Members Daily Post: 27/05/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x3, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

 

JUMPS

Cartmel

2.45 –

Danceintothelight   (micro distance) H3 11/1 S2

Chocolat Noir   (m runs) H1 I3 6/1 WON

Buckeye Shan   (all Hc’s,HcH)  ES+ 9/2 S3A  UP

3.20 –

Henllan Harri   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 11/2 S3A UP

Cruising Bye   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I1 6/1 S3A# 2nd 6/1 

4.30 – Dr Robin   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 8/1 S3A

5.40 – Bang Bang Rosie   (all Hc’s,HcH)  ES+ I3 5/1 S3A

 

Huntingdon

3.15 – Chivers   (m’s dist and runs) H3 I1 7/2 

4.25 –

TelArt   (m class) H3 7/2 

Mr Fickle   (HcH,m runs) I3 9/1  

Brunel Woods   (all Hc’s,m class) H3 8/1 

Flashman   (HcH,m runs) 33/1

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FLAT

Leicester

None

 

Redcar

4.10 – Ventura Knight   (all Hc’s,m going if GF)  ES+ 22/1 S3A 3rd 

4.45 – Juneau   (all Hc’s,m going if GF)  ES+ G1 8/1 S3A S6 UP

5.20 – Red Seeker   (m class) G3 10/1 

 

Windsor

4.15 – He’s Amazing   (all Hc’s)  w1  ES+ H3 G3 5/2 S3A# UP

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/66, 22p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/20,8p, +2.25)

Daily Tips

None.

Review…

Well I don’t like to look for excuses but that handicap chase returned a winning time that was a full 1 minute and 6 seconds above standard! Clearly it may have just been a slow time generally but what with the other times on the card I think it’s safe to say that it wasn’t Good. While I don’t wish to channel my inner Colin, I can’t believe the showers would have been enough to turn it that testing. It would appear to have been riding soft enough, which I assume was the reason for the two withdrawals. My selection was never really travelling and I knew my fate after 3f, given how he was being niggled. Exxaro is a proper summer good ground horse also and he was never going a yard either – while his run may have come too soon, I suspect he hated conditions. He’s one to watch NTO esp if dropped into a weak enough C4 on proper summer racing ground. I’ve no idea if they were watering in the lead up to the meeting, or watered far too much. It’s tricky. Maybe they just got more rain than I could account for. If i’d have known the likely time of that race before I looked at it, i’d have been disappointed in myself if I wasn’t closer to the winner, at his odds. He had the best proper soft ground chase form in the race, esp over that trip – Hereford/Chepstow soft. The only thing I’ll dwell on with Gardniers  Hill is that my suspicions as per his run LTO may have been correct, in that the bad early error just knocked his rhythm and he was never in it after that really, a run to ignore, and he did plug on. He is a rhythm horse and on Sunday he was able to lob along at his own pace, and race closer to it than he usually does. His chase form had been iffy since his last win in November, but it could also be that he doesn’t like carrying much weight, and that difference is what helped him overhaul the Pipe horse late on in that ground (whatever that going was, but it wasn’t Good) And he clearly just has the odd off day.  We move on. But, it is worth noting that this meeting was run on ground with much more juice in it than the official record will show and that info could be important in the weeks ahead. These frustrations are part of the game. 

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

3.35 Red – Abate – 1 point EW – 8/1 (bet365/SB) 15/2 (BV/Uni/BetW) 3rd, 6/1 dec>9/2, +0.2 

4.10 Red – Leroy Leroy – 1 point EW – 20/1 (SB/WH/BV- all 1/5 4p) 20/1 (bet365) 2nd , +3 

5.25 Wind – My Lady Claire – 1 point EW  – 12/1 (SB/Lad/Coral- all 1/5,4p) 12/1 (bet365)

that’s all for today, as of 10.15 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers 

1.35 Hunt – Reckless Behaviour UP

Jockey/Chasers

3.20 Cart – Cruising Bye (9/1< best) 2nd

4.30 Cart – Dr Robin (9/1< best) UP

Trainers to follow

3.15 Hunt – Cosmic King (11/1< guide)

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

5.40 Cart – Final Reminder

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

34 Responses

  1. bear with me as this is betting related, just downloaded a nice little program that can spot the difference between http cookies and tracking cookies such as IEsnare which most bookies deny they use but today both Betfair (Paddypower) and Betvictor tried to place it on my pc and i have the log to prove it. must admit it’s not that much of an issue for me as 18 months ago i installed a bit of kit that stops IEsnare from reporting back. the real issue is that this behaviour by bookmakers could be in breach of the data protection act if they don’t have permission to insert it. I have emailed Betfair asking for an explanation of their actions and opinion on whether it is legal or not, i await their reply.

      1. Well done Martin. I’ll be intrigued to see if you get a response. Agree that it is scandalous. I also run the fix that prevents iesnare from reporting, but I don’t keep abreast of what other tracking software is available to bookies and others. Is anyone aware of similar trackers? And how to deal with them?

          1. just google iesnare fix it’s an easy 5 step process , i used the one from an article on caanberry .com What Is IESNARE ? (+Proven Method To Block It).

          2. i’m trialing Avast anti track premium if i want to keep it after the 30 days it’s about £20 a year, plus side you can see all the attempts it blocks minus side pages take about 3 seconds longer to load and one or two pages don’t load properly in chrome but no problems with firefox or epic.

          3. Ways to keep iesnare and co from infiltrating your pc/laptop
            Either/or
            1. Use Epic Browser
            2. Use Firefox and completely delete Flashplayer from pc
            3. Search ‘iesnare fix’ on Geegeez and carefully follow instructions. Looks a lot harder to do than it really is but take your time.
            UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES USE CHROME OR IE.

          4. Hit wrong key…………It is not only bookies that use these spybots. Some major supermarkets/retailers use them so don’t think you only need to be on guard when betting.

          5. Greg…. A VPN is only a cloaking device so as to allow you to access a website without disclosing your IP address or your physical location. It doesn’t in any way prevent websites from placing spyware cookies on your PC. Check your file system for iesnare. Incidentally the ‘ie’ bit of iesnare stands for internet explorer. As Titus points out, the key to blocking it is down to using the right browser.

        1. download Epic browser…blocks trackers, provides free encrypted international options …free software…i have used this ever since being hacked so no problems other than some sites recognise you are blocking them and may not give you access but try it…also use tracker hunting software to uninstall anything that gets through but latter has not detected any spyware for over a year now so Epic blocking seems to have done the trick. Just type in Epic in your current browser and it should appear in the search engine.

          1. If using Epic: Set default vpn to uk and you’ll have no probs with bookies sites. Only racing site I’ve used that won’t load without messing with settings is oddschecker. Tells you all you need to know about that site since skybet took over.

            Chrome: You can go through the ‘fix’ to rid pc of iesnare, block flash from accepting it and next time chrome updates you can be back to square one cos it re-installs default flash with settings fully open.

            Firefox: Always a good idea to change ‘privacy’ settings……custom/block/cookies/all third party.

  2. had a look through the flat racing and nothing stands out that i would want to risk a proper bet on, just one to note Leicester 1-45. Quixote 33-1 + if returning to anything like 2017 form would smash these but has obviously had problems and i’m just having a small risky ew.
    will try to go through summer jumps later time allowing.

    1. just 2 at Cartmel
      2-45. Martha’s Benefit 14-1
      3-20. Mercers Court 11-1
      both 1/2 pt ew.

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.45 – Forbidding on 3rd run @ 25
    ………..Reivers Lodge on 8th run @ 16
    ………..Grand Enterprise on 2nd run @ 40
    Festival
    R 4.10 – Tricorn on 4th and 6th run @ 66
    3m+
    C 3.20 – Henllan Hari on 3rd run @ 7
    ………..Firebird Flyer on 4th run @ 13/2
    GL

  4. Pretty rubbish day in terms of quality today in races I like to punt on, so nothing from me today.

  5. Well after yesterdays success, thought I`d take the big veteran chase on at Cartmel.
    I know these races are the sprint equivalent on the flat, in that they beat each other on a regular basis and you never really know which one is going to win, but, I like them.
    I believe Josh has gone off them, but, I find them interesting and infuriating at the same time…
    So, here we go…
    15:20 Cartmel
    Now, before we start, this course if you didn`t know is up in the Lake District area, it has rained most of the weekend and today they are due more. I read Josh saying about Uttoxeter and the going and I must agree, we as punters should really have access to this kind of information, but, even in this modern age we do not know what the going is from morning till afternoon, even at the top courses this is still glossed over along with moving stalls / fences / hurdles and most annoyingly rails…
    I may get this wrong, but, i would side with it being nearer to good / good-soft and therefore that changes the complexion of the race. It`s what we do as punters and like i said I may have read it wrong and if you want to watch the first few races and see if it is easing up before betting I wouldn`t put you off.
    FIREBIRD FLYER 7/1 gen 1pt win
    This horse loves a good distance race, has a really high cruising speed/ pace on softish ground and I feel hasn`t been sent up here just to make up the numbers, the favourite for me is suspect and this fella will be switched off for most of this race, as Cartmel has a really tight track I think most of them will get dizzy, this fella likes tight tracks and softer ground, so, more rain the better for him. Miss Williams gets on really well with him and I can just see him nicking this one, albeit a fight of the ladies may ensue with my next one…
    MERCERS COURT 11/1 gen 1pt win
    This one is an odd one, he loves Fontwell and has ran creditably in fourth here against decent opposition, the winner of that race loves Cartmel when it`s good or better, which i think was MC`s undoing last time he came here. Watching the race back I felt it was fairly rattling that day and on this easier ground I feel Bryony will just switch him off, but his speed on this good surface will see him and Bryony home. So long as it doesn`t go sloppy, otherwise this will be a farce, it get`s really sloppy really quickly at Cartmel, so, as I said keep an eye on the weather and watch the first few races before playing. I can`t see the price moving much on these till nearer the start.

    As always hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    1. bets of luck Stewart – oh i enjoy watching them and obv hope the S3A# wins haha, but on the basis that when they reach this age they are generally inconsistent and it depends even more so on what side of the stable they’ve rolled out of, it does make them feel more open – in part I think I feared the impact of looking at these races and the effect on my ‘normal’ chase analysis, and making too many excuses/going for more older chasers, which isn’t the end to focus generally in those. I can see Mercers responding to Bryony, as she can just spark a horse into life at times it seems.

      Well done with Royal V yesterday, some intriguing thinking/analysis there in terms of undulations, stop start, rhythm etc. I’d be interested in Exxaro NTO on proper Good in a class 4, as I think you can just put a line through that run given the ground and CT will find a race for him this summer I suspect.

      Josh

    2. I have always been an advocate of what Nick Mordin first brought to these shores in his book Betting for a living, it`s a really interesting read if you haven`t already looked at it. Most of the stuff he goes on about is his own personal way of looking at things, but, when he goes into depth about file cards and horses for certain courses e.g. undulations, flat, tight, galloping etc, it really struck a chord with me and I have used it in race watching ever since. UK and Irish courses are unique in each and every way, but, some of them favour certain horses rather than others, you also have to factor in going, which as I said and you have ascertained to is a moot point, especially when we don`t know what it will be from pillar to post. Think I mentioned the Haydock debacle with Henry Cecil all those years ago and the staff don`t seem that interested these days either…I know there will be professional individuals out there, but, at some of the tracks you know they won`t / don`t really care if the punter/trainer/etc is informed or not! (Sometimes i believe this is why we have reams of non-runners, maybe it isn`t, but, again like I said if there not informing the trainer before they set off to a racecourse, punters have no chance!!).
      As for the veteran chases, yes, your right Josh, it does depend what side of the stable they get out of, still find them interesting though and if I do unearth any little gems of “ways in” , will share them on here!
      One last point on Nick Mordin, in his book he was banging on about horses for courses, the Docklands Express page is an example of a horse that loved tight tracks and you can see the race on You Tube from 1992, The Racing Post Chase to see his explanation of how DE loved Kempton, but, had ran a shocker at Haydock a couple of weeks before, so, the price of 12/1 early doors was value considering he had won the race the year before?? you can see how Anthony Tory just let the horse do his thing as he knew the old fella knew his way round the course! Thus backing up everything NM said he would do, Tony Paley on twitter has the excerpt of the page if anyone wants to go and have a look at the explanation Nick gave!!

      1. I have Nick Mordin’s betting for a living here. Is of little use now as the information age has rendered a lot of his methods as obsolete, however the general principles he put forward in the book remain the same. You just need to re-invent them.

        Damned good read too.

        1. Think most of his principles can be transferred over to modern methods, the ATR website is really good at filtering form, much better than RP and at the moment free, apart from an initial login etc. The only thing Mordin didn`t factor in was jockey / trainer form etc, he looked purely at the horse and what it had achieved, sometimes, i believe you need to look at that factor, as Josh does with a lot of his findings research etc. For that I will be grateful and it is one of the reasons I subscribe on here!
          Nick (Our Nick, unless you are Nick Mordin in disguise and then I will want to shake your hand and buy you a few drinks?), is also different gravy and his musings along with Josh`s and everyone else`s on here make for varied insights in to how we attack racing on a daily/weekly basis!
          Think you need all these to factor in the “I will pick this out because!?” .
          If you factor too much of it in though, you end up thinking…I missed this winner that such and such picked…or that one, or that one..It can get a bit kid in a sweet shop sometimes, which is why i think you have to take it all as advice and then make your own decision and stick to it!

      2. For understanding the basics of pace in flat races ‘Bauer on Speed’ is a good read. A bit outdated nowadays but does teach you the basics of pace judgement and its meaning. Likely a bit pricey these days on Amazon etc.

        For those interested in sports betting there is a book out now, based upon the american market but can be applied to the sports we love in the UK. It is ‘The logic of sports betting’ and is on Amazon and reasonable value. More for the person into sports betting already than a beginner I would say.

        1. Agree with Josh, Mordin goes on about Bauer as his main influence and I have read that also, there are so many teachers out there, we all have to take these teachings and add our own musings. They are very good though!

      3. Superb book, one of the first, if not the first, I ever read – his thoughts on handicap chases especially (think staying chasers may have been a focus) is one of reasons I got attached to them I think – and his thoughts on ‘profiling’ etc. I think for Jumps racing, a lot of it is still very useful, and provides a solid foundation in how to think/attack those. Because Jumping is so important, as is youth arguably and durability, the ‘old’ ways of video analysis and simply watching chasers races, will always be important – and I don’t think that will change, despite the onset of data etc etc – and pace/positioning. And jockeyship obv linked to all of those factors. My increasing use of Racing post Ratings (which is thanks to the interview Paul Kealy did on Star Sports -all of those are worth watching and i’ve loads to catch up on, ‘our own’ Adam Norman is the latest subject of those) helps to frame a horses ability and what they’ve achieved etc when a simple look at ‘class’ etc cannot suffice. All good stuff.

        Oh, and as with yesterday , I appreciated your musings on what price you thought a horse should be, which adds plenty of weight to why you deem something ‘value’ etc, and would appear that your value eyes for your two picks today are working, come what may.

  6. COLINS BETS
    1.35 Huntingdon Reckless Behavior BOG 7/2
    1.55 Windsor Red Alert BOG 6/1
    4.55 Chelmsford Javelin BOG 4/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Huntingdon Chivers BOG 2/1
    4.10 Redcar Al Muffrih BOG 15/8
    NEW METHOD
    1.45 Leicester Kodiak Harbour BOG 6/1
    2.00 Chelmsford Nicky Baby BOG 9/2
    2.35 Chelmsford Holy Tiber BOG 7/1
    2.40 Huntindon Gin and Tonic BOG 13/2
    2.45 Cartmel Frightened Rabbit BOG 4/1
    3.35 Redcar Arishka BOG 6/1
    4.10 Redcar Epaulement BOG 9/2
    4.25 Huntingdon The Accountant BOG 11/1
    4.30 Cartmel Ballyvic Boru BOG 5/2
    Colin

  7. Abate (nicks tip) went from 8/1 to 11/2 within 4 mins of bets posted (b365). That was fast.

    1. It was also tipped up by mylittletip on twitter who has a big following. So may explain quick price crash .

  8. Jamie Osbourne
    5.25 Windsor Capofaro drifting from 2/1 to 11/4 did this once before 2/1 out to 5/1 and won so this is not an issue, first time on turf could be however Jamie feels he will cope and he his due to go up 6lbs tomorrow, so they will be trying.
    Richard Hughes not come on yet but will put up later if anything, for not out today getting ready to watch the Rams beat Villa all being well! then we party!
    Colin.

  9. AW UPDATE

    Hello all, a relatively poor card for Chelmers today.

    2.35 Poppy May

    3.45 Graceful Lady and Steaming

    4.20 Sweet and Dandy

    4.55 Javelin, Gustavo Fring EW hopefully fit enough to do himself justice after 522 day absence, gulp 🙂

    Have a lovely Bank Holiday.

    1. A poor card and even poorer selections. 🙁 Where are George B’s 300 hrb systems when you need them?

  10. Lambourn Richard Hughes
    2.30 Windsor I’m Digby 5/1
    3.05 Windsor Top Breeze 13/8 says live chance
    Have backed these along with Capofaro not the juicy prices of the other day, and Charles Hills no runners today Colin

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