Members Daily Post: 22/05/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x2 , Daily tip x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, new report/notes, poll results

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Warwick

2.55 –

Knight Destroyer   (all Hc’s,micro class and -class)  ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A

Kereman   (m distance)   w1  w2 H1 I3 8/11

3.25 –

Cap Horner   (m class) H3 I3 5/2  UP

Monsieur Arkadin   (m LTO) 14/1 S2 UP

Scottshill   (all Hc’s,m class and +dist)   ES+ 14/1 S2 S3A WON 14/1>10/1 

3.55 – Mister Universum   (m dist) 9/2 

4.25 – Whatduhavtoget   (m dist) H3 I3  9/2 

 

Southwell

8.15 – Reckless Behaviour   (HcH)  ES+ 15/2 S3A

 

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FLAT

Ayr

2.30 –

Raffle King   (m class) 14/1 

Cupids Arrow   (m class) I3 G3 12/1 

Tadaany   (m class)  w2 I1 18/1 S6 4th 14/1 

Loulin   (m class) H3 12/1 

Racquet   (m class) G1 20/1 S6  UP

4.35 –

Dragon Mountain   (m dist) 6/1 

Corton Lad   (m dist) 6/1 

Maulesden May   (m dist) H3 I3 G3 3/1 S4

Can Can Sixty Two   (4yo+)  w2 I3 16/1 

5.05 –

War Advocate   (4yo+) H1 7/2 

Pudding Chare   (4yo+) G3 15/2 

Foxy Rebel   (m class) 33/1 

5.40 –

Rosemay   (4yo+) I3 G1  9/1 S6 

Skito Soldier   (m class) 25/1 

 

Yarmouth

2.10 – Harvest Ranger   (m age) 33/1 

4.45 – Glory Awaits   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 G1 11/2 S3A#

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 11/64, 21p +18.1)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)

Daily Tips 

3.25 Warw – Max Forte – 1 point win – 10/3 (gen) 3d 11/4 

…as of 21.45. (and 07.40 Wed) That’s all for my tipping on Wed. 

To my eyes this race is all about whether this one can transfer his hurdles form to chasing. If he does, he wins. It’s as simple as that. If this were a hurdle race he’d have claims to be an odds on shot against this mediocre/lower class opposition, especially given some of these look out of sorts and have far too many questions to answer. 

The selection came second in his point to point and I think there have been excuses for his first four chase runs. Well, his first two he was PU, and his rest pattern/form profile around that time simply suggests he, and maybe even the yard, were just out of sorts. He just didn’t run his race. In October of last year, his first run of the season, he came a 5L second at Cheltenham, over hurdles, in a class 2 pertemps qualifier off 122. Clearly if he ever repeats that run over fences he’d win with his head in his chest off this chase mark of 106. After that hurdles run the wheels appeared to fall off, and again he was badly out of sorts when trying chasing again. As he was when reverting back to hurdling. After his run on the 10th of March he had a wind op, and it would appear to have done the trick. He’s run two very good races over hurdles against solid animals, rated much higher than anything in this. His current hurdles mark is 117. It could also be that he doesn’t like racing in the deep winter months. 

He is worth a go back over fences and I just wanted to take a chance at 10/3. Like I said if he transfers that form and jumps, he wins. Given the opposition I was happy to roll the dice at this price, which does look big to my eyes! The niggle is that on the odd time he has tried chasing he’s gone out to his right slightly. He’s never raced over fences LH , it may well be what he wants. But I wouldn’t fall off my seat if he edges that way. I don’t think it will be a problem as he has been straight enough having watched his chases back. If he starts going violently to his right, obviously it will be game over. They must think he’ll be ok this way round and he’s never tried chasing when in such rude health. His jumping over fences has generally been solid. He is also a proper good ground horse and seemingly hates any cut. A few of those chase runs were in softer and one was over far too short. He looks a unit, the weight won’t be a problem and he should just keep galloping. I may know my fate early on here but on the suspicion he may blow this lot away, i’ll take the chance. 

If he hates going LH which is my only niggle really (or he does just hate chasing- but as I said valid excuses for his efforts to date imo) then who may pick up the pieces? Well the old boy Riddlestown would be the most solid at 9/2 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he followed up his win LTO, if mine fluffs his lines. Cap Horner is solid but he’s short enough given all his best form is in soft. He does arrive in form also, so I can see the case, but i’m not sure as to the strength of his form LTO. He could win, but I can leave at 3s, for all that he’s only 7, generally jumps well and should just keep galloping. 

I’d have it between those three. I can leave the Newland horse at his price given how tricky he is – a proper mule. The headgear switches and that may work wonders and he has some decent enough hurdles form in the book and it’s only his third run over fences. But he is a recalcitrant sod and i’d want a bigger price given his questionable attitude at times. If he’s clearly on a going day half way through this, he could go well. 

The other four can win, and i’ll cope with it. They all have form, ability, well being or fitness questions. Or all of the above. They are far too risky to my eyes and if one of them bursts into life, then so be it, I was struggling to make a case. 

Fingers crossed MF can transfer his hurdles form to fences. It will be an enjoyable few minutes if he does. His class, and my views on the oppo, make him a bet at this price despite the odd niggle. 

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

3.55 Warw – Leapaway – 1 point EW – 7/1 (gen) 2nd  +0.4 

5.05 Ayr – Pudding Chare – 1 point EW – 8/1  UP 10/1  -2 

that’s all for Nick’s tips, as of 07.47

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers

4.25 Warw – Mcgroarty (9/1< best) 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

8.45 South – Bonsai Bay 

LTO winning hurdlers

6.45 South – Twycross Warrior 

7.45 South – Global Tour 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

6.15 South – The Wicket Chicken 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

166 of you have voted now, and it makes for some interesting/informative reading…

[poll id=”26″]

 

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NEW REPORT… 

The Chasing Game (Summer): READ HERE>>> 

I’ve had my head stuck in HRB at various points in recent days and thrown together these notes which some of you may find useful – i’ll be printing them off and keeping them by my desk. All of the pointers are focussed on handicap chases, with first an all year round look at Dr Richard Newland. And then a focus on May to September (‘summer jumping’), with a look at a few trainers, jockeys etc. Hopefully you find it informative.

There are no plans to post any ‘qualifiers’ as such in the test zone as yet but i’m in the process of culling some of those I think, so i’ll see. 

For now, you can flick through HERE>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Colins bets etc
    At the Hospital for 8.30 am the worst one for me to get to Taxi booked for 7.40 am, under 3 different Hospitals at the moment, the fantastic NHS really looking after me.
    Will put the bets on when i can could be late racing starts at 2pm so should be home before then all being well so keep looking.
    Serious business 4 years ago responded to the Bowel Cancer test, they had me in thought i had cancer had the camera check 3 times in 13 months turned out clear, so just a camera check today and you are able to watch the procedure on the TV screen in glorious colour fantastic!
    Dr O’Connell said they only have about 40% respond to the test and if i had not responded 4 years ago then 2 years down the line would have been in serious trouble nutshell probably dead by now so please go for the Bowel check when you are sent the test kit believe they have brought the test down to 55 year olds now,only put this up for a mate will not go, told him in front of his wife he his an idiot for you do not know what is growing inside you.
    This is a medical alert from
    Dr Leafe.
    Come on Chubnut you must respond to this, do not let me down for you are missed, cannot believe i am saying this ha ha

    1. think it’s still 60 at the moment Colin, just got mine through the post a few days ago which i will be doing this weekend, had the same procedure myself a couple of years back better viewing than Eastenders 🙂

  2. Kempton Park on Wednesday:

    5.55, Padura Brave, 1 point each way at 20/1 as at now. The horse makes his seasonal debut here. A course winner twice and has won two of his last three, albeit it at class 6 (this is a class 50 race. A 5LB claimer on board, whic takes off weight and keeps the price bigger.
    6.25, Nahham, 2 points win at 11/2 now. Two from two so far and now stepping into handicaps. The trainer and jockey partnership are in good form at present and the horse has a course and a distance win.
    7.25, Dubai Romance, 2 points win at 6/1 now (bet365). A Goldophin debutant filly by Dubawi out of a Storm Cat mare. Could be value here if tuned up. The trainer has good course form and I do not see why the stable would not want to win this race.

    Good luck.

      1. I am out in the mornings and so have to post up the night before. The 20/1 did look good but you have to get on it the night before and let us not go on to that debate again. It may still be value at 12’s if you can get a quarter the odds a place.

  3. rushed off my feet this morning but should be back about 11-00, there is a couple of biggies that i think are way overpriced will postlater.

  4. COLINS BETS
    4.45 Yarmouth Glory Awaits BOG 9/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.05 Ayr Najashee BOG 11/2
    3.55 Warwick Competition BOG 14/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.45 Yarmouth Nasee BOG 7/4
    4.45 Yarmouth Glory Awaits BOG 9/2
    8.25 Kempton Diamond Reflection BOG 12/1
    Colin.

  5. It’s going to be a blank day for me. Bbob Alula qualifies but the jockey has scored only the one win since 2017 and is 0/9 @ Yarmouth from his whole miserable career. He’s been riding as an apprentice since 2011 and he’s still claiming 5 lbs! Come on Ryan…. give the punter’s a break and consider a career change.

    God damned horse will probably win now, but I can’t put horses up that I’m not backing myself. Had some ‘me time’ yesterday cos I had to take a break from the sun due to over exposure. My partner is still going strong like women do, but I’ve taken advantage of the situation and have managed to sort out some decent summer jumps bets by narrowing the filters for winter hurdles down by specifying only stables that show consistent returns from novice handicappers from May to September.

    Going to test it later today and all being well I’ll start including them soon.

  6. today’s selections.
    Ayr 2-30. Jessie Allan 22-1 1/2 pt ew
    Yarmouth. 2-10. Spanish Mane 9-1 1/2 pt ew

    i have left a bet of 1/2 pt ew on The Resdev Way @7.0 on the exchange very doubtful it will be matched but not going to back it at a shorter price.
    also had a couple of small ew’s at Yarmouth just because i thought they were overpriced
    2-10. Percy Toplis 40-1
    4-45. Marilyn 50-1

      1. got matched on Resdev Way 🙂 so staked 3pts , returns 4.6 pts , up 1.6 pts.
        at least got paid out on Percy Toplis placing which paid for the others.

  7. Nothing again to day as poor quality in general including the 4.05 at Ayr which does not have enough runners for an each way selection so will wait for better betting opportunities tomorrow.

  8. Kempton AW

    5.55 Looks to be between the front two in the betting. Capofaro is 4lbs worse off with the Varian horse for 2lengths, but Jamie thinks he’s still on the up. Agree with Martin that Padura Brave worth an EW saver.

    6.25 Astonished is dropping 3 grades and has good T/J stats. Course specialist Rampant Lion the danger, price inflated by poor turf run lto. Now back on favoured surface.

    8.25 Croeso Cymraeg to win, EW savers on Apex Predator and Sellingallthetime. AP has had another wind up and could even win.

    8.55 I can’t split Coverham and Chloellie. Perhaps a reverse forecast?

    Good luck.

    1. What a great honest guy Jamie is love his videos my type of humour.
      Will be upping their runners so more winners from the mans mouth himself, looking forward to the next few weeks for no doubt he will pass on a few winners.

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