Members Daily Post: 24/05/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Worcester

8.10 –

Balkinstown   (HcH)  w2 H3 I1 8/1 

Sandy Boy   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 5/2 S3A#

Comeonthebull   (HcH) 12/1 S2

8.40 – Get An Oscar   (micro class) I3 7/1 

 

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FLAT

Bath

2.00 –

Red Alert   (4yo+,m going) G3 2/1  WON 2/1 

Coronation Cottage   (m dist)  w2  ES+ 13/2 S3A 3rd 8/1

4.15 –

Spot Lite   (m age) 

Amberine   (m dist)  ES+ H3 I1 G1 4/1 S1 S3A# S4  UP

Paco Dawn   (4yo+,m going)

5.20 –

Aqua Libre   (4yo+,m going) 15/2 

Screaming Gemini   (4yo+,m going) 15/2 

 

Haydock

2.10 – Tomorrows Angel   (m age) I1 6/1 S6  UP

 

Pontefract   

6.30 – Miss Sheridan   (m age) 12/1 

8.30 – Moretti   (3yo+,m class) G3 16/1 

 

Goodwood
None

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 11/64, 21p +18.1)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)

 

Daily Tips

None, no 3m+ handicap chases… there are a handful for me to get stuck into over the weekend. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

7pm Ponte – Sempre Presto – 1 point EW – 15/2 (bet365/BV) 7/1 (gen) (1/5,4p WH)

that’s all for today, 08.02 

This one looks solid, given that she’s yet to finish out of the places at the track in four visits and ran a cracker here two starts back on her return – over CD, on good to firm. She seemingly bumped into one there. Archive was her conqueror that day and he’d go on to win his next two, rattling up a hat-trick. So, she was beaten by the right horse. There was a gap back to the rest. On RPR that was also a career best and indicates she could show a mark of 70 to be within reach – there’s certainly no complaints given the 5lb claim from a decent young jockey. Pace was the other positive in that she could try and make all, and i’m not sure anything will take her on if SD wishes to do that. In any case she should be in the perfect spot for around here, if breaking on terms from stall 9. IF she repeats that run two starts back, she should place at worst here and should be the one to catch late on. You have to forgive her run LTO but she’s never run well at Donny and these fillies can just have ‘not today’ days, and bounce back. That was also a C4 and she drops back in class. She won on this card last season.

The fav looks solid given how he won LTO and with no penalty here. But, he can be held up which is never ideal around here and he has to prove he’ll handle the track. Both make 5/4 look short enough but he could win well again, nabbing Nick’s selection late on – hopefully she may have stolen a few lengths and he leaves his challenge too late.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

8.40 Worc – Forget Me Knot

LTO winning trainers

8.40 Worc – Shesasupermack

Jockeys/chasers

7.20 DP – Sir Ector

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points

6.10 Worc – Istimraar (10/1< best)

6.40 Worc – Darcy Ward (10/1< best)

 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

The Chasing Game (Summer): READ HERE>>> 

I’ve had my head stuck in HRB at various points in recent days and thrown together these notes which some of you may find useful – i’ll be printing them off and keeping them by my desk. All of the pointers are focussed on handicap chases, with first an all year round look at Dr Richard Newland. And then a focus on May to September (‘summer jumping’), with a look at a few trainers, jockeys etc. Hopefully you find it informative.

There are no plans to post any ‘qualifiers’ as such in the test zone as yet but i’m in the process of culling some of those I think, so i’ll see. 

For now, you can flick through HERE>>>

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Saturday Big Race Trends

Well there isn’t much on the flat this weekend, not from a stats/trends perspective with many of the C2s/big handicaps not that long established, + a few 3YO only which I don’t really like attacking. 

Of some minor use…

Haydock Silver Bowl

Trainers: (10 years)

  • M Johnston (2/16,5p)
  • R Fahey (2/16, 4p)
  • X1: A King / H Morrison / C Cox

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Results/Strategies Chat 

I’ll update the main strategies at the start of June, however in the meantime i’ve been looking back at various bits and pieces.

Firstly… the ‘on the scrapheap / to be monitored’ pile…

READ HERE>>>

This just pulls together those strategies, some of which were never advised as such, that don’t look worth bothering with ‘systematically’.

It includes Flat S1 and S4 – in June I do want to look back at these and see how those under 3/1 perform, as there’s a chance they run at a loss, and that may open up options.

This document compliments the two main ones which can be found in The Key (link in section 1 above)

  • The Strategies: ‘Where To Begin’ – Jumps S1, S3A# and Flat S6 : READ HERE>>>
  • The Strategies: ‘Other Ideas’ : Jumps W2 / S3A / S2A , Flat S3A# : READ HERE>>>

 

The ‘where to begin’ strategies haven’t done much as yet in 2019, but plenty of time 🙂 Jumps S1 is on holiday as Geegeez Speed ratings don’t cover summer jumps sadly. I do intend to play around with the Inform ratings system builder to see if I should be looking at some of their other ratings to compliment the section 1 qualifiers.

Those other strategies which are showing hope ‘systematically’ are Jumps W2 and S3A. (ES+) . The latter pulled in the same profit as S3A# last year (S3A# is the same as S3A, but when there are also 2 or more ‘ratings pointers’ – the red symbols) but from many more bets. But, Jumps S3A is ticking along well this year I think, and gives you more action if you wish. All of that should hopefully make sense when flicking through the above.

Starting Points… obviously part of the aim for the various stats content is to provide a ‘way in’, for those of you who enjoy using starting points to augment your own race/horse analysis.

In terms of ‘short cuts’ for this process, you could use some of the strategy qualifiers for that purpose… given the number or winners, win%, the likes of Flat S1 , S4 and S3A# in particular could be useful to help draw up your daily ‘shortlist’, before you then get to work. Jumps w2 and S3A would work on that front also, as well as those other strategies mentioned in the ‘where to begin’ doc. At some point I intend to create some ‘play book’ documents which provide some racing analysis ideas to help with that – albeit if you absorb any of mine or Nick’s write ups etc, how we think about racing may give you some ideas- as of course all of the excellent comments and many different approaches found there.

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ODDS… I have been through various jumps strategies looking at those with morning odds (what I add next to section 1 horses around 8am) under 3/1, and 3/1 or bigger. I’ve been through all posts in 2018 etc on the hunt for some strategy gold… alas I didn’t find any!!

However… of interest…

Jumps S3A# … those with morning odds under 3/1 were 19/36, +23 points over the year… so, if you follow S3A#, I think it’s best to just follow it- don’t faff around with any self imposed price limits. Albeit that’s your choice, but in 2018 ‘shorties’ did just fine, as you can see.

‘Double Top Rated’ – I was hoping there may be a strategy lurking here for the jumps picks, (eg a section 1 qualifiers with a H1 I1, or I1 G1 etc)  but alas there isn’t. Those bigger than 3s on morning odds didn’t do that well… 7/58, 22p, -21.

Those sent off under 3/1 could well be another ‘way in’, given they were 24/57, 27p, +5. Plenty of very short ones those and not a good systematic approach, but useful to know they operate at around a 42% win SR

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The Test Zone

The various angles in here were/are only to be seen as starting points, and are in the ‘test zone’ for a reason. I’ll do a 6 month results review in early July of some of these, but for one reason or another, having flicked through…

I have dropped/will no longer be posting qualifiers for…

D McCain x2 (3 angles made up his qualifiers, one of them – top weights- is still worth posting), Paddy Brennan, R Hobson, A Honeyball and ‘The Irish Angles’

I’ll continue to post all the others, and will keep the Jumps 2018/19 Fact Sheet going for this year – many of those are still useful ‘ways in’, if not great systematically as such.

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Josh

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

20 Comments

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  • Normally this evening would be spent giving the piggy bank an extra shake,rummaging down the sofa,rifling the wedding suit pockets for spare change,and advising any 7 yr old of a sound investment for their holy communion money.Haydock and Tom Dascombe and profit was expected.Unfortunately 2018 was the famine after the feast.The bookies seemed to have closed this loophole,the winners weren’t flowing.
    There are grounds for optimism though.Tom is in better form this year,had a winner just today and the prices on tomorrows runners are more workable
    3.20 Finoah 7/1,Liberation Day 12/1
    5.00 Zoffee 8/1
    5.35 Frankadore 11/1
    Small stakes patents may be the way to go on these
    Hoping for a return to the feast!

    gearoid180468 23/05/19 10:01 PM Reply


    • Kingscote in the hot seat aswel think il have a dabble with this cheers

      Ryan Mercer 23/05/19 11:38 PM Reply


  • I received a letter from Ashley Carr Westbourne Racing Club asking me to join his gambles. …
    5 gambles for the Derby meeting.
    8 days of well organised betting coups.
    Testimonials from Gary Moore, Brian Ellison and Charlie Longsdon.

    Does anyone have previous with this guy? what is it all about?
    He states a huge gamble on his own horse at Fontwell on Wed 5th June if anyone is interested.

    Look forward to hearing from any of you re the above.

    Mike

    mickeydee 23/05/19 11:28 PM Reply


    • Avoid like the plague.

      mangomasher 23/05/19 11:37 PM Reply


    • google him and you will have nothing to do with him ever.

      Martin Whittle 24/05/19 1:18 AM Reply


  • no selections again tomorrow but a few small ew’s for fun
    Goodwood.
    2-20. Pour La Victoire 14-1, won 5 times last year and surely can’t run as bad as lto again
    2-55 Tronada 11-1 only if all 8 stay in
    4-40. Knight Crusader 6-1, backed this a few times for a decent profit so owes me nothing and i’ll have another go.

    Martin Whittle 24/05/19 1:34 AM Reply


    • had another look at Haydock and in the 3-20 Excelled 25-1 might be worth a small ew distance winner on debut and if you can forgive season reappearance should have a good shout at a place at least back in a class 4.

      Martin Whittle 24/05/19 8:33 AM Reply


    • Only just noticed, we are on the same page with one or two, all the best Martin!!

      Stewart 24/05/19 9:48 AM Reply


  • (Handbrake on FLAT SELECTIONS)
    (14:20 Goodwood
    HANDYTALK 5/1 gen 1pt win
    POUR LE VICTOIRE 20/1 gen 1pt win)
    (16:05 Goodwood
    PUDS 9/2 gen 1pt win
    TIS MARVELLOUS 7/1 gen 1pt win)
    (16:40 Goodwood
    KNGHT CRUSADER 6/1 gen 1pt win
    EMENEM 12/1 gen 1pt win)

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with all your selections today!

    Stewart 24/05/19 8:29 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    W 6.40 – Junction Fourteen on 2nd run @ 11/2
    W .40 – Boutan on 4th run @ 5
    Festival
    G 4.05 – Green Power on 4th and 5th run @ 11/2

    Titus 24/05/19 9:07 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    2.10 Haydock Four Kingdoms BOG 7/2
    4.05 Goodwood Lake Volta BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    4.40 Goodwood Atomic Jack BOG 18/1
    7.00 Pontefract Duke Of Alba BOG 11/2
    NEW METHOD
    2.10 Haydock Four Kingdoms BOG 7/2
    5.35 Haydock Highwaygrey BOG 10/3
    8.10 Worcester Cottonvale BOG 7/2
    Colin

    cleafe 24/05/19 10:11 AM Reply


  • Jamie Osbourne what an honest and above board trainer think i have put 5 or 6 bets on here and they have won, he has no runners today.
    Charles Hills another trainer who is a little harder to read getting their i had a 16/1 yesterday.
    Richard Hughes another difficult to read, but feel reading between the lines getting their and backed one yesterday at 9/2.
    Lambourn trainers yesterday i had 6 bets and 3 won 11/4, 9/2 and 16/1, the above three trainers will be taking note of what they say.

    Charles Hills came on early today and reading between the lines i am backing
    2.20 Goodwood Wufud price at the moment widely 13/2
    Richard Hughes plenty of runners today but he may not put up his views till 1.00 or even later, just look at Lambourn trainers website and get the feel of how they write
    Colin

    cleafe 24/05/19 10:51 AM Reply


  • Playing catch up today so will post as I assess races….

    1.50 Gd Wd. Tricky race so caution advised. Audio has form with Flippa the Strippa that won for us yesterday and with a speed over 5 furlongs of 39.19 mph where the average over that distance is 37.27 mph there is much to like…with that kind of info available to the bookies why is this horse not shorter in the betting? Should be odds on really, so whyh is the horse odds against……personally, I think the horse has its quirks and the fitting of first time blinkers suggests this is the case and currently 11/8 will give it a swerve inspite of having the best mph figure of all those that have run. Spanish Angel was beaten 15.5 lengths on debut at Nmkt in a C3 so is a class dropper and ran a respectable 36.59 mph….though below average for the distance. He may well improve but too short a price to find out. Copacabana Dancer carries a penalty for a previous win but has run 37.32 mph over the distance so has obvious chances but I do not like backing horses carrying penalties in stakes races….Twice As likely ran 36.07 mph beaten 16.25 lentgths so has a huge task to get close to the aforementioned speed merchants…the horse has a good pedigree so may well improve from that run but too much of a stretch I feel….besides Spanish Angel, the other horse I like that has had a run is Secret Cecil. clocking 36.43 mph in a C4 at Salisbury the horse was beaten 10.5 lengths on debut… the horse did not get the clearest of runs according to RP comments but I like the pedigree and I like Salisbury form and at 25/1 represents e/w value, event though the initial run is below average for the distance. Flash Henry has a good sire pedigree and at the current price would have liked a bit more on the dam’s side but at around 6/1 is an e/w bet @ 5th odds for a small profit if placed. Dream Shot certainly has a chance but think the horse will be better over further but this cannot be discounted but I don’t like the price of 10/3 to find out. Treaty of Dingle’s pedigree is amongst the best on offer though the trainer is just 2/77 =2.5% which represents a price of around 40/1 so the industry price of around 28/1 is an insult…but bookies are not in the habit of giving anyone value, after all, as that is how they make their living…at 28/1 Secret Cecil is better value as it has had a run at least. I think it is one of those races so against the field are Flash Henry, Secret Cecil, and Spanish Angel at e/w prices. Gd lck with whatever you decide.

    silver 24/05/19 11:10 AM Reply


  • The Scoop 6… for any of you who may wish to play in David’s syndicate tomorrow, the email I just sent my ‘sccop 6 list’ can be read below…

    https://app.getresponse.com/view.html?x=a62b&m=uOXH6&u=WGi5&y=U&dont_redirect=1

    Josh

    Josh 24/05/19 11:35 AM Reply


  • I’m afraid life has been getting in the way of my 2yo plans.
    Anyway, worth refreshing this comment relating to the 1.50 at Goodwood.
    Spanish Angel – Well made animal but not more than 85% fit here. Poor picture makes him look more downhill than he was. Plenty more to come. Showed good early speed than tired quite rapidly as he was entitled to do given his tubbiness. Might be as good as the second and third nto. 83

    This was in the race won by Threat at Newmarket.

    I was at Goodwood yesterday and Balding’s 3yo winner 2to Wedding Blue looked superb so stable form is not a worry and I think that at almost 9/2 on Betfair this one offers great value.
    Hugh

    alpha2 24/05/19 12:12 PM Reply


    • Hugh where is Wedding Blue running?

      silver 24/05/19 12:23 PM Reply


    • Sorry I’m as thick as the proverbial…comments relating to Spanish Angel referring to how well Wedding Blue looked when winning yesterday! At 4/1 is, for me, good each way value though I suspect many would disagree and I cannot argue with that but only a small loss if placed…if it drifts def e/w at 5th odds. Cheers for the comments even if I am a bit slow understanding the reference!

      silver 24/05/19 12:29 PM Reply


  • 2.45 Haydock…. Favs 24/48 = 48% 2nd Favs 11/51 = 22% so 70% of the market 1st and 2nd favs and with only 7 runners, wonder of wonders, no e/w option. Pierre Lapin has the best pedigree along with Visible Charm, though the bloodline of the latter is truncated (i.e the X factor larger hearts is broken in places in the genetic inheritance) so we have 30% of the market to aim for. Top Buck has a good pedigree and ran 37.016 in the Lily Agnes, which given the conditions was respectable, though just below average for the distance. The RP comment was that the horse was staying on so connections obviously feel the horse will get the 6f here. Mr Kodi ran 36.68 mph ove 5f and was described as being one paced and Bravo Faisal was 4 lengths behind so will discount those two. Bad Rabbit I don’t think is good enough, despite having a fair pedigree, so that leaves Clog Maker, so if were to twist my arm a small win only bet on that one would be the answer at around 26.00 on the exchanges. Not a race to get carried away with and caution advised.

    silver 24/05/19 12:21 PM Reply


  • 3.30 Gd Wd…Another frustrating race with only 7 runners but I think this is more open than the betting suggests and do not like the fav…not only because of the short price but also because I do not think it is the best horse in the race. I like Alfaatik and Duckett’s Grove and Spanish Mission at the prices based on pedigrees If I had to choose one it will be Alfaatik but not a betting medium.

    silver 24/05/19 1:46 PM Reply


  • 3.35 Haydock…favs 6/25 = 24% 2nd favs 10/27 37%…..and at the moment 9 runners so e/w chances….on pedigrees I like Rhea, Perfect Rose and Golden Lips…Byzantia, the second fav, given the trainer would have a very good chance on pedigree having the same sire as Golden Lips…the latter has a better dam pedigree and and the prices would be the selection along with Rhea….Perfect Rose has had a run and clocked 38.51.mph over 5 f. at Kempton which is above average for the distance beaten 9.5 lengths on debut and was described as plugging on so there is a question mark over turf debut and also the extra distance is a question mark as well as a step up in class…….the Greatrex/ Watson combo has a good strike rate with 2 yo and Prestigious would have a chance on pedigree….so quite tricky to pick two at each way prices but will stick with Rhea and Golden Lips each way and if they get beat then so be it.

    silver 24/05/19 3:06 PM Reply


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