Members Daily Post: 17/05/19 (complete)

Aintree through the card / Flat test x2, Daily Tips x1, Nicks Tips x4, Section 1 (complete), test zone, York pointers, 3.35 York pointers…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Aintree

6.10 – Casablanca Mix   (micro distance) H3 I3 11/4 

6.40 – Haul Away   (m dist and age) I3 15/2 

8.20 – Follow The Bear   (m TJC) 9/2 

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FLAT

Newbury

2.10 – Embour   (m runs) H3 I3 G3 15/2 S4

 

Newmarket

None

 

York

3.35 – Big Kitten   (4yo+) 14,30 I3

 

Hamilton

7.00 –

Kingdom Brunel   (m class) H1 I3 11/4 

Al Ozzdi   (all Hc’s)  14/1 

8.35 –

Chookie Dunedin   (m runs) I3 16/1 

Mujassim   (m class) I3 6/1 

Global Spirit   (all Hc’s) H3 12/1 

 

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 9/59, 18p +7)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/15,8p, +9.25)

 

Daily Tips

7.45 Aintree – Minella Daddy – 1 point win – 7/1 (PP) 6/1 (gen)  WON 6/1>4/1

that’s all for my daily tips, as of 9am, write up…

In my head I thought he shouldn’t be bigger than 4s in this and I wouldn’t have been shocked to see him in as second fave around that price or even 7/2, so to see him at 6s was a nice surprise and makes him worth a go in this line up, win, lose or tailed off. Back in blinkers, a tongue tie and after 60 odd days off (with some sun on his back maybe) he bounced back to form LTO and won easily enough to my eyes at Haydock over a bit further. I’m not sure what he was beating but it was a decent enough performance on the figures and within Inform’s racecards that LTO figure is much better than all of these and is also his best run for quite some time. Plenty of Bowen’s hold their form when finding it as his record with LTO winners would suggest. It’s always been a solid 30% or so. MD is well handicapped still, even despite the rise. He’s some smart form in the book, especially at Ascot, where he’s won and gone close in better races than this on paper. It’s not impossible that run brings him on a tad also. Sean will be ultra aggressive on him. Like most horses in blinkers he doesn’t wear them to look good. He can be a ‘bit of a boy’ at times but LTO was the best he’s travelled for some time. If he can race up there (and I think he’s more class than Pipes, so could stay in front of him) and get his jumping going, he will just keep galloping and should be the one to pass at two out….

The Skelton Fav is clearly the likely one to pass him based on the market and I can see the case, but I wouldn’t want to take this price and i want to take him on. He may well hack up. This is clearly weaker than his run here at the GN meeting which was solid enough. However they do reach for CP and having watched that run back i’m not surprised. He was scrappy at a few of his fences but of more concern was when he came under pressure two out or so. He held his head a bit high and i’m not sure he looks the grittiest in a battle. Of course he may not need to battle, as he may just glide past, but if he’s in a fight with MD approaching the last, i’d fancy mine to turn him away. The CP may do the trick of course but the horse does also need to prove he can see this trip out strongly. I won’t be shocked if he won this by an easy 5, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he lost, so i’ll take him on. 

Whether i’ve done so with the right one, we shall see. We won on Pipes when he hacked up LTO and I don’t wish to follow him in again. This is a deeper race and deeper than the Vets race at Ascot imo. He does have to prove he can go LH and his jumping, under no pressure LTO, was indifferent at a couple of fences- this will be more of a test, although he go around Ascot just fine. This is a step up and maybe i’ve picked the wrong LTO winner to take on the Fav, but Bowen’s has more back class, that I think he may reproduce, and he’s a stronger stayer. 

Sizing Granite can beat me at 4s, no problem there. That he may well do but he’s 11 and connections are asking him to do something he’s yet to – namely win beyond 2m4f +. He hasn’t raced over this trip that many times and may now want it – but only because his legs have slowed and they just go the one pace. He’s not a big enough price for me, not that i’d be on if he was bigger. 

Kings Monarch is interesting but the fact he’s usually held up, has to prove his stamina (but may improve for it) and he steps up in class were enough to put me off at 8s. And the fact Jamie Moore is 0/33,4p at Aintree in recent years. The yard are going well after a very quiet winter and plenty of theirs are worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks/months. He is unexposed but does have to prove it from this handicap mark also. I was happy to take him on, but there should be more to come from him over fences at some point. I can leave Forever Field at 8s, i’m not sure that’s big enough given he’s fitness, wellbeing, stamina and class to prove. I’m not sure 8s is ever big enough for a horse returning 188 days after a PU when last seen, clearly suggesting a problem. 

So, Minella will do. Hopefully he’s leading late into this, before I see Skelton’s loom up. We shall see what happens there on in! 🙂

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Flat Test 

(2019: 4/17,8p, +7.25)

1.50 York – Lady Fanditha – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/BetfS/PP) 8/1 (gen)  UP

5.05 York – Fraser Island – 1 point win – 13/2 (gen)  UP

that’s all for this test, using my stats below as a ‘way in’. 09.33, write ups…

Lady Fanditha – as always with this 2019 flat test i’m using my stats content, mainly big meeting pointers etc, as the ‘way in’. I thought this Cox filly was worth a go here in the more than capable hands of Mr Mosse, who just oozes class in the saddle. LF won despite conditions LTO as connections think she’ll be much better on decent ground, which she gets here. She won that comfortably enough there, the front three clear, and the two behind have since won well on their next starts. Cox won this race in 2013 and I found it interesting that this race was mentioned after that Notts win as a the target. She was well backed on debut also and both those factors make me think she’s smart enough – certainly in the eyes of her trainer. And he’s enough good ones/experience to judge. She should come on a bundle for that run, with more experience and better ground. That was also a straight flat track, and in a 10 runner field. I was happy to roll the dice at 9s. I thought she may be better than the Johnston horse also mentioned below, and hopefully I haven’t picked the wrong one! Of course there’s likely to be something else in here of interest but i’m not tying myself up in form knots in a race like this. I’d best have a saver on Hugh’s pick in this also! 

Fraser Island – this one chased home a 96 rated stable mate LTO and he wasn’t exactly given a hard time by Joe Fanning. He looked a leggy sort and ran as if well worth a go at this trip. Johnston has won this twice in the last four years, once with SDS riding. In fact trainer/jockey are 2/5,4p in CD handicaps in the last 5 years, a few of those in this race. SDS should have the horse in the right spot as is his want, probably tracking his stablemate. I thought he may appreciate this long straight and there should be more to come. Like most from this yard they just seem to be tough. In part that’s how they train them, but they rarely shirk a scrap in the final furlongs. Beckett’s and Stoutes seem well fancied and both are unexposed, ‘could be anything’ types, but I’ll stick with the selection at 13/2, 7s.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

2.35 Newm – Sea Fox – 1 point EW – 10/1 (betfS/PP) 9/1 (gen) UP -2 

3.20 Newb – Horatio Star  – 1 point EW – 18/1 (SB/WH/BV/UNI) 

4.05 York – Starlight Romance – 1 point EW – 10/1 (gen) 2nd, nse, 11/1  +1.5 , +1.75 BOG 

5.30 Newb – Keepers Choice – 1 point EW – 14/1 (betfS/PP) 12/1 (WH) 11/1 (SB/BetF) 3rd, 8/1 SP +2 

that’s all from Nick today, as of 08.13 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers To Follow 

5.35 A – Silk Run

LTO winning trainers

7.45 A – Minella Daddy (8/1<)

8.20 A- Forecast

Jockeys/Chasers

7.45 A – Minella Daddy (9/1< best)

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

8.20 A – Ready And Able

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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York Dante Meeting Pointers/Notes: READ HERE>>>

York Dante Day 3 

Newmarket LTO (10/1< guide)

2.25 Y – Clerisy / Sunday Start

 

1.50

Companion / Lady Fanditha (C1 trainers) 

Companion 

2.25

Clerisy / Impulsion / Invitational/Magnetic Charm /Natalies Joy /Twist N Shake (C1 trainers) 

Twist N Shake 

3.00 

Mildenberger / Stradivarius (C1 trainers) 

Mildenberger / Stradivarius 

 

3.35

/

4.05

/

4.35

/

5.05

Fraser Island / Summer Moon / Rochester House 

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Big Race Stats/Trends

York Day 3

3.35 : 10f C2 Handicap

(10/150, 34p)

10/10 sent off 12/1< SP (bigger: 0/83, 10p)

10/10 had 0-10 runs in handicaps

  • 11+ : 0/69, 12p
  • 0-3: 8/37, 13p, +22

10/10 had 0-4 places (inc wins) in handicaps (5+: 0/71, 12p)

8/10 had won at least once last three (8/73, 19p,  2/77,15p did not)

Other

  • 4+ handicap wins: 0/30, 4p
  • 2/5 runners ran in a Maiden LTO
  • Ran within last 15 days: 0/35, 7p
  • 4/14 runners, ran in a 3YO Only handicap LTO

Track LTO

  • X2: Newb / Donc
  • X1: Notts/Newmarkt R/ Leic/Windsor/Epsom/Ascot
  • Thirsk: 0/13,0p

 

Trainers (prev winners with runners)

Uae Prince (Varian :1/2,1p)

Society Red  (Fahey: 2/20, 5p)

 

Stats Longlist

Both 10/10 stats above (exc odds)

Big Kitten / Lucius Tiberius / Abe Lincoln

 

No ‘shortlist’ or ‘trainers’ pointers for this one today. 

 

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Aintree ‘Through The Card’ 

5.35 – Stop Talking 

6.10 – Indian Temple 

6.40 – Never Been To Paris 

7.10 – Theatre Legend 

7.45 – Minella Daddy 

8.20- Follow The Bear / River Arrow 

8.50 – blimey! Mount Nelly EW ??

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, just a nudge to see if you would be able to run through the Aintree card tomorrow? Cheers

    1. thanks for the reminder, yep no problem, i’ll bolt it onto bottom of Section 4, once i’ve got York out the way and decided if I wish to get more serious with the 3m handicap chase.

  2. 17th May York and Newbury
    York 1.50pm 5f Marygate fillies Listed
    The Marygate is often full of small speedy precocious types who may well get stuffed by any better class fillies.
    I have 9 runners on 4.25 in this race, the first 8 in the betting plus Baileys in Bloom so it is not really a betting heat however the one runner I’ve seen in the flesh is Richard Hannon’s Separate, my comments are below. Tomorrow she has the added benefit of Frankie Dettori in the saddle and she is the highest rated filly I have seen. The fact that she started in a boys and girls race at a Grade 1 track also suggests that the Hannons like her. She was certainly not fully tuned for that run, she could ideally be drawn a tad lower but she has Ryan Moore next to her and I hope they jump well with Frankie and Separate bowling along prominently. Of those inside her Mighty Spirit and Lady Fanditha look a danger. The favourite Lady Kermit is drawn 16 which is tough.

    Previous comments from Newbury
    Separate – Well behaved strongly made filly. May well be aimed at the Salisbury Cl3 Fillies Conditions race on Sunday 28th and likely to win it. 82
    Separate was a different story, the strongest made, deep chest and powerful behind. I thought she would win despite looking slightly less fit than say Album or Isobar Wind, what put me off was the price as usually Hannon fto winners are under 8/1. What you can be certain of however, is that they will know what they are doing and this was certainly the case. She raced the most professionally of all the runners and was unlucky to catch something as special as Highland Chief. If she is typical of Cable Bay’s progeny then he should have plenty of winners.
    1pt E/W Separate

    Newbury 2.45pm 6f Maiden
    4.25 Baadirr, Golden Horde, Light Angel, Ziggle Pops
    3.75 Heaven Forfend, Indian Creek, Sir Oliver
    3.25 Gypsy Rocker, Swiss Bond
    Baadirr and Light Angel appear to have the best of the draw. I am going and hope to find that either Golden Horde or Ziggle Pops are ones to take them on with.
    Hugh

    1. Thanks for the analysis Hugh.

      Very interested in the York race as I’m lucky enough to have a very small stake in Great Dame. Everything went right for her at Chester and I have a feeling that it could be about as good as it gets with her. Today is a lot tougher and I would think that there would be something that will improve sufficiently to beat her. However her form is in book and she is a battler so I can’t understand why she is 16/1 when horses with more to prove are half the price. Anyway I would be absolutely delighted to finish in the first 3 and get some black type.

  3. 1.50 York, I did pick out Separate but Hugh beat me to the punch above. I will still go with it at 10/1, 1 point each way. No write up as Hugh has done that job.

    2.25 York, if Natalie’s Joy has trained on I think that she can win this. However at the prices I like El Gumryah at 16/1, 1 point each way. She stayed on well on the all weather LTO and looks to be an improver.

    3.35 York, Lucius Tiberius, 1 point each way at 9/1. Trainer in form and good course stats. Has run some good races at class 1 and 2 and looks value against the favourite UAE Prince, who struggles to win races.

    Good luck.

    1. Also like Lucius Tiberius, has some solid form: Ran in a French Grade 2 where plenty from race went on to Grade 1 then ran at Epsom and that form is working out well with the 2nd and 3rd finishing 1st and 3rd at Chester, the 4th winning at Chelmsford and 7th finishing 3rd in Grade 2 and 8th 3rd in a Listed race.

  4. nice little Irish Bonus last night 8.15 Clonmel – Skeaping @ 24.67 bfsp 🙂
    on to York, these are fun bets to small stakes.
    1-50. Separate 11-1 bfsb 4 places ( not very original looking above)
    2-25. El Gumryah 14-1 sky 4 places
    3-00. Stradivarius will probably win this but i’ve had a small ew on Mootasadir 20-1 just in case he can bring his AW form to turf
    3-35. i want to take on Uae Prince and Mistiroc’s 2nd at Donny 3 weeks ago looks the best recent form. 9-1 sky 4 places
    4-05. Agincourt 9-1 sky 5 places
    4-35. Roulston Scar 15-2 4 places
    5-05. too many question marks over most of these and will probably leave it alone.

    1. for ITV7
      Newmarket
      2-00. Redemptive 7-1
      2-35. Glen Coco 11-4
      Newbury.
      2-10. Embour 15-2

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Festival/BRT
    A 5.35 – Pink Legend on 2nd run @
    A 6.10 – Indian Temple on 1st run @
    Nm 4.45 – Dawaaleeb on 7th run @

  6. COLINS BETS
    5.15 Newmarket Major Valentine BOG 3/1
    7.30 Hamilton Theglasgowwarrior BOG 4/1
    Good winner yesterday 11/1 to 8/1
    ELITE BETS
    Newbury
    3.20 Consultant BOG 8/1
    4.55 Guildhall BOG 20/1
    5.30 Arctic Sea BOG 16/1
    3.10 Newmarket Perfect Illusion BOG 11/4
    5.35 Aintree Ratoue Yutty BOG 9/2
    8.35 Hamilton Black Salt BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    3.35 York Mistiroc BOG 9/1
    4.55 Newbury Kiefer BOG 9/1
    7.30 Hamilton Theglasgowwarrior BOG 4/1
    Colin

  7. 1.50 York…Just to add to Hugh’s write up in terms of speed allowing for course, distance and going differences…Lady Kermit 38.31 mph. Fleeting Princess 38.22 mph. Lady Fanitha 38.73 mph.. Companion 38.70..Lady Quick Step 38.15 mph…Mighty Spirit was 1 and 3/4 lengths behind Lady Kermit , having dwelt in the stalls so may improve. Good Vibes 37.96 mph. Separate 37.71 mph..hope this helps…..gd lck with whatever you are backing

    1. Cheers, slowly getting there with those. That’s +28 or so with the 3m chasers in daily since 22nd Feb when refocussing. Dragged the free tips G3 marathons from -18 to +3 in same time. So they are getting there. They should be a 80+ points a year specialism really, much work to do but I can read those horses /races well at my best, specialising does help and waiting for the bets to jump out etc. Onwards.

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