Free Daily Post: 27/04/19 (complete)

Free Tips 

(2019: 2/33,5p, +2 , +15 BFSP)

3.35 Sandown 

Rolling Dylan – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) 23.00 Betfexch  UP (5th)

Vyta Du Roc – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) 30.00 Betfexch UP

West Approach – 1 point win – 18/1 (gen) 20.00 Betfexch UP (6th)

ah well two of them ran ok, but never in winning contention really… sadly the 7/2-9/2 fav (morning prices across board) won this in fine style, his SP a bit more like it at 7s. He was one of two unexposed ones, and i’m not shocked one of them bolted up given the profiles, but when under 8s, for young horses in big fields, first go beyond 3m, then i usually take them on. That hasn’t worked out in this or the Irish National this time. 

 

Rolling Dylan … the first of three pokes in this but he looks interesting enough at his price, for a yard that knows what’s needed to win this race. Unlike many in here he turns up having run his race LTO, running on, not beaten far. That was lugging 11-12 around at Taunton, over 3m4f, and he wasn’t stopping come the end. He hasn’t run a bad race all season really and his best chase efforts this year have been with plenty of ‘good’ in the going description. The Cheltenham run four starts back was decent, staying on all the way to the line. He’s got course experience and has navigated these fences with no issues, two starts back. He appeared to get outpaced there turning for home but plugged on, on ground that may have been too soft. In truth he’s probably a decent EW bet, esp with those paying 5 places – I don’t think he’ll be too far away here if running his race… his issue is that he is a bit of a thinker. He can get a bit lonely when hitting the front and he may look like the winner, hit the front after the last, and get caught late on. We shall see, but at 20s I was happy to roll the dice. 

Vyta Du Roc… I tipped this one in this race in April 17, at a double figure price before he was well backed. Sadly I think DJ rode to the wrong finishing post there, thinking he had a bit further, but in any case it was on the nod. Stamina isn’t a problem for him, clearly the track isn’t, and nor is the ground. It’s not impossible he’s better on a decent surface but I don’t want to use the ground as an excuse for his last two efforts. It could be he’s had a few problems. Anyway, were he not wearing 1st time visor, I couldn’t touch him. That’s the sole reason for why he may be a transformed character here. His best recent run, last January, when hacking up at Cheltenham (admittedly in a weak race) was wearing 1st time Cheekpieces. I hope DJ may be aggressive in this headgear, and try to perk him up. It’s a coin toss. I think it will be obvious very early if i’m to get a run for my money, as he could bounce out, jump superbly, and just keep galloping with ease near the front end. Or he never picks up the bridle, and it’s game over early! It could be he just never took to the X Country course LTO, and that would be a valid excuse for such an effort,  albeit at least he completed. Anyway, given his form in this race, and with no issues over stamina or the ground, and with the headgear, I fancied a go at 25s. It’s all about the first 4 fences and how he’s travelling early I think. Fingers crossed. 

West Approach… another poke here but as with the stats work below he’s another to hit my stats/trends shortlist, which may not count for much, but he’s got an interesting profile. He’s clearly had some issues, many in the head I suspect, but has run the odd decent race this season, inc his seasonal debut over fences in October. He’s another where the ground doesn’t look an issue. He’s run some good races over hurdles this year, in Grade 1s, and now returns to fences. It could be he just doesn’t like chasing anymore, but he’s unexposed in handicap chases and Jonjo Junior’s claim will help. Trainer/jockey are 3/9,4p when teaming up in the last year. So, he may not jump, or travel that well! And he may not stay… however, he did cruise into last year’s Scottish National, approaching 4 from home, before stamina gave way – and he may have over-raced in blinkers there also. Anyway, he’s unproven over it and shapes as if worth a go. It would be a fitting end to the season… Tizzzard taking a big staying handicap chase, and the new kid on the block winning one. 

So, three pokes there. I think all three could win, obviously, and may be overpriced to do so… however plenty of risks attached with all of them. I’m most confident of getting a spin from Rolling Dylan. The other two may be struggling from some way out and I have nothing to cheer. 

I just didn’t like anything else at the prices. 

Last night I fancied Captain Chaos, and he was my first pick. I thought there may be some cut if the forecast rain arrived overnight but it didn’t. And the forecasts have been wrong all week, hence the ground being quicker than ideal. Not much the clerk could do, had he watered more and the rain arrived, it would be proper soft etc. Thankfully for me Skelton pulled him out, as he wouldn’t have put down on this it seems, it looks lively enough. 

The one I like most of those at single figures was The Young Master… he is just solid and a few bookies are still doing 4 or 5 places. I don’t think he will be out the places here if he completes, but I thought something may have a bit more toe near the end, and some younger legs may have him. However it’s not impossible that most in here either don’t run their race, either on this ground or because they’re out of form/this is an afterthought, or they don’t get up the hill. He could stroll over the last in splendid isolation. However, as is my want I went for those at big odds, but he’s the one I may have got wrong, and may curse for leaving out. 

I can’t have the two at the top of the market. Yes one of them may bolt up and they are the unexposed ones, whose better days should be ahead of them – that isn’t the case for much else in here. But I don’t like going for horses that short in grade 3s like this, over marathon trips, when they’re not sure to stay. I’m happy to take them on and will live with one of them winning, but for me they’re as likely to be unplaced.

What’s left…well plenty… Beware The Bear has a fond place in the heart after Cheltenham, but i’d like to think he’s now handicapped up to the hilt and 11-12 will be a burden. He’s also not sure to stay this trip either and they’re going to ride him patiently again. I wouldn’t be miffed if he ran into the places but maybe he’ll outclass them. At least he’s in form and plenty may not run up to their marks etc. Give Me A Copper looks short enough also – I don’t like his profile and he can beat me at his price. Just too many questions at single figures for me. I was happy to leave the rest for one reason or another. I don’t like PUs going into these big chases. In fact horses running in C1/2 handicap chases over 3m+, that PU LTO, are just 2/124 since the start of 2018, and in general they are hard to land on. Maybe Joe Farrell and Step Back will return to form, but I wouldn’t bank on it. They’re not machines. Prime Venture is unexposed but is a chase maiden still, and his bets form has been in soft/heavy – however it’s more a case of that’s where he’s done best, rather than stating with confidence that he won’t handle this ground. He is usually held up far back, and I didn’t like his overall profile for a test like this. I fancied him to run an ok race LTO, which he did, but he didn’t stay in that ground. He’s interesting, but not enough even at 33s. Hopefully I haven’t got him wrong, but I thought this may happen too quickly for him. I can leave the two 11 year olds, exposed, and surely not good enough now for a race like this on decent ground- famous last words! 

Bets of luck 

Josh 

 

Stats work…

 

Sandown Bet365 Chase Stats/Trends: READ HERE>>>

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‘Shortlist’

Looking at those that had run at G1/2 level, with 0-2 handicap chase wins, leaves 10/98, 29p in the last decade. It only cuts the field in half, + the two reserves… for a stats long list of… (T denotes trainers who’ve previously won race) 

Talkischeap / Step Back T / Give Me A Copper T / Rock The Kasbah T / Captain Chaos / Adrien Du Pont T/ West Approach / Flying Angel T/ Ballydine / Vyta Du Rock T

There are 4 further 10/10 stats, with various levels of strength I think (the bigger the 0/X figure the better for me, and some of them are small enough)… but, those horse that have 6x 10/10 stats as per the report above…

Talkischeap / Give Me A Copper / Captain Chaos / Adrien Du Pont / West Approach / Flying Angel / Ballydine /

 

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  • S 3.35 – Le Reve @ 20
    L 1.40 – Firmdecisions @ 9
    R 2.55 – Pipers Note @ 13/2
    R 4.00 – Mutamaded @ 9
    D 7.45 – Florenza @ 7
    W 5.30 – Cappananty Con @ 13/2
    Wx 4.50 – Cloudy Morning @ 7/2
    GL

    Titus 27/04/19 10:53 AM Reply


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