Members Daily Post: 04/06/19 (complete)

Daily Tip x1 + write up, Nick’s Tips x1, Section 1 (complete), Updates – tipping comp/strategies

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS 

Bangor

3.00 –

Secret Escape   (HcH) 11/1

Wazowski   (HcH)  w1 H1 9/2 

Kingston   (micro dist) 7/1

4.00 –

Write It Down   (m class and runs) 8/1

Handy Hollow   (HcH,m dist) 11/2

 

Southwell

2.15 – Maratt   (m runs) I3 14/1 

2.45 – Global Domination   (m class)  w1 H1 I1 5/6 

4.15 –

Late Night Lily   (m age)  ES+ 9/4 S3A

She’s Gina   (m class and runs)  w1  8/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/69, 22p +20.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/23,9p, -0.75)

Daily Tips

3.30 Bangor – Cornish Warrior – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) PU – hmmm, well that’s as disappointing as it gets really, in the sense that he was never going a yard from flag fall and no run for my money at all – i can’t blame the ground for that effort – odd, never travelled at all. Maybe he doesn’t like rain and must have got out of the stable the wrong side! Very poor, not much to say about that. You clearly can’t trust him moving forward. The winner no great shock, the gambled on Master Sunrise departed early. 

that’s all for today, 09.16, write up…

I tipped this one LTO where he didn’t run much of a race but given he’s 14s here, I wanted to have one more go on him – If he repeated that Ffos Las run, or with any luck that Southwell win 4 starts back in October, he’d out-run these odds and be bang there over the last. He’s 8 and this is only the 7th chase of his life and he’s up against plenty of older/more exposed legs in this. His run LTO could well indicate he’s just out of form but Hexham is unique, he may not have enjoyed travelling that far to the races, the ground may have been sticky and more importantly given that his two chase wins have been on flatter tracks, it could well be he didn’t enjoy the up and down nature of the place. That’s the excuse I’m using, all in the context of his price. The defeat of Little Windmill in October is solid form in the context of this race, he was going away at the line, the front two miles clear. ‘On the figures’ that run is equal/better than most in here’s recent efforts. While Bangor isn’t as flat as Southwell, it’s flat enough, and while the trainer doesn’t have a great record here, he is 0/13,5p in handicap chases with numerous seconds – I also thought there was a chance Harry is more aggressive on him here, as he is a galloper. After that Southwell win he ran at Cheltenham in a race that was seemingly too deep for him. He was there until around 4 out, but again i’m not sure he ever looked happy at the track but they were probably going too quick for him. He returned in April when no doubt needing the run but the front two there were 117+ horses. The second has run well/won since and the winner was an unexposed Jonjo chaser who capsized for me LTO when I thought 7/4 was a decent price, tut tut.

There’s a chance he is being scrubbed along/losing position with 1 mile or so to go here, but at 14s I was happy to roll the dice. There is some rain around- possibly up to 5mm – there’s no mention of them having watered, and I don’t think good to soft would be an excuse for him, and again he’s 14s. Softer conditions would be a question for many in this. If they have over-watered and that amount of rain turns this proper soft/pudding like, that would be frustrating – but one of those things that it seems we just have to accept.

The dangers…

Master Sunrise… well Darran Pearce and the hunter chase fraternity appear to be all over this one. He was 28s last night, 18s/16s for a while this morning and is now 8s. I did throw 5 at him at 18s, but had Darran not emailed his tribe, i’m not sure id’ have been near him! Apparently his last two hunter chases can be ignored-  he went well for a long way at Chelt before his stamina emptied over that 4m, and LTO was a deep race – won by a 129 horse, 114 was the 3rd. They may have well been going too fast for him the whole way. On some of his better form from last year he is looking well handicapped off 90 but he really needs the 1st time blinkers to work – which they may do. Sean rides for the stable for the first time and with 1st blinkers and the money down, i’d be surprised if he doesn’t try to make all, in a race without any consistent front runners. 8s is getting short even for throwaway change but if he’s pinging the first 3/4 with 2/3 length lead, and clearly travelling well, he could stay there. Plenty seemingly think he will.

Chase The Wind – another tip from LTO when for me he could have won – no idea why his jockey held on to him for so long, he should have let the handbrake go and ridden him as if he would stay. That was a poor race. His 3m form before that is ok, but he’s been outpaced numerous times over that trip in poor races and 6s or so just wasn’t big enough, but I wouldn’t be surprised if SQ makes more use of him. He could hit the front at some stage and stay there. But, since he came back after a long absence, his finishing efforts are now raising a few questions. But he’s solid.

At the prices, those three look the most interesting.

The fav, Steel Wave, may well take this- but he’s only raced beyond 2m4f once over fences and does have stamina to prove – as such 5/2 looks short and with 12 st to lug around, i’m happy to take him on. But he’s in form and has younger/sounder legs than many. He should run his race which may be all that is needed today. The race LTO wasn’t that deep and it was a blanket finish which he wouldn’t have won had the leader not veered sharply left. He did stay on there as if this may be his trip now and he looked like a stayer over hurdles in Ireland. But he’s 5/2 so he can beat me. You get better 5/2 shots in races like this (unexposed/proven stayers/good jumpers/in form/lone front runners… the latter is key for me if I ever go ‘short’ again!)

Gamain can take some riding, hasn’t been winning great races, and could lose his position around here. He’s often looked better RH and has had 50+ days off. He may well run his race though and he should keep plugging away. But, he’s 7/2, and doesn’t looked overpriced to my eyes.

Deputy Commander – he’s interesting but not at what was 5s (drifting) given his profile- his run LTO was after 770 days indicating a serious enough injury. There’s a chance he ‘bounces’ and i’d have been more interested if Sam was here and not at Southwell (decent book of rides for the good Dr and Mr Ralph- Newland’s former assistant – who has Master Sunrise in this) This is more his trip and if he builds on that staying effort LTO he would overturn the form with the fav I think. But I didn’t want to wade in at that price and we will know more about his well-being after this run. To be as lightly raced as he is aged 10 suggests he’s rather brittle and you’d want a bigger price in my view.

Amber Gambler has been out of form for a while, has had a break and returns without his usual headgear. I suppose at 12s he’s more interesting that some and he does stay. At his best he has a tad more class than all of these but you’re just taking a bit too much on trust, even at that price. With any luck he runs a nice race here, doesn’t win, and is one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks. He’s been lightly raced since Nov 2017 and is clearly another who’s had plenty of niggles in his time.

I can leave Old Pride given he’s 11, is another who’s had problems looking at his rest patterns, and returns here after another 266 days off, with well-being and stamina to prove. He can beat me, even at his price, and you’d just doff your cap to his trainer. If Spock wins, well, there will be no words.

PACE… well Spock may try and lead for a time actually, if good enough. He has 17f ‘speed’, relative to this test/his age, but over this trip they may be more restrained. But he could tow them along for a time. I think Sean B will be aggressive on MS for the reasons stated. I’d hope Harry Read sits in second/third on mine, and gets after him in good time- that’s if he’s in the form to do so. The rest can generally race prominently (but without leading) so it will be interesting to see what positions they adopt.

So, fingers crossed Cornish Warrior can rediscover his winning chase form to date. He’s no 14s shot against this lot if he does. Market support suggests Master Sunrise is about to do something, and the consistent Chase The Wind may leave me mildly annoyed. 🙂

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End MAY +2.94 / +2.19 BOG , May -8.97/-8.22)

7.20 Newc – Tough Remedy – 1 point EW – 10/1 (Lad/BV/Coral) 9/1 (others, inc 1/5, 4p… will be declared to 4 places gen 9/1 … SB/WH/BetfS/PP/BetF/Boyle)

that’s all for today, as of 08.06

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

The Doyler

6.10 Ling – Angel Of Delight

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A Dunn (25/1< guide)

2.15 South – Diligent

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

3.30 Bang – Master Sunrise

Trainers to follow

2.00 Bang – Espinator / Luck of The Legion

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.30 Bang – Steel Wave

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

May Tipping Competition

One of you good members (Mike- I need to send him some beer!) has been keeping track of all entrants since the start of May. The results detailed below are as per his records, which he’s double checked (says a few of you occasionally miss NRs and inc in losers etc)

I have redacted his spreadsheet and just included those who were in positive territory for the month 🙂

You can find ROI/BFPL and BFPL (-5% comm) in HERE>>>

Of interest… (sorry for the fuzz, clearer in link above)

Winners are decided by ROI at the moment… so, with 20 bets min number to qualify for a prize… May’s winner of a crisp £50, is Chrisiwyg. Well done, i’ll be in touch Tuesday morning, and get it to you asap.

Thanks to all those who took part as always etc. The link above is worth a flick through, if only to highlight who you may wish to keep an eye on this month! This month Chris has shown that success isn’t about number of winners 🙂 (who knew?!) Well done to all of you who’ve made it into those tables/the link above. Onwards to June.

Don’t forget this comp is open to all of you members, just post up your selections and follow the rules in the daily Tipping Comp Posts. Write ups/reasoning are always welcome as an added bonus. I’ll leave the prizes as they are for June, but from start of July I may need to consider rewarding the top 2 or 3 each month, inc rewarding those that top the Profit pile. I’ll have a ponder.

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Strategy Results Update 

My thanks to member Danny for these, as always… full updated Spreadsheet for the month/2019 monthly running totals… HERE>>>

‘Highlight’s’…

Well, it’s been a ‘meh’ 2019 so far for the ‘where to begin’ advised portfolio of Jumps S1, S3A# and Flat S6

2019 Total: 158 bets / 22 wins / 48p (inc wins) / -1.33 (morn odds) / +1.17 BFSP (after com)

Nothing much to shout home about here as yet. Had 3-5 of those 26 placed horses got their head in front it would have helped. Still, it’s holding the 30% win/place % and if they keep doing that, the profit will roll in at some stage. And Jumps S1 (which is on summer hols) and Flat S6 have always relied on a few biggies dropping in.

Flat S6 was 0/21,5p, -21 for May, ouch. But such runs are to be expected given the SR but never pleasant. A couple of those placed horses were agonising head bobs/photos.

Jumps S3A# is 14/50, 27p, +10.82 (morn) for the year. Steady if unspectacular. Well a 20% ROI isn’t to be sniffed at.

I’ll update the links in the Key on Tuesday, but don’t forget to refer to those three links (‘where to begin’ / other ideas / in the bin), esp if searching for some solid ‘starting points’ from the strategies, to give you a daily shortlist to attack. At some point this week I plan to pull together a few ideas on how you can attack the stats content with ‘form eyes’ (just for you Tim!) 🙂

It’s been a trying 5/6 months where the portfolio (inc tips) has yet to get going at all. It’s been a struggle, to say the least. When sat in my seat you hope that if one or two aspects falter, the other will step up. Well, the ‘where to begin’ strategies and my tips have had a mediocre time of it, and Nick has yet to kick in the turbos – which he will. Sadly still suffering a correction from last year’s heady heights. However, my daily tips/Festival, the strategy portfolio and Nick are all 1/2 decent winners from returning to profit, such can be the fine margins at the odds we generally play at.

I did note in the comments discussion after various ‘outrage’ at performance, that Martin W has been following Nick for 14 months to £4 per point and has won over £2k – spouting about the ‘long term’ when recent months have been testing can sound hollow but it’s the only way, and having some fun/profit for small stakes is what it’s about, certainly when starting to follow something. The number of placed horses is what should give long term confidence, and that’s true for those strategies, my tips and Nick’s. The tide will turn – the bookies could be in trouble if everything hits some profit form at the same time! Fingers Crossed.

 

Nick’s Tips

MAY’s results. (happy to dispute but think they are correct!) 🙂 

58 bets / 5 wins / 16 further places / 21 wins/places

  • -8.97 advised, non BOG
  • -8.22 BOG
  • -29.43 Betfair SP , +7.28 Betfair Place SP, (before commission) 
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

14 Responses

  1. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 3.30 – Chase The Wind on 1st run @ 13/2
    …………Cornish Warrior on 1st run @ 14
    BRT
    N 7.20 – Ibraz on 2nd run @ 4

  2. Thank you, Mike, for the tipping competition results, your record keeping is better than mine, I think I missed a non-runner and included it as a loser.

    I will be donating my prize to charity, probably the IJF unless anyone has a better suggestion.

    My selections do show a decent profit over time especially to bsp. I play largely on longer priced horses and bsp is usually a lot higher than sp when a biggie goes in.

    The flip side is that it is much less than 11am price with BOG on many occasions when the horse is gambled on. And as far as I know there’s no way of telling which way your horse will go in the betting.

    My winning strike rate here last month, 7.5%, was very low for my tips. I hit 10.7% for all my system qualifiers in May with a very good profit. Those numbers tell you one important thing – expect long losing runs…

    1. Chris
      Big thank you for donating to the injured jockey fund, for they risk injury and even their life for our enjoyment.
      Colin

  3. COLINS BETS
    Newcastle
    6.20 Restive BOG 9/1
    6.20 Home Before Dusk BOG 6/1
    8.20 Rockley Point BOG 11/2
    Lingfield
    7.10 Harrogate BOG 6/1
    7.10 Cappananty Con BOG 4/1
    ELITE BETS
    5.40 Lingfield Pentland Lad BOG 9/2
    6.20 Newcastle Ishebayorgrey BOG 7/4
    7.10 Harry’s Bar BOG 2/1
    NEW METHOD
    6.50 Newcastle Never Be Enough BOG 9/2
    7.10 Lingfield Cappananty Con BOG 4/1
    Colin

  4. Bookmakers
    Josh in response to you message from a few days ago.
    The smaller new bookmakers do not appear to stay around very long, Bet Bright and 10 Bet the two that spring to mind and they both had closed me down and 10 bet took about 3 weeks to get the £1500 that they owed me.
    Ladbrokes was resricted to 10 pence told them to piss off
    Skybet again 10 or 20 pence bets in other words closed down
    Racebets, Bet Victor and Betway closed down
    Coral, WH, Unibet, Boyle Sports struggle with each of them to have £5 ew on my golf bets.
    Coral accepted four bets of £20 each the other day at SP only when Betfair was down won £120 so doubt they will accept them again.
    This above only took 5 to 6 years built up to £100/200 bets then when went up to £200/400 bets it was goodbye from them.
    Betting Shops no way would they accept above bets for they contact head office and they have your history to hand, the bookmakers are not daft, even Adrian who has his bookmaking licence at times struggles to lay off to Ladbrokes etc.
    Will mention Willie Mcfarland because the £400 bets were on his information and i paid him £750 per year for eight years till had built up to £200/400 bets tried for a while on Betfair but could not get anywhere near his prices so told him could not continue.
    Knew Willie vaguly through Dai and rang and said no bullshit do you win his reply was since stopped riding not had a losing year for 9 years and i can vouch for another 8 years, he hardly advertises for his clients stay with him so the tipsters who are always advetising are useless polite wording for been their and been ripped off.
    He was stable jockey to Nicky Henderson and still had very good contacts with the stable and when he adviced an Henderson horse would put £400 on till the end.
    Decided to trial Elite with a couple of companies i know to try and get an income through them and forget about betting, must admit though i would survive with the bookmakers longer than i did, all this is proven via my son who from the age of 12 has done all my computing and setting up accounts and he his now only 22 and he has no intention of betting for what he has witnessed.
    The Owners who are putting £50,000 on are either serial losers or passing info on that their horse will not win, McManus one day said on camera his best bet at Cheltenham was cannot remember the name and it was duly backed from 5/2 to even money of course it did not win, Synical me all the lemmings jumped on and the bookies satchels were full! it finished closer to last than the front.
    Thought i would reply for it is a quite day, and once start talking about horses and my experiences cannot stop for have been very fortunate in my life, another time will tell of my Newmarket experience and breakfast with Frankie for four days when he was an apprentice, what a 4 day meeting that was.
    Colin.

  5. Forgot PP and Betfair Sportsbook closed me down took PP less than a week to close Betfair Sports book down after buying them.
    Colin

  6. Jamie Osbourne
    7.20 Newcastle Lush Life BOG 5/2 Must win tonight for it will be the last chance to get into the Hunt Cup where he says told owner Michael Buckley it would have a massive chance.
    7.50 Newcastle Jump The Gun BOG 15/8 is also Ascot bound so needs to win tonight, and this is Jump The Guns second run so should have improved.

    Hills and Hughes have not put their views up yet, hopefully will be able to put up anything positive later.
    Colin

    1. JO is great value, have just Re-tweeted his video from twitter, great fun. On the right hand side for those who wish to watch (when on desktop/tablet).
      They seem to ride Lush Life patiently, and coming from the back can be hard at Newcastle so will be interesting. She’s clearly still well handicapped, and didn’t win by far LTO. I wonder if they may race her prominently to make sure. A muggy double for change may be way forward with those two at odds, to win some beer money 🙂

    1. very! Always the worst when they are under the pump that early/no run for money at all. Thankfully I don’t land on too many whose race is over quite so quickly, but doesn’t make it any less annoying. Abject. And for the gambled on horse to go at the 2nd. Nothing to cheer/watch for most of that race.

    1. A good work out for the young lad! Rare I back one who’s race is over quite so early – never travelled a yard, no idea why, bloody animals. Minds of their own. Can’t have been ground given how early he was under the pump but who knows. Won’t be shocked to see him in a pair of blinkers at some stage. And annoyingly the minor poke on the gambled on horse ended at the 2nd. A race to forget sharpish, and nothing to take from it.

  7. Charles Hills Lambourn
    8.40 Lingfield Vindolanda BOG 6/1 been backed from 15/2

    Hughes still not put up any views so will give him a miss today
    Colin

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