Members Daily Post: 24/04/19 (complete)

Tipsx2, Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Fontwell

3.10 – Tikkinthebox   (all Hc’s) 14,30 H3 I3 G3 2/1 S4 

 

Perth

2.25 – Grageelagh Girl   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 9/2 S3A UP

3.30 –

Special Prep   (all Hc’s)  w1 H1 I1 4/1  UP

More Bucks   (all Hc’s) 15/2 

Swingbridge   (HcCh) I3 13/2 

5.10 –

Curious Carlos   (all Hc’s) 14 7/2 

Our Kylie   (all Hc’s)  ES+ 10/1 S2 S3A 

 

Southwell

4.45 – Cruising Bye   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 I3 G1 6/1 S3A# S4  UP

6.20 –

Dan Emmett   (micro dist) 16/1 S2A

The Drone   (all Hc’s) I3 G3 5/1 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

7.20 –

Indian Native   (all Hc’s) 22/1 S2A 

Timely gift   (HcH) 14/1 S2 

 

Taunton

7.00 – Cushuish   (all Hc’s, m class) H3 15/2 

 

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FLAT

Epsom

3.55 – What About Carlo   (all Hc’s) 25/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 7/50, 14p +5.6)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

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Daily Tips

3.30 Perth – Red Giant – 1 point win – 10/1 (bet365/BV/888) 9/1 (gen)  WON 10/1 

4.45 South – Silent Steps – 1 point win – 8/1 (bet365/SkyB/BetS/PP) 15/2 (others)  UP 5/2 (20p R4) 

that’s all for today, 08.38, write ups on the way…

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3.30 Perth – Red Giant – 

I thought he was worth chancing here at 10s as before he returned after his break at Aintree, his form looked very progressive and some of the best in this line up. The concern is that PU at Aintree, in clearly a much stronger race than this. He wasn’t fancied to run a race and ‘his’ jockey wasn’t on – he was up there for a short while but seemed to find the experience all a bit too much. He jumped to his right a few times, once markedly so, and appeared to down tools a bit after that. The fact he returns 18 days here suggests there wasn’t a problem and it was an off day. The trainer won this race two years back with Beeves which makes me think it may have been a plan, albeit they’d have wanted a better effort LTO. However these are much calmer waters. Looking back at his form…well the visor transformed him and his Kelso and Catterick runs when last seen are what interest me… At Kelso he was defeated by the unexposed Dandy Dan, who won his next start, and came second in a handicap chase at the Ayr Scottish National meeting. At Catterick he chased home Cloth Cap – he’d go on to run a cracker in The Scottish Grand National, staying on again at the line. Red Giant wasn’t stopping come the line in that race and I think it’s one of the best pieces of recent form (last 3 runs) in this race. I also think he’s well handicapped still, and could be open to improvement over fences – chasing home Cloth Cap may suggest as much, but he also would have won The Durham National off this mark, had his jockey not made an error, missing out a fence he shouldn’t have.  When on song he tracks the pace, jumps well, responds to pressure and keeps galloping. If he’s there 2 from home, close to the pace or having hit the front, I think he’ll win. He looks the strongest stayer in this, in these conditions. (the Richards horse stays all day but is a bit of a slow boat i think). Red Giant dotted up at Market Rasen over 3m so this track/trip shouldn’t be a problem as they are similar enough – well MR is probably a tad tighter. It could be he downs tools early or just isn’t in form as yet, and he’ll have another day to shine in the next month or two. But at 10s I was happy to roll the dice, especially as he comes here fresher than most.  If he’s sent off at 1os+ however, I think i’ll know my fate sadly. 

I thought the others in here looked about the right price and at the odds I didn’t want to be with anything else – there are no Cloth Caps or Dandy Dan’s in here, with their sorts of profiles. 

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4.45 South – Silent Steps 

I thought this mare was worth a go at 8s / 15/2, returning to the CD of her course win in December where she hacked up on the bridle, off the same mark. I’ve no doubt she’s here to run her race, and that win was after a quick turnaround, 7 days from her last run. She arrives in form to my eyes, having watched the last two runs back, as well as her Wetherby chase 3rd and the win here. She isn’t a hurdler, and very much looks a chaser, so those two recent runs can be marked up. The Hereford run was good, only beaten 4.5L , staying on at the end. She was 2L behind her stablemate Little Millie there, who then won her next two, her last off 111. The run LTO at Stratford was over 3m3f, which i’m not sure she stays, but she was up there for a time, and was thereabouts turning for home, before plugging on. She should enjoy this return to fences and she’s still lightly raced in handicap chases, especially compared to a few of these, and her stablemate. The jockey booking is a niggle, but what with Bryony out injured and plenty of names up at Perth, I won’t over-think it at the prices. Given Little Windmill hasn’t won above OR 105, i’d like to think Jack Andrews is on him to take the weight down. In any case he’s open to attack from anything with more in hand, but if he repeated his last run that may be good enough. 

The others look worth taking on – Danboru…well he’s now 0/7 over fences, he fell LTO when just headed before the last, the trainer is 1/42 in the last 30, and 0/22,1p in the last 14 days, and the young jockey has yet to win over fences, from 8 rides to date – at 3/1 he has to be taken on given all that I think and if he wins then so be it. I can’t have Mount Royale, Master Vintage and Loch Linnhe for various reasons, albeit the latter named gets 1st blinkers which may work the oracle, albeit with stamina still to prove. He doesn’t look overpriced though. 

That leaves Cruising Bye who qualifies for S3A# so I wouldn’t begrudge him winning esp if I’ve got Silent Steps wrong – but tipping wise- he is 13 now, and he’s yet to win after a break. The yard are going well and they can obviously get them fit. This is a weak enough race and he’s no forlorn hope. I am trying never to tip a chaser again aged older than 10, we shall see how that goes! It could be significant that Sean is here rather than up at Perth on More Bucks, we shall see. He didn’t look overpriced at 6s given his age/break, but he may take this as it’s a weak enough race and he must still be showing something at home. 

The selection should race prominently enough. Little Windmill also likes to get on with it so it will be interested what instructions they have. Loch Linnhe can be up there also. But, if she can sit handy and pop away – she jumped very well when winning here, but many do under BF – she should be competing over the final couple of fences. I’ll pay at 8s to find out. 

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3.Micro System Test Zone

A Dunn (25/1< guide) 

7.30 T – Broke Away 

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide) 

3.00 P – Coolanly 

Irish Raiders (16/1< guide) 

2.25 P – Smiling Eliza 

3.30 P –  Swingbridge 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

LTO winning trainers

6.20 S – Point N Shoot (12/1< guide) 

Jockeys/chasers

4.45 S – Cruising Bye 

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Handicap Chase System 2018 (10/1< best) 

1.30 F- Polo The Mumm 

5.20 S – Johnny Yuma 

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Losing Festival Tips 2019 

3.00 P – Coolanly 

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Adam Norman’s Little Black Book 

7.20 S – Just Call Me Al (long term, guide)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Saturday…  looking ahead to the weekend, it looks like the Bet365 Handicap Chase will be the only stats/trends race i’ll cover. None of the C2 flat handicaps from Haydock have a long history and none from Sandown on Friday are of interest. 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

45 Responses

  1. These will be my (BRACKET FLAT) picks, not doing well or bad at the moment, so, we shall see.
    IVANOVITCH finally netting me my win, knew he could deliver, like i said, think he may bounce out again next week, we shall see..doubt he`ll be as long priced as that again.

    write ups in morning.
    15:20 Epsom
    (EDDYSTONE ROCK 8/1 ladbrokes 1pt win)
    (EMENEM 9/1 gen 1pt win)
    15:55 Epsom
    (DESERT WIND 17/2 365 1pt win)
    (AL JELLABY 12/1 gen 1pt win)

    1. EDDYSTONE ROCK
      Extra furlong here will not phase him and with Mr Doyle in the plate should be able to defy a penalty and win this easy, he is a bit patchy with his form, but, that is built into the price.
      EMENEM
      Handicapper has finally relented on this one and i believe he should be up with the pace and that low weight will come into play towards the finish especially when Emenem knows the course, whether he can get past ER is a question that needs answering and that is also built into the price!
      DESERT WIND
      Coming here in form from the AW, finished placed in some bigger hcps at Newmarket and Ascot last year, so, if reproducing that form with a low weight and ran at 1m 3f lto, this is a furlong shorter, so, if on song should obliterate these! Jockey gets on with the horse also and that is a big plus.
      AL JELLABY
      Another who is running well at the moment, also down the bottom of the hcp and with lady of the moment Hollie Doyle on its back, should go well and if this one slips the field, may be hard to peg back, speed/pace horse that could maybe run away with this! Price is above what i had it at, would have put this one in at 8`s, 12`s is over the odds!

      As always hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    2. Well, that went well…..back to the drawing board me thinks, the flat racing season, always bemuses me!

  2. Wednesday Tips – Epsom.

    2.10 Midnight Malibu, drifting at present and 10/1 available, 1.5 points each way. A course and distance winner who has been running and winning in the all weather’
    2.45 Cape Of Good Hope, 7/4 at present for 3 points win. Has run in class one previously, including third in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket. The horse now steps up in distance which may well suit. There is the issue of the trainer not always having them ready first time out to contend with but I am hoping he will outclass the rest of them.
    3.55 Desert Wind, 8/1 now, 1 point each way. I have come to the same conclusion as Stewart for this race. I will leave it to him to do a better write up but another who has been running on the all weather and then had a break. However the horse has had a recent run on turf and is a distance winner.

    Good luck.

    1. PS One for Saturday – Bet365 Gold Cup, Adrien Du Pont, 20/1 available, 1 point each way. I know that this one is a bit of a cliff horse but could be finding its form and be suited by this race and its end of season potential for an upset.

  3. today’s selections.
    Southwell 7-20. Indian Native 25-1 sky 4 places, mistake ridden performances last two runs hopefully cheekpieces can do the trick, Midnight Aurora’s big improvement was when upped in trip so the drop back might be a negative.
    Taunton 7-30. Moayadd 12-1 sky 4 places, not disgraced lto 7/12 in a very hot c5 this looks a lot easier and still open to improvement.
    both 1/2 pt ew
    not a selection but West Coast Lass 22-1 looks interesting back up in trip and might be worth a small ew.

  4. Epsom through the card just for fun.
    2-10. Boom The Groom 6-1/Bahamian Sunrise 6-1
    2-45. Mackaar 8-1
    3-20. Fire Fighting 12-1 ew
    3-55. Al Jellaby 14-1 ew
    4-25. as Josh would say time to have a drink in the bar.
    5-00. Bay Of Naples 10-1 ew

  5. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 3.30 – Valadom on 1st run @ 13/2
    S 6.20 – Riddlestown on 4th run @ 5
    T 7.00 – Midnight Gem on 6th run @ 14E 2.10 – Dark Shot on 1st and 4th run @ 9/2
    E 3.55 – Lucius Tiberius on 3rd run @ 11
    ………..Aquarium on 6th run @ 10
    Festival/BRT
    F 2.35 – Lord Condi on 1st run @ 11
    P 3.00 – Coolanly on 1st and 2nd run @ 3
    GL

  6. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.55 Epsom Mountain Angel BOG 4/1
    4.05 Perth Allduckornodinner BOG 8/1
    4.05 Perth Load Up Time BOG 6/1
    7.20 Southwell Polarbrook BOG 20/1
    Two winners yesterday put in the black for the month.
    NEW METHOD
    3.30 Perth Valadom BOG 11/2
    3.55 Epsom Aquarium BOG 10/1
    7.20 Southwell Midnight Aurora BOG 3/1
    Was not intending to put up 1F, 1P ,1U etc but in the 3.10 Fontwell Rendezvous Peak is a qualifier, all its chase winning been on the point to point circuit over much further distance so this one i will not back, the other qualifier is 3.30 Perth Walt BOG 7/2 which i will back.
    Colin

    1. Hi Colin,

      What’s that chase method?

      Handicap Chases / won penultimate start / PU or Fell or UR LTO ?

      I assume there’s more to it than that, as I wouldn’t touch those systematically given the results i’m staring at
      Josh

      1. Josh interesting hoping that you would have a look on your machine for it was over 15 years ago when i last looked and it was ALL CHASES Novice included, put it up on 22nd post and put a warning ref time scale but it is an old method which had success years ago, have started recording them as of 1st April so shall see how they go.
        Colin.

        1. Hmmm, i’m not sure i’d bother wasting your time with it in truth – recording wise. It may be a useful ‘starting point’ on a horse by horse basis but i’m not sure your/our subjective judgement would be correct enough to make a difference to the bottom line…

          so, all chases / won penultimate start / PU Fell or UR LTO…

          Since start of 2016 > (so 3 full years, + 2019)

          1043 bets / 120 wins / 281 places (inc wins) / 11.5% win SR / -373 SP / -42 BFSP / AE 0.78 …22% below market expectations

          Just those sent off 8/1< , as a comparison, from within those stats above... 543 bets / 106 wins / 205 p / 19.5% win SR (so maybe a better 'starting point') / -100 SP / -57 BFSP / AE 0.87 - 13% below market expectations. My software goes back to 2003, so 15 years ago, and the stats... win % etc, losses, have been consistent in that time period, with only one winning year to SP. I can't see the point in recording them systematically, there's no logical reason why those results on the last few years will be improved I wouldn't have thought. I'm not sure how anyone develops methods without HorseRaceBase , or similar system building software or Informs new system building tool etc ?? Anyway, I wouldn't want you to waste your time on something, that method would need some more work I feel to make it worthwhile bothering with. Unless you focus on those around 8s<, for further inspection. Josh

          1. Thanks for that Josh it is now in the bin, had no intention of looking up old methods till a little housebound before the op, Elite is going well from Oct to end of Mar, 3 winning months from 6, profit + 45.21, April is in profit + 5.708 total so far + 51.129, not bad for a simple method which takes max 10 mins to find the bets, do use the computer the night before to find them for it is quicker than the paper, and this method goes back 30 plus years, and it appears to still be working.
            Never embraced technology for my first company computer added 10 hours to my working week which received no extra pay, put your orders on when you get home after a 10/12 hour day, and of course they were slow back then.
            Colin.

  7. Two races of interest and both at Epsom:
    2.45. Very competitive good quality race with 8 runners at the moment.Also very difficult to analyse. The fastest horses running above 37 mph are: Cape of Good Hope, Arthur Kitt, Turgenev, Cap Francais and Massam…the latter ran this in a C3 race and may get the 3rd spot and at 40/1 @ 5th odds is 8/1 to place which I think is value but it is up to you to decide. The winner should come from the other 4 mentioned and it is difficult to split them. Varian (45% +£14.15) and Gosden (28% – £2.04) have the best 3 yo stats and Frankie (33% + £2.71) and Franny (26% + £8.75) …Have already mentioned Norton’s mount Massam and cannot fault the pedigree…Varian horse Mackaar has run 36.35 mph and 36.39 mph winning both of the C5 races it has run in so with Varian’s record cannot see why the horse is 11/1. It has a good pedigree…not as good as some of the other horses mentioned so do not see why it cannot be competitive….Andrea Atzeni is no slouch but his stats are 3/26 on 3 yo and to step up from a C5 to C1 listed race may some of the reasons why the horse is that price..of the others, largely a coin toss but my preference is for Frankies mount Turgenev…he ran in a very good time at Doncaster in a G1…clocking 37.85 mph….this is closely matched by Cap Francais in a couurse adjusted time of 37.95 mph…Cape of Good Hope has clocked 37.79 mph and Arthur Kitt (3 lengths behind Hope LTO) 37.59 mph and all have pedigrees to die for. Finally, Samseem, currently 8/1 ran in a C4 at Redcar in a very respectable speed of 36.24 mph but think the class of the other horses will be too much for this to figure…Just watch the horse bolt up!!!! so good luck with whatever you decide to punt….back later for the 4.25.

    1. Thanks for this Silver, you have backed up my decision to follow GB in on Turgenev; moreover Massam is a qualified on my Trainer/jockey strikerate way in, 50% win/50% place at track over five years. Good luck today.

      1. HI MARK C … MR G B HERE …. oops bally caps again ……… yep put my tipping competition menu entrants up early this morning. It will probably in tears for me again but i like turgenev a lot (its a good time of year for messr. dettori and gosedn to make hay) ?? glad you like massam as well as i have that in da f/c 🙂 ……
        i also like Maybe Today 3.20 epsom ….. trainer / jockey /handicaps profitable time of the year 😉
        i have some crazy first time headgearers for dundalk tonight …… but i am not sure about backing them .. see how my lady luck is this sarvers 😉
        lets hope don’t have another wash out day ? 🙁
        be careful out dare .

        gb 🙂

        1. Hi G, yes I like Maybe Today too 🙂

          Also watching the betting for What About Carlos in the 15.55 and Gin Palace in the last, TJ 50% win/62% place last five years at Epsom.

          My fate is inextricably linked to yours today Mon ami! Gulp 🙂 🙂

          1. Oh dear .. were doomed captain ………….. turgenev just blew out for me and some others i expect …….. just got outclassed or frankie didn’t realise mr talkative was about pass him .. lol 🙁 .. onto the next race ..that’s what i say ……. i am following you to as well .. so we is probably going around in circles !! 🙂 heyho 😉
            gb 🙁

          2. Mon Dieu G! It’s carnage out there! Good job there’s Chelmers tomorrow 🙂

          3. I am getting most of them back on my 4tbp 🙂 … just need the winners to come back …they’d bettter !! 🙁

          4. I’ve just had the first Four home in the 3.55!Sacre Bleu !The Winner backed to win others EW, no forecast 🙁 But thanks for your two tips G, saving the day!

            We must back Gin Palace in the last as Tim has tipped it too.

          5. It might be the best place for us laetr ! 🙂 .. well done on your win and prudent e/w’s …. your good at this aren’t you !! 😉

          6. Definitely going round in circles and we may all be doomed but go out with a bang and not a whimper…tomorrow may be better and should have backed Josh’s tip…just one of those days!

    2. An interesting drift on Cape Of Good Hope for this race, from 7/4 to 3/1. I would have though AOB is testing this one over this distance to see if it is worth a go at the Derby meeting? Cap Francais seems to be the one for money but it needs to step up on form.
      Turgenev should go well as his trainer has history in this race. His last run was a bit iffy in my book but may be he was just having a trot out???

      We shall see.

      1. Yep can see why…I think it was a prep run for this race which is worth over double the last race contested…Turgenev also ran and actually won the Nmkt race 6th Oct. in which he was eased so the time of that race was slow…..did not include the last run in my calculations as concluded it was a prep run for this one. Hope that is useful as this is just my opinion. Gd lck

      2. Just checked the betting to the early hours and Ladbrokes were on par with the other bookmakers, used to be when Ladbrokes were shortest time to get your money on, for ITV or C4 presenters used to say Mike Dillon had a direct line to the stable.

  8. 4.25 Epsom….Tricky race and with only six runners not a betting medium so best watched…the fav may well bolt up but not enough confidence in any of them to draw conclusions about making a selection…I ‘d be interested to see how Turntable and Fancy Dress run…particularly the latter given it’s debut run at Nottingham and the horses pedigree….but one to watch rather than punt. Gd lck

  9. Colin, sorry to be thick but what does “Was not intending to put up 1F, 1P ,1U ” mean? thanks in anticipation.

    1. (discussion below that comment Gordon, I enquired as to the rules etc… all chases / horse won two starts back/ horse PU/UR/Fell on it’s last start… my research would suggest it’s not worth bothering with as a system, but it’s all above to look at as see fit)

    2. Gordon, having quite a bit of time at home prior to an op started looking at a few old methods of mine, Elite is one and put the results up on the discussion.
      1F,1P was another for which started backing in the mid eighties but with Joshs magic machine proved that it is not working now so it is in the bin.
      Cheers
      Colin

  10. in 2.10 at Epsom Dark Shot’s mark dropped quite a bit and cheekpeices back on today, anyone had a look at this race???

    1. hmm, that horse will be the death of me haha – flat wise! When dabbling in sprints last summer I must have put him up a few times – his mark has looked good for a while now! He is going to hose in at some point, no doubt about that – you’re guessing as to fitness a tad – but he went very close on first run last season, at York, in a better race than this. I don’t think the headgear is a positive, they’re clearly trying to spark him back into life, but maybe they will work this time. From his draw near the rail Theo L may be aggressive, as he often tries to be. I wouldn’t fall off my seat if he blitzed them- he has run a few times as if he wants 6f now, and this sharp/speedy 5 , on first run of season, may happen too quick. I didn’t think 9/2 was overly big – but i only had a flick at race/and him, because of the 2/3 times I put him up last year!

      Simply on the pace maps/fitness/course form, I thought Just That Lord may try and make all. Whether he stays there i’m not sure, and didn’t think 11/2 overly big to find out, as does look competitive enough, but if I had some spare change (i’ve run out!! :)) , he’d be my token gesture.

        1. haha, i’ll take my 10/1 3 mile chase winner with another live one to come! But yea that went well enough for some brief thoughts / a 2 minute look. Most on mental recall in truth, think i fancied winner in last year’s dash also, when he ran a cracker.

  11. Another quiet day for me. Still getting a lot of qualifiers for soft ground jumps races, but given the current conditions I can’t put them up although this might change soon if the weather forecasts are accurate. So still putting them ALL up as I intended, it’s just that the circumstances at the moment aren’t providing many selections.

    Up now on TC page.

  12. I’ve bet Bahamian sunrise @ 9s. Most of these Jocks have had zero and one run on this track and the advise they’ll be given or take from watching will be ping the gate and go hell for leather. SDS knows the pace here inside out which gives a maybe regressive hoss like Bahamian a couple of useful pounds in the hod.

    1. yep i am banking on 1 of the “cd” runners to know their way home best …… it’s not just the jockeys that need to know their way round here you know ! 😉
      gb 😉

  13. RE 2.45..Frankie only third when I though he was going to win…sure to have been carnage on the exchanges but all credit to Cape of good Hope….quality horse…Not only backed the wrong horse but cannot count either..only 7 runners NOT 8 as stated…also impressed with the 2nd horse coming late and fast…good competitive race as stated just hope some of you had the winner. Back tomorrow.

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