Members Daily Post: 28/04/19 (complete)

A quiet day ahead…

Nothing on Sunday.

No section 1. No stats for Salisbury or Wetherby in my stats pack..  which will be complete next week and I’ll post a link when it’s done.

No test zone micro angle qualifiers.

Punchestown is the main focus next week and I’ve a few trainer stats to finish researching on Monday. I’ll try and do a better job of judging these unexposed handicappers at the top of the market!  Albeit I’ll be saying that forever more no doubt. It’s usually a bad day for me in a big chase when a 6s<  morning odds bolts up as has happened in Irish Nat and Bet365 and to lesser extent at Perth. Whatever the right approach to those is I’ve never been sure, but it can’t have a neg impact on picking out the biggies (8/10/12/14+) which long  term is where the profit lies in these big handicap chases. Always something to ponder in this great game.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

20 Responses

  1. after missing yesterday i’ll have a crack at Sunday.
    Today’s selections.
    Salisbury 5-40. Hedging 15-2 wh 5 places
    Wetherby.
    3-50. Baby Steps 11-1
    4-55. Twin Appeal 9-1 sky 4 places
    5-55. Steel River 15-2
    all 1/2 pt ew

  2. Not a regular form reader but thought I would have a go at plucking out a few overpriced ones:

    3.50 Wetherby – Baby Steps 1pt ew @ 11/1
    4.25 Wetherby – One to go 1pt ew @ 9/1 (nap)
    5.25 Wetherby – Uncle Norman 1pt ew @ 9/1

    1. Really feel for you at present Nick, but am certain things will come good as we move further on into the Flat. Take care. 🙂

      1. Thanks John. I will get there. I checked my stats and the last time I lost more than 10 points in a month was March 2017. Over the past year or so me and Josh have continuously joked about how I am due a bad run and it had to happen sooner or later. The game is not that easy. I am still on the whole beating starting price (the way Masham Star got smashed from 20/1 to 8/1 yesterday in a relatively short period of time someone must have thought he was going to go extremely close) Yes some recent picks haven’t been great but I don’t think that’s different from the past but they do stick out more when the good picks aren’t doing well for one reason or another.

        1. Hello Nick,
          I think someone summed it up well previously, class is permanent and form is temporary.
          How are the figures looking for this year so far?

          Jim

        2. Thanks Nick – interesting. Yes i am sure you will get there. To go over 2 years with such positive results and hardly any Minus months is great consistency. Just out of curiosity how long have you been doing this (either for self or sharing here) and are you pretty much using same approaches over that period, maybe with a few tweaks here and there? Also, if you don’t mind me asking how long does it take you on an average day ( Saturdays and Sundays will vary most i guess) to work through things and arrive at your selections? Thanks.

          1. I think 4 years or so. Possibly a little less on the flat. As to time generally 2-4 hours sometimes more.

          2. Thanks Nick. That’s one hell of a time commitment – especially if you are working too. I think we should all be greatly indebted to you and Josh of course for full time and all the others who spend so much time trying to gain profitable angles and are prepared to share them.

  3. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.35 Salisbury Guildhall BOG 11/4
    4.40 Salisbury Scaramnga BOG 3/1
    The purple patch continued yesterday with a 7/1 winner from only bet
    NEW METHOD
    4.40 Salisbury Scaramanga BOG 3/1
    Colin

  4. Yes good luck for May nick it seems when tipping big prices things can go very wrong very quickly plenty of good tipsters I have followed have dropped off the planet when they have a bad run confidence seems to erode away I am sure you will bounce back

  5. Slow start on Sunday ..currently looking at some stakes races so will put them up as I do them:
    2.00 Salisbury…down to seven runners again and hard to see past the fav Exclusively..Above average horse running 38.43 mph…nearest rivals Good vibes 37.76 mph, Bainne Dubh 37.97 mph so short price justified as also has the best pedigree.

    1. Navan 2.05…below average bunch….of those that have run nothing inspires..Feminista 36.71 mph…Shining Forth 36.63…Allhallow Tide 36.45 mph…. Pedigrees are again just ok… the AP O’brien runners have to be respected and have to be considered… the trainer M D O’Callaghan’s runner has an excellent pedigree and the trainer is 31% with 2 year olds so that will be the choice for me the prices e/w …I personally will be having a small bet on the runner but it is up to yourselves if this is a race to risk any of your hard earned on as Irish racing notorious to get a handle on and anything could pop in.

      1. 2.15 Wetherby…tricky race as those that have run and are the first three in the betting are closely matched and there is no value in their prices…Regular ran 37.54 mph, White coat 37.30, Irreverent 37.96 so hard to split them…Fahey and Gosden have the best trainer stats so for me, at the prices and as these horses have run above average times not sure if a new comer will be able to compete so a NO bet for me but hope the above is helpful.

        1. 2.30 Salisbury… Voltaic at the prices e/w has the best course and distance adjusted figures of 38.05 mp. and is a backable e/w price…favs .Real Smooth are 40% (17/42) and Night Watch are very closely matched in terms of speed so another tricky race both have run 37.70 mph. gd lck if playing

  6. No bets from me today. I’m investing a little time into sorting out these handicaps, but it’s proving to be tougher than I thought. Seems to be heading in the right direction though. (Less is more). 😉

    1. Tim
      Do not tinker with them too much i have always been guilty of doing this and in most cases it does not work long term, and with the figures and profit you put up a couple of weeks ago was it over 5 years then they will do for me.
      Colin.

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