Members Daily Post : 19/05/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.15 –

Istimraar   (all Hc’s,micro class)  w2  ES+ H1 I1 Evens  S3A# WON Evens>6/5 

Compatriot   (HcH,m runs)  w2 5/1 

4.00 –

William H Bonney   (m dist) H3 I3 9/2 

Late Night Lily   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 5/1 S3A UP

4.35 – Bandsman   (all Hc’s,HcCh)   ES+ 7/2  S3A WON 7/2 

 

Stratford

5.20 – Silent Steps   (all Hc’s) H3 I1 7/1 

 

 

FLAT

None 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 10/61, 19p +12)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/18,8p, +6.25)

Daily Tips

5.10 MR – Return Flight – 1 point win – 7/1 (gen)  UP 9/2 

that’s all from me today, 08.48m write up…

I thought he looked the most interesting horse in this race and 7s was more than fair and allowed a dabble. He returned to action 12 days ago after a break where he wasn’t overly fancied and only ran ‘ok’. Given his quick return to the track i’d like to think that has put him spot on here. The yard are in cracking form also, 3/14,7p in the last 14 days. This former Skelton inmate is now becoming dangerously well handicapped off 108, having bolted up for them previously off 117. It was only 6 runs ago in July that he was finishing a 2 1/4L 3rd in a C3 off 117. So, in theory he should be finding an opportunity soon enough if retaining any ability. He’s ran well over this CD before and while he has stamina to prove (like most in here) he’s shaped a few times as if he’s got a race in him over this trip and he’s never ran over 24f in a C4. He’s a prominent racer, or shouldn’t be held up out the back, and I thought he could give the fav most to think about.

Of the rest… well Vendredi Trios keeps going up in the handicap without winning, he’s 10 and he’s usually held up last. At 3s he can beat me, which given his consistent form he may do. But, he’s too short for me in this!

As is Air De Rock, as he has stamina to prove also and the yard are 0/24,2p in the last 30 days. He could be handicapped up to the hilt also.

Well Smitten runs for Amy, and Really Super was meant to be running today but sadly she ‘went stiff behind’ after some work, which happens plenty in fillies. Cramping up essentially. She’s had some meds etc and is fine, but today came too soon. Anyway, her chaser here is interesting to a point, esp on that Hunt win but he hasn’t gone on from that. He’s got a few questions now inc stamina (but an unknown and could now improve for it) and he needs to do more than LTO. They try a hood today.

That leaves Craigmor and not even I think he’s overpriced at 6/4! Can. You. Believe. It. 🙂 Obviously he’ll now bolt up like a 1/2 shot but I wasn’t sure as to the strength of his form- well I thought if RF ran to his best off this mark, and stayed, his level of form is stronger – but he does look progressive and I doubt this mark will beat him. He does have stamina to prove albeit I think he will stay fine, but a question. His two chase wins were in weak enough C4 handicap novice chases. Given his form and profile he is the right fav but on this occasion he’s one I want to take on. We shall see if a) i’ve got that right and b) whether i’ve picked the right one to do it with.

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Monbeg Gold…

Well sadly he didn’t jump very well which was a slight surprise. It’s the worst he’s been and i didn’t expect him to be held up near the back. So, those short priced eyes didn’t work on this occasion and some of you seemed to be very upset at the selection, handily telling me post race after he’d lost. If you don’t like a pick or have issues with my approach, or something i’ve missed, or maybe not considered, I do prefer to have the discussion before the horse has ran. I don’t plan to make a habit of backing horses that short but to my eyes pre race he was value etc.

Horses sent off 3/1< win 29% of 3m+ handicap chases, or have done in recent years, and Favs around 26%. In general my approach is whether to take them on, or leave the race, and that’s one of the trickiest judgements to make in this game I think, esp when you don’t have an EW approach like me. I don’t like blanket rules of not betting below price X etc when tipping, but clearly it’s hard to make it pay at that top end. Anyway, I was happy with the pick pre race. Onwards.

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

Nothing from Nick today.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning hurdlers

2.15 MR – Istimaar 

Trainers to follow 

4.00 MR – The Sweeney (14/1<) 

Jockeys/chasers

5.20 Strat- Goodnightsweetheart (9/1< best) 

LTO winning trainers

5.45 MR – Lamh Ar Lamh 

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best) 

4.10 Strat – Cillians Well 

4.35 MR – Thahab Ifraj 

5.10 MR – Craigmor 

 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

39 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Nowt as queer as folk! I got that race wrong also, so, should I be chastised also? I don’t think we should dwell on it. It was the only decent 3m chase of the day and the day before was a winner? I’m happy enough… It’s always hard picking winners and I don’t think the subs are that bad for what we get…

    Stewart 18/05/19 10:42 PM Reply


    • We’re all free to get a race wrong Stewart, and I frequently do, but I’m not tipping on a paid for site. I’m sorry if you disagree, thanks for all your good analysis, All the best.

      Mark Curtis 18/05/19 10:53 PM Reply


      • FFs mark what is your problem? Surely it isn’t as simple that I’ve tipped up a short priced loser? Give it a rest. Every individual is free to make a judgement on their experience against fees and thats for me to deal with. If you are that hacked off please message me in private. Not that I care for getting a public dressing down . I probably deserve it.

        Josh 18/05/19 11:06 PM Reply


        • Josh, you are just being petulant now and that is enough. I was communicating with Stewart, not you. Wind it down, forget it, I won’t be posting again so all good.

          Mark Curtis 18/05/19 11:08 PM Reply


          • Yea I’ve no words for this nonsense. You appear to have changed character in the space of an evening. Best of luck in the future. Josh

            Josh 19/05/19 12:09 AM Reply


  • Haven’t been reading the comments the last few days. while counting my winnings on Norway finishing 5th in Eurovision (enough for a kebab). I thought I would catch up.
    Did world war 3 just break out on here. Didn’t think things are that bad. It saddens me……

    warren Bottomley 19/05/19 12:18 AM Reply


  • I did think we were all adults, this game is called gambling not winning no one is forced to make a bet it is your decision to follow or disregard any information given. I pay my subs for the knowledge i gleam from the blog from many contributors and i thank them for their time. I think it was Tim Hanson who tipped a horse the other day (cool spirit i think) i had also read somewhere else it had a good ew chance so i looked at the race and decided to back it and it duly won @ 10-1 that was my choice, today i read Martins comments that he thought Yorkhill was overpriced i looked at the race and decided he had a good point and backed it, it lost, that was my choice.
    Horse racing is all about opinions if you don’t like their opinion ignore it if you do consider using it, at the end of the day it’s your money to do with as you like so take responsibility for your own actions.

    Martin Whittle 19/05/19 1:34 AM Reply


    • Head up Josh, you still have lots of followers out here, and as the saying goes “you can’t please all of the people all of the time”. As many have pointed out nobody is forcing members to back anyone else’s selections. Personally I never back under 2/1 but that’s my choice. I think I can also survive without George and Mark’s laddish banter.

      johnnybetts 19/05/19 9:59 AM Reply


  • I think this site is best racing site about and good value for fee charged. I also backed same horse, made mistake jockey unseated bet lost no problem move on
    Called gambling

    willie04 19/05/19 7:56 AM Reply


  • Seems everyone is feeling the pressure! For me what I really like about this site is that it is a lot more than just a tipping site. I also personally like Josh’s genuineness in a landscape of more than a few chancers when it comes to paid for tipsters.
    I’d also like to add I really miss the SBC and I actually think it was one of the best things on the site. Bringing knowledgeable punters together in the same realm and making something even better is a large part of what this site should be about.
    Let’s not forget it’s the bookie who’s are enemy!
    Just a final thought to say I appreciate everyone who takes the time to post in here whether it’s winners or losers ( though I appreciate the winners more! ).

    zico10 19/05/19 7:59 AM Reply


  • As far as I’m aware I didn’t join up to a tipping site. This is the best racing website online for me where contribution from many members is second to none. So many people putting their thoughts across , some people like to put tips up or systems, great! I get from time to time a couple may come to blows but it’s not good to see when really we all only have one enemy and that’s the bookies. The main reason I signed up is because of all the stats Josh works hard for getting together for each jumps season. It really helps when trying to come to decisions on which horses to pick in whatever race you’re looking at. I didn’t sign up for tips but obviously with the likes of the two Martin’s, Colin, Nick, Tim, Stewart and everyone else I have missed putting up their fancies each day I’d be mad not to cross reference them and put them against my own thoughts to come up with selections. So thank you from me to all who contribute, you included Mark. It really does make this the best out there. Josh, keep up the good work on then 3m+ chases 🙂

    stanmellor 19/05/19 8:20 AM Reply


    • spot on Stan.

      Martin Whittle 19/05/19 8:56 AM Reply


  • Tough day yesterday over here. Couldn’t get online cos of wifi problems and when I did using my phone it wouldn’t allow me to access Betfair. Be warned if you decide to visit the Canary Islands. Logging on to gambling sites WILL require a VPN connection. Doesn’t mean that you have necessarily have to pay for it. I switched over to Opera browser once I’d sorted the wifi out and loaded the free VPN extension up. Choose Asia from the drop down location box and away you go. 😉 I’m far too tight to pay for anything. Besides I’ve got my reputation to think about.

    Apologise to anyone that was waiting for tips but was a tough day here for me. Everything’s cool now and I’m all set up and organised. Was a tough day on here yesterday too by all accounts. My sympathies go out to all that ‘tip’ I never realised how tough it was to do, day in day out till I tried it. I’m still wrestling with the problem of which ones to give out when you have to make the final cut before posting ’em. Finding that ‘sweet spot’ of price versus frequency (of winners), can be more work than finding the bets in the first place.

    Anyway…. I hope Mark stays with us as I find his posts of interest with or without George, but he is a big boy and can come to his own decision.

    Tim Hanson 19/05/19 8:44 AM Reply


    • I’ll be back about 1.00 with today’s offerings, if I still dare to post. In the mean time I must thank Steve, my most ardent supporter, for keeping the faith through the dodgy times.

      Tim Hanson 19/05/19 9:00 AM Reply


      • If it’s any help Tim, I have been posting system selections every day for over a year on another forum. My systems are all on Horseracebase.

        I find the best performers have the fewest filters, over fitting to the data is so easy to do.

        Systems rarely match their past strike rate in my experience, most achieve between half and three quarters. I therefore look for at least 20% past strike rate and hope to get 15%.

        chrisiwyg 19/05/19 9:19 AM Reply


      • Tim, when I’m in the canaries I find the problem is getting on the sites via the apps or WiFi. If you’re on a regular browser using 3G or 4G it’s fine.

        steveindisguise 19/05/19 9:20 AM Reply


        • I really need the wifi for the laptop, although I could have tethered it to the phone I guess. I got caught out because every time we’ve been in Spain this past 10 years I’ve just connected the laptop to the hotel wifi and it’s been business as usual. No problemo…. as they say in Spain 😉 Not being able to access the wifi until after lunch time didn’t help either, but the girl on the reception desk did her best given the circumstances and you can’t ask for more than that. My phone is 3G and when I tried to access Betfair using the betting app it flunked out with the ‘you are attempting to access Betfair from a country where it is illegal to do so’ message, so I’m not sure about that as I tried using my partners 4g and that was turned down as well.

          One of the guests here says that he read an article saying that the Spanish have tightened up on access to gambling sites as part of a general campaign against non desirable internet activities. Either way… load up Opera as a back up if you are planning to come here.

          Tim Hanson 19/05/19 9:41 AM Reply


          • When I’ve been abroad I find I can get on via the bookies websites while using a VPN but can’t get on via their app. The conclusion I came to is the apps use the phone GPS to double check your location, rather than just by going off where your IP address shows you to be and the app refuses to work without a working GPS signal. Last time I was away I tried to load up Betfair and each time I tried to log in it redirected me to the app. I ended up having to delete the app so I could use the website until I returned home.

            jamiem 19/05/19 10:26 AM Reply


  • Ripon Ramblings.
    stuck on the subs bench today due to a stinking cold as it wouldn’t be wise visiting a 87 and 88 year old with my germs so have had a quick look through card at Ripon.
    NOT tips just thoughts.
    2-35. could be the day Tizwotitiz loses his maiden tag if he can build on a good run lto, i don’t know what it is about Separable but i’m drawn to it like a moth to flame has done complete pants on all 4 starts so far but i just have that feeling there is more to come and perhaps first time cheekpieces can do the trick.
    3-10. Seanjohnsilver upped his game on turf lto and should go very close here.
    3-45. Sameem won nicely on season debut, highly tried lto and could be too good for these dropped back in class.
    4-20. interesting that Cam Hardie is on Anythingtoday 18-1 instead of Fayez 8-1 and in a close looking race might be worth considering.
    4-55. I do like Excellent Times 7-1 in this not up to last seasons form lto but should be better for the run.

    Martin Whittle 19/05/19 9:37 AM Reply


    • off back to bed after dosing myself up, might have a couple of selections later if i surface in time.

      Martin Whittle 19/05/19 9:40 AM Reply


  • I missed most of yesterday’s discussions, due to a family trip to the zoo of all places, but the uproar about Josh picking a 15/8 shot as a “tip” (awful word, I hate it) is just ridiculous.

    Josh saw it as a 4/6 shot.
    15/8 is 2.8 times 4/6

    Akin to putting up a 10/1 runner at 28/1 : would that be value?

    In the end, the horse lost, but pre-race he seemed the standout bet in the race to me and based on his price, lots agreed with that.

    traf69 19/05/19 9:44 AM Reply


    • Hundred percent agree fella. I backed Hurricane Fly once when he was 8/11 and in my eyes he should have been fours on. He won but that was not the point, all about the value. It’s hard enough picking winners as it is but if you get value you are at least giving yourself half a chance of breaking even!

      dougandnicky 19/05/19 9:57 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    6.00 Ripon Qaaraat BOG 11/4 backed it last time and should have won the trainer has put a 5lb claimer in the plate today so should recoup losses.
    ELITE BETS
    5.20 Stratford The Kings Baby BOG 3/1
    NEW METHOD
    4.35 M/R Ballyvic Boru BOG 7/2
    5.20 Stratford Mrs Burbidge BOG 3/1
    6.00 Ripon Qaaraat BOG 11/4
    Colin

    cleafe 19/05/19 10:04 AM Reply


    • Another nice elite winner, many thanks

      Edward Crisp 20/05/19 1:10 AM Reply


  • Horse race advisor what a hard job, when going well wonderful start on a losing run well will not put into print what i have been called years ago.
    Gave a three month trial won mega profits plenty of people subscribed had another two winning months so a total of five winning months they made very good profit then the sixth month a loss still amazed to this day most pulled the plug on their monthly subscriptions and through a blip about six had access to my private phone line not nice.
    Confidence starts to waver and you try harder looking for more negatives and not taking a risk which you would have done on the winning run and i am guilty of this.
    Colins bets having a torrid time this year and i have missed a 50/1 and 25/1 winner
    Josh has had a torrid time also and trying to get back on track started putting up Best Of The Stats which started well and then started losing we all try at times to hard.
    Nick another who is on a torrid run possible the first time that he has experienced this since he started putting up his bets on RTP.
    It does effect you for myself it is bad enough losing on Colins bets but i always think of other people losing because they follow my bets, and that hurts.
    Criticism is easy to give mainly it is the wallet or purse doing the talking.
    Colin

    cleafe 19/05/19 11:02 AM Reply


  • Mark Curtis
    Hope that you read this for am a little surprised that you are not happy over a 15/8 bet, first of all Josh very rarely advises one this short and secondly you do not have to back it for it is only a advise.
    Going back and reading your posts again is there another agenda for will quote,
    I’m not tipping on a paid for site.
    If you and George have vision of marketing your advises then you will probably find it difficult for the volume of bets, doubt many would subscribe with the amount after a 2/3 month trial.
    Sit down and think long and hard over a couple of days and come back on board, for i for one will miss your input and remember part of RTP is a Forum which many enjoy.
    Cheers
    Colin.

    cleafe 19/05/19 11:19 AM Reply


    • Hi Colin, thanks for your advice. Rest assured there is no way George or I would ever dream we were up to tipping professionally, we are simply not good enough. It’s just for fun with us. Good luck with your venture though, you definitely are good enough.

      Mark Curtis 19/05/19 11:36 AM Reply


      • Mark
        Do not put yourself down most of the alleged professional tipsters are dubious would rather trust a second hand car salesman from the old days.
        Record your bets time and winning horse price and any rule 4 if i have four losers record them as – 4 points the winning name is the most important.
        You may surprise yourself if you keep proper records, my son did me spreadsheets which i use again, so will try and sell my info again which did not really want to do, but the bookies have pushed me into the corner so if they will not accept bets from me, then will pass my info onto others to beat the accountants.
        Colin.

        cleafe 19/05/19 1:21 PM Reply


      • Mark, big compliment to Ducketts Grove, you put up at Chelmsford a few weeks ago. Just watched Great Example canter in at Ripon

        Edward Crisp 20/05/19 1:38 AM Reply


  • Well I put the paintbrush down for 5 mins and have spent the last hour catching up with Racing To Profit world war 3, I’m beginning to wonder if there is something wrong with me, Why didn’t I back a 15/8 shot, was the form horse in the race but I don’t back 15/8 shots whoever puts them up, come on Mark it’s a shame the SBC has ceased, did make me chuckle daily, are the men in white coats still after GB or has he made it to pastures new?
    Well I will put up my E/W lucky 15 for today as why should I suffer alone.
    Market Rasen 2.15 Mythical Prince 10/1.
    Market Rasen 4.00 Black Kalanisi 13/2
    Market Rasen 5.45 American Life 9/2
    Stratford 4.45 Pahaska 10/1.

    Good Luck Everyone, back to the painting, things we do to keep err in doors happy

    Greg Phillips 19/05/19 11:53 AM Reply


    • Hi Greg, yes I like Black Kalanisi too. GB is packing to go to France for 6 months, he’s fine. Still working on his fifty million systems 🙂

      Mark Curtis 19/05/19 12:00 PM Reply


    • Shockers I’ll Stick to the decorating next weekend.

      Greg Phillips 19/05/19 8:10 PM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Market Rasen.
    2-15. Haasab 10-1 1/2 pt ew
    Ripon.
    4-55. Excellent Times 5-1 1pt win
    6-00. Musharrif 10-1 1/2 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 19/05/19 12:59 PM Reply


    • staked 3 pts, returns 5.5 pts , up 2.5 pts

      Martin Whittle 19/05/19 6:42 PM Reply


      • Musharrif won very nice mate

        Ryan Mercer 19/05/19 8:49 PM Reply


      • brain dead tonight cocked this up as well should be.
        staked 3 pts returns 7 pts, up 4 pts

        Martin Whittle 19/05/19 9:47 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 5.45 – Chasing Headlights on 7th run @ 7
    S 5.20 – Silent Steps on 1st run @ 7
    N 3.15 – Gossamer Wings on 3rd run @ 5/2
    3m+
    M 5.10 – Vendredi Trois on 6th run @ 9/2
    GL

    Titus 19/05/19 1:26 PM Reply


  • Whatever happened to George anyway? Chubnut too?

    shaungannon87 19/05/19 2:33 PM Reply


  • Noticed that Dai Williams pulled his horses out again at Stratford has the clerk of the course been misleading the trainers over the going again!
    Will give him a call tomorrow to find out the reason, for looked on BHA and cannot find a reason why he pulled two runners out.
    Colin.

    cleafe 19/05/19 5:47 PM Reply


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