Members Daily Post: 01/06/19 (upd5)

Nick’s Tips x5, Daily tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Epsom Jocks

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Hexham

1.30 – Melody Of Scotland   (micro TJC) 9/1

3.15 –

Classical Milano   (HcCh) 10/1

Apache Pilot   (m class)  w1 H1 I3 5/4

4.45 – Royal Salute   (HcCh) 40/1

5.20 –

Donnas Dream   (m age and runs) 11/2

Court Baloo   (m dist) 25/1 S2A

 

Worcester

4.05 –

Theatrebar   (m class and dist)  w2 H3 10/3

Mere Anarchy   (HcH,m runs) H3 15/2

5.00 – Get An Oscar   (m class) H3 11/2

 

Stratford

6.30 – Lord Bryan   (all Hc’s,HcCh)  w2 9/1

7.00 – Cubswin   (all Hc’s,m age)  w2 H3 10/3

7.30 – Wells De Lune   (all Hc’s,HcCh) 33/1

8.30 –

Souriyan   (all Hc’s,HcCh) 16/1 S2A

Mercers Court   (all Hc’s) 16/1 S2A

 

Bonus Irish

Tramore

3.00 – Cusp Of Carabelli   (HcH) H3 4/1

*

 

FLAT

Doncaster

1.20 –

Jumping Cats   (all Hc’s) 9/1

Echo   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  H1 I1 2/1 S1

2.30 – Lady Of Shallott   (all Hc’s)  ES+ I3 9/2 S3A

3.40 – Black Lotus   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I3 7/4

 

Epsom

None

 

Musselburgh

2.15 – Mont Kinabalu   (m age) 14/1

5.30 – Loud And Clear   (m -class) H3 G3 I1 14/1 S4 S6

 

Lingfield

5.45 –

Mongolia   (all Hc’s) H3 G3 I1 9/2 S4

Forty Four Sunsets   (all Hc’s) G3 13/2

6.15 – Vision Clear   (m dist) H1 I3 4/1

7.45 –

Aegean Legend   (m dist) 50/1

Flying Sakhee   (m dist) G3 11/2

 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/67, 22p +22.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/20,8p, +2.25)

Daily Tips

1.45 Worc- Bestwork – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP, poor run, worst of his 3 since return really. Damn. Correct to take on the top 3 but with the wrong one sadly. Maybe winner did find race LTO too hot or he bounced. But on Badger Ales 3rd he was clearly entitled to take that as would a repeat of his run two starts back in truth. He was around 6s this morning also so more bearable than if he was 10s and at that price point with a P next to name I’m more wary. But I’ve got him wrong. 

as of 08.33…

I thought this CD winner looked a shade overpriced here on his 3rd run back after a break. He does well at this time of year and was going to be ‘running on’ LTO before taking a soft fall- he jumped fine, but appeared to skid on landing. He’s been outpaced on both his last two starts but again was running well on his return. That race has worked out well, with the 3 in behind winning six between them since. It was a hot race for the time of year. He is now back down to his last winning mark, should race prominently (and will hopefully take it up early, or when Little W starts to go backwards!) and could put the rest under pressure. Longson’s had a winner in the last two weeks and Burke jumps back on. 

I did’n’t like the top of the market really, not at the prices, albeit Tizzards is drifting. Were he 7s/8s I may have had a go however something niggles at me with him, as he keeps getting ‘outpaced’ (which he shouldn’t have done at Ayr) before running on. He has CP, a TT. He seemed to find the 2m5f around Kempton too sharp LTO but it turned into a two horse race. His jumping was iffy, but may appreciate going this way round. He’s the least exposed and is the one i’d fear most if getting his act together, but he was just a bit too short to find out. I’ve gone for the solid option. I can just leave the other two, they don’t look overpriced. Maybe Newland has worked his magic on the 11 YO, who’s been flying in points but has stamina to prove under rules. He can beat me at 3s, which he may well do.  I didn’t like any of the other big priced ones.

To Stratford… I was hoping Mr Mafia would be a tad bigger than 4s in the 8.30. I think he’s the most dour stayer in that race in conditions, (shapes as if will relish this trip) but he is 10, he’s 1/13 chasing and is usually held up out the back, which I rarely like, esp at 4s. So, i’ve left him, but will be interested to see how he goes. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16, May TBC)

3.45 Epsom – Just That Lord – 1 point EW – 16/1 (1/5 5p) 

5.15 Epsom – Genetics – 1 point EW – 10/1 (lad/coral) 9/1 (gen) 

7.30 Strat – Dandridge – 1.5 point WIN – 15/2 (bet365/BV) 7/1 (gen) 

8.00 Strat – My Lady Grey – 1 point EW – 11/1 (bet365/Lad/BV) 10/1 (others) 

8.30 Strat – Souriyan – 1.5 point WIN – 12/1 (lad/coral) 11/1 (BetF) 10/1 (others) 

 

that’s all for today from Nick, as of 10.10…

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.45 Worc – Shoal Bay

6.30 Strat – Lord Bryan (9/1< best)

7.30 Strat – Wells De Lune (9/1< best)

8.30 Strat – Souriyan (9/1< best)

Trainers to follow

5.00 Worc – Prophets Prayer

LTO winning hurdlers

5.20 Hex – Chocolat Noir

*

Handicap Chase System Starting Points

6.30 Strat – King Cnut

*

Adam Norman’s LBB

3.50 Hex – Tickenwolf (long term, guide)

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Epsom Derby Big Meeting Report : READ HERE>>>

 

Day 2 Jockeys

2.35 – Awesometank

3.10 – Bye Bye Hong Kong

4.30 – Circus Maximum (6/1< guide)

5.15 – Byron Flyer / Genetics

5.50 – Stone of Destiny / Watchable

*

The Dash 

Trainers (22 years)
• S Williams: 2/9, 4p (Dashas)
• P Midgley : 2/11, 3p (Line of Reason)
• T Easterby: 1/10, 3p (Copper Knight / Eeh Bah Gum)
• A Caroll: 1/6, 2p (Boom The Groom / Recon Mission)
• D Ivory: 1/5,1p (Stake Acclaim)

*

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

54 Responses

  1. Colins bets, Mays returns
    SP + 10.25 BOG + 27.191
    Elite bets
    SP – 14.417 BOG – 3.70
    Jan/May SP + 42.167 BOG + 91.283
    New Method
    SP – 5.625 BOG + 2.933
    Will do a complete round up Sun/Mon, for must get ready for town.
    Colin

      1. Traf
        Thanks for that greatly appreciated, doing a trial with Elite with a couple of companies so could have done with a profit rather than a small loss on the first month.
        Colin.

  2. Epsom through the card and one other.
    2-00. Politicise 9-2 money back if 2nd
    2-35. Awesometank 6-1
    3-10. Mordin 6-1
    3-45. Muthmir 11-1, Harome 16-1
    4-30.Madhmoon 10-1, Norway 33-1
    5-15. Aquarium 8-1
    5-50. Watchable 8-1
    Worcester.
    1-45. Little Windmill 18-1

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 3.15 – Mornong Royalty on 6th run @ 9/2
    H 3.50 – Jack Lamb on 3rd run @ 5
    S 6.00 – Last Chance Paddy on 5th run @ 150
    S 6.30 – Lord Bryan on 1st run @ 4
    W 1.45 – Lord Ballim on 4th run @ 16
    D 2.30 – Dark Shot on 4th and 7th run @ 12
    …………Just Glamorous on 8th run @ 20
    M 2.15 – Be Kool on 1st run @ 12
    Festival
    M 2.15 – Dark Shot on 2nd run @ 12
    3m+
    W 1.45 – Sporting Boy on 5th run @ 10
    GL

  4. Having spent all day yesterday analysing these NF bets only to find that it doesn’t matter which selection you choose to take they all make profit IN THE LONG TERM. (April 2015 to date). So if you’re the kind of guy that prefers regular winners then go short but if you like the bigger odds type of bet then play long. The important thing to realise (and there’s nothing I can do about it), is that there is a trade off between strike rate and ROI. As you would expect the price of taking the shorter priced high strike rate winners is that the ROI is poor. (Expect around 25 – 35%) If you only play the longer shots expect 80 -90% IN THE LONG TERM.

    It is what it is and the mathematics has no preferences for any horse, trainer or jockey trainer combo’ etc etc…. unlike the form way of doing things where once we make up our shortlist, it’s all about the price I can get as to how we come to making the final decision. This method just produces a shortlist and nothing more.

    So if you’re the kind of person that needs the reassurance of a form book that requires the faith of a committed Jehovah’s witness to believe in then it’s not for you, but if you fancy something different, give it a go but no whinging that there’s too many bets. Just take the bets that best fits your style of betting. Don’t forget that if you take the long and the short you’re in competition with yourself as well as the other punters so it will need a larger bank to operate.

    I’ve also changed the programs from SPR to BFSP to make it easier for all of us. Putting them up in SPR format was a right old pain in the ass. BFSP means I can do them exactly the same as the non hcp bets and all you have to do is put the price requirement on them. Same rules too! If the bet gets taken it goes on the score sheet. So Ken will be happy now cos they can go up same time. I’m a little miffed as I missed out on a 30.0 win at Donny last night which now takes the profit (backing them all), to +111.7 on the season, although at the same time now I better understand how it works. I’m kind of pleased too.

    So that’s it, I’ll be back later with the bets and that’s how they will run to the end of the season. Getting involved with the form book was a big mistake on my part for which I can only apologise, but it seemed to be the right way to go at the time purely because I (amongst others on here), hate multiple bets in the same race. Having said that I’m happy to play them all now, but I might just put the long shots on the TC page along with the regular bets as they do put up some big ROI figures.

    1. Thanks Tim. I don’t pretend to understand the way your system works but no one can question the amount of effort you put in. Do you have a life outside of racing? 🙂 Personally I will probably go for bets around 4/1 or greater but will keep an open mind. If I miss a winner it’s no one one’s fault but mine! Good luck.

        1. Be about lunch time Solent with a late afternoon update cos there’s a whole plethora of races to look at today.

          1. Thanks, I’ll paper trade for this month, then make my mind up to which road to take short or long!!

          2. Good luck Tim. I imagine you to look like Christopher Lloyd’s character in Back To The Future. I look forward to your efforts and will monitor them going forward. I hope that I can provide some feedback (positive of course) on your work.

      1. Hi Ken…. You’re already in trouble as with the exception of 5 runner fields they are all 4/1+. It’s really like I said, you need to decide which end of the market you want to play if you want to get around the multiple runners issue. OR you could try using form to separate them, but I won’t be held responsible if you end up blowing your brains out with the frustration of it all. 🙂

        I have tightened up on the eligibility criteria which should result in less possibilities and therefore less qualifiers, but that is something I have no way of testing, so will just have to wait to see if it has the desired effect over the coming months

        1. PS….. apart from my horse I guess I don’t have much of a life really. Problem with me is that once I find myself with a challenge on my hands I’m like a dog with a bone. I can’t complain though cos I’ve spent all of my life doing as I pleased so don’t really feel I’m missing out on much. Besides it provides the best of excuses for not having to spend my evenings watching mind numbing crap on the TV with my partner, cos she loves everything from crazy game shows through soaps to even crazier so called ‘reality’ shows. It’s life Ken…. but not as we know it!

          1. Since I retired I too have become totally obsessed with horse racing statistics.

            Geegeez started me on that road and when I discovered Horseracebase I was happier than any pig.

            I break off sometimes to go racing or watch football or cricket but as for TV or even a partner, sorry no time.

          2. Ah well I might have to increase my lower threshold. Let’s see how it goes and yes the soaps and reality crap tend to have the same effect on me 🙂

          3. Your dilemna is the one I have had all along Ken. That is why I opted for the SPR method as it works quite simply on the position the horse is in the market. That way if the Fav’ goes odds on even the 2nd Fav’ can justifiably become a value bet. So it all makes sense. Going BFSP means that the position in the market is ignored and you end up with a one size fits all arrangement which sounds dangerous but it should be offset by the reduction of possibilities in any given race. The BFSP value is based upon the past results with the tightened criteria so theoretically all is good providing you stick to your strategy plan. Increasing the uncertainty by randomly (or otherwise), changing between strategies is a bad idea I think. Pick one and paper trade the other or split stakes could be another way to go, but don’t forget in the most competitive of fields 3 qualifiers will pop up sometimes, so take that into account too.

            Don’t forget that even when 3 do show it’s all been accounted for in the results so the effects of not taking the other 2 bets and their consequences over the longer term have already been factored in. That’s why I’m telling every one now that you will need a bigger bank if you are planning to back them all.

    2. Hi Tim
      The other day the figures you put up you said that included 2% BetFair commission,cannot imagine how you are on this low figure, i have bet with them for a number of years and still on 4%! would probably be better using their maximum 5% for the records.
      Multiple bets in a race provided there is a profit all for it, remember bookmakers work on an overall 2% profit, all though this was 20 odd years ago when told this by a mate Adrian who is a bookmaker, and doubt if it will have changed much.
      Good luck and dare i mention that i have a betting bank put aside for have great faith in you.
      Colin.
      PS give your horse a kiss on the nose and a carrot from me.

      1. I got an email off of them about 6 months ago offering me the 2% commission rate as a loyalty bonus for an indefinite period on the basis that it would make me ineligible for any promotional offers, so I took it. Betfair’s promotional offers are rubbish if you don’t bet on the sportsbook or play poker and/or slots.

        1. It is test on 10000 customers, they will move to 2% comm for all customers sometimes in next 12 months.

    3. Wish you all the best with this “no form” approach as it is unique and obviously radical in approach…have been waiting, like a lot of others here, to see how this pans out with mathematics being the language of the universe may lets hope there is universal profit for all!!!

      1. 🙂 🙂 ……. Don’t get me going on that one Silver. I’ve been studying quantum physics as a hobby for the past 20 years. It all came about from an existential crisis I had in my mid thirties after walking through a window that I thought was a door. (Long story). Ended up carted off in an ambulance with a serious concussion along with physical face and head injuries. I fully recovered (I think), but QP has been an obsession ever since. It’s one of those things where the more answers you get the more questions it raises so, I’m not expecting my passion for it to end any time soon.

        1. Harmony of the spheres and all that and the uncertainty principle…the more we know the more ignorant we realise we are..sorry if I have awakened past trauma memories but understand the passion for the subject ..personally I do not have the mathematical ability to understand the complexities of quantum physics, philosophical implications more my cup of tea but hope the maths work out for you as am sure that given enough criteria in developing an algorithm the maths will eventually be able to have a profitable strike rate..I wish you all the best.

          1. The maths is way beyond my level too Silver. Smarter people than me read this stuff so I choose to leave it to them to point out any errors or anomalies in the theory. My preference is for the experimental side of the subject where the theories are put to the test in reality. Or maybe to be precise that which we believe to be reality. 😉

  5. COLINS BETS
    3.45 Epsom Duke Of Firenze BOG 7/1
    3.45 Epsom Hathiq BOG 9/2
    4.05 Worcester Rolling Maul BOG 12/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.00 Epsom Politicise BOG 9/2
    3.25 Musselburgh Calling The Wind BOG 14/1
    3.25 Musselburgh Gravistas BOG 3/1
    NEW METHOD
    1.45 Worcester Sporting Boy BOG 10/1
    2.00 Epsom Alkaamel BOG 7/1
    2.15 Musselburgh Swift Emperor BOG 4/1
    2.30 Doncaster Lady Of Shalott BOG 5/1
    5.15 Epsom Fire Fighting BOG 16/1
    5.20 Hexham Donnas Dream BOG 7/1
    Colin

  6. Lambourn
    No bets today Charles hills 2 runners to short in the betting, and the other two trainers i watch do not have runners today.
    May profit SP 7.00 BOG 12.25
    Colin

  7. 2.35. Epsom…At the time of writing there are still 8 runners so will put up Akvavera e/w currently 33/1…last time out it reared and lost all chance. The horse has clocked 37.58 mph over this course and distance which is faster than Anna Nerium and Awesome Tank at around 37.42 mph….those at the top of the market should not be underestimated but at the price of 33/1 with 8 runners worth a punt.

  8. 3.10 Epsom… Mordin win only @ 11/2 having clocked 37.81..faster than anything else so would be appropriate winner with a name like that…coincidence bet!!??…no e/w value unless you can get enhanced places.

  9. 4.30…Epsom..thoughts on the Derby….confusing picture regarding previous going assessments and have had to produce two sets of figures for Sir Dragonet, Telecaster, Broome and Anthony Van Dyke a not sure how reliable previous going descriptions are in those races….soft, yielding, heavy always far more tricky to deal with in assessing times than gd or gd/firm going…so with that said the other problem is trying to determine if a horse will stay beyond 8f and 10f if never run over that distance before and also being able to handle the track….so more guesswork than I would like….additionally you have O’Brien fielding 7 of the 13 runners but not complaining about that as without his multiple entries there would be no each way options…..so on pure speed over 8f Circus Maximus clocked 37.70 mph..Madhmoon 37.5 mph..the question is will they stay…???…Next up Sir Dragonet over 12.28f and the two figures I had were 34.72 on soft and 35.68 on gd/sft…that was at Chester where the going, in my opinion was soft ..my average for 12f distance is 35.69 mph….so taking the two figures = 35.19 …just below average…..I have Telecaster clocking 35.88 over 10.25f and a projected speed over the Derby distance of 35.48 mph…Broome over 10f clocked 35.66 if soft and 36.68 if gd to soft =36.17.mph average …(my average is 36.15 so ok for 10f)….projected figures to compare with the Sir Dragonet distance are 35.06 soft and 35.85 if gd to soft giving 35.455 average which is better than Sir Dragonet’s average of 35.19 mph….Anthony Van Dyke over 11.60f on soft is 36.31 and gd/sft 35.32…projected to compare with Sir Dragonet is 36.38 and 35.44 giving an average of 35.91 compared with Sir Dragonet’s average of 35.19….so on the above Anthony Van Dyke will beat Sir Dragonet with Broome coming second and Sir Dragonet third of these three. Ok what about Madhmoon…adjusted to compare with Sir Dragonet projected speed = 35.90 and Circus Maximus = 36.02….providing both stay the distance which is not a forgone conclusion. I have focused on these as they have either beaten other rivals previously and the speed of the other runners is not up to scratch..so not an easy race to decipher given the variables and trying to determine if horses that have produced gd speed over 8f will stay the distance and handle the track…given the above my two have to be Anthony Van Dyke and Circus Maximus but for small stakes only…otherwise just watch and enjoy….all the best whatever you are playing and hope this did not add to the confusion.

    1. Interesting result with Anthony Van Dyke winning and Madhmoon coming second with average 35.91 for the winner and 35.90 and for the second…shows a way forward in trying to assess speed of horses when projected over a longer distance than they have previously won…gives methodology a boost going into the future…Circus Maximus ran well enough but proved the “one paced” comments in the Racing Post whilst the comments about Madhmoon running on validates the way the horse ran over the longer distance than previously contested….should have done the forecast but sadly did not! Lessons to be learned going forwards.

  10. Apologies for the delay in posting but had problems with the non runner update this morning. Think I’ve got it sorted now so should be up before 1.30

    1. Is sorted but is taking a very long time to execute. Will put them up the moment they arrive on the screen.

  11. Tipping Comp – May

    Because I had a little time and I’m sad that way 🙂 I recorded the tipping comp selections during May.

    Taking every single selection posted would have resulted in 1,268 bets for a Betfair SP profit of 129.59 points for an ROI of just over 10% (59.71 points profit with the maximum 5% commission).

    Not bad for a bunch of amateurs at SP 🙂

    Well done everybody!

  12. The god damn wheel has been spinning for almost 2 hours now. Normally I’d do what everybody else that runs windows does and shut it down for reboot, but I daren’t in case I lose the data. It ran slow yesterday, but this is rediculous.

      1. I think I need to set up a clean install of Proform on a new partition and transfer only the programs I’m using cos there’s over 3 years of stuff on this now and I’m thinking it’s beginning to creak with the weight of it all. Either that or window’s has hung up half way through the process.

  13. Decided to shut it down anyway. Rebooting now…. I’ll be back one way or the other shortly.

  14. This afternoon…….

    Donc’ 3.05 Durston NF 5.0+ Buck Tavern NF 5.0+
    Nott’ 5.05 Cobweb Catcher NF 5.5+ Fairy Fast 5.5+

    Update at 4.00

  15. At least that’s one bagged for tomorrow but I can’t find any others which is hard to believe for a busy Saturday. Have cloned a fresh copy of windows into a new partition and just loading up a clean copy of Proform to transfer the programs to.

    1. Hi Tim,
      I upgraded a laptop with a knackered HDD to SSD and loaded it with Mint and Cinnamon. You turn it on and it’s ready to go immediately. No waiting for all the windows in the background shite to load up. Desktop is similar to W7 so easy to use and I’m using it more and more. I’m assuming that iesnare is useless too but need to confirm that. Chances of freezing are miniscule compared to windows.

      Still use windows machine for gmail etc as I only want what I choose to have on the SSD and you can’t trust em to respect your privacy options, eg “notify me when updates are available but don’t download them” Yea right!!!!
      Mike

      1. Mike… I’m already using Linux, have been for 20 or so years now, but Proform only runs on Windows or Mac. To get around it I run windows in a virtual machine environment using virtualbox on a Linux OS. Sorts out all the leaky bucket security problems cos it is installed as a ‘guest’ so has to go through the host OS for access to the outside world.

        Still has all the usual windows idiosyncracies such as slowing down for no apparent reason over time and hanging up now again. The worst thing is that you can’t access the programs so if you find a problem you can’t get access to resolve it. Work arounds are tough on Windows.

        1. PS…. iesnare is disabled as long as you don’t use internet explorer or chrome browsers. Can’t remember who but someone suggested on here using Epic browser for maximum protection.

          1. Cheers Tim, more pertinent info re Linux. Still learning as I go and being a dinosaur and increasingly procrastinating with most things it’s invaluable.
            I use Epic when in windows and have mentioned it a few times on here but I think it was ‘silver’ who first brought attention to it. Might be wrong mind.

          2. Hi Titus…was me, indeed….operates on Chrome system but blocks all trackers…great browser with VPN options and ultra privacy settings…free to download…used it ever since I was hacked and no problems except sites that detect you are blocking their trackers like Odds Checker but if they do not allow access because you are blocking their trackers so be it….value my privacy more than using such a site…

  16. Sorry guys but it looks like that’s gonna be all for today as it will take a couple of hours just to load up the fresh database. Then I’ve still got to transfer the programs across and do the non runner update before I can run them. Plan now is to get it all up running and tested for tomorrow now.

  17. LThis Site is Rubbish
    Thank Goodness Mbership running out
    greedy Josh deserves to lose members
    Since Headlining Loser Nick

    1. If you haven’t got the patience to see out a tipster’s bad run you shouldn’t be here. Nick, Colin, Tim and Josh (and others from time to time) have won me a small fortune in the last 15 months or so. Every tipster has ups and downs. Nick will come good again, mark my words. You really don’t know what you are talking about.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.