Members Daily Post: 28/05/19 (complete)

Nick’s Tips x1, Section 1 (complete) , poll/race analysis chat…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Brighton

4.00 –

King Athelstan   (micro TJC) H1 G1 I1 5/1 S1 S4  3rd

Sussex Girl   (all Hc’s,4yo+) 12/1

4.30 –

Duchess Of Avon   (m TJC) G1 I3 11/1 S6  UP

Rivas Rob Roy   (m class and age) G3 I3 9/1 

 

Leicester

None

 

Redcar

5.55 – Supaulette   (m class)  w2 H3 G3 I3 4/1 S4 

 

Ayr

5.45 – Go Guarantor   (4yo+) 50/1

6.50 –

Intense Pleasure   (m class) 25/1

Ascot Week   (m class) I3 14/1 

War Advocate   (4yo+) H3 9/1 

Pudding Chare   (4yo+) G3 20/1 

7.20 – Chaplin Bay   (m class) I3 12/1 

8.20 – Gworn   (4yo+) 14/1

8.50 –

Home Before Dusk   (m dist) 14 H1 G3 I1 11/4 S1 S4 

Haymarket   (4yo+) 8/1

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/66, 22p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/20,8p, +2.25)

Daily Tips

None again from me, no 3m+ handicap chases of note. Should be one or two to attack on Wednesday. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

4.50 Red – Bellevarde – 1 point EW –  25/1 (betfS/PP) 22/1 (gen) UP 25/1 -2

 

that’s all for today, as of 08.05 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Race Analysis Chat…  I thought it may be informative to discuss your approach to race analysis, if indeed you have one! 🙂 This poll is only a bit of fun but I thought i’d start with a discussion of ‘starting points’ and your ‘ways in’ to analysing a race/horse etc. I’m intrigued to see how many do what etc. You can select up to three options in the poll below if you wish…

The Comments…  If you are so minded, by all means post a comment as to what approach you take to race analysis, including ‘ways’ in, but also what else you look for, or what boxes a horse has to tick for you, inc what race types you target. I thought it may be interesting enough given the brain power out there, and gives us something else to ponder other than ‘selections’ etc.

 

[poll id=”27″]

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, probably being a doofus but couldn’t get any votes to work. My first ways in are T/J combo stats then GG instant expert, followed by opinions on here. 🙂

  2. Following on from the poll I’m interested to know if anyone on here has a similar approach to me when it comes to betting.
    Basically I follow a number of tipsters currently about 7 in total. The amount I place varies between tipsters in that I follow their points systems but the one’s I feel are more consistent I place a higher £ per point bet on. I started it seriously around September this year. Starting with a bank of about £500 I made about £7k profit until the last 6 weeks when i’ve lost about £1500. It seems a number of tipsters have struggled over this period.
    Anyway fascinated to know if anyone has a similar approach? Fascinated to know everyone’s approach to be honest and am open to all advice/criticism. Feel free to tear me apart chubnuts style!

    1. Seven tipsters sound too many to me. I go with four who have shown consistent profits over a period of time. I agree on them being a starting point and you do not have to back them all each day. I also agree that 2019 has not been a great year so far for tipsters. I track over 40, dont worry I do not pay for them as I do it via Smart Betting Club, and only 7 are + 20 points profit.

      Karl Burke at Southwell:

      6.10 Monsieur Piquer;

      8.10 Fly Time.

      Good luck.

      1. Cheers martin i’ll look into smart betting club as I currently pay for 5 of them. I researched them all and 20+ points per month on average is what I look for. Most have complained that this year has been tougher. Hopefully it gets back to more profitable ways soon!

        1. Yes, and I have backed it. Apologies for not paying attention and thanks to Ken for using his eyes correctly.

  3. Draw downs are a fact of life Zico. It’s how you deal with them that will ultimately determine whether you are profitable in the long run. That’s my experience anyway. There’s a lot to be said for the portfolio approach.

    1. Yeah totally agree it’s 95% in the head this game! I’ve been betting for a long time but due to a change in circumstances have started taking it more seriously.

  4. not much to go at today just one i like the look of and a have a £5 free bet so it’s £2-50 ew Seen The Lyte Redcar 4-50

  5. COLINS BETS
    2.00 Brighton Tarrzan BOG 3/1
    3.50 Redcar Zodiakos BOG 9/2
    7.20 Ayr Lucky Violet BOG 12/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.20 Redcar Rich Cummins BOG 5/2
    7.10 Southwell Qaaraat BOG 12/1
    7.40 Southwell Gunmaker BOG 4/1
    NEW METHOD
    2.00 Brighton Tarrzan BOG 3/1
    2.10 Leicester Beryl The Petal BOG 2/1
    6.40 Southwell Siyahamba BOG 10/1
    7.40 Liamba BOG 4/1
    Colin

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    B 3.30 – Kachunmba on 3rd run @ 9/4
    L 3.40 – Biotic on 5th run @ 7
    B 8.00 – Icantsay on 1st run @ 16
    A 8.50 – Hillgrove Angel on 4th run @ 14
    Festival/BRT
    B 8.00 – De Name Escapes Me on 1st run @ 12
    …………Wishmoor on 2nd run @ 40
    3m+
    B 8.00 – The Gatechecker on 1st run @ 33
    GL

  7. I have many systems on Horseracebase all based on “trainers are creatures of habit”.

    I also like sprint races. Here’s my analysis of a race today.

    Redcar 4.50 5f handicap, 10 runners, good to firm.

    Have assumed good in places because light rain forecast all day. I use Geegeez Pace and Draw tabs.

    There’s an early pace advantage but no draw advantage in fields of 10. Not much data but mid-field has an advantage too. There are 3 potential leaders based on their last 4 runs.

    Bellevarde looks a possible to lead but the jockey booking is odd, he’s 0/7, no ride for the stable since September. It suggests to me that the horse is on a career high turf mark and the mission is to get it down.

    Machree led all the way 4 runs back and, having also won narrowly on the AW since, is now 7lb higher than a 0.75l win. Again the jockey booking suggests not interested in leading today.

    Fair Cop has led recently but not until after 2f last time when she won by 1.5l off 6lb lower. Most likely leader today. That rise might not stop her winning, it’ll be close, but 3/1 is a lunatic price. Not a bet.

    That exhausts the front runners. I then use Instant Expert to see that Betsey Trotter is 3lb better than her last win, makes her best handicapped in the race. She is also likely to run in mid-field. The RP suggests 5f is too sharp but sire stats on HRB are better at 5f than 6f. Trainer has reasonable stats for new horses. 8/1 looks a decent price, she’s a bet.

  8. Lambourn Trainers
    5.00 Brighton Cent Flying been backed into 9/2 and Martin Dwyer is back in the plate, backed this William Muir runner last time and he was disappointed with the run and hopeful of making amends today.
    Jamie Osbourne 2 runners doubtful of a winner
    Charlie Hills not put his views up yet, anything positive should be able to put up later.
    Colin.

  9. I like to use Inform Ratings as a Starting point.
    I have done my usual E/W Lucky15 today and will explain my way in.
    6.10 Southwell, Crazy Spin 6/1. I like the M/A figure to be within 6 of the highest rated 76 is the highest Crazy Spin 72.
    I next like to see the last time out figure in red highest is 73, Crazy Spin 72.
    I also like horses who’s last 3 ratings are progressive, Crazy Spin’s are 57,63,72.
    On the AW I also like course form, Crazy Spin is the only C/D winner, the 3lb rise is far and 3lb claimer on today.
    The only negative I can see is the Draw, but we can’t have everything.

  10. Lambourn update
    Charles Hills
    4.40 Leicester Haafel BOG 10/1
    5.10 Fragrant Dawn BOG 14/1
    Both at decent prices Charles Hills is a gambling stable so if you able to take BOG lucky you.
    Colin

    1. Colin, do you have no accounts left anywhere? Not even non bog, where you can just take a price? Plenty of new names on the market etc, and plenty of bookies outside the big names cropped up, likes of Jeff Banks, Fansbet, Start Sports and many more etc – You don’t actually bet to SP do you? I assumed you’d try and take a price at some point, on the exchange, close to those prices you put up for your various methods etc? I’m just intrigued, i’d like to think you could get on somewhere, taking a price, but without BOG. I’ve had best odds guaranteed removed from a few, but the accounts are still live, and those with guaranteed min liability etc – I don’t have problems getting 20-50 on (non BOG, just take a price) with most, on day of racing, 8 onwards.

      And as an aside, do you keep any records of simply how your methods do to advised prices versus those that drift etc – it could be BOG isn’t essential, unless you’re putting up plenty who drift out and that difference over a year is substantial. You may be best recording to BFSP after comms, which i’m sure is better than industry SP over time, albeit seems betfair winners tax etc keeps creeping up for the very successful on the machine.

      If Hills is a gambling yard, and the drifters rarely win, getting on at BOG isn’t relevant as such.
      Josh

      1. Hi Josh. Pretty sure Colin uses Betfair Ex but not sure if he takes the early price or BSP. I’ve suggested he should try the new bookies. Loads out there now, some with BOG.

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