Members Daily Post: 09/05/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Huntingdon

3.55 – Doctor Haze  (HcH) 20/1 S2A

 

Wincanton

6.20 – Fortia   (HcH) H3 I3 11/2 

 

Worcester

3.45 –

Picture Painter    (Micro age) 11/2 

Cape Fair   (HcH) 16/1 S2A

Mere Anarchy   (HcH) H3 I3 13/2 

5.20 – Dream Free   (m age) H3 6/1 

 

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FLAT

Chester

5.05 – Showroom   (m class) 16/1 S2A

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/55, 15p +0.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 3/9,4p, +5.25)

 

Daily Tips

None.

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Flat TEST

(2019: 3/9,4p, +5.25) 

3.00 C – Lola’s Theme – 1 point win – 8/1 (gen)

4.35 C – Gabrial The One – 1 point win – 7/1 (BV/PP/BetfS/WH) 6/1 (others)

 

Lola’s Theme… I’ve looked through the list of runners below/their races and at the prices I like these two most. I’m taking fitness on trust with this one but at 8s i’ll chance it. There’s  a fair bit of rain around tomorrow and it could be testing enough. The ground nor the trip will be a problem for this one and as with most of these there should be plenty more to come this season. She’s well drawn in two and can race prominently, so there shouldn’t be an excuse on that front. Plenty in here have ground questions, fingers crossed she’s tuned up for this. The market may well guide as to whether she is.

Gabrial The One… ground shouldn’t be a problem for this one either and he arrives here fit and in form, going forwards at the line when last seen on seasonal return. While it’s not a given he’s been aimed at this meeting, given the owner it’s always best to assume that may have been the case. He was keen in a slowly run race LTO and got stuck in a pocket on a rail before staying on when switched out, but his chance had gone. He does run as if he will relish this step up in trip and there should be plenty more to come from him. Horses do win from these wider draws, especially when the ground goes soft. Maybe that’s due to the inside getting chewed up/more testing, i’m not sure. But, you do need to get out and get a good early position, or drop in and take your medicine, but that’s never advised. There is a fair bit of pace on paper in this and I expect him to be staying on strongly late on, possibly sweeping wide into the straight.

That’s all for this ‘test’ on Day 2.

 

PLEASE NOTE… 

In a last minute move i’m off to Chester for the day, in some corporate hospitality. One of you good members, who also has a share in Super, has a spare after a late cancellation. I couldn’t really say no given it’s 40 minutes up the road by train.  So, firstly, if you have any strong fancies for any race, do shout! And secondly… while I will be on my best behaviour (what’s that, a free bar you say?? :)) it’s most likely all core content will follow first thing Friday morning, by 8am. Apols for any inconvenience. I’ll get some holding posts up in the early evening.  On Saturday… big race trends wise there’s the Victoria Cup from Ascot for me to apply my stats approach to, and also the odd nice race from Haydock, inc the Swinton Hurdle. Given my handicap hurdle form i think i’ll be leaving that well alone, but I may see what the stats/trends point to for interest. And of course I know many of you like using such ‘ways in’ to help land on your own bets. 

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips (complete) 

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

1.50 Chester- Reflektor – 1 point EW – 15/2 (bet365/BV) 7/1 (gen) UP

3.10 Worc-  King Cnut – 1 point EW – 8/1 (gen)

3.45 Worc- Mere Anarchy – 1 point EW –  13/2 (lad/Coral) 6/1 (gen) 2nd

That’s it for today, as of 08.06 

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

3.10 Worc – Diligent

A Honeyball Mares

4.15 Worc – Deja Vue (10/1< guide)

4.15 Worc – Lily The Pink (10/1< guide)

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Trainers to follow

5.20 Worc – Lake Washington

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)

3.20 Hunt – Fair Loch

 

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

4.45 Worc – Three Colours West

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW!

#1 Trainer Track Profiles: FLAT 2019  Yours HERE>>>

(the stats which underpin Section 1 … complete with a cover photo of Blessed doing her thing at Brighton) 

#2 Chester May Meeting: Trainer Pointers  READ HERE>>> 

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Chester May Meeting Day 2

‘Qualifiers’ from the report above…

2.25 – Circus Maximus

3.00 –

Drogon / Lolas Theme

Spirit Warning / Forseti

3.35  – Kew Gardens

4.05 – Rose Of Kildare

4.35 –

Frankadore

Lariat / Seeusoon

Gabrial The One (10/1<)

5.05 – Crownthorpe (10/1<)

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

24 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh had strong info for the 4:35 although you have one in this, West End Charmer unfortunately the price has gone now, but strongly fancied.
    Have a good day!

    vanesy 08/05/19 9:37 PM Reply


  • Have a great day Josh and the best of luck with your picks on course

    aaron l 08/05/19 10:23 PM Reply


  • Chester 2.25 and 3.35 cannot see past the two favs but no price and only a shade of evens if you double them so no bet in either as not enough runners ….no surprises there …..for any eachway…no bet both races as there will be better opportunities for profit in the future. Gd lck if playing.

    silver 09/05/19 12:38 AM Reply


  • Chester fancies (any selections will be late as possible with a view to any rain)
    1-50. Reflektor 8-1, Merhoob 20-1 just for a bit of change
    3-00. Lincoln Park 5-1 , could get the jump on the rest at the start and hold on
    4-35. Gabrial The One 7-1, Divine Gift 20-1 another for a bit of loose change
    5-05. Al Jellaby price is quickly going i presume somebody has tipped it was 8-1 when i first looked now 6-1

    Martin Whittle 09/05/19 2:12 AM Reply


  • today’s selections.
    Worcester.
    2-00. Anti Cool 8-1
    3-10. Red Devil Star 8-1
    4-45. Mead Vale 6-1 4 places
    all 1/2 pt ew

    i’ve got 2 for Wincanton tonight but only if ground softens , rain is forecast on and off all day

    Martin Whittle 09/05/19 6:53 AM Reply


    • just remembered i forgot to put up Aprils results.
      staked 84.5 pts , returns 86.81 pts , up 2.31 pts

      Martin Whittle 09/05/19 11:33 AM Reply


  • Sorry no write ups
    (FLAT TEST)
    (13:50
    REFLEKTOR 1pt win 9/1 gen
    GROWL 1pt win 10/1 gen)
    (15:00
    FORSETI 1pt win 14/1 gen
    DROGON 1pt win 14/1 gen)
    (16:35
    KATIESHIELDINLISA 1pt win 6/1 gen
    GABRIAL THE ONE 1pt win 7/1 gen)

    Hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    Stewart 09/05/19 8:24 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    H 3.55 – Doctor Haze on 2nd run @ 20
    H 4.25 – Belmont Park on 3rd run @ 13/2
    W 4.45 – Oakley Hall on 1st run @ 11
    Festival
    C 1.50 – Growl on 7th run @ 11
    W 4.45 – Lord Condi on 2nd run @ 15/2
    GL

    Titus 09/05/19 9:07 AM Reply


    • Hi Ken,
      I missed your post yesterday. I need to make more time to get some complete stats posted after losing a lot of data. There is decent profit to be had from NH runners and just backing 1st to 4th run reduces exposure somewhat and is still profitable.
      Every time I think of ditching the flat along comes a biggy although as a lot of them feature AW runs I think it may be more luck than a considered approach.
      Mike

      Titus 09/05/19 9:35 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, going to Chester myself today, only in the paupers end ha ha, ( Tatts, middle course) good luck with bets and have a good day, playing Spurs in final, another cracker last night.

    Brian Wright 09/05/19 9:20 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    4.35 Chester Katiesheidinlisa BOG 9/2
    5.05 Chester Crownthorpe BOG 5/2
    6.00 Chelmsford Masham Star BOG 4/1
    ELITE BETS
    5.20 Worcester Chivers BOG 4/1
    7.00 Chelmsford Fox Premier BOG 11/2
    NEW METHOD
    3.00 Chester Drogon BOG 12/1
    4.25 Hundigdon Vaxalco BOG 9/4
    6.00 Chelmsford Masham Star BOG 4/1
    6.30 Sunset Flash BOG 10/1
    7.00 Ritchie Valens BOG 4/1
    Colin

    cleafe 09/05/19 10:09 AM Reply


  • Only one HCP bet for today and beginning to think that I might have screwed the ‘safety valve’ down too far, but it could be just down to the general uncertainty that under pins everything we do. One thing is for sure is that not all courses are equal with some producing 3 or 4 times as many opportunities as others, so it could be back to too many bets this time next week. Either way I’m leaving it as it is cos the new novice season starts in 3 weeks and things will get busy for me doing them. The last thing I need is a screen full of HCP bets to deal with as well.

    Ches 3.00 Metatron…… HCP

    Are a few novice races happening tonight so be back with an update at 4.30.

    Tim Hanson 09/05/19 1:32 PM Reply


    • Nothing for tonight.

      Tim Hanson 09/05/19 4:59 PM Reply


  • Hi Mark C,

    Just wondering if you are going to be able to do any Chelmsford fancies for this evening. Appreciate the SBC is without Mr B but you seem to do pretty well yourself.

    Cheers

    Ben

    921389 09/05/19 2:20 PM Reply


    • Hi Ben, thanks for the shout out. Happy to share views on Chelmsford, just thought nobody would be listening now wingman GB has moved on 🙂

      Back at the end of this thread in around an hour.

      Mark Curtis 09/05/19 2:50 PM Reply


      • SBC CHELMSFORD BULLETIN

        Greetings Ben and anyone else punting at Chelmsford tonight. I was going to retire these AW musings now my good pal and expert George B has departed the site 🙁 which I am still very sad about. It will be more difficult to find the winners without his unique AW systems but here we go anyway. I’m happy to continue to post re the AW if anyone is interested but did not want to assume there was an audience.

        17.30 – much too hard, full of unexposed horses.

        18.00 – Obviously Margub is a strong favourite albeit drifting when I last checked. A 10lb rise is quite hefty but he may well be up to it. However, for fun, I will play Victory Wave and Masham Star against the fav.

        18.30 – I hate it when the big boys like Stoute and Gosden send runners to the AW as you never know if they’re here to win or to get fit for a turf target. So I will chance an EW bet on Coastline whose trainer/jockey are 40%win/56% place when teaming up over the last year.

        19.00 – too hard!

        19.30 – I cannot see Weekender losing this, if I was desperate for a bet I would put Higher Power into the straight forecast.

        20.00 – I think Daddy’s Daughter will take this but no bet for me at the price.

        20.30 – The most interesting race of the night for me. Zamjar won the race last year and is a worthy favourite but no fun at 5/2. As alternatives I like the chances of Poyle Vinnie and Miracle Works both returning to the AW. I also quite like the chances of Something Lucky to squeak a place.

        Well that’s it, not a great night’s betting card. Good luck if you play.

        Mark Curtis 09/05/19 3:32 PM Reply


        • Thanks Mark,

          Will always take an interest in your AW musings. Looks like tonight is a night for the shorties.

          Cheers

          Ben

          921389 09/05/19 3:37 PM Reply


        • Hi Mark
          Thanks for putting your Chelmsford views up.
          Stoute/Gosden feel they are here to win for tonight’s prize money is decent 2 races each worth £12,938 to the winner and another 2 races worth £9,704 to the winner and no doubt their horses could well go onto better things we shall see.
          Are your views based on stats ?
          Colin.

          cleafe 09/05/19 4:12 PM Reply


          • Hi Colin, thanks for that. Best leaving those races I think. My fancies are only stats -based where I quote the T/J stats, otherwise purely form, draw etc. All the best.

            Mark Curtis 09/05/19 4:17 PM Reply


        • Yes I enjoyed George’s remarkable volume of systems. What I particularly liked was performance per month of the year. Always framed something on the AW around your joint choices.

          Edward Crisp 09/05/19 4:13 PM Reply


          • Hi Edward, yes G’s systems were esoteric but extremely effective 🙂 Glad you found our joint musings useful, we did hit a few nice winners. Not sure how I will fare without him 🙁

            Mark Curtis 09/05/19 4:19 PM Reply


        • Agree with your sentiments about GB makes things tricky indeed…re the 17.30 will not be surprised if the odds on fav wins but is not backable at the price…. clocked 37.28 over 7f which is above average for the grade….Molivaliente clocked a smilar speed …just slighlty faster 37.39 mph over the 7f so may give the fav the heebie jeebies Seraphim clocked a slow 35.27 over just over 7f on tapeta in a slow time of 35.27 mph so not sure what to make of that speed as the race was run 6.78 seconds slower than standard so not sure I have that correct figure as the track may well have been running slower than I have allowed which would make a significant difference to the overall time…hope this helps with the 17.30.

          silver 09/05/19 5:00 PM Reply


          • Cheers Silver, your input always appreciated.

            Mark Curtis 09/05/19 5:13 PM Reply


            • Thanks …no probs took a look at the 19.00 Boerhan ran a comparable speed with the bottom weight The Trader but is a terrible race with slow donkeys and no each way value…I may risk .50p win only on The Trader so you can see no confidence as the adjusted speeds are not scientifically accurate!!!…Caution advised!

              silver 09/05/19 5:37 PM Reply


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