Members Daily Post: 18/05/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x2, My tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, London GC trainers / flat test

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Bangor

2.15  – Tommy The Rascal   (HcCh) 33/1 

2.50 –

Tidal Watch   (micro class and runs)  w1  w2 H1 I1 6/4 

Nayati   (HcH,m +dist) H3 11/1 S2

3.25 – Grove Silver   (HcCh) 16/1 S2A

4.35 – Armattiekan   (nov HcH) H1 I1 9/2 

 

Uttoxeter

7.20 – Aunty Ann   (HcCh,m age) H3 11/1 S2

7.50 –

Our Rockstar   (HcH)  w1  w2 H1 I3 7/2 

Midnight Aurora   (HcH,m TJC)  ES+ H3 I3 9/4 S3A#

8.50 – Grande Waltz   (nov HcH)  ES+  7/2 S3A

 

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FLAT

Newbury

5.25 – Wahash   (m runs) 11/1 

 

Newmarket

None

 

Thirsk

2.45 –

Mutaffarid   (4yo+,m class) 22/1 

Excessable   (m dist) I1 H3 11/1  S6

Latham   (4yo+,m class and age) 10/1 

3.55 –

Jawwaal   (m TJC) G3 I3 4/1 

The Armed Man   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 10/1 

4.30 – Byrons Choice   (m TJC)  w1  w2 H3 I3  8/1 

6.10 – Patrick   (4yo+,m dist) I3 14/1 

 

Doncaster

5.30 –

War Brigade   (m dist)  w1 H1 G3 4/1 

Jawshan   (m dist) 14/1 

7.05 –

Lady of Shalott   (all Hc’s)  ES+ I1 11/2 S3A

Black Lotus   (all Hc’s) H3 G3  5/2 

8.05 –

Zeyzoun   (all Hc’s) 12/1 

Mostahel   (m age) 50/1 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 10/60, 19p +13)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/17,8p, +7.25)

Daily Tips 

7.20 Uttox – Monbeg Gold  – 1 point win – 15/8 (SB/WH/BV/Uni) 7/4 (others) UR 

that will be all for my daily tips, 09.12, write up…

At long last my ‘daily tipping’ eyes, in 3m+ handicap chases, appear to be working again. The daily tips are now +28 since 22nd Feb when scrapping my attempt to be a jack of all trades and master of none, and return to the races I enjoy analysing most. So, something to build on but much work to do in what has generally been a woeful period on multiple fronts.

Monbeg Gold – a ‘shorty’ today and i’ll see if it pays off but I wouldn’t have been shocked to see him at 4/6 in this (a 60% chance of winning) which would have been about right on my analysis. So, to get 7/4, 15/8… well I was happy to wade in. He’s got a far greater chance than 36% or so in this.  The only chance the others have in my view is if he doesn’t complete for some reason. In a chase like this that’s always a risk – a fall (albeit a very sound jumper) or BD, or he goes wrong etc. The other neg would be if they’ve over-watered, they get some showers and it turns it soft. His facile win LTO was a career best on RPR and indicates he’ still well handicapped. He’s gone close of this mark before in conditions that were far from ideal and 12lb wouldn’t have stopped him LTO. While that race fell apart somewhat the second was a solid yardstick. He may have needed the run a tad but has since won the ‘national’ at Fakenham – a tad fortuitous maybe but the front two were miles clear. This horse has clearly had his issues but they seem to be getting a good run at him now and he may well come on for that win also. He’s still unexposed over fences in these conditions and Jonjo will be hoping to add to his win in this race last year. He’s got a fair bit of pace to sit behind here and if he can just pop away, he will be in the right spot to pounce.

As a horse he makes his own case but it’s strengthened by the lack of depth in the opposition to my eyes. Maybe he will fluff his lines but i’ll more than live with not being on anything else in this. They all have a few too many questions for me and the selection is the classiest horse in the race and the only one who could be/is better than this level. I’ve reasons why I don’t like the rest which I won’t go into today. I do think this is all about the selection and whether he runs his race.

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Flat TEST 

(Flat TEST 4/17,8p, +7.25)

3.00 Newb – Solid Stone – 1 point win – 9/2

I’ve decided to use the trainer pointers below for this one and i’ve landed on the fav! I think 9/2 could still look very good come 3.05 in this and i’ve a feeling this horse could just be a very smart individual in the making. The trainer doesn’t tilt at windmills in this and last won it with Cannock Chase (same owner I think) He’d go on to reach an OR of 116. This horse’s breeding suggests he could be a group horse in the making and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up in the US at some point either, given the American blood.(a Breeders Cup race maybe) Stoute is renowned for bringing these types along slowly and i suspect he left a bit to work on LTO. In any case this horse should appreciate this stronger pace. We ‘could’ see a decent performance here and I’ll side with him. It’s a race that has often worked out very well and you need more than a handicapper to win it. 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

5.25 Newb – Robin of Navan – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) (1/5 4p many) UP -2 

8.05 Donc – Airshow – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen) (1/5 5p PP 8s, 15/2 SB) UP -2 

that’s all for today, 09.20 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

7.50 U – Lady Markby (14/1<) 

Jockey/Chasers

2.15 B – Cruising Bye 

7.20 U – Irish Octave

LTO winning hurdlers

2.50 B – Tidal Watch 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

3.25 B – Lord County 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

No Flat Big race trends this Saturday. 

Some trainer pointers for The London Gold Cup,(3pm Newb) which if you’re into the flat and tracking horses, is usually a race to follow. This can/has throw up some listed/group OR 110+ horses of the future…

Trainers (prev winners with runners in race) 

Solid Stone (Stoute… 3/13, 10p) 

Headman (Charlton: 3/6, 4p) 

Good Birthday (Balding: 1/10,2p) 

Mackaar (Varian: 1/3,1p) 

Majestic Dawn (P Cole: 2/8,2p) 

Sky Defender / The Trader (Johnston: 3/21,8p) 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

39 Responses

  1. 2.45 Thirsk – Excessable EW 11/1 gen, 12/1 B365
    17 runners, easy peasy hcp.
    Looking through the last 10 runnings of this race all winners were rated 76-84, that little stat alone reduces the field to the top 7 in the weights.
    Normally i’d also favour high drawn here too but between the top 7 horses they are drawn 1,2,3,5,6,8,11.
    Pace is low too Jabbarockie, stall 6, so it appears historically the horses with the better chance of winning are drawn close together.
    The selection really does have an awkward draw in 1 but with the pace low I’m hoping it’ll overcome this inconvenience 🙂
    There are plenty of horses in this who on their last win are well handicapped and Excessable still appears to be 1lb higher than its last win in comparison.
    However looking its form I’m more than encouraged.
    May 17 5f Cl4 win off 78, cl3 win off 83
    July 17 5f cl3 win off 87
    Hcp raised and didn’t drop until July 18
    2nd cl4 OR78
    1st cl3 OR78
    Hcp raised again until now it’s dropped back into the 70s.OR79
    Barring its draw I fancy it!.

    1. Just finished watching the golf so flicked through the 3.55 Thirsk.
      If it can replicate its run from last season over 6f gf then Brian the Snail EW 20/1 must go close. Since its win last year its been campaigned in cl2 races or over 7f and 8f. This is a cl3 sprinter and tomorrow it has its conditions.
      Musicka & Pipers Note are the other confirmed cl3 sprinters in this too.
      If Thirsk received more than its fair share of rain Hyperfocus would enter calculations too. But only if plenty of rain to add the word soft to the going.

      1. Very happy with that.
        Couldn’t let Musicka go off w/o a penny on.
        Brian the Snail appears to have been drawn on the wrong side but hey ho.
        Hyperfocus backed from 50/1 into 16/1 too so my eyes were correct on his ability.
        Excessable paid e/w too.

  2. Saturday picks:

    One from left field to start, 4.00 Auteuil, Yorkhill, 1 point each way. I am on at 66/1 and you can get it as at now on Bet365. He may be a nutter but at his best he could pick this lot up and carry them. Worth a stab at this price.
    3.00 Newbury, Good Birthday, 1 point each way at 8/1. An unexposed type who showed signs of greenness last time out but still won a class 3 well enough. He has only had 4 runs in his life, winning his last two. He still has plenty of improvement to come and can go forward here. Andrew Balding puts up SDS and so is not here just for the run.
    4.50 Lavender’s Blue, 2 points win at 6/1. I am on this one for The Oaks at 25/1 and think that she will go well here on only her second ever run. She won well on her debut and needs the experience here before going on to The Oaks. Amanda Perrett knows how to train young fillies and will have this one ready to go.

    Good luck.

  3. a shed load of racing today but with nothing taking my fancy at Newbury or Newmarket i’ve concentrated on Thirsk and Bangor.
    Thirsk.
    2-45. Excessable 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-20. Tadaawol 7-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-55. Pipers Note 22-1, back to last winning mark and class of last 2 wins, competitive race but looks great value at price 1 pt ew
    5-40. Royal Connoisseur 1/4 pt ew, just in case of a return to form.
    Bangor.
    2-15. Cruising Bye 6-1 1/2 pt ew
    4-35. Armattiekan 6-1 1/2 pt ew

  4. So, after taking some of peoples advice, am now sticking to certain areas of the flat and when i can put maximum effort in etc.
    So, unusually there are quite a few qualifying races today, hope to emulate some of the better flat tipsters on here and i think the 3 winners the other week was a fluke as, been unable to hit a barn door with a football from 5 paces since then!
    15:00 Newbury
    SOLID STONE 2pt win 9/2 gen
    Unfortunately I can see the price really shrinking on this and unless it gets shorter than 10/3 I would still punt on! Every box ticked, speed,pace,jockey,trainer etc etc..
    FOREST OF DEAN 1pt win 6/1 gen
    If the price of the front one shrinks, so, this one will drift, in my book should be second favourite and if anyone knows how to come and spoil a party it`s Frankie, speed in the bag also and recent form is good.
    15:15 Newmarket
    LUXOR 1pt win 13/2 gen
    This one has speed in abundance and on this quicker ground should really enjoy being up with the pace, think it`s a bit funny they came here instead of going to Newbury, where he has already won, which peaked my interest.
    DON ARMADO 1pt win 25/1 gen
    this is another who has bags of speed and at 25/1 (although i think there is a non runner now….shock i hear you say…so, 20/1 is still value), thought this was a big price for one with such pace and speed abundance!
    15:40 Newbury
    LORD GLITTERS 1pt win 13/2 gen
    I had a long look at LAURENS and if she is on song then it`s good night Vienna, but, if she isn`t then LG should clear up at the prices and with the trainer being really bullish i will take a chance!
    WITHOUT PAROLE 1pt win 11/1 gen
    Frankie again I know I do have a soft spot for him, but, i always think the bookies forget about him at these big meetings, you can definitely find some value when he`s on board one and this one also has the pace and speed to maybe nick this from one of the more obvious ones.
    17:25 Newbury
    BREDEN 1pt win 11/1 gen
    has course form with decent times posted and at the odds is value, should race up with the pace and hopefully when the button is pressed he will fly!
    HORS DE COMBAT 1pt win 16/1 gen
    cheekpieces have been added to this one today to sharpen him up, has bags of ability and if the c/p`s work you may see a difficult, but, talented horse romp away with this. 16/1 is value.

    hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    1. Josh is going to hate me for this, but, with my NH glasses on I can`t help but go against him in the 19:20 at Uttoxeter. I may come away with egg on my face and i was really grateful for the winner yesterday, but, believe that both SOUPY SOUPS and ONE FORTY SEVEN are value against the favourite in that race. I can lay Valadom all day, think the fight has gone out of him, Kilcrea has far too much weight and is out of form as much of these are apart from the fav, he may romp home, but, will go value against him. Just a note on value, if the favourite does romp home that 15/8 will look massive as will 2/1 if he goes to that, in my book he is nearer 6/4 13/8 territory, but, at those odds that i calculate I want to take him on. Before anyone starts lambasting Josh for picking a favourite, if he`s priced it up like i have, then that is why the 15/8 is value!

      1. Value is in the eye of the beholder Stewart! 🙂 As per write up I thought he had at least a 60% chance in that, so should be 4/6, so I think 7/4 is value in that context. Clearly if i’ve got him wrong then something else will be taking this. If he runs his race, game over imo. But if he does’t, it becomes very open and I won’t fall off my seat if many of these then take it, they all have past efforts where you could make some sort of case. I think those two combined 0/11,1p in C3 handicaps prob put me off. In truth my assessment was whether I thought fav would run his race, which I think he will. If I just assumed he wouldn’t, then it does become interesting. On recent form Valadom is then the most solid going this way. I think he has the fight, he’s just a once paced slow boat now I think sadly, who needs an awful lot to fall right. But if fav capsizes he may be best placed but I didn’t think his price was generous.
        SS is interesting over this trip over fences, has to prove he stays it but did over hurdles and could unlock more. He has PU before after a break so maybe not the worst case but he was beat just a bit too far out for my comfort there, but I suppose my starting point is I generally hate a PU LTO in a 3m handicap chase. But everything has a price.
        best of luck!

    1. Ah good, glad you backed them! Hendos hurdler did it well enough come the line, hopefully you may have beat SP as he was fairly well backed. I thought the old boy Indian T had that race sewn up, but alas caught by younger legs after the last. Still, two winners when at the races is par, something to cheer and ensures not too much damage done usually! Hope Madness were good, they usually are.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    U 5.50 – Dovils Date on 6th run @ 11/2
    U 7.20 – Valadom on 2nd run @ 11/2
    Nb 4.50 – Star Terms on 4th run @ 8
    D 7.05 – Lady of Shalott on 2nd run @ 11/2
    D 8.05 – Kenny The Captain on 8th run (inc 2 x aw) @ 33
    Nv 1.55 – Aleef on 3rd run @ 4
    Festival
    U 7.20 – Kilcrea vale on 1st and 5th run @ 7
    Nb 3.40 – Billedon Brook on 3rd run @ 40
    Nm 5.35 – Movi In Time on 7th run @ 7
    T 3.55 – Hyperfocus on 3rd run @ 50
    GL

  6. COLINS BETS
    4.30 Thirsk Above The Rest BOG 8/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.45 Thirsk Jabbarockie BOG 5/1
    5.25 Newbury Salute The Soldier BOG 4/1
    7.05 Doncaster First Dance BOG 10/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.55 Thirsk Jawwaal BOG 4/1
    6.50 Uttoxeter Gentleman Moore BOG 11/1
    Colin

      1. Yes, good work Colin you often get overlooked on here but your selections have been great recently. Thanks.:-)

        1. Greatly appreciated Mark and look forward to your bets in the future.
          Elite is being trialed by two companies so hope to end up with an income through them again, may have to change the name for RTP but that is in the future.
          Colin.

      2. So do i Ken
        Possible have another 30 year old method of mine which have watched over the past couple of years and having backed them this month it is in profit + 27.483.
        Potential 10 bets today so having a look at them over draw and going before backing them.
        Colin.

        1. Aaargh! No more please. My bank can’t stand it and more stats to record 🙂 Only joking. Hope your trials go well.

  7. 1.50 Newbury….Those with the best speeds are Red Impression (38.34 mph), Konchek (38.34 mph), Junius Brutus (38.25 mph)
    …..Sunsprite (38.06 mph) and Spacetraveller (37.94 mph) may surprise.

    3.50 Newmkt. Difficult to see beyond Picture Frame at around 4/1 or 5/1 mark may be worth an each way punt as has the best pedigree…Favs are 53% but the market cannot make its mind up so will be interesting to see which horse wins that particular battle. An interesting runner is Blausee… the current rank outsider…according to the pedigree on the sires side the horse is an absolute speed merchant… and even on the dams side there is a fair amount of speed so will see how the horse runs..Falconidae, from the Hannon yard is the only horse with experienceclocking 36.17 mph in a C4 at Salisbury over 5f. The average is 37.27 mph so on that running is below average and the market around 7 or 8 to one reflects the chances…Raffle Prize is currently contesting fav with Daahyeh but the former has a better pedigree and would not be surprised if this eventually goes off fav. Enjoy the day

    1. My son had a placement last year with Pepsi in their computer department and after his final exams this week will be working for them till August when takes up his full time computer job with Cisco believe largest technology company in the World.

      His view of bookmakers web sites complete rubbish and that was his view from being a 12 year old 10 years ago, pay poor wages get low standard programmers etc, his starting salary is £38,000 plus an 8% bonus guess i am a proud dad.
      Colin.

  8. Come on Josh, pointing us to a 15/8 shot? We surely don’t need your expert race reading eye to point us at such bets on a competitive day’s racing, irrespective of the result Disappointing and not what I subscribe for.

    1. What?? Where has that come from?? You can post that pre race no problem of course. It’s a bit wrong to post that post result isn’t it? My reasoning is laid out in the write up, value isn’t about price as a black and white issue. Anyone can take issue with my reasoning as such, pre race, no problem . The winner and mine were upsides and mine didn’t jump. Deep down it was an error and I knew from watching his jumping that it was a bit ‘piano’ at a fence. So I got that wrong. That was an incorrect judgement and in hindsight
      By all means unsubscribe Mark. Enough have in the last 4 months and that’s for me to manage. My daily tips record in last few months is there for anyone to judge. I used to be a ‘they must be 8/1+’ range in 3m chases but I’ve tried to judge value better and in general I have. With that mindset I wouldn’t have found quite a few recent daily tips winners.

      You’ve made a cheap shot there Mark. Next time make it before the horse has run please. I’ll cope. And I’ll cope if, along with George (who won £100 on last two tipping comps) decides to unsubscribe. 🙂 It’s a tough game. I’m quite aware the last 6 months havent been up to standard.
      Josh

  9. I think that’s a little bit harsh. Value is the key and if a horse should be 4/6 on balance and goes off 5/2, that’s value. I backed the horse but saved on Soupy Soups so I get that wrong as well. Lolol

  10. There’s no need for a diva strop. You always say you are big enough to take polite criticism and that was polite. All I’m saying is I’m more than able to find my own short priced losers.

    1. I didn’t expect that from you Mark. Im going to gariously leave this conversation before we fall out and my business falls on its arse. I’d better not do a Tony Calvin 🙂

  11. Hmmm. I think you’re being a bit out of order here Mark. Josh has simply put up a horse he thought was value and it hasn’t paid off. Aren’t we all allowed to put up our fancies, irrelevant of price? Whether you follow his bets or not you either back them or you don’t at that price, he doesn’t force anyone to back them…I personally don’t. Let’s stop with the negativity can we.

  12. All good. I will not be renewing. There needs to be a touch less sycophancy on here and a greater awareness we are paying hard cash for something more than the great contributions from other paying members.

    BTW, you changed the tipping comp rules to ensure George’s MO could not win again, classy.

    Anyway thanks to all , cheerio.

    1. Oh come on. I knew that was the reason. Each to their own. He won £100 the last two comps and it s a tipping comp not a systems comp. He’s free to post up all his bets in the free posts. I was sad to see him leave the members club but his comments in free post are welcome anytime.
      You can crituqe me as much as you want but doing it post race / tip makes you look like as ass. I’m quite aware it’s been a shite 7 months and that’s on my head. I’m sorry you feel that way but there’s nothing I can do about that. Since I re focussed on my specialism the profits have been decent. Clawing back losses I know but this game isn’t easy.
      Please please never assume my motives or how much I try my hardest for the people that subscribe. If you want to back 30 system horses a day then so be it. Who am I to judge. There are many ways to win at this game. Nothing we did here forced your best pal to leave the members club and you can still chat as much as you want in the fee posts or if you email me I’ll put you in touch with each other. Ive really no idea where this sourness has come from. A sorry end. Happy punting. Josh x

      1. Thanks Josh but we are already in touch. There’s nothing sour in that I’m just done with the way this site draws the best from its subscribers and you just agonize over your own contribution.

        I know you work really hard, and appreciate all your endeavours.I’m

        All the best for your future punting success.

        1. In what planet would I not agonize over my own contribution given that’s the only benchmark I should expect people to judge their experience on. I really have no idea where this has come from. Im at a complete loss. A bit deeper than putting up a short priced loser I feel but any such judgement is fine in my book obviously. Blimey.

          1. Josh, honestly, if you cannot understand my point about you tipping 15/8 shots then there’s no hope. 14 months ago you were tipping 50/1 shots and we could row in or not. But why would “bettors of all abilities” want to row in with such a shortie? I’m truly not attacking you personally, just frustrated at what you’re doing to get back on track.

            I know you are a honourable guy in a dodgy business, no question you have integrity to spare. But if you don’t get my point it’s clear why this is no longer for me.

            All the best to all.

          2. The world has gone mad. I thought a 7/4 shout should be 4/6. It was value. At my best no one reads a 3+ handicap chase better than I do but alas I wasn’t at my best there. You could have waded in with such antagonism on any number of bets over the last 7 months. Value isn’t price. It’s not a black and white cut off. I got that one wrong. If it was too short for you then don’t out your money one. I really don’t get this line of argument at all . The 3 m chasers are back on track there is no desperation here. Thai is such an odd line of argument to take. You could have spat the dummy out at numerous points with the big race tips and loser after loser. Very confused.

  13. Ok chaps, bit of old age reason coming in here, I think I get your point here Mark. Backing odds which don’t cover EW is always a risk but if sage people recommend it then that helps with the reasoning, but it is up to us to place the bet in the end. This site is great at providing the different views to betting and that’s why I’m still here. Don’t go Mark, I for one value you. Don’t smart Josh, I for one value you too.

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