Members Daily Post: 15/05/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x4, Flat Test x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, York Day 1 Pointers…

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Newton Abbot

2.10 – Tamarillo Grove   (all Hc’s) 20/1 S2A WON 25/1 38.00 BFSP (they needed that) 

 

Perth

7.35 – Harleys Max   (all Hc’s) 40/1

8.05 – Ebony Rose   (all Hc’s) 22/1 S2A

 

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FLAT

Bath

5.25 –

Mrs Todd   (4yo+,micro going) 11/1

Amberine   (m dist)  ES+ I3 10/1 S3A

Sugar Plum Fairy   (4yo+,m going and age) 12/1

5.55 – Babyfact   (m dist)  9/1

7.55 – Butterfield   (4yo+,m going) 10/1

 

Yarmouth

3.10 – Birch Grove   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 7/2 S3A

4.15 – Glory Awaits   (all Hc’s)  ES+ G1 9/1 S3A S6  2nd, photo/painful. 

 

York

1.50 – Caliburn   (all Hc’s) 25/1

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 8/58, 17p +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 3/11,4p, +3.25)

Daily Tips

None, no 3m+ chases I wish to attack.

 

Flat Test 

(2019: 3/13,6p, +1.25) 

1.50 York – Fujaira Prince – 1 point win – 3/1 (gen)2nd, neck 

3.35 York – Frankellina – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) 2nd, blew start

Fujaira Prince… this ‘test’ is where i’m attempting to use my stats work for these ‘big meetings’ in section 4, to home in on the odd horse, with my eyes glancing towards non handicaps more, or, as with this one, hopefully a group horse in a handicap. That’s the sort of profile that’s done well in this recently and 3 of the last 6 winners have been sent off 5/2 or shorter. This one has a similar profile to Barsanti (trainer/jockey/owner), who’d hit a peak OR of 116. This horse dotted up on his return at Donny, pushed out really, and ran as if he would relish this extra yardage. His RPR was 101 there, suggesting his mark of 95 is still very workable. Connections hint that they think he could be smart and this trainer/jockey/owner do like plundering these handicap pots, as we saw again in the Victoria Cup at the weekend. There’s a slight niggle/unknown about the ground but i’ll trust connections as if he handles it, he does look the most interesting in here by some way, and could win this comfortably. He’s potentially the classiest horse of the future in this and i’ve no doubt he’s thrown in, just whether he shows it here. I’m not sure you can say that about many others in this. He is also well drawn for a prominent racer and should have no excuses on that front. 

Frankellina… It was a close one between this and Johnny Gs runner who may leave me red faced but I thought 5/2 was about right, especially given the fast ground. She didn’t seem to handle it that well LTO, with an awkward head carriage and her class got her through. Maybe I have that wrong. She had a 7lb penalty there but i’m not 100% convinced what she beat but they do think plenty of her (post-race quotes, I don’t have some inside line!). Gosden has won 5 of the last 10 renewals and I suspect these two may have it between them. Given Haggas won this race last year, her breeding and her Oaks entry, i’d like to think she’ll be tuned up for this. The trip looks sure to suit as does the fast ground, and she really could be anything. Everything points towards this one being potentially very smart, but there’s one way to find out. Beckett’s is interesting, but this time I’m sticking to a trainer who’s won the race recently.

So, those two will do for these test pokes, and i’ll see if my top of the market value eyes are working. I wouldn’t be shocked if both of those blew their oppo away, and look decent odds. Maybe 🙂

I’ll leave the 2.25 to braver souls than I.

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

2.25 York 

Savalas – 1 point EW – 25/1 (bet365/WH/BV/Betw/Boyle) (1/5,5 standard, SB 6 places) 4th  22/1 dec>20/1 SP , +3.4 

Double Up – 1 point EW – 40/1 (gen) UP , -2

3.10 Yarmouth

Voi – 1 point EW – 6/1 (bet365/BV) 11/2 (gen) WON 11/2>4/1 (15p R4) +5.61 

4.25 Newton A 

Press Gang – 1 point EW – 12/1 (gen) UP -2

1/4, 2p, +5.01 

 

that’s all for today, 08.12 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU LTO

3.20 NA – Great Tempo

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Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

LTO winning trainers

7.35 Perth – The Boola Bee (12/1< guide)

8.05 Perth – Farmer Boy (12/1< guide)

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

7.35 Perth – The Boola Bee

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Adam Norman’s LBB 

3.20 NA – Pleney (Long term/guide)

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

YORK DANTE Day 1

1.50 – Jorvik Handicap

10/125, 31p

10/10 aged 4 or 5 (6+ : 0/37, 6p)

10/10 14/1< SP (16/1+ : 0/46, 5p)

10/10 top 3 at least once last three runs (0/29, 2p were not)

10/10 placed at least once last 2 starts (0/44,4p did not)

10/10 had won for trainer previously (had not: 0/33,3p)

8/10 had 1 or 2 handicap wins

  • 0: 0/24, 1p
  • 3+ : 2/44, 11p

8/10 had 1-9 runs in handicaps (8/57, 17p)

8/10 placed on last run (2/75, 12p did not vs 8/48, 19p did)

  • 8/10 top 3 LTO
  • 5/10 Won LTO (5/21, 14p)

8/10 WON LTO or within 5L of winner (2/63,11p did not)

 

Trainers (22 yrs) with runners

  • Fujaira Prince (1/2,2p)
  • Crystal King (2/8, 4p)
  • Rare Groove (1/1)
  • Everything For You (1/4,2p)

 

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Flat Feature Race ‘test’, using stats/trends and longlist / trainers / my shortlist

Stats Longlist (5x races: 2/31,10p, -15) 

10/10 stats (exc odds) + 1+ handicap wins…

Fujaira Prince 2nd / First Eleven I1 WON 5/1/ Crystal King / Rare Groove / Corgi G1 I3 3rd/ Stealth Fighter / Collide H3 4th / Everything For You G3

Trainers (6x races: 2/13, 7p, +2) 

(those horses on long list also representing previous winning trainers)

  • Fujaira Prince 2nd / Crystal King UP / Rare Groove UP / Everything For You UP

My Shortlist (5x races: 1/15,5p, -9) 

Fujaira Prince 2nd  / First Eleven WON 5/1 

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2.25 York

Trainers (previous winners with runners)

  • Aljady /Great Prospector (Fahey – 2/32, 12p)
  • Staxton / Flying Pursuit / Golden Apollo (T Easterby – 1/19,4p)
  • Intisaab / Gulliver / Arecibo (D O’Meara- 2/7,3p)

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York Dante Meeting Pointers/Notes: READ HERE>>>

 

Newmarket LTO Micro (10/1< guide)

3.00 -Major Jumbo / El Astronaute / Ornate

3.35 – I’ll Have Another

 

Trainer Pointers

(hitting various stats in the report above)

1.50

First Eleven (9/2<)

Fujaira Prince

2.25

Intisaab / Gulliver / Arecibo

3.35

Sparkle Roll / Entitle (9/2<)

Frankellina

Nausha

I’ll Have Another (12/1< guide)

4.05

I Am A Dreamer (12/1< guide)

4.35

Monoski (12/1< guide, 0 career run 0/7,2p)

5.05

Winged Spur (12/1< guide)

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. (13:50 York
    STEALTH FIGHTER 12/1 gen 1pt win
    PROSCHEMA 20/1 gen 1pt win)
    (14:25 York
    REPUTATION 11/1 gen 1pt win
    SAVALAS 25/1 gen 1pt win)

    write ups tomorrow.

    1. 13:50
      STEALTH FIGHTER
      one for the notebooks if he doesn`t win today, should be up with the pace and has a top jock on board, value of the first couple in the betting.
      PROSCHEMA
      speed in abundance and also should be up with the pace, which you need to be at York, if yer out the back of the tv, you normally stay there. At 20/1 this one was value.
      14:25
      REPUTATION
      won cleverly at Ripon and beat most of these there, should come on for that and is value at double figures.
      SAVALAS
      speed, pace every box ticked for this one has Mr Kingscote on board and should forge clear if left in front.

      Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

      1. Hi Stewart, unless everywhere I looked at is wrong Eaves is on Savalas. Not sure where you got Kingscote on unless you meant Prochama since that’s his only ride of the day. Eaves is who you would expect to be on so that’s a good thing. Kingscote would have been a very odd booking in the context of things.

      2. Thanks Nick, got to bed late last night as my old brain is studying at the moment, exams at my age are not the norm, but, glad we are on the same one, apologies, you are quite correct it was Proschema i meant to say had Kingscote on all will be forgiven when SAVALAS romps home!!

  2. York.

    1.50 First Eleven, 2 points win. Has class one form and the Gosden and Dettori team have a decent record at the meeting, The horse makes its seasonal debut here but will be fit to go for this. Each way backers may try to get some 6/1.
    3.00 George Bowen, 1 point each way. George gets a go at group 2 level and may be able to run in to a place etc against some horses with question marks around them. Invincible Army looks short in the betting to me and Limato and Brando have disappointed enough times. Ornate runs here but watch him when he drops into handicap company. 16/1 about now.
    4.05 The Night Watch, 1 point win. Now qualified for handicaps by William Haggas, Cieron Fallon rides and takes 7LB off. Had had a pipe opener at Salisbury and so should be fit enough to have a go here. 13/2 and if drifting to 8/1 then 1 point each way.

    Good luck.

    1. well done Martin, just nabbed me the bugger! A decent run as he was fresh enough through that, no excuses for mine, perfect trip, that winner just with a touch more class, and giving him 9lb with no run, decent year ahead.

  3. no selections today (unless i wake up silly o’clock and can’t get back to sleep)
    so i’ve allowed myself £25 for a few fun bets at York.
    1-50. Fujaira Prince £6 win@ 3-1 , sky money back if 2nd or 3rd
    2-25. Intisaab £2 ew @ 14-1, sky 6 places
    3-00. El Astronaute £2 ew @ 33-1 bv
    3-35. Sparkle Roll £4 win @ 11-4
    4-05. The Night Watch £2 ew @ 13-2, wh 5 places
    5-05. Benadalid £1-50 ew @ 14-1 sky 5 places

    1. first 4 from York and add
      Yarmouth 2-00. Lincoln Red 7-1
      Newton Abbot 2-10. Tamarillo Grove 18-1, 2-45. Enjoy Responsibly 4-1
      for ITV7, 12p ew accum for ‘arf a million squid, is that Supertramp i hear in the background 🙂

  4. The criteria I’m working to hasn’t thrown up a qualifier for a while and therefore I’ve been twiddling my thumbs but because York has come along I’ve had a look at the 6f sprint @ 2.25

    Forecast is for a fine dry day, probably g/f going and a gentle tailwind which adds up to front runners/on the pace horses doing best.

    Sandras Secret (20/1 EW) is reunited with S De Sousa again (3/3) and returns to the scene of its last win only 1lb higher (cl2 19K)
    Likes to make the pace and according to Turftrax is on the quicker side of the straight.
    Is there a better jockey on a front runner?.
    I fancy it to place at least.

    Another who should do well is Savalas EW.(20/1)
    Last season ran 2/18 (62K) over 6f at York (OR98)
    Struggled afterwards rated 100+
    Today returns to York rated 95.
    Should go close.
    The negative for me is the jockey but that’s reflected in the current price

  5. COLINS BETS
    7.55 Bath Agent Gibbs BOG 4/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.45 Yarmouth Loose Chippings BOG 13/2
    4.05 York Space Blues BOG 7/2
    9.05 Perth Song Of The Night BOG 16/1
    NEW METHOD
    Yarmouth
    2.00 Lincoln Red BOG 10/3
    3.10 Voi BOG 9/2
    4.15 Balgair BOG 5/1
    Bath
    5.25 Dalness Express BOG 11/4
    5.55 Powerful Dream BOG 5/2
    Colin

  6. Write up and conclusion on the 3.00 York in yesterdays post…Have had a look at two more at York….first 3.35. A very tricky but fascinating race with some extremely nice pedigrees from those contesting the race. Favs in this type of race 32/67 = 48%. 2nd Favs are 14/66 = 21% and the history of the race sees the top of the market dominate with only an 8/1 winner in the last 10 years so no big outsiders here (cue egg on face!)….so, according to this trend it is between Sparkle Roll, Frankellina, Sand Share, Entitle, and the “outsider” according to the above mentioned criteria is Dubai Blue…Josh has made a compelling case for Frankellina and given the outstanding pedigree and for the way the horse ran on over the 8f at Yarmouth, easy to see why…Personally, I think the horse is too short despite Haggas winning the race in 2018..with 2nd favs only 21% and not reflected in the price (should be double the price of fav) will give this a miss (apologies Josh and it will now bolt up!)….Of the two Gosden runners I prefer Frankies mount though Sparkle Roll is better bred. Two reasons for this are the prices of the respective horses…Sparkle Roll should be nearer evens given favs are 48% so why the longer price?…value you may say and that is true but the market should have it shorter so that puts a question mark in my mind as to the horses capability…it may well win but the speed of the Sandown win in April was slow 34.55 mph even though it was a comfortable win..the average speed for that distance should be around 36 mph so for me there is a question mark over the form and this may well be reflected in the market price. Sand Share’s speed over the 8f is slower than that of Dubai Blue at the equivalent distance, so at the prices prefer the latter, as both have been running in higher grades and not sure if there is too much speed in the sire of Sand Share to make the horse competitive over the longer distance..finally that leaves Entitle, the horse has a good pedigree, not as impressive as either the fav nor Frankellina but at 7/1 is each way value…the analysis may prove to be complete bo****ks but at least you can see how my mind works (or doesn’t!!!) so that you can come to your own conclusions! Gd lck with whatever you decide to back.

  7. If the other races on the York card have been tricky, this one is no exception..Favs 38% 11-29 and 2nd Favs 13% 3-24 and again the biggest priced winner in the last 10 years has been 14/1 with the next in 8/1 so some hope for e/w value. Of those that have run Kidda @ 6/1 looks the best value, having the best adjusted speed figures according to my calculations..the horse does have a penalty to carry which is slightly off putting and does depend on the horse having enough in the locker to defy this and beat horses which closely match the colt’s performance. Both Dazzling Des (what a cracking name I think) and Harswell are closely matched with Kidda regarding speed. Halloa has beaten Harswell by 4 lengths so has to enter into calcualtions and is backable e/w at the prices..In regard to the new comers I like the pedigree of Fahey’s other runner Summer Sands…there is certainly speed on the sire’s side, counterbalanced by stamina on the dam’s side and Frankie’s mount Bomb Proof….so all in all, a tricky race…inconclusive as what to back but hopefully the above has given some pointers. Gd lck.

  8. For those brave enough to be still following S2A, Tamarillo Grove just won at 25/1 (34.0 BSP!). I almost gave up with this Stategy following a long losing run, but glad i didn’t as this was a very welcome winner.

    Cheers,
    Brad

    1. Ah balls. I did them in the winter season. I forgot I had a risk free bet for that race. If I’d remembered it’ll probably gone on that. (Frustrated smiley)

  9. Good day for each way bets on the trainer pointers Josh. Managed to grab I am a Dreamer at 50’s. Thank you for that.

    1. well done, typically I didn’t home in on the two winners, the two i liked done by a neck, but I suppose with my jumps eyes that’s about 2L ! Yep, plenty have run well, which is always nice to see.

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