1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)
3.Micro System Test Zone
4.Any general messages/updates etc
1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs
4.40 – Thyne For Gold (micro +dist) I3 13/2
Danceintothelight (HcH) H3 I3 8/1
Armattiekhan (HcH,m runs) 20/1 S2A
Whiteoak Stroller (HcH,m runs) 25/1 S2A
Capmanfor (HcH) 40/1
6.15 – Cockadoodledo (nov HcCh) 14,30 H3 7/1
4.50 – Timcoda (m age) 6/1
Air De Rock (HcCh,m dist) w2 H3 I1 3/1
Keep Moving (m +class) G3 6/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP)
Dalaman (all Hc’s,HcH) 22/1 S2A
Cold As Ice (m dist) 14/1 S2
Imperial Elysian (all Hc’s) ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A
Dan Gun (all Hc’s) ES+ 16/1 S2A S3A
2.15 – Rebel State (all Hc’s) 14 14/1
Manshood (m age) I3 11/1
Nibras Again (m age) H3 I1 G3 5/1 S4
4.25 – Groveman (all Hc’s) 14 H1 I1 5/1 S1
Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles, tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>
2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)
Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/53, 15p +2.6) Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)
#1 4.15 Perth – Calivigny – 1 point win – 12/1 (all) PU 9/1, never really in touch/very odd, over after around 1 mile to my eyes. Didn’t expect her to hold him right up out the back. Disappointing. Can’t think they went too quickly for him, never really in it, beaten long before stamina was an issue. Got the main danger/likely winner right of the ‘shorter’ priced ones, but of little consolation to that sorry effort. The winner handled the better ground fine, and clearly over that last run, which were the concerns around 7s, but got that wrong.
#2 3.15 Perth – Lucca Lady – 1 point win – 9/1 (gen) UP, rubbish run, another never really in it at all. No way to polish that run.
#3 7.20 Bangor – Chase The Wind – 1 point win – 7/2 (gen) 2nd Hmmm, well on jockey language I can’t believe he hasn’t won there/didn’t just cruise past! He is a paceless horse, why the jockey hasn’t sent him on way out and ridden him as if he stays, i don’t know. Paddy has out-ridden him there, good ride, albeit maybe if they went another 4f the gap would be maintained. Poor day.
that’s it for today, as of 09.00…
Some general points first… I did have a look at some stats/trends for this, specifically weight… those carrying 11-7 or more (after claims) are 0/51,9p in this, 11-12 are 0/23, 3p. On that basis Gold Opera and Teddy Tea have it to do. Lucinda Russell is 0/11, 0p in this also, for those interested.
To this horse first… I tipped him LTO which in hindsight was an error, up against 124+ horses, in too competitive a race over a trip too short – even more so up against C3 animals/on that ground. However he wasn’t going backwards after the last and kept plugging on. He also jumped the last two as if he still had energy left, his legs just couldn’t keep up. That was also the case on the run before- ANY horse that is ‘running on’ at Carlisle over 26f, carrying 11-12, having been held up last in a dawdle of a race – well, they are worth a crack over a marathon trip. It awaits to be seen if he will stay, but that’s the case for most in here. He may not, but he’s 12/1 and shapes as if he’s well worth a go at this, for a yard which knows what’s needed to win this race. In reality then I think he’s been in form for most of the season. He won back to back races in December, which beating the right horses and with subsequent winners coming out. The Kelso run was a gritty victory, in a scrap after the last , head down, trying to the line. The run at Ayr was ok also, staying on again over a trip which does look too short. He then ran at Carlisle and Newbury as discussed above. They also swop the headgear here, putting the CP on, which he’s worn before. However the visor has been on for 9 runs or so, and each time his headgear has switched he’s run very good races – well he’s come 2nd every time, running on to the line. If he’s ‘running on’ in this race, he’s winning it. He won’t mind some ‘good’ in the going and while there is rain forecast, i’m not sure there will be enough for a few in here. Anyway, I think he’s the overpriced one and with any luck he’s bang there as they turn for home. We shall see what he does from there on in.
I think weight could be important to him, as i’m not sure he’s the biggest – certainly for a staying chaser. In handicaps he’s 0/9,2p carrying 11-8 or more. He’s 2/4,2p with 10-9 or less on his back. His trainer thinks he’s got a decent chance, IF he stays.
I’m happy to take on the rest and won’t be annoyed if something else wins. The rest look about the right price to me.
While the old guard have a decent record in this, I’m just never tipping a 11/12/13/14+ year old in a handicap chase again, bar the Vets finale at Sandown. I’ve concluded it’s a rubbish long term strategy in these races and as well as that age group having ageing/slowing legs, it actually detracts me from focussing on those that I should be. So, we shall see how that goes.
No doubt Blue Kascade (I don’t think he’ll stay, not the strongest of stayers over 3m imo) Harry The Viking or Carrigdhoun will now bolt up! I will cheer if either of the last two win, old favourites of RTP towers, and any staying chase fan. But I can’t have them at 14.
Who does that leave… well Gold Opera has that Top Weight stat to overcome and at 5/1, I can leave him. Better horses than he have carried that weight in this i’m sure. Anyway, he isn’t overpriced, if he wins this, so be it. I didn’t think Achill Road Boy was too big either at 5s. I think that’s generally short enough when a horse isn’t proven over the trip, esp in a marathon chase like this. He stays on over 26f if he may see it out but his price isn’t big enough to tempt me in.
Capard King – well he’s inconsistent, he can be a weak finisher, he can fail to pick up his legs and i’ve long been battered and bruised having thrown myself off the Capard King cliff edge. Sandy Thompson may work the oracle albeit i’m sure Rachel M would have had the choice of the three. I could be wrong and Henry B is a fine rider. But 13/2 really doesn’t look overpriced to me. He may have wanted this trip all his life but he’s often just got caught over 3m, as well as winning a few. I think he’s a few issues when hitting the front etc. Anyway, i’ll sleep just fine if he bolts up at this price.
Misfits and Weststreet… well it’s hard to split either on that last run and maybe a repeat will be enough to take this. That was slow motion stuff at Hexham, in heavy/holding ground, going up and down on the spot. I do wonder if this track/trip may be too sharp for them! That’s not impossible. And even though they’ve had 43 days off it’s not impossible those efforts have bottomed them out for the season. Anyway, at 6s and 7s I can leave given my concerns. Misfits is 0/15 with any ‘good’ in the going, 0/19 when rated 101+ . I suppose of the ‘shorter priced’ ones the Sherwood horse would interest me most. However he is up in the weights and doesn’t have the 7lb claim this time either. But he did travel well LTO and if Leighton kicks early he should just keep going.
Late Date… well I don’t know the strength of his win LTO in a 3 runner race and he’s 0/5,0p 101+ in handicaps. I’m not sure he’ll be good enough but he could be the only one with younger legs to stay. I’m always a bit anti Sedgefield form (both his chase wins) and Hexham in truth (unless horses are running back at said tracks) as the quality of racing is questionable. In any case I’m not looking at him at 8/1 and wanting to lump on. He’s young/lightly raced and he may take this, but not for me.
Teddy Tea has a few questions as well as the weight trend. In general I don’t like lightly raced horses his age as it suggests he’s had plenty of problems, some of them in his legs /tendons I suspect. A 3m6f chase will find out any flaws and he UR LTO. The selection also finished just behind him in a 3m chase at Perth in the past, staying on!
That leaves Nakadam who’s a bit of a character and can be hard to win with. He’s another who I’m not sure shapes as if wanting further than 26f, and I can’t really explain his last two runs – i’m trying to find excuses , but am struggling. It looks like he’s gone out of form as quickly as he bounced into it. He is now 0/5,1p 3m3f+ . I do think 16s may be a tad insulting, not enough for me to have my tipping stake on, but maybe some very small change on the machine, just in case. But he does just look out of form and the trainer’s 1/86 stats at the track in 5 years don’t inspire much confidence either.
So, fingers crossed I get some sort of run for my money. Pace in these races is tricky to work out. He can be ridden more prominently but I think Lucy just tries to see what position he adopts at his cruising speed. If he’s holding a position behind the pace, lobbing along, i’ll get excited at some point. There’s no horse in this that would have me falling off my seat if they won, and judgement of value on a horse by horse basis in any race is subjective, but i’m happy leaving the rest of them.
Lucca Lady –
I had a brief look at this race yesterday and this mare is the one that jumped out at the prices, and thankfully it’s held well enough. She was 10s, 11s in places last night, but 9s still looks about twice the price she should be to my eyes. For me she’s the most interesting mare in this listed chase and certainly the one that’s overpriced. The Katy Price yard is all about the chasing game really – they buy horses to go chasing I think and whatever they may do over hurdles is a bonus (she’s 7/168, 38p all hurdlers, vs 16/84,31p, +52 all chasers) This one made chase debut LTO, after 14o+ days off, first start after a wind op. She was sent off at 33/1, in part because the trainer thought she needed the run…well, if that’s the case, then anything could happen here today. She bolted up there, breezed into the race and won hard held/eased down. She wasn’t beating trees. The Dan Skelton mare in second was rated 135, sent off 9/4, and was made to look like a selling plater. She’s run up to her mark at Cheltenham I think, beaten 1 1/4 lengths in a class 2 handicap there. Connections had intended to run this one at Cheltenham also, but i’m not sure why she didn’t turn up or whether she was declared. It could be they decided to aim for this race and give her more time. The yard are in form – 2/9,5p the last 14 days, and she’s 4/14,8p with LTO winners. I do like Ben Poste on a chaser, and when riding for this trainer also… they’re 15/69,25p, +64 with all chasers, 8/30, 13p, +36 with chasers over 23/24f. This horse does have to prove she stays, which she may not, but I get a price to find out and she’s got so much untapped potential and this is one of the easiest 3 miles around – so if she doesn’t see this out, she won’t be seeing it out elsewhere. She finished 2nd in a 3m point.
In any case, she’s overpriced. She looks tactically versatile also and there’s a fair bit of pace on paper here. She was held up LTO but showed a deadly turn of foot and jumped well. It is also her first time going RH, there’s a chance she’s a left handed horse but at the moment that’s an unknown, built into the price for me. She’s the one I wanted to be with as she could be a 140s horse. She’s classy I think.
Atalanta Blaze has had a hard season, and a hard race LTO, eventually falling. The yard are not firing on all cylinders and this ‘could’ be going to the well one too many times. In any case 5/2 wasn’t overpriced. Neither was Got Away who stayed on from the clouds LTO, possibly benefitting from a fast run race/collapse, but i’m not sure. She may find this tight enough around here, and given her HU style/stamina to prove 11/4 seemed tight. But she’s in form, running well, the yard are going well, so I wouldn’t be shocked were she to win. Drinks Interval arrives on the back of a PU and a Fall, only 13 days ago. For me that makes 9/2, 5/1 skinny enough. Even if you thought excuses, or were happy to ignore, I don’t like doing so. Horses are not machines and they do remember bad experiences. I’d want a bigger price on her and in any case she does need to step up as her form in the 3 runs before that wasn’t great either. An odd jockey booking for the yard, given it’s a nice pot, but junior is clearly capable – albeit still has work to do over fences imo, as you’d expect given his relative inexperience.
Treackle Tart is interesting, but does need to step up on recent efforts but a repeat of that Donny win could be enough here, esp if mine doesn’t step forward/stay/jump as I expect. The run at Cheltenham was a bit underwhelming though and she could have had enough for the season. She did lose her place at Donny before rallying, and i’d worry about doing the same around here against this class of oppo, having to then stay on and jump under pressure up the straight. 6s was ok, but not overly generous I didn’t think, but probably the most interesting of those shorter than the selection maybe. I could leave the other three – I think they need to step up on what all of the others have done/the potential they still have – I could be wrong on that front but I don’t think all 5 will fail to run their race…
7.20 Bangor – Chase The Wind
Any sticklers for detail will have read the Highland National write up and possibly noted how I thought 5/1 was short enough for horses unproven over a trip… ahem… well price is about the context of the oppo and the race obviously, and my instinct was that 7/2 could still be 1 point too big here, and my assessment of the oppo led me to have a go as much as anything else. This is a much less competitive staying chase than the one at Perth.
Having watched his last 3 runs back, i’m convinced he’s going to relish this trip – and that he needs it. He does look a bit paceless, but will just keep galloping. I concluded most of these won’t be doing that, and he’ll just win 🙂 He’s a very good jumper, I think he has to go Left Handed, and I think he’s best on proper good ground. Those Sedgefield and Newcastle runs are very good on the ‘figures’, RPRs of 116, and TS of 94/99. If he runs up to those against these, the race is his. At Sedgefield he bumped into a more progressive/well handicapped one, who has since gone in again. The front two were miles clear and he stayed on again at the end, over 26f. At Newcastle, he ran well again to a point but was outpaced near the end, over 23f. He split two NTO winners in that race, the 2nd and 4th, who somewhat bolted up off 108 on his next start. I do have to forgive that Carlisle run but it was an odd run.. it was only 19 days after the Newcastle race and maybe it came too soon. It could be the ground wasn’t to his liking but the jockey hadn’t moved to 4 out. Sadly for him those in front didn’t stop and his lack of gears caught him out again, plodding on. He has clearly had problems, given his time off before this season, and maybe he prefers flatter tracks, which isn’t impossible. He’s dropped another two pounds and gets a 3lb claim. I thought there’s every chance he bolts up here and wins by a wide margin. I can dream…
I don’t like the rest at all, at the prices. Twister is doing a poor man’s Gordon Elliot in the Irish National! If one of his wins then so be it but Angels Antics is a chase maiden, wears headgear for a reason and has looked like a non stayer over 3m. It could be that 3m pace in C3s has been too strong for her, and this more serene gallop over this trip is what she wants. But I can’t play at 4/1, the selections looks like he’ll relish this, this one i’m not convinced. Another Frontier just looks out of form, i’ve no idea why he would bounce back here and if he does so, it will just be one of those. Not for me. Mahler Lad has never won after a break before, and while he’s run ok, over this trip, with the yard looking a bit cold and a 7lb claimer on, i’ll happily leave at 9s. I can’t have Bob Ford, he’s 12! And in any case he’s a moody/inconsistent sod now who i thought wants it softer for his ageing legs. Maybe he’ll bounce back, simply guessing as to what mood he’s in and he’s always needed some rousting along.
IF mine runs his race, and stays as hoped, then he will beat the remaining two. But if he doesn’t, they may fight it out. Lowanbehold is 12, so happy to take on, esp at his price, but he does stay well I think however mine has shown plenty more on recent starts imo. Also, his two most recent wins have been in heavy, and I do wonder if he’ll put down on this lively ground at the business end, or even have the pace to keep up in the final mile. I can leave him. As I can Packettotherafters who’s rated 86 and needs everything else to fall in a hole- it’s not impossible that everything does fall in a hole and he’ll win simply by being last horse standing. He could also ‘bounce’. The booking of Paddy may be significant, and I won’t be shocked if he took this, but i’d rather be on mine at 7/2 than him at 11/2. Time will tell whether I regret going with a ‘shorty’ but he does still look value to me and is the one to beat.
3.Micro System Test Zone
D McCain (14/1< guide)
5.40 B – Armattiekan / Danceintothelight
7.20 B – Mahler Lad
Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)
7.20 B – Packettotherafters
6.15 B – Troubled Soul
Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19
LTO winning hurdlers
5.40 B – Kereman
Henry Brooke (25/1< guide)
5.15 P – Kilfinian Bay
Trainers to follow
4.15 P – Gold Opera (11/1< guide)
6.25 C – Barton Knoll (9/1< best)
Adam Norman’s Little Back Book
7.00 C – Pleney (long term, guide)
4.Any general messages/updates etc
Sandown Bet365 Chase Stats/Trends: READ HERE>>>
Looking at those that had run at G1/2 level, with 0-2 handicap chase wins, leaves 10/98, 29p in the last decade. It only cuts the field in half, + the two reserves… for a stats long list of… (T denotes trainers who’ve previously won race)
Talkischeap / Step Back T / Give Me A Copper T / Rock The Kasbah T / Captain Chaos / Adrien Du Pont T/ West Approach / Flying Angel T/ Ballydine / Vyta Du Rock T …. Doing Fine T / Get On The Yeager
There are 4 further 10/10 stats, with various levels of strength I think (the bigger the 0/X figure the better for me, and some of them are small enough)… but, those horse that have 6x 10/10 stats as per the report above…
Talkischeap / Give Me A Copper / Captain Chaos / Adrien Du Pont / West Approach / Flying Angel / Ballydine / Get On The Yeager
Do with that as you please 🙂