Members Daily Post: 30/05/19 (complete)

Nick’s Tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Epsom jockey pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Lingfied

2.00 –

Templier   (micro distance) I3 12/1 

Royal Hall   (m dist) H1 I3 2/1 

3.30 – Regimented   (all Hc’s) H3 I3 2/1 

 

Yarmouth

3.50 – Conqueress   (4yo+) 80/1 

 

Carlisle

8.20 –

Kilowatt   (m age) 11/1 

Regal Mirage   (m age) 11/1 

Corton Lad   (m class) 14 9/1 

 

Sandown

None

 

Wetherby

None

 

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/67, 22p +22.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/20,8p, +2.25)

No jumps racing, so no tips from me.

Hmm, not much to say about Vaughan’s, a poor run. Given his point win was with cut i’m not minded to blame the ground or look for an excuse- he was just a tad rubbish on the day. He was keen early, and was big at his fences again. He’s clearly moderate but i’d like to think they will find a race for him somewhere as in theory he’s well handicapped.  But that was a weak chase. Maybe he will never return to that 2017 form. . I wouldn’t be surprised to see headgear at some point but it would need to work and wouldn’t be a massive positive given how he carries himself. The one thing to take away from it I suppose , again- well that’s the second winner at Warwick for Jonjo in a chase who arrived on the back of a completely abject run on paper, and where they changed tactics. I can only conclude he was half fit LTO and was given a gentle intro to the fencing game, albeit it was a much much deeper race than today and he could have been outclassed for much of it. It was his first run over fences so no issues there. Maybe Dicky did have the choice of that one and the selection. But, something I’ll keep in mind with Jonjo’s lightly raced chasers. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

2.20 Yarm – Strawberry Jack – 1.5 point WIN – 9/2 (gen) – WON 9/2>7/2, +6.75

that’s all for today, 08.00

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

The Doyler

2.50 Y – Boccaccio

4.20 Y – Velorum

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Big Meeting Pointers

Epsom : The Jockeys

A slightly different approach for this ‘big meeting’ in that I’m going to focus on a few jockeys of interest, especially given how unique this track is, where it could be argued riding ability is a bigger positive here than elsewhere. I’ve had a flick through the trainers but nothing really jumps out – the numbers are generally small enough, with the likes of AOB and ‘Johnny G’ doing well, but many winning at short odds. With that said the former has had two monster priced winners in recent years. I don’t think there are any trainer pointers of note really. The most interesting will be the races that certain trainers have targeted.

All stats for the last five Derby Meetings, to BFSP unless stated

Just the two for now, but i’ll add a few more on Thursday…

Silvester De Sousa

All rides: 49 bets / 11 wins / 20p / 22.45% sr / +21 SP / +25 BFSP / AE 1.84

  • Distance: 5f- 8.5f : 30 bets / 10 wins / 15p / 33% sr / +40 BFSP
    • 10/1+ SP: 0/8, 3p
    • Aged 3: 7/13, 9p, +38
    • Drawn 1-4: 8/18,10p, +40

Frankie Dettori

All rides: 26 bets / 5 wins / 12p / 19% sr / -7.7 SP / -7 BFSP / AE 0.99

  • Class 1 / 6/1 or shorter SP: 5/10,8p , +9
    • 7/1-12/1: 0/4,2p

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. have had 4 small bets today , i have listed them in order of preference and have staked accordingly. nothing has hit enough marks to warrant a “proper” bet but i think at the prices i should get a good run for my money. all backed ew singles and a 10p ew L15.
    Yarmouth 5-20. Rotherhithe 8-1
    Carlisle 8-20. Regal Mirage 10-1
    Yarmouth 3-50. Oceanus 22-1
    Wetherby 3-10. Beatbybeatbybeat 25-1

    1. Rotherhithe now a n/r but i still want to take the fav on in this and will transfer my allegiance to Lunar Deity 13-2

  2. COLINS BETS
    3.40 Wetherby Club Wexford BOG 8/1
    3.50 Yarmouth Couldn’t Could She BOG 5/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.50 Yarmouth Lucky Dream BOG 13/2
    5.50 Wetherby Geordielad BOG 12/1
    7.05 Sandown Fox Leicester BOG 15/8
    NEW METHOD
    2.00 Lingfield Mistress Nellie BOG 9/2
    Colin

    1. Hi, i was very keen to back Club Wexford nto after seeing the run yesterday, but worry about 1 day between races, anyone have any stats for horses running the day after a run?

      1. Hi James,
        the stats wouldn’t put you off on the flat…
        Flat handicappers / ran 1 day ago/ 2014>

        All: 52/358, 123p, 15% win SR , +31 SP, +154 BFSP (couple biggies)
        ( R Fell: 1/10,4p)

        8/1< SP: 45/207, 102p, 22% sr , +42 SP , +54 BFSP, AE 1.05 Often you can't really tell until they run sometimes, and trying to make subjective judgements on 'how hard a race' they had LTO may be futile. Some horses thrive on racing, he may be one! He does appear to enjoy a quick turnaround, 3/16,7p in handicaps when returning within 10 days.

        1. Well that went to plan gents! Job done. No shock I suppose, first time he’s raced on officially GF since his last win. Well handicapped with claim, go record quick turnaround, those supporting stats, yard going well etc, excuse yesterday, but ran well to a point. This flat game is easy!! Ahem. haha.

          1. Thanks Colin, Josh and James, a nice winner I would not have had without your exchange, cheers 🙂

          2. Yep, these roger fell horses are on fire, he seems to run them into form, I have miss ranger in the 850 Carl to come, cheers

      1. Thanks Mark you know where club wexford came from had already done the work thats why i put it as a bet, and Colins bets are + 30 points up this month, wondering why i bother, also Elite is only – 2 points so far this month with 2 to run later.
        Will put them up tomorrow and then will review.
        Colin.

  3. Thanks for this Josh, extremely helpful, wasn’t expecting a 1day turnaround to look that good so will go in again. Probably be a non runner now :). Thanks again to you and Colin of course

    1. I may have to join you for an interest nibble. All his best form on GF, so ground valid excuse for yesterday and went well for a time, also got the 5lb off today. And it’s not impossible that run brought him forward /revs him up – had 23 days off after seasonal return, maybe they know he likes to return quick and think yesterday may have got him spot on who knows. Looks a very winnable race, he won’t be far away if he runs up to his best against that lot. Bol!

  4. Will post the ‘no form’ bets here today as a tester. The problem for me with posting them is that due to the fact that it’s a completely mathematical method, non runners have a serious effect on which horses qualify as bets.

    For example in the 2.20 Tulloona was withdrawn over night and consequently reduced the number of runners to 7. So this morning the possibilities pop up on the 7 runner race program, only this time No Thanks has gone (was a qualifier last night), In this case it’s a good thing cos we have 2 other qualifiers and if Tuloona had been running it would have meant a possible 3 horse race to cover. So now it’s only 2 possible bets. John Clare & Molly’s Game. The SPR values for Yarmouth are 1 – 4 that means that both horses are possibilities but only Molly’s Game qualifies because the value for SPR 1 (Fav’) is 31.76% which suggests that John Clare is well overpriced at 11/10 and therefore doesn’t qualify in this case.

    Things could change in that there could be another withdrawal or John Clare could drift out, but I’d be happy to let the latter case go as drifting fav’s don’t make money long term. So for the 2.20 the bet will be Molly’s Game as long as there are no further withdrawals.

    This is the reason as to why it’s difficult to put them all up in advance which is why I’ve offered this race up as a demonstration so as to give anyone who is thinking of following them an insight into how they are determined. If you are following bet small stakes as sometimes there will be two or three in the same race, we just got lucky here in this example. Races today are 2.20, 4.50, 5.00, 6.30, 7.05 & 7.35. Yesterday there were none. I’ll put them up in here but not on TC page about 1/2 an hour before post time. Remember that horses can still get withdrawn right up till the off and occasionally one will. It doesn’t always change anything but sometimes it will. Hopefully in the long term it won’t make a great deal of difference to the bottom line as winners will be had that shouldn’t have been backed which should offset things if only to a break even state.

    Remember I’m calling them ‘no form’ bets for a good reason. So although mathematically I’m happy that it all stacks up or else I wouldn’t be backing them myself, it still has to be regarded as purely experimental until the money is in the bank. So stake cautiously.

    1. Hi Tim. Non-runners are an everyday hazard which can frustrate but occasionally benefit. I think if you put them up in two batches as you have been doing recently for afternoon and evening racing, we have to accept NR’s as an occupational hazard or wait it out till just before the off or use BSP.

      Thanks for all this work you are doing.

      1. Don’t thank me yet Ken…. I’ve not made myself or anyone else much anything out of my foray into Hcp’s so far. I can’t really do that as I’m not planning to do them for myself up until maybe one hour before the off. I need to keep mornings relatively free for the non Hcp bets as they are fairly time consuming. I’d guess about 30-40 minutes a race is about the average time spent.

        Best I can do is put up the list of races on this board in the morning so people can plan a little and then maybe post them about 1 hour before each race so as to give time for folks to see ’em. Maybe J Dub needs to consider the benefits a phone app for his site would bring. 😉 Ha ha!

        1. yea that idea is loitering on my long list of possible enhancements, noted! 🙂 I will enhance the comments section, as I think the one bit of kit I was looking at meant you could follow certain contributors, and get email alerts when updated comments etc – unless i’m making that up but could be a step in right direction.

          1. That would be terrific if you can do this Josh, although I dare say my golfing buddies might object if my phone keeps pinging during a round 🙂

  5. Sounds interesting Tim. Does this mean you have binned the other two systems off for the time being?(HCP and non HCP bets) , sorry if I’ve missed a post from you explaining.

    1. Hi Stan… was a fair old discussion on yesterday’s member’s page that explains where I’m at but in a nutshell…. The new debutantes season starts on June 1st so we are entering the busy time for my non hcp bets. I do best when they are fresh and come the end of January things get thin for me as most of them have become too exposed by then. On the HCP bets I have discovered that trying to apply any kind of form based strategy is detrimental to just using the mathematical framework that I use for the non hcp bets, so basically I’ve just decided to just go with the maths and allow uncertainty to do the rest. If you read yesterday’s posts you will get the full unabridged version with comments from Josh and Colin that go into more detail. So HCP bets are now termed as NF or ‘no form’ bets from now on.

      1. Great, thanks for clearing that up. Looking forward to seeing how this pans out. And good luck for the ‘new’ season. I actually go on holiday for a week on Saturday but I’ll I’ve got my VPN ready so should be able to put my bets on out there (Spain). I think putting up the race times in the morning would be ideal as then people know what time to check back in to see your posts nearer race time.

  6. Thanks Josh for giving Jamesm the update on one day runners, and certain trainers excel in running their horses again it is simple commonsense they know the horse is fit and mostly the lower grade horses only hold their fitness for a few weeks.
    Mark Johnson in my eye is a master of doing this, even NH years ago Martin Pipe did this because his horses were always fitter than any other trainers at that time.
    David Chapman was a master as well if you have time checkout his grandaughter Ruth Carr success rate for they normally follow their mentors methods.
    For you mature racing fans memory lane Chaplins Club and Glencroft two of David Chapmans regular runners they seemed to run every week and did they win.
    Colin.

  7. Jamie Osbourne
    Royal Hunt Cup Ascot 19th June
    Needs Rain if Raising Sand gets it then he has a massive chance so watch the weather.
    JO runners today leave alone
    Charles Hills will keep my eye on the betting 4.00 Lingfield Temujin if they back it then so will i, going up in distance to 1mile 1 furlong two attempts at a mile not sure it will stay but Charles Hills knows far more than me! beaten fav over a mile last time out.
    Colin

    1. Yarm’ 4.50 Love Your Work……… NF
      Yarm’ 4.50 Greek Kodiac…………. NF
      Yarm’ 4.50 Sonja Henry………….. NF
      Ling’ 5.00 Bequest………………… NF

      3 in the 4.50 and this kind of thing happens fairly often so bear it in mind when devising your stakes. Only the one in the 5.00 and same for the 6.30 I notice, although I haven’t run it yet so we might not be on it if it doesn’t make the cut.

      1. I’ve been following patiently mate but if this starts throwing up 3 in an 8 runner race i think I will just stick to the non-handicap ones and see how you get on with the rest in 6 months. Its a little disappointing you’ve been chopping and changing after such a short period of time instead of giving it six months but I guess that’s my fault diving straight in.

        1. I accept what your saying Nick but I have done everything I can to prevent multiple bets using form lines to try to narrow them down. It’s not like it’s a surprise cos I raised the problem a while ago on here when I likened it to ‘George’s list’. It’s just that when you see the profit it makes just taking them without applying any form it just frustrates me. See yesterday’s member’s page. Also form analysis is not really practical without compromising the non hcp bets that I will be starting soon.

          I won’t be posting these on the TC page cos they will use up my allowance of 120 bets in a fortnight, so it will be novice no hcp on the TC page and the NF bets on the member’s page.

          1. Sand’ 7.35 Pour Me A Drink……… NF *(If any of the top 3 in the market are withdrawn inc’ PMAD then Emirates Knight will become a qualifier too).

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