Members Daily Post: 29/04/19 (complete)

Punchestown notes etc, Section 1 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

Thirsk

7.10 –

Arvacallo   (micro TJC) 14/1 

Black Isle Boy   (m TJC) I3 7/1 

Mostahel  (4yo+,m’s dist,class and age) 28/1 

8.10 – Ninjago   (4yo+) 16/1 

 

Windsor

6.30 – Hes Amazing   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 9/1 S3A 

7.30 – C’Est No Mour   (all Hc’s) 11/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/53, 15p +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

 

Nothing from me today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

None.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Punchestown Trainer pointers : 

READ HERE>>>

Day 1 Handicap Pointer

4.55 2m 1/2 handicap hurdle

Trainer Records (with runners)

  • W Mullins: 3/32, 8p
  • G Elliot: 1/17,2p 
  • N Meade: 1/24, 2p 

 

‘Micro’ qualifiers from the report above to follow in Tuesday’s post

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

43 Responses

  1. Hes Amazing Windsor 18:30 1pt e/w-12/1-Looked interesting at the price. Only found the now 107 rated Raymond Tusk too good on his first run of the season last year with the rest beaten including several which are now rated 90+ and went on to win a class 3 over 10f on handicap debut off 82. He was than highly tried on his next two starts and didn’t seem to get on with the headgear after that. Has since moved trainers to Ed Walker who has an excellent 15/54, 28p in handicaps at the track since the start of 2015. (which improves to 7/17, 9p in class 4s and 5/11, 7p with 4 year olds) He drops into a class 4 here and now races off 80. Oisin Murphy is on for the first time since that win (his only ever ride on the horse). He has won on his last 2 starts for the trainer.
    Black Isle Boy Thirsk 19:10 1pt e/w-8/1-Won this last year and returns off 2lbs lower. Has always been best fresh and has won on both his first starts of the season. Is drawn high which is where you want to be at Thirsk and should be up there with the pace and I am fairly sure this will have been the plan.

    I will have one more in the morning.

      1. haha, that made me smile, if only because we have all been there before Stan!! And smile is all you can do. Need to try and remember a winner you backed by mistake! 🙂

  2. Monday 29th April Windsor, Southwell and Newcastle
    I can’t find a bet amongst this lot,I like Isobar Wind and Littledidyouknow but not at the prices.
    Windsor 5.25 5f Novice
    3.75 Isobar Wind, Kuwait Direction, Top Buck
    3.25 Port Winston, I’m Digby, Emtem
    Prior report from debut…Isobar Wind – It is the fact that this one did not get in amongst them which leads me to feel that the first 4 may be better than is usually seen this early in the season. Smaller strong type, looked very fit in the paddock but appears to be carrying a bit of belly in the photo. Should win nto at a lesser track 73
    I think Isobar Wind came up against a couple of good ones lto at Nottingham, today he gets his chance at a lesser track. Kuwait Direction is very short but like Love Love at Salisbury on Sunday the market may well indicate the Hannon expectations quite accurately. The odd one out may be Alan King’s Port Winston. He used to get them ready fto but seems to be more of a 2to trainer nowadays.

    Southwell 2.40 5f Med Auc Mdn
    3.75 Littledidyouknow, Bendy Spirit
    2.25 Bettys Hope, Elevate Her, Prosecutor
    Given that Littledidyouknow is US bred by Due Diligence and has already won here I would favour her over Bettys Hope and Bendy Spirit.

    Newcastle 2.50 5f Novice
    4.25 Dutch Decoy
    3.75 Full Authority
    3.25 Good Night Mr Tom
    Both Strive For Glory and Keep Busy worth a second glance.
    Hugh

  3. 7.10 Thirsk – Black Isle Boy
    Nick’s stolen my thunder but not the glory 🙂
    He’s already said it above…
    Dangers:
    Pennsylvannia Dutch is in rude health. Finished a neck & SH behind BiB last year off OR80 and this year meets on similar terms but with a 5lb claimer riding it is in effect 3lb better off taking into account the lower OR BiB runs off but I’d say a strong Tudhope should offset that.
    Also, a mention for Mr Wagyu. HTF it was ridden LTO is a mystery. Really well handicapped now & saver horse

  4. System selections : Southwell all weather 6F front runners.

    4.15 Sir Ottoman and Socialites Red.

    Good luck.

  5. today’s selections.
    Windsor.
    6-00. Just For The Craic 8-1 4 places
    7-30. Tiar Na Nog 8-1
    Thirsk.
    5-05. You Little Beauty 12-1
    6-40. Dancing Speed 25-1 bv 4 places

  6. Upstaging Thirsk 19:10 1pt e/w (I will record at 33/1 although still 40-50/1 available)-I think I have already found the winner in this but I couldn’t leave this one at the price. If you look at his runs in cheek pieces on 6f flat track returning within 5 weeks he has barely had a bad race. Just last September he was 2 lengths away in a class 2 off 10lbs higher. If he runs to that he wil go extremely close. Even his last run last time produced the 2nd best GGG speed rating here. He would have needed it last time and there is also the chance the trainer switch has perked him up. This is his first run in class 4 company for 2.5 years. Trainer has had a winner recently and has a solid 3/18, 4p record here in handicaps int he past 2 years including an 80/1 winner so price doesn’t seem important with the yard. He races prominently and is drawn high. There is a chance he is totally out of love with the game but at the price there are enough reasons here to have a go.

  7. COLINS BETS
    3.30 Wolverhampton Ebqaa BOG 7/1
    4.15 Southwell Katheefa BOG 11/4
    6.40 Thirsk Strawberry Jack BOG 7/2
    6.40 Thirsk Ventura Bay BOG 15/2
    ELITE BETS
    Thirsk
    7.40 Subliminal BOG 9/1
    7.40 Buckland Boy BOG 13/2
    7.40 Duke Of Alba BOG 9/2
    NEW METHOD
    3.20 Newcastle Royal Cosmic BOG 7/1
    4.25 Newcastle Trevithick BOG 5/1
    5.10 Wolverhampton Party Royal BOG 20/1
    Colin

  8. Great to have some competitive racing mid week not the best quality but competitive racing.
    Why the BHA persist on poor quality NH meetings they should close down for at least 4 weeks or longer like they did in the past and let the jockeys ,staff and trainers have a decent break, last week
    22 April Chepstow 7 races 28 runners = 4 runners per race
    Huntingdon 7 races 44 runners = 6 runners
    Plumpton 7 Races 43 runners = 6 runners
    24 April Fontwell 7 races 35 runners = 5 runners
    25 April Kempton 7 races 23 runners = 3 runners
    Wonder what the attendance at these meetings attracted, and we wonder why Clerk of the Courses make false claims on going.
    Colin.

  9. MC … just to many qualifiers on the all weather bonanza today my friend 🙁
    will post anything interesting when if i can 🙂
    cheers
    gb 🙂

    1. Hiya G, yes I agree, totally overwhelmed by three AW meetings when my tiny brain generally only deals with one lol. In view of my poor recent form gonna be more selective and resist the urge to go through the cards.

      So for your edification:

      15.10 Southwell – I think the Crisford horse is favourite due to his good stats with horses after a break but I like the course form of Lennybe and Native Silver, the latter being my selection.

      14.00 Wolverhampton – Miss Enigma has a good draw and t/j stats of 33% win/75% place at track over five years.

      16.05 Rockesbury has t/j stats of 37% win/place over last 12 months. Has CD form and a pipe opener the other week. An EW play may be Little Miss Daisy if she can drop in from a disadvantageous draw, that is factored into her price.

      17.10 I fear the McLintock fav but like Up Ten Down Two for Easterby, jock has won on the horse before, stats are 60% win/80% place over five years, a very strong EW bet in my view.

      So a muted MC today, hoping a more selective approach will prove better. Still be interested to see any of your fancies of course, I expect I can find some change down the back of the sofa 🙂

      1. OH ! … to be blissfully retired and just have all my morning time for systems .. one day .. i can but dream my friend ! 🙂 then i might have the cance of being as good as you one day ! 😉
        14.00 WOLVERINE SUPERSEDED ( TRACK SYSTEM / J.I.F.)
        14.10 SOUTHWEL BISCUIT QUEEN (TRACK / BLINKERS ON / J.I.F.)
        15.30 WOLVERS EBQAA ( TRACK SYSTEM / BUT NOT WELL DRAWN?)
        15.45 SOUTHWELL MUQARRED ( TRACK / SIRE SYSTEM )
        15.55 NEWCASTLE EMPLOYER ( TRACK SYSTEM WELL DRAWN )
        16.05 WOLVS ROCKESBURY ( J.I.F.)
        16.05 WOLVES SHAMLAN ( TRACK SYSTEM / WELL DRAWN)
        16.05 WOLVES LITTLE MISS DAISY ( SHOWS AS WELL DRAWN 4U ?)
        16.15 SOUTHWELL BIG BRAVE BOB ( TRACK SYSTEM / WELL DRAWN)
        But we are fighting against my wifes first name and pro worthy fav KATH-EEFA
        17.10 WOLVS UP TEN DOWN TWO ( SHOWS AS GOOD DRAW)
        ( hope it wins for you/us my friend 🙂 )
        17.20 SOUTHWELL RAJAPUR / THAHAB IFRAJ
        ( trialling new down in weight system at southwell )

        DON’T FORGET NOT TIPS OR ANYTHING SERIOUS LIKE THAT 🙂
        S.B.C. INFO PURPOSES ONLY
        Have fun out there !!
        gl/gb 🙂

          1. well more from learned colleague and club thats not a club member mr mc maestro …… all good thanks 🙂

        1. Even retired at 58 years of age I still only have a couple of hours to look at the racing of a morning, out with the pooch from 9 till 10.45 🙂 Still, beats working!

          Thanks for your list, pleased we agree on a few 🙂 Trainer says Little Miss Daisy has poor draw and will need to be dropped in and wait for the gaps, hence the risk 🙁

          Yes, nice win from Miss Enigma, glad you kept the faith, on we go!

          1. Emmmmm .Indeed .. in a very worrying e/w double with KATHEEFA ..LOL …Dont worry got no chance with a name like hers 🙂
            gl/gb 🙂

          2. Yep just out picking up my car … understand ifraj won and kathy lost thank goodness 🙂 cheers wingman mc 🙂

      2. well well little miss daisy … that’s another light n bitter i owe u old bean …. great selection .. was well drawn .. lol 🙂

        1. Yes, you can’t keep the Silly Boys down for long! Just picked up a few more quid thanks to Mrs GB at Southwell 🙂 well done Gmeister

  10. Going to be too late for an afternoon post as I’m still putting it all back together on the HCP front and the afternoon’s AW novice no hcp races aren’t up too much so nothing of interest there.

    Think I’ve got them into better shape now having tightened up a fair amount of the qualifying criteria. Probably have gone too far and have no qualifiers left at all now ;). Fairly confident that it will resolve the six horses in the same race paradox. Won’t know for sure till mid afternoon when I get it to run it again with today’s declarations data.

    Back with an update about 4.00 and maybe some bets to go with it too.

  11. Just a note on the 3.10 Southwell….C5 fibresand event where Alexander James for Iain Jardine’s runner demolished the field by 13 lengths..I wanted to check the time and pedigree for future reference….the pedigree is full of stamina and the time for a C5 was run just above average for the grade…with normal progression the horse should prove worthy of support in the long term and would not be surprised if the horse performed well over jumps and in soft or gd to soft ground..the average time I use to assess the quality of a race has Alexander James clocking 36.87 mph in this race….my average for the 8f is 36.74 mph…the standard time for the course according to figures from Racing Post is 98.2 seconds…the actual race time was 100.65 (2.45 slower than standard) I always calculate the final times by deducting a going allowance…assuming the fibre sand is good to soft my going allowance is to deduct .3 seconds per furlong….the actual distance of the race was 8f and 13 yds = 8.05 furlongs. If the going is equated with turf gd/soft the final time = 98.23 secs…so close to the standard time…if the going is calculated as equivalent to soft turf then the adjustment for going is .65 seconds per furlong so the final time would be 100.65 secs – 5.23 secs, giving a final time of 95.42 seconds = 37.96 mph which would be considerably above the average of 36.74 mph…the truth is probably somewhere in between the two but augers well for the future of the horse given natural progression. Certainly, from that performance, the horse is worth tracking for the future.

  12. Oh my god you are back nick mazur great news got 14 – 1 this morning so pleased for you nick

    1. Second that – great stuff, and what an appropriately named horse Nick ! 🙂
      Just awaiting the other 2 in the 7.10 now.

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