Members Daily Post: 16/05/19 (complete)

Daily Tip x1, Nicks Tips x2, Flat Test x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, York Day 2

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Salisbury / York / Newmarket

None.

*

 

JUMPS

Perth

3.45 – Katgary (all hncps) H3 I3 11/2 

 

Fontwell

None/hunter chase card. 

 

Irish Bonus 

7.05 Clon – The Big Lense (hncp h) 9/2 

8.15 Clon – Skeaping (hncp h) 10/1 S2

 

 

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 8/58, 17p +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 4/15,8p, +9.25)

Daily Tips

3.45 Perth – Katgary – 1 point win – 11/2 (gen) (20p R4 as of 08.45, 4.4/1, 11/2 Uni/888, 9/2 available Bet365/BV, 4s gen) WON 4.4/1>9/4 

as of 08.30, write up on the way….

This race is all about whether this one stays and at his price, especially given the oppo, I thought he was worth a go. If he stays (and jumps as he can) he will decimate this field and they wont see which way he’s gone.

He is the classiest horse in the race and the jockey takes off a useful 7lb, taking his mark down to 115. Even without the claim he’s chucked in here but that helps with lowering the actual weight he has to carry. His last win was here over fences, in June 2016, in a C3 off 129, over 20f. He jumped well there, travelled on the pace, and dotted up. He hit marks in the high 130s after that and oddly enough to my eyes has only ran in a chase over 20f+ once since then, and that was in a Listed handicap at Ayr. He’s a few solid runs since then, and arrives here in form. HIs last two runs have been solid, and against better opposition. They have both been over hurdles but LTO at Ayr he was surrounded by 120+ horses and it was a hands and heels race, won by the stablemate. The second there for Alan King as since dotted up, as has the horse just behind him. He was visibly outpaced but stayed on well all the way to the line. The trainer does well at the track, and with her C4 chasers in general. He drops into the weakest race he’s run in for years and he’s just much better than these.

With any luck they will ride him handy as when last winning here, he gets into a rhythm and it becomes clear up the straight that he’s been wanting to run over this trip for quite some time. It’s only the 13th handicap chase of his life and compared to some of these he’s very lightly raced. The blinkers return which he’s run well in and every time they have switched headgear in recent times he’s run well. He may not stay but that last run suggests he will, and he’s worth a go at the price.

Of the rest…

Halo Moon is the most interesting as he is well handicapped and he’s a lightly raced 11 yo for an inform team. He’s had a wind op and it needs to have worked. He’s usually held up but he’s the one I fear most but there were just a few too many questions for him. If he runs his race he’ll be chasing down mine.

Craiganboy is a NR and how he was ever put in at 3s here i’ve no idea, given he is a heavy ground slogger. I don’t think the rest look well handicapped. Grove Silver looks out of sorts and has stamina to prove. Orioninverness has only ever won at C5 and has stamina to prove. Elmono may run his race but i’m not sure as to the strength of his form and he’s got to prove it from this mark. I didn’t think he looked overpriced. Russell has been quiet for a time but had a winner yesterday. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran well but happy to leave at odds. Blue Kascade is 12, he will run his race but is open to attack from more sprightly opposition. Again I didn’t think 9/2 was that exciting.

Bafana Blue is in form, jumps and stays. He looked around the right price especially given that last time he raced over CD he was visibly outpaced and his form has come at the stamina test that is Hexham, and the long straight gallop at Wetherby. Mine should have too much pace for him, and the rest I think.

So, we shall see. Katgary is the only one I want to be with here.

 

*

 

Flat TEST

(4/15,8p, +9.25)

3.35 York

Beringer – 1 point win – 11/2/ (Uni) 5/1 (gen) 5th

Whats The Story – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen) WON 8/1>9/1 

that’s all for today’s flat ‘test’, 09.11

I’ve stuck with the top 5 in the weights here and we shall see if that trend upholds. Beringer is going the right way, there’s more to come and the yard are in flying form. On paper there’s a fair bit of pace in here. I hope they don’t hold him up right out the back but he’s a long straight to wind up. He shouldn’t be far away. And Neither should Whats The Story who ran well on return LTO and will appreciate conditions here. He has some decent big field form to his name in big races and looks sure to go well here, for yesterday’s winning sprint team. I’ve thrown in Plutonian at a big price to ‘my shortlist’ test below, but a niggle that on this ground it may all happen a bit too quick but I wouldn’t be shocked if he ran well, and at least placed.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

1.50 York – Justanotherbottle – 1 point EW – 12/1 (1/5,5p gen – Lad/BetfS/BV/Coral/BetF/Uni) UP -2

6.55 Newm – Blazing Saddles – 1 point EW – 14/1 (gen) UP -2

 

that’s all for today from Nick, as of 08.16

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

4.45 Perth – Little Stevie

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

4.15 Perth – Legal History

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

York Dante Meeting Pointers/Notes: READ HERE>>>

York Dante Day 2 

Newmarket LTO Micro (10/1< guide)

2.25 Y – Nyaleti

 

Trainer Pointers

(hitting various stats in the report above)

1.50

/

2.25

Lah Ti Dar / Mrs Sippy / Nyaleti / Rawdaa / Sun Maiden (C1 Trainers)

Lah Ti Dar

Nyaleti

3.00 

Almania / Nayef Road / Surfman / Too Darn Hot / Turgenev (C1 Trainers) 

Too Darn Hot

Nayef Road (12/1< guide)

3.35

Love Dreams (12/1< guide)

4.05

Semoum / Shades of Blue (C1 Trainers)

4.35

/

5.05

/

*

Big Race Stats /Trends

3.35 – Hambleton Handicap

10/144, 34p

9/10 sent off 12/1< SP. (1/72, 8p bigger)

9/10 carried 9-00- 9-4 (exc claims) (9/43, 15p, +38)

  • 9-5+ : 0/16, 2p (average 1.6 runners per year, x6 runners this year 9-5+ suggesting more higher rated runners than can be the case)
  • 8-13< : 1/85, 17p

9/10 top 5 in the weights  (9/56, 16p)

7/10 had yet to run at York

Other

  • 0-2 handicap runs: 0/29, 8p
    • 3-6 hncp runs: 6/28, 11p
  • Won LTO: 0/19,4p

Track LTO

  • Haydock: 3/16, 4p
  • Newb: 2/16, 5p
  • Ascot: 2/10,3p
  • X1: Newmarket (Row) , Sand, Kemp
  • Thirsk: 0/19, 3p
  • Donc: 0/13,2p

Trainers

  • Ledham (Stoute: 1/11,7p)
  • Plutonian ( C Hills: 1/1)

 

Flat Feature Race ‘test’, using stats/trends and longlist / trainers / my shortlist

Stats Longlist (5x races: 2/31,10p, -15)

Not really a great ‘trends’ race for my approach. Top 5 in the weights appears to be the main pointer, but of course there has been one lower weighted winner (clear bottom weight) in the last decade…

Beringer / Hortzadar / Plutonian T / Escobar / Whats The Story / Tricorn

From that list above only Hortzadar has had 0-2 handicap runs, and such inexperience hasn’t been a positive in the last 10 renewals, however the placed runners are fine so that may be broken at some stage.

 

Trainers (6x races: 2/13, 7p, +2) 

Plutonian

 

My Shortlist (5x races: 1/15,5p, -9) 

Beringer / Whats The Story / Plutonian

 

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

28 Responses

  1. Re. BOG bookies, I think I’m right in saying the following still offer BOG on evening before prices:
    365
    BV
    Boyle
    Coral
    Sky
    PP
    BFSB

    The rest vary from 00:01am to 10:00am on day of racing. Any others that we know of?

    1. Boyle, from midnight onwards, and not sure for others but for me PP and BFSB from 8am onwards on the day.

    2. PP and BFSB are now both after 8am on the morning of racing. AFAIK of the main bookies it’s only Bet365 and Skybet who offer it the evening before.

    3. Pretty sure BV do it. Coral definitely do, I had that confirmed yesterday and just found Unibet also do it, although you need to make sure it says BOG at the top of the racecard. Wonder how long it will be before they all remove it but still gives us a number of options in the meantime.

      1. You are lucky if you can get BOG online. I cannot. I have to go to a betting shop if I want BOG. Not the best way to spend a sunny morning.

        Good luck anyway.

  2. again no selections,
    a very good start yesterday petered out but i’ll have another go at the ITV7 races. just having £4 a race so £4 win or £2 ew
    Salisbury.
    2-10. Ideological win @ 8-1
    2-45. Galileo Silver win @ 9-2
    Perth.
    3-10. Kajaki win @ 15-8
    York.
    1-50. i like Foolad and Fendale but i’ve gone for Outrage ew @ 33-1, as long as he gets out the gates on terms could have a big chance at a big price.
    2-25. i’ll stick Lah Ti Dar in but i’m not having a bet
    3-00. Too Darn Hot is to darn short for me and i’ll have his stablemate at a massive price. Turgenev ew @ 66-1
    3-35. taking a chance this one comes back to form after some poor efforts, Waarif ew @ 14-1

    might be back in the morning with something

  3. I’ve tried to be polite about this but will the selfish bastards that keep going on Betfair and making the price crash have a word with yourselves and stop spoiling things for the rest of us.

    1. Are we taking night beforer’s here or early morninger’s?

      I thought that we decided it was best to wait until after 10 AM?

      The Matchbook market does not seem to get going until after 11 AM. I usually wait until lunch time to look for a price there.

      1. Yep, those who play on the machine only, i’d have thought waiting until later in the morning would be wise, but who knows. Not an exact science. Up to the individuals but snaffling of betfair prices early morning when no liquidity isn’t good for anyone.

      2. I don’t think we’ve ever agreed to do it at 10AM and certainly don’t plan on posting any later than 8:30-8:45AM for the time being unless its on a weekend or its a very big price in a low class race.

    2. Not saying its not the cause but there seems to be very little liquidity in betfair at all until 30 mins pre-race. Constantly seeing single amounts to back on favourites well in to the mornings. Its definitely not as it was back in its glory days since the commission charges i guess the pros/syndicates have gone elsewhere.

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    Y 1.50 – Dark Shot on 2nd and 5th run @ 11
    Festival
    Y 1.50 – Justanotherbottle on 5th run @ 12
    ………..Dark Shot on 7th run @ 11
    Y 3.35 – Escobar on 8th run @ 12
    ………..Tricorn on 3rd and 5th run @ 50
    ………..Whats The Story on 3rd and 4th run @ 8
    Y 5.05 – Northwest Frontier on 3rd run @ 20
    3m+
    P 3.45 – Halo Moon @ 8
    GL

  5. See Nick’s tip was timed at 8.16 went to try and get on at 8.59 all I could get was 7’s Wow someone must have been lumping on between those times. Perhaps Nick should revert to posting over night. We can then decide whether to back them then or wait for the morning. Not Nick’s fault at all just disappointing the lrice dropped so quickly.

    1. it’s tricky, I suppose if decided evening before we put up a non bog price, but the issue I think is this Betfair activity, whether it’s from us or not. Clearly others fancy him also, but the horse only had 400-500 on him , and 3500k of liquidity in the market, and people matching small amounts, and that’s all that’s needed to drive his price down on the machine at this time, and bookies follow betfair to ensure not being done by traders etc etc. If there was no betfair, that 14s would have stayed around for a while, or certainly 10s+, i’ve no doubt about that. X amount spread over various bookies at this time in the day wouldn’t have forced the price down like that. Those issues would have still had an impact the evening before, and he prob would have been gen 8s or something this morning.
      The aim is to try and post between 8-8.30 if we stick to morning.
      Josh

      1. That’s a much better time Josh .I try and use the shops as much as possible .I got 12/1 in the paddys shop .It was 14/1 when I was writing it out but it changed by the time I got to the counter You don’t get BOG at that time in paddys but at least we have half a chance .Im happy with 12s .Ive lost about 30 accounts doing the night before stuff in the last 10 years .I don’t touch my anonymous online ones until after 10am now .Ive learned the hard way in 10 years .cheers

  6. i don’t know why i carry on with these 5F sprints think it must be the fascination
    1.50 York i make a case for every horse i look into. Had 10 bob on Tommy Taylor with skybet money back 2nd/3rd. First time visor hit the front LTO at 6F, down to 5F today hopefully it runs same race but the line comes quicker. Not sure it works like that but

    1. It seems that Tommy Taylor finds it hard to win to me looking at his record. This race looks very competitive and so Tommy needs to step up I think. I did like Copper Knight each way but he too has the issue of not winning that much and the ground may have gone too firm for him? It does not look a race to get much involved in.

  7. COLINS BETS
    1.50 York Copper Knight BOG 11/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.10 Perth Copper Knight BOG 2/1
    NEW METHOD
    No bet
    Colin

  8. Oops, Colin, Copper Knight 1.50 at York quick dash up the A1 and on to Perth for the 3.10 I’ll have a double on that Ha Ha. Look forward to to winner of Perth 3.10 being sorted out later by you.

  9. ELITE BETS
    3.10 Perth Kajaki BOG 2/1

    Thanks Gordon in a rush for had to go out unable to blame the amount of bets for the slip up on such a quite day, mind you Tim Easterby is a dual purpose yard so you never know.
    Colin

  10. sure i posted this earlier.
    3 ew singles and a ew trixie on 3 c’s
    1-50. Copper Knight 10-1
    4-05. Charming Kid 22-1
    5-05. Champrarisi 12-1

    1. Haha, a rare across the codes double!! Nice to land one for the ‘test’ but more delighted with the 3m chaser obviously. The games going well when I’m reading 11/2 (4.4/1) shots as being value! Much work to do but I’m in a happier place with the 3 mile tipping , green shoots of recovery.

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