Members Post: 23/05/19 (complete)

Nicks tips x2, Section 1 (x1), review,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Chepstow

1.50 –

Ocala   (all Hc’s) I3 G1 7/4

Anif   (micro age)  w1 H1 I1 7/2 S1 

3.35 –

Tin Hat   (all Hc’s)  ES+  10/1 S3A

The Groove   (m age) G3 9/1 

4.10 –

Just Right   (m class) 18/1

Unzipped   (m age) 66/1

5.20 – The Detainee   (all Hc’s) 6/1

 

Lingfield

2.15 – Hollywood Road   (m dist) H3 G3 7/2 

 

Goodwood

None

Sandown

None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 11/64, 21p +18.1)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)

 

Daily Tips

None

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

5.10 Ling – Enthaar – 1 point EW – 15/2 (bet365) 7/1 (gen) 2nd, +0.4 

8.40 Sand – Ivegotthepower – 1 point EW – 25/1 (gen)

that’s all , as of 08.06 

I’ll play the game of ‘why has Nick picked these’, as he hasn’t had time to tell me the reasoning… (i’ll ‘demand’ write ups at the weekend!) 

Enthaar – race fit, lightly raced 4 year old, esp on turf, who drops from C4s into a weak enough C5, the only class he’s won at to date. Dropped 2lb from LTO and with a 7lb claimer (who’s 1/11,3p for trainer, which was here on the AW) he’s looking well handicapped, especially given some of his form. ‘Hot Form’ – The Kempton race in March has produced numerous winners, as has his Windsor run two starts back, where he was sent off fav but trapped out wide/up the middle which is never ideal there. There have been 5 subsequent winners from that race, including the 2nd and 3rd who were both rated 84 at the time. The horse in front of him, Puds, since ran well in a C2 and then won a C3 off 86. A horse 1/2 length behind him in that race has since won twice also. So, there’s plenty of substance to his form suggesting he should be winning at some point. A repeat of that Windsor run would put him bang there in this line up. The Leicester run does leave him with a question having just watched it back- he was bang there with 1f to go and did show some speed, also having been stuck on the wing. Maybe he didn’t get up the hill – however he did hang a bit under pressure, and it’s not impossible he found the ground lively enough – that can cause hanging, as can a horse having teeth issues as I was reading the other day. Sadly they don’t declare in the race-card whether the horse has seen the dentist!! 🙂 Back to 5f here on ‘good’, well drawn, I expect he’ll race prominently enough just off the speed. It could be he’s a bit trip-less/tricky, but he’s got the recent form to beat this lot, esp with the claim.

Ivegotthepower – a more speculative one maybe but the yard do fire in the odd biggie and I can see why interested at the price, although any market support given his profile would be welcome. The first thing I notice is pace-  there’s a chance he tries to make-all/dictates this field. The only other front runner is the M Murphy horse, but he’s changed trainers, has had 131 days off and when he;s led it has been a slow pace in small fields. So, Oisin may get to do his own thing here I suspect, which would be a positive, especially over this CD.

The question is well-being, given his run LTO was his first since July 2017, where his 3YO form had plenty of substance to it, winning races that produced plenty of subsequent winners. It has to be assumed that he needed the run LTO and having watched it back he does look a unit of a flat horse. Interestingly he didn’t have the visor on, which he wore to much success in 2017 when last seen.  And he did run well to a point there, albeit ultimately well beaten. The booking of Murphy is always a positive, especially this season given he’s chasing winners/the jockey championship and he’s clearly trying to build as many relationships as he can to help with that for later in the season – albeit i’m not sure what else he could have ridden in this race. So, at 25s, it’s best assuming he’ll run his race, despite a niggle that he may need another run or two, and given the break/injury until he gets competitive there has to be a question about what ability has been retained – which is why you’d want a tasty price.

Greenside and History Writer look dangers, albeit the former is open to attack from younger legs, but he did bolt up LTO and is a CD winner. HW can be held up out the back and Lush Life is usually held up also and has Spencer on, so no doubt will be. That isn’t ideal over this CD, making ground up this hill when those in front may not be stopping. Kitaabaat has his first run in 230 days and has enough questions – he looks short and I suspect the market will guide- he looks weak at the moment. War Glory has a question on decent ground, given his best form has been with cut and I think some of these have better form. So, you can pick holes in some of the oppo. Fingers crossed.

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4.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW REPORT… 

The Chasing Game (Summer): READ HERE>>> 

I’ve had my head stuck in HRB at various points in recent days and thrown together these notes which some of you may find useful – i’ll be printing them off and keeping them by my desk. All of the pointers are focussed on handicap chases, with first an all year round look at Dr Richard Newland. And then a focus on May to September (‘summer jumping’), with a look at a few trainers, jockeys etc. Hopefully you find it informative.

There are no plans to post any ‘qualifiers’ as such in the test zone as yet but i’m in the process of culling some of those I think, so i’ll see. 

For now, you can flick through HERE>>>

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Review of yesterday…

Max Forte… well until the fences down the back for the final time I was happy – he was jumping well, on the pace as expected, seemingly no excuse. He then lost his pitch, made a couple of slow leaps, and plodded home. I don’t want to make excuses I don’t think, for fear of hurtling myself off a cliff with him. It was his best chase run to date but still fairly moderate, and clearly he isn’t anywhere near as good a chaser as hurdler- and maybe he does have a mulish tendency at times. On paper you won’t find many weaker chases than that. I wouldn’t mind seeing him around Exeter maybe, but that could be clutching at straws. Maybe he’s paceless over fences. 

The winner… Scottshill…  well as always I think I should find every winner of these chases at a price, alas that’s obviously impossible but there’s always something to reflect on and take away. I’m not sure with ‘hindsight’ eyes i’d land on him however… I could have got into a place where I assumed the front 3 in the market were no good – and let’s say I assumed MF would jump to his right etc. The ‘way in’- well it’s Jonjo’s handicap stats at Warwick, esp chases, hence why he was in section 1, an ES+ qualifier. The horse was lightly raced over fences, Junior jumped back on, and they swapped the headgear again. After an early UR two starts back, it could be argued he may now be in peak fitness. All of this in context that it was a poor race, and his mark looked interesting based on a hurdles run over 20f at Southwell. You’d have thought there should be more to come one day. Maybe all of that combined, with an assessment of the rest, would have been enough to have a punt at 14s. I think i’m reaching ‘expert’ levels if I can find that type regularly! His pointing form wasn’t the best, (falls/PUS/stuffed) and his rules form to date wasn’t great. He hated blinkers it seems when first applied at Donny in a hncp hurdle (PU) and it was educated guesswork whether they’d do the trick this time. I watched his last run back pre race and it was woeful- he was awful at his fences, and it was a poor run, seemingly without any excuse to my eyes. He was beat before fitness would have been an issue, it was LH, same ground etc. The track wasn’t an excuse. But, the blinkers have seemingly worked second time up, ridden more prominently, at what is a target track for the trainer with his handicappers (the one thing I should have thought more about), and the yard going well. And in a race where plenty could fall in a hole/not run their race. Of the outsiders he probably looked most interesting, but in terms of what he’d done on the track, I found it hard to make a case. One of those. The odd thing I could have done better but i’ll live with that one, in the hope i’ll land on the odd one like that in the summer months. It was more of a stretch than the Vaughan winner to my eyes. He didn’t have any hot form of note, or decent RPRs to assess his ability. But, unexposed, doing a few things different, trainer’s course stats, headgear switch, poor race, a price where you could roll the dice. I doubt the form is up to much, even for summer jumps, but time will tell. Summer jumping is generally more moderate, and maybe closer attention should ‘always’ be paid to headgear switches etc. Silver Man ran a better race, but he is 12. Maybe he’ll pick something up around Cartmel, where he’s 1/4,2p over fences, and could attempt to make all there again at some point. But his legs have definitely slowed down, but nice to see him show more. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

  1. Karl Burkes Lord of the Lodge was my sole flat bet today and josh’s Scottshill made it a 20pt profit on day.

    Jim Boyle is in great form and has a very good record at lingfield.has 3 runners tomorrow
    Becky Sharp 2.50 16/1
    Quick Recovery 4.35 14/1
    Harrogate 5.10 20/1
    Of the trio Quick Recovery a previous cd winner looks a bit of value

    1. Can you tell me where you posted your Burke winner as I cannot see any reference to it?

      1. Good morning Gordon,I didn’t highlight Lord of the lodge,it was merely a statement of my days bets,but as Karl Burke seems to be getting his 2 yr olds rolling is a trainer to watch out for with this angle.
        I don’t even advise any bets,just my thoughts on the days racing,especially if there is a bit of value around.I don’t participate in the monthly competition because I wouldn’t have 20 a month I felt strongly enough about
        I thought Quick recovery was a bit of value in the 4.35 at 14/1,its now around 7/1

  2. Several to go at today and will post them as I assess them.
    2.00. Goodwood. Favs 48%. 2nd Favs 22% C. hills won this last year and has Buhturi in as second favs which is currently 6.00 on the exhanges…to me this is the one to back…just a pity there are only 7 runners now…no surprises there as the bookies like a fix……Clan Royale the shor priced fav is no value (that is not to say it cannot win)..it is currently 1.54 on the exchanges, suggesting a 65% chance of winning…Favs have a 48% strike rate so should be a shade of odds against by that reckoning, so not for me. The 6.00 of the second fav represents 16% chance of winning and 2nd favs are 22% so what is not to like about the price? I think the Hills runner has the best pedigree…the disadvantage is that the horse lacks a run and experience of a previous run is an advantage which the fav has…the speed of the Clan Royale’s run was 36.78 mph…the average is 37.27 so not quite up to standard given the short odds on offer so not a bet for me, even though it was described as running on. The other horses of interest in terms of pedigree are Wild Thunder, Subutai and Swinley….Wild Thunder I think will need further and both Subutai and Swinley would have a chance, just a pity about the seven runners as the latter would be a good e/w bet. Hope this helps…back later.

    1. only the favourite has raced before that gives it a statistical advantage over the field, also has a good draw.

      I liked Rain Cap due to Channon’s record with 2 year olds (including first time out) at the track recently and also has a positive record with Bishop with un raced 2 year olds – 9 winners from 35 since 2017. Has a bad draw though so has that to overcome.

      1. Hi James…cannot disagree with the logic of the fav having statistical advantage but, for me personally, am willing to let the horse win at the prices…the other horse you mentioned does have a good pedigree, but in my opinion, and this is only my view which may well be proved wrong, will not be able to compete if the pedigree is anything to go by…famous last words as it bolts up!!! All the best with whatever you decide to back.

    2. My selection dwelt which cost the horse the race and Wild Thunder just squeaks in and the fav was very disappointing and was correct in opposing…any layers out there celebrating!?

  3. COLINS BETS
    2.30 Lingfield The Secrets Out BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.45 Goodwood Sucellus BOG 4/1
    3.45 Goodwood Al Mureib BOG 11/2
    5.10 Lingfield Enthaar BOG 11/2
    5.20 Chepstow Charlie D BOG 5/2
    8.30 Chelmsford Luxford BOG 9/2
    NEW METHOD
    1.50 Chepstow Ragstone View BOG 7/2
    3.45 Goodwood Mustadun BOG 16/1
    5.50 Chelmsford Always Amazing BOG 9/2
    8.30 Chelmsford Sharp Operator BOG 15/2
    9.00 Chelmsford Queen Of Kalahari BOG 14/1
    Colin

  4. 4.20 Goodwood….As the betting suggests, this may concern the top three in the market…..Shambolic is a fair fav being priced up to the 44% favs chance in the race around 2.90 (representing 34% chance) and has run an average (36.1) plus speed of 36.27 mph over the distance in a quality race. 2nd favs are 13% which equates with a price of around 7.00 on the exchanges and at around 11/4 for both Grace and Danger and Aloe Vera the bookies are under pricing these two by some considerable margin given the 13% strike rate with 2nd favs….an outsider at around 50/1 is Love So Deep which on my adjusted figures may out run the odds event though was behind Grace and Danger by about 8 lengths in the Chester Oaks race. If Aloe Vera was a better price I would be interested in this runner clocking an adjusted speed for course run of 37.61 mph in a C5 event…at the prices there is no value….at the prices the fav has to be thewin only value bet with Love So Deep e/w for a place. The bookies are stitching everyone up the way they have priced up the race so caution advised.

  5. 4.55 Goodwood. Fascinating race as there are some very well bred horses…Terebellum has a beautiful pedigree and may be a cut above the rest in that regard…at bigger prices I like the look of Hawafez and Wild Cat in terms of pedigree and prices. Of those that have run Maamora is the best clocking a very respectable 36.63 mph over the 10f. with the average being 36.153 mph so is above average….the pedigree is also good (not as good as the other horses mentioned but has the benefit of experience having had several runs)… the other way of looking at this is to consider the horse is too exposed now and something may improve past her. Favs are 33% and 2nd favs 25% so the market has them about right…the question is…do I want to back either of them? Chartered has to be respected both in terms of pedigree and recent runs, though slightly below average on the latter run. The same applies to Dawaaween at a better price, so a really tricky race to decipher. On pedigree Terebellum has to be the choice and against the fav will take a chance on Hawafez and Wild Cat e/w to outrun their odds but caution advised if playing as at the time of writing I have not decided if I will be playing or not, come race time I may still have splinters from sitting on the fence in this one!

  6. 6.35 Sandown….A shortie for this race which may win but at the prices cannot back this…will put up Flippa The Strippa against win only …the reason? ……on adjusted figures clocked 38.59 mph in a C5 as opposed to the fav clocking 37.19 mph (adjusted, though the actual speed of the race was 36.84 mph and below average for the distance)…class may prevail especially given the stable and jockey but Flippa may give the fav a fright evev though stepping up 3 classes may be a step too far.

    1. Brilliant call on the Strippa Silver, won back most of today’s stakes, thanks a lot!

  7. 7.05 Sandown…of the three Johnston runners I prefer Austrian School to Dee Ex Bee but not a race to get involved with. The reason, on adjusted figures, I just have Austrian School doing 35.78 mph compared with Dee Ex Bee clocking 35.41 mph….but watching brief.

  8. 7.35 Sandown…very trappy race so will take a chance on Danceteria….the Elwazir speed was difficult to assess as the horse was eased in the final furlong of that race but will have these two against the top two in the market. In the ten runnings of the race Stoute has won this 4 times and Ryan Moore five times so hard to discount Regal Reality but price selection prefer the two at bigger prices.

  9. RETURN OF THE SBC

    Yes, for one night only (probably not actually) George and I have conflabbed on Facebook and come up with the following for Chelmsford tonight. Steady at the back now, no time for laddish banter 🙂

    6.20 Lothario and Arlechhinos Leap

    7.25 Philomundo

    8.30 Arlecchinos Arc and Luxford

    9.00 Mr Potter, Black Truffle EW.

    Roll up, roll up these are genuine George B system selections having gone through the MC Filter.

    Solo extras : can’t blame GB if these crash and burn. In the 7.25 I am saving on Dommersen although do really like the S BC selection Philomundo. 8.25, I am going EW on Carvelas and Mans Not Trot. Finally in the 9.00 Tarseekh has a chance of a place.

    Good luck if you play, George sends his regards.

      1. Cheers Josh, GB is still obsessed with HRB and is churning out new systems as I type 🙂

  10. 8.10 Sandown Hard to see past King of Comedy in this clocking a fast 38.86 mph in a C5 at Yarmouth over 8f…36.74 is the average over this distance so am surprised it is not shorter in the betting. Kingman is the sire of moment and has five progeny running including King of Comedy and Raakib Alhawa may be the best each way alternative of the rest…..Sangarius and Bell Rock may be the best of the rest…the former did not have a clear run and had to be switched and Bell Rock running over 7f ran on well so may be worth checking out as other each way alternatives to the fav. All the best.

  11. Jamie Osbourne
    8.40 Sandown Lush Life
    Says that it has a massive chance with Jamie Spencer in the plate.
    Colin

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