Members Daily Post: 26/05/19 (complete)

Daily Tips x1, Nick’s Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

2.10 – Demon Fou   (all Hc’s) H1 I1 7/4 

4.15 – (only 3 runners) 

Idliketheoption   (micro age) H3 I1 15/8 

Storm Home   (m TJC and runs) H3 9/2 

4.50 – Maebh   (m TJC) H3 I3 5/1 

5.25 – Harbour Force   (HcH)  w1 ES+H3 6/1 S3A UP

 

Kelso

None

 

Uttoxeter

4.30 –

You Say What   (m class)  w1 H3 9/4 2nd

Blairs Cove   (m age)  w1  w2  ES+H3 I1 7/4 S3A# 

Hepijeu   (m age)  w1 H1 7/1 

5.05 – Bandsman   (HcH,m age)  w1  ES+H1 I3 7/4 S3A#

5.40 – Green or Black   (m class) I1 9/1 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 12/66, 22p +23.5)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/20,8p, +2.25)

Daily Tips

4.30 Uttox – Mustmeetalady – 1 point win – 17/2 (unib) 8/1 (gen)  UP

that’s all for today, as of 09.08, write up to follow..

I don’t know why this one is 8/1. He has the best form of any of these albeit you have to go far enough back to find it – those Haydock and Donny wins would be good enough to win this I think and he arrives here on the back of his best run for ages, and the RPR of 131 is the same as Pipes LTO, and that figure is way ahead of the rest of these. He’s clearly been tricky to train and this is his 3rd run back after another short break – it could be he isn’t sound and that run LTO has taken too much out of him but he’s had 36 days to prepare for this and Jonjo is going much better than when he was last seen… for him he’s in red hot/blistering form, 5/22,10p in the last 14 days – he rarely hit’s hot streaks like this. LTO he was beaten by Minella Daddy who just galloped relentlessly and I think chasing him told late on, as he faded into 3rd but plugged on. MD franked the form for us at Aintree in a decent race, so the form is solid and he was beaten by the right horse. He also has course form, running well here once in a C2 Novice handicap. That was won by American, with Rock The Kasbah in 2nd, Crosspark in 3rd, and he was 1/2 a length behind him. The 2nd or 3rd turned out to be decent chasers. Stamina won’t be a problem. There’s a lack of front runners in this and it will be interesting to see who goes forward but he has the ability to lob along close to what pace there is and with proven stamina over further, they may even be aggressive with him. I thought he was worth chancing at the odds.

Skelton’s can beat me, which he may do. He’s progressive, in form, and unexposed over this trip. However, at his odds, he has to prove he stays which isn’t guaranteed and he’s up a fair chunk from LTO. As is Pipes and I don’t really know what he beat there. But he’s in form, and a danger. I didn’t want to be with either, but clearly won’t fall off my seat in shock if one of them takes it. Hepijeu is a bit of a rogue- well he doesn’t win very often and was lucky to do so LTO, when held in second, the horse in front falling at the last when going to win. His consistency could be rewarded but I think there are better animals in this. I wasn’t sure why Gardiners Hill should improve on his recent form, or why he’d bounce back. Maybe the early error LTO didn’t help him, but he’s usually held up and i’m not sure this will be run to suit. But i’ve seen worse 16s shots I suppose, but i’m not sure his best would be good enough to take this and needs a few to underperform.

That leaves Exxaro who is interesting but I wasn’t convinced at what is now 5s. Were he 7s/8s i’d have had a dilemma – maybe. He is only 1/19 over fences and is another who doesn’t like winning. He’s up in class from his return LTO and I thought 12 days was an odd/quick turnaround for one who was having his first run in a while, after a wind op. He is a tricky customer, or can be, and can take some knowing and TOB hasn’t ridden him before. He does hit my Tizzard summer jumping pointers… 10/34, 15p with those handicap chasers having had 1 or 2 runs only in prev 90 days, but I was happy to leave at his price. He could go close at his best, but he has enough poor runs in weaker races than this for me.

Anyway, it’s a game of price and for me the selection’s odds just look wrong to my eyes. No idea why he isn’t 5s/9/2 in this line up, on the back of that run LTO. He won’t mind any rain showers albeit if it went proper soft that would be a concern, and would improve the chances of Pipes.

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Sackett did as I hoped he would. Annoying there was a 20p R4 but still +6.4 on the race. The most pleasing aspect was seemingly assessing his PU LTO correctly. The race either came too soon on the back of a hard race/under the pump for an age at Southwell, he either didn’t like being held up/wall of horses in front, or he simply had an off day – or a mixture of the lot, as he wasn’t travelling early. When a horse is PU LTO and they make a relatively quick return to you have to assume something non-physical was the issue, but you should always want a price. I made that mistake with Mr Adjudicator at Punchestown and have done before. He was unexposed compared to the rest of the field and his best chase runs were better on the figures than most of those. Hammond’s horse ran better than I thought but he was backed in again. Bryony has won that race, given how she got him jumping. He pinged nearly every fence- one error and he may have been caught as he was at the end of his stamina there I think. He isn’t the most thorough of stayers over that trip I don’t think and probably has the pace for a stiff 2m5f race, but holding a prominent position may well be key to him. For summer jumping, that is solid form. Both the 1st and 2nd tie in with Fifty Shades, and for this time of year that is good form, the front two clear there and the fav is a decent yardstick. Onto Sunday. 

(clearly spending no time at all on a Flat Test big field handicap is just foolish, I won’t do that again, but they will always take a back seat behind the Daily Tips) 

 

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

5.05 Uttox – Mauricio – 1.5 point win – 6/1 (gen) UP

5.40 Uttox – Lyndsays Lad – 1.5 point win – 11/2 (BV/UniB/Bet365) 5/1 (others) UP

that’s all for today, 09.08

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers (12/1< guide)

4.30 Uttox – Hepijeu

Jockeys/chases

3.35 Kelso – Viens Chercer 2nd

LTO winning hurdlers

5.05 Uttox – Bandsman

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

2.35 Kelso – Lovely Schtuff 2nd

 

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.30 Uttox – Blairs Cove / Hepijeu / You Say What 2nd

 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Results/Strategies Chat 

I’ll update the main strategies at the start of June, however in the meantime i’ve been looking back at various bits and pieces.

Firstly… the ‘on the scrapheap / to be monitored’ pile…

READ HERE>>>

This just pulls together those strategies, some of which were never advised as such, that don’t look worth bothering with ‘systematically’.

It includes Flat S1 and S4 – in June I do want to look back at these and see how those under 3/1 perform, as there’s a chance they run at a loss, and that may open up options.

This document compliments the two main ones which can be found in The Key (link in section 1 above)

  • The Strategies: ‘Where To Begin’ – Jumps S1, S3A# and Flat S6 : READ HERE>>>
  • The Strategies: ‘Other Ideas’ : Jumps W2 / S3A / S2A , Flat S3A# : READ HERE>>>

 

The ‘where to begin’ strategies haven’t done much as yet in 2019, but plenty of time 🙂 Jumps S1 is on holiday as Geegeez Speed ratings don’t cover summer jumps sadly. I do intend to play around with the Inform ratings system builder to see if I should be looking at some of their other ratings to compliment the section 1 qualifiers.

Those other strategies which are showing hope ‘systematically’ are Jumps W2 and S3A. (ES+) . The latter pulled in the same profit as S3A# last year (S3A# is the same as S3A, but when there are also 2 or more ‘ratings pointers’ – the red symbols) but from many more bets. But, Jumps S3A is ticking along well this year I think, and gives you more action if you wish. All of that should hopefully make sense when flicking through the above.

Starting Points… obviously part of the aim for the various stats content is to provide a ‘way in’, for those of you who enjoy using starting points to augment your own race/horse analysis.

In terms of ‘short cuts’ for this process, you could use some of the strategy qualifiers for that purpose… given the number or winners, win%, the likes of Flat S1 , S4 and S3A# in particular could be useful to help draw up your daily ‘shortlist’, before you then get to work. Jumps w2 and S3A would work on that front also, as well as those other strategies mentioned in the ‘where to begin’ doc. At some point I intend to create some ‘play book’ documents which provide some racing analysis ideas to help with that – albeit if you absorb any of mine or Nick’s write ups etc, how we think about racing may give you some ideas- as of course all of the excellent comments and many different approaches found there.

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ODDS… I have been through various jumps strategies looking at those with morning odds (what I add next to section 1 horses around 8am) under 3/1, and 3/1 or bigger. I’ve been through all posts in 2018 etc on the hunt for some strategy gold… alas I didn’t find any!!

However… of interest…

Jumps S3A# … those with morning odds under 3/1 were 19/36, +23 points over the year… so, if you follow S3A#, I think it’s best to just follow it- don’t faff around with any self imposed price limits. Albeit that’s your choice, but in 2018 ‘shorties’ did just fine, as you can see.

‘Double Top Rated’ – I was hoping there may be a strategy lurking here for the jumps picks, (eg a section 1 qualifiers with a H1 I1, or I1 G1 etc)  but alas there isn’t. Those bigger than 3s on morning odds didn’t do that well… 7/58, 22p, -21.

Those sent off under 3/1 could well be another ‘way in’, given they were 24/57, 27p, +5. Plenty of very short ones those and not a good systematic approach, but useful to know they operate at around a 42% win SR

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The Test Zone

The various angles in here were/are only to be seen as starting points, and are in the ‘test zone’ for a reason. I’ll do a 6 month results review in early July of some of these, but for one reason or another, having flicked through…

I have dropped/will no longer be posting qualifiers for…

D McCain x2 (3 angles made up his qualifiers, one of them – top weights- is still worth posting), Paddy Brennan, R Hobson, A Honeyball and ‘The Irish Angles’

I’ll continue to post all the others, and will keep the Jumps 2018/19 Fact Sheet going for this year – many of those are still useful ‘ways in’, if not great systematically as such.

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Josh

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Hi Josh. I’m surprised you’re dropping the Paddy Brennan micro. I thought this ran at a decent profit?

    1. Not in the last 6-8 months it hasn’t I don’t think, you can see from that spreadsheet link but will get the results, wasn’t doing great to SP all in and low enough win % to not be a decent starting point I don’t think. Test zone does need a slight re fresh I think.
      I’m not sure the logic is that great now Fergal is established and Paddy’s fortunes obv tied into that and as stable jockey the ‘booking’ element doesn’t hold sway, and what with Fergal’s abilities now well established.

  2. After going to the races at Haydock yesterday I can honestly say, (even though it was a good day out and i went with my daughter and one of my best friends, so the company was spot on), that my love of flat racing has finally ended.
    It is too much about luck in my opinion, after watching the 14:50 and maybe I`m talking through my pocket, but, after the first 2 furlongs i had backed Oasis Prince and saw his chances go, before the bend as he scrimmaged and tried to battle his way into the fence position only to see the door close, after that it was a foregone conclusion he was never winning from the position he had and the jockey virtually pulled him up 1f out.
    I have watched quite a few flat races over the years and again, in my opinion, it seems as though unless it`s a race over a straight course with loads of room, there are far too many hard luck stories, boxed in, short of racing room, trapped in on the rail etc…
    So, to that end I will now be concentrating on the summer jumps, a few rules i will set myself and we shall see how I get on.
    Rule 1. Only Class 3 or above chases or hurdle races (I used grade 1-3 of the old course classification also, but, as they are dual courses and a lot of them switch to the flat at this time of year that may become difficult, will keep an eye on it over the coming months).
    Rule 2. selections limited to 2 in every race, win only also to be observed.
    Rule 3. results to run from now till end of September.(know some of you out there may take the summer jumps season till middle of October, but, have to have starting /ending rules for this experiment of mine).
    So, here goes…
    15:55 Uttoxeter
    BARTON KNOLL 11/4 gen 1pt win
    He absolutely trounced his field at Haydock and maybe good ground is the key to him, but, with softer ground expected here I would not worry too much as he travels well enough and may be a class above this field, he should just be off the pace, but as the gallop i think will be strong and will come through late on which at Uttoxeter is definitely a good place to be with these tricky fences on an undulating track…he has shortened to 5/2 now, but, i had him at 6/4, so, in my book is still value.
    ROYAL VILLAGE 7/1 365 1pt win
    Another who should relish conditions, this will be more up his street, undulations to stop/start things and will play into his hands no end. When he won at Market Rasen back in October last year, it looked as though those undulations played a part in keeping the others in check whilst he fairly whizzed over the fences and finished with some aplomb to win in my eyes really well! He is a battler and as everyone on here knows I do love a good battler of a horse!
    16:30 Uttoxeter
    YOU SAY WHAT 9/4 gen 1pt win
    This fella will love conditions today and should be out the front with everything else paddling in behind him, but, this is the jumps game and anything can happen, right….wrong, expect him to have come on from trouncing a good standard field lto with headgear on and that HG should keep him focused enough here. I had him at a shade odds on, so, the 9/4 here looks value.
    EXARRO 13/2 gen 1pt win
    second run back after a wind op and this one looks as though that has now helped, wasn`t that far behind LTO and the front two were just too good on the day, seems odd that the price on this one is so long?? I had him priced up around 3/1, so, 13/2 is deffo value for a former course and distance winner, who back on song could win this easily!

    As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever your selections are today!

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 5.25 – Midnight Gem on 8th run @ 14
    U 3.25 – Lucca Lady on 2nd run @ 7/4
    Festival/BRT
    U 2.55 – Lungarno Palace on 1st run @ 12
    3m+
    K 3.35 – Lowanbehold on 8th run @ 16
    U 4.30 – Exxaro on 6th run @ 13/2
    GL

  4. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    2.10 Fontwell Jolly Maker BOG 3/1
    5.25 Fontwell Stubborn Logic BOG 13/8
    NEW METHOD
    2.25 Uttoxeter Silent Encore BOG 9/2
    5.40 Uttoxeter Jacbequick BOG 4/1
    Profit/Loss for May so far
    Colins bets SP + 9.75 BOG + 24.191
    Elite bets SP – 16.75 BOG – 7.70
    New Method – 5.125 BOG + 1.233
    Colin

    1. Great stuff yesterday, Colin.
      Nice 16/1 winner got me out of a hole on an abject day of punting.

      Thanks again.

  5. Hi Francis
    Thanks for that yes did not go thirsty!
    The bookmakers certainly make it difficult when restrictions apply or even closed down, very hard game at SP.
    Colins bets not the best year so far and yesterdays 16/1 BFSP 28.16 much needed
    Lambourn Trainers good old Charlie Hill’s SP 16/1, BOG 20/1 BFSP 29.76 and Jamie’s backed from 12/1 to 5/1, so reading the comments well at the moment and profit in May SP 18.0 BOG 23.25.
    Cheers
    Colin

  6. on what is to be fair a pretty terrible days racing i have managed to find a couple i like at the price.
    Fontwell 5-25. Brown Bear 16-1 b365 4 places, will struggle under top weight but with the level of opposition his 3rd at Fakenham in October is probably good enough for this . normally goes well here and was brought down lto when going over c&d.
    Uttoxeter 5-40. i’ll help Nick out by going for something else, Collodi 10-1 looks overpriced and if all 8 stay in should be very good ew value.
    both 1/2 pt ew.

    1. a bit of Curragh silliness
      2-20. Burren View Lady 50-1 6 places £1 ew
      4-25. Dean Street Doll 66-1 £1 ew
      and 10p ew L15 on those 2 and the 2 above for a bit of fun.

  7. Just put mine up on the TC page only to find that 2 of ’em are Nix Pix. Hope I haven’t jinxed you there mate. (I need the winners)!

  8. Agree with Martin about the racing…always the same on a Sunday…BHA really needs to resolve this but been like this for years so do not anticipate any changes unless you get rid of the BHA and that is not going to happen….so over to Ireland to bail out the racing on Sunday as usual…Tricky card…so caution…I have had a small e/w on No Days Off in the 1.50 based purely on pedigree and price…no surprise to see New World Tapestry in the mix along with Tootick but you cannot back them all so No Days Off for me. Gd lck if playing today on whatever you back.

    1. Impressive win by Arizona clocking 38.34 mph (average 37.10 mph) so one to to watch NWT came third for e/w money and NDO 14 lengths behind in 5th having dwelt and slightly impeded so not a forlorn hope for the future…but the winner looked very classy in the win.

  9. Old school summer racing should be flat only, todays crap of 21 races NH their are only 2 races with more than 10 runners, enjoy competitive NH racing, today again very poor, unless we get a winner!!!
    Cannot see that the attendances will be great when should be booming on Bank Holiday Sunday with people having Monday off.
    Colin

    1. Totally agree…more horses in races for a start and clear distinction… but would trainers survive??? The other alternative is not to race on Sunday, but would trainers survive?…… and limit the number of races on Saturdays but the BHA does not have any control of the race courses choosing the days they open so cannot see anything changing and just have to adjust to looking abroad for better quality races with decent entries…problem there is lack of viable quality information to make informed choices..so limited choices available on Sundays and far too much on Saturdays to deal with so selective choices only on both days in the UK.

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