Members Daily Post: 11/05/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x5/ Daily Tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Saturday big race pointers etc

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Haydock

3.10 – John Constable   (micro runs) 11/2

5.55 – Gardefort   (m class) H3 5/1

 

Hexham

3.15 –

Civil Unrest   (all Hc’s,m dist and -dist) H3 I1 3/1

Quick Brew   (m class) 12/1 S2

3.50 –

Desert Island Dusk   (HcH,m class) 5/1

Beyondtemptation   (HcH) I3 8/1

5.00 –

Ueueteotl   (all Hc’s) H3 6/1

Allez Cool   (HcCh) 16/1 S2A 2nd 

Apache Pilot   (m class) 3/1

 

Warwick

6.30 – Fenlons Court   (m class) 20/1 S2A

7.30 –

Cultivator   (all Hc’s)  w2 8/1

Tales Of The Tweed   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2 10/1 S2

8.00 –

Royale Django   (m LTO) 14/1 S2

Phoenix Rock   (all Hc’s) 14/1 S2

8.30 –

King Erik   (1st NHF) 5/1

Elleon (1st NHF)  14/1 S2

Foggy Creek (1st NHF) 18/1 S2A

 

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FLAT

Ascot

4.00 – Raising Sand   (all Hc’s)  w2 14/1

 

Haydock

None

 

Lingfield 

4.15 –

War Glory   (all Hc’s) H1 I3 G3 3/1 S4 WON 7/2 

Regimented   (all Hc’s) 11/1

 

Nottingham

2.20 –

Zapper Cass   (m dist and going if soft/TBC sat morning) 20/1

Dr Doro   (all Hc’s)  w2 I3 12/1

2.55 –

Swordbill   (all Hc’s,m age) 12/1

Principia   (m going if soft) 14/1

4.05 – Yorbelucky   (all Hc’s, m age) 14/1

4.40 –

Dark Devil   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 8/1 S3A

Deinonychus   (m going if soft) 10/1

5.50 –

Bidding War   (m going if soft) 15/2

Break The Silence   (all Hc’s,4yo+,m class) I1 G3 16/1 S6 UP

 

Thirsk

5.40 –

One Boy   (4yo+) 28/1

Pearl Noir   (m class) G3 11/1

7.45 – Apterix   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 5/1 

8.45 –

Coastal Drive   (4yo+,m dist) G1 16/1 S6 

Crosse Fire   (m class) H1 I3 8/1 S6 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 8/56, 16p +5.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 3/11,4p, +3.25)

 

Daily Tips

5.00 Hexham 

Cornish Warrior – 1 point win – 5/1 (gen) UP 8/1, poor.

Kings Eclipse – 1 point win – 20/1 (bet365/BetfS/PP) 18/1 (SB)

that’s all for Daily Tips (3m+ chases, C4+) as of 09.05, write ups…

Cornish Warrior – i thought this still unexposed handicap chaser was a shade too big, on his second run after a break. This is a long way to come for Mulholland, with only one horse, and i’d like think he’s here to run his race, for his red hot trainer. He ran ok to a point LTO, but the two in front there were 118+ and the form has since been franked. I suspect he also needed it. A repeat of his Ffos Las and Southwell wins would be enough to be bang there in this line up I think and he looks a big galloping sort, who may well relish this test. The ground should be ok, albeit if they get more rain than expected and it goes soft (of the official description is wrong) that would be a minor concern, but more a case of him being unproven on it. He’s generally a good jumper, his mark his fine and he travels just off the pace. I thought he was the one to beat, given his younger legs. 

Kings Eclipse – the market may well guide here but I couldn’t resist a nibble at his price, in the hope he may bounce back to the form of his Carlisle win. Clearly if he got back to that level, only three starts back, he’d be outrunning these odds. I’m not sure what happened at Ayr but he was never in a rhythm, his jumping went to pieces and the subsequent break suggests maybe a slight issue. He returns at Hexham 7 days ago, held up out the back (which isn’t usual for him), sent off 33s, and running well to a point, before blowing up I suspect – well i’m assuming he was nowhere near fit enough. It could be he has just gone out of form as quickly as he came into it, but he’s still lightly raced over fences and I suspect they’ll be more aggressive on him. They watered here on Tuesday, before getting 18mm of rain on Wed/Thurs, dry yesterday, with some showers today. It’s not impossible that this is testing enough. He does like to get his toe in. It is a bit of a poke, but one with some merit, and i’ll see how he goes.

Of the rest… well i’m taking on 11 year olds priced 7/2 and 10/3 all day long and if one of them takes this, then so be it. The two selections are far more interesting than either Solid Strike (who is solid) or Apache Pilot, if running their race. I was happy to leave the other 10/11 year olds. The Road Home and Bocasien Desbois also have a few too many questions for me, in the context of their price.

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That’s all from me today.

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips (x5/complete) 

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

2.20 Notts – Hawaam – 1 point EW – 17/2 (bet365/betfS/BV/PP) 3rd 10/1  +0.7 / +1 (bog)

4.00 Ascot – Zap – 1 point EW – 33/1 (gen) (6 places SB/BetS/PP/UniB/Boyle) UP -2

4.05 Notts – Kadrizzi – 1 point EW – 15/2 (BV/Coral) 7/1 (gen) 3rd 8/1, +0.4 / +0.6 

7.30 Warw- Cultivator  – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen)

8.15 Thirsk – Justice Lady – 1 point EW – 12/1 (WH/BV) 11/1 (gen)

all Nicks, tips, as of 09.46

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler

4.50 Ling – Tapiserrie

Jumps

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

2.00 Hayd – Ocean Cove

8.30 Warw – Hunny Moon

A Honeyball Mares

4.25 Hex – Tara West

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers

8.00 War – A Tail of Intrigue

LTO winning hurdlers

6.30 Warw -Blairs Cove

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Handicap Chase Starting Points (10/1< best)

8..0 Warw- Danseur Du Large / Don’t Be Robin

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.50 Hex – Kick On Dottie

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday Big Race Trends/Pointers

Victoria Cup + Swinton Hurdle : READ HERE>>>

 

Victoria Cup

Looking at those that had yet to run above C2, 4-10 runs prev 365 days, and top 5 LTO… leaves 8/67, 19p in last decade, and just 3 hit all those boxes…

Kynren H1 G1 / Blue Mist / Sanaada H3 I1

 

Trainers with runners who’ve won race previously 

  • Kynren / Ripp Orf / Glorious Journey / Above The Rest / Nicholas T

 

Stats Longlist  (4x races: 1/23,7p, -13) 

Kynren / Blue Mist / Sanaada

My Shortlist (4x races: 0/13,3p, -13) 

Kynren 15/2 / Blue Mist 12/1  / Sanaada 20/1

Trainers (5x races: 2/9, 6p, +6) 

(horses who hit my trends profile + trainer has won race previously, early days but as an EW approach could be interesting, esp given the odds) 

Kynren 

 

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Swinton Hurdle

Up 2 classes max / ran 2m – 2m 1/2 f LTO / 1-3 runs prev 90 days / Class 1 or C2 LTO… leaves 10/64, 22p in last decade for a long list of…

Mister Fisher H1 I3 / Fiesole / Champagne City I3/ Dino Velvet H3 / Leoncavallo / Cubswin / This Time Next Year / Arthington 

Finishing top 2 LTO hasn’t been a positive in this historically but so many in this arrive ‘in form’ I suspect that stat may go, but from that list above only Mister Fisher and Leoncavallo hit that stat, and the latter along with Dino Velvet and This Time Next Year also ran at Ayr/Aintree/Sandown LTO.

Trainers with runners who’ve won race previously 

  • Mister Fisher / John Constable / Jenkins / Project Bluebook

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. 15:10 Haydock
    JOHN CONSTABLE 13/2 gen 1pt win
    CUBSWIN 22/1 gen 1pt win

    16:00 ASCOT
    RIPP ORF 11/1 vc/pp/bfr 1pt win
    HAJJAM 33/1 gen 1pt win
    TAUREEN STAR 25/1 gen 1pt win

    Write ups in morning.

    1. Well, it`s been a torrid week for me personally and I think i can say after hitting the bar a couple of times the flat does have more downs than ups, I`ll split my interest this Saturday and when I have more time on my hands I always seem to be able to concentrate more! Everything i won last weekend has near enough gone, such are the fine lines we are dealing with here and whomever says this game is easy, needs their head checking!
      Onto today,
      15:10 Haydock

      JOHN CONSTABLE 5/1 gen
      Well, the money has come for this one now, it`s no surprise as I know some well known tipsters have waxed lyrical about this ones chances and if returning to the way he obliterated the field in 2017, then this should be a walk over! As we all know though, this is horse racing and even in a field of one they can still fall!!! trainer has won this 4 times out of the last 6, jockey is confident etc…etc.. watch him finish out the back of the tv now!!!
      CUBSWIN 22/1
      Now, this lady needs no introduction, she won for us last month and is progressing nicely, trainer feels she needs further, but, after her last two victories I beg to differ, she won cleverly lto I feel and although Dickie looked as though he was panicking, she looked as though the attitude was, yer not beating me on the line!? Price is value and if some of you want to go each way i wouldn`t put you off, but, from now on I mean to stick to win only.

      16:00 Ascot
      RIPP ORF 10/1 gen
      Been here seen it done it etc, Hayley back on board is a big positive and even though the horse does go for other jocks, think Hayley is the “one” that does best! he is a little higher than last year in the weights, but, loves Ascot for some reason and at 10/1 is value.
      HAJJAM 25/1 gen
      the overnight 33`s has gone, he may drift again, but, this one has speed in abundance, is another who may favour Ascot and has a lot of form lines through these at higher weights, so, on the balance of that and back on a soft surface he may come good. 25`s still value.
      TAUREEN STAR 25/1 gen
      Another who has bags of ability and speed, he comes late which if they all bunch up may be a hindrance, but, if they split, he may get a lucky break, like he did at Good wood and gobble them all up close home!
      (I have taken the brakes off the Flat test, for the weekend, as I said i get more time to study, so, therefore enjoy it more and am able to get my teeth into it, we shall see after today, think moving forward that may be my attitude over all the flat season as i do like to study rather than make haphazard judgments as i did with some bets at Chester this week. Some lost and that`s the nature of the game, but, some were just poor judgement with no time to study!! As Josh does, I beat myself up sometimes after the events!)

  2. Ascot 4-00. Raising Sand 16-1 and Presidential 9-1 both will relish the cut in the ground and at bigger prices Hajjam 33-1 and Green Power 33-1 could go well, Green Power has never been further than 6f but has shown early speed and has been staying on, won a maiden in soft ground could well front run and hang on for a place at least 33’s seems fair and i may well have a punt.

  3. today’s selections.
    Haydock.
    2-10. Whisper 8-1
    3-10. Cubswin 22-1
    Nottingham.
    3-30 Chynna 12-1
    Ascot.
    4-00. Raising Sand 14-1 and Green Power 33-1 (small savers on other 2 as above)
    5-45. Infanta Isabella 6-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  4. A rare musing from me! Christopher Wood and Sofia’s Rock are unexposed in the Swinton today with preference for the former, given his LTO run. No particular value in either’s price though so I’m going for Nietzsche who for me is overpriced on his previous form and who has run with credit the last twice. Good luck all and let’s hope all jockeys and horses come home safely.

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 3.10 – John Constable on 7th run @ 11/2
    W 8.00 – Royale Django on 3rd run @ 12
    ………….Phoenix Road on 7th run @ 14
    A 4.00 – Green Power on 3rd run @ 40
    L 4.15 – Sir Titan on 2nd run @ 10
    T 5.40 – Lexington Place on 7th run @ 10
    T 6.15 – Cuppacoco on 8th run (inc 5xaw) @ 12
    Festival
    H 3.10 – Champagne City on 2nd and 3rd run @ 18
    H 5.25 – Huntsmans Son on 1st run @ 11/2
    A 4.00 – Via Serendipity on 1st run @ 50
    …………Kynren on 6th run @ 8
    …………Green Power on 4th run @ 40
    3m+
    H 2.00 – Whisper on 2nd run @ 7
    GL

  6. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    1.25 Lingfield Dashing Poet BOG 13/2
    4.00 Ascot Cape Byron BOG 10/1
    5.10 Ascot Follow The Steps BOG 14/1
    5.10 Ascot Quick Breath BOG 12/1
    5.50 Nottingham Camile BOG 9/2
    NEW METHOD
    Ascot
    2.15 Eddystone Rock BOG 10/1
    4.00 Kynren BOG 15/2
    5.45 Double Reflection BOG 11/1
    Hexham
    3.15 Civil Unrest BOG 10/3
    5.00 Solid Strike BOG 7/2
    Warwick
    8.00 Water Wagtail BOG 8/1
    Thirsk
    8.45 Milton Road BOG 11/2
    Colin

  7. This might be something or a complete bust but I am after being made aware of the 8.45 @thirsk being named after Rebecca Menzies she sends one horse for the race named in her honour Searanger it’s a lowly class 6 and at 14/1 just might be worth a bet – this is pure and simple playgirism but I tought some might like the angle

    1. hmmm… the race named after her honour ‘celebrating 30th bday handicap’ is the 7.45! Of which she doesn’t have a runner in it. But said horse you mention is her only runner on the card, so as a way of wanting to celebrate her Bday, that logic would still make some sense! best of luck.

  8. The Victoria Cup…

    hmm, well I haven’t had time to do this race justice, form wise, outside of the stats work above and I didn’t have time to trawl through and do any test tips, i preferred to spend the time on Hexham!

    But, as well as two throwaway 5s on machine on the two bigger priced ones on the stats shortlist (Kynren looks short enough to my eyes but maybe i’m wrong),

    I have had £5EW for interest on LAKE VOLTA…
    Simply used pace as the way in… I think he may try and make all and get an easy enough time on front, won easily LTO, fit/in form, and some big field form and his RPR LTO was his best in 5/6 runs, he could get better this year. There may be nothing to it, and I haven’t looked at the rest in any depth at all. A simplistic approach that in theory should end in tears, hence the interest wager level. But, I thought at 20s (being backed) he may go ok.
    We shall see!

  9. AW UPDATE

    Just a quick summary from yesterday’s musings. From the nine horses favourably mentioned over four races we had two winners (13/2 and 7/2 SP) and a place (28/1 SP, 33/1 when advised).

    So not too bad. There was a profit to be made with sensible staking. Back next week for more AW fun 🙂

  10. 2.00 Haydock, Limited Reserve, 1 point each way at 14/1 Bet365. Has had a pipe opener on the all weather. Has course, class and going winning form. If he does not bounce after his one run after a lengthy break he can be competitive at a price.
    3.10 Haydock, Christopher Wood, 2 points win at 7/1 Bet365. Paul Nicholls does like a big Saturday handicap and he has a nice unexposed type here. His third to Pentland Hills was a good run and had two previous wins in class 4. So has scope and may be better than this lot?

  11. Had a look at a couple of races 1.45 Notts and 1.55 Lingfield…latter a really trappy race and now down to seven runners yet again..bunch of thieving b’s in what is a real nightmare to decipher…the 1.45 first…difficult to see beyond Benny and the Jets…great pedigree ran 37.71 mph over 6.09 f t Wolvs ….the interesting horse is Kodi King…pedigree just average but speed was impressive both times the horse has run…ran over 7.02f at Donc in a C5 and clocked 37.52 mph (average is 36.98) and over 5f in a C3 at Newcastle clocking 37.92 mph (average 37.27)so proved speed over two very different distances….pedigree is just ordinary na dif running to those kinds o of speed will have a good chance of beating Benny…Bold show could be anything…has a very good pedigree, and should not be discounted…favs are 26/52…at the prices Kodi King based on the figures is the each way poke but all horses have to deal with the declared soft going which could completely scupper everything I have just said!! caution advised and this applies to the 1.55 Lingfield which is one of the most difficult races to get your head around and as a betting medium with only seven runners now is probably best avoided…when i started looking at this race there were 8 runners and just finished then there were seven, very frustrating…at a price Cape Islay may be the one to produce an upset and was good e/w value when there were 8 runners but with only the seven win only will be the way to go but I think anything could pop up…even Lady Cosette…0 from 9 and slow as a boat…Elisheba could also surprise…Tauteke and Anapurna have obvious chances but at the prices and given the going don’t fancy them but that is not to say they cannot win but favs 3/13 and 2nd favs 1/9 you cannot argue with either of the pedigrees as they are extremely well bred …probably a watching brief this one and have only included the write up as cost me a lot of time to try and decipher but have obviously been scuppered now by the lack of an each way option…hope this helps those playing …gd lck

  12. Today’s afternoon selections….

    Asc’ 2.15 Autumn War…………… HCP (Fav’s OK)
    Asc’ 3.25 Adorable……………….. HCP (Fav’s OK)
    Asc’ 4.00 Glorious Journey…….. HCP (Fav’s OK)
    Not’ 4.40 Chingachook………….. HCP (Fav”s OK)

    Have at least one evening bet so back at 4.00 with the update.

    1. What turned out to be the only qualifier I had, Bidding War, has been withdrawn so no more from me for today.

  13. Nick after watching the 8-15 back a couple of times Justice Lady must be worth another shot nto (Beverly tuesday ? ) boxed in, went for a gap that closed , switched and blocked again, jockey then stopped riding when chance had gone. gone in my tracker.

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