Members Daily Post: 25/05/19 (complete)

Flat test x2, Daily Tips x1, Nick’s Tips x3, Section 1 (complete) test zone, updates

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Cartmel

3.15 – Pretty Miss Mahler   (micro runs) H3 I3 11/2 

4.25 – Bocasien Desbois   (m runs) H3  13/2 

5.00 – Rolling Maul   (all Hc’s.HcH)  w2  ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A

5.35 –

Good Tradition   (m dist) 14/1 S2

Morraman   (m dist)  w1 H1 I3 11/4 

 

Ffos Las

6.05 –

Trumps Benefit   (HcH,m Hc deb) I3 5/1 

Trysor Ynys   (HcH,m age and Hc deb)  ES+ H3 4/1 S3A

Manhattan Mead   (m dist)  w2 20/1 S2A

7.35 – Caveat Emptor   (nov HcCh)  w1 8/1 

8.05 – Gwalia   (HcH,m age)  ES+  I3 7/1 S3A 

8.35 –

Curious Carlos   (m age) H3 9/2 

Trafalgar Rock   (m TJC)  ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A 

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FLAT

Chester

2.55 – Baraweez   (4yo+) I1 5/1 

4.40 – Mikmak   (m class) I3 14/1 

5.15 –

Dance King   (3yo+,m class) H3 12/1 

Never Do Nothing   (3yo+) G1 4/1 

 

Goodwood

4.20 – Blue Laureate   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 G1 9/2 S3A# 

 

Haydock

5.45 – Finniston Farm   (all Hc’s,m dist) H3 I3 G3 11/8 S4

 

York

2.00 – Dancing Star   (all Hc’s) H3 9/2 

2.35 – Perfect Illusion   (all Hc’s) 16/1 

 

Salisbury

None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 11/64, 21p +18.1)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)

 

Daily Tips

3.15 Cartmel – Sackett – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/Lad/WH/Coral) 15/2 (others) WON 8/1>3/1 (20p r4) 6.4/1 

that’s all for daily tips, which just focus on staying handicap chases, C4+, as of 08.53, write up…

Sackett – he’s the most interesting horse in this by far given his unexposed profile over fences- there should be more to come one day. He’s a former point winner, his chase 2nds in Feb/March at Hunt/Fake are very solid form, esp ‘on the figures’ – those RPRs are the best in here of any of these on last 6 runs, bar Hammond’s LTO but more on him in a moment. In both of those chases the front two were miles clear and he was beaten by the right horses on the day. He didn’t have the pace of Air Du Roc at Hunt and was just out-stayed by Fifty Shades at Fake (albeit a last fence blunder didn’t help), who two starts later would bolt up at Warwick in a marathon chase (albeit a poor one). Still, in this line up, that form is as good as anything else on offer, and the RPRs support that view. He was still galloping at Fake, rather than going backwards. He does have a stamina question but has stayed 3m well enough over hurdles and it could be a reason for improvement as he could just keep galloping on the long run in here. If you handle Fakenham (LH,tight, 7f circuit), you handle Cartmel, so no excuses on that front. 

Obviously the elephant in the room is the PU LTO. A PU LTO for a chaser is never a positive in my book and you have to make a case, odds allowing, for what happened. I’ve watched it back and he just never looked happy. I’m putting it in the ‘off day’ camp and the fact he returns just 21 days later would indicate it wasn’t injury related. He was just never travelling. That could have been due to the fact he was running 10 days after a hard enough hurdle race at Southwell- where he was under the pump on the turn for home and kept galloping before tiring. He does look a chaser and may have always been going a stride too fast around there. There’s also a chance that he doesn’t like to have a wall of horses in front of him. They held him up there and he may have simply been unhappy. He may want space, light and to feel like he’s getting competitive. I fully expect Bryony Frost to attempt to make all here and play catch me if you can. It could well be that he’s just gone out of form, out of sorts, and he’ll be struggling early again. But, given all of the above, the potential change in tactics back to what he knows best, and the yard form, I was happy to roll the dice at 8s. Of course in part that’s due to my assessment of the opposition…

Just For James… well he’s 10 but clearly a danger if repeating his win LTO, or building on it. It’s the ‘Fifty Shades’ form… however, in the context of his price, I do not like the 88 days off at all. I can only assume that he’s had a problem/setback/minor injury, and as such, at his age, i’d want to see him run again before supporting him in similar contests. He may be a1 here, and obviously would go close if he is. His RPR last time was 125, matching Sackett’s at Fakenham. Nothing in here has posted a figure that high on recent runs. He was 11/4 last night, and has now drifted out to 5s. Hopefully that tells it’s own story, given his profile, but we shall see. Clearly not a shock winner but I want to take him on.

If one of the two 12 year olds beats me, so be it. I’ll take them on every day of the week. Morning Royalty would have a chance on old form and is chucked in on that. But his mark has fallen because he’s done nothing of note for over a year now, since April 18. He’s also 0/8,0p with breaks of 60+ days, and these older horses can take plenty to get them fit at home. The trainer can ready them though and he is being supported but I didn’t think he was overpriced. If back to anything like his best I could see him bolting up, but far too many questions for me. He does have to prove his stamina over fences also. Dartford Warbler appears to have lost his form and I can leave him here.

I can leave Pretty Miss Mahler at her price. The race she did win at Ayr was atrocious and her recent runs are only ‘ok’. All conditions are fine though but is another where I wasn’t tempted to wade in at the odds. She could go close but obviously has a bit to find if some of these run up to their marks etc and she’s not unexposed.

That leaves Incholm who is the one to beat – simply because he’s in superb form, generally jumps well, stays, has some course form, and will run his race- it’s not impossible he’s the only one to do so. However he is now 6lb higher than his 2nd LTO and on a career high mark by some way. It could be he’s somehow still progressing on the 28th chase start of his life, but at 2/1 I’m happy to take him on. He is the one to beat, but his recent chase form isn’t anything to shout about.

At the prices, I really do think this is about whether the selection can repeat/build on his Huntingdon and Fakenham chase runs. If he does I think his price is rather generous and allows a play despite the obvious questions. We shall see!

 

Flat Test 

(2019: 4/18,8p, +6.25)

2.50 Haydock

Aweedram – 1 point EW – 8/1 (UniB) 15/2 (bet365/BV/Coral)

Reggae Runner – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen)

With four places available i’ve gone EW on these two test pokes, simply using my ‘trainer pointers’ for the race below in Section 4 as my ‘way in’.

Aweedram – I remember watching his win LTO and I don’t know how he did it – the unexposed/in form Balding horse made all there and dictated. This one was pulling Buick’s arms out for the whole trip and still won going away at the end. I think he could be smart and is still well handicapped. I also think he’ll enjoy being buried in this big field and if he could switch off, he could be even better. The draw isn’t ideal but he’s a hold up horse anyway and he’ll be dropped it. I found it interesting that they’ve booked Richard Kingscote for his first ride for the yard I think, at a track he rides so well and when Dascombe has two runners in the race. I think it’s a sign of intent and i’d be surprised if he wasn’t in the mix here. He is up in class but his RPR LTO was 95, he’s off a mark of 92, and that figure is similar to the two above him in the market.

Reggae Runner – I thought i’d best have a Johnston runner onside in this and given his last two winners were not ridden by Fanning or Franny, I didn’t read the jockey booking negatively. And claimers have won this race a few times in the last 22 renewals. This one will race prominent, may try and lead and could stay there. He went far too fast at Sandown and that effort took it’s toll late on. It’s only the 6th run of his life and his form reads well enough. Provided he doesn’t do too much on the front end I thought he’d be in the mix and hopefully finishes top 4 at worst, paying for the race.

Remember this is a test, i’ve used the trainer pointers and flicked through the opposition. I spent 60 mins or so on the 3 mile ‘daily tip’, 20 mins or so on this! Such shortcuts may well not be rewarded in time, but it is a test. 🙂 

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

2.30 Good – Chapelli – 1 point EW – 11/1 (gen) (1/5,4p gen)

3.30 Chest – Gossip Column – 1 point EW – 9/1 (gen) NR

3.45 York – Marnie James- 1 point EW – 16/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 14/1 (others) (various place terms on offer… 6p SB/PP, 5p others)

that’s all for today, as of 08.30 

Notes, from Nick...

Chapelli-need to be drawn 1-5 over 7f at Goodwood; solid form; last time ground unsuitable; step up should bring about improvement; trainer won 2 of the last 4 runnings and can be followed blind over course and distance; should make all.

Gossip Column-drawn well; should be able to get out in front from draw; good track record; ground an excuse last time out ; step back in trip should suit.

Marnie James-last race looks to be the best piece of form and conditions similar; gets a 4lb swing with the winner and looks the wrong price of the three that finished 1/3/4 LTO; jockey booking eye-catching.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.25 Cart – The Kings Baby

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

2.40 Cart – Duhallow Gesture

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Trends

Well there isn’t much on the flat this weekend, not from a stats/trends perspective with many of the C2s/big handicaps not that long established, + a few 3YO only which I don’t really like attacking. 

Of some minor use…

Haydock Silver Bowl

Trainers: (10 years)

  • M Johnston (2/16,5p)
  • R Fahey (2/16, 4p)
  • X1: A King / H Morrison / C Cox

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Results/Strategies Chat 

I’ll update the main strategies at the start of June, however in the meantime i’ve been looking back at various bits and pieces.

Firstly… the ‘on the scrapheap / to be monitored’ pile…

READ HERE>>>

This just pulls together those strategies, some of which were never advised as such, that don’t look worth bothering with ‘systematically’.

It includes Flat S1 and S4 – in June I do want to look back at these and see how those under 3/1 perform, as there’s a chance they run at a loss, and that may open up options.

This document compliments the two main ones which can be found in The Key (link in section 1 above)

  • The Strategies: ‘Where To Begin’ – Jumps S1, S3A# and Flat S6 : READ HERE>>>
  • The Strategies: ‘Other Ideas’ : Jumps W2 / S3A / S2A , Flat S3A# : READ HERE>>>

 

The ‘where to begin’ strategies haven’t done much as yet in 2019, but plenty of time 🙂 Jumps S1 is on holiday as Geegeez Speed ratings don’t cover summer jumps sadly. I do intend to play around with the Inform ratings system builder to see if I should be looking at some of their other ratings to compliment the section 1 qualifiers.

Those other strategies which are showing hope ‘systematically’ are Jumps W2 and S3A. (ES+) . The latter pulled in the same profit as S3A# last year (S3A# is the same as S3A, but when there are also 2 or more ‘ratings pointers’ – the red symbols) but from many more bets. But, Jumps S3A is ticking along well this year I think, and gives you more action if you wish. All of that should hopefully make sense when flicking through the above.

Starting Points… obviously part of the aim for the various stats content is to provide a ‘way in’, for those of you who enjoy using starting points to augment your own race/horse analysis.

In terms of ‘short cuts’ for this process, you could use some of the strategy qualifiers for that purpose… given the number or winners, win%, the likes of Flat S1 , S4 and S3A# in particular could be useful to help draw up your daily ‘shortlist’, before you then get to work. Jumps w2 and S3A would work on that front also, as well as those other strategies mentioned in the ‘where to begin’ doc. At some point I intend to create some ‘play book’ documents which provide some racing analysis ideas to help with that – albeit if you absorb any of mine or Nick’s write ups etc, how we think about racing may give you some ideas- as of course all of the excellent comments and many different approaches found there.

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ODDS… I have been through various jumps strategies looking at those with morning odds (what I add next to section 1 horses around 8am) under 3/1, and 3/1 or bigger. I’ve been through all posts in 2018 etc on the hunt for some strategy gold… alas I didn’t find any!!

However… of interest…

Jumps S3A# … those with morning odds under 3/1 were 19/36, +23 points over the year… so, if you follow S3A#, I think it’s best to just follow it- don’t faff around with any self imposed price limits. Albeit that’s your choice, but in 2018 ‘shorties’ did just fine, as you can see.

‘Double Top Rated’ – I was hoping there may be a strategy lurking here for the jumps picks, (eg a section 1 qualifiers with a H1 I1, or I1 G1 etc)  but alas there isn’t. Those bigger than 3s on morning odds didn’t do that well… 7/58, 22p, -21.

Those sent off under 3/1 could well be another ‘way in’, given they were 24/57, 27p, +5. Plenty of very short ones those and not a good systematic approach, but useful to know they operate at around a 42% win SR

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The Test Zone

The various angles in here were/are only to be seen as starting points, and are in the ‘test zone’ for a reason. I’ll do a 6 month results review in early July of some of these, but for one reason or another, having flicked through…

I have dropped/will no longer be posting qualifiers for…

D McCain x2 (3 angles made up his qualifiers, one of them – top weights- is still worth posting), Paddy Brennan, R Hobson, A Honeyball and ‘The Irish Angles’

I’ll continue to post all the others, and will keep the Jumps 2018/19 Fact Sheet going for this year – many of those are still useful ‘ways in’, if not great systematically as such.

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Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. Don’t know if this has been mentioned but have Billy Hills now introduced a lay to lose grantee on ALL UK and Irish racing? I was previously restricted to MAX £20 win, and haven’t used the account for months but logged in today and found I still had £37 in the account so just thought i would try placing £20 on a 14/1 shot for tomorrow and I was shocked that the bet was taken! I have since placed a number of other bets at various meeting and they have all been taken, apart from one EW bet they would only let me have £1 EW so it must be win only. I know they had some sort of Lay to lose Guarantee on all ITV races, but this seems to have now stretched to ALL UK and Irish Racing and available on the evening before racing too.

    Cheers,
    Brad

  2. no selections again as i just don’t have the time for any decent look so just a skim through the ITV races as i’m off to my Dad’s to watch hopefully.
    Haydock.
    2-15 Watersmeet 16-1
    2-50. Masaru 8-1, Certain Lad 33-1
    3–25. no bet
    4-00. Kachy
    Goodwood.
    1-55. Fabricate 8-1
    2-30. Chynna 20-1
    York.
    3-05. Altra Vita 16-1
    3-45. Harome 20-1
    Curragh.
    3-35. Skarov 7-1, Decrypt 16-1

  3. Hi josh I notice you mention the inform system builder . I have found this a great bit of kit for a way in . I treat each track differently and as basic rules set as I can . I find some tracks don’t like the speed ratings .One for Chester today : year greater than 2017 crs = 1 dis =1 strike rate 31% plc 57%. There is 3 qualifiers today 2.55 baraweez . 4.40 mearing. 5.15 desert ruler. Good luck if you play any of these today

    1. Hi Jamie, yep I haven’t looked into it much as yet, but plan to. I want to interrogate some ideas with the speed ratings to test them etc, as I use M+A for the ratings pointers above – I want to go to town on 3m+ handicap chases obviously and see if there’s a rating’s ‘way in’ or something I should be focusing on more- but I do use them as part of any tipping analysis, along with HRB and GG. Ian is building a comprehensive site there, esp for the cost etc. I don’t use the ‘cards’ element and all the other bits and pieces, but the ratings are very useful guide.

      1. It will be very interesting when you get time to delve Josh, I have used the cards and system builder for a while now, time is my enemy but just this week skimming through both I have had good returns on a couple of my Lucky 15 bets, yesterday bet was
        2:55 Goodwood – Win
        Clara Peeters @ Guaranteed Price (13.00) 3@1/5 Placed
        4:40 Goodwood – Win
        Age Of Wisdom @ Guaranteed Price (17.00) 4@1/5 Won
        3:20 Haydock – Win
        Fares Kodiac @ Guaranteed Price (7.00) 3@1/5 Lost
        6:30 Pontefract – Win
        Miss Sheridan @ Guaranteed Price (11.00) 3@1/5 Won.
        and Wednesday bet was.
        2:55 Warwick – Win
        Billy My Boy @ Guaranteed Price (11.00) 3@1/5 Placed
        3:15 Yarmouth – Win
        The Resdev Way @ Guaranteed Price (5.00) 3@1/5 Won
        5:05 Ayr – Win
        Jackhammer @ Guaranteed Price (9.00) 4@1/5 Won
        5:40 Ayr – Win
        Footstepsintime N/R @ Guaranteed Price (6.00) 4@1/5 Void.
        So with your Knowledge and time we could all be making bigger profits Josh.

  4. up early enough to delve a bit deeper and i am having 3 proper bets so today’s selections are:
    Chester 2.55 – Baraweez 8-1
    Goodwood.1-55. Fabricate 8-1
    Haydock 2-50. Masaru 15-2
    all 1/2 pt ew

  5. 4.55 Goodwood – Englishman 9/1
    Won the race last year off 79, returns this year off 72.
    Obviously the sands of time may have taken their toll on this one but at the price it’s worth a stab.

    1. 3.45 York – Lord Riddiford 16/1
      No doubt the pace will be low with El Astronaute drawn 8.
      This horse had a pipe opener at Chester over 5f but drawn 9/9 didn’t get near the lead.
      Last season’s form ties in with that of Marnie James and Copper Knight and this horse comes out better at the weights. It’s only had 10 runs so unexposed and capable of improvement I think.

  6. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    Ca 3.15 – Morning Royalty on 6th run @ 6
    Ch 3.30 – Machine Learner on 3rd run @ 16
    Y 3.45 – Dark Shot on 3rd and 6th run @ 16
    Y 5.25 – Be Kool on 3rd run @ 16
    S 7.20 – Sunblazer on 4th run @ 8
    festival
    Ch 2.55 – Aces on 3rd run @ 8
    Y 2.50 – Via Serendipity on 2nd run @ 8
    Y 6.45 – Dark Shot on 8th run @ 16
    Y 5.20 – Be Kool on 1st run @ 16
    GL

  7. Someone mentioned recently, I have not made the effort to look back over posts as to who it was, how horses that dwelt at the start (flat races) fared next time out if they then got out on terms. I am working on some test algorithms for selecting horses in races. It does seem possible to be able to pick out the words ‘Dwelt’ or ‘Dwelt at start’ form data sources. Things are still in the test stages but it does not look to be a source of winners next time out. I will come back to this in the future.

    1. Just a thought Martin but maybe there’s a difference between horses that often dwell because they can’t or won’t start properly, and horses that dwell just once because for some reason, ahem, the jockey wasn’t ready shall we say.

      1. Yes. likely the case. All we can do is pick out narrative in the databases used. Looking at it the most you get is the wording I mentioned above. Josh said that you would likely need to watch the replays of the races to add the required level of detail and he is likely correct.

      2. Or dwelt as in Jamie Spencer wants to be last and then hope to come with a long withering run to lead on the line

        1. I do not mind Jamie Spencer over a straight mile, 8/1 or better. Over a tight or bendy course I would give him a miss.

          1. Agree over that straight course at Ascot probably no one better but probably need some stats to back that up

          2. oh i’ve published those before, just back him blind EW in Ascot 8f handicaps, not sure on non hncps but same principle.
            His MO is all about getting a horse to conserve energy and to ensure they are doing all their best work at the end of his race – he’s rather ideological in his take on getting the best from a flat horse – and with youngster’s his main aim is to teach them how to race so that they become race horses, and can do damage later in careers etc/do everything the right way.
            So, yep, bigger the field/stronger the pace is better for him, and no surprise straight/long straights are where he’s very good, and indeed on those horses which have to be ridden patiently for one reason or another. But he’s bloody good on the front when he wants to be, has one of the best clocks in his head imo.

  8. COLINS BETS
    3.45 York Duke Of Firenze BOG 10/1
    5.15 Chester Charlie D BOG 6/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.35 York Perfect Illusion BOG 16/1
    4.40 Chester Chai Chai BOG 7/1
    5.25 York Muraahin BOG 10/1
    NEW METHOD
    2.50 Haydock Awe BOG 4/1
    6.05 Ffos Las Trysor Ynys BOG 9/2
    Colin

    1. Lovely winner Colin. Had to stop following when I gave up on bookmaker accounts but still check occasionally to see how you got on. Hope you had the bfsp!

  9. Jamie Osbourne
    4.15 York Jump The Gun 12/1
    Charles Hills
    Yesterday Wufud lost by a nose at 13/2
    3.35 Curragh Phoenix Of Spain 20/1
    3.45 York Amomentofmadness 22/1
    5.30 Goodwood Rhossili Down 11/4
    On early today so put my view on them for there are some juicy prices, Richard Hughes to difficult today.
    Colin

  10. Well, Spanish Angel yesterday caught the proverbial tartar yesterday in Dream Shot. I would be reluctant to back a Tate horse fto without seeing it and view JPS on a debutant as a disadvantage, so to win the way it did suggests it is at least listed class.

    Today all the 2yo races look tricky so nothing for me there. I did however in going to place my bet on Nick’s Chapelli for the 2.30 at Goodwood spy Alhakmah.

    Here are my comments from her debut last year at Goodwood
    Alhakmah – Upper medium strong filly, looked fully fit, inexperience put paid to her winning chance. 87

    She goes today off 85 and as my ratings tend to be on the low side I would think she is possibly quite well in here.

    Drawn 7 so not impossible I shall be dutching her and Chapelli.

    Hugh

    1. Here are the comments I made on others I had seen. Fanaar may also be well in but I’ve lost enough on him already.
      Chapelli – Typically for a Mark Johnston horse, a bigger model but tall and not that heavily made. Stuck on well from worst draw. Got her black type. 81
      Sporting Chance – Stodgily made individual. Missed break and trundled through. 84
      Dunkerron – Solid individual 88
      and my cliff horse of last season who is now rated 98
      Fanaar – Second impressions did not disappoint. Rangy, powerful, still perhaps with a bit left to work on and will improve further. Possibly still a bit downhill but the first of the unsaddled photos really shows his power. 102 so listed/Gp3 potential at least.
      Dubai Legacy – Very sweaty in paddock. Ran a good race considering that and maybe worth a bit more than finishing position suggests. 84
      Jack’s Point – Less physically appealing than the first two but strongly made and appears to be able to use himself. Unlucky here. 80
      2. Indian Viceroy – Long, ok chest 82

  11. Just the one today: 3.35 Curragh…Trying to see if anything can beat Magna Grecia and Too Darn Hot…..Magna Grecia has clocked 37.76 mph and in a course and distance adjusted figure Too Darn Hot is likely to clock 37.55 mph over 8f…the latter is a projected figure having clocked 37.87 mph over 7f…..Phoenix of Spain was a head behind Magna Crecia at Doncaster when the latter won in the above time and since then Magna has improved by 0.03 mph ….Skardo was 4.5 lengths behind Magna on the other side of the track (may have made a difference ) and clocked a speed of 37.50 mph…just slightly lower than Too Darn Hot’s projected speed over 8f. Shelir’s projected speed over 8f is expected to be 37.02 mph. and the only other runner that was approaching the 37.00 mph barrier over 8f was I Am Superman running in a going and course adjusted speed of 36.88 mph….Pedigree wise Magna is the best bred, especially on the Dam’s side closely followed by Phoenix of Spain and Skardo, Too Darn Hot, I Am Superman and Shelir. Prediction is a tricky affair but will really stick my neck out saying Magna will win. Phoenix will be second, Too Darn Hot and Skardo will be vying for 3rd and 4th and should they go too hard at the outset can see I am Superman staying on when the rest drop away…so you can laugh later when the dust settles and non of this happens as predicted….gd luck whatever else you are backing today.

    1. So much for predictions with the Magna very disappointing and Decrypt popping up between Skardu and Too Darn Hot but pleased Phoenix of Spain won so got some of the right notes but not necessarily all of them in the right order as one comedian famously said back in the day…hope someone else backed Phoenix other than me. Cheers.

  12. Running late today due to a delay in our plane arriving 3 hours late on it’s previous flight. Only got back here an hour ago so will miss the afternoon races for sure. Not a bad thing given my current lack of form. Might put up an evening post if I see anything interesting.

    1. ha, I think so! 🙂 cheers gents. Superb ride by BF and did as I hoped… boy she got him jumping, pinged every one near enough and that’s what won it, he only just saw that out, certainly doesn’t want any further and I suspect if can’t make all it’s prob a tad far.

    1. cheers Mark, every now and then I clearly need a gentle reminder to start with the biggies/outsiders and work my way up!! Ahem 🙂 Not sure I was ever fully out of groove, but was filling my head/my mental analysis energy was spread too thin etc, so everything was rubbish. Why I ever left dedicating myself to those (outside of the big jumps festivals) then who knows! But I know what I can do, recent weeks have shown that, just have to keep going etc, and my analysis has stepped up in recent weeks – more video watching, use of RPRs etc. Onwards.

      1. What you said at the end of your post ‘re your analysis is definitely true, I can see it in your write ups, well done, sorry for gently reminding you 🙂

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