Members Daily Post: 08/06/19 (complete)

Nick’s tips x4, Section 1 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc


1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs



1.25 – Poets Dawn   (3yo+,micro runs)  10/1 

3.45 – Twin Appeal   (m class) 14 8/1 

4.20 –

Ideal Candy   (m class) 14 G1 11/2 

Bollin Jean   (m age)  ES+ 12/1 S3A UP

Bit Of A Quirke   (4yo+,m dist) H3 G3 9/1 



4.10 – Reflektor   (all Hc’s) 18/1 UP


Newmarket (July)

5.35 – Stylehunter   (all Hc’s) 14,30  w2 H3 4/1 



6.00 – Khismet   (m class) 14 33/1 

6.30 – Essenaitch   (m age) 7/2 

8.00 –

Air Of York   (m age) 14 w2 8/1 

Another Boy   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 12/1 S3A 

8.30 –

Quantum Dot   (all Hc’s)  ES+

Swanton Blue   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 7/1 S3A



8.15 –

Buridan   (all Hc’s) H3 I1 9/4 

Tomily   (all Hc’s) G3 16/1 




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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/70, 23p +24.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

None, no jumps racing.


3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

1.25 Bev – Love Dreams – 1.5 win – 4/1 (gen) WON +6 

2.10 Newm – Blown By Wind – 1 point EW – 7/1 (gen) (1/5,4p SB/PP) 2nd, +0.75

3.55 Newm – Aces – 1 point EW – 11/1 (BV) 10/1 (gen) (1/5,4p gen) UP, -2

4.10 Hayd – Reflektor – 1 point EW – 18/1 (gen) UP, -2

1/4,2p, +2.75


that’s all today, as of 10.15 


Love Dreams-consistent, drops in class 2/4, 3p in c3 with the 2 non-wins both a length or less off breaks, good draw and should get his own way out front and never see another rival

Blown-another front/prominent runner; has some excellent 2yr old form; solid Re-appearance run; has won on fast and heavy

Aces-back below last winning mark; Moore back on for first time since last win; headgear returns for the first time this year with cheekpieces also added; won over track last year; won’t mind ground; prominent runner

Reflektor-excellent record on soft ground; has ran well on the aw and didn’t get any luck at Chester; trainer has excellent record at the track; Frankie 1/2 for trainer; looks to be one of the few pace angles so I’m hoping Frankie kicks on from the front.


4.Micro System Test Zone



5.Any general messages/updates etc

For those of you interested… I am busy finishing off a ‘report’ which may give you ideas for how to attack the Flat stats content as starting points, if you wish 🙂

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. a quick warning for anyone getting bets on early there is no way Beverley will be good/firm, heavy rain late yesterday afternoon and on into evening with more forecast today. my best guess would be good/soft and soft by last race.

    1. They’re saying they only got 4mm last night so maybe they missed it since that wouldn’t have changed it much so was thinking on the softer side of good although in fairness mine will be fine on soft.

        1. can’t believe they missed yesterdays downpour we had about 4mm in the first half hour in in lasted 6 hours

  2. hopefully a week off looking at the races will have refreshed my brain but it’s doubtful.
    today’s selections.
    3-00. Tarboosh 9-2 1pt win
    3-35. Breton Rock 15-2 1/2 pt ew 4 places
    1-25. Rousayah 6-1 1pt win money back if 2nd.
    2-10. Regular 12-1 1/2 pt ew , first time visor, Athmad 16-1 1/4 pt ew down in grade. 4 places
    2-45. Fire Jet 20-1 1/2 pt ew 5 places
    7-45. Justice Lady 10-1 1/2 pt ew

  3. Bev 2.00….Favs 41% and Rose of Kildare a worthy fav on the figures I have and a good price too @ 10/3 currently..the mph is 38.33 which is above average for the distance (37.27)….so what can beat the fav?….on adjusted course and distance figures Liberty Beach comes close….the horse clocked 38.42 at Redcar which over 5f runs slightly faster than the Hamilton track that Rose ran and compared would have clocked 37.52 and ran in a class 5 as opposed to Rose running in a C4 LTO…..If you are considering Liberty Beach as an alternative to the fav then you have to consider Lady Quickstep which was only a 1/2l behind Liberty Beach…the latter was described as being one paced tholugh …I prefer descriptions as being run on, or quickened..especially over sprint distances. on good or good to firm going. Bella Brazil, Three coins and Execlusive should be in the mix and may improve past Lady Quickstep…Moon of Love is an unknown but pedigree is ok…Yarrow Gate for the trainer who won this race last year is, in my opinion, not fast enough to compete having run twice and clocked 35.09 and 36.11 mph so has a lot to make up with the fav and Liberty…so Liberty Beach e/w aagainst the fav at 15/2 currently looks like the value bet. gd lck

    1. Just seen Martins’s comments on Beverley going so this may impact on the above if the ground goes against the speedsters so suggest caution and check horses that handle the going on the sires side. Yarrow Gate has form on soft though the speed is slow and this may well bring that horse in the mix despite of the slow speed so far recorded….certainly have to factor Martin’s comments into any selections now…thanks for posting Martin.

  4. 2.25 Haydock…ground now described as heavy so may throw up a quirky result…cannot have the fav at such a short price as 28% of favs have won so should be around 5/2 around 3.50 decimal not 1.65…so anything to beat the fav or finish in the first three at decent odds….depends on the horse that handles the conditions best so anything could pop up…….more likely the contenders are Klassique, Pilaster, and Mrs Sippy..of the contenders to the fav prefer Klassique each way though the horse and Pilaster are closely matched on speed…Jedhi was 8l behind Klassique and has form on soft but not sure the horse will be good enough to compete..Dance Legend has run well in listed race at Kempton but not sure if this class rise will be suitable….so each way Klassique against the fav.

    3.45 Beverley Beverley Bullet BOG 10/1
    4.10 Haydock Growl BOG 15/2
    2.10 Flashcard BOG 6/1
    3.55 Spanish City BOG 9/2
    4.45 Phosphor BOG 9/1
    4.45 Glorious Emaraty BOG 25/1
    4.55 Beryl The Petal BOG 7/2
    6.30 Momentarily BOG 6/1
    Heavy night New method will be up shortly

  6. Betfair prices on Nicks tips
    Love Dreams 5.1 £615, 5.2 £523, 5.3 £97
    Blown By Wind 10.5 £31, 11.0 £41, 11.5 £18
    Aces 10.5 £22, 11.0 £81, 11.5 £18
    Reflektor 23.0 £15, 24.0 £7, 25.0 £18
    Intended to do this around 9.00am there is never any money in the pool so cannot understand where he is coming from ref the abuse to Betfair clients for they certainly are not affecting the prices of his bets.
    The big punter cannot bet with Betfair till close to the off and the price as long gone!
    So please do not blame us who have no choice but to bet on the Exchanges.

    1. I think you’e missed the point Colin, unless my understanding of the potential impact is wrong…

      the issue is the lack of liquidity and the fact that bookmakers prices are linked to exchange odds, mostly through bots i assume, and often they will be very close to exchange price, or below it, certainly in the evening before/morning, before better judgments can be made re the money they take. I know first hand from a friend who works in a growing firm that if they go bigger than the exchange at certain points all the arbing/trader bots/bettors steam in etc.

      The point is that within the first 20-40 mins of Nick’s tips going up, unless it’s a bit Saturday handicap race which has loads of liquidity in already, trying to match bets of 5/10/20 etc will help force the price down early, it really doesn’t take much from what i’ve seen, and that can force a price to be clipped in a few points. There are clearly other factors at play also

      But the point about betting on the exchange really is about the first 30 mins to 1 hour that they go up – if people launch into betfair then, trying to get amounts matched, or even setting price points to be matched, it will negatively affect it for everyone else before they have a chance to get on with bookies etc. After that initial window you can do as you please on betfair – well you can anyway obviously, at any time you wish, but there is some validity to those points above I believe.


      1. Appreciate all what you have to say however anyone putting bets up the night before or even by 9am on the day will be monitored closely by the bookmakers,when suddenly 200 bets are struck even a small ammount of money going onto one horse sticks out like a sore thumb and they will take action for they are not daft.
        Darren of Betting School who you know used to promote Public Enemy number 1 who always put their bets on the night before, do not know why they parted company but would imagine subscribers would not renew for they could not get any money on and the prices were cut way before the time span you have mentioned, and yes i did subscribe to them and had no chance of the price or getting £50 on, anyway ask Darren about them, and please pass on my good wishes to him for had a spell with them putting up my bets via another method which sadly as had its day for still not working.

        1. oh i agree with that, there are many factors at play, and in part why putting them up in the morning is better than the evening before- and sometimes a surge of activity in a given time will affect bookies directly (irrelevant of betfair) , albeit I doubt that is the case here , unless the odd marked account etc. the fact it is posted in a 15 min window and many will bet throughout the next 15/45 mins after posted probably helps.
          But i’m still convinced that betting on the machine, or too many people doing it even to small stakes, in the window after they are posted isn’t good for anyone – and often much of it won’t get matched at that time, but it doesn’t take much for price to clip in, before it may then drift back out etc. it’s a tricky one.

  7. 3.20 Newmarket. Interesting race with favs 53% so would have expected the fav with the Doyle/Appleby combo to be shorter….the reason I suspect is the horse may not be that good having clocked 36.78 mph on debut over 6.08f at Nottingham in a class 5..the average for the distance is 37.10 so below that and 53% represents around a 9/10 or 5/6 shot without the combo jock and trainer factored in so can be opposed…the only other horse to have raced is Dorset Blue which clocked an adjusted course time of 37.95 to bring it in line with the Notts course that Ottoman Court ran on. That was in a C5 also and even though the pedigree of Dorset Blue is not as good as Ottoman the time is superior and at the price is preferable. Of the others that have not run based on pedigree, the Crisford runner, Will To Win is interesting along with the rank outsider, Little Brown Trout…for a safe eachway bet Dorset Blue has to be the choice with Will To Win next in as the trainer is 4/18 with 2 yo for about a £4.00 loss…and if you want a more adventurous punt at odds of 125/1 an each way dabble may be worth a shot based purely on pedigree as the trainer does not do well with debutantes and is 0/4 with 2yo here. Hope this helps. gd lck if playing.

  8. Have decided not to post any turf picks for today as I can’t be confident as to the going descriptions and I’d like to do a little more work checking the effects of the actual going vs the official going on the methodology. Yesterday was a fiasco with connections and media correspondents all expressing different opinions none of which were in accordance with official goings.

    Right now I’m finding that some courses show significant effect whilst others not so. Could just be down to the course differences themselves but really need more time in order to be certain. Back at 5.00 with the update for Chelmsford and possibly Chepstow depending upon how I get on.

    1. Sorry… that should have been Chepstow and Newmarket for the update. Chelmsford is this afternoon but I have no selections for it. Heads in a bit of a spin here with constant updating for a whole pile of non runners.

    2. Do you make allowances for course differences and going? Would be interesting to know if one of the things you factor in.

  9. Haydock latest: jockey change
    9 Reflektor Jane Elliott claims 3lb

    Does that change Nick’s fancy??

    1. Nope! Well, the logic in part was the ‘booking’ of Frankie , with Frankie being Frankie obviously a natural upgrade on most/all others! He was up there for Johnny Gs but both NRs so he’s stayed at home and gone to Newmarket – but the fact he was booked in that race, when he’s the sort to sit out a handicap, esp in crap weather when not for the boss, did look significant. So, that logic still holds if that makes sense even though he isn’t riding. Jane is competent and 3lb off no bad thing in that ground, and she has a good clock in head, likes to race on the pace. Whether it’s significant that Kigcote is down at Newmarket for that Dascombe horse, time will tell also!!

  10. 4.30 Newmarket…last one today…..Nonchalance is a bit short for what it has achieved and Daring Venture and Flarepath of those that have raced may give the fav the most to do….of the unraced horses the pedigree of Visionara may prove the best…the speed of Red Romance is problematical…not sure if it is correct time ….if it is then the horse has no chance but if the recorded time by the RP is not correct then this may outrun the odds…tricky race to decipher…not sure it is a betting race given the uncertainty but Visionara may out run the odds on pedigree.

  11. Well done Silver with your 1st two readings of the races. Missed the 1st but backed Klassique.

    1. Thanks…glad you got on one of them….unfortunately Dorset Blue was a disappointment but two from three ok.

      1. yep good stuff Silver… if possible in your excellent musings, any chance you can put any selections / what you’re backing in a separate sentence, away from main body of your thoughts… a sort of summer / in conclusion sentence / or your -1-2-3 or whatever , as I know you may not want to view them as ‘tips’ as such 🙂 No worries if not, would help when having a glance! 🙂

        1. Ok Josh…agree the selections tend to get hidden so will put the selections first on a line of their own and the ramblings/justification and other thoughts that I have further down…just the way my mind works or doesn’t, depending on your perspective…so not offended if that was what you were afraid of…so not a problem.

  12. Hi Tim
    Hope you do not mind me mentioning are you doing too many ammendments for started rcording you mentions from January this year, you then came along with the HCs with 5 years results and substancle points profit, since you have started your review upon review both methods are under performing, could it be a case of tinkering when there is no need.
    Those 5 year figures will do for me, only mention this for over the years i have been guilty of tinkering at times too much on my own methods.

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