Members Daily Post: 13/05/19 (tipsx2/complete)

Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kempton

4.20 – Come On Charlie   (micro runs) H3 I3 10/3

 

FLAT

Musselburgh

2.30 – Foxy Boy   (m dist) 18/1 

3.35 – Stone The Crows   (m +class) 14 11/1 

 

Windsor

5.20 – Shagalla   (all hc’s,m runs) 14,30 w2 H3 5/2 

6.20 – Heritage   (m class) H3 G1 3/1 

8.20 – Petrastar   (m TJC) 7/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 8/57, 16p +4.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 3/11,4p, +3.25)

 

Daily Tips

7.40 Killarney 

Icantsay – 1 point win – 12/1 (gen) 3rd

The Gatechecker – 1 point win – 16/1 (bet365/BetfS/BV/PP) 14/1 (others) UP

that’s all for this race, 09.35, write up…

Icantsay – this horse won the race last year off 128 and he’s only 2lb higher here, with a useful 7lb claim from a jockey who’s got a decent enough record over fences. He’s a prominent racer and should take it up at some point, and at his best he’s arguably one of the best jumpers in this line up – many in here like to hit the odd fence. Soft ground, especially over fences, doesn’t appear to be what he wants which may excuse his last run. His run before that was his first in 292 days and that chase run came only 8 days later. Given this is just his third run since his victory in this he must have had problems. It could be he’s on the downgrade but i’d like to think he’s been aimed at this and will be ready to run his race. If he is, he will outrun these odds and with any luck he can get into a rhythm on the front and put this lot to the sword. I was happy to take a chance at 12s.

The Gatechecker – well I agonised and agonised over this, deliberating between him and Rachel Blackmore’s mount but i’ll get onto him in a moment.  I tipped this one when he last ran over fences in the Cork National, which was deeper than this I think. He clouted the first hard there, didn’t have the smoothest of passages and still managed to run on for 3rd, the front three miles clear. I have a few niggles but IF he repeated that run, he’d be no 16s shot in this line up. The trainer has won this before, many moons ago. I’ve no idea on JP jockey bookings in this, esp with M Walsh out injured, but ‘slippers’ is a fine rider and has ridden the horse once before. There are plenty of niggles with him- he has his own mind and they are always patient with him. He will be held up out the back, and he can hit a fence. It could be his race is over soon enough but at 16s I just couldn’t help myself. Were he 10s< i wouldn’t have bothered but I just hope he runs his and can repeat that Cork run. I’d like to think this may have been a plan since his last run, but we shall see. If he keeps drifting beyond 16s I’ll know my fate.

Of the rest…

Well I could have Na Trachtalai Abu all wrong and i have had a saver on at 11s, in case i’ve messed this one up. He’s 1/21 over fences, 10p, he can be consistent but is hard to win with, can’t hit the front too soon and i’ve no idea what went wrong LTO. He was fancied there and has a decent winning record fresh. Having watched it back he was just never in it. I’m not sure if he couldn’t go the pace over that trip or just had an off day. He did jump well, and was allowed to come home in his own time. So, there can’t have been a problem otherwise he’d have been PU. Just odd. Maybe this has been the plan and we will see a different horse. He does have the ability to win this and it is interesting that RB was on LTO and retains the ride. I didn’t want three onside in this and in the end decided i’d be far more annoyed if the Gatechecker won at 16s. He is effectively 20lb above his winning chase mark but did place three starts back off effectively 5lb lower, where he somewhat stopped in front with the race at his mercy, the front two miles clear. So, his mark may be ok. If he’s lobbing along just off the pace here I’ll know I may have got him wrong. He’s another who is a fine jumper, which will keep him in it, if back to form.

Of the rest… well Walk To Freedom has an obvious chance I suppose but he’s 9/2 and has been held up on recent chase starts and if he jumps as he did LTO, he won’t be winning. If he repeats the run before that, then he may well be winning this! His RPRs are very good, esp compared to most of these, and there should be more to come over fences.  Maybe they will be more positive on him, that wouldn’t surprise me. He has the ability and class but given his style/jumping niggles, I was happy to take on at 9/2. But clearly he’s a danger.

I was happy to leave the others wearing green and gold, at the prices, for one reason or another. Uisce Beatha is the least exposed in this line up, and that makes him interesting. But, he’s 6, and yet to win beyond 17f. He just had a few too many questions and his jumping has been scrappy at times also, and will be under the pump, especially around this tight track. However, this trip may be the making of him, but there just wasn’t enough there for me. I didn’t think he stayed LTO. But he’s an interesting profile. Swingbridge, the 11yo, can beat me at 15/2, at least he’s in form, fit and running well, which is a question for many in here inc my two. That may well be enough but I didn’t want to wade in at that price and he’s yet to prove he stays beyond 25f. Wishmoor has too many questions now and I tipped him LTO, but I think he’s just out of form and couldn’t see a reason for a sudden revival. That would be a sickening one but you couldn’t touch him I don’t think now, even at his price. He’ll repeat that GN Trial run at Punch at some point, and go close again.

I should mention Consharon Boy who i was a bit on the fence with given the days off. His profile in recent times suggests he may have had problems, he can hit a fence also. But he races prominently and could go well. He may be handicapped beyond his best though and I thought there may be better horses in this. I didn’t like the other two.

So, an open looking race, but a couple of live outsiders I hope, with one that I could well have got wrong, but you can’t back them all!

best of luck.

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Trainers with runners who’ve won the race previously: Josies Orders / Auvergnat (2017 winner) / The Gatechecker / Icantsay (last years winner)

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

No tips today.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

4.50 K – Blushing Red

Jockeys/Chasers

7.40 K – Uisce Beatha

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

4.50 Kemp- Blushing Red

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. no selections today.
    silly ew L15,
    Musselburgh.
    2-30. Lord of the Glen 12-1
    3-05. Lualiwa 16-1
    4.10. Tellovoi 10-1
    Windsor.
    8-20. Moxy Mares 12-1

  2. Killarney 19:40
    NA TRACHTALAI ABU 10/1 gen 1pt win
    After missing out lto , believe Rachel Blackmore has been booked for a reason here and at 10/1 is definitely value.
    UISCE BEATHA 14/1 gen 1pt win
    Low weight, pace has been good with this one and hopefully has enough speed at the end to justify the odds at value!

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  3. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    5.20 Windsor Sapa Inca BOG 6/4
    NEW METHOD
    4.30 Wolverhampton Nabbeyl BOG 3/1
    Colin

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 5.45 – Eyreborn on 5th run @ 10
    W 5.20 – Born To Please on 2nd run @ 33
    W 8.20 – Escape The City on 3rd run @ 11/2
    R 7.00 – Poseidon on 5th run @ 5
    Festival
    K 7.40 – Auvergnat on 2nd run @ 11

  5. Is awful quiet in here this past couple of days. Nothing for me this afternoon but got some for Windsor tonight. Will post them about 4.00 after I’ve checked for any non hcp runners that may (or may not), catch my eye.

    1. Win’ 5.20 Sapa Inca…………… HCP
      Win’ 5.50 Constitutional…….. 10.0
      Win’ 7.20 Red Phoenix……….. HCP
      Win’ 8.20 Simoon……………… HCP

      A couple of likely fav’s in there and fav’s at Windsor are…. 17/37 (45.95)% +24.77pts (inc’ B/f comission @ 5%). 66.96 ROI since March 2016. Not big on backing fav’s myself, but I’m going with it as and where past profits justify it.

  6. AW Update Wolverhampton

    Hello all. Today’s mild fancies are on the free post where you can also find a classic George B list to look through. My strongest fancies are Dark Miracle (16.20) and Sellingallthetime (17.00).

    Good luck.

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