Members Daily Post: 31/05/19 (complete)

Test tips x3, Nick’s Tips x5, Section 1 (x1), Epsom report / pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Carlisle

1.40 – Afandem   (micro age) 10/1 

3.25 – Royal Flag   (all Hc’s) 8/1 

 

Epsom

3.45 – What about Carlo   (all Hc’s) 11/1 

 

Doncaster

None

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JUMPS

None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/67, 22p +22.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 2019 4/23,9p, -0.75)

No target jumps races of choice, so no tips from me. 

 

Flat ‘Test’ Tips

(2019 4/23,9p, -0.75)

2.35 Epsom 

Masham Star – 1 point win – 9/1 4th

History Writer – 1 point win – 8/1 UP

3.10 Epsom 

Old Persian – 1 point win – 10/3 UP

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Masham Star – i’ve used the pointers in section 4 and I thought there’s every chance he could win this from the front. His draw isn’t ideal but there are no habitual front runners in this race, unless something changed tactics, and I thought there’s every chance SDS could get on the front end. At his best the horse could take this and I would be surprised if he finished out of the places. I think he may just cling on, provided he behaves himself pre race (can get in a muck sweat) and settles through the race.

History Writer – this race generally goes to a more fancied runner, under 8/1 SP, and this one looks interesting enough. His trainer is in form and he seems to be improving – that run LTO was a career best on RPRs and something to build on. I’m not sure he relished the proper good to firm ground there and if this is genuinely ‘good’ (good to firm in places) it may allow him to put down fully in the closing furlong. He’s been going forward on his last two starts and Jason Watson rides the track well.

Hortzadar would have been more interesting were he better draw/he was sure to be ridden prominently – there’s a chance he’s dropped in and will need all sorts of luck from there. Were he a lone front runner say, i’d have taken a chance. But of the bigger priced ones he looks interesting and I wouldn’t be shocked if Hors De Combat ran into a place, but he does find winning hard these days.

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Old Persian – one for ‘The Doyler’ here- i’m not sure what’s up with Buick, he went into hospital days ago now for some tests and I haven’t heard anything since, unless i’ve missed some news, but fingers crossed all is well. Anyway, James is clearly an admirable replacement and I wanted to be with his one here as I think conditions will suit best. I fully expect him to be fully wound up for this and it could be a big year. He won the Sheema Classic LTO in Meydan, a career best on RPRs, and 12f on decent ground looks to be ideal for him. He’ll race prominently and he’s tough. I wasn’t sure Kew Garden’s would get the pace to aim at here as i’m sure he’s best over further , hopefully the selection has too much toe in the closing stages. And Gosden’s fillie needs to step forward and find a bit on ratings, which she may do, esp if the main two underperform for some reason. But, she does have a bit to find on both ratings and RPRs.

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

2.35 Epsom – Masham Star – 1 point EW – 9/1 (gen) (1/5, 4p gen) 4th, +0.8 

4.45 Carl – Milan Reef – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) 3rd, 70p R4, -0.52

5.50 Epsom – Hateya – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen)

6.00 Donc – Brother McGonagall – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) (1/5,4p gen)

7.30 Donc – Whinmoor – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen)

 

that’s all for today from Nick, a quiet end to the month! 🙂 As of 08.04 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Epsom Derby Big Meeting Report : READ HERE>>>

A few jockey pointers + some stats pointers for 2.35 on Friday and ‘The Dash’ on Saturday – not many stats of use though. 

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Epsom Day 1

‘Qualifiers’ (starting points) from the report above…

Jockeys

2.00-

Rayong

2.35-

Masham Star / Nicklaus / Hors De Combat

3.10 –

Old Persian / La Ti Dar (6/1<)

3.45 –

Setting Sail / Lorelina

4.30 –

Anapurna (6/1< best)

5.15 –

Happy Power

5.50 –

Adorable / Alemaratlyoum / Nobleman’s Nest

 

Big Race Pointers

2.35 Epsom 

Aged 4 or 5, placed at least once on last two runs… leaves 9/62, 20p… and a shortlist of four…

History Writer / Nicklaus / Masham Star / Hortzadar 

Trainers (22 years) (with runners)

  • M Johnston : 2/14,3p (Masham Star / Rufus King)
  • W Jarvis : 1/1 (Arigato)
  • S Williams: 1/4 (Ghayadh)
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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Epsom on Friday – 2.35, I like Arigato each way. The horse had a pipe opener earlier this month and trailed home last, but that may have been just a leisurely pipe opener? This is a step up to class 2 but at 16/1 readily available now we have to take this on trust. Josephine Gordon rides well and the horse has won at 9 furlongs (this is 8 1/2). So 1 point each way at 16/1.
    4.30 I have backed Lavender’s Blue at 25/1 ante post for this and she is now 16/1. She never ran at two and has only had two runs as a three year old. She won well first time out and then ran a close second last time in a class one listed race, beaten in a photo. She now steps up to twelve furlongs which should suit. She is fast improving and whatever she does here she will be one to watch as the season progresses. So 1 point each way at 16/1 as at now.
    5.15, Urban Icon seemed to not enjoy her experience in the 1,000 Guineas but was only beaten 6 1/2 lengths by the winner. The seven furlongs should suit better and should be prominent in the race under Tom Marquand. The draw is OK and the field is not big and so we should get a clear run. So 3 points win at 9/2 as at now.

    Good luck.

  2. a few worth considering at Epsom
    2-00. Rayong 15-2 money back if 2nd
    2-35. Masham Star 10-1, Hortzander 12-1
    3-10. Marmelo 16-1, Communique 22-1
    3-45. Jazeel 6-1, What About Carlo 12-1
    4-30. Frankelina 14-1, Lavenders Blue 16-1, Maqsad 5-1
    5-15. Happy Power 7-1, Marie’s Diamond 25-1
    plenty of enhanced places about

    1. just one other bet today,
      Carlisle 3-25. 4 n/r’s but still leaves 8 and Wynford 50-1 looks overpriced, fit from hurdling and has won here over 1m6f back in the day on soft, no form on heavy but it’s now such a weak race worth a punt at the price. £2 ew

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    D 6.00 – Brother Mcgonagall on 7th run @ 11
    BRT
    E 3.45 – Borodin on 2nd run @ 12
    GL

  4. Sometimes coming late to the party works in your favour. 3 NR’s in the 4.45C means a 70p Rule 4. Nick’s tip now down to 2.4/1 which I’m sure would’ve been no bet had he known. Feel sorry for those who got on before the NR’s. There has to be a better way than this, surely. There’s time to reform a market so why not give the money back and let the punter decide?

    1. Yeah slightly annoying that although definitely wouldn’t want to automatically get my money back. More often than not particularity when the NRs are 6/1+ you actually get a better price even with the deductions than you would have in a reformed market.

    2. You always have the option of getting out of a bet by laying it on the exchange, most of the time after rule 4s this can be done without a loss and in many cases you’ll make a profit. I agree with Nick though that most of the time after deductions more often than not you’ll get a better price than the reformed market so not sure I would automatically want my money back.

  5. COLINS BETS
    1.40 Carlisle Seamster BOG 5/1 well a 12 year old not normally for me but ground will suit and Laura in the plate has she has been for 2 wins out of Seamster’s 3 wins.
    2.35 Epsom Marsham Star BOG 8/1
    6.00 Doncaster Starlight Ash BOG 13/2
    ELITE BETS
    5.30 Wolverhampton Tha’ir BOG 7/2
    7.10 Chelmsford First Voyage BOG 12/1
    NEW METHOD
    2.25 Epsom Masham Star BOG 8/1
    6.40 Chelmsford Archdeacan BOG 11/4
    7.00 Doncaster Gabrial The Wire BOG 8/1
    7.30 Doncaster Starlight Romance BOG 12/1
    Colin.

  6. Morning everyone not a tip just an observation, Chelmsford 18.40, Catalogue 33/1.
    The trainer had a winner at Leicester in the week at 40/1 Queen of Burgundy which was a William Haggas cast off.
    This one is a Richard Hannon cast off, on form no chance, but notice first time cheekpieces and same jockey booking as with Queen of Burgundy and that was his only ride for stable in the last 14 days.

  7. 2.00 Epsom….Misty Grey to beat Pinatubo with Rayong third….based entirely on speed….MG = 37.90….Pin = 37.67….Rayong= 37.38 all mph and course and distance adjusted….tight with the first two as you can see. Gd lck.

    1. yea a few of the ‘time boys/girls’ were enthusiastic about Misty Grey’s efforts on the clock etc, and concluded 3s+ was value. Looks a hot little race, we shall see. With these inexperienced horses, some won’t handle the track/camber at all, so could also be who handles track best etc. Bol

      1. Hi Josh,, I agree it is a hot race and note the comments about the track but as the horse has won at Ripon which is a tricky track itself, think it can handle this one and at the price worth a shot based on speed alone..all the best.

        1. oh for sure, that was a general comment , no specific to that horse. Just for me at this track, the odd strange thing can happen where ‘form’ or ‘time’ etc, could be argued more likely to be turned on it’s head, with those yet to run here etc, some will be unbalanced and hate it, losing to horses who they shouldn’t etc. But he looks solid, may well bolt up.

        2. Just seen I have opposed you with Salouen e/w as you have gone for Old Persian…forecast??? gd lck with your selection.

          1. could well be a 1-2 if yours is able to dictate, he may well be the one to overhaul late on!

          2. Could do..just hope there are no non runners as just happened in the Misty race..really annoying when there are 7 runners then another non runner as it makes the prices unbackable…fingers crossed.

        3. Rayong a non runner now…real pain the butt so at 11/4 not sure if it is a bet…Dancing in the Woods is the bigger priced altenative that may surprise but now a no bet for me.

          1. hmm he was pulled out at 12.55, 10p R4, was still plenty of 3s about i think. We will soon find out, app the fav looks like a 3 year old in paddock.

    2. What the hell was Franny doing on Misty going stupidly fast…. really bad ride going off like a lunatic then not ridding the horse out…must have realised he blew the horses brains out!

      1. tricky, horse ran away with him a bit down the hill- I suspect everyone knew what they were up against there and he thought only way to win may be to burn off, he could have got hold of him a bit more I suppose, but it didn’t matter – they’ve all bumped into a good one there, who did everything wrong/didn’t handle track, and still won easily come the line.

        1. Think that tactically they got it wrong…never one to criticise usually but think they got that all wrong trying to burn them all off….over 5f no problem but over 6 against quality horses always problematical but agree the winner is a quality horse and may well improve again.

  8. No bets from me today. I’m working on these handicap bets to make them more practical, putting them up on here yesterday was just far too time consuming. Also bringing back the price requirement as it means I’m not encumbered with the SPR method. I can just put them up and if they make the price we’re on. If they don’t we’re not. Will also have the bonus effect of reducing the number of races with multiple runners. It will also allow for win/place betting and will also make life a hell of a lot easier for me.

    Back with a full breakdown and figures for the past 5 years to authenticate the modifications. Oh and almost forgot………… still NO FORM! 😉

  9. Lambourn May + 15.25 points was + 28.25 now on 13 losers abate some of them were placed, ew is not for me, these figures include NH trainers as well as Flat.
    Charles Hills
    7.10 Chelmsford Livvy’s Dream BOG 5/2
    9.00 Doncaster Starlight Red BOG 16/1
    Ed Walker
    5.50 Epsom Blackheath BOG 14/1
    8.40 Chelmsford Maygold BOG 7/2
    Osbourne and Hughes not put their views on there runners yet, will put up later if any positives.
    Colin

  10. 3.10 Epsom….Salouen e/w based on the horse beating Kew Gardens by a nk at the Enable race at Longchamp and ran a faster speed at Sha Tin in Hong Kong in a G1 clocking 37.02 mph whis is the fastest speed of any horse contesting this race an at 6/1 is value e/w….Kew Gardens clocked 36.60. mph …Old Persian has clocked 36.69 mph and I think the latter will beat Kew Gardens and Salouen will beat both of them. Gd lck.

    1. Each way money landed and drifted in price before the off so BOG punters may enjoy enhanced odds…. Defoe was beaten by Salouen by about 8 lengths in the Longchamp race and was beaten by Kew Gardens in that same race so note anything that ran in that race as the form looks very good and that race was run in 1.25 secs fster than the course standard so a hot form race to note.

  11. Nice stats winner in Anapurna, Josh……. cannot keep Frankie out of the winners enclosure ….he just loves the big occasions.

    1. I’m sure plenty will disagree but there is Frankie proving once again he is a better jockey than Ryan.

      1. I’ve said this for a long time Nick. I was only a young un when he rode his first classic and here he is 25 years later still shoving them in. The best i have ever seen. Love him. Obviously Moore is a good jockey but I’ve seen so many of his rides that have left me baffled. The thing is you dare criticise Moore on some websites you get nothing but abuse!

      2. All have their merits and hard to call between the two but just prefer Frankie and also Jamie Spencer….he is anathema to some and is a marmite jockey…you either hate him or love him….not sure I would say I love him!!! but when he is on song is an absolute genius but it is a game of opinions so whoever you prefer just a matter of personal choice.

  12. Oaks the one to back next time provided the price is okay
    Maqsad did not stay and was going very,very easily to the 10 furlong pole, so a stiff mile at Ascot or 10 furlongs will be right up her street.
    Frankie better than Ryan bold statement, Ryan rode a text book Oaks and Pink Dogwood, was not good enough and was beaten by a better horse on the day and i did not have a bet in the race, but it was a joy to watch.
    Colin.

    1. It could be argued that Ryan went to the front too soon on Dogwood (and also on Kew Gardens?)
      Unlucky with Hateya Nick.

  13. I tend to agree Johnny. I think there was an element of wanting to recompense for Kew Gardens, unfortunately for Ryan Frankie had the cooler head, peach of a ride (talking through my pocket lol)

    1. Moi aussi! Frankie doesn’t often choose the wrong one and I thought the 9/1 available this morning was a standout price. Have backed the Maestro Mazur tip in the 7.30 at Donny of course but also hoping for a big run from Diocles of Rome as I have it in an e/w patent with Anapurna and Black Martini (won at 8/1)!

    2. Mark so you are talking through your pocket said before did not back in the race.
      Ryan had no choice but to go on when the horses around him started struggling, does he take a pull to slow his horse down ending up losing momentum, if he had done this then he would have been beaten 3 or 4 lengths.
      Frankies strong finishing mount was always going to win, in that final 1/2 furlong and Ryan could do nothing about it.
      The other side to win the race was worth £29,772 to the jockey and possibly 1% stud share to the jockey, they both wanted to win.
      Colin

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