Members Daily Post: 10/05/19 (tipsx1/complete)

Tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Nicks Tips x4,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Market Rasen

2.10 – Cabaret Queen   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 11/4 S3A 

3.20 –

Souriyan   (HcH,micro age)  w2 I3 9/1 

Wynford   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 9/1 S3A

3.55 – No Alarm   (HcH,m runs)  w2 H3 4/1 

 

Bonus Irish

Down Patrick

5.55 – Pump Road   (HCH)  w1  ES+ H3 11/4 S3A

 

FLAT

Ascot

3.45 – Vegas Boy   (all Hc’s) I3 14/1 

 

Chester

1.50 – Baraweez   (4yo+) I3 9/1 

 

Nottingham

5.50 – Boundsy   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 10/1 S3A

8.20 – Shazzab   (all Hc’s,m dist and age)  ES+ H3 6/1 S3A

 

Ripon

7.00 –

Magical Effect   (4yo+,m dist) H3 I3 G1 7/2 S4 

Explain   (4yo+, m dist) I3 G3 11/1 

Music Society   (m class) G3 12/1 

8.30 – Aphaea   (4yo+)  w2 7/2 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 8/56, 16p +5.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 3/11,4p, +3.25)

 

Daily Tips

2.10 MR – Van Gogh Du Granit – 1 point win – 9/2 (gen) WON 9/2>5/1 hacked up as hoped, always tanking and generally jumping well. Suspect he’d have beaten the fav anyway but thankfully she got up just fine, a long way from home but she’d been keen enough. Can’t believe he drifted/wasn’t backed in a fair bit shorter. 

I thought this one was entitled to be a bit shorter here, especially if reproducing that Ascot run and the level of his form there and Taunton is a bit better than what the others in this have done recently, to my eyes anyway. These are obviously calmer waters than the Scottish National. He should race prominently, his yard are going very well, and Pipe does well at the track with his chasers. Plenty in here look out of sorts or have too many questions to answer, inc the fav for me – 11/4 looks short. The Evans horse doesn’t look overpriced either, especially in this better race, with stamina to prove and he’s usually held up. I thought Pipes was the one to be with here, if he repeats his Ascot run.

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips (complete x4)

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

3.00 Chester – Frankuus – 1.5 pt win – 9/2 (gen) UP

3.10 Ascot – Sir Busker – 1 point EW – 14/1 (bet365/BV) 12/1 (gen) UP

3.35 Chester – Time To Study – 1 point EW –  20/1 (bet365/WH/BetfS/PP) UP

7.00 Ripon – Dark Defender – 2 point win – 6/1 (gen) WON 6/1>9/2

+6.5 

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Frankus -good draw, trainer and jockey 3/3 at meeting, loves soft ground, on good mark, only 2nd handicap of career

Time To Study Chester -was fav last in this off 11lb higher, only 5lb, excellent record fresh, yet to be out of the places in any run on good/soft or worse, trainer won this last year, jockey rides track well

Dark Defender Ripon -only front runner, blinkers back on, 2nd run of trainer, on excellent mark, soft ground will suit

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Flat 

The Doyler

6.40 Wolv – Pinatubo

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Jumps

Tom Lacey 

2.45 MR – Lake Washington

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainer to follow

3.20 MR – Talent To Amuse

2.45 MR – Lord Washington

Jockeys/Chasers

2.10 MR – Elkstone

2.10 MR – Compadre

Henry Brooke (25/1<)

5.05 MR-  Bonsai Boy

 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW!

#1 Trainer Track Profiles: FLAT 2019  Yours HERE>>>

(the stats which underpin Section 1 … complete with a cover photo of Blessed doing her thing at Brighton) 

#2 Chester May Meeting: Trainer Pointers  READ HERE>>> 

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Chester May Meeting Day 3

‘qualifiers’ from the report above…

3.00 – Genetics

3.35 – Cleonte

4.40 – Indomeno (10/1<)

5.15 – Dioclentian

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

38 Responses

  1. today’s selections.
    Chester.
    1-50. Baraweez 9-1
    3-35. Watersmeet 25-1 wh 5 places
    4-40. Azari 18-1
    5-15. Faithful Mount 25-1 wh 4 places
    Market Rasen.
    3-20. Souriyan 10-1

  2. going to take a chance of there being more rain at Nottingham and have a punt on The Golden Cue in the 5-50 @ 22-1

  3. (15:00 Chester)
    (Restorer 1pt win 6/1 gen
    Aasheq 1pt win 8/1)
    (15:35 Chester
    Cleonte 11/2 1pt win
    Who dares wins 11/1 1pt win )

    Sorry no write ups again, hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

  4. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 5.15 – Paddy A on 7th run @ 40
    M 3.55 – Grand Enterprise on 1st run @ 33
    Co 8.35 – Gossamer Wings on 2nd run @ 7/2
    Festival
    C 1.50 – Aces on 2nd run @ 20
    C 3.55 – Whisky Sour on 4th,6th and 7th run @ 12
    C 5.15 – Never Surrender on 5th run @ 8
    3m+
    M 2.10 – Sporting Boy on 4th run @ 11
    GL

  5. COLINS BETS
    Chester
    1.50 Baraweez BOG 8/1
    3.00 Aquarium BOG 10/1
    Ripon
    7.30 Henley BOG 11/2
    8.30 Aphaea BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    1.50 Chester Ptarmigan Ridge BOG 5/2
    7.00 Ripon Queens Gift BOG 7/2
    8.30 So Near So Farhh BOG 6/1
    NEW METHOD
    3.20 M/R Becky The Thatcher BOG 11/2
    3.10 Ascot Tinto BOG 7/1
    5.15 Chester Coeur De Lion BOG 7/2
    8.20 Nottingham Sussex Girl BOG 11/2
    8.30 Ripon Aphaea BOG 10/3
    Colin

  6. AW UPDATE

    Not a bad first night without the benefit of George B on the AW yesterday. Of the 6 horses mentioned as worth a bet there were two winners (SP 11/4 and 7/1) and a place(8/1).

    Back between 3 and 4pm with Wolverhampton musings for anyone interested.

    1. He did comment of the free post the other day Mark. Don’t know if you caught it.

      1. Thanks James, forgot to check the free post. Have sent him a shout out today. Cheers for telling me 🙂

  7. Congrats Mark…glad to see you still on form…not sure if i will be playing today as non runners , resulting in small fields and suspect going make any choices difficult….have looked at a couple of races 2.00 pm Ascot is a race that is very difficult but any place potters out there the two to concentrate on are Star Alexander and Final Song in terms of pedigrees Birkie Queen the only one to have has a run ran 35.12 mph …the average for the distance according to my figures is 37.27 mph so the price reflects the chances. Favs 38% having placed 6 times…2nd favs 2/17 and placed 10 times so those playing for places gd news for 2nd favs. Inyamazane is an interesting runner having a very good pedigree and would have been an each way choice if there were 8 runners.

  8. First race for betting purposes isn’t till 4.20 so I might as well sort out the evening stuff and put them all up at 3.00. Several bets at Ripon and Nottingham tonight.

  9. If the 2.00 Ascot is tricky then the 2.35 Ascot is worse. Favs 1/4 with 2 placing 2nd Favs 2/4 with zero placed. Cape Cavalli ran 35.40 over 10f at Nmkt and was described as “going on well at the finish” but the speed of 35.40 is below the average of 36.153 mph…this may well be enough for the grade of race but is very short on what it has achieved. The two Gosden runners are interesting and of the two, on pedigrees, Kesia would be the choice for me but lack of runners makes it a no bet race…hope this is helpful for those playing the place markets. Gd lck.

    1. ha, thanks, well 5/1 was a nice bonus, thought he should have been 3s in that line up if not shorter, and won as he liked, albeit fav falling made the distance greater but given how he travelled through that no doubt in my mind he’d have won easily anyway. Still, need to add plenty more, onwards.

      1. and nicks 2 pointer just went in at ripon the tides are turning ………lets hope
        thanks Nick

  10. Ascot 4.20 Fightwithme………… HCP
    Ascot 4.55 Motafaawit………….. HCP
    Nott’ 6.20 Nette Rousse…………. 16.0
    Nott’ 6.50 Patchouli……………… HCP
    Nott’ 6.50 Amourously………….. HCP
    Rip’ 7.00 Queens Gift…………… HCP

    Seems to be picking up again with plenty for tonight and definitely some for tomorrow.

    1. Forgot to add that Fav’s are ok at all 3 tracks although only modest profits at Nott’ and Ascot. (+/- 20%)

  11. SBC Wolverhampton update

    Good afternoon all, quite an interesting card at Wolverhampton tonight with a couple of good betting heats where it will pay to back more than one horse, right up my street 🙂

    17.40 – This will only be Miss Enigma’s second start over 5f and I fancy her to repeat her course win of a few days ago. A 6lb penalty might be too much however so am saving on Superseded. He is better of at the weights with Miss Enigma and was also slowly away on that occasion.

    19.10 – Tigerfish is clearly in good heart after winning on turf the other day but she is a proven AW performer. But I slightly prefer the chances of Givepeaceachance after her decent second around here in March. Will back both.

    19.40 – the most interesting race of the night. Lothario is well fancied, not unreasonably given his run behind Gossiping who won again after a 14lb rise in his mark the other day. I don’t think I will rest easy after my curry tonight if I haven’t saved on Lothario. However, I do really like International Law whose only defeat in his last three runs was when he left this track and trip behind and went to Newcastle. Toriano also has a very good chance and I cannot leave Arlecchino’s Leap out of the equation given his record at the track. To sum up, for humble bragging purposes I am recommending bets on Lothario and International Law to win, and Arlecchinos EW.

    20.10 – I see this as between the front two in the betting so ripe for a forecast or dutching (Capofaro and Anna Bunina).

    That’s it, good luck to all.

  12. As per MC’s request two for Wolvs tonight…6.40 first. Favs 37% 2nd Favs 17 % Trainers Suroor, Watson Appleby…Jockeys Cosgrove, Doyle…….Dark Of Night sets the standard running 37.12 mph 4 lengths behind Electric Ladyland after badly missing the break so will improve with a cleaner start…the speed for the distance is 37.10 so the form of that race is above average and has the run and course experience and has a favs chance and should be shorter in price. Pinatubo is not without a chance but 2nd Fav stats put me off despite of horse having a really good pedigree with a sire that acts well on the tapeta…this applies to Genever Dragon and Platinum Star. An interesting runner is Sea The Spirit for Mike Murphy…the horse has a good pedigree though the trainer is 0/8 and jockey 2/32 for 2 yo but at 66/1 may outrun the odds… Gobi Sunset may get placed as the pedigree is very good and may improve for the step up in distance……hard to see past the Fav though. hope this is helpful.

    The 8.40 Wolvs is quite interesting…Favs 47% 2nd Favs 20% and Suroor 4/9 = 44% with 4 year olds…Bell is 22% with 3yo Youthful has a speed comparable with Jalaad over 7f…Youthful ran 7.16 f at Wolv in a class 5 at 36.79 mph and Jalaad ran at Donc in a C$ over 7.027f at 36.46 mph an the comment was “kept on strongly” so the extra distance at Wolv should not be a problem…the price is not one I can back at so Youthful would be the selection on that basis…I did a course adjusted calculation over the extended difference between the two horses and Jalaad came out at 35.72 mph so a further reason for choosing Youthful…the sire of Youthful has slightly better stats over the course and distance, so another reason to side with Youthful…I am not saying the fav will not win but I personally cannot back it at the short price. The other horses that have had a run is Jilbaab that ran 36.02 mph over 6.96 f at Salisbury. Lady Schannell ran over the extended 7f at Wolvs @ 35.99 mph and Huddle @ 36.91 mph which is better than Youthful’s run of 36.79 mph so that is fascinating, especially as the price is 100/1…so against the fav. Youthful and Huddle and surprise, surprise only 7 runners now so the bookies are not stupid, effectively, stopping anyone getting a decent each way bet on Huddle…the latter may not be able to compete at all but worth a shot at the price and is only up one grade….gd lc and hope the analysis helps you turn a profit.

    1. Fantastic Silver, thanks. I’d backed Youthful anyway so am happy to see your analysis 🙂 interesting about Huddle tho. You’re a gent, thanks for all the work 🙂

      1. You are welcome…I wish I could do it faster but unless someone is good at coding an algorithm on the criteria I use then it takes well over an hour a race depending on the number of runners but all good especially when you get it right as in the 2.35 Ascot when Kesia won…must take a leaf out of Josh’s win only attitude and be more adventurous in that regard. All the best.

    1. Thanks….looking back with Pinatubo winning the 6.40 beating my selection and the Kesia pick the common denominator is the better pedigree I had identified so that may be the final decider when making a selection as both had not run especially as my selection was out the frame…will have to monitor that to see if that is a way of identifying winners in such races whether they have had a run or not. Your saver Superseded popped in nicely at a good price, congrats…I find hdcps difficult to assess that is why I stick to the stakes races and as far as jumps go, defer to Josh…have found that specialising like this is more profitable but still a long way to go…on to tomorrow once I have had a breather.

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