Members Daily Post: 07/06/19 (complete)

Uttox ‘through the card’, Tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

3.25 –

Angel of Harlem   (HcH) H1 I1 11/4 

Comrade Conrad   (all Hc’s)  w2  ES+ H3 9/2 S3A UP

 

Uttoxeter

None

 

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FLAT

Brighton

3.05 –

Pour La Victoire   (micro dist) 13/2 

Jack Taylor   (4yo+) G1 9/2 

3.35 –

Il Sicario   (all Hc’s) H1  7/1 S6 UP

Barrsbrook   (m TJC) H3 I1 8/1 S6 UP

Roy Rocket   (all Hc’s,4yo+) 10/1 

4.40 – Chikoko Trail   (m TJC) G1 13/2 S6  UP

5.10 –

Chetan   (m age) 10/1 

Good Luck Charm   (m TJC) 16/1 

Hedging   (m class) 8/1 

 

Bath

5.35 –

Essaka  (4yo+,m going)  w1 H1 I1 4/1 S1

Pastfact   (m’s dist and -class) 11/1 

Spot Life   (m age) 20/1 

Mrs Todd   (4yo+,m going) 28/1 

Sugar Plum Fairy   (4yo+,m’s going and age) 20/1 

6.40 –

Poetic Force   (4yo+,m going) H3 I1 G3 15/2 S4 S6 WON 15/2>9/2 (10pR4), 6.75/1

Sir Plato   (m runs)  I3 G3 10/1 

7.45 –

Oeil De Tigre   (m going)

Secretfact   (3yo+,m dist)  ES+ 20/1 S3A

Mutawaffer   (all Hc’s) 11/2 

Coronation Cottage    (3yo+,m dist)  ES+ 14/1 S3A

8.50 – Silverturnstogold   (4yo+,m’s going and age) H3 I3  11/2 

 

Haydock

7.25 – John Kirkup   (m age) H3 I3 13/2 

 

Goodwood

None

 

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THE KEY

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 13/70, 23p +24.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

4.30 MR – Vice Et Vertu – 1 point win – 9/2 (bet365) 4/1 (gen) WON 4/1 SP … well he is better than those even in his ageing years.. he’s seen that out best of the two fighting it out, albeit both of them clearly don’t like being in front too long/want company, the second looking around a bit late on helped. But, I’ll take it. 

that’s all for today, 08.44, write up…

To my eyes this race is simply a case of whether the real Vice Et Vertu turns up and runs his race – if he does, he’ll destroy this lot. If he doesn’t, Paddy may be working hard on the second circuit to keep him interested, with the Fav the likely beneficiary. This is the horses first run in a C4 since Jan 18, when dotting up  at Bangor and that was a deeper race than this. He’s been competing in decent C3s since then and if he repeated that Ffos Las win from Walt (also off 121), or his 2nd in Nov when beaten by the 129, lightly raced, Favorito Buck’s – well clearly he’d win this like an odds on shot I think. After that second he lost his way a bit, as is his want, but he isn’t getting any younger and carrying big weights against lesser opposition may be his level now. However, there was a return to form of sorts LTO at Newton Abbot. He nearly took it up 3 from home there, the front two miles clear, before a combination of the ground/trip got to him, and he faded/plugged on. Still, that was a better race than this and he had Gardniner’s hill behind him there, who’d win NTO. His mark has dropped 10lb in four runs and he should enjoy these much calmer waters.

It really is all about whether he runs up to his recent best, but he can be a bit of a character. Even so, I thought 4s was worth chancing in this field. He won’t mind any softening of the ground either and while he hasn’t raced here, he’s won around Ludlow/Bangor (similar to an extent) so I won’t use the track as an excuse.

The dangers…

Well Craigmor is obvious given he looks likely to run his race, is a CD winner and comes here seeking the 4 timer. I don’t think he’s been beating much and is up 6lb from LTO, from a horse who struggles to get his head in front. He may win again but he couldn’t do what the selection did at Ffos Las or Ascot, but of course he may not reach those heady heights. In any case I’m happy to take him on again, as I did LTO. Hopefully I don’t regret doing so this time.

Kings Temptation is another LTO winner who’s had a wind op since his last run. I didn’t think he was overpriced given his rest patterns suggest he’s hard to train/struggles for consistency and when he ran here two starts ago his jumping was awful, even before fitness was a problem. He could take this but I can leave at 10/3.

The other two have a few more questions. Derintoher Yank may have been more interesting if he’d have won over 2m3/4f over fences already. He’s yet to win beyond 17f and whether he will stay is a bit of a guess. The yard are on fire though and strange things can happen when that’s the case. He is a bit of a monkey also who’s hard to trust. Maybe they are getting his mark down before he bolts up making all over 17/18f somewhere. He is related to a few plodders so no forlorn hope and it’s not impossible this is what he wants now, but just a few too many questions really for me. As there is with Iskabeg Lane, the 105 rated bottom weight. He needs the 3 at the top of the market all to under-perform and I wasn’t sure how likely that was. I think there will be stronger stayers in here and this is a career high chase mark.

I do think this is all about the selection and whether he runs his race, as stated. Having said that so many times now he’ll obviously spit the dummy out, everything else will fall in a hole and McCain’s will be left to pick up the pieces! Hopefully Daly can improve on his perfect 3/3 record with C4 chasers at the track in the last 5 years. Fingers crossed.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

None on Friday – inclement weather/possible changes in ground is too uncertain, especially for evening meetings, and decisions won’t be possible before cut off time. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

4.30 MR – Iskabeg Lane

Trainers to follow

2.55 MR – Blushing Red (14/1<)

LTO Winning Trainers

1.50 MR – Red Royalist  (12/1< guide)

Jockeys/Chasers

4.50 Uttox – Pats Pearl (9/1< best)

 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

To confirm… there are no ‘big race/feature handicap’ stats/trends pointers this Saturday. The only handicap of interest looked to be the 2.45 from Newmarket, 17 runners, all age, 1m6f. But, it’s only the third running of the race. 

Uttoxeter ‘through the card’ (on request)

In truth this is a rancid card and unless you’re off to the races, probably not one worth bothering with! The weather complicates things… it’s officially Good after two dry days, having had a deluge before that. But from midday through to end of racing they ‘could’ get up to 12mm – it’s probably best to assume it will go soft, but who knows…

2.10 – Catchin Time 10/3 … well this evergreen 11 year old is the most solid in this, has been running well, massive drop in class, and rain won’t bother him. In reality you’d try and find something to take him on with, but I was struggling! It’s the sort of race where something may pop up at a price and connections will be asked to explain the improvement.

2.45 – pass

3.15 – Kalaskadesemilley – 5/1… any rain will help this one, and won’t help the Fav, but such is his good form maybe it won’t matter. However, this one is interesting and has been running well, and this trip may bring out more/slow everything down for him.

3.45 – pass

4.20 – River Argentee … well I could pass on this one also but he’s a LTo winner who won’t mind soft, and should run his race. IF it’s testing, that’s a question for the other two, but not a race to have a strong view on!

4.50 – Shakadame… blimey, an awful race. If this was assured to be decent ground you’d be all over the fav Pat’s Pearl as he does just look solid in this. But soft is a massive question. There’s not much to go on with the selection but he’ll like the ground and Murphy is banging them in, and does well with new recruits (% wise, not to back blind, that will make you poor) Fitness won’t be a question if he wants him fit. I mean I don’t think he’s a value price but this race is horrid. Grania O’Malley may be the most interesting at bigger prices and she may like/need the soft – she wasn’t very good LTO and her jumping went to pieces, and I don’t really like the jockey .. 2/97 all rides in the last year. Gulp.

5.20 – Trafalgar Rock / Eddy … TR is worth chancing at 8s I think given how well handicapped he is. Well his mark has been in free-fall because he hasn’t been very good! He used to be in the 120s and he drops significantly in class here. His best form is on soft. He has stamina to prove, it’s an unknown, I think just about built into his price. Some of his chase runs over 20/22f suggest he’s worth a go over it. Whether he sees it out over hurdles pace/in this ground, we shall see. If he stays, and runs his race, he’d win well. Eddy is just solid – well based on LTO if that was a true return to form. No idea where that run came from really. But soft is fine and in these conditions he’s probably the most thorough stayer.

So, that will do for this awful card. 🙂

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

  1. Go Another One in the 7.20 Clonmel is an entry tomorrow from Ben Aitken’s Summer Stunners but best priced at 8/11 is not a betting proposition for me.

  2. Josh, I noticed you included a scale for weight per length yesterday.

    Nick Mordin had the following scale which came from his research. I found the metric and converted it.

    1000m – 1.75kg 5f – 3.85lb
    1200m – 1.5kg 6f – 3.3lb
    1400m – 1.25kg 7f – 2.75lb
    1600m – 1kg 1m – 2.2lb
    2000m – 0.5kg 1m2f – 1.1lb
    2400m – 0.65kg 1m4f – 1.4lb
    3200m – 0.5kg 2m – 1.1lb

    It seems to work at the sprint distances, can’t speak for further.

  3. At last a Class 3 Hcp Hurdle with a decent amount of runners in it…
    14:55 Market Rasen
    ROMANOR 1pt win 11/2 gen
    The 6/1 has gone on this one as I would expect, as he should handle the track and has decent speed figures, the going should be no problem as he has won on a mixture and should be held up out the back, so, don`t panic as he comes with a usual late rattle!
    HAAFAPIECE 1pt win 15/2 gen
    Trainer in form and the horse should hopefully be ready for this, judging by the money coming for him. Another who will be held up till last minute, has speed in abundance also and hopefully the front two will go off too quick setting it up for a fight between these two, we shall see.

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

  4. morning all , been away for a few days on a short break but still had time to do my section 1 bets which i’m glad i did as they have been performing very well over the last 5 days bank up around 30% let’s hope the good run continues 🙂
    had a look at a few races this morning but no real standouts , Haydock 5-50 had 4 which ticked many boxes, Ghaayar,Motahassen, Beatbybeatbybeat and Maroc, but all ranked about the same so i’ve just thrown some small ew’s at them with sky/wh paying 4 places.

    1. you brave soul! 🙂 Looks like a day to the races where i’d prob spend more on food and drink than the racing haha – but with any luck a few of those run well. If the rains don’t arrive, it changes things somewhat I think but we shall see. Have fun.

  5. COLINS BETS
    3.25 M/R Wynford BOG 10/1
    5.10 Brighton Soaring Spirit BOG 9/1
    5.35 Bath Essaka BOG 4/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.55 M/R Tiffin Top BOG 13/2
    5.50 Haydock Milan Reef BOG 8/1
    7.45 Bath Little Boy Blue BOG 14/1
    NEW METHOD
    4.30 M/R Iskabeg Lane BOG 8/1
    5.10 Brighton Soaring Spirits BOG 9/1
    5.20 Uttoxeter Eddy BOG 3/1
    5.50 Haydock Beatbybeatbybeat BOG 10/1
    7.05 Goodwood Lethal Angel BOG 11/2
    7.35 Puds BOG 10/3
    Colin

  6. Nick
    Regarding your cut off time and evening meetings, if you thing that you could have a later bet surley you could say a second update will be at 5.00.
    Over the next couple of months there are some better quality evening meetings on the calander and would be a shame to miss a winner.
    Your decission for you put the bets up.
    Cheers
    Colin

    1. The main issue today Colin was the rain, or potential rain/ground changes come this evening. If today’s cards were set fair / could predict the ground last night, he’d have had a good look etc. Even then it isn’t full proof – I and many others assumed it would be soft enough at Haydock yesterday, and on official going etc. The times suggested it was nearer good ground!
      Timings etc I have to be conscious of – I can’t expect people to be checking/betting during the working day, after 9am mon-friday, and evening gets tricky. His only time to look today for evening meetings would be during his lunch break etc.
      Josh

      1. Haydock should be soft or worse I guess. If the rain is all over then other courses too.

        A couple for Saturday that should be suited by it at a price:

        3.00 Haydock, Treasure Me;
        4.30 Newmarket, Mayfair Pompette.

    2. Josh isn’t a fan of my putting stuff up after 9am but in fairness I’ve never been a fan of bingo which is what you are doing if you tip today. Best of luck to all the bingo participants out there though 😉

  7. Hi Josh…i need to drop you a line on your email address…I’ve forgotten what it is…could you advise.

    Tony Mc.

  8. Got the cigar at Chelmsford but the odds were only sufficient enough to break even on the day, but there were a lot of places at decent prices so I’m happy with what we’re getting so far. Afternoon selections up at 1.30

  9. Bri’ 2.30 Swiss Pride (NF HCP)
    Bri’ 3.35 Barrs brook (NF HCP)
    Bri’ 4.05 Crackaway (NF HCP)
    Bri’ 5.05 Diva Star…… (NF HCP)

    Update at 5.00

  10. Swiss Pride……… 6.0
    Barrsbrook……… 6.0
    Crackaway……… 10.0

    Diva Star now doesn’t qualify so is NOT a bet. Will need to recalculate the 5.10 due to non runners. Will put it up with the evening update at 4.10

        1. I have no idea, I deleted a duplicate earlier, it won’t be anything this end I don’t think! Baffled. Unless you’ve posted it here by mistake and meant to put one here, / one in tipping comp.

  11. Question for Nick
    Is your punting different now from your tipping? Previously you put your bets up overnight, which many shortened up, probably making them a non value bet at 8am. So just wondering if horses you fancied at 9pm were no bets at 8am?

    1. Given the changes with bookies I bet very little the night before nowadays. The price changes for the most part happened once I put my tips up on here and not before. Both of yesterdays tips were actually lower the night before than when I put them up. There is very rarely much movement between 9PM and 8AM so the movement comes from the people who f*ck the exchanges but on the rare occurrence it moves and I feel it isn’t value than no I wouldn’t put it up although at times its tricky.

    1. Wasn’t it just – was a tad closer than I hoped…especially as they turned for home, but I don’t think either of those horses like being in front too long!! Battle of the monkeys – not sure whether winner thrown that way, or Vice has just seen it out better (prob a bit of both), albeit he just wanted a horse to race against I think, and was giving him more than a stone, in testing enough ground. Paddy at his strongest, those two do have a good bond.

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