1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)
4.Micro System Test Zone
5.Any general messages/updates etc
1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
3.15 – Pretty Miss Mahler (micro runs) H3 I3 11/2
4.25 – Bocasien Desbois (m runs) H3 13/2
5.00 – Rolling Maul (all Hc’s.HcH) w2 ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A
Good Tradition (m dist) 14/1 S2
Morraman (m dist) w1 H1 I3 11/4
Trumps Benefit (HcH,m Hc deb) I3 5/1
Trysor Ynys (HcH,m age and Hc deb) ES+ H3 4/1 S3A
Manhattan Mead (m dist) w2 20/1 S2A
7.35 – Caveat Emptor (nov HcCh) w1 8/1
8.05 – Gwalia (HcH,m age) ES+ I3 7/1 S3A
Curious Carlos (m age) H3 9/2
Trafalgar Rock (m TJC) ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A
2.55 – Baraweez (4yo+) I1 5/1
4.40 – Mikmak (m class) I3 14/1
Dance King (3yo+,m class) H3 12/1
Never Do Nothing (3yo+) G1 4/1
4.20 – Blue Laureate (all Hc’s) ES+ H3 G1 9/2 S3A#
5.45 – Finniston Farm (all Hc’s,m dist) H3 I3 G3 11/8 S4
2.00 – Dancing Star (all Hc’s) H3 9/2
2.35 – Perfect Illusion (all Hc’s) 16/1
Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles, tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>
2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)
Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 11/64, 21p +18.1) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)
3.15 Cartmel – Sackett – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/Lad/WH/Coral) 15/2 (others) WON 8/1>3/1 (20p r4) 6.4/1
that’s all for daily tips, which just focus on staying handicap chases, C4+, as of 08.53, write up…
Sackett – he’s the most interesting horse in this by far given his unexposed profile over fences- there should be more to come one day. He’s a former point winner, his chase 2nds in Feb/March at Hunt/Fake are very solid form, esp ‘on the figures’ – those RPRs are the best in here of any of these on last 6 runs, bar Hammond’s LTO but more on him in a moment. In both of those chases the front two were miles clear and he was beaten by the right horses on the day. He didn’t have the pace of Air Du Roc at Hunt and was just out-stayed by Fifty Shades at Fake (albeit a last fence blunder didn’t help), who two starts later would bolt up at Warwick in a marathon chase (albeit a poor one). Still, in this line up, that form is as good as anything else on offer, and the RPRs support that view. He was still galloping at Fake, rather than going backwards. He does have a stamina question but has stayed 3m well enough over hurdles and it could be a reason for improvement as he could just keep galloping on the long run in here. If you handle Fakenham (LH,tight, 7f circuit), you handle Cartmel, so no excuses on that front.
Obviously the elephant in the room is the PU LTO. A PU LTO for a chaser is never a positive in my book and you have to make a case, odds allowing, for what happened. I’ve watched it back and he just never looked happy. I’m putting it in the ‘off day’ camp and the fact he returns just 21 days later would indicate it wasn’t injury related. He was just never travelling. That could have been due to the fact he was running 10 days after a hard enough hurdle race at Southwell- where he was under the pump on the turn for home and kept galloping before tiring. He does look a chaser and may have always been going a stride too fast around there. There’s also a chance that he doesn’t like to have a wall of horses in front of him. They held him up there and he may have simply been unhappy. He may want space, light and to feel like he’s getting competitive. I fully expect Bryony Frost to attempt to make all here and play catch me if you can. It could well be that he’s just gone out of form, out of sorts, and he’ll be struggling early again. But, given all of the above, the potential change in tactics back to what he knows best, and the yard form, I was happy to roll the dice at 8s. Of course in part that’s due to my assessment of the opposition…
Just For James… well he’s 10 but clearly a danger if repeating his win LTO, or building on it. It’s the ‘Fifty Shades’ form… however, in the context of his price, I do not like the 88 days off at all. I can only assume that he’s had a problem/setback/minor injury, and as such, at his age, i’d want to see him run again before supporting him in similar contests. He may be a1 here, and obviously would go close if he is. His RPR last time was 125, matching Sackett’s at Fakenham. Nothing in here has posted a figure that high on recent runs. He was 11/4 last night, and has now drifted out to 5s. Hopefully that tells it’s own story, given his profile, but we shall see. Clearly not a shock winner but I want to take him on.
If one of the two 12 year olds beats me, so be it. I’ll take them on every day of the week. Morning Royalty would have a chance on old form and is chucked in on that. But his mark has fallen because he’s done nothing of note for over a year now, since April 18. He’s also 0/8,0p with breaks of 60+ days, and these older horses can take plenty to get them fit at home. The trainer can ready them though and he is being supported but I didn’t think he was overpriced. If back to anything like his best I could see him bolting up, but far too many questions for me. He does have to prove his stamina over fences also. Dartford Warbler appears to have lost his form and I can leave him here.
I can leave Pretty Miss Mahler at her price. The race she did win at Ayr was atrocious and her recent runs are only ‘ok’. All conditions are fine though but is another where I wasn’t tempted to wade in at the odds. She could go close but obviously has a bit to find if some of these run up to their marks etc and she’s not unexposed.
That leaves Incholm who is the one to beat – simply because he’s in superb form, generally jumps well, stays, has some course form, and will run his race- it’s not impossible he’s the only one to do so. However he is now 6lb higher than his 2nd LTO and on a career high mark by some way. It could be he’s somehow still progressing on the 28th chase start of his life, but at 2/1 I’m happy to take him on. He is the one to beat, but his recent chase form isn’t anything to shout about.
At the prices, I really do think this is about whether the selection can repeat/build on his Huntingdon and Fakenham chase runs. If he does I think his price is rather generous and allows a play despite the obvious questions. We shall see!
(2019: 4/18,8p, +6.25)
Aweedram – 1 point EW – 8/1 (UniB) 15/2 (bet365/BV/Coral)
Reggae Runner – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen)
With four places available i’ve gone EW on these two test pokes, simply using my ‘trainer pointers’ for the race below in Section 4 as my ‘way in’.
Aweedram – I remember watching his win LTO and I don’t know how he did it – the unexposed/in form Balding horse made all there and dictated. This one was pulling Buick’s arms out for the whole trip and still won going away at the end. I think he could be smart and is still well handicapped. I also think he’ll enjoy being buried in this big field and if he could switch off, he could be even better. The draw isn’t ideal but he’s a hold up horse anyway and he’ll be dropped it. I found it interesting that they’ve booked Richard Kingscote for his first ride for the yard I think, at a track he rides so well and when Dascombe has two runners in the race. I think it’s a sign of intent and i’d be surprised if he wasn’t in the mix here. He is up in class but his RPR LTO was 95, he’s off a mark of 92, and that figure is similar to the two above him in the market.
Reggae Runner – I thought i’d best have a Johnston runner onside in this and given his last two winners were not ridden by Fanning or Franny, I didn’t read the jockey booking negatively. And claimers have won this race a few times in the last 22 renewals. This one will race prominent, may try and lead and could stay there. He went far too fast at Sandown and that effort took it’s toll late on. It’s only the 6th run of his life and his form reads well enough. Provided he doesn’t do too much on the front end I thought he’d be in the mix and hopefully finishes top 4 at worst, paying for the race.
Remember this is a test, i’ve used the trainer pointers and flicked through the opposition. I spent 60 mins or so on the 3 mile ‘daily tip’, 20 mins or so on this! Such shortcuts may well not be rewarded in time, but it is a test. 🙂
(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16)
2.30 Good – Chapelli – 1 point EW – 11/1 (gen) (1/5,4p gen)
3.30 Chest – Gossip Column – 1 point EW – 9/1 (gen) NR
3.45 York – Marnie James- 1 point EW – 16/1 (bet365/betfS/PP) 14/1 (others) (various place terms on offer… 6p SB/PP, 5p others)
that’s all for today, as of 08.30
Notes, from Nick...
Chapelli-need to be drawn 1-5 over 7f at Goodwood; solid form; last time ground unsuitable; step up should bring about improvement; trainer won 2 of the last 4 runnings and can be followed blind over course and distance; should make all.
Gossip Column-drawn well; should be able to get out in front from draw; good track record; ground an excuse last time out ; step back in trip should suit.
Marnie James-last race looks to be the best piece of form and conditions similar; gets a 4lb swing with the winner and looks the wrong price of the three that finished 1/3/4 LTO; jockey booking eye-catching.
4.Micro System Test Zone
Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)
4.25 Cart – The Kings Baby
Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)
2.40 Cart – Duhallow Gesture
5.Any general messages/updates etc
Saturday Big Race Trends
Well there isn’t much on the flat this weekend, not from a stats/trends perspective with many of the C2s/big handicaps not that long established, + a few 3YO only which I don’t really like attacking.
Of some minor use…
Haydock Silver Bowl
Trainers: (10 years)
- M Johnston (2/16,5p)
- R Fahey (2/16, 4p)
- X1: A King / H Morrison / C Cox
I’ll update the main strategies at the start of June, however in the meantime i’ve been looking back at various bits and pieces.
Firstly… the ‘on the scrapheap / to be monitored’ pile…
This just pulls together those strategies, some of which were never advised as such, that don’t look worth bothering with ‘systematically’.
It includes Flat S1 and S4 – in June I do want to look back at these and see how those under 3/1 perform, as there’s a chance they run at a loss, and that may open up options.
This document compliments the two main ones which can be found in The Key (link in section 1 above)
- The Strategies: ‘Where To Begin’ – Jumps S1, S3A# and Flat S6 : READ HERE>>>
- The Strategies: ‘Other Ideas’ : Jumps W2 / S3A / S2A , Flat S3A# : READ HERE>>>
The ‘where to begin’ strategies haven’t done much as yet in 2019, but plenty of time 🙂 Jumps S1 is on holiday as Geegeez Speed ratings don’t cover summer jumps sadly. I do intend to play around with the Inform ratings system builder to see if I should be looking at some of their other ratings to compliment the section 1 qualifiers.
Those other strategies which are showing hope ‘systematically’ are Jumps W2 and S3A. (ES+) . The latter pulled in the same profit as S3A# last year (S3A# is the same as S3A, but when there are also 2 or more ‘ratings pointers’ – the red symbols) but from many more bets. But, Jumps S3A is ticking along well this year I think, and gives you more action if you wish. All of that should hopefully make sense when flicking through the above.
Starting Points… obviously part of the aim for the various stats content is to provide a ‘way in’, for those of you who enjoy using starting points to augment your own race/horse analysis.
In terms of ‘short cuts’ for this process, you could use some of the strategy qualifiers for that purpose… given the number or winners, win%, the likes of Flat S1 , S4 and S3A# in particular could be useful to help draw up your daily ‘shortlist’, before you then get to work. Jumps w2 and S3A would work on that front also, as well as those other strategies mentioned in the ‘where to begin’ doc. At some point I intend to create some ‘play book’ documents which provide some racing analysis ideas to help with that – albeit if you absorb any of mine or Nick’s write ups etc, how we think about racing may give you some ideas- as of course all of the excellent comments and many different approaches found there.
ODDS… I have been through various jumps strategies looking at those with morning odds (what I add next to section 1 horses around 8am) under 3/1, and 3/1 or bigger. I’ve been through all posts in 2018 etc on the hunt for some strategy gold… alas I didn’t find any!!
However… of interest…
Jumps S3A# … those with morning odds under 3/1 were 19/36, +23 points over the year… so, if you follow S3A#, I think it’s best to just follow it- don’t faff around with any self imposed price limits. Albeit that’s your choice, but in 2018 ‘shorties’ did just fine, as you can see.
‘Double Top Rated’ – I was hoping there may be a strategy lurking here for the jumps picks, (eg a section 1 qualifiers with a H1 I1, or I1 G1 etc) but alas there isn’t. Those bigger than 3s on morning odds didn’t do that well… 7/58, 22p, -21.
Those sent off under 3/1 could well be another ‘way in’, given they were 24/57, 27p, +5. Plenty of very short ones those and not a good systematic approach, but useful to know they operate at around a 42% win SR
The Test Zone
The various angles in here were/are only to be seen as starting points, and are in the ‘test zone’ for a reason. I’ll do a 6 month results review in early July of some of these, but for one reason or another, having flicked through…
I have dropped/will no longer be posting qualifiers for…
D McCain x2 (3 angles made up his qualifiers, one of them – top weights- is still worth posting), Paddy Brennan, R Hobson, A Honeyball and ‘The Irish Angles’
I’ll continue to post all the others, and will keep the Jumps 2018/19 Fact Sheet going for this year – many of those are still useful ‘ways in’, if not great systematically as such.