Members Daily Post: 05/06/19 (complete)

Nick’s Tips x1, Section 1 (x1), updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

2.15 – Top Rock Talula   (HcH) H1 13/8

4.00 – Master Burbridge   (micro -class)  I3 4/1

4.30 –

Urtheonethatiwant    (all Hc’s)  w2 H3 I3 9/4

Vexillum   (HcH)  ES+ I3 11/2 S3A

 

Newton Abbot

3.00 – Tamarillo Grove   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 I3 6/1

4.40 – Bramble Brook   (m’s class and runs) 5/1

 

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FLAT

Nottingham

12.30 –

Dream World   (m runs)  w2 H1 3/1

Dr Doro   (all Hc’s) 12/1

2.00 – Luckys Dream   (all Hc’s,m age)  w1 H1 I3 4/1

3.45 – Miracle Garden   (all Hc’s) H3 7/1

 

Ripon

8.00 –

Pipers Note   (4yo+,m’s dist and class) 16/1

Quick Look   (4yo+) 8/1

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/69, 22p +20.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

None.

Cornish Warrior – well that’s as disappointing as it gets really, in the sense that he was never going a yard from flag fall and no run for my money at all – i can’t blame the ground for that effort – odd, never travelled. Maybe he doesn’t like rain and must have got out of the stable the wrong side! Very poor, not much to say about that. You clearly can’t trust him moving forward. Of course next time he races it will be on proper good ground with 1st time blinkers/visor, and no pace in the race, back at Southwell/FFos Las – and i’ll no doubt hurtle myself fully off the cliff. The winner no great shock obviously, given he was 3/1 Fav, he just about saw it out. I think that’s the sort to take on at the price more often than not, but he was the solid one I suppose and most likely to run his race in conditions.  The heavily gambled on Master Sunrise departed early, much anguish for those who got on at lofty odds, even for change. There’s nothing I’d really want to take from that race, they are what they are, albeit on that evidence the second – Old Pride- may make all in a poor race at some point. The winner is a solid yardstick for this time of year, albeit the softening ground may not have suited plenty of them. The 3rd is just a bit tripless/lacks a turn of gear.  Amber Gambler has clearly lost all form for now, hopefully connections can rediscover it at some point. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

1.00 Notts – Burj – 1 point EW – 20/1 (SB/BetS/PP/Boyle) 16/1 (others) UP, -2

that’s all for today, as of 08.07…

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

May Tipping Competition

One of you good members (Mike- I need to send him some beer!) has been keeping track of all entrants since the start of May. The results detailed below are as per his records, which he’s double checked (says a few of you occasionally miss NRs and inc in losers etc)

I have redacted his spreadsheet and just included those who were in positive territory for the month 🙂

You can find ROI/BFPL and BFPL (-5% comm) in HERE>>>

Of interest… (sorry for the fuzz, clearer in link above)

Winners are decided by ROI at the moment… so, with 20 bets min number to qualify for a prize… May’s winner of a crisp £50, is Chrisiwyg. Well done, i’ll be in touch Tuesday morning, and get it to you asap.

Thanks to all those who took part as always etc. The link above is worth a flick through, if only to highlight who you may wish to keep an eye on this month! This month Chris has shown that success isn’t about number of winners 🙂 (who knew?!) Well done to all of you who’ve made it into those tables/the link above. Onwards to June.

Don’t forget this comp is open to all of you members, just post up your selections and follow the rules in the daily Tipping Comp Posts. Write ups/reasoning are always welcome as an added bonus. I’ll leave the prizes as they are for June, but from start of July I may need to consider rewarding the top 2 or 3 each month, inc rewarding those that top the Profit pile. I’ll have a ponder.

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Strategy Results Update 

My thanks to member Danny for these, as always… full updated Spreadsheet for the month/2019 monthly running totals… HERE>>>

‘Highlight’s’…

Well, it’s been a ‘meh’ 2019 so far for the ‘where to begin’ advised portfolio of Jumps S1, S3A# and Flat S6

2019 Total: 158 bets / 22 wins / 48p (inc wins) / -1.33 (morn odds) / +1.17 BFSP (after com)

Nothing much to shout home about here as yet. Had 3-5 of those 26 placed horses got their head in front it would have helped. Still, it’s holding the 30% win/place % and if they keep doing that, the profit will roll in at some stage. And Jumps S1 (which is on summer hols) and Flat S6 have always relied on a few biggies dropping in.

Flat S6 was 0/21,5p, -21 for May, ouch. But such runs are to be expected given the SR but never pleasant. A couple of those placed horses were agonising head bobs/photos.

Jumps S3A# is 14/50, 27p, +10.82 (morn) for the year. Steady if unspectacular. Well a 20% ROI isn’t to be sniffed at.

I’ll update the links in the Key on Tuesday, but don’t forget to refer to those three links (‘where to begin’ / other ideas / in the bin), esp if searching for some solid ‘starting points’ from the strategies, to give you a daily shortlist to attack. At some point this week I plan to pull together a few ideas on how you can attack the stats content with ‘form eyes’ (just for you Tim!) 🙂

It’s been a trying 5/6 months where the portfolio (inc tips) has yet to get going at all. It’s been a struggle, to say the least. When sat in my seat you hope that if one or two aspects falter, the other will step up. Well, the ‘where to begin’ strategies and my tips have had a mediocre time of it, and Nick has yet to kick in the turbos – which he will. Sadly still suffering a correction from last year’s heady heights. However, my daily tips/Festival, the strategy portfolio and Nick are all 1/2 decent winners from returning to profit, such can be the fine margins at the odds we generally play at.

I did note in the comments discussion after various ‘outrage’ at performance, that Martin W has been following Nick for 14 months to £4 per point and has won over £2k – spouting about the ‘long term’ when recent months have been testing can sound hollow but it’s the only way, and having some fun/profit for small stakes is what it’s about, certainly when starting to follow something. The number of placed horses is what should give long term confidence, and that’s true for those strategies, my tips and Nick’s. The tide will turn – the bookies could be in trouble if everything hits some profit form at the same time! Fingers Crossed.

 

Nick’s Tips

MAY’s results. (happy to dispute but think they are correct!) 🙂 

58 bets / 5 wins / 16 further places / 21 wins/places

  • -8.97 advised, non BOG
  • -8.22 BOG (3 horses drifted from advised that placed) 
  • -29.43 Betfair SP win , +7.28 Betfair Place SP, (before commission) 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

17 Responses

  1. If anyone is planning on following Ben Aitken’s Summer Stunners (very profitable last year) the first one is due to run in the 4.10 at Newton Abbott tomorrow, appears to fit the criteria and currently available at 7/1 with William Hill. With Josh’s permission, I will post the qualifiers when I can. I know it’s plugging “the opposition” but i believe he is a mate of yours, Josh!

    1. Haha, yea we get on OK! 🙂 As I think about need to organise our annual jolly to Pontefract.
      I need to add those to my tracker actually but yep if you can post that would be great. Think someone (you?) Posted last year after I got his permission so doubt a problem and he won’t mind, esp if they do well!
      Josh

  2. I think my ‘form eyes’ are getting too bleary for it these days J Dub. Most of the form I’ve used this past couple of months has just served to lead me right up the garden path again. Having said that, it’s not that I’m denying that good form can be useful if applied correctly. It’s just that there’s so much misinformation in there alongside it, it’s hard to sort the wheat from the chaff.

    When you’re depending on the game for a living you have to attempt to maximise all the means available to you, which is really all I’m trying to do at the moment with these ‘no form’ bets.

  3. COLINS BETS
    5.10 N/A Lapford Lady BOG 6/1
    ELITE BETS
    1.30 Nottingham Baltic Baron BOG 6/1
    2.35 Nottingham Palladium BOG 4/1
    7.15 Kempton Attainment BOG 8/1
    8.15 Kempton Cristal Spirit BOG 15/2
    NEW METHOD
    2.15 Fontwell Cold Fusion BOG 13/2
    3.45 Nottingham Dalness Express BOG 9/2
    8.15 Kempton Knight Crusader BOG 5/2
    Colin

  4. 3 No Form Handicaps for today but could be more yet depending upon non runners & withdrawals. So won’t put them up till later. Ideally they really need to go up as late as possible, but I know that won’t suit everyone, so I’m thinking that it might make best sense to put the general list up on here at midday and the revised bets up on the TC page one hour before the off time. That way those that want to follow but can’t keep looking in can at least get something.

    Non Hcp bets of which there haven’t been many this past few days will go up in here at the same time and on the TC page at the same time with the usual later update for evening meets.

  5. Josh
    can you please put up Jamie Osbourne’s today’s video for he his brilliant with his remarks to the abusive tweets over yesterdays failure to have a winner, and he stresses that he was born in wed lock! not according to some.
    Well worth a watch everyone.

    Hills and Hughes again not up with their views yet and JO runner is 66/1 so know doubt will win and he will have more abuse.
    Richard the other day was not abusive compared to what Jamie mentions, hey ho why do we do it!
    Love the game
    Colin

    1. Evening update…..

      Rip’ 6.30 Precocity………… 8.0
      Rip’ 7.00 Anna Bunina…… 9.0 NF HCP
      Rip’ 7.00 Rakastava………..12.0 NF HCP
      Rip’ 7.30 Converter……….. 10.0 NF HCP

      1. Thanks Tim… just to confirm, is Precocity a non hncp bet? , Mister Chiang confused me on that front given was a handicap, but no NF Hncp note.
        Josh

        1. Yep it’s one of the original bets I started posting right at the start. I’ll mark them accordingly from now on.

          1. ha, well yep – but however you distinguish between this new test/hncps, and whatever you posted originally/you’ve done well with before/in private etc, is the main thing, just so I know we are looking at the right ones etc.

    1. Oh, the ones only appear down from ones I re tweet, that appear on twitter. But yep anyone can access that Lambourn Trainers site as above.
      He’s in the wrong business if he lets those that reside in the he twitter sewer get under his skin haha.

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