Free Daily Post: 07/05/19 (complete)

Wetherby ‘through the card’ notes

Some Wetherby notes for one of my members’ who’s off racing.. these quick flick throughs usually go one of two ways! 

Wetherby ‘through the card’

1.50 – Spice of Life – EW 7/1

Sea the stars filly, yard in form, don’t trek up here for nothing and trainer will want wins on the board soon with this one. Second run back after a break, back on turf, i’d like to think she’ll run her race and that should be good enough to place at worst against this lot. Market always the best guide in these races so dangers are obvious. Stone Mason seems short given Charlton is 0/29 in last 30 days. 

2.20 – to the bar! 

A pint of Guinness appears to have a strong chance in this.  On all known form the fav should hack up here, the second in doesn’t seem value, if you must, throw some change at some biggies but a race to sit out imo. 

2.50-  Be More  (Assembled for fun if that’s too short)

Any 3 YO that is fancied trained by Balding is to be strongly noted. He’s his strongest bunch of 3YO for some time, if not ever, if you believe what he says, which I will! Many of them in the King Power colours. So, based on work at home, he should know what he has with most of them, who they’ve been beating/travelling well against on the gallops etc. This one may need further but doesn’t look the strongest of races, Johnny G has a fancied one also but isn’t being supported as yet. Following the money in these races isn’t a bad tactic. She has the best form in this, her maiden working out very well, not beaten far by a recent listed winner who hacked up at Newmarket. If she’s got a good season ahead, she should be winning this. As she will get further I expect OM to be positive enough. 

I’d probably play him or leave the race. Palmer has an interesting one but yard are quiet ish, and he’s unraced so plenty of guesswork there. 

3.20 – Turanga Leela 14/1 / Landing Night 10/1

Turanga… the only habitual front runner on paper in this… she is drawn wide and the 5f here is just off the bend and you don’t have long to get a position. She needs to be fast away, which she usually is… she was running a good race LTO and may have needed it. She was badly hampered and the jockey appeared to just let her coast home after that. The run isn’t as bad as it appears on paper having watched it back. She should be leading this lot to the 4 pole, we shall see what happens after that. 

Landing Night… can be held up so may need some luck but the jockey barely moved on him 3 days back.. he was last off the bridle/jockey wasn’t moving when everyone else was scrubbing along, but these sprints are a game of fine margins…sadly for his jockey the horse hung to his left a tad, and he had a wall of horses in front of him, by the time he straightened him up, and found  gap, the race was effectively over, he just coasted home. Maybe nothing to it but he drops in class here and PJ is back on. The run two starts back was decent and the horse has won off 75 on turf so is looking well handicapped again. menzies is 4/15,5p all runners here in last year. An awkward draw but he’ll be dropped in anyway, fan out as they enter the straight, and then everything crossed, as he nabs the one above in the dying strides for a glorious 1-2!! He’s also clear top rated on Geegeez Speed ratings… which over 5f/5.5 is a simple system in itself which I think ticks along ok, low enough SR maybe but lands on some very tasty prices. It did well last year anyway. 

 

3.55 – Vive Le Difference (Nick’s Tip) 12/1

As is often the case during the week Nick didn’t have time for a write up/notes etc, given this isn’t a full time job for him! Slacker. 🙂 And I don’t know his reasoning by i’ll try and cobble something together, knowing how he thinks (some of the time!) 

The horse most likely needed the run LTO as he’s never won on debut before, and arguably the ‘wrong’ jockey was on, given Allan has been on for both his wins. He was keen there but travelled ok for 6f or so, before weakening. He’s probably the most versatile ground wise in this, and doesn’t mind Good/faster, nor softer if any rain does arrive. We probably need another season to judge but simply based on last year, he could well be a first half of the season horse. Or he was simply handicapped up to the hilt from Sept 18 onwards, up to OR 83. He’s now down to 76, which is the last mark he won off – and he did dot up there at Hamilton, in what was a golden spell of form. 

The horse also drops in class, his first run in a C5 since his first win in May 18. Plenty of his form has been working out well, including his 5th at Doncaster in Nov… the front three there were rated 84/90/90 and the trip was too short. He is still open to plenty of improvement as a 5YO and could have developed again over the winter. This is only the 17th run of his life, and looking for those improving 4 year olds / 5 year olds (esp in a 4yo+ race) is often the way to go imo. 

The top two look worth taking on… they are both unexposed, so no shock, but Balding’s hasn’t won a race yet, and Carroll’s has to prove his stamina – he may improve for the trip, but at 7/2 the pair I think you have to take them on with that profile, esp EW with 4 places generally. The rest of this field looks a mediocre bunch. 

The draw is a niggle – he’ll have to start well and try and get an ok position, but he can be patiently ridden, and those coming from nearer the back do well over this CD. Or they may be more aggressive, but given how keen he was LTO i doubt they’d want to rush him out the stalls and light him up without cover. 

He looks solid here, if running his race he won’t be far away at all. 

 

4.25 – Evie Speed EW  10/1

I’ve kept this simple… I homed in on the horse who’s trainer is in the best form… well with Geegeez 14/30 jumping out at me… Jedd is 3/14,5p in last 14 days, trainer/jockey are 5/10,6p in the last 30. It’s a 3 YO handicap – I mean looking at form and trying to guess who’s improved most over the winter etc is a bit pointless in my view, at this stage of the season. Hard to know who’s trained on etc. Anyway this one is open to improvement and ran well first time up last year. The yard can ready them and having raced in Class 2s last year, this is the easiest handicap she’s run in. IF she’s fit, which i’ll assume she is given the yard can ready them, she should be bang there in this C4. 

 

4.55 – time for another drink!

hmmm… maybe time for a whisky! 

 

5.25 – Apache Blaze – EW 13/2

This one is down into a class 6 for the first time since his only career win, at Notts over 10f. He ran well two starts back at Donny in a big field C5, under this pilot, and a repeat of that will put him bang there in this line up, to my eyes anyway. They do discard the CP and we shall see what affect that has but LTO was his first run at Lingfield and given his form on galloping/flat tracks, I can overlook that, with it’s sweeping downhill bend etc, maybe he just didn’t handle it, or the surface. Anyway, his mark is no problem and there should be more to come from him on turf this season. I thought he looked solid. EW, as the fav does have a solid chance also down in class, albeit his last race hasn’t worked out well. Happy to take him on but with EW cover. 

 

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One Response

  1. GOLF BETS
    Did not watch any golf last week Patrick Reed appeared to be going well until he was caught up in the delay and went backward after the resumption, and big Phil missed the cut.

    For me this weeks tournament is uninspiring and nearly had no bet,so will see what will happen.
    AT & T Byron Nelson
    Marc Leishman 1 point ew 28/1 1/5 8 PP, BFSB, 25/1 1/5 8 BO, 25/1 1/5 7 CO
    Plays windy conditions so well having finished 2nd,after leading for the first couple of rounds here last year and i did put him up here last year, so hopefully he can go one better.
    Keith Mitchell 1 point ew 40/1 1/5 6 Unibet, 888, 33/1 1/5 7 CO
    Made his course debut last year and he finished 3rd, 2019 going well have won the Honda Classic and a couple of top ten finishes including Quail Hollow.
    No more bets
    Colin

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