Members Daily Post: 27/04/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone,

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Sandown

3.35 –

Rock The Kasbah   (m TJC) 14/1 S2 

Give Me A Copper   (m runs) 10/1 S2 

4.40 –

Larry   (nov HcCh) 15/2 

El Torremoto   (nov HcCh) 25/1 S2A 

5.15 –

River Frost   (m runs) 14 16/1 S2A 

Mr Antolini   (HcH) 16/1 S2A 

Wait For Me   (m TJC) H3 7/2 

Colonial Dream   (HcH) 14/1 S2 

Dan McGRue   (m runs) 14/1 S2

Thats A Given   (m’s class and dist) I3 G3 9/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP )

 

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FLAT

Haydock

4.20 – This Girl (all hncps, m dist)  7/2 

 

Ripon

2.20 –

Markazi   (m dist) 11/1 

Fayez   (m dist)  w2 H3 25/1 

2.55 –

Sandras Secret   (all Hc’s) H3 I1  12/1 S6 

Pipers Note   (4yo+,m dist) 13/2 

Reputation   (4yo+,m dist and age) G1 22/1 S6 

3.30 – My Reward   (m age) 12/1 

4.00 – Mutamaded   (4yo+,m age) G3 10/1 

 

Doncaster

5.10 –

Baydar   (m dist) 8/1 

Swordbill   (m dist) G3 16/1 

6.45 – Nayel   (all Hc’s) 40/1 

 

Leicester

None

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/53, 15p +2.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

 

NO Daily Tips today, the big race below, in the free post, is my only focus. 

 

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from the free post…

Free Tips 

3.35 Sandown 

Rolling Dylan – 1 point win – 20/1 (gen) 23.00 Betfexch

Vyta Du Roc – 1 point win – 25/1 (gen) 30.00 Betfexch

West Approach – 1 point win – 18/1 (gen) 20.00 Betfexch

that’s all for this race, 10.05, write ups to follow 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

1.50 S – Bennys Bridge 

3.00 S – Gods Own 

4.10 S – Jarveys Plate 

4.40 S – Zalvados 

Sat TJC (14/1< guide) 

3.35 S – Rock The Kasbah / Rolling Dylan 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

5.15 S – Irish Prophecy (14/1<) 

Jockeys/chasers

5.20 Wex – Daisy Chicks

3.35 S – Just A Sting 

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Losing Festival Tips 2019 

3.35 S – The Young Master 

4.40 S – Huntsman’s Son 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

The SCOOP6, for those of you who may wish to play for a bit of fun and have never seen my emails about David Leslie’s Syndicates, you can read one of them HERE>>> 

 

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Sandown Bet365 Chase Stats/Trends: READ HERE>>>

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‘Shortlist’

Looking at those that had run at G1/2 level, with 0-2 handicap chase wins, leaves 10/98, 29p in the last decade. It only cuts the field in half, + the two reserves… for a stats long list of… (T denotes trainers who’ve previously won race) 

Talkischeap / Step Back T / Give Me A Copper T / Rock The Kasbah T / Captain Chaos / Adrien Du Pont T/ West Approach / Flying Angel T/ Ballydine / Vyta Du Rock T …. Doing Fine T / Get On The Yeager 

There are 4 further 10/10 stats, with various levels of strength I think (the bigger the 0/X figure the better for me, and some of them are small enough)… but, those horse that have 6x 10/10 stats as per the report above…

Talkischeap / Give Me A Copper / Captain Chaos / Adrien Du Pont / West Approach / Flying Angel / Ballydine / Get On The Yeager 

Do with that as you please 🙂 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

48 Responses

  1. Evening,

    Selections for 15:35, more to follow, but, off to book my weekend in Skeggy…not really, off out with family, so, write ups in morning!
    BALLYDINE 20/1 gen 1pt win
    JOE FARRELL 16/1 gen 1pt win
    GIVE ME A COPPER 10/1 gen 1pt win

    1. BALLYDINE
      I think Charlie has been waiting for this, he did see the Midlands National as a target, but, the ground was his undoing, some say he`s a bit one paced, but, i beg to differ. I believe he is one of the pace horses I keep banging on about, if you look at his Sandown success last year, he never really got out of second gear, which going up this hill at Sandown is what you need, yes, there maybe something that has the speed over the last fence to take him, but, if he`s coming past tired horses, his second gear will see him win! Value at 20`s.
      JOE FARRELL
      Complete opposite of Ballydine, this one switches off and then comes with a surging run normally 3 out to take the race by the scruff of the neck, which as i said may be BD`s undoing, he posts very good speed figures, which for a stayer is unusual, (he beat the course record in the Scottish National last year), but, they were last year and maybe he has gone off the boil, we shall see and it seems funny Miss Curtis has sent him here instead of putting him out for the summer?
      GIVE ME A COPPER
      I love the expression Mr Nicholls always gives of “He`s unexposed and capable of going well!”. He used that with Cyrname when we all had the big win over the winter and now that horse is being talked about as an Altior beater…can`t see it myself atm, but, who knows. Messers Cobden and Nicholls team up for one last hurrah and whilst I`d love to see Bryony win, believe that this is the best of the Nicholls 3.

      As usual hope all jockeys and horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.
      I may do a couple more in some of the other races and will post,but, they will be shrapnel only bets.

    2. Nothing more from me, was going to have a couple more, but , my heart isn`t in it after spending nearly 4 hours studying the race only to find out there is 5 non runners at the moment, the Irish have it right by having reserves, meanwhile our antiquated BHA don`t have a clue……

      1. Sorry Stewart hope you don’t mind me saying so but the way the Irish do it is far far worse. One reason I very rarely venture there is how can you look at a race correctly when you suddenly get an extra horse who is well treated get in because connections pull out another of theirs. In fairness there is an argument they should have been pulled last night since it was very unlikely we were going to get any rain. Three of the five non-runners you could have expected just by going on non-runners.

      2. Don`t mind at all Nick, the Irish system is a bit odd, but, at least there are no rule 4`s! I always get annoyed over here because we have no protection for punters, if a horse is pulled you either ride out the rule 4, cash out, (if you can, that is the bit that frustrates me), or, back again at the new price and adjust your stake accordingly. If i believe a horse is going to win in Ireland, i also account for the fact that so and so, may sneak in at the bottom and will have included that within price / calculations. Like I have said time and again I can account for not eating up / knocked in box etc, but, when we have accurate 24hr weather forecasts these days, then there is no need to travel with the horses, pull them out at the 24 hour stage and job is a good un!! No harm done to horse/jockey/stable staff and most importantly of all the punters pocket…

      3. I think it was at Haydock around this time last year, or, the year before, there were a total of 18 non runners at one meeting, the weather forecast 24 hrs earlier said that there would be a deluge of rain and that it would carry on raining throughout the following day…The card was decimated as some of the races had 3 or 4 runners in them, if you were going to the races for the first time you would have probably thought you would have had a better night at the dog track…at least you could have bet each-way on some of them!? I know it only happens once in a while, but, when it does, it makes me mad!

      4. It’s the toughest part of the game, I must have done 8+ hours but because of the nonsense you get from C of Cs I’ve ended up completely curtailing my bets. How someone can call Good to firm when the radar shows rain the last 2 hours is ridiculous. ( Pissed off smiley)

  2. Well done Colin, your ELITE bets were superb today. 4 winners a 3rd and a PU. I did a very small ew Heinz and for £22.50 collected just over £900. Plus a £5 on the ose each of the six so am quids in tonight. Thanks for your effort very much appreciated. I am well up on your ELITE bets this month. Plus did the other 2 winners in the NEW METHOD and the one winner in COLIN’s bets. Brilliant.

    1. Yes Colin, you hit it out the park on Friday. They must have given you something spot on at the hospital. I did back the Elite picks and so a fair few quid up.

      Onto Saturday – 3.35 Sandown, Adrien Du Pont, 1 point each way at 20/1. This is a tricky race as always. I think that this can stay the extended distance and it may be that he needs it now? Also 1 point each way, The Young Master at 10/1. He was staying on at Cheltenham and Sam Waley Cohen rides this course well. He should get him jumping and may be able to run the legs off them?
      4.10 Sandown, Mia’s Storm, 1.5 points each way at 8/1. She did not go well at Cheltenham but we can forgive her that one. She had previously won twice after giving up chasing after falling twice. She may be value here?

      Good luck.

      1. I will substitute Give Me A Copper for Adrien Du Pont, for 1 point each way at 9/1. The ground and the non runners have messed things up a bit.

  3. 2.55 Ripon – Gin in the Inn 15/2 E/W
    Cl2 6f – Last years winner comes back again only 1lb higher in the handicap but this time crucially gets a 5lb claimer onboard which in effect makes it 4lb lower than last year.
    That’s not the only plus point.
    Drawn 2 it should get a good tow from stall 1 (sandras Secret) which is the race pacesetter.
    I can’t envisage they’ll go anywhere than up the far side and at the last meeting the low numbers dominated.

    1. Another one from this evening.
      7.45 Donc – Florenza 7/1
      Loves Doncaster.
      Run in 3 hcps last 2 years at Donc
      2/8 cl4 OR80
      1/4 cl3 OR81
      1/5 cl3 OR85
      Runs in a cl4 off 82.
      Blew the cobwebs off at Thirsk two weeks ago.
      Interestingly this horse has a pattern of runs that the trainer likes to follow;
      After having pipeopeners the last 3 years the horse has had its second run after a lengthy break at Doncaster.
      4 of 17 – May 16
      2nd of 8 – April 17
      1st of 5 – July 18
      It’s won on gf, gd & soft so it rains plenty i’d still be confident 🙂

      1. Nice one again Andy, you’re bailing me out of my own poor selection s at the moment, many thanks 🙂

      2. Stick that in yer pipe and smoke it!.
        Time for a celebratory shandy before Dad’s Taxi is open for business later.

        1. Well done Andy. Superb logic, spotting those behaviour patterns a gold mine esp when patient as you are. Much deserved and when you add such reasoning and bother to post does make it more likely that others may have a go 🙂

  4. Over the moon for you Gordon and i shall enjoy a few pints tonight after Elites performance today.
    From 1st Jan it is now + 81.483 points in profit.
    You will not have any multiples tomorrow for only found one but will check again in the morning.

    Do not go mad for there will be lengthy losing runs and times of joy when a 20/1 and 40/1 come in.
    Colin.

    1. Colin – congratulations on the results today. Needless to say I was out golfing & missed them all, but that’s my problem (!) I’m glad things worked out well for you.

  5. Any1 else having a look at this Oaksey Chase 2moz guys 2.25 Sandown?? Looking through the race I think a lot aren’t’t at this level. Defo down to the top 3 in the market but I’m fairly confident Definatly Red can push on and take this, negs tho are trainer saying he’d like it to rain a bit. Also it’s not been RH chasing wondering how big of a deal that is

  6. Also think Martin spot on with Adrien Du Pont in Gold Cup. Think could have bit in hand and go very close if not kept at the back of field. Saver on Ballydine to stay on well

  7. Brief write ups:

    Masham Star Haydock 14:05 1pt e/w-20/1-First of all given the going stick has changed from 8.4 to 6.6 I don’t believe there is any good to firm at Haydock although both my picks will be fine on whatever the ground is. Looks to be the only front runner at a track where it pays to be up there. Gets a lovely draw and PJ is one of the best from the front (as an added bonus Kingscote is on a hold up horse so he shouldn’t be in the way). Down to a competitive mark and is race fit where as 9 of these are returning from a break. PJ back on for the first time in 12 runs is a plus as he is 3/14, 7p in handicaps on him. He has never done well in big field straight handicaps but ran well enough 3 starts back. Looked overpriced.

    Ice Age Ripon 14:55 1pt e/w-10/1-Would have needed it last time out but has won his last 3 races worth less than 20k before that and this is much easier than his recent races. Was 4th in the Great St Wilfred off 4lb higher (only beaten less than a length on his side). Bishop would have had the choice between him and Dougal. Obvious small concern on the draw but most of the pace is drawn low.

    The Young Master Sandown 15:35 1pt e/w-9/1-Model of consistency who is back to his best this season. Last time out the ground would have been a shade too soft but today it looks ideal. We know he will handle everything and he was 6lbs higher when he won this 3 years ago. Something may beat him but does look like a solid e/w bet.

    Gabrial Haydock 16:50 1pt e/w-11/1-I think by 5pm ground is likely to be soft which is going in inconvenience a lot of this field unlike the pick. Obviously normally races at a higher level but ran OK LTO and the winner franked the form just getting beat in a Group 2. Won’t mind the ground and usually runs a decent race at this level and I thought given some of the choices it was interesting Hanagan sticks around at Haydock instead of going anywhere else.

    Azor Ahai Leicester 17:35 1pt e/w-10/1-Tipped up LTO when just getting done but whilst he is up 3lbs he gets another good draw at another track which favours front runners and will probably get an easy lead. He actually drops down in class here as well and another solid run is expected.

  8. Today would normally be the the start of Dastardly Dascombe’s bookie bashers season but it looks like the market has got this angle nailed down again this year with little value to be had,unless you go with patents or lucky 15’s.2018 wasn’t a vintage season unless you were also on his 2yo runners and he was never in great form last season,its early yet so not one to be filed in the vault of past glories,still we have Karl can get them winning fto Burke to go hunting with.

  9. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    S 3.35 – Le Reve on 1st run @ 20
    Li 3.20 – Secret Wizaard on 5th run @ 5
    Festival/BRT
    S 3.35 – The Young Master on 1st run @ 9
    ………..Prime Venture on 1st run @ 33
    S 4.40 – Huntsman Son on 1st run @ 6
    S 5.15 – Push The Tempo on 1st run @ 40 the odd 50
    H 2.05 – Growl on 6th run @ 11
    H 4.50 – Escobar on 7th run @ 9
    R 3.30 – Making Miracles on 4th run @ 13/8
    ………..Northwest Frontier on 2nd run @ 25
    3m+
    S 3.35 – Rock The Kasbah on 2nd run @ 14
    GL

  10. COLINS BETS
    1.50 Sandown Cause Toujours BOG 16/1
    5.30 Wolverhampton Dotted Swiss BOG 7/2
    ELITE BETS
    3.35 Sandown Talkischeap BOG 5/1
    NEW METHOD
    2.25 Sandown Black Corton BOG 3/1
    4.40 Sandown Bandsman BOG 8/1
    5.05 Ripon Wedding Date BOG 4/1
    5.35 Leicester Azor Ahai BOG 10/1
    6.45 Doncaster Weld Al Emarat BOG 11/1
    7.00 Wolverhampton Image Of The Moon BOG 10/3
    7.15 Doncaster Sapa Inca BOG 4/1
    Colin

  11. First off…congrats to Cleafe and Andy G and tough luck Josh yesterday really learned so much on the NH scene from your detailed analysis as NH not my forte as prefer flat racing but learning is what the site is excellent for and thanks for the valuable insights and all the hard work you do..quite astonishing and wish I had your energy levels…..anyway that’s enough brown nosing LOL on to the 2.45 at Leicester…Chose this race as it is the best quality of the non hcps…also chose non hdcps as no added layer of a handicap rating to complicate analysis….so what of this lot in the 2.45. Speed gun at the ready!! Eqtidaar is a bit up and down speed wise having run in higher grades than todays race…clocked 37.88 mph in a G1 over 6f at Nmkt in July 2018 and the racing post comment was that the horse did not quicken which is a concern…before that in June 2018 ran G1 Ascot over 6f at 39.00 mph…now that is fast…The only two horses today which can get near that are Cardsharp and Larchmont Lad and have the benefit of good 7f form..Taking Cardsharp first…by comparison over 6f in June 2018 at Salisbury the horse ran 37.58 mph which is slow in comparison to Eqtidaar but ha run at Lingfield on the awin a C2 over 7f at 39.13 mph which is a fantastic time…having to sustain the run over that distance is impressive despite the lower grade contested. I asked myself if this was a fluke so looked at the horses run at Wolv 9th March in a listed race and over 7.16 f distance ran 37.91 mph and with course and distance adjustments to get a truer comparison with the horses own efforts over the 7f at Lingfield the speed comes out at 38.80 mph so the Lingfield run was no fluke. Larchmont Lad ran at the Curragh ( slower running track than either Ascot or Lingfield) in a G2 in July 2018 over 7f on good going clocking a speed of 38.30 mph…with course and distance adjustments the figure was 38.92 mph. So what will win? Favs 43% 2nd favs 27%…Johnston 4-16…25% …Varian 2-5 25% jocks SDS 10-32 31% Buick 2-7 29% Pedigrees are good in all those mentioned and my view is that Cardsharp has the better bloodline especially in relation to the large hearted pedigree connection and at the prices is worth a bet for me …the horse has won at Salisbury on gf over 6f so I know acts on the turf and going in speed of 37.58 mph and though it cannot match Eqtidaat clocking 39.30 over the same distance I think at 7f the horse has the advantage…I would not discount Larchmont Lad coming late and fast on the hold up jockey Spencer..ideal jock for the ideal horse as clocked the slightly better speed in a non adjusted time of 38.30 over Cardsharp so will dutch the two..if Eqtidaar does beat the two horses and something I have not mentioned pops up to beat them,then so be it. Enjoy and gd lck.

    1. ha, cheers, you have to graft for every race I think, annoying when it goes as it did, esp the first two who were never in it really, and there wasnt a point at any stage where I thought I may be getting a run for my money – that’s always more annoying. Still can’t believe the final one didn’t win, but i’ll just credit Paddy, as the ride won it I think. I was happy with the picks, the Sherwood winner at morning odds of 8s or so, one of those where given write up in hindsight you’d like to be nearer but don’t think i’d have had more than 1 onside in that, and was happy with the pick, but not sure i’ll ever be backing him again!

      1. Like you, thought the final selection would win…just very annoying when that happens as you can feel your heart sink!!! but the analysis you do is very educational for me in NH… so onwards and upwards!

  12. 2.15 Leicester – looks a good race of its type.
    4.25 Bravo Faisal, Gobi Desert
    3.75 Chatanooga Boy, Mr Kodi
    3.25 Sir Gordon, Grace Plunkett
    I saw Chattanooga Boy at Newbury
    Chattanooga Boy – Sprint type, a bit downhill, powerful mid section. 77
    As the market reflects this performance should be good enough to win it, unless one of his to rated debutant rivals is bordering on listed class at least. Chattanooga was held up on debut and that might not help his cause here and with Tony Hamilton and Sylvestre De Sousa on the two unraced top rated and both liable to go from the front Harry Bentley will not want to get far out of his ground.
    Has to be filed, yet again, in the too difficult.
    Hugh

    1. yep me too .. as soon as i crash n burn on the grass .. will start to test the sand with me toes later for this evening 😉 … hope we can find some nuggets together again 🙂 it looks tricky for me after a quick peak 🙁 .. i will definitely bet dutching .. can’t see a stand only napof the evening yet ? ? 🙁
      But I know you will put me straight – laterz maestro mc
      gb 🙂

      1. SBC WOLVERHAMPTON UPDATE

        Hi to VP G and any other sandboys. A quick run through the card for tonight without the benefit of G’s systems as yet.

        5.30 – a tough opener which I hope G your systems might help with. I like Mansfield, Lucky Lodge, Cappanaty Con and Poeta Brasiliera. If pushed, the first and last mentioned.

        6.00 – a strong odds on fav, maybe Gifted Zebedee for fun forecast? Trainer/Jockey are 44% win/55% place over the last 12 months.

        6.30 – I like Arlecchinos Leap here, trainer quite positive as to it’s chance and International Law, who AL had to reverse form with, is a NR.

        7.00 – leaning towards Colony Queen as bet of the evening, recommend saver on Hermocrates.

        7.30 – I think the front end of the market look strong here but fit from hurdling like Dr Richard Kimble EW, think it’s MJ’s only runner tonight?

        8.00 – Jazzy J for me with Apex Predator EW.

        8.30 – very tough finale. Burrows and Varian have the top two in the market but at the prices, and if you are still standing, One Cool Daddy and Mutadaawel appeal a little. Mr Ivory and Franny are 42% win/57% place here last five years while McCann/Kelly are 40%/50%.

        G. Let me know what the computer says and it better not be “no” 🙂 🙂

        1. mc … i am out n about … looking grim .. but see if i can see asap if any of yours are on my system ?? soz 🙁

        2. mc .. soz all i can do on my phone at the mo 🙁
          all initial system qualifiers but just too many and not enough time to analyse them now 🙁 … will see where we match and go from there at ver very samll stakes for me ….. too hectic a day for mr gb’s liking 🙁
          5.30 Wolverhampton 10 Alfies Angel
          5.30 Wolverhampton 5 Boundsy (IRE)
          5.30 Wolverhampton 3 Lucky Lodge
          5.30 Wolverhampton 11 Mansfield
          5.30 Wolverhampton 7 Red Cymbal
          5.30 Wolverhampton 2 The Establishment
          5.30 Wolverhampton 12 Everkyllachy (IRE)
          5.30 Wolverhampton 6 Secret Potion
          6.00 Wolverhampton 1 Gifted Zebedee
          6.00 Wolverhampton 6 Ingenium (IRE)
          6.00 Wolverhampton 5 Fairy Fast (IRE)
          6.00 Wolverhampton 6 Ingenium (IRE)
          6.30 Wolverhampton 6 Casina di Notte (IRE)
          6.30 Wolverhampton 9 Whatwouldyouknow (IRE)
          6.30 Wolverhampton 7 Bleu Et Noir
          6.30 Wolverhampton 1 Global Art
          6.30 Wolverhampton 5 Pacos Prince
          7.00 Wolverhampton 2 Canford Dancer
          7.00 Wolverhampton 10 Champagne Marengo (IRE)
          7.00 Wolverhampton 1 Dancing Jo
          7.00 Wolverhampton 5 Hermocrates
          7.00 Wolverhampton 11 Lady Reset
          7.30 Wolverhampton 5 Crystal King
          7.30 Wolverhampton 7 Inn The Bull
          7.30 Wolverhampton 3 Lexington Law
          7.30 Wolverhampton 2 Sleeping Lion

          gb 🙂

          1. Thanks G, don’t stress it 🙂 well done, have a good night. Bad betting decisions when you rush I think? Not you, all of us 🙂

  13. Phew. A Biggie for Flat S6. They had been on a losing run since back end last season. 22/1, bigger later morning, was 40s for time on machine , 19.82 bfsp. They needed that.

      1. Good stuff. So did I! Well I had half on at that and rest BFSP, which in hindsight clearly an error but I shouldn’t grumble! Winners like that help greatly towards the jumps S1 S3A# Flat S6 100+ point min strategy portfolio. Fingers crossed a few more to come in weeks ahead. We shall see.

    1. been out all day from early morning so just got in to find my BF balance nicely increased ,S6 and G1 so a 2 pointer for me 🙂

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