Members Daily Post: 03/05/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT

Chepstow

1.45 – 

Kirkland Forever (all 5 yrs) w1 ES+ H1 I1 G3 11/2 S1 S3A# S4 

Consultant (all hncps) H3 I3 6/4 

4.25 – 

Quantum Dot (all hncps 5 yrs) w2 ES+ G3 11/2 S3A 

Fair Cop (all hncps) I3 3/1 

 

Lingfield

4.10 – Flying Sakhee (micro dist)  40/1 

 

Musselburgh

2.25 –

Amazing Grazing   (dist) I3 14/1

Our Place In Loule   (m dist)  w2 6/1 

2.55 – Mustadun   (3yo+)  ES+ H3 7/2 S3A 

3.25 – Theglasgowarrior   (m -class) H3 I1 6/1 S6 

4.35 –

Inviolable Spirit   (m class)  8/1 

Smugglers Creek   (m +class) I3 11/1 

Roaring Forties   (m class) 16/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/53, 15p +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/80,21p, -45, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

 

Jumps Big Race Tips

(Punch: 0/5,1p, -5)

4.20 P – De Name Escapes me – 1 point win – 9/1 (bet365/BetfS/PP) 8/1 (gen) UR

4.55 P – Barra – 1 point win – 13/2 (BV/PP) 6/1 (gen) UP, not sure what that effort was, awful.

that’s all for today, as of 09.18. Write ups… 

De Name Escapes Me … 

I narrowed this race down to the selection and Hardline, with a nagging fear i’ve picked the wrong one! Hardline is interesting in here, being the only non handicap Grade 1/2 winner in the line up – however, he didn’t run his race at Cheltenham (like a few from the yard in truth) but is also unproven over the trip – and in the end at 6s or so, with those two niggles, I decided against him. This is his first go in a handicap chase and, what with the claim, he could well be the one to beat. Arguably he has the best form in the race also, but he does need to prove he’ll stay 2m5f around here – that was the doubt, and what form he’s in. He hasn’t proved he won’t stay it, and this is the easiest chase on paper he’s run in. Top weights have a good record in this race also. I’m making an ok case for him here, and maybe it’s another around this price point i’ve got wrong. A tricky one.

Anyway, i’ve gone for one at a bigger price who i thought could still have something in hand from this mark over fences. He’s a horse that’s always promised a lot and it’s started to click over fences more recently. He won three starts back, winning cosily when chucked in off 119. He could have won that by a lot further. I’m not sure what happened at Leopardstown, maybe it came too quickly. However, his run LTO at Naas in a decent race was a good effort. He ran like a non stayer over that trip, over fences. He loomed up 2 out and was bang there, before fluffing the last and then flattening out. The 2nd there ran a cracker in the Irish National in 2nd. He’s solid handicapping form in this and I thought he could out-run these odds, if running his race. Meade’s horses have gone well here this week, inc winning the final race yesterday.

Real Steel didn’t looked overpriced to my eyes, it’s hard to know whether he’s well handicapped or not, but does have a touch of class. Poker Party I thought was about right given he’s gone up 10lb for his last handicap win and needs to step forward again, and is unproven going RH over fences. I thought Hardline and Real Steel had the likes of Jetz and Beyond The Law covered who they’ve thumped previously.

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Barra…

Hopefully i’ve picked the right Gigginstown chaser in these two races! This looks like a race Elliot targets given the stats below, and i’d like to think that her run 10 days ago, her first in 227 days, was as a prep for this race, esp given the jockey booking.  This is only her 3rd chase start but she’s looked very polished in her first two, inc bolting up in her first chase. She has the best hurdle form in this race I think – that 1L third in last year’s Coral Cup is very good form, beaten by Bleu Berry and Topofthegame, William Henry just behind. That 3rd was off 137, the same mark as today, minus the 7lb claim. The young jockey looks decent enough and Elliot wouldn’t use him if he didn’t have some ability. He has a few wins to his name, and a decent 2nd four starts back in the Thyestes handicap chase. I’ve no doubt she’s well handicapped and conditions are fine. I thought she should be much closer to the fav in terms of price here.

The market suggests Ask Susan may be chucked in, Willie having no doubt worked his magic, finding 10lb/15lb + that her previous connections couldn’t. She looks to have had a prep for this over hurdles LTO also, and this trip should suit. She has had 30+ career starts, but does have chase experience and maybe another Mullins shorty i’ll regret taking on. But, she didn’t seem overly big. Maybe we will see why she’s that short, but Barra should give her plenty to think about.

The other two at the top of the market are in form, but Moyhenna’s wins have all been in heavy so ground is a question, and Timeforwest has to step forward again, with all chase wins in small fields, 1-7 runners. When there are four ‘shorties’ and two are trained by Mullins/Elliot, i’d find it surprising if one didn’t take this. I didn’t like any of the bigger priced ones for one reason or another.

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3.Nick’s Tips

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

NO tips on Friday.

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers

4.55 P – Teachers Pet (16/1<)

Festival 2019 Losing Tips

4.20 P – Quamino

6.35 P – Caid Du Berlais

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

NEW – Thirsk Hunt Cup Pointers: HERE>>>

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Punchestown Trainer pointers :  READ HERE>>>

 

Punchestown Day 4 Handicap Pointers

Trainers with runners that have won race previously…

4.20 

Real Steel / Pravalaguna (trainer…6/26, 10p)

Jetz (4/14,5p)

4.55

Barra / Mil Quest / Synopsis (2/5,4p)

 

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Punchestown Day 4 ‘Micro’ qualifiers (from report above) 

Willie Mullins

5.30 – Melon (m1)

7.45 – Monkfish (m2)

6.05 – Eglantine Du Seuil / Royal Rendezvous (m2)

Jessie Harrington 

4.20 – Jetz (m1)

5.30 – Supasundae (m2)

Gordon Elliot

4.20 – Hardline (m1, 16/1< guide, m2)

5.30 – Apples Jade (m1, 16/1< guide, m2)

6.05 – Battleoverdoyen (m1, 16/1< guide,m2)

Enda Bolger (3/1<) 

6.35 – Stand Up And Fight

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April’s Strategy RESULTS

Updated Spreadsheet HERE>>>

Advised Strategies

Jumps S1

  • April: 2/19, 3p, -1.5, +5.85 BFSP
  • 2019: 7/79, 13p, -6.13, +1.22 BFSP

Jumps S3A#

  • April: 4/10,6p, +10.375
  • 2019: 11/43, 20p, +7.875

Flat S6 

  • April: 1/8,3p, +15, +12 BFSP
  • 2019: 1/8,3p, +15, +12 BFSP

+21 points, if backing S1/S6 to BFSP (advised long term, given some of biggies landed on), and S3A# to morning odds/bog. A solid, if unspectacular first third of 2019. Still, better than nothing, helped of course by the first big priced winner for flat S6. I know some of you snaffled 28s-40s on the machine on that one.

By the end of next week i’ll bring everything else up to speed, but those 3 strategies are where I’d start, but some more detail the Key, esp the ‘other ideas’ doc etc. But with any luck those three will be a 100+ point a year strategy, having pulled in +225 in 2018 at 50% ROI or so.

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April Tipping Competition 

I think George has won again! 🙂

291 bets / +146.36 points BFSP / 50% ROI

So, first prize of £50 to George B!

Discretionary price… I’m going to give a discretionary prize of £20 to Titus, given how solid those figures are.

If i’ve missed any etc, speak now or forever hold your peace! 🙂

From those results I can see, plenty of you did very well, just not quite as well as George!

  • Titus: 17/77, +28 BFSP, 36% ROI
  • Freezing1: 5/37, 13p, 29% ROI
  • Martin W: 11/93, +24.55, 25% ROI
  • Warren B: 11/72, +8.86, 12.3% ROI
  • Mark B: 7/55, +6.66, 12.1% ROI
  • Tony Mc: +4.34, 7.8% ROI

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • today’s selections.
    Chepstow.
    1-45. Marengo 12-1(any support for Tobouggaloo should be noted after 20 months off)
    5-00. Fitzwilly 7-1 4 places
    Musselburgh.
    2-25. Alsvinder 28-1 4 places
    5-10. Elite Icon 5-1
    all 1/2 pt ew

    Martin Whittle 03/05/19 7:47 AM Reply


    • 1 n/r, staked 3 pts, returns 6.6 pts, up 3.6 pts.

      Martin Whittle 03/05/19 9:09 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    M 2.25 – Abel Handy on 3rd run @ 3
    M 5.10 – Eyreborn on 4th run @ 11
    L 4.10 – Kachumba on 2nd run @ 2
    Festival/BRT
    M 2.25 – Abel Handy on 4th run @ 3
    P 4.20 – Quamino on 2nd run @ 14
    ………..R’Evelyn Pleasyre on 2nd run @ 20
    P 6.35 – Caid Du Berlais on 1st run @ 6
    Naw 8.00 – Whats The Story on 2nd and 3rd run @ 6
    …………….Hyperfocus on 2nd run (inc 1 x aw) @ 8
    3m+
    C 7.50 – Southfield Theatre on 5th run @ 7
    GL

    Titus 03/05/19 9:32 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    4.35 Musselburgh Kupa River BOG 10/3
    5.00 Chepstow Fitzwilly BOG 11/2
    8.30 Newcastle Everkyllachy BOG 3/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.35 Lingfield Al Mureib BOG 10/3
    NEW METHOD
    6.55 Newcastle Splash Of Verve BOG 4/1
    8.00 Newcastle Hyperfocus BOG 11/1
    Colin

    cleafe 03/05/19 10:01 AM Reply


  • Hi Chubnut
    Hope that you are OK and that you will be back on site in the near future for i for one am missing you, not really Ha Ha but certainly your bets and you have an 100% record of two winning months out of two since recording them, hopefully you will have something tomorrow, all the best.
    Cheers
    Colin.

    cleafe 03/05/19 11:47 AM Reply


    • Very frustrating lately between no real stand out in a race then no price when one does. I’ve spent about 8 hours on tomorrows and best so far is 3 left in a race. However, opening first bottle of red now and horses usually get culled between the 2nd and 3rd bottle. Regardless of selections I’ll try to post what I’ve found, its not as if your own picks aren’t cleaning up. ( Hail to master smiley)

      chubnut 03/05/19 6:12 PM Reply


      • At this rate I may try the 2-3 bottle of red approach to analysis! Enjoy.

        Josh 03/05/19 6:15 PM Reply


        • He lives!! 🙂

          Mark Curtis 03/05/19 7:41 PM Reply


  • Nothing from today as quality not that good (myself included!) and the two races I looked at had no each way value so hopefully tomorrow will prove more fruitful. Gd lck.

    silver 03/05/19 11:51 AM Reply


  • Hi Tim
    Hope you are OK as well for you vanished over last couple of days and was looking forward to the HC bets, or are you still tweaking them, anyway if you could give an update would be most grateful.
    Cheers
    Colin

    cleafe 03/05/19 11:51 AM Reply


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