in their career to determine as to whether any particular set of conditions can be ruled out.

    1. The reason I asked is because you mentioned that some results are course related with some being better than others…have you been able to identify the reason for this?….in my own calculations I have to factor in course adjustments as each course runs differently so just wondered if you are able to identify the reason in your way of looking at this, that’s all….

      1. It’s still early days really As although I’ve got a decent sample size of races since 2015 once you filter it down to individual courses you’ve only got around 200 – 250 races per track. The methodology is based upon Proform’s track classifications where individual tracks are grouped into Easy, Galloping, Galloping/Undulating, Sharp, Sharp/Undulating, Stiff, Stiff/Undulating, and Undulating courses. When you compare the official going with the actual going on this basis no particular group appears to be disadvantaged even though the differences between what gets put into the form book (official) and the reality (actual), can some times be frighteningly different.

        It’s only when you get down to course level where some tracks appear to show significant differences on heavy going. I’ve decided to put it down to sample size for now as a couple of hundred races isn’t enough given that some of these tracks have hardly had any heavy ground meetings at all, but it is most likely that there will be the odd bogey track with poor drainage or something that will prove to be the exception in the longer term I expect. Fortunately heavy ground conditions aren’t as frequent as you might think on the flat so I don’t think it’s too much to worry about in the long term.

        It was Nick’s ‘bingo’ comment that spooked me a little into thinking that it was something I should really check out just to be cautious, but it was a reasonable comment to make at the time, so I’m not whinging.

        1. Many thanks for taking the time to explain…all the best with the revisions and looking forward to the results.

          1. I’m done with revisions, it’s like I said to Colin. It’s gonna run as it is now. At least for the rest of this season. 😉

    2. Tim , have you looked into the possibility of doing 1pt win bet and a 1pt place bet to avoid longer losing runs? I’m just wondering if it would still show a decent profit as I know the place prices you get on the exchange aren’t always brilliant….

      1. I haven’t done that Stan cos as you say exchange place prices are generally very poor. I’m fairly certain it would stand up at bookies odds, but then you would have to accept taking the knock on the winners.

        My experience whether bookies or exchange is that place betting only serves to wipe its face really so I guess I’m in J Dub’s camp on this one.

  3. just a few small ew’s today, price has gone on a couple but these are the prices i got last night.
    Goodwood.
    2-30. Stormingin 12-1, Lyrica’s Lion 14-1
    3-40.Imphal 14-1
    4-10. Fantasy Keeper 8-1
    Perth.
    4-25. Indian Temple 12-1

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    G 4.10 – Sir Titan on 8th run @ 14
    BRT
    P 4.25 – Indian Temple on 2nd run @ 12
    3m+
    P 4.25 – Childswell on 1st run @ 14

  5. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Goodwood Ptarmigan Ridge BOG 6/1
    NEW METHOD
    4.25 Perth Indian Temple BOG 12/1
    5.00 Perth Presence Felt BOG 4/1
    Colin

  6. Chidswell never won right handed, and not over rating 127. 2 runs at Perth not great.

    1. In my view they were not reasons to be put off at 14s. He’s only had 5 goes RH over fences and most of those had valid excuses. the PU here is a concern but he was hampered first that day then made a bad error and never really in a rhythm. Maybe he will get outpaced again, we shall see. I thought his form before National were two of his best ever over fences, which coincides with decent ground /23f+. This mark wouldn’t have stopped him at Donny imo. And he’s lightly raced over this trip over fences. And given he’s never run off 134 (it’s a career high) no one can say he can’t win from this mark. He hasn’t had a chance to show if he can or not.
      Also every horse in this is well above their last winning mark. Something is going to step forward /defy a rise etc. I personally couldn’t get myself to a place with all those around 6s this morning where I wanted to back one of them. Maybe Red Giant builds on his win here LTO. Or Pipes runs his race again and that’s enough. It feels very open to me hence I wanted to take a poke on one. No doubt he’ll never be travelling /hit one/outpaced, but no idea what then will take this really. Was a head scratcher of a race! Hopefully if I havent landed on winner Stewart has. We shall see soon.

        1. you noticed Mark and Indian Temple was backed from 12/1 to 7/1 from the price that was available at 10am ish when put up after the markets had settled and most non runners are through and most can have a decent wedge on, provided you still have bookmakers accounts.
          Colin.
          PS thought you had disappeared or joined George in France, look forward to your mussings over the AW in the future.

          1. Ha, no still here in Blighty Colin. Not putting up anymore AW stuff as not as good without George B ‘s longlists 🙂

            He is fine by the way and sends his regards to all on here.

            Well done today.

    1. There’s always some method to the madness haha. That result is annoying..in sense proved right to take on the ‘shorties’ but have picked wrong outsider. Darn. Didn’t think he’d see that trip out at what I thought would be a strong pace /no easy lead for him. Clearly his older legs prob want that now, getting outpaced by younger legs over shorter. Tipped him at Aintree two starts back as lively outsider 66s where he came down at the first. Bugger.

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