Members Daily Post: 06/06/19 (complete)

Nick’s Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

5.35 – Cruising Bye   (micro TJC)  ES+ H1 I3 5/1 S3A# 

8.50 –

Market Road   (HcH,m dist and -class)  ES+ H1 I1 11/2 S3A# 

Codeshare   (m TJC)  ES+ H3  2/1 S3A

 

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FLAT

Hamilton

4.00 –

Weld Al Emarat   (all Hc’s) H1 I1 9/1 S1 S6  UP 5/1, well he was never winning from there, made up plenty of ground, but pace generally held up. Well handicapped he’s one to watch, when given a chance. 

Vive La Difference   (all Hc’s)  ES+ G3 4/1 S3A UP

4.30 –

Imperial State   (all Hc’s) H3 8/1 

Kenny The Captain   (all Hc’s)  ES+  5/1 S3A

5.00 –

Amazing Grazing   (m class) 14/1 

Music Society   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+  10/1 S3A

 

Haydock

5.10 – Firby   (m age)  w1 9/2 

 

Ripon

3.20 – Aiya   (m class) H3 G1 11/4 UP

3.50 – Qawamees   (4yo+) 33/1 

5.20 –

Raffle King   (4yo+,m age) 10/1 

Racquet   (4yo+,m age) 16/1 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/69, 22p +20.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

None again, there’s a C5 3 miler which i’ll leave, I find the animals just a bit too unpredictable/ inconsistent at that level. The 6.40 FL only has 4 runners, so i’ll leave it – 3 comfortable LTO winners and the other ran well LTO. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

4.10 Hayd – Bengali Boys – 1 point EW – 18/1 (BV/WH) 16/1 (gen) (1/5,4p gen) UP, -2 

5.00 Ham – Samovar – 1 point EW – 16/1 (gen) (1/5,4p…Lad/WH/Coral/BetF) 2nd, 16/1, 1/5 , +2.2 

that’s all, as of 08.07, my notes…

 

Bengali Boys – Haydock is expecting rain on ground already Good to Soft so best to assume this may be testing enough. Around half the field have form in soft inc Nick’s selection. This is his second run for the yard and it’s just a case of if/when connections rekindle his enthusiasm for the game. He was a very smart juvenile and in 2018 his an OR of 102. He races off 78 here and at some stage he’ll drop in, if he isn’t gone at the game- the run LTO would give you hope that there’s something to work on, staying on from the back and going forwards at the line- so he arrives in some sort of form. Conditions should be fine. Hopefully they don’t ride him too cold out the back, as it could be tough to make up ground here in a race lacking searing pace on paper. One of Carroll’s more regular pilots returns and they dispense with the hood.  He’s also top on Geegeez Speed ratings and I believe they are still very profitable to back blind in 5f races. I’ve watched his last run back and he wasn’t knocked around there at all, never really got after him, albeit he looked a tricky ride. 18s/16s looks overpriced, and he may appreciate this bigger field.

Youkan is clearly a danger if building on his return, as is Show Palace if the rain arrives at 8s, with Boundary Lane (would have won LTO but for stumble at start) interesting, but soft is an unknown.

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Samovar – he’s a prominent racer who’s 4lb below his last win on the turf, at Nottingham has a 3 year old, on good to soft. He’s lightly raced on the turf and the way he keeps galloping at Southwell would give you hope conditions/this hill may suit. He also arrives in decent enough form and if handling soft/heavy, looks overpriced to run his race. His Thirsk effort two runs back in a C4 was decent enough, (won by Duke of Firenze) especially as he was only one of two to race up the stand side, which wasn’t the place to be on the day with all the action happening centre to far side.

Van Gerwen and Wrenthorpe (two live dangers) should tow the low numbers along here and it will be interesting to see whether they bunch up, or all edge towards the nearside. But it should be truly run and with any luck Nick’s selection can get a handy position and keep grinding away at a big price.

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4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chases

6.40 FL- Bally Longford

5.35 FL – Cruising Bye (9/1< best)  / A Tail Of Intrigue (16/1<)

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

6.40 FL – Stockburn

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

25 Responses

  1. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    R 3.50 – Kings Pavilion on 5th run @ 18
    F 7.45 – Oakley Hall on 2nd run @ 11/2

  2. Royal Ascot is not far off now. My first ante post bet is:

    Watchable at 33/1 with Bet365, 1 point each way, in the Wokingham Stakes, 5.30 Saturday.

    Nine year old chestnut gelding.Breeding – By Pivotal out of Irresistible. Trainer – David O’Meara. Watchable is a winner of three of his last four runs, but has only been raised three pounds by the handicapper for it, from 90 to 93. These three wins have been at six furlongs which is the distance of the Wokingham. He has won on good and good to firm ground, which he is likely to encounter on the day. On his latest run on Derby day Watchable won the 5.50 race, The Investec Asset Management Handicap, beating Lake Volta and Squats by three and a half lengths and and neck at an SP of 8/1. He looked value for more than the margin of victory and looks to be improving, despite being a nine year old. His trainer is adept at being successful in sprint handicaps and will no doubt have his horses in good form for this prestigious meeting. I expect Oisin Murphy to be offered the ride in the Wokingham, but Danny Tudhope will be an able deputy. At the current odds available Watchable looks to be some value in a very competitive race. The draw may play a part on the day but that unknown is factored into the horse’s price ante post. 

    25/1 is acceptable but not less at this stage.

    1. Hi Martin,
      best of luck with him, without looking at the race I find it hard to believe that a 60 raced 9 year old is improving and won’t find a few younger/more progressive legs a bit too quick/better handicapped than him. But he does seem to be back in rude health.

      He’s been raised to OR 100 after that Epsom win, he raced off 93 in that race and they’ve raised him 7lb, which 2.5lb per length over 6f seems about right, albeit he did bolt up and was value for further- i’m sure his rich vein of form and getting an easy enough time of it on front end played a part though. However his RPR was 105 there, his best since 2016, and he used to be a OR 108/110 listed performer etc – so technically he could still be well handicapped if back to near his best, but you’d have to have doubts at his age.

      He is in the right ratings band for this now, 6/7 rated 100+ going into it. Those with 6+ handicap wins to name are now 0/61,5p in last 22 years, so he has that to bust, but you know what they say about in form sprinters!

      Anyway best of luck , such is his form you could get a thrill for your money, but i’d be bemused if there wasn’t a younger horse better handicapped/more to come, as with him you’re hoping an old performance suffices, which of course it may well do. (i’ll prepare for him to bolt up again!) Personally I can’t see him being much shorter than 25s on the day, when you know the draw/going/pace set up, but i could be wrong on that! It’s usually 28 runners and as a horse the market knows him inside out.

      It will be interesting who Murphy rides, given he’s chasing the title and his agent will no doubt go through the race and try and get him on the best horse on the day he can, so if he is on Watchable, could be a massive positive.

      As an aside for anyone else interested in terms of lbs per length on flat as a guide…
      Distance (Pounds per Length )
      5f (3)
      6f (2.5)
      7f-9f (2)
      10-12f (1.5)
      12f plus (1)

      1. I did miss the 7LB rise. At 33/1 on Bet365 he was a bit of value I think in a very hard race. ‘Improve’, I think he is in terms of form and well being, although I appreciate that it will be temporary at his age.

        1. Oh don’t get me wrong, think you’re very likely to get a run for your money – and based on everything we know, and that LTO RPR, he is in form to run up to a 105/108, and that could be good enough. I’ll be interested to see what he is on the day, when know more, enhanced places etc, my non scientific brain assumes may be a similar price, but no doubt he’ll be top price 14s or something having said that out loud! He was ever so impressive at Epsom.

  3. COLINS BETS
    3.00 Hamilton Onda District BOG 5/1
    6.00 Chelmsford Zac Brown BOG 16/1
    ELITE BETS
    4.10 Haydock Jabbarockie BOG 15/2
    NEW METHOD
    2.10 Haydock Smeaton BOG 4/1
    3.00 Hamilton Onda District BOG 5/1
    4.30 Hamilton Avenue Of Stars BOG 9/2
    7.05 Chelmsford Elysium Dream BOG 10/1
    Colin

  4. A quick one, does anyone know how ATR form their pace ratings, they are in the early stages of this, but, may be useful moving forward.
    Is it based on the average speed for the distance of the race, or, is it their own numbers used and then a stopwatch at the track/ watching on video??
    Just wondered if anyone had inside info?

    1. Hi Stewart.. i believe they use a company called GMAX equine’s technology. Basically a light-weight GPS tracker is put on the horses which wirelessly transmits data to receivers around the track.

  5. Afternoon bets……

    Hay’ 2.10 Say Nothing…………. 10.0 (NF HCP)
    Hay 3.10 Sermon………………. 10.0 (Non Hcp)
    Rip’ 4.20 Jill Rose……………….. 7.0 (NF HCP)
    Ham’ 4.30 Galloway Hills…….. 11.0 (NF HCP)
    Ham’ 5.00 Follow The Steps….. 8.0 (NF HCP)

    Back at 5.00 withe the update.

    1. Lots of places but no cigar…..

      Evening…..

      Chel’ 6.30 Spirit Warning……. 6.0 (NF HCP)
      Chel’ 8.05 Monaadhil………… 10.0 (NF HCP)

  6. 2.00 Hamilton…fav Makyon may well win but not backable at the price…prefer Troubador as a win only bet against the fav and at bigger prices e/w Stormy Bay and Typsy Toad the latter on pedigree and the former on speed and course experience.

  7. 2.30 Hamilton…..Last Empire and Senorita Grande e/w.
    2.40. Haydock….Internationalangel win only based on speed and pedigree with Dublin Rocker on pedigree and Irish Eileen e/w to outrun the odds based on speed and pedigree.
    4.40. Haydock….Enough Already may be hard to beat…Sendeed and Guandi may be best of the rest…was going to put up Grab and Run as the second choice but now a non runner…gd lck with whatever you are backing today.

  8. This sport is a joke at times. My word. Samovar put in the wrong stall, and i think that’s cost him. Came out of 12 and not 7, when low has been riding faster all day at Hamilton on straight track- i’ve no doubt he’s raced on slower turf there. We will never know, but wasn’t beaten far and may have got further ahead of eventual winner. Awful.

      1. No idea, they seemed to weigh in pretty quick, so game over after that’s been declared, officially at least. Not even sure if a stewards but assume there will be. I’m not sure what the void rules are but it obviously changes complexion of race etc. Thankfully it’s rare, someone asleep, including the jockeys – would have thought they’d know which stalls meant to be in – the starter or whoever organises it behind must have had it down wrong, some how.

  9. I seem to be finding new ways to lose at the moment. Being put in the wrong stall due to incompetence of the course staff is a new one! Just hope whoever cocked up has the decency to come out and publicly apologise for it!

    1. Its they stupid Scottish people .They want to run their own country but can’t even put a horse in the correct stall .

    2. If it`s any consolation Nick, so do i…But, that is unbelievable, what next, put the horse in backwards and then watch it back out of the stalls. I understand they have a really tough job, but, who was organising them??

      1. i mean it’s pretty rare, they normally notice- well it’s the first time i’ve seen that happen from memory, certainly in last 2/3 years – sods law it’s happened to Nick’s and it’s run a stormer up slower part of track. A cock up somewhere, cant’ believe they didn’t notice, and that neither jockey did!! Odd.

        1. UNREAL! I had a few bets on the 5.00 at Hamilton today, for those who dont know….. two horses came out of the wrong stalls namely samovar (NICKS TIP) who came out of 12 instead of 7 and gift in time who came out of 7 instead of 12.

          Basically, samovar came second with the winner coming out of 5 and my point is surely this race is void? You stake your bet on various angles like draw etc like at Chester in a sprint you want low draw, if your fancy came out 5 stalls over you would prob have a different viewpoint? If samovar came out like he was supposed to almost next to the winner then who knows!

          To compound things I also had the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in exotics.

          I contacted Betfred who basically said tough luck’.

          1. Well given the Each-way return i’m pleased they didn’t void it haha – one of those rare things. I think technically it should have been void imo, but there we go. It’s rare for them not to notice horse in wrong stall and correct it. Very strange.

  10. Not even a steward’s enquiry. I dunno! If it hadn’t been the last race on the card someone would have been pulled in for sure.

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