Members Daily Post: 21/04/19 (complete)

Section 1 (complete) , test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Ffos Las

2.15 –

Get An Oscar   (micro TJC)  ES+ 14/1 S2 S3A

Mac Bella   (HcH) 25/1 S2A

3.15 – Alf N Dor   (m TJC)  ES+ H1 I3 G1 11/4 S3A# S4

3.45 –

Oxwich Bay   (HcH, m’s dist and +class)  ES+ G3 11/2 S3A S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Judge Earl   (m TJC)  ES+ 16/1 S2A 

4.20 – Henllan Harri   (m TJC)  ES+ G3 15/2 S3A S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

 

Market Rasen   

3.00 – Mabela   (all Hc’s,m class)  w2  ES+ H3 I3 G3 6/4 S3A# S4

3.30 – Holryale   (all Hc’s,m class)  ES+ 11/4 S3A 

4.40 – Zamparelli   (all Hc’s,m class)  w2  ES+ H1 I3 5/4 S3A#

 

Plumpton

2.25 – Howlongisafoot   (m TJC)  ES+ H3 I3 G1 9/2 S3A# S4 S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

3.25 –

Baddesley Knight   (HcH,m’s dist,age,runs and TJC)  w2  ES+ I3 G1 6/1 S3A# S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Beat The Judge   (HcH,m TJC)  8/1 

5.05 –

Age of Wisdom   (HcH)  w1 H1 I1 G3 11/4 S4 

Dont Tell George   (HcH,m’s age and runs) G3 18/1 S1 S2A 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 6/48, 13p -3.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

 

Nothing from me today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D Pipe PU (14/1< guide)

4.20 FL – Dell Arca

Tom Lacey 

2.15 FL – Lady Cylia

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/Chasers

4.20 FL – Regal Flow

3.15 FL – ALf N Door

4.20 FL – Henllan Harri

Trainers to follow

2.15 FL – Lady Cylia

3.25 P – Equus Amadeus

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Handicap Chase System Starting points (10/1< best)

3.30 MR – Chozen / Larch Hill

Handicap Hurdle Starting Points (16/1<)

3.25 P – Leapaway

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Losing Festival Tips 2019

3.40 C – Tully East

3.50 Fairy – Quamino

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

Irish National Stats/trends pointers : HERE>>>

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

37 Responses

  1. Hear hear Josh, win, lose or draw, do it with a smile on your face. I love this site, best I’ve ever come across by the proverbial mile!! I doff my hat to all who tip on here and just totally admire their enthusiasm. Keep up the good work guys and have a great Easter.
    Best wishes, Tom.

  2. I’m not going to apologise about posting my views on Nick’s selections yesterday but I do apologise to Nick for assuming my comments wouldn’t upset him. Nick, I’m very sorry. My post was made purely on that day’s selections and in no way to do with Nick personally or his much appreciated posts. Not to make light of it all but I did chuckle when the Hipster hinted I was a grinding bastard. I remember him posting that one of my selections couldn’t win ( ironic hipster smile)
    I’m always posting on here that following anyone religiously will result in turmoil and I’m sure nobody with experience actually does. The Nick’s, Martin’s, Joshes, Hipsters among us don’t follow selections religiously but take them on board and add those to their overall view on a race, this is the only way forward and it’s the only way to improve your betting. Once again I will say how absurd it is expecting posters to keep logs considering all the ridiculous nonsense of getting bets on today. Not only does it give rise to dubious figures but it puts pressure on someone who may have a legitimate point to make on a certain race that could be of immense value to everyone.
    I think the best thing that’s happened to this site is the emergence of the “Silly Boys Club” and George, MC and myself as treasurer (only joking smiley) should be praised for making the day more fun. The Club proves people can post their selections daily without any ramifications or expectation of profits, just good old chat between like minds. To be more serious Josh is always doing his best to find not only ways to improve the site but realise some ideas are best dropped. I think his analysis of races is worth the subscription alone and I don’t see why there’s a need for him to add a selection, our psyche appears to be drowned in the old Sporting life selection box syndrome.

    Once again apologies Nick

    1. Thanks Chubnut. I know I know. And I know the place lots of your comments come from esp in terms of how YOU use the content etc. Just singling out the odd horse as being a weird pick, when that hasn’t been your usual style, and with some one who is having an iffy time… Well it wasn’t a great look. That’s in the context that all of us, including you, can put up horses that someone else will think are odd!! That’s the nature of the beast and the more people who think horses are odd in the comments probably the better as that indicates enough unique angles etc.
      There is no right or wrong to how you attack the content. You have your views but please don’t preach to others about what is right or wrong. I follow Nick religiously. He’s the only one I do at the moment in truth. He won me about 4.5k last year. That’s a reality. He’s a better daily tipster than I am across the board. That’s not changing.
      Your kind words are appreciated. I think I read a jumps race as well as anyone, esp a distance chase, but that does have to translate into results again but you’ll always know why I fancy someone. And you can pick holes in my picks anytime you please ! 🙂 Enjoy your Sunday and crack open a bottle on me.

    2. To be honest, reading Chub’s comments about specific horses, I didn’t think he was being offensive and I’m surprised if offence was taken.

      And….. Nick has absolutely nothing to prove, and I’m very grateful for his generosity, and the generosity of others sharing their tips here, that have helped me with my wagers over the last years.

      1. It’s not about taking offence. Albeit I have a high threshold for what I deem offensive and in truth I’ve still never read anything in the members posts that’s id class as such. Now a private convo say about horses and why selected is fine. I think the issue there was the randomness. You could have picked numerous horses form various ‘tipsters’ in which to critique , way before yesterday. But it’s pointless esp when an explanation. You can probe in terms of the odd question etc but when someone is on a rough run, enquiring in such a way will spark a reaction. The main point is that everyone reacts differently to various comments. I like interaction and questioning as I think ‘sunshine wins the day’ and it’s all a learning process. But I’m not everyone etc. I believe Chubnuts comments came from a friendly place but you could pick holes in every selection ever posted depending on how YOU read the game. That’s why it’s tricky. Anyway. That’s the game. On we roll . It’s been a tough jumps season generally and April is always tricky with the crossover.

    3. Hi Chubnut
      Deeply offended that you in your wildest dreams could imagine that forces quote was aimed at you ha ha, for can include myself in that quote.
      One reason do not do write ups for have done my research and if anyone wishes to back my bet it is up to them, if you do write ups on a forum then you should expect some comments and opinions from time to time and obviously they will not always agree with your view.
      From memory Chubnut the one that i said could not win of yours, you did not mention if i was right and it lost, coarse i was right always am, if only ha ha.
      Show me your birth certificate and will show you mine!!!!! smiley face
      Cheers
      Hipster

  3. SBC END OF DAY REPORT (DUPLICATE) :
    just a thought :
    even if you had backed every horse on this (mostly scoffed at ) list you would have still made 8.28 pts profit to BFSP ………… just saying
    good night … it was a good day actually
    gb
    P.s. would the club treasurer ( as above ) please return with all of the clubs winnings today please !!
    p.p.s. my up to date April tipping competition tally : 143 bets = profit of £ 172.14 roi = 120.28 % ..ish ??????
    Still winning !! 🙂
    internal memo : Chubnuts report to mc’s office in the morning !!

  4. yea well said Josh, i f I were a member i think I would have waded in on some comments made yesterday, we are all lucky to have pros post their picks for free here…thanks to all who post win lose or draw

  5. System selections for Sunday _ Karl Burke at Southwell.

    2.35 Constitutional;
    3.35 Parallel World and Secret Footsteps;
    4.45 Hurricane Hero and Simon’s Smile.

    So 5 x 1 point win bets. Good luck.

      1. Good shout Martin, I was on at 33s as well!
        I have been following an Andrew Mount system (Racing and Football Outlook) for a couple of years now whereby you back all Karl Burke’s horses on their second career run. It’s been a bit quiet of late but certainly produced the goods today.

  6. just a quick comment on Chubnuts post yesterday, i read it but chose to ignore it as i had already picked the same horse as Nick and i still posted and backed it. i did think some of the phrasing was odd but Chubnut is Chubnut and racing is all about opinions.
    my time is very limited especially in the mornings but i do try to put up my reasoning when possible which isn’t very often at the moment as we care for two elderly relatives one with Alzheimer’s.
    Nick please please carry on doing what you do and have a great time in Paris.
    i’ll get back to trying to find something worth backing today now.

  7. THE RTP SILLY-BOYS CLUB EASTER SUNDAY ALL WEATHER SIR-MEN
    ************************************************************************
    2.05 Southwell 7 Another Situation (USA) 🙂 🙂
    2.05 Southwell 11 Be Bold 🙂 🙂
    2.05 Southwell 3 Essential 🙂 🙂
    2.05 Southwell 1 Fly True 🙂
    2.05 Southwell 4 I Am Dandy (IRE) 🙂 🙂
    2.05 Southwell 9 Space War 🙂
    2.05 Southwell 14 Major Muscari (IRE) 🙂
    2.05 Southwell 13 Ramblow 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.35 Southwell 2 Constitutional (IRE) 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.35 Southwell 5 Littledidyouknow (IRE) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.35 Southwell 4 Hollaback Girl 🙂
    2.35 Southwell 3 Mystic Knight (IRE) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.05 Southwell 5 Captain Lars (SAF) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.05 Southwell 10 Mr Buttons (IRE) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.05 Southwell 2 Mujassam 🙂 🙂
    3.05 Southwell 3 The Great Wall (USA) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.05 Southwell 8 Whirl Me Round 🙂 🙂
    3.05 Southwell 4 Shepherds Purse 🙂
    3.35 Southwell 1 Cape Victory (IRE) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.35 Southwell 2 Chance Of Glory (FR) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.35 Southwell 3 Ollivander (IRE) 🙂
    3.35 Southwell 4 Parallel World (IRE) 🙂
    3.35 Southwell 5 Secret Footsteps (IRE) 🙂
    4.10 Southwell 2 Navajo Star (IRE) 🙂 🙂
    4.10 Southwell 3 Rashdan (FR) 🙂 🙂
    4.10 Southwell 9 Deep Resolve (IRE) 🙂
    4.10 Southwell 1 Gang Warfare 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.10 Southwell 7 High Command (IRE) 🙂
    4.10 Southwell 8 Nelson Road (IRE) 🙂 🙂
    4.45 Southwell 6 Archies Lad 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.45 Southwell 1 Fly Lightly 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.45 Southwell 2 Hurricane Hero (FR) 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.45 Southwell 3 Mondain 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.45 Southwell 4 Tigray (USA) 🙂
    4.45 Southwell 5 Simons Smile (FR) 🙂
    4.45 Southwell 7 Swerved (IRE) 🙂
    5.15 Southwell 9 Captain Dion 🙂
    5.15 Southwell 7 Elusif (IRE) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    5.15 Southwell 3 Global Melody 🙂
    5.15 Southwell 8 Hippeia (IRE) 🙂
    5.15 Southwell 2 Rasheeq (IRE) 🙂
    AHMEN 🙂
    Happy Chocolate Egg eating day !! 🙂
    gl/gb
    M.C………you know your duty with above …. find us a winner amongst them 😉
    Inter

    1. m.c. Happy easter ………… i am awol now until later tonight .. hope your enjoying your day on the boardwalk somewhere !! 🙂
      gl/gb 🙂
      Harvester for me again .. i know how to treat my family 😉
      adios !
      p.s if Another situation wins the first .. i might join you in retirement land ! 🙂

      1. And to you and yours G. Sorry was a bit late this morning, out enjoying the sun. If you pick this up via those young persons smartphones, these are my Southwell views.

        2.05 – of your list I like Fly Time and Space War, La Cumpersita is the danger if she takes to the surface.

        3.05 – yep, Mr Buttons and The Great Wall for me.

        16.45 – Hurricane Hero and Simons Smile, Fly Lightly the danger.

        17.15 – I think Elusif is my strongest fancy on a weak day. The Golden Cue could get a place.

        All the best Silly Boy G, have fun.

        1. omg ….. what a disaster my smileys were today !! i think i am retiring them for good now .. rip 🙂 my tipping compo in tatters now as well !! 🙁 time to re-think things gb 🙁 …………… it takes me longer to copy n paste all the smileys than it does to place my bets !!
          good night
          gb 🙂 = no more

          1. You can’t let one bad day deter you 🙂 That’s the unlimited salad bar talking, lol.

            Wolverhampton tomorrow and Kimberlite Candy for the Irish National.

          2. oh mc ……………………… 🙁
            There’s only so many “rocky horror’s” you can have in one sitting ..lol 🙂
            I lost so much money today i had to ask mrs gb to pay for all of us today 🙁
            But i shall awake tomorrow hopefully feeling a lot less bloated and gloated !!
            Hope u poached some winners today instead ?????
            deflating mr gb 🙁

          3. Just the two, one from following the market in the last 🙂

            On y va!! No deflating GBs allowed 🙂

    2. yayy not so bad after all gb … only a 6.54 pt loss on bfsp today 🙂
      just the 41 selections = 4 winners and 30.46 pts winnings …….. live to fight another day son ! 🙂
      night 🙂

  8. Today’s selections.
    Plumpton.
    3-25. Equus Amadeus 15-2 1pt ew
    5-05. Sixties Idol 14-1 1/2 pt ew
    Ffos Las .
    2-15. Field Exhibition 12-1 1/2 pt ew
    3-45, Never Equalled 18-1 1/4 pt ew

    1. There is a pattern forming here Martin….haha. Some will say we are in cahoots, good luck and i hope Equus proves us right!!

      1. reduced fields and r4’s have pretty much screwed me, i wouldn’t back Field Exhibition in a 7 horse race as i was just hoping he would nick a place and i imagine there’s going to be a 20%+ r4 for Equus Amadeus, but the moneys down so i’ll just have to bite the bullet.
        might be nice if a bookie gave the option of cancelling ew bets if field drops below 8 but not much chance of that.

  9. Put these up on last nights post, apologies if the prices have gone.Will do write ups now.

    15:25 Plumpton
    EQUUS AMADEAUS 1pt win 7/1 gen
    The only thing i can think is “why would they send this horse all the way up to Ayr (twice), then send it down here?”. It was one of those pace horses that i babble on about, never really doing enough to win, but, posting decent speed figures. Trainer seems to think Plumpton may not play to his strengths, me, i believe the opposite, otherwise i wouldn`t be selecting it! The 3rd at Ayr behind Verdana Blue is good form..
    MISTER UNIVERSUM 1/2 pt e/w 25/1 Hills
    Now, this one is also a pace/speed horse in my books, the price is unbelievable and i have backed it each way as i believe with all horses that make all, there may just be something that comes out of the pack, he may steal a march though, as, he loves the ground and may suit the track. that 25/1 for a Skelton horse…..we shall as always see…

    15:50 FFos Las
    REGAL FLOW 6/1 1pt win
    Former Midlands National winner, Mr Cobden has been booked also, which always alerts me to maybe someone wanting to win a certain prize, he should switch off RF and will be tough to pass if he gets in front, he ran well on good ground in a veterans race on good ground at Ascot 3 weeks back, so, going will not be a problem.
    HENLAN HARRI 15/2 1pt win
    This horse is in the same veign as the winner last year that I tipped up as I remember, out of form, no chance etc..I managed to just catch the 14/1 on offer at PP for about 5 minutes at around 5:15 yesterday, but, the 15/2 with a non runner is fine and is firmly in the value slot for what I like in a race of this nature! Loves track/ going etc..

    16:20 Fairyhouse
    VEINARD 1pt win 16/1 gen
    I am not getting caught out this time, this horse looks out of form, out of everything, but, after not tipping up WOODS WELL the other week I`m not missing out on this fella.
    My reasoning is this, i believe this horse likes this track, yes he has placed efforts only here, but, they were against some smart horses, (Thomas Hobson and Cadmium to name but two.) this race has nothing like that and i think back on a sound surface here he is the forgotten horse.
    IMPACT FACTOR 1pt win 5/1 lads
    I have to select this one as it is from one of my favourite Irish stables Mrs Harrington, short enough mind at those prices, but, he is a class act on his day and this race will give bearing as to whether i select another one of my favourite horses WHISPERINTHEBREEZE for tomorrows Irish National, although i do think that is a prep run for a “big one” at Punchestown festival, we shall see, but, if on song should run all of these into the ground, if not, the one above may capitalize.

    As always hope all jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

    1. Blimey, the old curse of non-runners, it really grates me this as you all know. I understand some horses don`t eat up, knock themselves in travel, but, going concerns??? really??, in this day and age you don`t read weather reports and know that the track your taking your horse to is going to bone dry / a mudbath? Rant over!! (It`s only because of the stupid rule 4`s that the bookies love to hit us with…it`s their new tax as far as I`m concerned!!).

      1. Sadly some courses over water and produce different going to what they advertise and the clerks view is they have paid the staff and horsebox fees to travel they will run even though the horse does not act on the going, they are only interested in the paying customer coming through the gates and with small fields the attendances will be down and loss of income to the course.
        Witnessed this once at Stratford the going good walked the course it had been watered and after the first race the jockeys were covered in mud, so Dai’s view good to soft later in the day as the rains came it was changed to soft.
        Dai would not have taken his horse to Stratford if the true going had been advertised, and he had a heated debate with the Clerk of the course and i was fearful it would come to blows.
        Colin

  10. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    F 3.45 – Champagne Champ on 2nd run @ 2
    …………Sporting Boy on 3rd run @ 12
    P 2.25 – Belmont Park on 2nd run @ 2
    Festival/BRT
    P 3.25 – Mister Universum on 7th run @ 12
    C 3.40 – Tully Esat on 1st run @ 3
    C 4.15 – Whiskey Sour on 4th, 6th and 7th run @ 11/8
    Fa 2.50 – Salsaretta on 1st run @ 6
    Fa 3.20 – R’evelyn Pleasure on 1st run @ 7/2
    Fa 3.50 – Quamino on 1st run @ 8
    3m+
    F 3.45 – Sporting Boy on 3rd run @ 12
    F 4.20 – Regal Flow on 5th and 7th run @ 5
    …………Henllan Harri on 2nd run @ 9/2
    …………On The Road on 4th and 5th run @ 12
    C 3.10 – Call It Magic on 4th run @ 12
    GL

  11. COLINS BETS
    3.00 Market Rasen Salto Chisco BOG 10/3
    5.15 Southwell Socialites Red BOG 6/1
    ELITE BETS
    3.15 Ffos Las Alf n Dor BOG 10/3
    NEW BETS
    No bet
    Colin

  12. Nothing from me today…suffering from the Chubnut/Mazur blues..even when the former aplogizes it sounds like an insult …cannot be arsed or is it Chubnut just needs a hug?

    1. Chubnut is just a wind- up merchant (WUM). Every site has one & hopefully Josh will see the light & ban him from the site. However, it is Josh’s site & who has access to it is entirely up to him – and rightly so.

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