Members Daily Post: 04/05/19 (complete)

Nicks Tips x5, Tips x7 , Section 1 (complete) , test zone, punchy pointers inc 5.35, thirsk

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Uttoxeter

2.10 – Sea of Mystery   (nov HcH) 14,30  ES+ I1 6/1 S3A 

4.00 –

Theclockisticking   (m age) H1 I3 7/1 

4.35 – Theatrebar   (HcH,m TJC) 14,30   w1 ES+ H1 I1 7/2 S3A#

5.05 –

Goodthyneaway   (nov HcCh)  w1  w2 ES+ H1 5/2 S3A 

Degany Demon   ( nov HcCh ) 14,30 ES+  11/1 S3A 

 

Hexham

6.35 –

Manamite   (m TJC)  w2 H3 11/4 

Fisher Green   (HcH) 14/1 S2

Beyondtemptation   (HcH) H1 I3 5/1 

7.05 – Bafana Blue   (m class)  w2 H3 15/2 

8.35 –

Ever So Much   (m TJC) 8/1 

Mrs Vonn   (HcCh,m dist)  w1 H1 9/2 

 

FLAT

Doncaster

5.15 – Embour   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 6/1 S6

7.50 –

Mugatoo   (all Hc’s)  w2 ES+ 2/1 S3A

Native Fighter   (all Hc’s) I3 9/1

8.20 – Miss Latin   (all Hc’s)  w1 ES+ H1 I3 4/1 S3A#

 

Goodwood

None

 

Newmarket (Rowley)

1.50 – Vintager   (all Hc’s, m runs) 14,30  I1 11/1 S6 

 

Thirsk

2.30 – Eccleston   (4yo+,m’s dist and class) 20/1 

4.15 – Baraweez   (all Hc’s) 14 I1 16/1 S6 

5.25 –

Excessable   (m dist) H3 16/1 

Desert Ace   (m class)  I3 18/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/53, 15p +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/80,21p, -45, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

Daily Tips (complete x1) 

4.00 Uttox – Bob Mahler – 1 point win – 7/1 (PP) 6/1 (gen) (15p r4)

 

Jumps Big Race Tips (complete x6) 

(Punch : 0/5,1p, -5)

3.10 Punch 

#1 Kilkishen – 1 point EW – 28/1 (SkyB/BV/Boyle) 25/1 (gen) (1/4, 4 standard, many 1/5 5, dec 4 places)

#2 Spider Web – 1 point win – 14/1 (SkyB/BV/Coral) 12/1 (gen)

#3 Wishmoor – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) (BFSP an option?/taking price when liquidity)

 

5.35 Punch 

#4 Stratum – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 

#5 Cut The Mustard – 1 point EW – 20/1 (gen) (SkyB/PP 6 places, 1/5 5 places gen/declared

 

5.00 Punch

#6 Young Paddymc – 1 point win – 11/2 (betfS/PP/BV) 5/1 (gen)

 

that’s all for today.

(do note I did most of the work on these races yesterday but wanted to look again with fresh eyes, I haven’t just rushed through 🙂 ) 

ALL write ups HERE>>>

 

3.Nick’s Tips (complete x5) 

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

3.15 Good – Quench Dolly – 1 point EW – 14/1

4.00 Uttox – Station Master – 1 point EW – 6/1

5.20 Newm – Victory Command – 1 point EW – 10/1

5.25 Thirsk – Billy Dylan – 1 point EW – 12/1

6.50 Donc – Aeolus – 1 point EW –  10/1

that’s all Nick’s tips for today, as of 08.13

Quench Dolly-4/4 on undulating  tracks and 2/2 at goodwood; has won last 3 c3 flat starts before Re-appearance run; 3/5, 4p in May; 2lbs below last winning mark; solid draw and should be able to race prominently and she made all on her last win so hope they repeat those tactics

Station Master-most unexposed horse in the race particularly since cheekpieces went on; has gone close to a couple of horses rated effectively 10-15lbs higher; will lead or be prominent; trainer in very hot form; even before the cheekpieces form of his 2 seconds have worked out well; ground should suit as should track

Victory Command-dropped 7lbs since last run which was handicap debut; has been competing in group company but has ran ok including over course and distance and this much easier; fanning 2/2; has crucial track experience; should make all

Billy Dylan-still on unexposed with cheekpieces on and excuses for last 2 runs; only 2lb higher than his last win and will have likely progressed from 3 to 4; form of that race franked; has best draw; jockey is 2/2 on him with the cheekpieces on; will make all hopefully

Aeolus-Hasn’t ran a bad race over 6f worth less than 20k; has done well at the track including here 3 starts ago; trainer change to Ruth Carr; excuses for last two runs; now 4lbs below his last winning mark

4.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU (14/1< guide)

4.00 U – Dell Arca

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

H Brooke (25/1< guide)

7.05 H – Quest For Life

Jockeys/Chasers

3.10 P – Spider Web (16/1<)

4.00 U – Viens Chercher (9/1< best)

5.40 U – Cruising Bye (9/1< best)

LTO winning trainers 

4.00 U – Viens Chercher (8/1<)

6.00 H – Alfies Choice (11/1< guide)

 

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Punchestown Trainer pointers :  READ HERE>>>

 

Punchestown Day 5 Handicap Pointers

Trainers with runners that have won race previously…

3.10 

Minella Awards

Red Hot Filly Peppers / Some Neck / Cest Jersey

Getaway Kid

5.00 

Bellow Mome

Heron Heights / Full Cry

5.35 

ALL W Mullins runners

Golden Spear / La Tektor

 

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Punchestown Day 5 ‘Micro’ qualifiers (from report above) 

Willie Mullins

3.50 – Benie Des Dieux / Good Thyne Tara / Stormy Island (m1)

4.25 – French Made (m2)

5.35 – Dorrells Pierji / Lac Kivu (m2)

6.10 – Tactical Move  (m2)

Jessie Harrington 

5.00 – Walk To Freedom (m1/m2)

Gordon Elliot

4.25 – Coko Beach (m1)

Enda Bolger (3/1<) 

2.35 – Blue Templar / Josies Orders

 

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5.35 Punchestown

A ‘winning profile’… top 3 at least once last 3 runs / had run G3+ / highest class win between C4-G3 / 0-3 hurdle wins / 0-2 wins this season… leaves 10/82, 25p…

Out of The Loop / Shanning / Canardier / Milan Native / Cut The Mustard / Contingency / Supreme Vinnie 

2+ career wins and 6+ career runs also a positive… Out of the Loop / Canardier / Contingency / Supreme Vinnie

 

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Thirsk Hunt Cup 

Thirsk Hunt Cup Pointers: HERE>>>

Well the stats/trends are not overly useful here. Those listed below represent trainers who’ve won this race previously. 

Borodin / Commander Han / Dawaaleeb /Parys Mountain / Baraweez / Garrick

Those aged 4-6 do best, and those without a win beyond 1m…  applied to all runners leaves too many really, but applied to the list above leaves… Borodin / Commander Han /Parys Mountain /Garrick

Maybe useful starting points, if nothing else. Given the lack of trends, there’s no point doing my test ‘shortlist’ and ‘long list’ , but i’ll go through those above and see if any stand out…

 

Stats Longlist  (3x races: 1/20,6p, -10) 

None.

 

My Shortlist (3x races: 0/10,2p, -10) 

none.

Trainers (3x races: 2/6, 3p, +9) 

This idea uses my race stats/trends pointers and cross referencing with those trainers who’ve previously won the race. It’s found the Irish and English Lincoln winners so far this season. 

Borodin 7/2

Commander Han – 16/1

 

 

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April Tipping Competition 

I think George has won again! Well done 🙂

291 bets / +146.36 points BFSP / 50% ROI

So, first prize of £50 to George B!

Discretionary price… I’m going to give a discretionary prize of £20 to Titus, given how solid those figures are.

If i’ve missed any etc, speak now or forever hold your peace! 🙂

From those results I can see, plenty of you did very well, just not quite as well as George!

  • Titus: 17/77, +28 BFSP, 36% ROI
  • Freezing1: 5/37, 13p, 29% ROI
  • Martin W: 11/93, +24.55, 25% ROI
  • Warren B: 11/72, +8.86, 12.3% ROI
  • Mark B: 7/55, +6.66, 12.1% ROI
  • Tony Mc: +4.34, 7.8% ROI

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. Been away with work all week, so, apologies for that. Haven`t done too bad at Punchestown and now onto Saturday.
    15:10 Punchestown
    KILKISHEN 28/1 gen 1pt ew
    SPIDER WEB 10/1 gen 1pt win

    17:00 Punchestown
    NAH TRACHTALAI ABU 20/1 gen 1pt e/w
    ACTING LASS 9/2 gen 2pt win

    (FLAT) test
    13:50 Newmarket
    (JAZEEL 1pt win 8/1 gen)
    (ELECTOR 1pt win 6/1 gen)
    14:20 Newmarket
    (MABS CROSS 6/1 gen 1pt win)
    (EL ASTRONAUTE 8/1 gen 1pt win)
    15:35 Newmarket
    (ADVERTISE 15/2 gen 1pt win)
    (MAGNA GRECIA 5/1 gen 2pt win)

    write ups in morning.

    1. 15:10 Punchestown
      KILKISHEN
      Is it me or are the bookies not really getting to grips with the Irish racing, in that they seem to concentrate more on the guineas meetings and have left Ed McDuck doing the tissue for Irish Racing. This one is way over priced, you can forgive lto run in attritional circumstances at Uttoxeter, but, we have an Eider 4th placed runner, who, in staying chases is consistently getting placed, so, can understand why me and Josh have both gone each way and taken a leaf out of Nick`s book of, this for a place is a steal, if he wins big bucks time!!
      SPIDER WEB
      Been following SW for a while, he is a bit of my cliff horse, the only time i went against him was with my later selection NTAabu, he did him on the line that day and I have had him in my notebook since then, sent over hurdles lto, which is always a ploy by the trainers in Ireland to keep the Hcp mark the same or drop it, whilst still getting air in the horses lungs! He does have a weird running style and one heck of a finish, he seems to switch off for most of the race and then wakes up with a furlong to go, watch a couple of his races if you can, how he beat NTAabu in the Munster is beyond my recognition? He will come late and with a right rattle, so, if you don`t see/hear his name mentioned do not panic.
      17:00 Punchestown
      NA TRACHTALAI ABU
      This horse loves Punchestown and going right handed in general, he almost won the Munster national and was just pipped by the Spider on that day, he looked as though he peaked for that race as his next run at Naas was a little disappointing. He will love the drying ground and really is very consistent apart from lto that i would draw a line through, you will see a different horse today and 20`s is too big.
      ACTING LASS
      This is the class animal in this race and it just goes to see whether Mr Fry has worked his magic yet again with this one, he must be fit and ready if he `s entered, so, for that part I`m going to ignore the 434 day absence and look at his previous form..he ran well to score a 3 timer with a class 2 victory at Ascot (coincidentally RH), then blew up in the old Racing Post chase at Kempton in February 2018, if reproducing the Ascot form he should run all these into submission as he took it up and then found more from Kilcrea Vale`s challenge approaching the last fence. Just value at 9/2…

      FLAT TEST
      13:50
      (JAZEEL C and D winner, also clocked some good times, value at 8/1)
      (ELECTOR trainer in form, has ability, Joe Fanning good jockey 6/1 about right)
      14:20
      (MABS CROSS experience in abundance, c and d success, plenty of speed, raring to go according to trainer.tissue for me would have had this one at 7/2, too much hype on fav, so, 6/1 is value)
      (EL ASTRONAUTE another speedster, consistent, value at 8/1)
      15:35
      (MAGNA GRECIA 2nd string always do well for AP, every box ticked for me, should be favourite, but, retained jockey went for Sovereigns..wrong move imo, 5/1 value)
      (ADVERTISE if either of front two don`t want it, this fella will, Frankie is 2-2 on him and was quick to snap up the ride. 8/1 deffo value)

      1. Note to self. The next time Stewart warns caution about following his flat tips, just ignore him. Outstanding work there. Totally not kicking myself for not backing any of them. *attaches rope and kicks bucket away*

      2. yea don’t bother with this staying chase nonsense Stewart, stick to the flat, at this rate I may join you haha. Well done with those test pokes, great work. Turning into a fine all round punter, long may it last.

      3. Awww thanks fellas, don’t know if I’ll be able to get my head out the door this evening! I was shouting that loud when Magna Grecia won I’m surprised the whole country didn’t hear me!!?

    2. Crazy prices on some of Mr Walsh`s horses, if you read his column in the racing post, he fancies SOME NECK rather than the others he has in the 15:10 at Punchestown, therefore i will add SOME NECK to my original 2, at 8/1 to 17/2 is a crazy price, 1pt win. 14/1 for Spider Web also…(shaking head and scratching it whilst typing this!!?).

    3. Suppose the only thing they have got right is the price of Kilkishen, the 28`s is a distant memory and 16/20`s is best you will get now.

      1. I thought, in the context of his price, Some Neck ran like a non stayer LTO at Punch, and what with the break, and fact i’d have thought PT would have been on if he was chucked in etc, I was happy to leave at price, and even now wasn’t sure 8s looked value given those concerns, but I could be wrong! Maybe me all hoping the top 4 in market getting beat, all unexposed in conditions, is asking for trouble! But, lets hope the shark does the job!

        1. He is a bit quirky, will give you that, but, was just going off what Mr Mullins (correction from Walsh in my previous post) said in relation to whom he felt was the best of the 3, know you shouldn`t pick on that alone, so, looked at his form and I believe he is just undecided as to what Some neck`s best distance is, suppose he will find out today if good ground and a marathon distance is the key. I don`t know about anyone else, but, most of Gigginstown horses seem to be running a little tired this week, (with the exception of Delta Work). Assume most of them are that way after being entered in all the top races etc.

        2. Apples Jade looked tired when she finished yesterday…some of the others during this week, in my opinion, looked as though they were ready for a summer break.

  2. if i can get my request in early, i’m off to Wetherby tuesday so a through the card would be nice Josh and any other input from members.

  3. 3.35 Newmarket, Magna Grecia 3 points win. 5/1 now. I think that Ryan Moore is on the wrong one as Ten Sovereigns has stamina doubts. Whereas Magna Grecia has won over one mile twice and in class one already.
    Also Dark Vision, 1/2 point each way at 50/1. He disappointed on his last run in 2018 but before then had won at glorious goodwood. He has had a pipe opener this season and Godophin will be looking for him to step forward here.
    3.10 Punchestown, Minella Awards 2 points win. 9/2 now. This one is a course winner and tries this marathon distance for the first time after running over 3 miles previously. He has only had three runs over fences and has some scope. He has weight to carry but Harry Fry has a good course record here.
    4.15 Thirsk, Borodin 2 points win. 9/2 now. From this wide draw the selection can get forward early to get a position. A course and distance winner, the trainer is in good form and has a decent five year record here, as does the jockey.

    1. Hi Martin…agree with the Magna Grecia selection (hope it not the kiss of death) and the reasoning…also (again hope have not jinxed this as well) your comments on Dark Vision the horse ran in a C2 at Chelms. at 38.10 mph over 8f..nmkt and class totally fifferent but at 50/1 si too big…the others I had on the short list were Skardu running 37.29 over 8f and Momkin just a nk behind but was hampered bumped etc but Magna Grecia is the main choice.

  4. Hi Colin. Just picked up your message from yesterday. Been out of it this last couple of days with some kind of equine virus. My partner got it when a horse sneezed in her face whilst out on a job for work. She works as a rehabilitation officer for a horse rescue charity. Anyway…. she went down with it about a week after the incident. I thought I’d escaped it but on Tuesday night I was awake all night and from there it was all down hill. Had a go yesterday morning back at the desk, but couldn’t seem to be able to concentrate or focus my attention for long enough to achieve anything.

    BAck at it today and although I’m not 100%, I feel well enough to see it through. Just a bit of catching up to do before I can start on today’s so I’m expecting to be on the minutes as usual. 😉

    1. Tim
      Pleased you are on the mend and good luck with your bets, not man flu then!!!!
      Cheers
      Colin

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    G 3.15 – Just Glamorous on 7th run ( 2xaw) @ 20
    T 4.15 – Kings Pavilion on 5th run @ 40
    D 5.15 – Wahoo on 2nd run @ 14
    Festival/BRT
    U 3.25 – Solomon Grey on 2nd run @ 5/4
    U 4.00 – Theclockisticking on 1st run @ 7
    …………Milansbar on 5th run @ 14
    U 4.35 – Sir Ivan on 1st run @ 5
    P 5.35 – Mr Adjudicator on 2nd run @ 18
    ………..Canardier on 1st run @ 8
    M 1.50 – Ibraz on 1st run @ 10
    T 4.15 – Dawaaleb on 5th run @ 8
    …………Borodin on 1st run @ 4
    D 5.15 – Wahoo on 1st run @ 14
    3m+
    U 4.00 – Ami Debois on 3rd run @ 10
    …………Dell Arca on 5th run @ 14
    …………Brian Boranha on 1st run @ 20
    …………Jetstream Jack on 7th run @ 18
    P 3.10 – Regal Encore on 4th run @ 10
    ………..Kilkishen on 2nd run @ 25
    P 5.00 – Oscar Knight on 5th run @ 16
    GL

  6. 2.40 Good Whitefountainfairy EW
    Always a tricky race with plenty of hard luck stories. The low draw hosses have been shortened purely because of that and I expect them to drift. Stoute’s 4 yos are always a concern but drawn 10 hopefully will meet some trouble as might the selection. If it wasn’t for 2 AW losses this would be half the odds hence the pick on a day where very little came out my hard work.

    4.15 Thirsk Waarif EW 5 places
    Another rough and tumble race where you need some luck on a hold up. The odds went on this about 4.30 yesterday which is soul destroying knowing all these little things chip away at an already hard to earn profit but the 5 places has sucked me in and if 5 beats me home then I deserve to lose.

    Fahey is firing in the winners at the moment and I think he has 10 running today. I will be having a multiple bet on maybe 5 of those, which ones is anyone’s guess

  7. COLINS BETS
    Goodwood
    5.30 Htilominio BOG 4/1
    Doncaster
    5.15 Lucky Lucky Man BOG 11/1
    7.50 Native Fighter BOG 7/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.30 Thirsk Shortbackandsides BOG 28/1
    5.40 Uttoxeter Desert Sting BOG 16/1
    NEW METHOD
    1.35 Goodwood Cristal Spirit BOG 3/1
    1.50 Newmarket Aquarium BOG 11/1
    6.20 Doncaster Archaeology BOG 9/2
    8.20 Doncaster Sempre Presto BOG 5/1
    Colin

  8. bloody computers , just got back online.
    today’s selections.
    Newmarket.
    2-20. Tarboosh 9-1
    3-35. Al Hilale 18-1
    4-10. Moyassar 12-1
    Thirsk.
    2-30. Cartmell Cleave 6-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

  9. Happy with my 25/1 e/w on Shine So Bright in the Guineas down to 14/1 now, paying 5 places. I’ll have a go at Madhmoon at 7/1 too.

  10. 2000gns really very difficult to decipher ….but have come down on the side of Magna Grecia as slightly better pedigree than Ten Sovereigns and is proven over 8f running 37.50 mph which is above average….Ten Sovs ran 39.11 mph over 6f but the price does not reflect the horse is unproven over the 8f and Wes Wards runner the other day was very fat ove the 4.5 f but did not see out the extra distance so, hopefully the better priced O’brian runner will do the business. Gd lck

    1. “fast” not fat…and “over ” trying to multitask , obviously not that successfully!

        1. Thanks ……….Martin was spot on with his choice, and analysis so all credit to his assessment….know what you mean about being on the right one….2nd string and I prefer Donacha and Heff to Ryan Moore as both tend to win at better prices just because of jockey bookings….but good for confidence after the previous debacle where I think I was trying too hard to find non existent angles…forgot the advice of ” keep it simple stupid” ( KISS)..will be back tomorrow if I have time.

          1. I did like Skardu’s run in the race and Urban Icon. I agree re backing the O’Brien runners without Ryan Moore, as they get over bet. The winner showed his stamina for the mile but did get the run of the race.

  11. Yo George B just noticed you were well enough to tip about 50 horses today, how did it go Mon ami?

    1. ha ha .. they are not my tips they are my nurses fancies today 😉
      see josh has made the competition a handicap now ( linited 2 180 bets a month ??? ) ….. insteasd of a true stakes competition ….. lol
      yep all went well and back home in full recouperation mode .. lucozade and whisky on tap …… all done and pleased 🙂 thanks for asking my man 🙂
      gb 🙂
      howz ya pin sticking going today ????

      1. Happy everything went well…speedy recovery…and congrats on the tipping competition……not so many darts to throw this time round!!! but sure some big priced winners will be there on the beach!

        1. thanks Silver .. there must be some beach trips coming up soon to aid my recovery 🙂 congrats on your choice in the 2000 gns ….. excellent work .. now then back to my medication 😉

      2. Good man, was a bit suspicious that some of the tips were lower case 🙂

        Good, had the Guineas winner thanks to Silver and other RTP luminaries and clawed back the rest of my stakes with the Hunt Cup winner and second (the latter thanks to Josh’s shortlist unlike yours lol.

        Take it easy now and get fit for Wolverhampton on Tuesday evening 🙂

        1. yep will do mc with the mostest .. when is the rtp montly champion tipster movers n groovers award dinner n dance evening and prize givings then ??? lol 🙂
          gb 🙂

          1. Yes, that would be some event 🙂 Well done on your second championship, don’t forget who stuck by you as you scrambled up the greasy pole of success 🙂

            Have a good evening.

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