Members Daily Post: 20/05/19 (complete)

Daily Tip x1, Nick’s Tips x1, Section 1 (x1), test zone , poll

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

None

 

FLAT

Carlisle

2.45 – Rux Ruxx    (micro TJC) 20/1 

3.15 – Ghayyar   (m TJC and age) G3  7/1 

5.15 – Our Charlie Brown   (m age) 10/1 

 

Redcar

4.35 – Kwaknga   (all Hc’s,m going)  ES+ 7/2 S3A 

 

Leicester

None

 

Windsor

None

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 11/63, 20p +19.1)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)

Daily Tips

3.55 Ludlow – Jefferson Davis – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BetfS/PP/UniB) (11/1 Betway) WON 9/1> 11/4, 10p R4. 8.1/1>11/4 

that’s all from me, 08.52, write up…

 

Well i’ve cursed Nick here but decided that this one was the most interesting horse in this race and the numerous risks were worth chancing at his odds, and even more so in the context of how woeful the opposition are, especially on recent form. This must be one of the worst C4 chases to have been run at this track in some time. 

Jefferson Davis – this horse has the potential to blow this lot away if he can somehow repeat his hurdle run fours starts ago, back over fences. That run at Limerick was his last in Ireland but on RPRs it was a career best. It coincided with a step up to 3m (over timber) for the first time, and the return of the blinkers (worn once on the flat in Jun 16). His first run for Tim Vaughan wasn’t too bad, in a C2 surrounded by 125+ horses. He was sent off at 66s there but was holding a position turning for home. He then ran here over hurdles and was woeful. He wasn’t unfancied there. He had some time off, a wind op (which they must have felt he needed) and returned at Warwick 25 days ago over 19f, sent off at 33/1. He was held up last, was visibly outpaced down the back, and just coasted home under hands and heels. 

The English handicapper has eventually relented and put him more in line with his Irish mark. He came second off 108 at Limerick and our handicapper put him up to 121. He is now 1lb below his last winning mark over hurdles. That Limerick run was decent form also – he split two horses who went on to win a few races, inc the winner who was a 130 chaser but got his hurdles mark up to 120. That sort of form, combined with some of his RPRs indicates this chase mark is very workable, if ever transferring that ability. This is only the 5th chase run of his life and some of his beginners chases were not without promise. I’ve watched the Tramore one back and he stayed on there over 22f, having jumped ok. At Down P NTO he looked outpaced at times. That’s a tight/fast track, but he jumped well and was staying on when slipping on landing 3 out. He’d have been well beat but would have been closer. There is ability in there, it’s just whether Vaughan can unlock it. So, he now steps up in trip, back over fences, Dicky returns, it’s his second run after a wind op, and the blinkers return.  Vaughan is also in decent form – 3/19,4p last 14 days, with Dicky in the last year they are 9/36,13p, +28, and he does well at Ludlow with his chasers. 5/20, 10p in handicap chases last 5 years, +12, 4/13,6p in C4, 3/11,5p over 24f. At 10s i’ll roll the dice that all of those changes/factors may make a difference here. They may not…

Wind ops / tongue ties / various headgear should generally be seen as negatives in my book. There’s a chance that he’s just gone at the game or hasn’t settled into his new surroundings yet, despite being only 6. And clearly he’s a bit of a rogue at times and not one you’d want to take a short price on. It could be he never jumps a fence, travels or gets competitive. If he doesn’t run up to his best, then this race looks open enough…

Between The Waters… well he’s a weaker 6/4 shot than yesterday’s winner at Market Rasen I think. The level of his form is poor and he has stamina to prove- i’m not sure he’s the strongest stayer over 3m. However, he is fit, in form, and looks likely to run his race. He’s the only horse you can say that about in this line up and he is the right fav. But he’s the sort that in this sort of race, over time, I want to take on. You don’t want any unknowns at this price point, or unanswered questions. And he has a few, namely class and stamina. 

I couldn’t really have the rest. Vallyeofmilan has the ability to win this or used to. He’s 12 now and has been lightly raced recently, with another 162 days off. His recent profile suggests he’s had a few problems so I can leave him. As it does Amber Gambler – they don’t seem to be able to get to the track for a prolonged period and it looks like he has issues. At his best he’s be able to win a race like this but just a few too many niggles for me. I’d want to see more before trusting him at single figure odds. 

Wilberdragon isn’t in great form either and needs much more than LTO. He can throw in the odd sticky jump and also has stamina to prove. I couldn’t go near him at 5s, and if he beats me so be it. The same can be said for Billy Hicks – he looks moderate at best, out of form, has stamina questions and the form he does have has been on softer ground. But, it’s only the 13th run of his life, the 5th chase and he gets 1st time blinkers. They may well unlock something. Such is the mediocrity of this race if they work and he ran well here I wouldn’t be shocked. But it’s just guesswork really. At least with the selection I know this headgear has worked before. Oh and he does get a Tongue Tie.  He could be the other interesting one and you can cobble together some sort of case. He’s lightly raced and doing a few things different. 

I can leave the 1/75 Boxer Beat although he’s shaped recently if worth another go at this trip but I can leave him and if he wins, well it would sum up what an awful race this is. Sussex Road is 0/50,1p, is 150/1 and hasn’t really shown anything. The only way he’s winning this is if everything else fails to complete…

So, this race is about whether Vaughan can unlock the ability his horse has. I suspect he’s been on the phone to the handicapper with some harsh words, and he’s relented.  If he runs his race he has enough ability, and is handicapped, to win this race well. Hence the dabble at his price. But, he could also tail off! 🙂 

 

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Review… sadly Return Flight failed to take off at Market Rasen… no excuses really. He led at his own pace and jumped well. It was exciting until they turned for home where he appeared to start treading water. I’m not 100% convinced that it was stamina that beat him, although maybe he just didn’t have the legs up the straight, plodding on. It wasn’t the strongest of races really, proper summer jumping form I think although the winner generally travels strongly, jumps well and does know how to win – that’s worth plenty at this level. I’d drop return flight back to 2m5f max, and he may soon be dropping into a C5. I’m not sure i’d want to wade in with him again, but I suspect he’ll decimate a poor field at some point this summer as he does look very well handicapped again. Poor old Vendredi Trios bumped into another one and will need to be well placed but his consistency should be rewarded soon if they can find him a race lacking in progressive rivals. I suppose the lesson from this race, bar taking on the wrong fav, is to be wary of those horses that don’t win very often. I know that sounds obvious but Vendredi was 3/33 before that race, and mine was 2/24, all career runs. I’m not sure there’s a scenario where such figures can be seen as a positive. While some horses may just be unlucky, it may be some indication of a questionable physical and mental constitution. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

3.55 Ludlow- Jefferson Davis – 1 point EW 12/1 (bet365) 11/1 (gen) WON 10/1 (declared) > 11/4, 10p R4. 9/1>11/4 . +11.25 points (1/4 odds as down to 2 places) 

that’s all from Nick today, 08.04… it probably makes no difference but if you do use the exchanges, if you could wait at least an hour until after the tip has been posted that would be great. It takes change at this time of day to force the exchange price down. 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

4.55 Lud – Global Tour 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

3.55 L – Between The Waters 

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5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

60 Responses

  1. Don’t shoot me down here. I’m gonna select a shorty 🙂
    Well that’s a fib.
    This is risky but at the price i think it’s worth it.
    4.05 Redcar – Soie D’Leau 20/1 EW
    The form lines for this race have got my head in a mush but I kept coming back to the race that this horse had last year beating Blue de Vega at Thirsk.
    Maybe it’s because SdL has had a wind op that it’s the rag of the field, who knows.
    I really considered the R Cowell duo of Haddaff & Blue de Vega but the form of the stable and the poor record today’s jockeys over this course puts me off.

    1. Another dart at a fat price
      7.00 Windsor – Helvetian 20/1 EW
      Back to 6f and its last winning mark OR89
      Won a cl2 6F hcp at Salisbury off 89 and now runs back on turf over the distance again.
      Victory Angel would be a close consideration but again it’s Cowell’s horse and the stable ain’t firing. (you just know what’s gonna happen don’t you!)

    2. was looking at the same race Andy and was coming down on the side of Haddaf but i might swerve it completely , i do like the look of Helvetian though and i’m having a go at that.

        1. I like Hadaaf too and although jockey has poor record here, I personally think he’s a good jockey and has ridden a few nice winners for me recently so it hasn’t put me off
          Fingers crossed

    3. Oh Andy G after the weekend on Racing To Profit closer inspection must be required on Merry Banter.
      Off to work.

      1. Ah cryptic clues! 🙂
        Spell it out Greg.
        MB was beaten in this race last year off 78, has it improved from 4yo to 5yo (now or84) by 6lb to take it this year?. My thinking is no. But that’s my thinking!.
        I keep coming back to the Cowell horses as the main threats. We’ll see.

  2. Hi Josh, just a quickie. I joined RTP on the 5th December 2018 on the winter season ticket and would like to know when my subscription is due for renewal. I thoroughly enjoy this site and for sure will be renewing and would just like to say a huge thankyou to your good self and all who take the time and trouble to post their selections. Great work guys and once again a big thankyou.
    Kind regards, Tom.

    1. Hi Tom, I’ll email you on Monday albeit if you’re logged in on desktop, the log in box in top right has a link which should show you expiry date etc. But I’ll email and confirm tomorrow. Josh

  3. no selections today.
    after napping all day dosed up on cold remedy’s can’t get to sleep so been through all the cards,
    i even had a look at a couple of old systems one of which threw up a couple of interesting qualifiers
    distance winner in first time headgear
    Redcar 4-05. Haddaf 12-1
    Carlisle 5-45. Twin Appeal 13-2

    Sussex Road runs today in the Lulow 3-55 a 52 race maiden 42lbs out of the handicap, watch it hose up at 150-1 🙂

    Finally a “best form” lucky 15, basically long shots who would have a very good chance if running to their best ever form.
    Carlisle.
    2-45. Classic Pursuit 50-1
    4-45. Five Helmets 20-1
    Redcar.
    5-35. Swerved 16-1
    Windsor.
    6-30. Spring loaded 16-1
    10p ew L15 = £3 for a bit of fun.

  4. COLINS BETS
    Redcar
    3.05 Dancing Mountain BOG 4/1
    4.05 Duke Of Firenze BOG 5/1
    Carlisle
    3.15 Tadaawol BOG 4/1
    5.15 Jacob Black BOG 15/2 down 2 grades for this from last win 2 days ago, trainer hitting form this month and he often runs his horses within 7 days, we shall see!
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    3.05 Redcar Dancing Mountain BOG 4/1
    5.45 Carlisle Knowing Glance BOG 11/4
    Colin

      1. Oddschecker say 9.07 they could not have updated their page for look at prices then type them up straight after, so on their page around 10.10 they still were showing it has a runner.
        No doubt they would say a computer blip.
        Colin.

  5. Hi Josh…any stats on Tim Vaughan with new recruits from other stables contesting hdcp chases?….struggling to get my head around why you would want to tip in the worst race on the card! On trainer and jockey booking I can see the logic ( but whoever said horse form was logical!) and the write up is very good but too many imponderables for me to venture forth especially at the current prices at around 7/1…must get up earlier to snaffle the 12/1 and 10/1 available ! I looked at the lorna brooke runner Boxer Beat and has never won on the going and never won at the class and at the current price of around 15/1 on the exchanges is a joke price as are all the other prices put up by the bookies…no wonder they make a profit….in what is by your own admission ,such a crap race…..not “having a go” in the light of recent comments but as a flat enthusiast first, learning the National Hunt game (the main reason I joined) I am struggling to find the logic of tipping in such a bad race…on the flat I look for better quality races as the horses are more likely to be consistent to give me an edge so avoid class 5 and class 6 races and the majority of hdcp races as well as certain courses…what criteria do you use to sift the races into options that tip the percentages in your favour and is this something that is quantifiable…all the best with the selection but will treat this race as a learning exercise and take lessons from the analysis….gd lck with whatever is backed to those playing.

    1. Hi Silver… it’s not the horses first run for the yard.
      a) he has the past form – both performance on RPRs and ‘hot form’ (how races have worked out/produced winners, as some indication as to his ability/his mark/how competitive races have been etc) to win this race and win it well.
      b) the race being awful is a positive IF you can find a horse that you think is value and may run well. My judgement was that at 10s+ he was worth a go in this line up for all the reasons stated.
      c) the expectation is that he will improve for second run after a wind op (will have had some quiet weeks post op/before return and no doubt needed it, but not sure he’s quick enough for 19f but didn’t have any headgear on, and no Dicky which is still a sign of intent from this yard), improve for the step up in trip, the return of the blinkers, and the return to fences- a code where he is still unexposed and in theory should be more to come one day. Combined with my video analysis that I think he jumps fine so, in this line up, with time and space and lobbing along, he shouldn’t have an excuse there.

      I’ve made a judgement on a horse that I think is overpriced – I couldn’t have touched him at single figures I doubt, certainly not under 8s, as he does have a few questions, but there are logical reasons for why he could improve. It’s not the sort of profile i’d want to play too often but if you’re going to do it, doing so in a race where you can make a case for all the opposition falling out the back of the TV, isn’t a bad one to do it in. In general I agree with you about better quality racing and more consistent animals. But it’s a game of price, and on this occasion I couldn’t resist. I’m prepared to be left with egg on my face

      Remember, i haven’t gone through today’s racing and decided this is the race I want to play in. The Daily Tips just focus on 3m+ handicap chases, C4+ and if I can make a case I will. They are the race types I need to get back to specialising in on the daily front as it’s where I’ve been best historically and I enjoy analysing them the most. He could blow this lot away, he could struggle, but given he could do the former on my analysis, 10s in this line up looked worth a go.

      Exchange prices etc at this time of day are pointless as there simply isn’t any liquidity in the markets, but bookies have to track those prices to ensure they are not picked off by the traders/bots etc. It is the last 20 mins or so where it all changes, i’d be surprised if Brooks horse isn’t much bigger nearer the race. I wouldn’t be shocked if that one ran ok but i’m not touching a horse that’s 1/75 and aged 12, with stamina to prove. At least mine has youth on his side and is lightly raced over fences!

      p.s – you can ‘have a go’ (polite) as much as you want before the horse has run! 🙂 The reasoning for the selection is detailed and clear, and you can agree with it or not, that is the point in the write ups so at least you know how I think. A perfectly valid case can be made for that horse at the odds and why he could improve today, and leave behind his three previous runs for the yard.

      1. Hi Josh..many thanks for the explanation, does clarify a lot more than is in the write up and at a double figure price can see that this would be a “logical” selection given the criteria of tipping in 3m+ C$ hdcp chases…not interested in “having a go”…. I have always approached such situations as trying to understand the “why” of someone’s thought processes rather than the “what” of what they are saying…far better to understand the “why” than be judgemental about what is actual being said…as far as the race itself, the prices offered for all the runners are as atrocious as the race itself…hope the selection come up trumps and appreciate the explanation.all the best

      2. Logic wins out with Jefferson Davis winning going away ie if all the runners are crap pick the least crap……well done Nick and Josh…shame about the price…shortened all the time then down to 7 runners so e/w diminished but good analysis and found your explanation for the choice really helpful in broadening my understanding of trying to read NH races..good spot.

      3. That horse sorted both of you out. it WON and what a short price. I guess Josh and Silver must have lumped on.!!! I only got 8’s

  6. just noticed the vote …..value is the choice with the caveat not if odds on even if value as the poor house beckons…. your own strike rate has to be exceptional to make a profit and if you have that kind of money what are you doing backing odds on shots as you evidently don’t need the money in the first place!

    1. I analysed my systems results over a year last October and it showed I would have made a loss betting under 4/1. That is therefore my choice for my selections.

    2. Bloke in a pub that i used years ago would only back 10 to 20 odds on per year that was his bets for the year and he lived off what he made from them.
      If i recall he would only back on Grade One courses, never had the courage to try this, doubt would have the discipline to wait 4 to 6 weeks for a bet and certainly not the money to risk this investment but it worked for him.
      Colin.

      1. Interesting info Colin….you would have to have a fair chunk to begin with and the courage to try this …gd luck to anyone brave enough to do this and make a living doing so….too much of a chicken to even try and certainly have not that kind of money to even think about doing so!

    3. Value, like beauty, is in the eyes of the beholder. I like to keep thing simple and stick to it as it avoids too much over thinking. I go win only 9/4 or better up to 8/1. Then I may go win or each way dependent upon getting a 1/4 odds the place. Over time I have not find any long term value below 9/4.

  7. Hi Josh. Where can I find all of the main strategy results? You used to have links to Flat and Jumps results in Section 1 above but they are not there now. Would be useful to see results to date for the flat and summer jumps strategies. Cheers

    1. Hi Ken, in the link above in Section 1 you can find the old Key. There is a ‘where to begin’ doc with Jumps S1, S3A# and Flat S6.
      There’s also a ‘other ideas’ doc, with Jumps w2, S3A, S2A and Flat S3A#.

      There are no ‘summer jumps’ strategies as such, those links in Key updated to end of March and at end of this month i’ll update again.

      I’m going to drop some of the test zone which haven’t performed that well, albeit they are only advised as a ‘way in’ anyway, and some are still useful for that.

      There’s the spreadsheet updated end of April which I post for a few days at start of each new month in section 4… that’s here … http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/rtp-april-19/

      I’m updating a doc sort of called ‘in the bin’ which essentially is all those not mentioned in the list above , as they are not worth bothering with, albeit some of them were never advised as such, likes of jumps S5 has forever been in test mode to see if it could replicate S1, but it doesn’t. Flat S1 and S4 are ok as ‘ways in’ and will tick along over time, but systematically the ROIs are low, and i’m not sure worth the bother given no. of bets.

      Josh

  8. 2.00 Redcar…..Insania clocked 38.41 mph at Thirsk of 5f on gd going and despite the penalty will take some beating ….the average time for the distance according to my figures is 37.27 mph so well above that. Of those that have run Knight Cap clocked 37.77 mph at Thirsk on gd going over the same distance so is a direct comparison …..whether the horse can improve to beat Insania and/or take advantage of the lower weight against Insania and running off a 2lb lower weight from LTO is questionable at the prices. Lower weights do not equate with a faster horse…you cannot strip down a morris minor to a seat and chassis to compete with a ferrari…but may give the fav the most to do of those that have already run…Troubador missed the break and may improve, Loolabelle, according to the racing post, was never better than mid division so difficult to assess both runs….Bob’s Oss was beaten 17.5 lengths in the Insania race and again, according to the racing post, was very green on debut. Trainer stats are problematical with Dods 7/59 @ 12%
    being the only one in profit for 2 yo and the only jockey in profit at 20% (8/40) is Tony Hamilton…both trainers Ryan and Fahey have to be respected so that leaves Troubadour, Don Ramiro and Pearlwood to give Insania and Knight Cap a run for their money. Personally, I prefer lower weights in stakes races, just as I prefer higher weights in hdcps, though neither criteria any guarantee they will win so with the jockey stats it has to be Pearlwood e/w at the prices. The horse has a good enough pedigree to be compete, providing it is fully tuned up. Troubadour has to be respected and would be the other e/w selection against the top two in the betting.. I like Don Ramiro’s sire Sir Prancealot but may be better over further..we shall see..hope the above is helpful.

    1. Always an interesting read Silver. I can’t pretend to understand some of it, esp the MPH figures discussed and their importance to todays race etc / their chance.

      1. Hi Josh…congrats on your winner…have posted this elsewhere how useful the explanation of your choice helps me understand the NH perspective. MPH is calculated by this formula 3600 secs in an hour divided by time of race in secs multiplied by the distance calculated so that the distance is based on 8 furlongs…..Example: 7 furlong race is run in 82.46 seconds = 3600 divided by 82.46 seconds = 43.65 seconds…multiply this by the distance of the race… in this case 7 furlongs…as a fraction of 8 furlongs this is .875 ( i.e 7 divided by 8 = .875. so 43.65 x .875 = 38.2 mph. A 10 furlong race divide 10 by 8 = 1.25…so using the base line of 8f you can calculate mph by any distance : 6f multiply by .75 etc….I use this as it is a more realistic calculation than using Beyer speed figures and one step closer to the actual performance of the horse…it is no the be all and end all but gives me an accurate way of assessing a horses run and the quality of a race….I have calculated what the average times and speed of a race should be over a given distance according to my criteria that gives me a universal standard by which to compare a horses performance…hope this helps in understanding the process better…congrats again.

        1. Fascinating…. oh no need for too much congratulation, i’m still on a salvage mission!! Just nice to hit some form and those staying chase eyes have been working well since back end of Feb, but need to sustain it if possible.

          I assume then from working out all those times/ standards etc, you then look to see how the time was achieved – i suppose the best is a horse that does very well on your figures, that obviously came from a strongly run race? I suppose that’s where sectionals etc come in. I can’t say it’s ever something that i’ve studied in great depth, using the odd speed ratings as a guide. But everything related to time depends on pace doesn’t it, especially on the flat? And at what point in the race they hit top speed, and for how long they sustain it? It’s a fascinating area, too complex for a chat in these comments no doubt!

          I think of Tommy Silver at Kempton, who on Good to Firm ground in a 3 runner race blew apart the CD record, which is the King George trip. Well, i’m not having him winning a King George! But that was seemingly down to just how fast the ground was, albeit he was going to hack up NTO but for going wrong, so maybe he was on his way to become smart, but not grade 1 smart!

          1. Hi again Josh….I make allowances for the going which I have posted previously and for different courses at different distances…all times as per racing post and focus on the fastest horse over distance after making adjustments for going and different courses…I try to keep it as simple as possible as the more complicated you make it the less likely it is to be a true assessment. The overall time of the race by Racing Post figures gives me an indication of how strong the form is as Racing Post tell how fast or slow the race was compared to the standard course time for the race, regardless of the class of the race…cannot calculate pace or sectional timings but look at the racing post comments to see if a horse has quickened or stayed on, was hampered, was given a tender ride etc., and make an educated guess if a horse looks as if it can improve… the beauty of the method is the overall speed of the race so you get the accurate capabilities of the horse and does not matter regarding sectionals or the pace of the race as this is taken into consideration by the overall speed of the horse so if it ran slow at the outset and quickened latter or vice versa is reflected in within the overall speed of horse so top speed during the race and varying speed and pace makes no difference if that makes sense….if a horse has a bad draw a speedy horse will be able to compensate and the overall speed on previous runs give me an idea if the horse has the stamina to see out the distance if having to make early race exertions…hope this helps.

          2. No probs…you can always e-mail me if you want further info but think I have covered the main points…this took a while to develop via trial and error and is not fool proof or the magic bullet that will produce winner after winner but I wanted to produce a way of looking at races on the flat that was different from the tried and tested methods around and the next logical step is to get an algorithm set up to factor in the various criteria to speed up the analytic side of this but cannot see me doing that as do not have the capabilities. Any way enjoy the process in the same way you want to solve the 3m chasers conundrum…all the best

  9. 2.10 Carlisle Burke and Dods two trainers to concentrate on so Rayong and Leapers Wood have chances on pedigree…prefer the former to the latter on Trainer and Jockey combination and is an e/w 5/1 shot…money back if placed at 5th odds. Dragon Command ran 36.36 mph at Doncaster in 5f race and was green early on but stayed on well according to the racing post so may well improve but with 37.27 mph being the average is beatable at the prices. Star of St James has a pedigree that looks fine along with Ice Skate and having had a run the latter could outrun the odds but with the trainer 2/56 and a loss of £49 with 2 yo not one to dive into…overall a race to be cautious with.

    1. As usual the second string e/w selection pops up and wins in the shape of Troubadour but at 40/1 plus that was available not complaining about that….hope some one else was on.

  10. 2.35 Redcar…if Insania wins th 2.00 check out Classy Lady in this race..was 3.5 lengths behind Insania at Beverley on 25th April…that was a slowly run race of 35.15 mph and Insania won next time out time out clocking 38.41. mph…if the same improvement happens to Classy Lady then the projected speed of the horse should be in the region of 38 mph…this may well be false logic as the horse does not have a good pedigree ans will have to some to beart Ross of Kildare which has clocked 38.97 mph and Leave em Alone clocking 38.78 on adjusted figures…Calippo has a good pedigree but a tricky race to get involved with.

    1. Ross of Kildare does win at 6/5…not a backable price for me and my each way shot came nowhere but happy with all the results so far.

  11. Windsor 20th May 6f & 5f fillies novices plus Newbury review

    I’m probably best keeping my opinions to myself at the moment after Separate’s performance in The Marygate. In fairness, she missed the break and I think Frankie very quickly decided it was not to be her day, despite meeting some trouble in running she still ran on to be sixth and I have not changed my overall opinion of her. I had backed Good Vibes on her previous outing and she did this well. Evans says she is the fastest filly he has had.
    Tonight at Windsor I will just put up the pre race scores. It is possible Charlie Appleby will mop up both races but the fact that in the last five years he is only 1 from 10 at Windsor with his 2yos suggests he only sends the ordinary ones and I will be hoping to find something to oppose him with in at least one of the races.
    Windsor 6pm 6f Fillies Novice
    4.25 Love Love, Star In The Making, Theory Of Time
    3.75 Fashion Free
    3.25 Lethal Talent, Shani
    3.00 Where Next Jo
    Windsor 7.30pm 5f Fillies Novice
    4.25 Divine Spirit, Ocasio Cortez, Pink Sands
    3.75 Red Cinderella, Dynamighty, Company Minx
    3.25 Candid
    Newbury review to follow
    Hugh

    1. Not your fault she missed the break, Hugh. I really value your opinion, it won me a few bob last year, cheers!

  12. Newbury 6f Maiden May 17th review
    I don’t think this was a very good race It is easy to see why Light Angel is so named as he was certainly not imposing and I didn’t like the Stoute 2yo Heaven Forfend much either. The time was 4 secs slow as well.
    Pictures: https://imgur.com/a/Yj8ffKn
    1. Light Angel – Nicely made but light and small colt. The fact he went off 9/2 helps to suggest the stable were as surprised as I was that there was not anything better in the race. 73
    2. Heaven Forfend – Backed into favouritism because he was by Frankel perhaps. No reason looking at him although the rumour was that Stoute was getting him out early to be ready for Royal Ascot. Good luck with that. 70
    3. Jim N Tomic – Quite a good looking chap, plenty of strength and depth for his size. His price reflecting his trainer’s record and I too dismissed him on those grounds. 75
    4. Golden Horde – this one carried my investment and although he was hampered was probably deserved no better. Maybe C Cox’s aren’t quite firing yet. 75
    5. Swiss Bond – this was where my saver went at 100/1, despite JPS up who almost always holds up his 2yos thus rendering their chances reduced. Strong type by comparison with most. Not fully fit. Should win a small race. 72
    6. Sir Oliver – Another better sized model, similar to Swiss Bond in that he was not really fit enough and also a bit roundy at the back. 69
    7. Baadirr – Small and unappealing. 67
    8. Indian Creak – Chunky model 65
    9. Walton Thorns – 64
    10. Ziggle Pops – Looked a bit better than this run, maybe too straight in the shoulder. Improve 68
    11. Gypsy Rocker – 45
    12. Pilsdon Pen – Big strong type, ran ok for a long way then eased when hampered. Not fit. Better next time. 65
    Hugh

  13. I’ve said it before when Nick and Josh pick the same only one result!!!!
    Excellent stuff, chaps!!!
    Some ride too!!!!

  14. Some ride by Dickie Johnson there, well done Nick and Josh. Any idea what it touched in running?

      1. ah balls, see that’s the really clever bet, to have £2 on him at that price!

        It was some ride. He’s clearly as tricky as they come – well, connections would know he is, hence the headgear, and they did light him up and they won’t have been 100% about the trip – so those tactics, esp for one who may not wish to be in front too long, made perfect sense. I was watching it bemused thinking after 2 out Dicky had still not got stuck into him – I wasn’t sure if he didn’t feel right underneath. I thought front two were treading water, fav doesn’t stay that well and the England horse had done far too much in blinkers, and also doesn’t stay- so it looks more impressive than it was but he had plenty in hand. It was an awful race though, the form is poor, and I hope they may at least just track some pace NTO, but job done. Shame about the 10p R4 but we can’t be picky – one less horse to have got in his way!

  15. Yes, we’ll done Josh, fair play to you on that one, your reasoning was right on the money.

    1. cheers Mark, appreciated. That’s what my shorty was mean to do haha, alas he didn’t pick up his sodding legs! Maybe going under 3s for any handicap chaser, given the fences, is just foolish, or in any case a key part of going with a ‘shorty’ must be that I think they will make-all. That eliminates plenty. At least I picked the right fav to take on there. I’ll send you some rotten fruit for you to throw at me, pre race, next time I go short haha 🙂

  16. 6.00 Windsor….. trainers are Watson 40% 4/10….Cox 32% 10/31.( Hannon 29/144…not profitable but does well here) so Star in the Making, Fashion Free and Love Love must be noted. Love Love ran 36.44 mph (full explanation in post above in reply to Josh regarding how MPH is calculated) over 5f and this is below my average for the distance of 37.27 mph. Shani has run 35.90 mph over a slightly longer 5 f. (5.08f to be exact) so is nothing special (famous last words) so nothing exceptional about th two that have had a run but experience does count but impossible to quantify if below average runs as horses do improve from the first run in general. Rosadora has a good pedigree and is worth noting as is Xquisite at 100/1 which may run well…..Favs are 34/66 = 52% and 2nd Favs 11/54 @ 20% so Theory of Time would have a favs chance given the quality of the trainer and jockey. Fashion Free and Star in the Making would be the two e/w against the top two in the market but it is a race that requires caution…

  17. Windsor 6.30 The Tin Man is the bench mark running 39.38 mph over the distance in the course of his career but is no price….Spring Loaded, the outsider may well put it up to the fav along with Dream of Dreams…not sure if this a betting medium given only 6 runners so perhaps one to watch .

  18. Well done Josh and Nick, blimey Dickie did well with that one, especially after clouting the first, class 4 is just below what i normally go for so well done to you both for picking that one out!! Swings and roundabouts… short price one get`s done over and this one wins from well off the pace, suppose that`s why i love NH racing more than the flat!!

    1. It was a strange one, i’m not sure Dicky thought he had the horse/or was getting there, but then he saw the leaders stopping, tapped him and he flew. It was clearly deliberate to be patient, get him jumping (and yea error at first didn’t help) and to get him to see out the trip. Anyway, we won’t complain! That’s what the shorty was mean to do, but alas. I can’t say I was overly confident when he held him up, for all I was thinking through the final 5f that those in front should be stopping soon

  19. 7.30 Windsor…last race with trainers Cox, Spencer and Hannon having the best records of those that have run Ocasio Cortez has run 36.38 mph over the 5f and Bainne Dubh has run 37.22 mph over the 5f at Thirsk but the running of the latter was somehwhat let down on the form by Knightcap’s running at Redcar earlier which got beat. …so looking for an each way alternative in Company Minx for Cox at 14/1..favs are 37% but would not be surprised see Ask Siri, Jungle Boogaloo or Bainnee Dubh pop up at bigger prices…Dynamighty for the Spencer yard would also not be without a chance …just got that feel about the race so caution advised…Company Minx will be the selection a the pedigree is very good and Cox has a good record in these kind of races.
    That is it for today in terms of selections …..will not be putting anything up for tomorrow as a poor days racing for the tyhpes of rces I look at…be lucky.

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