Members Daily Post: 02/05/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

3.Nick’s Tips

4.Micro System Test Zone

5.Any general messages/updates etc

*

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

FLAT 

Musselburgh

1.45 –

Kinloch Pride   (micro distance) H3 I3 G3 8/1 S4 UP

Lord Of The Glen   (m age) G1 12/1 S6 UP

Foxy Boy   (m dist) 12/1 

5.00 –

Restive   (m -class) H1 I1 8/1 S6  UP

Foxy Lady   (m age)  w2 7/1  UP

 

Redcar

None

Salisbury

None

 

*

THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

*

 

2.My Tips (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/53, 15p +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/78,21p, -43, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

 

Jumps Big Race Tips

6.05 Punch 

Insult – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen) 4th

Captain Drake – 1 point win – 28/1 (gen) UP

that’s all for today, 09.25, write ups to follow…

Insult… I thought this thoroughly  unexposed youngster looked worth a go here at 14s as there’s no doubt he’ll be better than this mark at some point, and he runs for a yard that know what’s needed to win this race. Thoroughly unexposed/very lightly raced horses have a decent record in this and his win at the track two starts back was in the manner of a future stayer. They upped him in trip LTO at Fairyhouse where he stepped at the flight four out and came down. It was a soft enough fall I think. Clearly you don’t know how it will affect their confidence but given his ‘could be anything’ profile, his course form and trainer, I thought he was worth a go at 14s. The jockey booking is intriguing and I’ve no positives or negatives, behaviour wise. He has ridden for De Bromhead four times previously, placing once, and he’s still class. 10-9 is the lowest weight Davy Russel does and I suspect he didn’t want to waste down for this and Rachael may have found it hard to get off Cuneo. Or, mine has no chance at all! I don’t think stamina will be a problem, whereas I have staying concerns for plenty in here…

Captain Drake… well he definitely doesn’t have stamina concerns and I couldn’t work out why he was 28s, given his unexposed profile, proven stamina and his trainer won this two years ago. Having watched a few of his races back he does strike me as likely to relish this big field/gallop and that’s what could bring about another bit of improvement. His run at Kelso was decent enough, in a race dictated by the winner/a slow pace. He stayed on best of the rest and wasn’t stopping come the line. The fourth has since won at Ayr off 130 and a few of his races have produced subsequent winners. I was convinced he’d be staying on when plenty in here may be stopping, and the level of his hurdles form isn’t any worse than plenty in this field. I thought he looked a fascinating outsider and with any luck he runs his race. He may appreciate the cut in the ground also.

Of the rest… well the likes of My Sister Sarah and Three Musketeers have to prove they stay, and this trip takes some getting here. at 7s/8s I was happy to take them on. Cuneo – well he is solid and arguably has the best handicap hurdle form on offer here but it’s hard to say he’s thrown in/there could be loads more to come from this mark. He is open to attack from anything with more in hand. He is still open to progress though and maybe he will build on recent runs and that will be enough here. Clearly stamina isn’t a problem for him. Smoking Gun has done plenty of winning and is 8lb higher than LTO. That was a weak enough race I think – arguably weaker form than Captain Drakes last run. Both Discordantly and Acey Milan have to prove they stay. The latter hasn’t won beyond 16f as yet. At 12s, I was happy to leave both really but maybe one of them will prove me wrong.

So, I was happy to take on the top 6 in the market. We shall see if i’ve done so with the right ones. Mullins appears to have just thrown plenty of mud at this race, hoping some of it sticks. Maybe it will. The likes of Calie Du Mesnil, Getareason and Small Farm are unexposed enough and decent prices, but I was put off for one reason or another. One of those winning would be annoying though!

 

 

3.Nick’s Tips (complete)

(2018: +532.33 ; 2019: End April +11.16) 

#1 13.45 Muss –  Twentysvnthlancers – 1 point EW 11/1 gen (21.55) (also as of 08.06) (1/5 4 places… SkyB / BetfS / BV / PP / BetF/tote/Boyle)  UP

That’s all for today. 

*

 

4.Micro System Test Zone

Festival 2019 Losing Tips 

4.15 Punch- Bun Doran

6.05 – Cuneo / Getareason

 

5.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Punchestown Trainer pointers :  READ HERE>>>

Day 2 Handicap Pointers

Trainers with runners that have won race previously…

4.15 

Moon Over Germany / Minds Eye (trainer 2/13,5p)

Impact Factor /Don’t Touch It  (1/10,4p)

Tycoon Prince /Doctor Phoenix  (1/13,4p)

Stowaway Forever (1/3,2p)

6.05 

Cuneo / Mormon / Insult (1/8,2p)

My Sister Sarah / Ben Button / Roll Again / Small Farm / Getareason / Calie Du Mesnil ( 2/43, 9p)

Captain Drake / Air Horse One (1/2,1p)

*

Day 2 ‘Micro’ qualifiers (from report above) 

Willie Mullins

 5.30 – Bacardys / Bapaume (m1) 

6.05 – Getareason (m1) / Small Farm (m2)

7.15 – Allez Dancer (m1) / Elfile (m2)

 

Jessie Harrington 

3.40 – Polished Steel (m1) / Feeling The Love (m2)

4.15 – Impact Factor (m1/2) / Dont Touch It (m2)

5.30 – Not Many Left (m1/2)

6.05 – Discordantly (m1/2)

 

Gordon Elliot

None.

Enda Bolger (3/1<) 

4.50 – Josies Orders

 

**

April’s Strategy RESULTS

Updated Spreadsheet HERE>>>

Advised Strategies

Jumps S1

  • April: 2/19, 3p, -1.5, +5.85 BFSP
  • 2019: 7/79, 13p, -6.13, +1.22 BFSP

Jumps S3A#

  • April: 4/10,6p, +10.375
  • 2019: 11/43, 20p, +7.875

Flat S6 

  • April: 1/8,3p, +15, +12 BFSP
  • 2019: 1/8,3p, +15, +12 BFSP

+21 points, if backing S1/S6 to BFSP (advised long term, given some of biggies landed on), and S3A# to morning odds/bog. A solid, if unspectacular first third of 2019. Still, better than nothing, helped of course by the first big priced winner for flat S6. I know some of you snaffled 28s-40s on the machine on that one.

By the end of next week i’ll bring everything else up to speed, but those 3 strategies are where I’d start, but some more detail the Key, esp the ‘other ideas’ doc etc. But with any luck those three will be a 100+ point a year strategy, having pulled in +225 in 2018 at 50% ROI or so.

*

 

April Tipping Competition 

Results/winner TBC

 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

63 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • 3 Winners today checked BFSP = 5.50, 3.15, 5.00

    BFSPEX = 5.50, 3.15, 5.00 exactly the same SP from both Betfair sites is this just a rare occurrence or is this why Ladbrokes and PP bought the exchanges to manipulate the SPs and prices, certainly know my view it stinks!
    Colin.

    cleafe 01/05/19 8:35 PM Reply


    • Hi Colin, what’s bfspex?
      cheers
      Mike

      Titus 01/05/19 10:27 PM Reply


      • Hi Titus

        BFSPEX = Betfair Exchange supposed to be better odds where the punter bets against another punter and Betfair exchange hold the money for which you pay them 5 percent commission.
        So if this is the case then the odds are worse as SP after commission than their Sportsbook SP.
        Colin

        cleafe 02/05/19 7:17 AM Reply


        • Thanks Colin, soz for the terse question but I now have a post-it above my screen saying ‘no more than 10 words when p****d’ and such was my state after the Messi factor.
          Not using it often I always thought bfsp WAS the exchange and sportsbook was isp.
          Mike

          Titus 02/05/19 7:47 AM Reply


          • I wouldn’t expect you to be making much of a dent into the odds at those prices but it’s always worth bearing in mind that due to the way betfair calculate the SP, you do cannibalise your own price if you bet big enough.

            Personally £25 is about the limit above 10/1 in lower class races. Any more than that, more often than not you will be driving the price lower in my opinion.

            The problem is, taking a price just before the off will only beat BFSP in 42% of cases according to a large study someone did.

            So unfortunately if you find a strategy that works to BFSP, you will never quite be able to replicate historic results. However, you should be able to get close to it if you are sensible in how you go about it.

            You could try putting half your stake on using betdaq SP and see if that is any better?

            Francis 02/05/19 8:14 AM Reply


            • Thanks Francis for that depressing post just bought rope, poison, tablets and a nice 10 year old Bushmills Ha Ha, they certainly know how to -uck a punter up!
              Thankfully just started a trial with Elite from 1st May via a contact and if a successful trial and subscribers join then probably stop backing the horses again.
              Cheers
              Colin

              cleafe 02/05/19 10:48 AM Reply


          • It is Mike. I think Colin meant BFSB (Sportsbook) v BFSP (Exchange)

            Ken McKenzie 02/05/19 8:38 AM Reply


            • Ken
              You are supposed to be working not reading RtP. Lol.
              I know it’s your last day, Retirement Beckons, 4.25M an omen if there was one.
              Running at your home course, last day of working , and a name like that. Lump on my friend.
              Good Luck with your retirement, I can see you being a bigger rtp fan.

              Mike

              mickeydee 02/05/19 9:00 AM Reply


              • Cheers Mike. Yes I saw that horse haha. I’ve had a small wager at 25s. Not quite enough to fund my retirement but would be a nice way to start it off.

                Ken McKenzie 02/05/19 10:02 AM Reply


        • Colin I got an offer off Betfair a couple of months ago, it was actually a choice of three offers, (for being a loyal customer) I forget what two of them were but the one I was interested in and took up gladly was only 2% instead of the normal 5% and its made a big difference for me!

          brisha 02/05/19 12:34 PM Reply


          • Brisha
            trust it is for a limited but make hay whilst you can
            Colin

            cleafe 02/05/19 1:26 PM Reply


            • Thanks Colin, I shall try for as long as possible!

              brisha 02/05/19 3:50 PM Reply


          • It does not last! I went up to 8% once and so called it a day with them. I then got put back to 5%. I guess that they missed me?
            Matchbook are only 2% mostly.

            martin colwell 02/05/19 1:46 PM Reply


  • Thursday Tips – 5.05 PUN, Aux Ptits Soins, 2 points. A class one and two winner over three miles. Won well at Aintree LTO. The Sletons are not here just for the Guinness. Hopefully he will come with a late rattle. 9/2 about now.
    6.40 PUN, Defi Du Seail, 2 points. A class one winner who has won 3 from 5 over fences. His trainer is in form and JP likes a winner or two at this meeting. Hopefully he may drift in price now if money comes for the Irish favourite?
    7.25 CHM, Lufricia, 2.5 points. A Kodiac filly with lots of potential and will improve again, having had only two runs. 8/1 at present.

    Systems selection – Karl Burke at Southwell.

    4.10, Thunder Buddy, 1 point each way. Currently 14/1.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 01/05/19 9:08 PM Reply


    • Martin
      what was the AW courses you use for Karl Burke’s system, know you have mentioned it before but have a brain like a colander.
      Thanks
      Colin

      cleafe 02/05/19 11:09 AM Reply


      • The big wins come at Southwell. The other course was Newcastle, but the one has tailed off a bit and so I am only putting up Southwell runners at present.

        martin colwell 02/05/19 11:52 AM Reply


  • Today we bid farewell to one of horseracings great jockeys. He wasn’t perfect he was human. I for one will miss him. Happy retirement ruby.

    warren Bottomley 01/05/19 9:33 PM Reply


  • Hi
    This maybe something or nothing but I’ll say it for what it’s worth.
    It may interest the SBC crew in particular.

    4.45 Southwell – Sunbright
    4th run -1st hcp run – cl6 -1m ====== not very appealing is it?

    On it’s 2nd run I placed this horse in my tracker with a one word description – CHEATING

    It’s third appearance was just that, an appearance, not a true run.
    It had 2 entries last week and 2 entries this week and this is the chosen race.
    Generally available @ 10/1 it was 20/1+ around 6pm.
    Money has already come.
    I would have posted earlier but I was roped into being a linesman for my son’s football match tonight 🙂

    Andy G 01/05/19 10:03 PM Reply


    • it’s been put up by a tipping service, i had a few quid ew @ 33’s so i hope their right.

      Martin Whittle 02/05/19 12:38 AM Reply


    • cheers Andy G .. it’s against our beloved Atalanta Queen … gulp …….. had the necessary savers on at 10’s ……. much appreciated ….. in these regions 😉

      George B 02/05/19 7:40 AM Reply


      • Thanks Andy, we will have to include in our sandy portfolio 🙂

        Mark Curtis 02/05/19 11:06 AM Reply


    • Are you Messi’s dad? If so can you get him to play for Millwall next season? Free pie and mash provided.

      martin colwell 02/05/19 8:54 AM Reply


      • Very close, I have a Messy son.

        Andy G 02/05/19 9:15 AM Reply


    • Got 33s Betfair sportsbook last night and yes they have been cheating

      brian dunn 02/05/19 11:44 AM Reply


    • Cheating?? Nonsense 🙂

      I’m going to have to put some new eyes in, i’ve just watched those three runs back and no idea how you come to that conclusion!

      Firstly, the only way a horse learns how to be a racehorse, and to race… is by racing. She was green as grass at Wolvs, 1st run, pulled, didn’t really know what to do and looked clear to me that they were trying to teach her to settle/finish off race. I doubt she was 100% fit, or anywhere near. She looks big/raw. She could just not be very good… the 5th is rated 60, the 2nd now 90 and the winner won off 70s! She was the high school sprint champion running against Usain Bolt– relatively speaking! Well, you get the idea. I mean if she gets near a 70s+ horse anytime soon, then clearly she’ll be making 45 minus the 7lb claim look like the best bet ever today – maybe she will.

      Second run- she was drawn in the carpark! You’ve two options at Southwell in that situation – you drop her in, hold up, and face the kick back – no chance – and you wouldn’t want a youngster getting a face full of that muck – that’s a quick way to send her sour I suspect. OR you rush her up on the outside and be very very forceful – if you’ve a youngster on second start, one who’s been keen on 1st run and who you want to teach how to race – you really don’t want to be doing that either – so, he took the halfway house option and kept her wide the whole way – the 2nd was rated 79 there – getting beat 15 lengths looks decent enough actually, esp if trip too short/outpaced also-

      her run LTO- after another break, prob giving time to develop a bit more or work on her more at home- she blew the start – i’m not sure a jockey can make a horse, in a stall – rear on demand??? Maybe some can – her front two legs were up in the air as stalls opened and she fell out. Game over really – not that she had a chance in hell in that race either – the winner bolted up off 76 and looks at least a mid 80s animal. Clearly far superior animals in front of her at this stage of development.

      If she has a ‘cheating profile’ , then 80% of horses running in maidens and going into handicaps all have a cheating profile also!! Which may well be your view but given we have handicaps, bringing along horses slowly (esp when not graded beasts or want wins for breeding etc) is the game, gradually letting them come to hand and when entering handicaps running in more suitable races.
      If they wanted to ‘have it off’, given the prices in those maidens, they could have had a go then, if they knew what they had.

      And now she rocks up off 45, in a C6 – clearly racing up against horses in the low 50s here is going to be much more suitable than racing against high 70s/80s horses which she has been in her maidens.

      I find it odd that , for a gamble, Appleby would use a jockey he’s never used before, and an inexperienced 7lb claimer at that. Albeit one with a good record here, and he can ride. It could be she is a 60s horse and we will see that today, but if she had that much in hand, and were laying out for a touch, i’m a bit miffed why they haven’t used Ali, or a more experienced jockey.

      Her whole story/profile makes perfect legitimate sense to my weary eyes! There’s no cheating going on there – not unless you call every handicap debutant who steps forward/wins, a clear cheat.

      She may well bolt up, and can see why many would have a go at bigger prices. Mick A is only 5/60 with handicap debutants in last two years, it’s not an approach he uses regularly for successful gambles etc.

      She could be getting better with racing, will no doubt have come on from that last run, and she steps back into a high school athletics race, rather than say the diamond league!! 🙂

      actual cheating… well that looks like the JP/Olly Murphy/Aidan Coleman horse at Warwick a few weeks back – in a novice, never seen such a clear instance of a jumps horse not achieving best possible position, it could have hacked up.

      Josh 02/05/19 12:35 PM Reply


    • Hi Andy
      strong word cheating sadly these smaller trainers have to do what they can to get a decent HC mark, and it has had it first three runs in class 5 races and today in its first HC it is dropping down to class 6 which probably is its grade.
      Todays race is worth £3,105 to the winner not going to make much impression on a years training and vet fees the problem in UK is the prize money and so they have to manipulate the rules so the owners can have a decent punt to keep the horse in training, not ideal but when CEO of 365 pays herself £269 million salary, that is whats wrong.
      Ask Brendan Powell what he thinks of prize money, my mate Dai Had 80 horses in training and he went bankrupt now he has about 15.
      It is a very hard game to make a living when you only have low grade horses.
      Hope it wins for you all.
      Colin.
      PS have a listen to Jamie Osbourne on Lambourn Trainers, someone on twitter accused him of being crooked, bent and used the F word.

      cleafe 02/05/19 1:00 PM Reply


      • Maybe I should have put a smiley after Cheating 🙂
        Like I said it maybe something or nothing.
        I understand where you’re both coming from and it’s a take it or leave situation.
        This may be another educational run, who knows, but other eyes may have seen something else too hence it being tipped elsewhere at big prices.
        I certainly poked the bear making Josh watch reruns of a horse at Southwell!!!!!!!!!!!
        SBC El Presidente (in waiting)

        Andy G 02/05/19 1:52 PM Reply


        • haha – I’m just a bit odd, don’t worry!! I like to explain a horse’s ‘journey’ / profile in my own mind, esp when we are dealing with youngsters – they’re not robots/machines and connections have to mind them/ and introduce them to racing in a way which ensures they don’t hurt themselves, that they race in the most efficient way, and that they’re still in love with the game down the line etc. In 85%+ of examples I think there is usually a legitimate reason for why a horse has run as it has, esp youngsters in maidens/early in career –
          I won’t be shocked if that one bolts up today (I’ve long missed the price!) – but it won’t be because they’ve been playing silly buggers etc in my opinion- I can legitimately explain each one of those runs, and why she ran as she did, in my own mind – with the view she was there to run well each time.
          Her maiden form would suggest she’s better than this mark, so something to work on, and maybe we will see a different animal. She’ll enjoy running against these other moderate horses for sure. The pace she’s showed at times in previous races is the sort that would put you easily holding a handy position against this lot!
          Best of luck!
          Josh

          Josh 02/05/19 2:00 PM Reply


        • New applications always welcome (for this club that is not infact a club to get all flustered about club) ..infact the doors are always open ..just tip the doorman on the way in .. we always encourage outside of da box thinkers in these never regions ….. mc will fill you in on all the legal jargon …….. lol 🙂
          gb
          vp

          George B 02/05/19 2:01 PM Reply


    • Turns out it was more nothing. 🙂
      But I won’t remove it from the tracker just yet…

      Andy G 02/05/19 5:00 PM Reply


      • hmm, she could just be useless haha. Yea, keep an eye on, maybe she needs a hell of a lot further.

        Josh 02/05/19 5:02 PM Reply


      • nope … the jockey didn’t seem to bothered about being out the back either …. as you say worth another look ?? 🙂 .. . the plot thickens 🙂 … keep ’em coming 🙂
        gb 🙂

        George B 02/05/19 5:04 PM Reply


  • have had a quick look but nothing stands out so no selections today.
    i have done Martins 2 at Punchy , Nick’s and as stated above Sunbright @33’s in Southwell 4-45.
    very busy day as i’m standing for local council wish me luck as i’ll need it don’t have a snowballs chance in hell but as we all know a big outsider does come in every now and again 🙂

    Martin Whittle 02/05/19 7:12 AM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Covered in ‘Test Zone’ above

    Titus 02/05/19 7:51 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    Southwell
    2.05 Contingency Fee BOG 7/2
    4.10 Sooqaan BOG 14/1
    Chelmsford
    6.55 Admiral Rook BOG 8/1
    ELITE BETS
    2.45 Musselburgh Kajaki BOG 9/4
    2.55 Redcar Gentle Look BOG 11/2
    8.10 Salisbury Earthly BOG 10/1
    NEW METHOD
    Southwell
    4.10 Liamba BOG 6/1
    5.15 High Command BOG 2/1
    Redcar
    4.35 Dancin Boy BOG 5/1
    5.10 Firsteen BOG 10/1
    7.05 Salisbury Past Master BOG 7/2
    7.55 Chelmsford Poets Prince BOG 11/4
    Colin

    cleafe 02/05/19 10:17 AM Reply


  • Jamie Osbourne just had a listen to him on Lambourn Trainers where he his sweet on Capofara which he has given positive messages twice before when winning at 5/1 and 5/1 nothing like that today 9/4 best at the moment, he puts the message out free of charge along with his time and over the 6 months or so since have tuned in he his totally honest and above board with his previews on his runners.
    Message today alarming for he thanked the person who on twitter called him crooked, bent and also used the F word about him, all because he mentioned two 2 year olds who both ran poor races, both will probably win next time or the time after, sadly what do people want for FREE.
    Angry Colin. Grr, Grr

    cleafe 02/05/19 11:57 AM Reply


  • SBC Alert

    Hello G, Andy and anyone else interested. If you are playing at Southwell, here are my musings for what they are worth. A good day on a poor card yesterday so worth a go.

    2.00 – I like Contingency Fee against the fav here.

    2.35 – Mr Music is a worthy favourite but Mama Africa might be worth a small bet. She might be best in small fields and looks the only runner likely to blast off in front.

    4.10 – Thunder Buddy for Martin’s KB micro is worth another go EW, but for the win I like My Town Chicago, another who may well have an uncontested lead over a trip where prominent runners do well.

    4.45 – With our lovely 16/1 winner yesterday Atalanta Queen a NR, Capofaro looks a solid fav though as Jamie says, not tested on this unique track. I’m going to save on Port Soif, a front runner along with Capofaro but obviously Andy’s earlier highlighting of wily Mr Appleby’s Sunbright has to be taken into account.

    Any views on this G, or some for later at Chelmers? I have a few to look into for tonight so will post back here between 3 and 4.

    All the best

    Mark Curtis 02/05/19 11:57 AM Reply


    • S.B.C. MEMO

      3.35 Southwell : Esprit De Corps / Furzio
      5.10 Southwell : Katie Gale = very excited about this one e/w .. should go close ?

      gl/gb 🙂

      George B 02/05/19 1:09 PM Reply


      • SBC All Weather Memo :
        System Notables :
        6.55 Chelmers Global Exceed / Spennys Lass
        7.05 Chelmers Mandalayan / Lissitzky
        7.55 Chelmers Big Kitten

        That’s about all i can see at a very quick glance .. low low stakes for me …. have fun out there !
        gl/gb

        George B 02/05/19 1:25 PM Reply


  • 5.55 Salisbury is an interesting race with Mrs Worthington 25/1 ISP and 38 on Betfair exchange the horse that may well outrun the odds…was running on at Kempton over 6f getting third…She is out of a Dark Angel sire that is a good 7f pedigree and think the horse represents good e/w value…. I do have a soft spot for progeny of Dark Angel so did a course adjustment (so that my heart did not rule my head!) with the short priced fav Alhakmah and Mrs Worthington’s speed over the same distance came in at 37.54 with the fav clocking 37.83 mph so at the prices I would rather back Mrs Worthington e/w….She’s Got You should not be underestimated against both the mentioned horses running up to 37 mph over an extended 7f at Wolv and 36.98 mph over 7f at Kempton.I would also expect Princesse Bassett to improve as the horse was running on over 7f at Kempton clocking 36.50…but my money is on Mrs. Worthington e/w with a saver on She’s Got You. gd lck with whatever you back.

    silver 02/05/19 12:54 PM Reply


    • Interesting pointers as ever “Silver” thank you …. enjoy your day giving out equine speeding tickets 😉
      gb/sbc

      George B 02/05/19 1:28 PM Reply


    • p.s. and trainer had a winner yesterday as well … so interesting e/w for mr gb as well now .. thanks …. 😉 …. i shall be clocking it on my tom tom !! 🙂

      George B 02/05/19 1:33 PM Reply


      • Thanks…just hope that at worst the horse places or better gets that speeding ticket, otherwise proverbial egg on face.

        silver 02/05/19 2:24 PM Reply


        • yep .. i am great advocate of the tbp market on betfair .. so we shall see 🙂 thanks again 😉
          gb 🙂

          George B 02/05/19 2:47 PM Reply


        • Silver you never need to worry about egg on face, you can barely make out us Silly Boys visages for oeufs.:-)

          Mark Curtis 02/05/19 3:27 PM Reply


          • Good stuff…must be silly season day with bigger prices attracting speculative bets but nothing ventured etc either that or scrambled eggs for brains!

            silver 02/05/19 4:34 PM Reply


  • Hi Mr mc man in control ……….. just winding down here ready for my few days enforced rest ( i am hoping my typing fingers won’t be compromised over the weekend 😉 )
    from your notes above mc :
    2.00 – I like Contingency Fee against the fav here.
    gb : on my new weight move micro as well 😉

    2.35 – Mr Music is a worthy favourite but Mama Africa might be worth a small bet. She might be best in small fields and looks the only runner likely to blast off in front.
    gb : Mr Music has good track/surface & trainer track positives 😉 and i really do like Mama Africa as well …………. all good

    4.10 – Thunder Buddy for Martin’s KB micro is worth another go EW, but for the win I like My Town Chicago, another who may well have an uncontested lead over a trip where prominent runners do well.
    gb : i like these two on my systems plus Beautiful Artist

    4.45 – With our lovely 16/1 winner yesterday Atalanta Queen a NR, Capofaro looks a solid fav though as Jamie says, not tested on this unique track. I’m going to save on Port Soif, a front runner along with Capofaro but obviously Andy’s earlier highlighting of wily Mr Appleby’s Sunbright has to be taken into account.
    gb : thinking along the same lines as you my friend 🙂

    i’ll keep looking and if any pop up for later i will advise old chap 🙂
    gl/gb 😉

    George B 02/05/19 1:01 PM Reply


    • Thanks G, good man. Is the procedure tomorrow? Make sure your typing fingers are kept well away 🙂

      Mark Curtis 02/05/19 1:07 PM Reply


      • yep .. i would like to be known as Georgina .. as of tomorrow afternoon .. 🙂

        gl/gb 🙂

        George B 02/05/19 1:11 PM Reply


        • Should we change the name of the club that isn’t a club? 🙂

          Will post ‘re tonight here laters.

          Mark Curtis 02/05/19 1:34 PM Reply


          • SBC CHELMSFORD UPDATE

            Well the SBs are winning with Mama Africa obliging earlier at Southwell and a couple still to run. G, I looked at Katie Gale, why are you so excited about it – it wasn’t obvious 🙂 I’d be really interested to know what boxes it ticks for you.

            6.55 – pretty competitive, cannot see why Nautical Haven has been made favourite unless we don’t know about something? I like Global Exceed, Spenny’s Lass and Time to Reason although Mr Kingscote on the latter will need to overcome a poor draw.

            7.25 – I think the Charltons fav can be beaten and like Royal Intervention to do it. Beau Warrior is interesting at a bigger price, and I may have gone completely mad but I fancy Fen Breeze to squeak an EW extra place at 100/1.

            7.55 – He needs it all to go his way but Nonios is worth a punt in this. Big Kitten the obvious danger.

            8.25 – Derevo is a worthy fav for Stoutey (41% win/63% place when teaming up with Mr Smiley at this track last five years) but at a price I like Duckett’s Grove as a sporting alternative.

            8.55 – There is not much between Percy Alexander and Mr Fox at the weights but the former’s T/J figures over the last year are 43% win/62% place which sways me to Percy.

            All the best for tonight if you play, and all the very best to my esteemed Vice-President GB for tomorrow’s hospital visit, let me know how it goes when you are up to it.

            Mark Curtis 02/05/19 4:07 PM Reply


            • Well the SBs are winning with Mama Africa obliging earlier at Southwell and a couple still to run. G, I looked at Katie Gale, why are you so excited about it – it wasn’t obvious I’d be really interested to know what boxes it ticks for you.
              well …deep breathe
              1/. This time my wifes shortened name .. lol
              2/. stallion for course and distance
              3/. trainer / course
              4/. good draw (in this month 😉 )
              5/. jockey and trainer in rude health
              just can’t leave it alone … will be uploading more and more on the 3tbp on good old bf !! … i am well up this afters … so will have a go 😉 but have the full pound e/w ????? steady as she blows !!!
              thanks for your thoughts .. will be packing my overnight tonight so will look from a far .. good luck 🙂 thanks for your kind wishes … i ‘ll try to leave the nurses alone ..promise ! 🙂

              George B 02/05/19 4:15 PM Reply


              • Ooh Matron,….. 🙂

                Mark Curtis 02/05/19 4:21 PM Reply


  • 7.25 Chelms. Intriguing race…I think the first two in the betting will take a lot of beating…Red Impression clocked 39.38 mph …has a wide draw to overcome and is closely matched by the second fav Royal Intervention running a course adjusted speed of 38.75 mph…Beau Warrior has run 39.07 and is drawn ok unlike Red Impression…. the former has the speed to get across and still be competitive…the interesting runner for me is Blame Roberta currently 50/1 ISP and 80’s on Betfair exchange….This horse ran over 5f at Mussel. 38.27 over 5f…in comparison with her own run at Bath, over 5.045 f, with course adjustment this is the equivalent to running 39.48 mph…now she will have to go some to beat Red Impression but is better drawn and she was running on at Bath so if she can match the class of the other horses mentioned she may well out run the huge odds….~I may have lost my marbles and completely lost the plot but at the price I think I will have a small investment…the poor house beckons as does the people in white coat!!!!…Gd lck with whatever you decide to back.

    silver 02/05/19 4:10 PM Reply


    • hi silver ….. you are getting me at it again 🙂 ….. trainer had winner yesterday ..and hayley is on fire .. e/w place ..rude not too !! 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂

      George B 02/05/19 4:23 PM Reply


      • Apologies for that but price is too big…may be complete mismatch but at that price worth a pound or two.

        silver 02/05/19 4:27 PM Reply


        • don’t worry silver .. i am amismatch in this life really …. i am used to it …… so all good 🙂
          gb 🙂

          George B 02/05/19 4:37 PM Reply


    • We could share the big white taxi with the flashing lights when I back Fen Breeze 🙂

      Mark Curtis 02/05/19 4:24 PM Reply


      • i dutch on the horses we might as well ducth on the taxi fare as well !

        George B 02/05/19 4:27 PM Reply


      • Now that is funny…on the upside will not have to pay the fare!

        silver 02/05/19 4:28 PM Reply


    • Well…definitely white coat job and white taxi for me…got the analysis wrong on both races…..back to the drawing board…apologies to George B and MC and anyone else following me in….selections ran no sort of race though thought at one stage Blame Roberta would place but not to be and Mrs Worthington far too keen so re-evaluation time and hopefully will get more accuracy going forwards. Will try and do better .

      silver 02/05/19 8:05 PM Reply


      • No worries Silver, you didn’t make us back them 🙂 We all decide our own fate when following or not following those who are brave enough to post here, keep on keeping on 🙂

        The Rebel MC
        VP SBC

        Mark Curtis 02/05/19 8:40 PM Reply


        • Cheers.

          silver 02/05/19 8:44 PM Reply


Post A Reply