Members Daily Post: 23/04/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ludlow

2.25 – Baby King   (HcCh) H1 I3 5/6  WON

2.55 –

Master Dancer   (micro dist) 3/1 

Ruacana   (m dist)  18/1 S2A UP

3.25 –

Electron Bleu   (m dist) 10/1 S2 UP

Jaunty Flyer   (m dist) H3 7/2 

Hey Bill   (m TJC) I3 13/2 

 

Sedgefield

1.40 –

Mille The Minx   (all Hc’s)  ES+ H3 11/2 S3A UP

Toboggans Fire   (m’s class and +dist) 8/1 

3.15 – Middlebrow   (m +dist)  w2 9/2 

 

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FLAT 

Yarmouth 

1.30 – Conqueress (4yo+) 14 12/1 

3.05 – 

Nonios (all hncps 5 yrs) ES+  H1 I3 7/1 S3A# S6  2nd 8/1 

Hamul (all hncps) I1 15/8 UP

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 6/48, 13p -3.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

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NO tips today. 

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Paddy Brennan (14/1 guide) 

2.25 Lud – Baby King 

D McCain (14/1< guide) 

1.40 Sedge – Toboggans Fire 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

3.15 Sedge – Sporting Press 

Henry Brooke (25/1< guide) 

2.15 Sedge – Two Hoots

3.15 Sedge – Fair Loch 

 

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Handicap Chase System Starting Points (10/1< best) 

2.15 Sedge – Two Hoots

3.15 Sedge – Sporting Press

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Festival 2019 Losing Tips

4.40 Fairy – Countister / Mr Adjudicator 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

    1. Well done yesterday fella! Wasn`t going to bother today and then saw everyone tipping in the 4:40. In for a penny.

  1. no selections today.
    have had a little go at the RYBO handicap at fairyhouse 4-40 my 3 are
    Jezki 12-1
    Forge Meadow 22-1
    Avenir D’Une Vie 28-1

  2. 16:40 Fairyhouse
    IVANOVITCH GORBATOV 1pt win 17/2 gen
    Well everyone knows about me and the love affair with this fella, he has an abundance of speed/ pace will possibly cruise into the race, but, as i have stated before he maybe will not find a great deal once hitting the front, hence the other 2 selections, if he`s on song though!!! 17/2 is a value price.
    FORGE MEADOW 1pt win 22/1 gen
    Mrs Harrington like i said is starting to get her string ready for the festival and this one is entered there, but, as proven with a couple of hers at Fairyhouse, they are in good order and puppy has picked this one over Jezki a tip in itself? 22/1 is a massive price for one who will relish all the conditions.
    ASK SUSAN 1pt win 12/1
    Mr Mullins horses are also ahead of themselves atm, they also are being aimed at the festival next week, but, this is a good test and prize also, 12/1 is short enough, but he is the man of the moment and the horse also will like conditions etc. just value at 12/1.

    As usual hope all horses come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today!

    1. I Agree with the Mullins horses atm.
      I was gonna put ruby’s mount up. Price doesn’t bother me a winner is a winner but I feel you get the best out of ruby when he is upfront and I didn’t think that style suited the horse today. ( He will now make me look stupid and make all.)

    2. Well done Stewart – Brilliant win with Ivanovitch Gorbatov. Got it at 15.7 on Betfair! One of those ‘wish i had put more on it’ calls. 🙂

    3. Makes up for the dross day yesterday, don`t be surprised if he double bounces at Punchestown next week now, won`t be that price though…what a drift to 11/1 and 15`s on bfr also, blimey!!

    4. Makes up for the dross day yesterday, don`t be surprised if he double bounces at Punchestown next week now, won`t be that price though…what a drift to 11/1 and 15`s on bfr also, blimey!!

  3. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    L 1.50 – Last Chance Paddy on 3rd run @ 25
    L 3.55 – Boutan on 2nd run @ 16
    S 3.45 – Jack Lamb on 1st run @ 7/4
    Festival
    F 4.40 – Mr Adjudicator on 1st run @ 4
    …………Countister on 1st run @ 9/2
    3m+
    L 3.25 – Vendredi Trois on 5th run @ 4
    F 3.10 – Slowmotion on 8th run @ 4
    GL

  4. COLINS BETS
    No bet
    ELITE BETS
    3.05 Yarmouth Hamlul BOG 7/4
    5.40 Wolverhampton Olaudah BOG 11/2
    6.25 Lingfield Alnasherat BOG 6/4
    NEW METHOD
    2.35 Yarmouth Agent Basterfield BOG 9/4
    3.25 Ludlow Master Burbidge BOG 7/2
    Colin

  5. SBC alert

    G, are you compooting today? I like a couple at Lingfield and a few at Wolvers. I’ll hold fire on posting if you are gonna burp out a list.

    Best regards

    1. What a bloomin day mc … had to do a 90 mile round trip to basingstoke just to do a blood test …grrrr roadworks ..grrrrr !! and then pesky work gone mad .. no looky today ………. all i can say on the cherries is that it has a great draw !!! 😉 i may pick some cherries as well then 🙂 ..shattered laterz 🙂 hope u winning young man !!
      gb 🙂

      1. Had luck G, I feel your pain 🙁

        Just one winner, glad I didn’t post today! No good without wingman G 🙂

        Perhaps we can attack Southwell when we are done with Cherries!

  6. Poor days racing so little to enthuse over…a couple of races at Yarmouth piqued my interest though not sure if they present betting opportunities as too many unknown factors…Pedigree wise all are in with a shout, even Luna Wish….Mark Johnston and Archie Watson are the two trainers to note which puts Companion and Endless Joy (no irony intended) in the frame…favs are 48% representing a price of odds against or evens so at 8/13 represents no value….2nd favs are 26% so around 11/4 or more represents value so at 9/2 (representing an 18% chance of winning), is very good value especially given the horses pedigree, trainer and Jockey….Oisin is 5 from 11= 45% and Tudhope 1/1…..Suroor 1 from 6… Allez Sophia is an interesting runner for the Houghton yard as has an equally good pedigree…trainer is 3/8 with 3 years olds so may be one to watch for the future here…that leaves Kelinda Dice.. according to my interpretation of the pedigree line for this horse it is superior to all the others…unfortunately the trainer is 0/8 with two year olds…the jockey is 1/3 so ok…but at the price of 40/1 may well out run its odds…just a pity there are only 7 runners …no surprises, really…happens too often to be a a coincidence and don’t care what anyone says about that. So, what should the selection be??….. if that is not too contentious a question!! Well according to my direct hotline to the betting gods…Allez Sophia has the best sire stats at the distance and on the declared going (if that description is accurate) but as you have probably gathered it is anyone’s guess…after all, it is a game of opinions and all are equally valid so good luck with any opinion you hold and whatever you select…as they say it is all good. Prob be back later looking at the 3.35 Yarmouth and perhaps the 7.40 Wolver and the 8.10 at the same venue..Happy punting all.

      1. 7.40…Wolvs As promised ..Interesting race…will start with MC’s query Cherries At Dawn….Not sure the horse will get the better of Samstar in the rematch as the latter was running on strongly despite of the fact Samstar was beaten 54 lengths next time in class higher race and on soft ground Cherries ran 36.16 mph when they met and for comparison Suakin ran, with couse adjustment, 36.25 mph and is a worthy fav with a very good pedigree…Cherries has a good distance sire along with Samstar, Dubawi Meeznah and Goscote…on the tapeta surface Dubawi Meeznah and Goscote have the best sire stats…If you are asking me, and it is only my opinion, I think Cherries will do well to get third place but please do NOT let me put you off betting the horse..this is only my opinion after all and I could be well off target here.. borderline to place would be my conclusion…Think the fav will win (favs 50%) but cannot back the horse at the price, being a shades on….Local Affair, the un-raced newcomer with trainer and jockey having a good record would not be a surprise winner with Samstar, Cherries, and Goscote fighting it out for third place…both Suakin and Goscote have the Dam Somethingroyal in their pedigrees which I think is a plus but do prefer three year olds in these kind of races in addition to lower weights…hope this helps …Good luck with whatever you decide.

        1. Cheers Silver, fascinating stuff. I came to the conclusion through different means that Cherries could squeak a place, so have backed it anyway. Good work, thanks. 🙂

        2. Horses certainly make fools of you…I mentioned 3 year olds being favoured and mentioned all of them except the winner…did not think the Botti horse would stay but what do I know ????? Lol!!!

  7. Yarmouth 3.35…another difficult race to decipher but that is why this interests me……of those that have raced, King of Comedy not only has an excellent…and I mean excellent pedigree but has good speed figures, according to my own way of calculating this and improved run 2nd time out so what is not to like with Gosden and Frankie combo Gosden 45% and Frankie 50% with both profitable…well..nothing actually …Favs and 2nd favs have 40%, except the price 5/6…too short given the quality horses running both raced and unraced…so what is likely to provide a good challenge to the fav?…Cool exhibit poss?…. ran slightly slower than King of Comedy but open to improvement and as 2nd fav has a rally good chance of turning the fav over. Of the sires that have good stats over the distance, Raha, King of Comedy and Fujaira King have the best records…on the Going Dr. Jekyll, King of Comedy, Raha and Sendeed stand out…so can see why King of Comedy is fav, though given the stats would have expected the horse to be shorter.Knowing has had a run and has a respectable pedigree but do not think the horse has the speed to compete.
    The Simcock runner Dr.Jekyll is interesting for Simcock and Spencer, trainer 32% and Spencer 30% and the horse has a cracking pedigree so could well be the each way value…depending , of course, what your attitude is towards Spencer…he is a marmite choice..either you love him or hate him…I personally think he is top notch and have no problem backing him but it is down to personal choice. Raha @ 100/1 has an ok pedigree and I rthink the price represents the chances of the horseLand of Legends has a first class pedigree.Fujaira King was beaten 24 lengths on debut but does represent Varian who is 9/37 24% and Atzeni is a 10/36 28% for a small loss but the horse has an excellent pedigree. Sendeed has an ok pedigree and the sire acts on the going and is a Suroor horse that has to be respected, as does anything the trainer runs here but is 2-13 so will give him a miss along with Land of Legends…this horse has a first class pedigree and may well prove a surprise winner but prefer the each way value of Dr Jekyll. Of the outsiders..Mazmerize is an interesting runner for an “unsexy” stable of Christine Dunnett…she is 8% with 3y0 being 3-38 but has a profit of £.00 which indicates she can have big priced winners…the jockey is 9-36 at 25% plus £39 which tells me big priced winners are not excluded ….the horse itself was beaten 22 lengths on debut @ 125/1 and is 100/ today but has a good pedigree and may be better than the odds suggest…The majority of the horses mentioned have extremely impressive pedigrees and I may have not mentioned the winner but hopefully you have some useful information to make a more informed choice…good luck if playing.

      1. Dr J definitely the one to take out of that race. Travelled nicely and was barely asked a question – VERY educational ride!

        1. Pity it got done for a place!!! yep picked the wrong horse!! Not for the first time and will definitely not be the last….lol! do not underestimate Land of Legends as this horse has a superb pedigree, the best in the race and will improve…will probably be too short to back next time out.

  8. As promised the last race is 8.10 at Wolvers and is just as difficult ….not my favourite track I must admit as you can get some interesting results..but here goes. The fav has an excellent chance of winning but too short in a race that may throw up a couple at decent prices…Favs are 39% and second favs 28%..trainers are Gosden 34%, Varian 23%, Crisford, 23% and Cox 16% running 3 yo olds. Two jockeys are Lee and Mitchell so with that in mind Nearooz ran 36.36 mph and 2nd fav New Jazz ran 36.31 mph with Sadler’s Soul having run 36.36 mph so very close …all the others that have run were below this with the exception of Aigiarne running an adjusted time of 37.76 mph…the comparison is with Sadler’s Soul but it is difficult to make a direct accurate comparison regarding the differences in both course and distance so may be way off regarding the speed calculation but it is a Cox horse and 16% is a respectable strike rate. The other Cox horse, Sweet Poem, has a very good pedigree (as do a lot of the other runners) and Amelia glass claims 7 lbs and is 1 from 4 so she knows how to win round here….whether the horse is good enough remains to be seen but has the benefit of a run. With Crisford’s record Jaidaa has to have a chance and the pedigree is good. Fabulous view has an excellent pedigree but Ruth Carr 0 from 17 so that is off putting…I have a soft spot for Dark Angel’s progeny but do not think Seraphim is good enough and Jaidaa for Crisford just may need the run. Under the Storm was behind Hikayah which ran 35 mph and do not think either one is good enough. I don’ think Masai Spirit or Lady Mascara are fast enough either. Left with Neerooz, New Jazz, Sadler’s Soul, Jaidaa, and at a bigger price Sweet Poem so quite a puzzle. Good luck if you decide to play. and hope the information is helpful. All the best

    1. hi silver ,
      like so many others on here your investigational work is immense and mind blowing really …….. my elbow has only just caught up with my wotsit …so not really playing today/tonight . Although my computer screen is telling me in the 8.10 hikayah (trainer n draw good) e/w and sadlers soul e/w ( jockey and draw good)….but then again mentions for seraphim ( good draw) under the storm ( jockey form) and at the head of the market new jazz is well drawn 🙂
      well done silver and thanks for sharing 🙂 …. and yes very much is of use .. thanks 🙂
      gb v.p. of the nearly defunkt SBC .. 😉

          1. Thanks….about time eh?!!!! Sweet Poem was 101 ISP returning 80/1 so pleased with that…not sure what the price was on BSP but got the 1,2,3 so happy that the analysis was correct…helps the confidence levels.

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