Members Daily Post: 08/05/19 (tipsx1/complete)

daily Tips x1, Flat Test x3, / Nicks tips x1, Section 1 (complete), test zone, Chester pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kelso 

2.45 – Aint My Fault (nov hncps)  H3 5/1 

 

Fontwell

5.10 – 

Nocturnal Myth (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+ 3/1 S3A

Test Ride (hncp h 5 yrs, +m class move) ES+ 25/1 S2A S3A

My Lady Grey (m runs)  I3 14/1 S2 S5 

6.15 – Mystical Knight (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+ 4/1 S4A

7.15 – 

Magical Thomas (hncp h 5 yrs) w1ES+H1 I1 5/2 S3A#

Soulsaver (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+H3 15/2 S3A

 

Newton Abbot 

3.45 – Sizing Platinum (m runs)  H3 13/2 

 

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FLAT 

Chester

None. 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/55, 15p +0.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

 

Daily Tips

4.45 Newton A 

Minella On Line – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV) 9/1 (gen) 

that’s all for daily tips, as of 08.52, write up on the way

I thought on his day this one was the best chaser in this race, on what they’ve achieved/form, and given his profile I’m assuming he’s here to run the race of his life and won’t need the run. In any case I thought at 10s/9s he was worth a poke, albeit any market weakness would be a mild concern!

He is one where you want a price as he can throw in the odd howler at his fences, and clearly he’s had issues given how lightly raced he is for his age. However, his run LTO was decent form, as good as Chic Names win two starts back, if not a tad better. He jumped well there having been held up and was staying on all the way. He’ll appreciate this 2f further. Treackle Tart is decent and he had Classic Ben 2L behind who’d go on to win that decent enough chase at Sandown. Militarian, another in form horse who’s won since was another place back and Valadom keeps running his race. IF he repeats that run/level of form, he’ll be bang there over the last in this line up and he won’t mind the softening ground. If you look further back he has some decent form and and been highly tried. He’d have gone close at Fakenham but for sprawling on landing, the front two miles clear when both coming down, and he wasn’t done with there. He has some RPRs over fences in the 140s, inc that run, which is superior by some way to plenty in here. With the jockey’s 5lb, and given how he’s hacked up off 126 previously, i’ve no doubts he’s well handicapped, so that won’t be an excuse. The yard are in form – 3/10,4p the last 14 days, the jockey knows the horse and he’s a decent record fresh. His best runs often come on his first after a break or 2nd run. When you have a horse who clearly doesn’t stand too much racing, you really do want them ready to run their race first time up. He can also race prominently and they may be more aggressive. I just hope he jumps as LTO as he just gallops and gallops. The fact he has form around Fakenham is a positive, so there won’t be any excuse for not handling Newton Abbot. At the prices I thought he was by far and away the most interesting.

Chic Name is the main danger I think, provided those Ayr efforts haven’t bottomed him. But if he repeats that run two starts back he will  be in there pitching. He felt around the right price, esp as he’s 0/8,0p when carrying more than 11-00 on his back. He isn’t the biggest and carrying weight is a question for him. It’s also an odd jockey booking given he’s never ridden the horse and I think it’s his first ride for the yard. He is competent so it’s not a general concern, but more of a question at these odds. Having a jockey who knows the horse, esp over fences, can only be a positive. I suppose his chance is obvious and he went well for a long way in the Scot National, where I backed him. He may be worth a saver of sorts but I had a couple of niggles at around 4s but of those at single figure odds he’s the only one i’d want to be on.

You Say What looks short enough for one who’s yet to convince going left handed (0/10,3p, his chasing efforts not the best, jumped out to his right last time LH over fences) and he had a hard enough race LTO. He also sports the blinkers, and they’re not for decoration. I didn’t think he was value but he does arrive in form and clearly stays. I was happy to take him on, and Perform at 5/1 who is sadly rarely performs as yet, over fences anyway. Now 0/7 and he PU when last seen. He just has too many question for me at 5s, for all he has ability and the yard are red hot. Dicky also takes over for first time in a while. I can see the case, but not at his price.

Thumb Stone Blues is unexposed but seemed about right for one yet to win over fences and his recent efforts raise questions over his attitude. If the visor works he could be a danger to all but he’s been lazy/idle on recent starts and to my eyes dogged it in LTO when in a battle. The yard are going well but he’s been off 281 days , albeit he’s won off 218 so maybe that’s not a concern, albeit chasing takes more out of you than hurdles. Aubusson is in form but i’m not sure how good that form is, I think there are better horses in this and softening ground is a question for him. But in form chasers are always to be feared. Gardiners Hill arrives in some sort of form but his RPRs are not the best compared to some of these making me think he doesn’t have the ability if a few run their race. He is 0/5,0p OR 111+ also. It’s not impossible plenty of these fall in a hole though and he just runs his race. I was happy to leave as thought there would be a classier horse or two in this. I was happy to leave the other two.

So, fingers crossed the selection is here to run his race. His profile / record fresh / trainer form would suggest he should be, and he’s got more than enough ability to beat these. I just hope he jumps to his best and runs his race. He’ll outrun these odds if he does.

 

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Flat TEST 

2.25 C – Mehdaayih – 1 point win – 3/1 (gen)

3.00 C – Angel Alexander – 1 point win – 4/1 (gen)

4.35 C – Pass The Ginn – 1 point win – 6/1 (gen)

that’s all for this test, 09.33 

A promising start for my Flat tipping test where I simply use any of my stats efforts (big meeting notes/trends shortlists etc) to home in on some fancies. We shall see how they do this season. These three all hit one stat or another from the report below in section 4.

Mehdaayih … Johnny G is in decent form, he reports that this has been the plan for this filly for some time, she arrives in form, looks progressive and looks the one to beat I think. Her last run on RPR/TS figures was her best to date and by some way, and looks very good against many of today’s opponents. Such figures are important esp when looking at LTO as you could automatically assume it’s a two runner race and hard to weigh up, so they help put some meat on the form bones. I think the ground should be ok and she steps up again in trip, which could suit. Beckett’s hasn’t had a run and has a penalty, and that may catch her out against race fit rivals. Secret Thoughts has a question over the going and the step up in trip is just too severe for me, from 7 to 11.5 f or so. She may relish both of course and i’ll be more concerned if the money comes into that magic 3/1< for this yard’s runners here. JG has won this race twice in recent years, inc with Enable two years ago. I doubt this one is up to that level, but you never know!

Angel Alexander… one from the Dascombe micro here. There should be plenty more to come from this one this season and given the stats i’d like to think most of his runners are here to run their race/will be tuned up. The yard are in form, he makes handicap debut, is well drawn and has form with cut in the going. He also stays 6f which may be no bad thing, provided he can lay up in a prominent position. Given jockey bookings it could well be the other Dascombe runner is the one to be on but i’m sticking with the micro. Clearly not impossible to win from stall 5!

Pass The Ginn… maybe he’ll be outclassed by the top two in the market here but I thought this CD winner may be worth a go. As with most of these they are open to further progress but he comes here in form, and fit. That last run in a C2 was decent given he flew from the back, which is hard to do over Sandown’s 5f, and he may have just tired late on. The three horses around him there were rated in the 90s. I’d like to think he’s well handicapped, just whether something may have more in hand/can show it in today’s conditions. Softer ground isn’t a problem, he’s a CD winner and stays a tad further. He will appreciate this step back up in trip and Murphy is back on. Trainer/jockey have a great record around here and in recent days. Clearly from stall 9 it will be tougher but not impossible. His chance could rest on the first 1f or so, and what position he can get. On paper at least there’s loads of pace,and it’s not impossible there’s a pace collapse late on. I may well have picked the wrong one from the three below but he’s the biggest price and if he was drawn 1-4 I suspect he’d be much shorter. I’ll take a chance.

 

3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

5.05 Chester – Humble Gratitude – 1 point EW – 14/1 (gen) (1/5 4 places WH/BV/PP/BetF/Boyle) UP -2

that’s all for Nick’s Tips today, as of 08.06

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide)

7.45 F – Foxy Lass

A Honeyball Mares 

5.45 F – Lily The Pink (5/1<)

8.15 F  – Marilyn Monroe

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide)

3.55 K – Alto Esqua

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

4.45 NA – Vice Et Vertu

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

4.25 K – Monsieur Co

LTO winning trainers 

2.45 K- Flowery

Jockeys/Chasers

3.45 NA – Saintemilion

4.45 NA – Thumb Stone Blues

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.20 K – Pixiepot

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

NEW!

#1 Trainer Track Profiles: FLAT 2019  Yours HERE>>>

(the stats which underpin Section 1 … complete with a cover photo of Blessed doing her thing at Brighton) 

#2 Chester May Meeting: Trainer Pointers  READ HERE>>> 

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Chester May Meeting Day 1 

‘Qualifiers’ from the report above…

2.25 

Secret Thoughts (3/1<)

Fanny Logan (4/1<)

Mehdaagih (4/1<)

3.00 

Angel Alexander

3.35 

Norway (3/1<)

4.05 

Guandi / Artistic Streak

Damon Runyon (4/1<)

4.35 

Wild Edric

Cosmic Law (10/1<)

Pass The Ginn

5.05 

Ginn In The Inn / Penwortham (both 10/1<)

 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. (FLAT TEST)
    15:00 Chester

    (SOCIETY QUEEN 8/1 gen 1pt win)
    (Speed, draw and jockey a bonus, trainer is adept at Chester, bags of ability and definite value at 8/1 and if you can get bigger fair play!)
    (SHECANBOOGIE 8/1 gen 1pt win)
    (Trainer has a habit of winning this race, top jockey at course, another with bags of ability, value at 9`s if you can get it)

    16:35 Chester
    (COSMIC LAW 6/1 gen 1pt win)
    (top jockey on board, good draw, gelded, headgear left off, value at 6/1)
    (WILD EDRIC 9/2 gen 1pt win)
    (course and distance winner, jockey 3 wins in last 11 rides, has speed in abundance, really enjoys this tight track, has the draw, if he is in front 3 turning for home, he wins!!)

    As usual hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Brian As Josh will tell you when you support Liverpool there’s some lows but gosh there are some amazing highs and tonight was right up there

      1. As I said just brilliant, I mean I thought we would win tonight but in all honesty not do enough to go through, amazing

  2. This reds fan needs a lie down. But I’m staring down the bottom of a few empty pint glasses and now a rum and coke. I’ll be bright eyed to attack tomorrow soon enough!! 🙂 The occasional reds love in is permitted albeit that’s probably enough given the non reds fans present. And well, we haven’t won anything yet! 🙂

  3. As Martin hasn’t put it up yet, I will 🙂

    Karl Burke at Southwell
    7.05 Sylviacliffs 7/1 1pt win

  4. posting now as no time later in the morning. 13.50.. Chester. Top Buck each way against the fav Show Me Show Me and Electric Ladyland….as both have tricky draws to overcome…Electric Ladyland has the speed but a lot depends on the way the race is run so at the prices the each way poke has to be Top Buck from a better draw. Show Me Show Me has clocked 37.97 over 5f..Electric Ladyland 38.95 mph and Top Buck 38.24 mph ove 5f …Meehan’s horses generally improve from the first run and with a better draw than the other two that may just be the deciding factor.

    Chesham 14.25 Chester…..my two will be Mehdaayih w/o and Fanny Logan …the latter is backable e/w 6/1. Red Hot ran a fast 8f at Newcastle clocking 37.64 mph and if the horse has the stamina to see out the extra 3f 75 yds may be value at 20/1 in a higher grade. gd lck with whatever you decide to back.

  5. Chester 8th May Lily Agnes 5f Conditions Stakes
    4.25 Show Me Show Me, Album, Kidda, Dr Simpson, , Great Dame
    3.75 Top Buck, Chasanda, Lexi The One, Electric Ladyland
    3 Iva Reflection
    With Show Me, Show Me drawn 8, Electric Ladyland 10, Kidda 9, this could well be between Great Dame 3 and Album 2
    I liked Album a lot on debut, but he was a bit fat. He has been slowly away on both his starts and if that happens here it is probably game over. However with Frankie up this is less likely and at 11/1 from the inside berth (draw 1 is a non runner) he is fantastic value. Of those drawn wide maybe Dr Simpson, with the maestro of the quick exit Richard Kingscote up, might sneak a place. Great Dame and Top Buck possibly the biggest dangers.
    1pt ew Album 12/1.
    Hugh

  6. today’s selections.
    Chester.
    2-25. Vivid Diamond 12-1, will handle cut in the ground and lto’s 2nd looks a good bit of form, holds entries to Oaks and Ribblesdale.
    3-00. Dave Dexter 12-1 a C&D and also Listed winner any more rain will help looked the ew value.
    Kelso.
    3-20. Pixiepot 12-1 4 places, back in C4 again won’t mind more rain, was staying on lto so hopefully upped in trip should be fine.
    all 1/2 pt ew

    1. one to add.
      Newton Abbot.
      5-20. Maguires Glen 8-1 4 places, drops into a C5 and even off top weight shouldn’t finish out of first 4 unless he’s lost all of his ability, probably famous last words.

      1. Hop you had a good day at Wetherby! Between us we got the 123 in that sprint handicap, hopefully your Midgley pick paid for the day. Frustrating for my picks, 7 of them, 5 in the places inc 3 seconds! Maybe i’ll make an EW player yet haha

        1. posted yesterday, backed the 1,2,3 in the 3-20 DIDN’T do the tricast what a plonker, nice day out though only 1 winner but 4 places so came home with my wad intact 🙂

  7. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    No bet
    NEW METHOD
    7.45 Fontwell Lee Side Lady BOG 11/4
    Colin.

  8. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    K 2.10 – Forbidding on 2nd run @ 33
    Festival/BRT
    K 3.55 – The Wicket Chicken on 1st run @ 3
    K 4.25 – McGroarty on 1st run @ 11/10
    N 2.35 – Lovenormoney on 3rd run @ 14
    3m+
    K 3.55 – Lowanbehold on 7th run @ 8
    N 4.45 – Calin Du Brizais on 4th run @ 12
    GL

    1. Hi Mike. I gave up on these a while back due to the large number of qualifiers on some days. Are they still making a profit?

  9. Only 2 for Chester today purely because of the draw. Anything drawn above 7 makes a stonking loss for me.

    Ches’ 3.00 Leonis Dream……. HCP (No Fav’s… is currently 3rd Fav’).
    Ches’ 4.04 Artistic Streak……. 12.0

    Back at 4.30 with an evening update.

    1. First one goes in. Dropped in behind the leaders, you knew coming off the bend it was a winner. Cheers Tim

    2. Nice one – thanks Tim – feels like the handicap system is like one of those giant engines gradually moving up through the gears…..

      1. Thanks for the compliments. Is still early days but I’m reasonably confident for the longer term. Unfortunately there’s no more for today so will have to wait a little longer to find out.

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