Members Daily Post: 25/04/19 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Perth

2.25 – Curious Carlo   (all Hc’s) 14 G3 16/1 S1 S2A 

3.30 – Grainey Hill   (HcCh)  w2 8/1  UP

4.05 –

Carrolls Milan   (all Hc’s)  w1  w2  ES+  H3 I3 G3  4/1 S3A# S4 WON 4/1 >3/1 

Sandymount   (micro Class) 16/1 S2A UP

 

Warwick

3.10 –

Wallace Spirit   (all Hc’s)

Nigh Or Never   (m class) G1 7/1 2nd 

3.40 – Ardera Cross   (m dist) H1 I1 G1 7/4 S4  WON 7/4 

5.20 – Unai   (1st NHF) 15/2 

5.55 –

For Luck   (1st NHF) 8/1 

Kembles Cascade   (1st NHF) 6/1 

 

Kempton

4.40 – Jacbequick   (m class) H3 I3 11/2 

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FLAT

Beverley

2.50 –

Musharrif   (m class)  w2 H1 I1 G3 11/2 S1 S4 UP

Van Gerwen   (m’s class and age) 14 I3 G1 8/1 S6 

4.25 –

Zorawar   (all Hc’s,m TJC) H1 I1 G3 4/1 S1 S4

Thorntoun Care   (m class) 20/1 

4.55 –

Autretot   (all Hc’s,m TJC) I3 10/1 

Intense Style   (m class) 14 22/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/50, 14p +5.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

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No Tips today.

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3.Micro System Test Zone

R Hobson (33/1< guide) 

1.50 P – Fanzio

5.10 P – Defi Sacre 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide) 

3.00 P – Captain Courageous / Viscount Wilson 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers

6.50 K – Tommy Silver 

4.45 W – Irish Octave 

LTO winning hurdlers

4.40 K – So Lonley 

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Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<) 

4.05 P – Isaactsown Lad 

5.10 P – Instant Replay 

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

3.30 P – Saint Leo (medium term, guide) 

4.40 K – Ace Ventura (short term, guide) 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

My ‘daily tipping’…

Well at long last – cue losing run – i’ve finally got myself into a better place on this front. Red Giant’s win took the total for ALL my tips (Free/Daily/Feature Big Race) in 3m+ chases since 22nd Feb to 7/58, 13p, +36 points, which profit/ROI wise is a bit more like it.  22nd Feb is when I decided to stop trying to be a ‘jack of all trades and master of none’ with my daily tipping (best of the stats etc) and go back to what I first started blogging about – namely 3m+ chases (mostly handicaps). Those are the races I’ve always enjoyed getting stuck into and it can be best to specialise. Some of that improvement, outside of de-cluttering my mind and not running myself down mentally, has also come from increasing the amount of video study I do, and replays I watch back. It’s amazing what you see when you open your eyes! In this increasing world of data this, information that, etc, part of me thinks the ‘edge’ may be going back to basics, watching more replays, and getting to know a pool of horses inside out. That may be nonsense of course, but by being mentally fresher, i’m enjoying analysing these races again. I suppose finding the odd winner helps and I need to find plenty more. 

I won’t be tipping in a class 5 handicap chase ever again (they are -5 from that pile above) and will try not to ever tip an 11yo+ again, outside of Sandown’s Vets finale. 🙂 

So, in amongst the ‘big race’ tipping mire, there’s some green shoots of recovery. The Free Tips (mainly ‘feature’ marathon handicap chases/Nationals) are on 2/27, 5p, +8 (+21 BFSP) for the year now, which is better than it was. Plenty of work to do, but in this game it’s good to find positives!

The Jumps big race/feature race losses need some attention but that will turn at some point, such is the nature of the beast when playing in 12+ runner C2/G3 handicaps, 10s/12s+. And sadly I think part of it is a natural correction from last year’s heady heights/ silly ROI. Which is no consolation to those of you who didn’t back any of the +185 point pile last year. (inc free post tips) Still, with a bit more luck that 2019 total would be around 0, which while still rubbish, would look better than it does. 

Punchestown is next, where the focus will very much be on ‘people’, rather than big race trends etc. Messrs Mullins, Harrington, Elliot and E Bolger have won 57% of all races at the previous 5 Festivals, and plenty of focus will be on those, as well as the trainer records for all handicaps. That’s the plan. We shall see how that goes. 

Josh 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

157 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Thats what you have to do, get rid of the weed and make a selection on whats left. Sadly 10/1 plus winners are like fishing for Salmon where there’s plenty of perch, so patience is needed. Nothing better than getting the enthusiasm up. Great pick.

    chubnut 11/08/19 2:17 PM Reply


    • cheers, oh yep that’s true. Trying to improve judging when something 7/2-7/1 etc is still value also, but yep in the 8/1, 10/1+ range will always mean some quiet times/long losing runs.

      That point about getting rid of the weed is a good one – clearly you can make a case based on profile of the horse, but that case can greatly be enhanced if you have views about why x, y and z won’t run their race, are the wrong price etc. The video analysis has helped- esp watching how horses ‘stay on’, and jumping which sounds simplistic but you can’t underestimate the importance of fluent jumping in a chase! and that is something you can only take a view on by watching replays, esp when a horse is under pressure. The laser focus on asking whether the horse is actually well-handicapped also helps! Two main ways for that are increasing use of RPR figures, and hot form – esp given that in general I want to be on unexposed horses/those that haven’t as yet hit their ceiling in conditions, rather than an old timer who’s coming back down the ratings. That’s more important in flat handicaps I think, but not so much the chasing game imo. And of course PACE 🙂 Mainly those who I know will be up there- many of my recent chase winners have never been that far off the pace, certainly final circuit, and a few have just made all. Anyway, plenty to work on, but hopefully that 3m+ chase pile can keep climbing as the year goes on.

      Now just to find a few 25/1 handicap winners at Punchy/Galway, and all will be right again!

      Josh 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • It`s worked for me CN, agree with Josh, even though he scratches his head at my write ups, i see things from the RP back catalog, race wise also, as the way forward. I really enjoy trawling through the old form of some horses, classic case of this may be my tip for Ballydine on Saturday, i feel he needs it to be good or better underfoot, it has always seemed to me that he has struggled getting his hooves out of the heavy ground he has encountered this NH season, hopefully there will not be too much rain and the ground will stay firmish for him on Saturday, but, just watch how he struggled at Uttoxeter lto, but, Josh would say he has won on soft, agreed, but, in my opinion i would say his “action” to me says he would appreciate a sounder surface, again, it is a matter of how people read races and watch the replays… Your right about sorting the weeds out though CN, know i keep banong on about it, but, yours and everyone else`s invaluable advice has helped me tenfold since the start of my “experiment ” over the sticks, just one last hurrah and then back on it again come Punchestown..haha

      Stewart 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


      • I don’t scratch my head at ALL your write ups Stewart haha 🙂 Just the occasional horse , which at times is how you explain the odd form comment I think, but yea some of it is how we read things differently! More so chasers for sure. But that’s the game and your record this jumps season is far superior to mine.

        Josh 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • Can I ask a dumb question regarding S#1 Jumps: G1/3 10/1 or more. I’m a lemming. I follow the strategies ‘religiously’ contrary to popular thought and that’s because I don’t know enough to question your wisdom. However. It has occurred to me several times over the winter in small fields say only 4,5,6 runners whether the G3 element stands up to scrutiny? Are any of the statos among you able to shed any light?

    Cheers. Mick.

    fearherbedroc 11/08/19 2:17 PM Reply


    • It’s not a dumb question. I’ll get back to you with some thoughts in the morning!

      Josh 11/08/19 4:04 PM Reply


      • Hi Mick,

        It is a good question, and one i’ve pondered. Sadly I don’t keep stats for field sizes etc and if I had staff, that’s the sort of detail I probably should look at!
        With Jumps S1 – it feels like plenty of smaller fields this year, but i’m not sure if that’s different to 2018 across the board when they worked well in live play, or the year before that- but there could be something to it, and that they’re best in bigger fields. Maybe there have been too many falsely run races which impacts negatively and horses sneeking into a G3 in a small field , albeit Dr Peter May has a very complex approach to speed ratings, and i don’t really know how they’re derived at or whether such things are considered. Or the ground has just buggered everything up, given how dry it has been.
        Jumps S1 does only have a win SR of 8-10%, so lulls are to be expected – and profit with these angles tends to come in spikes. 2018 was very good. It’s had a quiet jumps season this year, since Oct, hovering around 0 / small loss, but we shall see what it does next Autumn, maybe that’s where all winners will be – sadly they take the summer jumps off. It has been poor compared to previous years. You may be right, but i don’t have the info to say either way.

        Josh 11/08/19 4:47 PM Reply


        • Thanks for looking into this josh. Appreciate it. I just feel sometimes when fields are small it’s not that difficult to get into the top 3 and I’ve almost stopped myself from backing a 20/1 outsider of 4. But then stranger things have happened. Just wondered if you had any stats. Thanks anyway. Mick

          fearherbedroc 11/08/19 5:12 PM Reply


  • I honestly tried taking a week off but I struggle to keep away:

    Its All A Joke Beverley 14:50 1pt e/w-12/1-Most of this field look pretty exposed unlike the selection. Has won 3 times for his new trainer on the AW and makes his flat debut for the trainer. Gets a plum draw and should be able to race prominently and get a nice tow into the race. Won a class 4 3 starts ago and is only 1lb higher and the 2nd franked the form placing in a couple of class 3s. Next time out he ran in a very hot race which has produced multiple winners. There are few trainers hotter than Archie Watson at the moment and he is 3/9, 6p at the track so anything he sends up here should be respected. Thought he had an excellent chance.
    Defi Sacre Perth 17:10 1pt e/w-12/1-Ran in a hot race 2 starts ago and stumbled at the start of the last race and never quite got into the race. Hobson targets this meeting and had 3 winners from his previous 5 runners before this year. One of those winners happened to be for the same owner. I liked that he has employed Danny Cook who is 2/4 for the trainer in handicaps and thought in an open looking race he looked overpriced.

    Nick Mazur 11/08/19 2:17 PM Reply


    • Welcome back Nick.

      stanmellor 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • Good to see you back Nick. Ignore Chubnut – he’s no more than a WUM (wind up merchant). The sooner Josh gets rid of him the better in my view.

      Phil Coverdale 12/08/19 12:18 PM Reply


    • Good to have you back and hopefully refreshed, Nick.

      mangomasher 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • HOORAY.

      steveindisguise 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


    • Really good to see you on again Nick

      brisha 11/08/19 4:04 PM Reply


    • Yay! So pleased you’re back.

      Mick

      fearherbedroc 11/08/19 4:04 PM Reply


      • Yes great to see you back Nick, all the best !

        John Unitt 11/08/19 4:47 PM Reply


    • Welcome home Nick hope you enjoyed your break

      aaron l 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


    • Did nobody but me pick up on the name of Nick`s first pick?? It`s all a joke…. 🙂 Really?? hahaha

      Stewart 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


  • Interesting to read the above. One thing I am certain of though is that the study of form is not the be all and end all of tipping horses. Otherwise it would be easy. The only judgement I have of a tipster is long term profit, however they achieve it. That is up to them.
    What you need to understand is that in a way horses are like most humans, generally inconsistent. What you need to do is use analysis to try to find when they are going to run to their better form. Recency bias is in the mind and must be managed. I think that these things were picked up in part in the comments above, reading between the lines.

    Anyway, onto Thursday. And on to Chelmsford.

    6.30, King Robert, a course winner that should be prominent and so get a clear run. So worth 2 points win bet. It is 5/1 as I write.
    7.00, Foxtrot Lady, who’s trainer is in form and is a distance winner. Now has a go on the all weather as his first run of the season. The race looks competitive at the level but this one may be an improver for 2019? So 2 points win. 11/2 at present but may be drifting and so wait and see.

    And one for Perth. 3.30, Piton Pete. This one may now be getting the hang of chasing. There may not be a true front runner in this race and so the pace may not be that hot? Anyway worth a go for 2.5 points win. 4/1 as I write.

    Wednesday tips were profitable thanks to Cape Of Good Hope who drifted out to 4/1 but came home first and looked as if it would get a mile and a half in June.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


    • I think in part you are right, the trainers will in their way always have a horse ready for the track, but, these days especially with all the modern technology and state of the arts monitoring equipment they will know if the horse is at peak physical performance, but, as we have said some of them are little monkeys and it becomes that old cliche of a footballer “Once they step across the line!”…
      I know when I`m out running, some days i can feel that I`m in tip top condition, then something may happen on the way round like a cyclist nearly mowing me down, or crossing a road and their is a fella there revving his engine and my “focus” goes and I`m then chasing a time that I know i can no longer achieve! Horses are no different, especially with jumpers, it may be a horse falls in front of them, they get bumped, they miss the start and they normally front run etc etc.
      I don`t think there is a one size fits all solution, otherwise we would all be rich etc, or poor because everyone has sussed it out.
      Studying race replays does take time, but, like Josh and a few others, me included, it does pay off every now and again, especially when you see certain horses, like Walt and Whisperinthebreeze, who you know have high cruising speeds, but, no turn of foot at the end of a race, if you watch WITB from the Irish National on Monday, he cruises to the front, but, once the button is pushed, he emptied out quickly…Walt, needs it soft and he is then able to cruise round horses that have gone off too quick in sloppy/tacky ground on a flat course, he would have hated that good ground at Perth yesterday and i cannot for the life of me understand why he was sent off 7/2 favourite…???

      Stewart 11/08/19 4:04 PM Reply


      • Just to add, before someone says Walt won at Kempton on good ground, i have a couple of friends who walked the course that day and they said it was tacky, certainly not definite “good” ground as i would suspect the “good” ground yesterday at Perth was probably drying good as opposed to tacky good ground…Suppose unless you are actually there you never really can tell.

        Stewart 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


  • I see WH and PP have now removed BOG on bets placed the evening before racing…I don’t think it’ll be long before the others follow suit. Won’t effect me as I don’t place my bets till the morning of racing anyway.

    stanmellor 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


    • I also note that William Hill have taken away the double result. Although I appreciate that there are not many disqualifications I do like to have that bit of insurance. I do believe that my turnover will them will drop to virtually nil because of this

      Edward Crisp 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • Thats what you have to do, get rid of the weed and make a selection on whats left. Sadly 10/1 plus winners are like fishing for Salmon where there’s plenty of perch, so patience is needed. Nothing better than getting the enthusiasm up. Great pick.

    chubnut 24/04/19 6:27 PM Reply


    • cheers, oh yep that’s true. Trying to improve judging when something 7/2-7/1 etc is still value also, but yep in the 8/1, 10/1+ range will always mean some quiet times/long losing runs.

      That point about getting rid of the weed is a good one – clearly you can make a case based on profile of the horse, but that case can greatly be enhanced if you have views about why x, y and z won’t run their race, are the wrong price etc. The video analysis has helped- esp watching how horses ‘stay on’, and jumping which sounds simplistic but you can’t underestimate the importance of fluent jumping in a chase! and that is something you can only take a view on by watching replays, esp when a horse is under pressure. The laser focus on asking whether the horse is actually well-handicapped also helps! Two main ways for that are increasing use of RPR figures, and hot form – esp given that in general I want to be on unexposed horses/those that haven’t as yet hit their ceiling in conditions, rather than an old timer who’s coming back down the ratings. That’s more important in flat handicaps I think, but not so much the chasing game imo. And of course PACE 🙂 Mainly those who I know will be up there- many of my recent chase winners have never been that far off the pace, certainly final circuit, and a few have just made all. Anyway, plenty to work on, but hopefully that 3m+ chase pile can keep climbing as the year goes on.

      Now just to find a few 25/1 handicap winners at Punchy/Galway, and all will be right again!

      Josh 24/04/19 6:53 PM Reply


    • It`s worked for me CN, agree with Josh, even though he scratches his head at my write ups, i see things from the RP back catalog, race wise also, as the way forward. I really enjoy trawling through the old form of some horses, classic case of this may be my tip for Ballydine on Saturday, i feel he needs it to be good or better underfoot, it has always seemed to me that he has struggled getting his hooves out of the heavy ground he has encountered this NH season, hopefully there will not be too much rain and the ground will stay firmish for him on Saturday, but, just watch how he struggled at Uttoxeter lto, but, Josh would say he has won on soft, agreed, but, in my opinion i would say his “action” to me says he would appreciate a sounder surface, again, it is a matter of how people read races and watch the replays… Your right about sorting the weeds out though CN, know i keep banong on about it, but, yours and everyone else`s invaluable advice has helped me tenfold since the start of my “experiment ” over the sticks, just one last hurrah and then back on it again come Punchestown..haha

      Stewart 24/04/19 7:15 PM Reply


      • I don’t scratch my head at ALL your write ups Stewart haha 🙂 Just the occasional horse , which at times is how you explain the odd form comment I think, but yea some of it is how we read things differently! More so chasers for sure. But that’s the game and your record this jumps season is far superior to mine.

        Josh 24/04/19 7:23 PM Reply


  • Can I ask a dumb question regarding S#1 Jumps: G1/3 10/1 or more. I’m a lemming. I follow the strategies ‘religiously’ contrary to popular thought and that’s because I don’t know enough to question your wisdom. However. It has occurred to me several times over the winter in small fields say only 4,5,6 runners whether the G3 element stands up to scrutiny? Are any of the statos among you able to shed any light?

    Cheers. Mick.

    fearherbedroc 24/04/19 8:40 PM Reply


    • It’s not a dumb question. I’ll get back to you with some thoughts in the morning!

      Josh 24/04/19 10:13 PM Reply


      • Hi Mick,

        It is a good question, and one i’ve pondered. Sadly I don’t keep stats for field sizes etc and if I had staff, that’s the sort of detail I probably should look at!
        With Jumps S1 – it feels like plenty of smaller fields this year, but i’m not sure if that’s different to 2018 across the board when they worked well in live play, or the year before that- but there could be something to it, and that they’re best in bigger fields. Maybe there have been too many falsely run races which impacts negatively and horses sneeking into a G3 in a small field , albeit Dr Peter May has a very complex approach to speed ratings, and i don’t really know how they’re derived at or whether such things are considered. Or the ground has just buggered everything up, given how dry it has been.
        Jumps S1 does only have a win SR of 8-10%, so lulls are to be expected – and profit with these angles tends to come in spikes. 2018 was very good. It’s had a quiet jumps season this year, since Oct, hovering around 0 / small loss, but we shall see what it does next Autumn, maybe that’s where all winners will be – sadly they take the summer jumps off. It has been poor compared to previous years. You may be right, but i don’t have the info to say either way.

        Josh 25/04/19 11:35 AM Reply


        • Thanks for looking into this josh. Appreciate it. I just feel sometimes when fields are small it’s not that difficult to get into the top 3 and I’ve almost stopped myself from backing a 20/1 outsider of 4. But then stranger things have happened. Just wondered if you had any stats. Thanks anyway. Mick

          fearherbedroc 25/04/19 8:22 PM Reply


  • I honestly tried taking a week off but I struggle to keep away:

    Its All A Joke Beverley 14:50 1pt e/w-12/1-Most of this field look pretty exposed unlike the selection. Has won 3 times for his new trainer on the AW and makes his flat debut for the trainer. Gets a plum draw and should be able to race prominently and get a nice tow into the race. Won a class 4 3 starts ago and is only 1lb higher and the 2nd franked the form placing in a couple of class 3s. Next time out he ran in a very hot race which has produced multiple winners. There are few trainers hotter than Archie Watson at the moment and he is 3/9, 6p at the track so anything he sends up here should be respected. Thought he had an excellent chance.
    Defi Sacre Perth 17:10 1pt e/w-12/1-Ran in a hot race 2 starts ago and stumbled at the start of the last race and never quite got into the race. Hobson targets this meeting and had 3 winners from his previous 5 runners before this year. One of those winners happened to be for the same owner. I liked that he has employed Danny Cook who is 2/4 for the trainer in handicaps and thought in an open looking race he looked overpriced.

    Nick Mazur 24/04/19 8:47 PM Reply


    • Welcome back Nick.

      stanmellor 24/04/19 8:59 PM Reply


    • Good to see you back Nick. Ignore Chubnut – he’s no more than a WUM (wind up merchant). The sooner Josh gets rid of him the better in my view.

      Phil Coverdale 24/04/19 9:03 PM Reply


      • It’s All A Joke and Sacred Challenge – Sounds like many people’s feelings reading a Chubnut post!

        Pleased that Nick is back, fingers crossed for the luck turning.

        Chris Marshall 24/04/19 9:15 PM Reply


      • No need for that in public 🙂 . That interaction last time was the first time that nothing positive or thought provoking really came out of it.
        Clearly more thought needs to be taken by all as to how others may react and there is a polite way to inquire as to why / how something has been picked … In an educational spirit , rather than ‘you’re off your rocker’ !
        The issue there was clear…it was voicing a strong opinion on selections which C had never posted in such a way previously, and happened to do so just as Nick was having a losing run. It wasn’t a great look and in essence for such comments that was final warning. I’ve still never had to kick anyone out on here and I really don’t want to and on balance there’s more good than bad but always a limit. I’m not sure C understood those points above and how the criticism of selections, worded as it was, cane across.
        That does also stem from the fact that I think he thinks no one should follow anyone blind, a view I disagree with. And C also sees it as his role to guide us sheep with things such as that…which it clearly isn’t 🙂
        Anyway. For now that’s matter closed as far as I’m concerned. There is a way to comment and interact and we can all reflect on how to do that better at times. But I’m ever conscious of the mood.
        I don’t wish to discuss this any further in public anymore. Next time I’ll be more active in managing the situation. There’s positives to be taken from most situations. 🙂

        Josh 24/04/19 9:16 PM Reply


        • Everyone makes mistakes,lets all have a cuddle and get back to making some money, good luck all

          Festival Freebie 24/04/19 9:53 PM Reply


          • Hear Hear FF.
            Whilst I do not think that Josh should allow offensive comments (and he obviously doesn’t) there should be room for alternative views. Otherwise, the site will end up like Oxbridge. i.e.. if you don’t agree with someone, ban them.

            Mike

            mike1974 25/04/19 11:11 AM Reply


    • Good to have you back and hopefully refreshed, Nick.

      mangomasher 24/04/19 9:13 PM Reply


    • HOORAY.

      steveindisguise 24/04/19 9:30 PM Reply


    • Really good to see you on again Nick

      brisha 25/04/19 10:10 AM Reply


    • Yay! So pleased you’re back.

      Mick

      fearherbedroc 25/04/19 10:18 AM Reply


      • Yes great to see you back Nick, all the best !

        John Unitt 25/04/19 12:09 PM Reply


    • Welcome home Nick hope you enjoyed your break

      aaron l 25/04/19 12:17 PM Reply


    • Did nobody but me pick up on the name of Nick`s first pick?? It`s all a joke…. 🙂 Really?? hahaha

      Stewart 25/04/19 2:34 PM Reply


  • Interesting to read the above. One thing I am certain of though is that the study of form is not the be all and end all of tipping horses. Otherwise it would be easy. The only judgement I have of a tipster is long term profit, however they achieve it. That is up to them.
    What you need to understand is that in a way horses are like most humans, generally inconsistent. What you need to do is use analysis to try to find when they are going to run to their better form. Recency bias is in the mind and must be managed. I think that these things were picked up in part in the comments above, reading between the lines.

    Anyway, onto Thursday. And on to Chelmsford.

    6.30, King Robert, a course winner that should be prominent and so get a clear run. So worth 2 points win bet. It is 5/1 as I write.
    7.00, Foxtrot Lady, who’s trainer is in form and is a distance winner. Now has a go on the all weather as his first run of the season. The race looks competitive at the level but this one may be an improver for 2019? So 2 points win. 11/2 at present but may be drifting and so wait and see.

    And one for Perth. 3.30, Piton Pete. This one may now be getting the hang of chasing. There may not be a true front runner in this race and so the pace may not be that hot? Anyway worth a go for 2.5 points win. 4/1 as I write.

    Wednesday tips were profitable thanks to Cape Of Good Hope who drifted out to 4/1 but came home first and looked as if it would get a mile and a half in June.

    Good luck.

    martin colwell 24/04/19 8:47 PM Reply


    • I think in part you are right, the trainers will in their way always have a horse ready for the track, but, these days especially with all the modern technology and state of the arts monitoring equipment they will know if the horse is at peak physical performance, but, as we have said some of them are little monkeys and it becomes that old cliche of a footballer “Once they step across the line!”…
      I know when I`m out running, some days i can feel that I`m in tip top condition, then something may happen on the way round like a cyclist nearly mowing me down, or crossing a road and their is a fella there revving his engine and my “focus” goes and I`m then chasing a time that I know i can no longer achieve! Horses are no different, especially with jumpers, it may be a horse falls in front of them, they get bumped, they miss the start and they normally front run etc etc.
      I don`t think there is a one size fits all solution, otherwise we would all be rich etc, or poor because everyone has sussed it out.
      Studying race replays does take time, but, like Josh and a few others, me included, it does pay off every now and again, especially when you see certain horses, like Walt and Whisperinthebreeze, who you know have high cruising speeds, but, no turn of foot at the end of a race, if you watch WITB from the Irish National on Monday, he cruises to the front, but, once the button is pushed, he emptied out quickly…Walt, needs it soft and he is then able to cruise round horses that have gone off too quick in sloppy/tacky ground on a flat course, he would have hated that good ground at Perth yesterday and i cannot for the life of me understand why he was sent off 7/2 favourite…???

      Stewart 25/04/19 7:52 AM Reply


      • Just to add, before someone says Walt won at Kempton on good ground, i have a couple of friends who walked the course that day and they said it was tacky, certainly not definite “good” ground as i would suspect the “good” ground yesterday at Perth was probably drying good as opposed to tacky good ground…Suppose unless you are actually there you never really can tell.

        Stewart 25/04/19 8:00 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh, just need your email address when you can. Cheers.

    russell 11/08/19 1:41 PM Reply


  • I see WH and PP have now removed BOG on bets placed the evening before racing…I don’t think it’ll be long before the others follow suit. Won’t effect me as I don’t place my bets till the morning of racing anyway.

    stanmellor 24/04/19 9:01 PM Reply


    • I also note that William Hill have taken away the double result. Although I appreciate that there are not many disqualifications I do like to have that bit of insurance. I do believe that my turnover will them will drop to virtually nil because of this

      Edward Crisp 24/04/19 9:11 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, just need your email address when you can. Cheers.

    russell 25/04/19 12:56 AM Reply


  • no selections today unless my hangover improves 🙂

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 1:41 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Festival
    P 4.05 – Sandymount on 1st run @ 12
    GL

    Titus 11/08/19 1:41 PM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    4.15 Warwick Robin The Raven BOG 8/1
    4.40 Kempton Tidalwatch BOG 13/2
    NEW METHOD
    1.50 Perth Snookered BOG 7/2
    5.10 Perth Rizzardo BOG 11/2
    Colin

    cleafe 11/08/19 1:41 PM Reply


    • Nice elite, two winners today

      Edward Crisp 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


      • Hipster brain synapses reverting from pain management to race reading. Expect an increase in winners from now on. ( high 5 smiley)

        chubnut 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


  • no selections today unless my hangover improves 🙂

    Martin Whittle 25/04/19 7:09 AM Reply


  • STEWART…. in reply to your chat with Martin ! Apologies in advance, but I’m sat here most confused.. again! … (and such a sad addiction to detail as below is probably why racing is for me!)
    *

    ???? haha ‘Walt won at Kempton on Good ground!’ I’ll get back to him in a moment, but you’ve confused the hell out of me again 🙂

    Your running comments etc/that para, are spot on I think – any number of reasons why a horse may not perform, outside of not liking the track/going conditions etc- there’s some things we will never see, or be able to understand because they are animals, but without doubt when you’re track side some horses jump out, and often trainers will talk about horses ‘coming into their coats’ etc – some do just like natural sunlight to perk them up! Peter Bowen always does well in early summer, from now on, because he uses sunlamps/artifical light, to trick the horses/coats into thinking it’s summer, as an aside. Think Dan Skelton and others prob do that now also. When Blessed ran two starts ago that race was over before she entered the stalls – I could just tell she was having an off day by her pre race behaviour etc . You can pick up plenty watching video replays with such things as to why a horse may run badly – esp fences- and as you say, making an early error, not holding position, out of rhythm early for whatever reason etc etc

    The going…

    Walt… this is like Kimberlite Candy again, when we look at the same horse, and come to completely opposite conclusions, which always bemuses me and makes me think I need new glasses!! (as I think we are dealing in facts here not subjective ‘form assessment’)

    How can you look at his chase form (not his soft ground win over hurdles) and conclude he wants soft? I just don’t know how you do that. His two chase wins were on officially ‘good’, and the times at both Taunton and Kempton (only 4s below standard, that wasn’t tacky I don’t think, not on that time assessment, and not how Adrien D P cruised into it from the back imo) confirm the ground was good, no soft anywhere in sight. He bolted up by 15L at Taunton , and that was good. As punters, esp if not at the track, surely to some extent we have to trust that information, not just ignore it?

    I’ve no idea how anyone could look at his chase wins, and conclude he wants soft (different from saying he won’t handle it of course), and that the Perth ground wouldn’t suit… I mean surely in that circumstance the default has to be he wants good ground over fences, based on his winning form? Given he’s never won over fences on soft also. I don’t understand that logic? This isn’t some subjective disagreement, surely from the information us punters have available, re his chase form, that’s just a fact? (and the times at Perth, 13s below standard, suggest it wasn’t a road)

    You tipped him at Kempton didn’t you? (a superb pick btw) Surely you did that on the basis it was Good as described, given it went up in the morning. You didn’t conclude he wants soft, and assume the official description was nonsense, or did you?

    Who knows what happened at Perth – maybe it was too quick, I agree that ‘summer good’ (which it still isn’t imo) may have been different from Taunt/Kemp, but that’s not to say he wants soft. It could be the 11-12 he couldn’t cope with, having scooted around off 10-6 at Kempton, and all of that extra weight would have been led in the saddle cloth – Venetia once said even 3-6lb can make a big difference on how horses feel and esp how they jump etc. His jumping was scrappy early on in that. It could be he just went up north for a day out, as space in the horsebox, given trainer had another runner- and that Kempton was his Gold Cup, tuned up for the minute. Looking back also, not impossible the Visor has worn off now, or he just doesn’t like travelling that far! But there were enough reasons to take him on at 7/2 – but I didn’t look at him and think that ground/going would be the excuse!

    And the Kimberlite Candy one was similar also, which I still don’t understand. His 3 chase wins were on soft and heavy/slugging it out, staying on… how do I conclude from his chase form- the evidence available- that he wants a road? And that he’d improve for better ground? His superb staying on effort at Sandown was on soft also. His jumping was scrappy at Newcastle, a time 4 seconds below standard (so it was quick), and Fairyhouse was good to soft . I’m still bemused how you’d conclude he’d improve from Newcastle to Fairy when the ground was similar – well it was softer at Fairy- did you conclude better ground would help because of the figures you use/ how you watch a horse?? And ignore his actual winning chase form? Sounds like that may be the case, which is fair enough if that’s your approach, and this season it’s worked. Maybe i’m looking at those two horses with the wrong eyes!

    Sorry to bang on about that Stewart, you can tell me where to go. But when you make a comment like ‘Walt needs it soft’ , (and these ground comments more generally) I start to question my approach to looking at chasers and given i’m such a pedantic sod with such detail when it comes to chasers esp, i had to comment, as I just don’t get that viewpoint at all – it looks factually correct to state that on the evidence available, Walt is a good ground chaser! (which is different from saying he won’t handle soft – but comparing novice / hncp h form, to chasing is tricky, until proven otherwise over fences imo)

    So apols if that’s annoying. I don’t know how I can look at Walt and conclude on the evidence available , he wants ‘good’ to be at his best, and you conclude he wants soft. And how I can look at Kimberlite Candy, and conclude, on the evidence available, he’s best on soft/heavy, and you conclude he’ll improve for much better ground. Are we to just ignore what these horses have actually done on the racetrack? Or are you ignoring such ‘form’ , and using sets of figures / your eyes etc, which indicate all those going preferences are nonsense?

    I’m just trying to improve my own understanding here, as I am a tad perplexed, and it’s not impossible that it’s me ! 🙂 And if I read something and I think the complete opposite (which is the case with these two, on something I don’t think is subjective) I have to comment 🙂

    Josh

    p.s … in an ideal world we would have a ‘tacky’ going description but we don’t sadly as yet, and I think it’s best generally to go on what we can see etc

    Josh 11/08/19 1:41 PM Reply


    • I agree, with the soft description was maybe a bit too specific, as I had access to the actual tacky information I suppose I was at an advantage of your average punter who unless they have someone trackside, will have to take the going as a description from a paper/ online the night/ day before. I believe he likes tacky good ground and not firm good ground if that makes sense, your right with my calculations are done night before based on the ground described then and I did think looking at his action, that he would like the cut more than the firmness, trying to be scientific with that and failing… haha! When I got the call from my friends on Friday evening, I then was happier at the decision I made at selecting Walt and was ever more confident with that the nearer the race got, there were other factors the day before that I did mention in the write up and the fact STD was on board was a big plus, yesterday though, I steered away from him as there was more minus points than positives, again in my opinion.

      Stewart 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


      • thanks for the reply. Yep, maybe he’s a tacky ground horse – but until the sport has such a description, or you have someone track side early, i tend to think we’re best going with what’s in the formbook re going and the times to standard, personally. Or use of other software, but the likes of Timeform are too pricey for me.

        The ‘watching the action’ point is a good on, more so for one unexposed/yet to be proven in anything as such, or if they’ve been getting away with it on going X. But, i’d have still looked at his Taunton win and concluded that I wouldn’t touch him if soft in the going. The safe assumption for Taunton was to assume, on official going and the times, that the best chase performance of his life had taken place on good ground. That’s how i’d have looked at it but maybe it was tacky on the day also, who knows, guessing there.
        Oh it was a great bet on the day, one i was nowhere near, with plenty of positives with my hindsight eyes! And there were many valid reasons to take him on at Perth for sure.
        I will forever be perplexed though when this happens and it will no doubt happen again, when you think a horse wants X ground and I think the complete opposite! And i’ll just have to deal with scratching my head! 🙂

        Josh 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


      • I do try and do pace with a good old fashioned stopwatch running against furlong pole markers on the video footage I watch, which is why sometimes I say about pace, which is my own interpretation of race reading, it is a little haphazard as I say, because some of the replays I`m guessing as to where the furlong markers are,(some of the NH tracks don`t even have them marked…haha), so, then I take into account the going, speed figures and standard time etc. Don`t want to give too many of my secrets away…especially the fact I`m totally mad!!? 🙂

        Stewart 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


        • Ha, well that probably makes two of us in truth!! 🙂

          having said all that, I do think a good rule of thumb is never to assume a horse ‘cant’ do something, which I would argue is different from identifying where/what conditions they have run to their best, to date.
          In any case whatever approach you have, it’s been working fine. Maybe i need to start looking at the going with different eyes. I’ll ponder.
          Josh

          Josh 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


          • I did know someone who worked at Haydock within the ground staff, they said that they once got a right “b**locking” when Henry Cecil came in with his “ground stick” and said it was going in 2 inches, meaning the ground was good to firm and the groundsman in question turned round and said “Well, we have it at 8 inches, which is probably why us Northerners end up with more women than you lot!!”. Ground was officially “Good” according to the 8 inch reading…haha. Make of that what you will!!
            Think the shot about what a horse can do, rather not is a great shout though and something i will use moving forward!

            Stewart 12/08/19 9:38 AM Reply


  • Thought it was April Fools day today when flicking through the Daily Mail page 7.
    Ladbrokes boss ban gambling adverts from all TV sports, during live sports before 9 pm
    He also revealed Ladbrokes would be cancelling all its shirt sponsorship deals so football fans can watch their teams without seeing incentives to bet also to stop advertising on boards at the perimeter of football pitches, there is much more in the article.
    All i can say its about time and a lot more still needs to be done over these greedy companies, lets hope this is a start for me no bookmakers should be allowed to sponsor football clubs, it is on par when tobacco adverts sponsored F1 and the sport survived without them
    Have pinched myself a couple of times and wide awake, and await to see it happen!
    Colin

    cleafe 11/08/19 1:41 PM Reply


    • Think the bit about banning adverts during live sports was agreed with all the big bookies a while back. This is just Lads making it look as if it was their idea. Bookies are a bit like having a missus. You can’t live with them but you can’t live without them. If there were no bookies, we wouldn’t be able to indulge in our passion and Josh would probably be doing something worthwhile with that degrree of his rather than running this blog :-

      Ken McKenzie 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


      • 🙂 🙂 🙂 haha, quite!! Bookies… some can’t live with them, we can’t live without them! 🙂

        Josh 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


      • Ken
        Disagree best move divorcing the wife back to being 18 down town dancing different ladies every time,dancing only sadly!!! no it is a ball, son came to live with me from 12 best of both words, certainly can live without the ex wife. ha ha.
        Recommend it!
        Colin

        cleafe 11/08/19 2:53 PM Reply


  • THE S.B.C. ALL WEATHER LOONEY TUNERS (THAT’S NOT A CLUB CLUB) DAILY BULLETIN BOARD :
    ***************************************************************************
    5.30 Chelmers Houlton
    LOGIC : Ryan Moore factor
    5.30 Chelmers Singing The Blues
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health at the moment
    6.00 Chelmers Hero Hero (IRE)
    LOGIC : Trainer in rude health at the mo & Favourites / month qualifier
    6.30 Chelmers King Robert
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health
    7.00 Chelmers Foxtrot Lady
    LOGIC : Trainer in rude health
    7.00 Chelmers Dream Of Dreams
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health at the mo & Favourites / month qualifier /
    dropped in class as well
    7.00 Chelmers Eirene
    LOGIC : dropped in class
    7.00 Chelmers Hey Jonesy (IRE)
    LOGIC : dropped in class
    7.00 Chelmers Rock On Baileys
    LOGIC : dropped in class
    7.30 Chelmers Pentland Lad (IRE)
    LOGIC : jockey in rude health
    7.30 Chelmers Temple of Wonder
    LOGIC : jockey in rude health
    8.00 Chelmers Itsakindamagic
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health
    8.00 Chelmers Top Mission
    LOGIC : jockey in rude health
    8.00 Chelmers Labrega
    LOGIC : Interesting first time headgear ( hood – positive for this trainer )
    8.00 Chelmers Bacacarat (IRE)
    LOGIC : Trainer in rude health
    8.30 Chelmers Blame Culture
    LOGIC : jockey really rates this horse as an improver eventually over a mile and
    jockey has a very impressive strike rate when riding as top weight
    9.00 Chelmers All Or Nothin (IRE)
    LOGIC : Obviously caution with a capital “C” …. but this jockey is superb around this track …i will be having my usual 10p on the 4tbp market just before the off
    9.00 Chelmers Sybil Grand
    LOGIC : Trainer maybe coming into form now (winner over the jumps yesterday)
    AS WE KNOW ….. my mumblings are NOT TIPS !….. JUST THINKING OUT LOUD !!
    And also please be aware my systems are still in the early stages and i constantly tweak them 😉 .. but i am going in the right direction thanks to the inspiration oozing from this site – thanks 🙂
    Have a good now and keep it fun
    gb 🙂
    M.C. Where fore owt thou ???? .. you having a lie in again ?????? Please can you rip the above to shreds and advise on any certian winners like you do … innit 🙂

    George B 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


    • I’m here VP George. Have you developed a new rude health system? 🙂

      These look interesting, will get looking, thanks. Might be back here around 3/3.30 love late AS meetings!

      Mark Curtis 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


      • B dare or OR b square my man …….. “AS” ..Does that mean ALL SAND ….. lol ???
        cathc u later … i will try not too lose too much in between times 😉
        gb 🙂

        George B 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


      • p.p.s. my rude healthers are just one of my 250 + micro angles now input into my hrb systems .. ffs ……. you gotta luv it 🙂 laters
        gb 🙂

        George B 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


        • Bloomin’ auto correct on my Kindle tablet!

          Mark Curtis 12/08/19 9:38 AM Reply


      • good news mc .. my tipping finger is back on track .. 2.15 tipping comps back on target 🙂 had the forecast to boot .. can sleep well now until chelmers tonight .. happy days are here again … 🙂
        gb 🙂 singing again

        George B 11/08/19 11:40 PM Reply


        • Well done Gmeister, let’s hope your luck keeps running to Chelmsford 🙂 back soon

          Mark Curtis 12/08/19 12:18 PM Reply


          • SBC Chelmsford Update

            Been through your list with a fine tooth comb G, and had a good look on Geegeez too. Here are the result from the Rebel MC Jury:

            5.30 – this looks quite a hot race. I see the appeal of Mr Chatty’s mount but also quite like the Pinto Kid (if fit enough) and Singing the Blues. I think I would plump for the latter as my saver dropping back to 1m6f.

            6.00 – I like Hero Hero (T/J stats here 60%win/60% place over 12 months). However, the stats for Ice Cave are 83% win/place here over 5 years which is quite impressive. At the prices going for Ice Cave.

            6.30 – agree King Robert, must save on Walk on Walter, in tremendous form.

            7.00 – possibly the most difficult race of the evening, aside from the 8.00. All of your list have good chances, and the race is complicated further by Mr Ivory also running Tropics who I fancy to go well. Rock on Baileys disadvantaged at the weights but will do EW at a price.

            7.30 – Like Temple of Wonder and Griggy.

            8.00 – another nightmare race to only pick a couple in. Bacaccarat has the good stats from the Hero Hero team, I like the others on your list but really like Samphire Coast (not on your list lol). His course record round here is brilliant, he’s well drawn tonight. My best bet tonight. Also worried about Able Jack!

            8.30 – totally with you on Blame Culture.

            9.00 – No strong views, time for an aspirin and a lie down.

            All the best with your bets, cheers for now.

            Mark Curtis 12/08/19 12:18 PM Reply


  • A few races today so will kick off with 2..
    1.40 Bev. low grade C5 with a short priced fav Iva Go is not value given the below average speeds all those that have run clocked up. Favs are 47%. 2nd favs 12% in this race. The base lines I use to determine the quality of a run are Mordin’s Universal Standard Times and my own variation based on my own calculations, so for 5f the average speed of a horse over this distance on Mordin’s scale is 38.726 mph…mine is 37.27…the fav in this race ran 35.57 mph and that was the fastest time of those that have run…so tells you everything about the actual quality of the race…pretty low grade stuff and therefore more unpredictable. The trainer of the fav is 4 from 79 = 5% and the jockey is 8% 5-62 so not awe inspiring. Having said that the fav may still win by default due to the poor speeds of the other horses that have run…Amnaa ran 34.65 mph, Azteca ran 34.61 mph,, She’s Easyontheeye 34.65, Siena Bay, 34.38 mph…that run was in a class 2 so can we say that because the horse can win having dropped 3 classes…the betting and trainer and jockey (0-18) stats say not so the question remains is there anything in the unraced horses that is better than the fav? Dods is the best trainer 26% (6-23) running Mecca’s Hot Steps and the pedigree is good…stable form could be better and low draws are more favourable so a conundrum to find a winner. I much prefer horses that have had a run as opposed to unraced horses but in this race cannot see anything to oppose the fav. If Easterby’s other horse Siena Bay was better drawn and the jockey was not 0-18 then the 2nd string theorists may consider this a back able price e/w….. Azteca may improve and Amnaa may give the fav a run, and the Dods horse with the good pedigree like others here may be a cut above and be better than all that have had a previous run, but an uninspiring race and not one to bet for me, personally, as there are too many imponderables to come to afirm conclusion.

    2.15 Bev is better quality with both Maybelline and Knight Cap running at above average speeds. The former clocked 37.38 mph and the latter 37.36 mph. They are the two fastest horses and think it is between these two. Favs are 47% so 15/8 Knight Cap is value…Both the Johnston and Fahey horses have to be respected…I personally like the pedigree of Baileys in Bloom and despite the draw could outrun the odds but think whatever wins, will have to go some to beat the two at the top of the market . Gd lck with what you decide to back…will try and be back later for others. All the best

    silver 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


    • fascinating .. thanks silver .. let’s hope alll the planets align for us today ? 🙂
      p.s. i have this vision of you with a speed gun trackside ( is there a speed limit on the tracks btw .. .lol ??)
      lol ….. alwaus having fun…………………………
      gb 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


      • No speed gun…you do make me laugh…like I have mentioned previously my nearest accessible track is Musselburgh by plane so it is more simple (like me) than that use RPR site! lot easier and not as expensive as flying all over the place with a speed gun lol…hilarious image though

        silver 12/08/19 7:03 AM Reply


    • Hope you backed it Silver. Great price for a Fahey 2yo at this time of year.
      Hugh

      alpha2 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


  • 4.55 Beverly Stringybrook Creek 8/1

    My first foray into the mystical world of flat racing using my simplistic and flawed approach:
    Trainer has good profit at track
    Trainer in good form 3/10 last 14 days
    Horse is 2/3 here
    Jockey 1/2 here
    Jockey 2/5 last 14 days

    gearoid180468 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


    • Surely its impossible to win using such sparse stats, I suggest a book on quantum mechanics from Amazon. Maybe the unseasonable weather is getting to you but I’ll have a tenner on ( sweating chub smiley)
      PS: I was up to see Yeatsy the other day, he’s got a new headstone !! “cast a cold eye on life” still rings so true.

      chubnut 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


      • But I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.

        gearoid180468 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


        • I have a friend who has a stall on Moore Street.We call him Diesel Fitter.Anytime a man passes by he produces a pair of ladies drawers and shouts diesel fitter diesel fitter

          gearoid180468 11/08/19 11:20 PM Reply


          • 🙂

            George B 12/08/19 4:55 AM Reply


        • We’ll have to get you voted in for culture minister

          chubnut 11/08/19 11:20 PM Reply


    • Sound reasoning Gearoid, if it wasn’t for the fav it would be a strong bet. Am going with you EW, hoping the fav blows out. 🙂

      Best of luck.

      Mark Curtis 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


      • He’s likely to! Well… Ruth Carr is only 7/86 with LTO winners in last 2 years, 57% below market expectation- so, if there’s a trainer’s LTO winners to take on, those from her yard would appear to be it – albeit he did win oh so easily, you’d have thought he’d go close, but up in ratings and up in class, to give Gerry and any followers some hope! GL

        Josh 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


    • all i can say to give you added confidence Gearoid , it’s not on any of my lists .. … so should be therefore marked up as good bet imho 😉 .. although i do normally have a bit of shrapnel on any horses with the name “creek” in them 😉 ( sounds a bit like my second name if you say it fast enough) .. i hope your horse is fast enough today
      gl / gb : )

      George B 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


  • finally recovered enough to take a proper look at today’s cards, first time out since January and had far to much forgot i was a lightweight these days.
    Warwick 3-10. Robinshill 25-1 sky 4 places, down in class and upped in trip well handicapped these days after a year in the doldrums if he’s ever going to win again today could be the day. 1/2 pt ew
    Perth 3-30. Bigmartre 4-1 , back in a C2 and on good ground as long as the rain stays away should have every chance 1pt win
    Beverly 2-50. Musharrif 4-1, good run at Pontefract lto after a break should have set him up for this , c+d winner 1pt win

    Martin Whittle 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


    • staked 3 pts, rteturns 5 pts, up 2 pts.

      Martin Whittle 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


  • Selections up on TC page.

    Tim Hanson 11/08/19 2:28 PM Reply


  • STATS/TRENDS… Sandown bet365 chase on Sat…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Sandown-bet365-chase.pdf

    Josh

    Josh 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


  • RECENT TIPS
    Festival
    P 4.05 – Sandymount on 1st run @ 12
    GL

    Titus 25/04/19 9:41 AM Reply


  • COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    4.15 Warwick Robin The Raven BOG 8/1
    4.40 Kempton Tidalwatch BOG 13/2
    NEW METHOD
    1.50 Perth Snookered BOG 7/2
    5.10 Perth Rizzardo BOG 11/2
    Colin

    cleafe 25/04/19 10:01 AM Reply


    • Nice elite, two winners today

      Edward Crisp 25/04/19 5:16 PM Reply


      • Hipster brain synapses reverting from pain management to race reading. Expect an increase in winners from now on. ( high 5 smiley)

        chubnut 25/04/19 6:51 PM Reply


  • STEWART…. in reply to your chat with Martin ! Apologies in advance, but I’m sat here most confused.. again! … (and such a sad addiction to detail as below is probably why racing is for me!)
    *

    ???? haha ‘Walt won at Kempton on Good ground!’ I’ll get back to him in a moment, but you’ve confused the hell out of me again 🙂

    Your running comments etc/that para, are spot on I think – any number of reasons why a horse may not perform, outside of not liking the track/going conditions etc- there’s some things we will never see, or be able to understand because they are animals, but without doubt when you’re track side some horses jump out, and often trainers will talk about horses ‘coming into their coats’ etc – some do just like natural sunlight to perk them up! Peter Bowen always does well in early summer, from now on, because he uses sunlamps/artifical light, to trick the horses/coats into thinking it’s summer, as an aside. Think Dan Skelton and others prob do that now also. When Blessed ran two starts ago that race was over before she entered the stalls – I could just tell she was having an off day by her pre race behaviour etc . You can pick up plenty watching video replays with such things as to why a horse may run badly – esp fences- and as you say, making an early error, not holding position, out of rhythm early for whatever reason etc etc

    The going…

    Walt… this is like Kimberlite Candy again, when we look at the same horse, and come to completely opposite conclusions, which always bemuses me and makes me think I need new glasses!! (as I think we are dealing in facts here not subjective ‘form assessment’)

    How can you look at his chase form (not his soft ground win over hurdles) and conclude he wants soft? I just don’t know how you do that. His two chase wins were on officially ‘good’, and the times at both Taunton and Kempton (only 4s below standard, that wasn’t tacky I don’t think, not on that time assessment, and not how Adrien D P cruised into it from the back imo) confirm the ground was good, no soft anywhere in sight. He bolted up by 15L at Taunton , and that was good. As punters, esp if not at the track, surely to some extent we have to trust that information, not just ignore it?

    I’ve no idea how anyone could look at his chase wins, and conclude he wants soft (different from saying he won’t handle it of course), and that the Perth ground wouldn’t suit… I mean surely in that circumstance the default has to be he wants good ground over fences, based on his winning form? Given he’s never won over fences on soft also. I don’t understand that logic? This isn’t some subjective disagreement, surely from the information us punters have available, re his chase form, that’s just a fact? (and the times at Perth, 13s below standard, suggest it wasn’t a road)

    You tipped him at Kempton didn’t you? (a superb pick btw) Surely you did that on the basis it was Good as described, given it went up in the morning. You didn’t conclude he wants soft, and assume the official description was nonsense, or did you?

    Who knows what happened at Perth – maybe it was too quick, I agree that ‘summer good’ (which it still isn’t imo) may have been different from Taunt/Kemp, but that’s not to say he wants soft. It could be the 11-12 he couldn’t cope with, having scooted around off 10-6 at Kempton, and all of that extra weight would have been led in the saddle cloth – Venetia once said even 3-6lb can make a big difference on how horses feel and esp how they jump etc. His jumping was scrappy early on in that. It could be he just went up north for a day out, as space in the horsebox, given trainer had another runner- and that Kempton was his Gold Cup, tuned up for the minute. Looking back also, not impossible the Visor has worn off now, or he just doesn’t like travelling that far! But there were enough reasons to take him on at 7/2 – but I didn’t look at him and think that ground/going would be the excuse!

    And the Kimberlite Candy one was similar also, which I still don’t understand. His 3 chase wins were on soft and heavy/slugging it out, staying on… how do I conclude from his chase form- the evidence available- that he wants a road? And that he’d improve for better ground? His superb staying on effort at Sandown was on soft also. His jumping was scrappy at Newcastle, a time 4 seconds below standard (so it was quick), and Fairyhouse was good to soft . I’m still bemused how you’d conclude he’d improve from Newcastle to Fairy when the ground was similar – well it was softer at Fairy- did you conclude better ground would help because of the figures you use/ how you watch a horse?? And ignore his actual winning chase form? Sounds like that may be the case, which is fair enough if that’s your approach, and this season it’s worked. Maybe i’m looking at those two horses with the wrong eyes!

    Sorry to bang on about that Stewart, you can tell me where to go. But when you make a comment like ‘Walt needs it soft’ , (and these ground comments more generally) I start to question my approach to looking at chasers and given i’m such a pedantic sod with such detail when it comes to chasers esp, i had to comment, as I just don’t get that viewpoint at all – it looks factually correct to state that on the evidence available, Walt is a good ground chaser! (which is different from saying he won’t handle soft – but comparing novice / hncp h form, to chasing is tricky, until proven otherwise over fences imo)

    So apols if that’s annoying. I don’t know how I can look at Walt and conclude on the evidence available , he wants ‘good’ to be at his best, and you conclude he wants soft. And how I can look at Kimberlite Candy, and conclude, on the evidence available, he’s best on soft/heavy, and you conclude he’ll improve for much better ground. Are we to just ignore what these horses have actually done on the racetrack? Or are you ignoring such ‘form’ , and using sets of figures / your eyes etc, which indicate all those going preferences are nonsense?

    I’m just trying to improve my own understanding here, as I am a tad perplexed, and it’s not impossible that it’s me ! 🙂 And if I read something and I think the complete opposite (which is the case with these two, on something I don’t think is subjective) I have to comment 🙂

    Josh

    p.s … in an ideal world we would have a ‘tacky’ going description but we don’t sadly as yet, and I think it’s best generally to go on what we can see etc

    Josh 25/04/19 11:12 AM Reply


    • I agree, with the soft description was maybe a bit too specific, as I had access to the actual tacky information I suppose I was at an advantage of your average punter who unless they have someone trackside, will have to take the going as a description from a paper/ online the night/ day before. I believe he likes tacky good ground and not firm good ground if that makes sense, your right with my calculations are done night before based on the ground described then and I did think looking at his action, that he would like the cut more than the firmness, trying to be scientific with that and failing… haha! When I got the call from my friends on Friday evening, I then was happier at the decision I made at selecting Walt and was ever more confident with that the nearer the race got, there were other factors the day before that I did mention in the write up and the fact STD was on board was a big plus, yesterday though, I steered away from him as there was more minus points than positives, again in my opinion.

      Stewart 25/04/19 12:04 PM Reply


      • thanks for the reply. Yep, maybe he’s a tacky ground horse – but until the sport has such a description, or you have someone track side early, i tend to think we’re best going with what’s in the formbook re going and the times to standard, personally. Or use of other software, but the likes of Timeform are too pricey for me.

        The ‘watching the action’ point is a good on, more so for one unexposed/yet to be proven in anything as such, or if they’ve been getting away with it on going X. But, i’d have still looked at his Taunton win and concluded that I wouldn’t touch him if soft in the going. The safe assumption for Taunton was to assume, on official going and the times, that the best chase performance of his life had taken place on good ground. That’s how i’d have looked at it but maybe it was tacky on the day also, who knows, guessing there.
        Oh it was a great bet on the day, one i was nowhere near, with plenty of positives with my hindsight eyes! And there were many valid reasons to take him on at Perth for sure.
        I will forever be perplexed though when this happens and it will no doubt happen again, when you think a horse wants X ground and I think the complete opposite! And i’ll just have to deal with scratching my head! 🙂

        Josh 25/04/19 12:14 PM Reply


      • I do try and do pace with a good old fashioned stopwatch running against furlong pole markers on the video footage I watch, which is why sometimes I say about pace, which is my own interpretation of race reading, it is a little haphazard as I say, because some of the replays I`m guessing as to where the furlong markers are,(some of the NH tracks don`t even have them marked…haha), so, then I take into account the going, speed figures and standard time etc. Don`t want to give too many of my secrets away…especially the fact I`m totally mad!!? 🙂

        Stewart 25/04/19 12:35 PM Reply


        • Ha, well that probably makes two of us in truth!! 🙂

          having said all that, I do think a good rule of thumb is never to assume a horse ‘cant’ do something, which I would argue is different from identifying where/what conditions they have run to their best, to date.
          In any case whatever approach you have, it’s been working fine. Maybe i need to start looking at the going with different eyes. I’ll ponder.
          Josh

          Josh 25/04/19 12:41 PM Reply


          • I did know someone who worked at Haydock within the ground staff, they said that they once got a right “b**locking” when Henry Cecil came in with his “ground stick” and said it was going in 2 inches, meaning the ground was good to firm and the groundsman in question turned round and said “Well, we have it at 8 inches, which is probably why us Northerners end up with more women than you lot!!”. Ground was officially “Good” according to the 8 inch reading…haha. Make of that what you will!!
            Think the shot about what a horse can do, rather not is a great shout though and something i will use moving forward!

            Stewart 25/04/19 12:58 PM Reply


  • 5.25 Bev…Nasty little race with no e/w value with favs 0/2 and 2nd favs … the bottom weight, Osmosis, is interesting …has an excellent pedigree….jockey Ben Curtis 12-39 43% and trainer Jason Ward 3-7 43% …best combo and the difficulty is assessing the mph factor over a longer distance than any have run is always a problem…speed horses like Oasis Prince and Kingson are difficult to get a handle on as they may not be able to stay as well as slower run horses over a longer distance with Osmosis having run over a longer distance than Kingson and Oasis Prince and in a race that was a lot higher in value..Osmosis ran a respectable mph over 8f and at the prices prefer this horse, which has an excellent pedigree comparable with the other two horses…of the other two Kingson was 11 lengths behind Cap Francais and not sure if the horse is able to have enough pace over the 8.5 furlongs…Fahey’s other runner International Guy should not be discounted but the sire stats on the going 3/93 and at the distance 1/24 uninspiring , so by a process of elimination Osmosis has to be the win only bet at the prices…I will be backing this myself but that is said to be transparent that I will be having a financial interest…it is entirely up to you if you decide to play and what to back…all the best whatever you back.

    silver 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


    • 2nd favs 1/3

      silver 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


    • hi stg :
      17.25 my system has thrown up :
      al suil eile / international guy / kingson ??
      gl 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 7:39 PM Reply


      • Al Suil Eile a non runner and of the remaining two Kingson is preferred but will be backing the bigger priced Osmosis as international guy ran in C6 worth 3k whereas Osmosis ran in 10k race….so I think the race is between Kingson and Osmosis…the latter trainer and form stats and price swayed me but would not be surprised if Kingson won. hope that clarifies the judgement cll I have made…gd luck if you decide on something else..all the best Top Gun Lol!!!

        silver 11/08/19 11:20 PM Reply


        • Cheers Top Gun Silver and Cap Gun G, following you both 🙂 G, SBC Update at end.of other thread.

          Mark Curtis 12/08/19 4:55 AM Reply


  • Thought it was April Fools day today when flicking through the Daily Mail page 7.
    Ladbrokes boss ban gambling adverts from all TV sports, during live sports before 9 pm
    He also revealed Ladbrokes would be cancelling all its shirt sponsorship deals so football fans can watch their teams without seeing incentives to bet also to stop advertising on boards at the perimeter of football pitches, there is much more in the article.
    All i can say its about time and a lot more still needs to be done over these greedy companies, lets hope this is a start for me no bookmakers should be allowed to sponsor football clubs, it is on par when tobacco adverts sponsored F1 and the sport survived without them
    Have pinched myself a couple of times and wide awake, and await to see it happen!
    Colin

    cleafe 25/04/19 11:30 AM Reply


    • Think the bit about banning adverts during live sports was agreed with all the big bookies a while back. This is just Lads making it look as if it was their idea. Bookies are a bit like having a missus. You can’t live with them but you can’t live without them. If there were no bookies, we wouldn’t be able to indulge in our passion and Josh would probably be doing something worthwhile with that degrree of his rather than running this blog :-

      Ken McKenzie 25/04/19 1:41 PM Reply


      • 🙂 🙂 🙂 haha, quite!! Bookies… some can’t live with them, we can’t live without them! 🙂

        Josh 25/04/19 1:44 PM Reply


      • Ken
        Disagree best move divorcing the wife back to being 18 down town dancing different ladies every time,dancing only sadly!!! no it is a ball, son came to live with me from 12 best of both words, certainly can live without the ex wife. ha ha.
        Recommend it!
        Colin

        cleafe 25/04/19 7:06 PM Reply


  • THE S.B.C. ALL WEATHER LOONEY TUNERS (THAT’S NOT A CLUB CLUB) DAILY BULLETIN BOARD :
    ***************************************************************************
    5.30 Chelmers Houlton
    LOGIC : Ryan Moore factor
    5.30 Chelmers Singing The Blues
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health at the moment
    6.00 Chelmers Hero Hero (IRE)
    LOGIC : Trainer in rude health at the mo & Favourites / month qualifier
    6.30 Chelmers King Robert
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health
    7.00 Chelmers Foxtrot Lady
    LOGIC : Trainer in rude health
    7.00 Chelmers Dream Of Dreams
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health at the mo & Favourites / month qualifier /
    dropped in class as well
    7.00 Chelmers Eirene
    LOGIC : dropped in class
    7.00 Chelmers Hey Jonesy (IRE)
    LOGIC : dropped in class
    7.00 Chelmers Rock On Baileys
    LOGIC : dropped in class
    7.30 Chelmers Pentland Lad (IRE)
    LOGIC : jockey in rude health
    7.30 Chelmers Temple of Wonder
    LOGIC : jockey in rude health
    8.00 Chelmers Itsakindamagic
    LOGIC : Jockey in rude health
    8.00 Chelmers Top Mission
    LOGIC : jockey in rude health
    8.00 Chelmers Labrega
    LOGIC : Interesting first time headgear ( hood – positive for this trainer )
    8.00 Chelmers Bacacarat (IRE)
    LOGIC : Trainer in rude health
    8.30 Chelmers Blame Culture
    LOGIC : jockey really rates this horse as an improver eventually over a mile and
    jockey has a very impressive strike rate when riding as top weight
    9.00 Chelmers All Or Nothin (IRE)
    LOGIC : Obviously caution with a capital “C” …. but this jockey is superb around this track …i will be having my usual 10p on the 4tbp market just before the off
    9.00 Chelmers Sybil Grand
    LOGIC : Trainer maybe coming into form now (winner over the jumps yesterday)
    AS WE KNOW ….. my mumblings are NOT TIPS !….. JUST THINKING OUT LOUD !!
    And also please be aware my systems are still in the early stages and i constantly tweak them 😉 .. but i am going in the right direction thanks to the inspiration oozing from this site – thanks 🙂
    Have a good now and keep it fun
    gb 🙂
    M.C. Where fore owt thou ???? .. you having a lie in again ?????? Please can you rip the above to shreds and advise on any certian winners like you do … innit 🙂

    George B 25/04/19 11:39 AM Reply


    • I’m here VP George. Have you developed a new rude health system? 🙂

      These look interesting, will get looking, thanks. Might be back here around 3/3.30 love late AS meetings!

      Mark Curtis 25/04/19 11:56 AM Reply


      • B dare or OR b square my man …….. “AS” ..Does that mean ALL SAND ….. lol ???
        cathc u later … i will try not too lose too much in between times 😉
        gb 🙂

        George B 25/04/19 11:59 AM Reply


      • p.p.s. my rude healthers are just one of my 250 + micro angles now input into my hrb systems .. ffs ……. you gotta luv it 🙂 laters
        gb 🙂

        George B 25/04/19 12:01 PM Reply


        • Bloomin’ auto correct on my Kindle tablet!

          Mark Curtis 25/04/19 12:13 PM Reply


      • good news mc .. my tipping finger is back on track .. 2.15 tipping comps back on target 🙂 had the forecast to boot .. can sleep well now until chelmers tonight .. happy days are here again … 🙂
        gb 🙂 singing again

        George B 25/04/19 2:21 PM Reply


        • Well done Gmeister, let’s hope your luck keeps running to Chelmsford 🙂 back soon

          Mark Curtis 25/04/19 2:59 PM Reply


          • SBC Chelmsford Update

            Been through your list with a fine tooth comb G, and had a good look on Geegeez too. Here are the result from the Rebel MC Jury:

            5.30 – this looks quite a hot race. I see the appeal of Mr Chatty’s mount but also quite like the Pinto Kid (if fit enough) and Singing the Blues. I think I would plump for the latter as my saver dropping back to 1m6f.

            6.00 – I like Hero Hero (T/J stats here 60%win/60% place over 12 months). However, the stats for Ice Cave are 83% win/place here over 5 years which is quite impressive. At the prices going for Ice Cave.

            6.30 – agree King Robert, must save on Walk on Walter, in tremendous form.

            7.00 – possibly the most difficult race of the evening, aside from the 8.00. All of your list have good chances, and the race is complicated further by Mr Ivory also running Tropics who I fancy to go well. Rock on Baileys disadvantaged at the weights but will do EW at a price.

            7.30 – Like Temple of Wonder and Griggy.

            8.00 – another nightmare race to only pick a couple in. Bacaccarat has the good stats from the Hero Hero team, I like the others on your list but really like Samphire Coast (not on your list lol). His course record round here is brilliant, he’s well drawn tonight. My best bet tonight. Also worried about Able Jack!

            8.30 – totally with you on Blame Culture.

            9.00 – No strong views, time for an aspirin and a lie down.

            All the best with your bets, cheers for now.

            Mark Curtis 25/04/19 3:49 PM Reply


            • Blimey mr mc .. shall now work out my backers and savers now … let’s get to it ! 🙂
              here’s to a profitable evenings entertainment .
              gl 🙂

              George B 25/04/19 4:18 PM Reply


              • How did u do G? Couple of winners but lost overall from posted selections, luckily backed Rae Guest’s in the last as was it nibbled at so cleared my losses, jammy in the extreme 🙂 Got 20s into 12s but seat of pants stuff.

                Your long list contained a few winners, so well done. Gonna attack Sandown tomoz if you’re playing.

                Mark Curtis 25/04/19 9:54 PM Reply


                • yep ……… night cost me £ 20.00 … due to not manning my station 🙁 was forced to watch mary poppins instead 🙂 … still got funds for sandown .. tally ho old chap !
                  night
                  gb 🙂
                  p.s. what the hell happened to probert on blame culture . .didn’t even get amention my text commentary ???????( thats where my £ 20.00 loss was 🙁 )

                  George B 25/04/19 10:00 PM Reply


  • A few races today so will kick off with 2..
    1.40 Bev. low grade C5 with a short priced fav Iva Go is not value given the below average speeds all those that have run clocked up. Favs are 47%. 2nd favs 12% in this race. The base lines I use to determine the quality of a run are Mordin’s Universal Standard Times and my own variation based on my own calculations, so for 5f the average speed of a horse over this distance on Mordin’s scale is 38.726 mph…mine is 37.27…the fav in this race ran 35.57 mph and that was the fastest time of those that have run…so tells you everything about the actual quality of the race…pretty low grade stuff and therefore more unpredictable. The trainer of the fav is 4 from 79 = 5% and the jockey is 8% 5-62 so not awe inspiring. Having said that the fav may still win by default due to the poor speeds of the other horses that have run…Amnaa ran 34.65 mph, Azteca ran 34.61 mph,, She’s Easyontheeye 34.65, Siena Bay, 34.38 mph…that run was in a class 2 so can we say that because the horse can win having dropped 3 classes…the betting and trainer and jockey (0-18) stats say not so the question remains is there anything in the unraced horses that is better than the fav? Dods is the best trainer 26% (6-23) running Mecca’s Hot Steps and the pedigree is good…stable form could be better and low draws are more favourable so a conundrum to find a winner. I much prefer horses that have had a run as opposed to unraced horses but in this race cannot see anything to oppose the fav. If Easterby’s other horse Siena Bay was better drawn and the jockey was not 0-18 then the 2nd string theorists may consider this a back able price e/w….. Azteca may improve and Amnaa may give the fav a run, and the Dods horse with the good pedigree like others here may be a cut above and be better than all that have had a previous run, but an uninspiring race and not one to bet for me, personally, as there are too many imponderables to come to afirm conclusion.

    2.15 Bev is better quality with both Maybelline and Knight Cap running at above average speeds. The former clocked 37.38 mph and the latter 37.36 mph. They are the two fastest horses and think it is between these two. Favs are 47% so 15/8 Knight Cap is value…Both the Johnston and Fahey horses have to be respected…I personally like the pedigree of Baileys in Bloom and despite the draw could outrun the odds but think whatever wins, will have to go some to beat the two at the top of the market . Gd lck with what you decide to back…will try and be back later for others. All the best

    silver 25/04/19 12:19 PM Reply


    • fascinating .. thanks silver .. let’s hope alll the planets align for us today ? 🙂
      p.s. i have this vision of you with a speed gun trackside ( is there a speed limit on the tracks btw .. .lol ??)
      lol ….. alwaus having fun…………………………
      gb 🙂

      George B 25/04/19 12:24 PM Reply


      • No speed gun…you do make me laugh…like I have mentioned previously my nearest accessible track is Musselburgh by plane so it is more simple (like me) than that use RPR site! lot easier and not as expensive as flying all over the place with a speed gun lol…hilarious image though

        silver 25/04/19 1:09 PM Reply


        • HAH A .. From this day forth … you shall be known as “Top Gun” .. lol
          all the best
          gb 🙂

          George B 25/04/19 1:55 PM Reply


          • Very honoured…thanks….Azteca just unlucky to reverse the form with Iva Go and good result for pedigree system with Baileys Bloom winning….Ruby Wonder…a horse I did not mention was also from a good pedigree but not as good as the winner so vindication for the way I am looking at these kind of races..hopefully bodes well for future analysis.

            silver 25/04/19 2:26 PM Reply


            • wd silver/tg …….. i had baileys and ruby in tipping comp entrants .. so well pleased 🙂 …. so far 🙂

              George B 25/04/19 2:28 PM Reply


              • great stuff..happy for you and the result…I backed Baileys myself so obviously happy with the win…. cheers

                silver 25/04/19 2:35 PM Reply


    • Hope you backed it Silver. Great price for a Fahey 2yo at this time of year.
      Hugh

      alpha2 25/04/19 7:43 PM Reply


  • 4.55 Beverly Stringybrook Creek 8/1

    My first foray into the mystical world of flat racing using my simplistic and flawed approach:
    Trainer has good profit at track
    Trainer in good form 3/10 last 14 days
    Horse is 2/3 here
    Jockey 1/2 here
    Jockey 2/5 last 14 days

    gearoid180468 25/04/19 12:21 PM Reply


    • Surely its impossible to win using such sparse stats, I suggest a book on quantum mechanics from Amazon. Maybe the unseasonable weather is getting to you but I’ll have a tenner on ( sweating chub smiley)
      PS: I was up to see Yeatsy the other day, he’s got a new headstone !! “cast a cold eye on life” still rings so true.

      chubnut 25/04/19 1:18 PM Reply


      • But I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have spread my dreams under your feet; Tread softly because you tread on my dreams.

        gearoid180468 25/04/19 2:25 PM Reply


        • I have a friend who has a stall on Moore Street.We call him Diesel Fitter.Anytime a man passes by he produces a pair of ladies drawers and shouts diesel fitter diesel fitter

          gearoid180468 25/04/19 2:36 PM Reply


          • 🙂

            George B 25/04/19 3:10 PM Reply


        • We’ll have to get you voted in for culture minister

          chubnut 25/04/19 3:09 PM Reply


    • Sound reasoning Gearoid, if it wasn’t for the fav it would be a strong bet. Am going with you EW, hoping the fav blows out. 🙂

      Best of luck.

      Mark Curtis 25/04/19 1:23 PM Reply


      • He’s likely to! Well… Ruth Carr is only 7/86 with LTO winners in last 2 years, 57% below market expectation- so, if there’s a trainer’s LTO winners to take on, those from her yard would appear to be it – albeit he did win oh so easily, you’d have thought he’d go close, but up in ratings and up in class, to give Gerry and any followers some hope! GL

        Josh 25/04/19 1:32 PM Reply


    • all i can say to give you added confidence Gearoid , it’s not on any of my lists .. … so should be therefore marked up as good bet imho 😉 .. although i do normally have a bit of shrapnel on any horses with the name “creek” in them 😉 ( sounds a bit like my second name if you say it fast enough) .. i hope your horse is fast enough today
      gl / gb : )

      George B 25/04/19 1:58 PM Reply


  • finally recovered enough to take a proper look at today’s cards, first time out since January and had far to much forgot i was a lightweight these days.
    Warwick 3-10. Robinshill 25-1 sky 4 places, down in class and upped in trip well handicapped these days after a year in the doldrums if he’s ever going to win again today could be the day. 1/2 pt ew
    Perth 3-30. Bigmartre 4-1 , back in a C2 and on good ground as long as the rain stays away should have every chance 1pt win
    Beverly 2-50. Musharrif 4-1, good run at Pontefract lto after a break should have set him up for this , c+d winner 1pt win

    Martin Whittle 25/04/19 12:33 PM Reply


    • staked 3 pts, rteturns 5 pts, up 2 pts.

      Martin Whittle 25/04/19 3:53 PM Reply


  • 6.00 Chelms The favs 42% and Hero Hero boasts the best mph over the distance but this race is tricky with good trainer contesting ….pedigrees of runners equally impressive so because of the lack of each way options no betting race for me…will not be surprised if Hero Hero demolishes the opposition but price restrictive given the quality of the pedigrees on offer….watching brief no bet…gd luck if playing.

    silver 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


  • Selections up on TC page.

    Tim Hanson 25/04/19 1:20 PM Reply


  • STATS/TRENDS… Sandown bet365 chase on Sat…

    https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Sandown-bet365-chase.pdf

    Josh

    Josh 25/04/19 1:35 PM Reply


  • Well, disappointing from analysis point of view in the 5.25 bev …would have been nice to finish with a winner but came out on top during the day thanks to Baileys and Azteca placing so no complaints….back tomorrow with a look at Donc 2.50 and 3.00 and 4.35 Sandown. Night.

    silver 11/08/19 2:40 PM Reply


    • over n out 🙂

      George B 11/08/19 7:52 PM Reply


  • 5.25 Bev…Nasty little race with no e/w value with favs 0/2 and 2nd favs … the bottom weight, Osmosis, is interesting …has an excellent pedigree….jockey Ben Curtis 12-39 43% and trainer Jason Ward 3-7 43% …best combo and the difficulty is assessing the mph factor over a longer distance than any have run is always a problem…speed horses like Oasis Prince and Kingson are difficult to get a handle on as they may not be able to stay as well as slower run horses over a longer distance with Osmosis having run over a longer distance than Kingson and Oasis Prince and in a race that was a lot higher in value..Osmosis ran a respectable mph over 8f and at the prices prefer this horse, which has an excellent pedigree comparable with the other two horses…of the other two Kingson was 11 lengths behind Cap Francais and not sure if the horse is able to have enough pace over the 8.5 furlongs…Fahey’s other runner International Guy should not be discounted but the sire stats on the going 3/93 and at the distance 1/24 uninspiring , so by a process of elimination Osmosis has to be the win only bet at the prices…I will be backing this myself but that is said to be transparent that I will be having a financial interest…it is entirely up to you if you decide to play and what to back…all the best whatever you back.

    silver 25/04/19 3:25 PM Reply


    • 2nd favs 1/3

      silver 25/04/19 3:26 PM Reply


    • hi stg :
      17.25 my system has thrown up :
      al suil eile / international guy / kingson ??
      gl 🙂

      George B 25/04/19 3:35 PM Reply


      • Al Suil Eile a non runner and of the remaining two Kingson is preferred but will be backing the bigger priced Osmosis as international guy ran in C6 worth 3k whereas Osmosis ran in 10k race….so I think the race is between Kingson and Osmosis…the latter trainer and form stats and price swayed me but would not be surprised if Kingson won. hope that clarifies the judgement cll I have made…gd luck if you decide on something else..all the best Top Gun Lol!!!

        silver 25/04/19 3:45 PM Reply


        • Cheers Top Gun Silver and Cap Gun G, following you both 🙂 G, SBC Update at end.of other thread.

          Mark Curtis 25/04/19 4:01 PM Reply


  • 6.00 Chelms The favs 42% and Hero Hero boasts the best mph over the distance but this race is tricky with good trainer contesting ….pedigrees of runners equally impressive so because of the lack of each way options no betting race for me…will not be surprised if Hero Hero demolishes the opposition but price restrictive given the quality of the pedigrees on offer….watching brief no bet…gd luck if playing.

    silver 25/04/19 5:16 PM Reply


  • Well, disappointing from analysis point of view in the 5.25 bev …would have been nice to finish with a winner but came out on top during the day thanks to Baileys and Azteca placing so no complaints….back tomorrow with a look at Donc 2.50 and 3.00 and 4.35 Sandown. Night.

    silver 25/04/19 5:45 PM Reply


    • over n out 🙂

      George B 25/04/19 5:46 PM Reply


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