Members Daily Post: 06/05/19 (tipx1/complete)

Tip x1, Section 1 (x1), test zone, Nick’s Tips x1

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Kempton

4.05 – Malangen   (micro class) w1  w2 H1 I1 3/1 

4.40 – Solar Impulse   (all Hc’s)  w1 H3 10/3 

 

Warwick

3.15 –

Court Affairs   (m class) 16/1 S2A

Boethius   (m LTO) 20/1 S2A

3.50 –

Tikkinthebox   (m age) 14,30 7/1 

Blairs Cove   (m dist) 14,30  7/4 

4.25 –

Point Taken   (m dist) 14,30 7/4 

Passing Dream   (m class and age) H3 I3 11/2 

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FLAT

Bath

2.15 – Butterfield   (4yo+, m going) I3 G3 11/2 

5.10 –

Coronation Cottage   (m dist and -class)  w1  ES+ H1 13/8 S3A

Mrs Todd   (4yo+,m age) 9/1 

 

Beverley

3.40 – Daseen   (m class) 10/1 

4.15 –

Kharbetation   (all Hc’s) G3 15/2 

Breathable   (m age)  ES+ I3 10/1 S3A

4.50 – Poets Dawn   (m age)  ES+ 16/1 S3A

 

Windsor

2.35 – Blackheath   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I1 G3  7/2 S3A# S4 

3.45 – Grapevine   (all Hc’s) 11/4 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/55, 15p +0.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/86,22p, -53, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

Daily Tips

3.30 Kempton – Lord Bryan – 1 point win – 9/2 (bet365/Lad/BV/Coral) 4/1 (others) PU, well not sure what went wrong there, dropped out quickly as if amiss. The fav  was going to hack up but PU also, hope both ok. Up to that point it had looked like an error taking him on, the Hobbs horse taking advantage.

as of 09.14, that’s all for today…

I thought 9/2 was a couple of points too big for this one and he should be closer to the fav, price wise. The yard have hit some good form in recent weeks, as they usually do at this time of year, and this one is unexposed over 3m. He has shaped a few times as if he’s well worth another crack at it (esp on Good), and has placed over 26f in his hurdling days, in soft, running on. The hope is that this trip brings about some improvement and I do think there could be a bit more to come. He’s a sound jumper and Sean may try and dictate here, with Harry, with a bit more competition, happy to sit off him. His light weight may help come the end and he arrives in form after winning LTO, where he wasn’t stopping come the end but wasn’t really extended. The yard do well with LTO winners and I did think he was overpriced.

I may well regret taking on the fav who won on very fast ground LTO, so fast it was a course record. It’s hard to know what to make of that race given it was a match and the 2nd horse never jumped, and he coasted home. He did win well enough at Ludlow a few starts back but that looked weak enough and didn’t have a Lord Bryan type horse in it. The hope then is that he will be under firmer pressure here at some point and it should take more winning than LTO and that in a battle over the last few fences his jumping will come under pressure- of course I may have that all wrong and I won’t fall off my seat if he wins it well, esp if mine doesn’t get home and improve for the trip as I hope, esp on this better ground. I’d like to think it’s between these two. The Hobbs horse can be held up off the pace and hit a fence. I think he improved at Ludlow for the slightly softer ground which just slowed everything down. We were on one or both of those wins, I forget. He’s had a couple of tough races since and at 9/2 I felt that was about right. I’m not sure Dicky’s style will suit him, they may get out of sync at the odd fence at this pace. Possibly. If he returned to that Ludlow form he may go well but I like the other two. The D Dennis horse ran well on his return LTO but is 0/5,50p RH all runs, and he is 0/23, OR 121+, a few places though but may need to come down the ratings a tad more. he’s also 0/21, 7p above class 4. I can leave him at 6s. If the old boy wins this then so be it, my new rule of not backing 11 year old+ will catch me out every now and then, but long term just leaving these exposed boys/older legs is the right way forward in these races. In any case he hasn’t got within 25L of anything on his last 3 starts and i’m not sure 7s is generous enough even in a race like this.

Maybe a fun 1 to beat 5 forecast/reverse also, if I’ve got this assessment correct, but I think LB is overpriced and will certainly give the fav more of a race than LTO. It could be he’s just ultra progressive and thrown in still (his RPR would suggest as much) but we shall see.

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3.Nick’s Tips

15.45 Windsor  – Mr Scaramanga- 1pt e/w 14/1 1pt e/w 14/1  (9/1 gen as of 8am)  2nd  +2.5 / +1

That’s all for Monday, as of 8pm.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19

Jockeys/Chaser

3.30 K – Lord Bryan / Tommy Silver

4.40 K – Dandridge

LTO winning trainers

3.30 K- Lord Bryan

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best)

3.30 K Tommy Silver

3.50 W – Statistical

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. And they think Game of Thrones is ruthless. Nothing like a few losing bets to get the knives sharpened. Oh human nature ( DA da da Da DAA DA smiley)

      1. I’ve spent Sunday sharpening my own knives for personal use haha. My Opus Dei kit has broken, new one on order. Maybe I should try some meditation /hypnosis given how much this game is in the mind.

        1. People on this site should stop hankering to follow others and just use all the very valuable opinions and analysis to make their OWN minds up.

          Oh lawks I’m turning into Chubnut 🙂

  2. Newmarket – Review of Hot Streak 5f Maiden Stakes won by Threat 5th May 2019
    I was travelling so unable to preview this race, but had I done so I would have probably sided with the top rated Electrical Storm who I had seen at Newmarket on debut…
    Electrical Storm – Probably a bit better over further running on well, got to the front then swamped by Well Of Wisdom 84
    However when seen in the flesh https://imgur.com/a/2VmIr7C
    It was a different story. Although all the runners looked good, Threat was a size bigger than anything else with a lovely rangy confirmation. Even though I had rated Electrical Storm 84 on debut it was easy to see Threat being a threat as long as he did not get to het up in the prelims which he looked on the verge of doing as can be seen in the pictures.
    In the event he jumped well from the gates and never really looked under too much pressure. He is of a size and scope that he could easily be listed class or above and may well be a Coventry contender.
    Threat – Strong, tall, rangy, may still need to grow into his frame as he still seems a bit gawky. The way in which he got this done despite seeming green beforehand suggests he could be very good. 100
    Electrical Storm – not sure that he is any better than the rating given on debut but an extra point as he is a tryer. 85
    Path Of Thunder – Decent type, green on debut and unusually for an Appleby runner needed the education. 80
    Spanish Dancer – Well made animal but not more than 85% fit here. Poor picture makes him look more downhill than he was. Plenty more to come. Showed good early speed than tired quite rapidly as he was entitled to do given his tubbiness. Might be as good as the second and third nto. 83
    Hugh

    1. Morning Hugh,

      As it happens I backed threat on the strength of what Richard Hannon said in the press. I generally try to take on horses that didn’t win FTO (albeit Electrical Storm was beaten in a good race).

      I find your analysis fascinating, if you don’t mind me asking, could you elaborate a little on your ratings? İs there a maximum figure? What do they comprise of? İs it purely a rating of the horses physical appearance or also that of the performance in the race too?

      Many thanks,
      Lee

      1. Lee, the post race rating is my best estimate of what OR I think they will achieve as a 2yo. The figure is derived from a combination of my view of the animal’s confirmation in terms of size, build, athleticism and geometry (the relation of each of the parts to all the others) plus togetherness which is a combination of the above with their mental state.
        I learnt this by way of lots of email exchanges from the guy who wrote the B2yor website. I used to send him all my paddock photos from around 2013 until he suspended work on the website. Here is the link.
        http://www.b2yor.co.uk/B2yoR_PRev_Explain.htm
        Everything that I try to use is in here. He gives an explanation of the ratings scale as well.
        The one vital thing that Nick always impressed upon me was that one always had to ‘put a number on it’. It is difficult at first but the more animals one sees the easier it becomes to recognise the types. This allows objective comparisons of animals from different races before the handicapper has given them a number and opens up the punting opportunities. I still make lots of mistakes
        Hugh

        1. Hi Hugh anything in the novices races at Wetherby tomorrow you’ve looked at that might be worth a small punt ?

          1. Hi Martin, I did not your ‘through the card’ request – pop a comment up on tomorrow’s blog when I put it up, otherwise it’s likely i’ll just forget!!
            Josh

          2. They’re for 3yos. I’d have a look at them if I was there but otherwise I don’t get involved.
            Hugh

  3. Today’s selections.
    only had a chance to look at Beverley so far
    4-15. Breathable 9-1, the fav Ventura Gold looks vulnerable up in weight and distance and selection has c&d form and is back to winning mark.
    4-50. Moxy Mares 16-1, looked like he needed the run lto and should strip fitter any overnight rain wont be a bad thing either should be right in the mix if reproducing Haydock form.
    both 1/2 pt ew

    1. nothing else today except a few small ew’s (not selections)
      Jimmybarker58’s tip Englishman 14.35 Windsor 16/1 looks interesting
      at Warwick Whin Park 25-1 3-15 and Atlantic Storm 12-1 4-25
      over at the Curragh Titanium Sky 8-1 3-35 and Verhoyen 12-1 4-45
      small ew singles and a tiny ew lucky 31

  4. April totals, will put up National Hunt stats first, then the flat test.

    70 selections 7 wins 5 places
    SP + profit / – loss
    + 12.03 pts

    EP / advertised + profit / – loss
    + 17.50 pts

    So, as I would say season ended Saturday 27th April 2019.
    Final Nationa Hunt season totals are.

    311 selections 42 wins 12 places
    EP / advertised + profit / – loss
    + 115.75 pts
    SP + profit / – loss
    + 8.53 pts

    (FLAT TEST) April totals

    15 selections 2 wins
    EP / advertised + profit / – loss
    + 5.00 pts
    SP + profit / – loss
    +0.50 pts

    I know it seems as though the form has dipped within the final couple of months and I feel overall I maybe did lose a bit of focus though the transitional jumps/flat period, we shall see how my flat form does.
    Emotionally, it has been a right roller coaster, some of the assessments I give may have some shaking their heads (Eh Josh? ),but, it is my way of looking at the horses in question, it is not hunches, but, hours of watching horses over the years, knowing how trainers operate, with a little bit of luck maybe thrown in and above all, one piece of information I will impart for free, getting value..I never really understood that word till embarking on this journey over the current National Hunt Season. It is hard to impart that knowledge… I went 26 selections at one point throughout the season without a winner…That for your average punter would mean that they would give up, but, I knew my selection process wasn`t flawed, just when I thought “Sod it I must be doing something wrong, I will have a look at my selection process! “.
    I then had 2 winners at 16/1 and 15/2, thus cancelling out the previous losing run, but, emotionally it was horrendous. Anyone who selects horses, or, who has done experiments like this on a season by season basis will know what I am on about, but, until you do it, you can`t impart into words what that means!
    I would say try it, you will enjoy it and I know people go on about a bank etc, what I would say is, put aside money solely for the purpose of betting, if you lose it, do not go using money from other sources, it then becomes a need rather than a want and that is dangerous territory. If the need outweighs the want then you will win nothing and it is no fun anymore, that I have learnt from a very early age. At the end of the day I did this for a bit of fun and will do so again as I did thoroughly enjoy it! As I have said numerous times, conversations with everyone on here has made this possible and special mention goes to Josh, Nick, both Martins, Colin and of course Chubnut…some of there musings and help have left me in a better place as a punter! Long may that continue.
    I will Copy this over to the post tomorrow, if Josh will let me, as it may get lost in translation with all the comments on here.
    All the best and let`s keep Racing to Profit!!!!!

    1. (i’ll post my reply from yesterday for discussion purposes)

      Hi Stewart, thanks for that,

      Those results are interesting, (and very good profit obv!) and for me show the fine margins when playing in the odds range we do – if, and we both agree, I think the odds we approach is the right way long term, but god it can/will be painful at times!

      +115 points is a very good jumps season, twice that of some services I know over the jumps season – the trick, one i’m yet to master, is the consistency.

      IF you keep that win strike rate around as now.. 13%… you will hit a few -26, and over a larger sample at some point may hit 40-55… that’s just the maths, and not much we can do about it! Albeit those % figures over large samples, 1000 bets, so 3 full jumps seasons or so – but in next 2/3 years, at that win %, you may hit a run like that. That’s the tough bit. I’ve hit a bit worse, wonderful!

      The win/place% is fascinating, and again gets to that fine margins. You must look in a similar way to me in that the win/place isn’t high enough to justify EW betting I don’t think! We must have ‘win only/out run odds’ value eyes on.

      Your win/place is 18%. My win/place on my big race this year is 25%… (as I try to cling onto something and make myself feel better!) now i’m just not landing on enough winners. In part that may be luck given races we play in, as well as the obvious flaws… but last year, i’m sure I was a similar win/place%, but so so many more were winning 3x/4x at times in the hot spell. That’s the fine margins I think, as well as just needing to improve. Maybe when that gets to 300 odd bets, it will have corrected itself!
      I find all of that fascinating, but the point is those runs will happen, just have to try and battle through them mentally.

      Keep up the great work and intrigued to see how the flat goes,
      best
      Josh

  5. Something to read , RT by a few people i follow on twitter… this is a fascinating read of the life of a pro gambler, on a scale which is eye-watering… what a life… the holy grail!

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

    And the academic paper mentioned within, which i’ll have a flick through, some of you maths brain boxes will enjoy this…
    https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/decision/1994-benter.pdf

    1. Thanks for the post Josh..great read and begs the question how can the individual punter compete ? Or , more to the point, turn a profit?….rhetorical question only..no answer required!

  6. COLINS BETS
    Windsor
    2.00 Mooroverthebridge BOG 11/1
    5.30 Valentino Sunrise BOG 11/2
    Bath
    2.15 Agent Gibbs BOG 6/1
    5.10 Powerful Dream BOG 6/1
    5.45 Brother Bentley BOG 10/3
    ELITE BETS
    5.10 Bath Fareeq BOG 6/1
    5.45 Bath Cobweb Catcher BOG 7/2
    NEW METHOD
    3.15 Warwick Steel Express BOG 12/1
    4.25 Warwick Mauricio BOG 3/1
    Colin

  7. Having heeded the advice of several members about betting the night before, I decided not to snap up the 14/1 which was readily available about Mr Scaramanga last night and wait until the market had formed this morning. I am now left with the choice of backing it at 8/1 or leaving it alone. Any advice?

    1. hmm. that’s a tough one… 6 point difference on the limit of acceptance maybe, unless Nick’s value eyes are super charged with that one and 8s is still value, which is could be. I don’t know what the correct answer is to that, I got on at 10s around 8 ish with PP but no bog, which I was just about happy with. He may drift out again.I mean if you have numerous accounts all still alive and well, the betting or not betting the evening before is a tricky one- I think it must play some part in the life of an account long term, given evening before bookies can’t be as sure if odds are wildly off etc until more market activity, and if constantly smashing SP with evening before betting I think it must make you come under the spot light – but that discussion was from anecdotal experience- in the end if you’re beating SP enough, they’re going to get us one way or another whatever time we bet I suspect.
      So, that’s not really a helpful answer I know, whatever happens from example to example you’re going to be happy at a dodge or annoyed if he wins. Whatever approach, maybe a case of being consistent in terms of the % below advised price you’re happy to accept. As a halfway house, I suppose always an option of setting a min BFSP you’re happy to wager at – but of course no place element, unless using place market.
      Josh

    2. Bet overnight till you are either severely restricted or closed then join the hoards trying to make a crust on Betfair against superior bettors, sophisticated bots and 5% commission.

      1. Ah you’re in a cheery mood today Chubnut haha.
        I’d like to think making a profit without BOG is possible long term, like the good old days?? So will be a case of taking prices no BOG, on day or taking a price on BF when liquidity etc and making judgement around advised prices. And there’s always the shops when we reach those days of last resort!
        Josh

    3. Hi Johnny, this is were you have to do some digging, do you think Mr Scaramanga is value at 8/1 ?, I will tell you what I think but I’m in the same position as you. should have backed it last night.
      Plus points as I see it, Jockey upgrade from most runs this season, dropping down to this grade for the first time since Dec 16. Good or better ground are fine, Trainer form ok.
      Minus points as I see it, Never won beyond a mile, no course form, has never won going right handed, has never won on turf.
      Generally points, The owner has a runner in the following race is he just having a day out, A trainer from North Yorkshire has a runner in the race and it’s his only runner at the meeting, the form of the other runners in the race is poor in my opinion.

      I can see it placing at best, but that’s just my opinion and at the moment I couldn’t tip a wheelbarrow that’s why I don’t put my tips up very often.

      1. Yep Greg, I think if you’re following someone it’s best to not try and unpick or support the tip, in terms of deciding whether to follow… well that’s just an opinion – may be best to have a systematic approach to the price difference, won’t back below % drop from advised.
        I look at many tips etc on here, plenty from Nick, plenty from Stewart – and I think they’re placing at best! And, they bolt up at good odds, leaving me to trawl back through the profile to see what I missed/or what I was lacking in approach.
        Your subjective thoughts on a horse, if following a ‘tipster’ shouldn’t come into it when deciding staking etc , as that’s not the point. In my view anyway.

        Having said that.. the horse has won on turf, at Brighton back in the day… and the other way to look at it is to say that he’s unproven over the trip – only 3rd run of his life beyond 8f I think, and it could be, aged 5 now, that he’s more mature and on turf, it’s what he needs now – I can see the thinking at what was 10s+, esp if you then take a view as to the opposition etc. Yard are in form, and bar is juvenile days, this is the easiest turf race he’s contested in by quite some way having been in competitive C2s/Listed and even Group races.

        Anyway, those thoughts are irrelevant – it is good fun to look privately at peoples thoughts and come to conclusions if you wish, but as we delved into a similar area before – more a tone of enquiring, in public at least, why X likes horse X, rather than openly stating why you may not like it 🙂 There’s always method to everyones madness on these pages!

        1. Thanks guys, that is very helpful. My approach is very simple, if I am following a tipster I back his selections without really looking at the whys and wherefores. Hence I have gone in at 8/1 BOG (with a small “boost” from WH).
          As I still have numerous accounts all with BOG (I am clearly not winning enough!) I have pretty much decided to go down the Chubnut route and continue with night before betting for as long as I am allowed. I am a relatively small player and try to spread it around so I might just get away with it.

          1. yep, sounds good… the one thing I would add, is never take stand-out price… Nick ensures that when posted at least 3 main bookies have the price etc – I do think that , lets say… all bookies are 10/1, but Paddy Power are 11s/12s… well if you’re diving in at that stand out price, esp evening before, and certainly before 9pm, you’re asking for a spotlight to be shone on your account activity! That may be nonsense but it makes logical sense in my head. Most of Nick’s in evening will be around 9pm weekdays, so not a case of snaffling prices at 6pm/when markets just formed – that’s not a great way for account activity. Sometimes I don’t think it’s even winning that matters- they have software which seems to judge whether you’re an arber/trader, and how much beating SP I think, and decisions as to the likely long term profitability of said account made on that basis.

          2. Josh if it’s there software that you think monitor’s our betting activity than use a VPN , I have only been restricted by 3 bookies before I started using the VPN, nothing since.

          3. yep, that’s on a list of things I need to look into and sort for sure. I think you’re right. They do monitor, i’ve no doubts about that, esp if you use odds comparison sites etc.

          4. Like you Johnny I will back it as I made the mistake once before of missing the good price, not backing it and it hosed in, It will all turn around, just a difficult time of year changing from jumps to flat, but what else would I spend my money on, my dear wife already has wallpaper in boxes that will need hanging soon. Oh summer is coming.

    4. Don’t chip in much, however, GW Sports (Macbet) say they match all prices on Oddschecker from 9am, and looks like you can get a decent bet on. I have no connection with them ….. seems pretty fair by today’s standards. Think I might give ’em a go. (gwsports.co.uk)

    5. Well, that went well! I realised after posting (and placing my bet) that the Henderson 50%
      hurdles stat relates to horses making their UK debut over hurdles and this one had run in an NHF race – apologies if I misled anyone.
      Back to the drawing board!

    6. Winning at 8/1 is better than leaving it bacause the price came in.
      Winner is a winner
      And would be no point in tipping it if you didn’t think it would win. Defeats the whole point of tipping.
      It didn’t win but I still made a profit and that’s what counts.
      Well done nick 🙂

  8. Not a tip, but the one which jumped out at me today was Twist in the 1.45 at Kempton.
    Hendo has a 50% strike rate with debut hurdlers and Nico is just shy of 30% at Kempton – could be value at 3/1?

  9. Just a quick observation of my betting since last Oct (since major excel overhaul) , the 8 tipsters I follow and my own bets show by far the worst results over extreme distances 26+ furlongs and sprinters 5&6 furlongs, the two ends of the scale. I was wondering if others notice similarities really, that’s all, and what reasoning you may have for this. There are one or two that have done ok over sprints, but generally two very poor areas. 200 bets for marathons and 300+ for sprints.

    1. hmmm, well sprints easier to explain I think… in my mind a lot more luck is needed, given the nature of them, the speed at which they are over – importance of pace/draw may be more vital – how the horse starts, a sprint can be over before it’s begun with a tardy start, and of course less time for a jockey to get a position etc – and of course arguably needing more luck in running? and the fact that these distances may have a bigger average field size? not sure. Maybe more emphasis on handicapping and need for pounds in hand, given those fine margins, and depending on how a sprint is run – then maybe plenty ‘get away’ with running over X trip – in general maybe because of all the above they are just a harder puzzle to solve? I tried to dabble in them last year or year before and just couldn’t hack it mentally, not when just looking at those races, when 10+ runners etc. So much to consider, and can be disheartening when doing all the work but game over when miss the break, or get stuck behind horses, or there wasn’t the pace you expected, or on a front runner who gets pestered by something you didn’t expect. They are solevable long term I think, but a def specialist area, and at that Class 5/6 level, you have the added mix that the horses by their nature are just not as good/are less consistent. A tricky one.

      In theory extreme distance, esp chasing -well long term there isn’t an excuse for failure in those race types. I enjoy them as a challenge for various reasons, but by their nature a horse has had more runs/a profile of sorts building up as to preferred conditions and you can weigh those up against the younger/unexposed ones, and who may come out on top. It’s also so hard to win them if you’re a hold up horse/are not in a good possy on final circuit. They are such a test on a horse I think fitness can be more important as can obviously being ‘in form’, and not looking for too many excuses for recent poor runs. Also much more emphasis on jumping – which can only be determined by video study really. I just need to dedicate myself to those really, and know everything inside out and back to front but work to do.

      It could be argued those extremes need the most time and dedication? not sure you can cut corners generally but maybe even more so in those race types given the above.

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