Members Daily Post: 29/05/19 (complete)

Daily Tip x1 (+write up), Nick’s Tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newton Abbot

1.00 –

Gentleman Jon   (micro runs)  w2  9/1

Beau Du Brizais   (m runs)  w1 H1 I1 Evens

3.00 –

Show On The Road   (m runs) I3 6/1

Ballygown Bay   (m runs) 6/1

Sizing At Midnight   (m class)  w1 H1  2/1

Pointed and Sharp   (m runs) 11/1 S2

 

Cartmel

6.45 –

My Renaissance   (all Hc’s) 9/1

Ringaringarosie   (m runs)  w1 H3 I3 7/2 3rd 

8.25 – Oksana  (all Hc’s) 6/1

 

Warwick

7.40 –

Passing Dream   (m class and age)  w1  w2 H3 I3 4/1 

So Lonely   (m dist)  w2 H1 I1 9/4 

Runasimi River   (all Hc’s) 25/1 S2A

 

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FLAT

Beverley

2.40 – Mujassim   (all Hc’s,m dist) I3 6/1 

3.10 – Dasheen   (m class) 20/1

3.40 –

Poets Dawn   (m age)  ES+ 11/2 S3A

Kingdom Brunel   (all Hc’s,m +class) I3 9/2 

 

Hamilton

2.20 –

Logi   (m class) I3 8/1 

Chookie Dunedin   (m runs) 9/1

Music Society   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+  G1 9/1 S3A S6  4th 10/1 

Rolladice   (all Hc’s) 12/1

Kenny The Captain   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+ 16/1 S3A 3rd

Jacobs Pillow   (m class) 25/1

Global Spirit   (all Hc’s) H3 4/1 

2.50 –

Multellie   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 16/1 S3A

Armandihan   (m TJC) H3 G3 5/1 

4.25 – War Ensign   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 12/1 S3A

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/66, 22p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/20,8p, +2.25)

 

Daily Tips

6.35 Warwick – An Laoch – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) UP 9/1

that’s all, as of 08.39, write up on the way…

The selection has the best ‘non winning’ rules form in the race and I was happy to roll the dice at 8s,in the hope he may get back to his Autumn 2017 form when with his previous yard. They didn’t keep this Point winner over hurdles for long which is a positive imo if you’ve a chaser in the making and he made a positive start to his chasing career. At Kelso, on seasonal return in 2017, he lost to a 129 rated horse (he was 105). He may have won with a run under his belt. He then chased home The Happy Chappy at Sedgefield and he may have gone closer but for an error two out. But in any case he was beaten by an in-form horse that day, who’d win a C3 at Ludlow on his next start off 116, before the wheels would come off (he hasn’t won since). Finally, on his next start, they dropped him back down in trip and he went down fighting with Cracking Find, who’s a decent yardstick (120s at the time), and a much better horse than anything in this. He was outpaced that day but plugged on. After that i’m not sure what happened, all said in the context that I’m not sure I rate the yard that highly, and they kept buggering about with his distances etc. He was PU after that Newcastle run and then had an 88 day break, so may have had a problem. He returned at Muss over 17f where he ran well, but was outpaced. They tried him in CP NTO which he seemed to detest as his jumping fell to pieces before another PU at Kelso. He then left the yard and switched to Vaughan’s.

The horse returned 38 days ago after 329 days off, his first run after a wind op, over 19f, and with a young 7lb claimer on. He was held up, was a bit scrappy at his fences (part horse, part jockey possibly) but ran ok I think, having watched it back – and in the context that he does look like a 2m7f+ horse. He was outpaced a tad there turning for home and no doubt needed the run also. He should strip fitter, steps up to 3 miles, Johns takes over and the yard are going well enough. Vaughan is 1/13 with his handicap chasers here, 1/4 over 3 miles. They tend to win or PU! Interestingly that win was in a C4 novice handicap chase. I’ve watched plenty of his races back and his jumping is solid- he’s a bit big at a few but at his best is very safe. I’m hoping Johns has done most of the work on him at home, and will get him jumping. Those three good runs discussed hit some RPRs (115-117s) that all the oppo in this could only dream of, based on what they’ve done to date. I do have an attitude / resolution question, but at the odds was happy to play. I’m slightly uneasy with his head carriage but he was entitled to be beaten by said horses in those three good runs of his, so I don’t want to be too harsh at the price, and he did win a point. He is well handicapped, and travels/jumps well enough to win chases, it’s just if Vaughan can find the key to unlock his talent.

Tactically – well this race is interesting. Belmont Park will try and lead, if he can jump/stay there, and then the rest will sort themselves out. I hope they don’t anchor mine as he is versatile, or has been in the past, but at his best he travels well and this lot could be closely bunched through this.

The dangers…

Well it isn’t the best of races. I like Tanrudy because he has some decent Pointing form (12 L behind Angles Breath for example) but clearly hasn’t transferred that to rules yet. I thought his price was about right for one who hasn’t won a race in his life yet, and has to prove that he stays. There were mixed messages from his run at Worc, stamina wise. He is a superb jumper of a fence to my eye, having watched his last two runs, and that should stand him in good stead. His last run was a school around really, up against far superior horses. Good placing in the sense it allowed him to gain chase experience on track without affecting his mark. His legs couldn’t go any quicker. He should have chases in him.

The Manuscript- well, there could be some ‘patchy’ rain arriving mid afternoon – on what is likely heavily watered ground! So, if this turns into Uttoxeter’s pudding ground, he’d probably be the one to beat given his hurdles win was on soft. He may well need the rain. He is interesting given that he has a win under rules, second run over fences. He has a similar profile to Jonjo’s chase winner here a few days back, who stepped forward from an abysmal run at Uttoxeter. Albeit he had a headgear/jockey change. He was racing up against horses 25lb superior to him on ratings that day and maybe just couldn’t keep up. But it was woeful. We could see a different horse here and he will stay. I suppose on that basis , and given the yard’s form/record here, that makes him interesting. But, that run was poor, and he isn’t a 14s shot here. He’s 4s. He can beat me at that price. Dicky may be more aggressive on him – that worked wonders for that winner here under Junior, as it did for Sackett at Cartmel (these are animals, not robots). I’m not sure if Dicky had the choice of this one over mine – i’m not 100% he gets first refusal at Vaughan’s, more so if he’s called upon/asked to ride and doesn’t have a ride for Hobbs, he would do so. But he did ride Jonjo’s LTO. At the prices I won’t overthink that.

I can leave Definately Vinnie and Phoenix Rock at their prices. The latter UR at the last fence down the back here LTO when starting to motor, and would have placed I suspect, maybe ahead of the former in that race. But they are what they are I think and are open to attack from something that could be better. PR is rated in the 70s.  I can leave Lucky Jim after his break and likewise Belmont Park,albeit 10s+ is getting a bit big. He is now 0/12 in his career, 0/7,2p over fences, and his best placed form is rubbish, open to attack from something more interesting in this.

So, i’d like to think this is between Tanrudy , The Manuscript (esp if it rains) and the selection. At the odds I had to play as he’s got a greater chance than 11% of taking this, i’d put him nearer 9/2, and IF he repeated those three good runs, he should be fav. I’d like to see him backed but we shall see. He is the right bet in this at the prices I think. Fingers crossed. (and if this doesn’t ride Good come race time, that’s a big question/potential negative)

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

2.10 Bev – Cuppacoco  – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen) 2nd, head, +2 

2.20 Ham – Dirchill – 1 point EW – 14/1 (gen) (1/5, 4p, gen) UP , -2 

2.40 Bev – Gabrial The Tiger – 1 point EW – 13/2 (UniB) 6/1 (Bet365/WH/BV) WON 6/1>11/2, +7.2 

1/3, 2p, +7.2 

that’s all for today, as of 08.13

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (28/1< guide)

12.00 NA – Broke Away 3rd

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

1.00 NA – San Satiro UP

Johnson/Daly (16/1< guide)

6.00 Warw – Finalshot

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

6.45 Cart – Ringaringarosie

7.10 Warw – Alltimegold

 

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

7.40 Warw – So Lonley

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Race Analysis Chat…  I thought it may be informative to discuss your approach to race analysis, if indeed you have one! 🙂 This poll is only a bit of fun but I thought i’d start with a discussion of ‘starting points’ and your ‘ways in’ to analysing a race/horse etc. I’m intrigued to see how many do what etc. You can select up to three options in the poll below if you wish…

The Comments…  If you are so minded, by all means post a comment as to what approach you take to race analysis, including ‘ways’ in, but also what else you look for, or what boxes a horse has to tick for you, inc what race types you target. I thought it may be interesting enough given the brain power out there, and gives us something else to ponder other than ‘selections’ etc.

 

[poll id=”27″]

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

32 Responses

  1. i was hoping to go to Beverley today and if i can make it for the 2-10 i still might, had made a few notes just in case so here’s my musings.
    2-10. Pearl Noir 11-1 wh 5 places, has improved last 2 runs and looks ready to strike.
    2-40. Ambushmah 9-2 , has a solid chance up 3lb after c&d win lto but has won from higher marks
    3-10. Dasheen 22-1, would have liked to see a bit more rain but still looks to have good ew claims.
    3-40. Ghayyar 4-1,6lb lower than last c&d win and seems to be running into some form,cheekpieces added to usual tongue-tie
    4-10 . Kilbaha Lady 7-1, ultra consistent but might be in the hands of handicapper now, would have liked to see cheekpieces reapplied could still take chance in a very open race.

    1. Have fun Geoff, Cartmel always a good visit (well i’ve only been once but was great fun and need to return!)

      I did have a flick through card for interest more than anything… in 5.40 I did like Bazarov to try and make all at 4s, and i’m a bit confused as to why the old boy Lough Kent is 12s?? Rediscovered form LTO and ran on there as if this trip would be within range. He may be worth an EW nibble at price. He’s clearly a thinker now I suspect but if he repeated that run LTO he’d go close here.

      in the 6.45 I did think Ringaringarosie may be the one to beat given she’s hit form, won well enough LTO, races prominently, yard do well here, and has youth on her side. She looked the most solid/who’s also open to further progress. Oliver’s Gold prob one for the place pot given his consistency, but isnt’ getting any younger, and looks short enough for a HU chaser, but a repeat of recent runs may be good enough, however open to attack from something climbing the ratings.

      8.25 looks a minefield, having just looked briefly, if I was trackside i’d be throwing something at Canford Thompson, Richard Strauss and Oksana, all around 8s, in the hope one takes it and pays for a round of beers/a re-stock of sticky toffee pudding!! 🙂

      Josh

  2. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    W 6.35 – Belmont Park on 4th run @ 10
    BRT
    N 1.00 – Allelu Alleluia on 1st run @ 11/4

  3. Josh
    Ref bookmakers will reply in a few days for yesterday arrived home switched on computer no response rang my son good fortune he had decided to have tea with his mum before going back to Nottingham.
    Thinks the hard drive gone ordered one delivery today and he will come home on Friday night to fix it.
    The computer using at moment was last used in 2008 and the fan does not work properly so have to keep switching it off to cool down hopefully should last a couple of days.
    Colin

  4. COLINS BETS
    3.25 Hamilton Lucky Violet BOG 6/1
    5.40 Cartmel Boruma BOG 5/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.50 Hamilton Charles Kingsley BOG 9/4
    3.40 Beverley Kingdom Brunel BOG 5/1
    NEW METHOD
    4.10 Beverley Billy Roberts BOG 9/2
    4.25 Hamilton Sunhill Lad BOG 9/1
    5.40 Cartmel Caro Des Flos BOG 14/1
    6.35 Warwick Definately Vinnie BOG 4/1
    Colin

  5. I misread the jockey booking on Machree yesterday, the claimer had been retained to reduce the weight not the mark.

    At Hamilton rain is forecast all day so I’d expect it to be soft. The 2.20 is a 6f handicap with 14 runners.

    Strong early pace advantage, no draw advantage. I used figures for good to soft and soft going, 12 to 16 runners.

    Most likely leader is Swanton Blue in stall 2, who leads 9 times out of 10. He won by 1.75l off 3lb lower last September which gives him about 3lb in hand. Had a narrow defeat on soft last season, sire stats OK on soft too. The jockey booking may look odd, 0/3 all recent, but trainer has used 16 different on 47 runners this year including one who won on his first ride. Has to be my idea of the winner.

    Once I have a fancy using pace advantage I normally stop looking but in this case one of my systems has put up Avenue Of Stars. He’s in stall 6 and will also be in the front rank. He won on soft last September by 1.5l off 4lb lower, so has 1lb in hand. Also won on AW in January off 4lb lower by 1.75l. Must have a chance today.

    I will therefore be backing both Swanton Blue and Avenue Of Stars.

  6. Cheers for Cartmel notes Josh. I’m leaning towards these.
    5.40 Boruma. Agree with Josh.
    6.10 Russian Royale. Should be way too good for the rest although it is a seller .
    6.45. Olivers Gold has great course form.
    7.20 William of Orange, tight across the front 3 in the betting but again a bit of course form.
    7.50 Man of Steel if I have a bet. Qustion mark over the odds on favourite over the trip.
    8.25 Astute Boy, 2nd run after a wind op, a return to anything like early form would make 16/1 a great each way bet.
    8.55 Noble Warrior, local trainer, won after a break previously, looks well handicapped.

  7. Still trying to get this handicap method into shape and in doing so have made an interesting discovery. On Sunday I decided to strip out all the form related input and criteria related functions. After completing it I decided to go down for refreshments whilst the machine was saving a copy of the ‘formless’ version. Came back with a cup of the finest Indian tea and decided to run it with no form just for the hell of it and after waiting quite a while it came back with some impressive figures given that without any form it’s just an exercise in theoretical mathematical probabilities.

    Anyway… we are only a couple of days away from June 1st which is the start of the new season for me and the new debutantes will arrive on the scene I won’t have any time to mess with it for a while. So I’ve decided to run it as it is. It’s producing the figures for the past years right now which I’ll put up later. Not sure just how I’ll be able to post them as it’s dynamic in the sense that if there are withdrawals in the morning it automatically recalculates the chances and by doing so a horse may disappear off the screen and sometimes (not always), is replaced by another one.

    This shouldn’t work in theory but so far I haven’t found a month that’s shown a loss. Maybe form is a constructed illusion that misleads us into thinking that with careful study we can swing the odds in our favour. If you compare actual going with form book going you will understand what I mean. Jockey/trainer tactics are also one of the many misleading factors that result in erroneous information being given to us as gospel in the holy book of form.

    I’ll be back with the past 5 seasons recorded output later in the morning.

    1. Good luck with your experiments. What would you call form? I would say, as an opinion, it is how the horse has run when encountering similar conditions, ground, track, distance, jockey. How far do you go back? I would say 2 years max. Re tactics, all races are tactical as humans are riding the horses. Without jockeys it would be an easy game. No one has cracked the game yet but all you need to do is find something that shows a profit over the relevant period. I have boiled my test algorithm down to eight weighted factors but think that likely that may be too many? less is more maybe.

      1. I’ve got it back to the start of 2016 at the moment Martin and as for form there’s absolutely nada zilch. Not even the draw is taken into account. The only thing the machine knows is how many runs the horse has had to date (with a maximum of 8 being set to qualify), because designed it for novice horses only in the first instance.

        I take your point about jockeys but every time they f*uck up with the tactics the result along with the distance beaten all goes down in the form book. Then someone like Sylvester or Oisin comes along that just gets on with it, and next time out it beats the opposition by the proverbial country mile.

        1. I just seen what I wrote there and I can only say it was supposed to be f*ck. God knows hot the u got in there.

      2. hmmm, well for what it’s worth my view on Form, is trying to judge the level of performance the horse has achieved and as such is it well handicapped in today’s race/overpriced etc – for those that are unexposed, looking at ‘hot form’ and how the races have worked out is crucial I think, to work out how competitive the race was, allied to an appreciation of what they actually achieved – which is why ive started using RPRs more, and i’ve always used HRB ratings, and also Inform etc – to try and get a grip on what a horse’s runs mean in reality/compared to today’s opposition.
        I think of trying to find their ideal conditions, or what they need in terms of going / distance /class ceilings / track etc as more horse ‘profile’, than ‘form’.
        Josh

        1. I find myself in accordance with most everything you are saying on the subject of form Josh, which is why I’m finding this whole discovery to be completely counter intuitive to everything punters are brought up to believe in. We are all using similar yardsticks, the real problem I believe is just how accurate is the information we are given to use the yardsticks on? Another thing that I’m sure of is that many horses that run are not even put into the race in the first place, but win or lose they are always put into the form book.

          I agree with Colin and his comment that these horses are not being run in such a way that benefits the punters (or handicapper’s), knowledge of their true potential. So in many respects it’s of little surprise to me that the form book is so misleading.

          1. Yep but that’s the handicap system and you have to play it – I think too many think these animals are robots, rather than a living/breathing animal that is on a journey, most still growing psychically / mentally, and for many connections haven’t worked out how to ride them to get best out of them – on flip side they know how to run/ride a horse to not get best from them once they have found key – and of course every handicapper has a ceiling, at some point you have to get the mark down etc – everything is there for us to succeed and work it out imo. Some results don’t make sense, but many do for me – and of course there is knowing the animal, and only connections will know on day if the horse is ‘up for it’ – when Super won her first race for us, after her second at Worc, I knew she was going very close just because of how she looked/behaved pre race compared to previous times i’d seen her/LTO, and how she travelled down to the start etc, and reports of how she’d matured at home/behaviour was becoming more professional with time, again she’s improved leaps and bounds on that front over the winter etc.
            The problem with looking at ‘traditional’ form – has horse won/performed in X/Y/Z is that typically you’re looking at horses that have been there and done it, and that you may be hoping repeat an old performance, and why should they do it today. All of those types of horses are open to attack from the progressive horses, who as yet may not have shown their hand, but do today because of a change in circs, or they’ve matured, or are proper fit, or have come into their coats – that’s a massive aspect, not one you can tell from sitting on the sofa of course, but have to try and piece it together. What with trainer’s being creatures of habit generally, esp with track records in certain races.
            Pace is so important and how a race is run – that leaves the form book well behind- horses that may suddenly improve given that they’ve had a relentless pace to sit off for first time, enabling them to drop heads/settle etc, which can be linked to the jockey they have and how good they are. Many results will change/flip/a horse does well today because of race conditions, or they are a front runner who’s had to use up too much gas on previous runs, or has been pestered etc, but gets a softer time today – Nick’s winner today would be an example of that, and of course he’d dropped two classes, handled ground and up against weaker oppo.
            ‘Form’ only means so much with animals – Blessed has her own mind on the game, I could tell with her behaviour pre race what sort of mood she was in/whether she’d run well or didn’t fancy it at all today. You cannot look at them like machines, and expect performance X, they are all individuals with own characters etc, but the best trainers know how to get most out of them. Sackett is another – he clearly likes feeling in control and being on the front end in a race, and may need gaps between races etc etc.
            All of that is part of the puzzle- probably why, unless you find a data driven approach like your etc, that it can help to specialise, esp if short on time.
            My chase form has improved- not only because my analysis brain is de-cluttered, but through more video analysis and use of RPRs etc. And you have to try and read between the lines, and try and form a ‘story’ for each horse and why they have run a certain way, and why today may be different. Inc form of yard , track config, pace set up etc etc etc.
            It’s why us anoraks enjoy it so much, it’s bloody tough, but great fun.
            With handicappers – once you’ve think they have hit a ceiling, it may well best to just wait until the mark comes down to winning range- knowing that the trainer knows what mark it can get competitive off, and they then need to legally get it down – wrong trip / ground/ track / tactics / easing off at home etc/ quick runs/ not enough time between races / change of work riders (we can’t tell that one- changing work ride can improve a horse’s performance- smaller yards that have young staff etc/not good riders – the amount you hear that horses run away with kids on gallops etc – thus never getting proper fit – change the rider/or change the yard, and suddenly they’re much better, as an example) . The ‘unexposed’ ones are generally the place to focus I think but at same time you still want evidence that they know how to win, and have mental capacity to put head in front and fight.

          2. Don’t find myself disagreeing with any of this either Josh, but it doesn’t negate the argument I’m making with regards to the form book. Not putting a horse into the race is in effect schooling on the racecourse (novices), OR…. cheating with intent to deceive the handicapper, (experienced horses), as far as I’m concerned. Either way it all ends up as erroneous information in the form book. I can look busy on top of a horse and fool people into thinking I’m trying hard and I’ve never held a jockey’s licence in my life.

            This past few years I’ve realised that novice horses are the best place to make profits for me so I might be looking at the whole subject from a different angle. The less runs the better I find which is why I don’t get involved much in the early part of the flat season as by then most of the novices that have any potential have already shown it and as such have been found in the market. These novice handicappers are in handicaps for a good reason and we all know what that reason is. Having said that despite the fact that a lot of them will turn out to be cliff horses there are a few that will go on to justify their stable costs by winning an odd race. All I’m saying is that I don’t believe the form book has what it takes to allow you to sort out the genuine horses that have the ability to win a race from the cliff hangers.

            Apart from blood lines, which is hardly an exact science, I only have the mathematics to go on in novice and maiden races. So maybe this is just an extension of that methodology as I did use it to provide the framework for the Handicapped races. The big surprise for me is that I expected the form book to improve upon it, but so far there is no evidence that it has done to date.

          3. yep I get what you’re saying – i suppose firstly given we have handicaps, that’s just the nature of the beast – if a horse hits a mark they can’t win off, what are they mean to do, retire it? Or just run it in it’s ideal conditions , keeps placing, mark never comes down/stays similar, still can’t win etc. All of this is there for us to see, either in data, profiles and/or video analysis. A horse can be there to run it’s race but not have the conditions to get competitive – that’s what the handicapping game is about. That’s a reality and we either accept it, or don’t bother with handicaps.

            But I think we are agreeing the ‘form book’ in that sense isn’t a great guide (or only useful to a point)- you can’t have the view of expecting a horse to run the same race each and every time, (even in ideal conditions) regardless of how a race is run/the conditions on day. They don’t exactly run under ‘lab conditions’ each and every time, hence why ‘the form book’ only gets you so far. There’s plenty of valid excuses for why form gets turned around etc.

            But yep, looking back at what a horse has achieved, and why, will only get you so far – especially if it’s void from any appreciation of today’s race/pace profile, and indeed it’s well being / profile going into today’s race. All part of the puzzle.

            I can see the attraction of why you’ve focused on novices etc previously.

    2. Tim
      Put up about some time ago form not being totally relevant, for if it was their would be no bookmakers and we would all be millionaires!
      Said then Trainers and Owners do not run their horses for punters and my view will never change, form is a basic guide more relevant in the better class races.
      Tim your success is more based on stats, i believe
      George B was stat based
      Colins bets have gone more to form must get back to the stats side
      Elite bets stat based and doing well
      New Method stats based
      Martin Coldwell doing far better on his stat based bets than his form bets
      Mark Curtis not sure if your bets are stat based or not, and missing his stats mate George who i would have been happy with up to four methods being used and cutting the volume of bets.
      From this small selection stat based bets are a must for me,all these wonderful expensive tipsters who most fail to make a profit all go on about form!
      Colin

      1. Colin….. there are no stats either. That is why as I said earlier that theoretically it should return a loss. When I said it only has the number of previous runs, that was everything. No jockeys, trainers, distances, goings, courses, (other than today’s obviously), absolutely nothing in terms of form or stats. The only thing I have adjusted in the program is the number of runs allowed in the past month, 3 months, and one year boxes so as to exclude horses that have had more than the optimum number, but it makes no reference to previous form by doing so.

        Decided to go back an extra year, just to see… here’s the figures.

        2015…. 292.17
        2016…. 693.78
        2017…. 454.63
        2018…. 515.80
        2019 (so far)…. 83.71
        All calculated to include -2% B/f commission.

        The thing I like about this is that you don’t appear to need to make any agonising decisions, all you need to do is focus on the betting side. It’s only drawback is that you have to take more than the one horse in some races, but I’m gonna get around that by reducing my stake to start and reinvest the profits in order to increase it over time.

        1. Looking forward to it Tim – hopefully previous years returns will be repeated – plenty of data to be hopeful they will

  8. Bloody hell Nick, a winner! my word you deserved that, i’ve lost count of the number of placed horses, who, with a bit more luck/rub of the green, should/would have won. Onwards.

    1. Nice to have one go in. I haven’t really read them any worse than last year but variance on the flat is a bitch! Probably got way more than my fair share of the close ones last summer but definitely feel I could have an extra 50 pts this month.

      1. Yes, well done Nick after so many recent placed efforts.
        Just a small query on the +3 profit shown for Cupacoco. I make it +2, 2pts staked, 4pts returned. Or is the P/L based on BFSP?

        1. Nope that’s my fault Johnny, I forgot to take away the -1 for the win bet. Yep, +3 returned on the 1/4 12/1 – , minus the 1 for the lost win bet. Now updated. Good spot.

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