Members Daily Post: 21/05/19 (complete)

Nicks Tip x1 (NR) Section 1 (complete), test zone, price point poll…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Brighton 

4.10 – Roy Rocket (all hncps/4yo+)  5/1 

4.45 – Andalusite (m class)  12/1 

 

Nottingham 

None. 

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JUMPS

Huntingdon 

7.10 – 

Thibault (hncp h + m class move) 30 5/1 

Malangen (m TJC/runs) 14,30 w2 H3 5/1 

Northern Bound (m class) w2 H3 10/3 

 

Hexham 

5.50 – Sleep In First (all hncps + m class) H1 I3 7/2 

7.20 – 

Beyondtemptation (hncp h) w1 H3 I1 4/1 

Placedela Concorde (hncp h) 14,30 I3 10/1 S2 S5

For Three (all hncps) w1 H1 I3 15/8 

7.50 – Flying Jack (nov hncps) 14,30 H3 6/1 

8.20 – Spinning Scooter (nov hncps) 14,30 I3 14/1 S2 S5 

8.50 – 

Farlam King (hncp h) 14,30  H3 I3 13/8 

Donnas Dream (m age/runs) I3 20/1 S2A S5 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 11/63, 20p +19.1)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)

Daily Tips

None on Tuesday, no 3m+ chases I wish to dive into, the Hexham contest is a novice handicap, a 0-105, and i’d rather not. I suspect I used up some luck playing in that Ludlow race.

At long last that Daily Tips pile is starting to look respectable, not that the overall 2019 tipping pile is just yet, but that’s now +33.5 points in the 3 month since I went back to focusing on the staying chases. I’d bite your hand off to repeat that every 3 months and i’ll be working hard to do just that, on average. 

I still can’t get my head around the run of Jefferson Davis. Connections clearly wanted to avoid lighting him up in that headgear, back over fences, given his inexperience. And also wanting him to get home over the trip. Dicky, bar the last, has just ‘let him’ jump and even more so after an error at the first. He also made a cruncher 2 out and I think Dicky thought game over, i’ll just get him home. Thankfully he looked up to see those in front paddling. He got stuck in, more in hope than expectation I suspect, and he’s flown (relatively), in a manner of a well handicapped horse, as expected. The jump at the last was a thing of beauty, making up his mind and launching him at it. Game over for the rest. It looked more impressive as the others were walking through treacle, but it was a thrilling way to win. The £10 I got matched at 1000/1 on betfair in-running made it all the sweeter… ahem, i jest, i wasn’t even clever enough to have £2 on! 🙂 That’s despite it being clear to my eyes that he hadn’t really got stuck into him and I thought the leaders may stop. Alas, the greatest of all hindsight bets! 

What can I/we take from that race? Well the winner won’t be that price again anytime soon and given his profile I wouldn’t have touched him below 8s I doubt. You wouldn’t want a short price but I do hope they ride him more forward NTO,  although maybe they think he needs to come through horses to perk him up, and can’t be in front too soon. Some of his jumping was sticky and he does look a mediocre summer jumper. It could be that, second run after a wind op, it wasn’t until Dicky got stuck in that he realised he could breathe/there was no pain, and away he went. I believe that’s  ‘a thing’ and why second/third run after a wind op can work better than 1st run. Anyway, job done, for Nick and I. 

Billy Hicks is the one to take away for the future.. he definitely has chase wins in him, possibly around Southwell or Sedgefield, as he generally jumped well, if not to his left at times, and he appeared to handle the ground. He was lit up in 1st blinkers- always a danger- and that failure to settle may well have cost him, as he ran out of gas. Whether they work again remains to be seen. It could be he doesn’t quite see out 3m, but he’d be worth chancing over it again if dropping his head, which is always possible in second time headgear. He did try and isn’t a shirker on that evidence. Where possible trainer/jockey like to be aggressive with their chasers and at least he knows how to win. He should be picking up a small chase or two this summer, making all somewhere. The right three horses came to the fore in that, albeit a mediocre level as discussed. 

 

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

5.25 Notts – Requited – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) Non-Runner 

As of 08.05… a polite reminder for the exchange users out there to ideally hold off placing any bets etc for at least an hour, or even just 30 mins, after the horses has been posted 🙂 thanks 

 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

7.50 Hex – Capmonfor 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

7.40 Hunt – Alltimegold 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

41 Responses

  1. I rarely back odds on. Has to be something special. Anything evs+ Is fair game if value.

  2. From the day before about clerk of the courses giving out false going article from Mark Johnson trainer on RP website urges tracks to rein back on over watering, busy today and did not ring Dai to find out why he pulled his two out at Stratford but would imagine it was over the going claims he has had issues with Stratford before over watering.
    Colin.

    1. yea tricky, jumps tracks are between a rock and a hard place at this time of year. Anthony Honeyball has strong views that firm should never be anywhere near the going for summer jumps, should be good / good to soft and should be watered as such – I looked at the times for Stratford and they were 10-20 seconds below standard which would suggest a slight bit of give I think, nothing major, certainly not firm and nor soft so can’t think there would be an excuse. Unless it walked a certain way pre race. But the times suggested it was as advertised I think.

      I mean it is what it is sadly. The sport is stuck in the dark ages with official going and it really needs sorting through some independent ‘going’ body, a subset of the BHA, who do it centrally imo, with accurate readings pre race. But alas, that isn’t going to happen so I don’t tend to think too much about it. I don’t have much energy for negativity too often. It is what it is, however much I may wish to complain. And my general viewpoint is that there is enough accurate information, or information, and enough ‘straight’ activity , to both enjoy this sport and profit from it, certainly recreationally. I may have a different view if I were betting for a living, and placing large large wagers, selectively, and where such accurate info is more important. That may be why many of the big big syndicates etc focus on the likes of Hong Kong, given there are more constants in race/track conditions etc. and it’s more data rich.

  3. Tuesday’s selections.
    Brighton.
    2-00. Storm Lightning 10-1, 3 x c&d winner now back on a very winnable mark and has Ceiron Fallon up claiming 7lb which is a plus.
    4-10. Iballisticvin 18-1, probably silly to go for something in the same race as Roy Rocket at Brighton but this c&d winner is now 7lb below last winning mark and is back up in trip and on the ground he likes.
    Nottingham.
    4-55. Knight Commander 12-1, this one should come with a health warning as is 0/22 on the flat but was very unlucky not to break his duck at Wolves going down a neck 2nd after being taken out to the left in final furlong.
    Hexham.
    5-50. Sense Of Urgency 9-1, 4lb below her c&d win and is back on a track and the going she likes.
    all 1/2 pt ew.

    1. Regarding your poll Josh, I’m of the view that value is value regardless of price, however, purely from risk vs reward perspective, I seldom bet below around 9/4 unless there is striking credentials, I will often try to find an additional bet to go with the selection to make it a touch more exotic, this increasing the reward, for what I would view as not necessarily equal increase in risk. This of course depends on finding an even money “certainty”, which as well all know, aren’t bullet proof. But to the original point, I rarely back singles below around 9/4 purely on the basis of risking a point to win a couple just isn’t worth it.

      1. Agree with this, I’d be the same. No proof, just an observation, but there seem to be more short price losers these days (maybe just mine )

      2. Hi Lee, yep I mean when it comes to staying chasers, certainly those that are not certain to make-all/get an easy lead, there’s often plenty of horses in the way and obviously a few fences to jump! So I suppose that may make anything under 3s say a bit risky – but of course we have to adapt, especially when field sizes are smaller etc , and i’ve been guilty in the past of having false price points, irrespective of today’s race etc. Going under 3s say, in my race type of choice, may be asking for trouble longer term.

        I was reading some analysis that in jumps handicaps, in the last 6/7 months or so, 15% + more favourites had been winning. Whether that’s a longer term trend or just one of those things, we shall see. I won’t use that as an excuse for my poor big race form, but for my type of approach in those races, favs winning is rarely good news!

      3. With all due respect to anyone’s’ views surely the only absolutely sensible answer is the top one! Anything else means that people are CHOOSING to ignore the possibility of value. Imagine getting 6/5 every time on the ‘toss of a coin’ or 7/1 every time on the roll of a Dice! :-)To ignore such possibilities due to simply drawing a line at a certain point is really only a personal bias. Our problem in Racing is the differentiation between so many of us as to what constitutes ‘Value’.

        1. ha, well yes I mean Value is subjective, and one of the reason’s the game is so much fun/engaging and we’d be a bit buggered if we all judged it in the same way, esp those who price up the races first up!

          I do think it’s harder to make it pay at the top end as obviously you have to be right more often, so can understand why some wouldn’t go too short etc and have a cut off below X. I certainly don’t want to get in the habit of looking at the top end to often in order to find value- as I fear that may detract longer term from finding those bigger priced horses, where long term most of the profit is found I think. I can see the case in my race types of choice- 3 miles, x number of fences, x runners – is there a price point that should never be touched? who knows.

          1. I think you were right earlier Josh, in the types of race you specialise in nothing under threes, for the reasons you mention, ie fences, other clumsy horses et. That was kinda my point when we had our spat, probably my fault for explaining badly 🙂

          2. Oh I think of it as a mild disagreement and water under the bridge. Life is too short for me to get het up about such things albeit I think a bit of on edge sparring is good for the soul every now and then… Where’s Chubnut when you need him?? Haha. There can be value at that end…I wouldn’t have touched him if I knew he’d anchor him at the back for example. But yea under 3s say may be asking for trouble. Anyway, on we march.

        2. The toss of a coin or dice value scenario only relates to a large sample, at least 10,000 instances and ideally one million. Over a period of 100 events the value would be random. If we are talking horse racing then value can apply in all races and does generally. That is why it is a big advantage to set your own tissue on a race. When would Crystal Ocean have been value last week? I had it at 2/5 and it went off much shorter and so no value. I keep it simple so as to cut down the amount of thinking I have to do each day and so treat betting as a process to simplify it. I do not bet lower than 9/4 and do not think about each way until I am getting at least 2/1 a place, at the same time looking for value as well.
          I may well lose out on value below 9/4 but the effort I would have to put in in such races is not worth my time over a year, I think!

          1. The question is was 3/10 value when you backed it and not what the SP was. In my view no but the judgement of value is subjective on a singular bet and we can only judge it based upon our performance over a period of time.

    2. staked 4 pts, returns 6.8 pts, up 2.8 pts. went off 3-1 fav !!! must be my great tipping rep 🙂

  4. COLINS BETS
    Brighton
    3.35 Juanito Chico BOG 7/1
    4.10 Gendarme BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    5.05 Wolverhampton Skyva BOG 9/1
    Colin

    1. Well two different aspects of racing through my bets
      3.35 Brighton Juanito Chico dwelt in rear do not know if its me but have been noticing this dwelt quite a bit lately guess what the stewards did not look into it, the next race they did look into one which dwelt.
      4.10 Brighton Gendarme 2nd did Gary Moore think that Brighton was now NH with his horse winning by 13 lengths and its previous win was October 2017 on gd/sft and once again the stewards did not take a look into King Of The Sands improvement.
      Josh if you read this could there be an angle in with these dwelt runners next time they run, for it is very easy for the jockey to take the blind of slightly slow and also in the stalls again easy to give a slight pull to slow the horse down leaving the stalls.
      Colin.

      1. there probably is, but not one you can automate, you just have to watch and note them down, and add them to a tracker.
        There are no doubt ways you can be naughty in the stalls, but most of the time it’s either human error (hood is on for a reason and for some has to be left as late as pos) and/or the horse is a monkey, and will have done it before. These animals are trained to break/flight when the stalls open, near enough impossible to stop them going out IF the horse wants to go forward – some of them are just not great at breaking on terms- but for very experienced jockeys I suspect there may be ways to rush the start a 1/2 second too soon, or indeed to be sat back, and miss 1/2 a stride at start – at least that way you ensure there are a wall of horses infront of you!

        But, if you’re setting up a horse for a gamble etc, I can’t think you’d want it to get into the habit of breaking slowly haha

        But, my days of watching this mid week dross are sadly behind me, my eyes/energy only on these chasers now bar the big meetings/Sat trends handicaps.

        But there would be some validity in tracking them, if you have the time to watch the replays and note them etc. And check if the horse has done it before etc. Most of them have. Blessed missed the start through inexperience/recalcitrance once, when SDS was on, which was annoying for all given how she flew late.

  5. My flat eyes must be improving as I picked out Requited too last night.alas its not running.My own journey started out with 5/1 and under.Had enough winners but not much profit.Now I look at other end of market looking at 10/1+.i am not good enough to figure out if a 3/1 shot should be 6/4,but can see how a 16/1 should be around 10/1,thats a margin for error of 6 as opposed to 1.5.

    Stoute runs Lalsleena (8/1)at Nottingham,good strike rate with his 3yo olds here.Think Dane O’neill is second jockey for owners and not too good a record here but sometimes Stoute puts up an outlier if a punt is going down.

  6. Wading into the odds debate. Personally I don’t back anything below 3/1 but I can respect people that do. What I think its absolutely totally daft is multiplying your stakes for the lower odds bets. You wouldn’t be wading in that low odds unless you felt the horse had an extremely good chance so why suddenly stake 2-4 times more than usual when the reward is already lower than if the price was higher. So many services fall down on that account.

    1. That’s interesting Nick, I do find myself doing that on occasions. Food for thought.

    2. I don’t think that is daft at all. The size of the stake represents the strength of the selection. Get an almost certainty like Crystal Ocean and fill ya boots.

      1. We can agree to disagree there Andy. That’s perfect way to lose a whole year’s worth of profit that way.

        1. I agree with you to a certain extent,but if we all played the same way, your 10/1 shots would all be odds on. I don’t have massive bets at shorties that often but have to say even at 3/10 that was a gift. Strangely enough there was another today in the first at Wolves, another Stoute horse, Crowley’s only ride of the day, backed this morning at 1/2 went off 1/4. Not as big a bet as Crystal but enough to pay the days wage.

  7. Hi Josh
    Just rang Dai and it was over watering why he pulled his horses out at Stratford one was not going to run anyway he also said that Uttoxeter the other night had over watered and would not have taken his horse there if he had known.
    It is not only the punting side that is the issue, but owners have to pay transport costs along with the grooms to travel they have to pay the farrier to put racing plates on the horse alongside the entry fees.
    So pleased a top trainer has finally come out and said something the BHA may take more notice from Mark Johnson than they ever will from Dai.
    Colin.

    1. I think the summer jumping game is a different issue from what Johnston has issues with on the flat. He thinks summer flat ground should be good to firm as standard and he’s right, so over watering is a real problem.
      Summer jumps is different esp if you have dodgy weather forecasts. I’d rather they over water than under water and leave ground too firm. You’d get NRs the other way then. And such ground is dangerous to horse’s health.
      Yes those costs are what they are. Most trainers will include them in their monthly fees, only charging extras when necessary which is usually vet related. Unless you’re travelling a long way beyond average. And any extras would hopefully come out of win/place prize money if you’re lucky. We had the odd surprise vets bill with ‘the girls’ but it is what it is.

  8. No time for any AW musings today, so these are just my bets at Wolverhampton:

    14.20 Eye of Water, Maisie Moo EW

    14.55 Something Lucky, Gifted Zebedee

    15.25 Frenchmans Creek, Pytilia EW

    17.05 Little Miss Daisy, C.Laird EW.

    Good luck if you play.

    1. Nope nothing you can’t see in the formbook haha. Sadly not running in our colours anymore, Amy owns outright. I’m writing this as they are loading the stalls. She should go well, possibly short enough given her mark, but she should run her race and try, and that will get her deep into this. SDS made a hell of a difference LTO I feel, we shall see what RK can do. Hopefully she wins again!

      1. Hmm, she was a bit flat again there, maybe last race took enough out of her, or she didn’t like Richard’s hands haha. That was a piss poor race she won LTO, and arguably collared an idling horse in front, and inspired by SDS. That may well have been too deep for her, but she is what she is bless her. Think she’ll be kept in training by Amy until end of the flat season, so she’ll keep popping up and with any luck may drop in again, when in the right race. She may have done too much on the front end there, not sure.

  9. ROI for show, ROC for dough would be my 10 pence worth…strike-rate seems overlooked by many – a lot of professional gamblers have ROIs of <5%.

    High strike rates mean your betting bank doesn’t need to be as big and so the effect of that has to be that you can afford to stake higher.

    Appreciate value is harder to find at the top end but if you had a choice between two tipsters:

    – one had a 20% strike-rate with 20% ROI and the other a 10% strike-rate with 40% ROI, there would be reasonable grounds to choose the former as your betting bank would need to be less than half the size statistically.

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