Members Daily Post: 20/04/19 (complete)

No tips. Section 1 (complete), test zone

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Carlisle

1.40 –

Viserion  (micro runs) 12/1 S2

Strait Run   (HcH)  w1 I3 13/2 

Kisumu   (HcH) 16/1 S2A 

 

Haydock

1.30 –

Burn Baby Byrne   (m age)  w1 H3 I3 G3 9/1 S4 S1 + S5 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

Miss Tynte   (m runs) I3 11/1 S2 S5

Birch Vale   (m runs) 25/1 S2A 

2.05 –

Beach Break   (m +class) 20/1 S2A 

Nayati   (m’s runs and +class) 33/1 

Peterborough   (m age)  w2 22/1 S2A 

2.40 – Uhlan Bute   (m TJC) 8/1 

 

Newton Abbot

2.45 – Bramble Brook   (m class) I3 G1 11/2  S1 (ONLY IF 11.00+ BFSP) 

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FLAT

Brighton

4.45 – Upavon   (m dist) H3 7/1 

6.20 –

Creek Harbour   (4yo+) (R1) H1 I3 3/1 

Rivas Rob Roy   (m’s class and age)(R1) H3 I1 G3 4/1 S4 

6.50 –

Stormingin   (m TJC) H3 I3 7/2 

Roy Rocket   (all Hc’s, 4yo+) G3 13/2 

7.50 – Junoesque   (m class) H3 I3 9/2 

 

Nottingham

4.30 – Pearl Noir   (all Hc’s,4yo+, m class) G3 10/1 

 

Mussleburgh

1.50 – Commander Han   (m age) 8/1 

3.00 –

Savalas   (m age) (T1) G3 10/1 

Royal Brave   (m dist) 12/1 

Primos Comet   (m runs)  w2 I3 16/1 

4.05 – Mount Kinabalu   (m age) (R1)  w1 H3 G1 7/4 

5.15 –

Amazing Grazing   (m’s dist and class) H1 I1 9/2 S1 

Gold Stone   (m age) H3 I3 6/1 

Kinloch Pride   (m dist) I3 12/1 

Lord Of The Glen   (m runs) (T1) I3 13/2 

5.45 – Our Place In Loule   (m dist)  w1  w2 H3 I3 G1 7/2 S4 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 6/48, 13p -3.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/76,20p, -40, 2019 Flat TEST 2/6,3p, +4.25)

 

NO TIPS today.

The Haydock card is very uninspiring, especially the two 3m+ handicap chases. Something will fall in and win but nothing at the prices could tempt me in. I’d be finding a bet in those for the sake of it, which is never advisable. A day of quantity but not much quality so I won’t bother. 

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Blessed To Empress

She runs for us in the 6.20 at Brighton. I’ve no really strong views as to her chance. She likes the track and LTO was just an off day. I could tell from her behaviour pre race that she just wasn’t up for it at all, and she ran as such. In any case I don’t think she stays 8f. There’s a few interesting ones in here but she is well handicapped now, esp with the claim, and if she runs her race she should be thereabouts. Whether something has more improvement in them, we shall see. She is open to attack now from anything that may have more in hand etc. Her price feels about right to me but hopefully she runs a good race. I wouldn’t be shocked if she won, as she has the ability to do so at this level. She does also still need to prove she stays 7f also, esp away from the AW. 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

D McCain (14/1< guide)

1.30 H – Birch Vale

2.05 H – Beach Break / Nayati

4.00 Carl – Tawseef

Paddy Brennan (14/1< guide)

3.50 H – Troubled Soul

4.20 H – Copper West

2.05 H – Tim Rocco

A Honeyball Mares

1.30 H – Duhallow Gesture

 

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Trainers to follow

1.30 H – Misty Bloom

3.15 H – Boreham Bill

3.20 NA – Boomarang

5.10 Carl – Tonicngin

Jockeys/Chases 

3.55 NA – Lord Bryan

3.50 H – The Bay Birch

LTO winning trainers

3.50 H – The Bay Birch

1.30 H – Burn Baby Byrne

LTO winning hurdlers

5.00 NA – Mlangen

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Adam Normans Little Black Book 

3.20 NA- Boomarang

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

122 Responses

  1. Selections then write ups in morning. There are quite a few…#gonemad
    13:30 Haydock
    MARTILLA 9/1 gen 1pt win
    MISS TYNE 14/1 pp / bfr 1pt win

    14:05 Haydock
    CASA TALL 8/1 gen 1pt win
    CUBSWIN 11/1 bfr /pp 1pt win

    14:40 Haydock
    UHLAN BUTE 8/1 gen 1pt win
    SUMKINDOFKING 7/1 gen 1pt win

    15:15 Haydock
    SKIDOOSH 7/1 gen 1pt win
    FAITHFUL MOUNT 15/2 1pt win

    (TEST ZONE back at your peril!!!)
    (15:00 Musselburgh)
    (Mokaatil 9/1 gen 1pt win)
    (Saaheq 10/1 gen 1pt win)

    (15:35 Musselburgh)
    (Lucky Deal 9/1 gen 1pt win)
    (Making Miracles 15/2 pp/bfr 1pt win)

    Write ups in morning, know there are a few there, but, after the sand yesterday and the fact I`m off to Haydock tomorrow, we have what we have!!
    See you in the morning.

    1. Here we go then, try and be as concise as I can
      13:30 Haydock
      MARTILLA
      Won 4 times and placed 5 in 17 runnings, can`t see that form changing here, looks as though the drying ground will help and it will be fairly rattling today as we have a scorcher of a Saturday at Haydock!
      MISS TYNE
      Blinkers have now been refitted and the lto run was just a sharpener, will have come on for that and at 14/1 looks incredible value.

      14:05 Haydock
      CASA TALL
      I always love horses that come back in class and distance and we have found one here, lto was in the Martin Pipe race at Cheltenham this flatter track will help and at 8/1 is value for us, trainer won this in 2017, so, we shall see, have they plotted this?
      CUBSWIN
      Dickie in the plate for this switch of front running tactics of a horse..this track suits those type of horses (remember SYKES), if Dickie has enough left in the tank, this one could burn them all off!

      14:40 Haydock
      SUMKINDOFKING
      I looked long and hard at this race and could only come out with two in this race and they have both faced each other before, SKOK has the class and if he can put to bed the jumping errors he occasionally makes, then he should be good enough even off top weight here, drying ground also a plus.
      UHLAN BUTE
      Another who has a struggle at jumping and it may be his undoing here, but, if on song again like SKOK above he should battle it out with him and we may have a right ding dong here, UB will also like the drying ground and with the sun on his back is value at the posted price!

      15:15 Haydock
      SKIDOOSH
      Well, not only has this one got the best name in the race, he will love this drying ground and lto was deffo on a softer surface than he is used to. Lorcan Williams is an excellent claiming jockey and with 5 wins from last 7 rides this has all the hallmarks of a good old fashioned “steamer!!” as Big Mac used to quote!
      FAITHFUL MOUNT
      Yes, it`s the boring been there, seen it, done it choice, everything in it`s favour etc, but, if SKIDOOSH doesn`t find anything off the bit then this fella will, staying is the key with him and he has won at Haydock before, albeit on the flat. Value at the price and with him also, the drying ground is key.

      15:00 Musselburgh
      MOKAATIL
      5lb weight increase quickly offset by claiming jockey, quick turnaround and this one should bolt in again.
      SAAHEQ
      M Appleby likes this horse and believes he is one of his success stories, low weight and good draw should excel at this course.H

      15:35 Musselburgh
      LUCKY DEAL
      Mark Johnston on fire again and this one will be ready and able. Out of the 4 he sends here I have picked 2, hope they are the right 2. Looked a good staying prospect and i do know Mr Johnston does like his stayers.
      MAKING MIRACLES
      Out of the 4 like i said i liked the look of these 2, this one just gets the nod because of the fact he can front run, he has oodles of pace and speed and he may slip away from his stable companions if they are not at the races! We shall see…

      As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with what ever you select today!

      1. Well done Stewart, taking on these tricky races. I have permed them in doubles and acca’s. I am not tipping today. Haydock looks too hard and there are too many other races to get my head around.

        System selections:

        Emma Lavelle handicappers – These need to be 5/1 + and are 2 points win below 8/1 and 1 point each way at 8/1+.
        1.30 HP Misty Bloom; 3.15 HP Boreham Bill; 3.35 NA Fox Appeal.

        Christian Williams chasers 25F+ – 2.45 NA Lord In Red and Primal Focus.

        Good luck.

  2. Due to a combination of some terrible picks and a lot of terrible luck this month leaves a lot to be desired although plenty of time to turn things around. I am off to Paris tomorrow (perfect example of my timing this month) until Monday so I may or may not be tipping the next couple of days.

    Night Generation Newton Abbot 14:10 1pt e/w-18/1-Tipped up in May last year when just getting done for 2nd. He than ran another 2nd off 3lbs higher over course distance and class before being outclassed in a class 2 and not liking the cut. Since than he has had a wind op and a 200 day break and a comeback run. They take off the tongue tie here. Unlike a number of these he will have no issues with the trip or the ground even if it turns fast whilst a fair of these have concerns with one or both. Should be able to lead or race prominently and is not the outsider of the field.

    Brian The Snail Musselburgh 13:50 1pt e/w-14/1-This one is not a class 2 animal but he has yet to lose at class 3 or lower level and 3lbs below his last winning which also happened to be the last time he ran in a class 3. Fahey has always had a very good record at the track in April and is an excellent 10/46, 20p +24.13 here in the past 12 months. Won on his 2nd start in each of his last 2 seasons and looked overpriced to me.

    Final Venture Musselburgh 15:00 1pt e/w-8/1 5 places-Not a very original pick but is extremely consistent and has yet to be out of the places in class 2 races over 20k. Will try and lead and if that’s not possible will be definitely up there. Midgley has won this before and I like the Mulrennan booking as he rides the track well and is 5/27, 10p for the trainer at the track. Deserves to win on of these and I would be disappointed if he was out of the places.

    1. There has never been a shortage of positive comments for a poster who’s selections have been is successful in the past and everyone want’s to be polite but I can’t let this one go without a wealth warning. On paper Brian the snail has a great chance but being a Koukash Hoss and Chester coming up, I’d be shocked this wins or even places. Final Venture is a bridesmaid hoss which needs plenty others to drop dead to win.

        1. I have a tremendous record when turning round noughtfer stats. All I have to do is mention them.

          Midgley is 0/66 with 90+ days, Flat handicaps 2015 to present.

      1. I guess you don’t like free money since that was never going to be out of the first five. Maybe I should be advising multiple points to place there on exchanges. Winner was the first horse below 93 to win the race in a decade.

        On a different note I’m going to take the rest of the month off since I really don’t need the stress some of the comments are causing. Would be different if I was getting paid for this but I’m not so I’ll see you all at the start of May.

        1. Nick
          Enjoy Paris and totally switch off and i for one look forward to when you are refreshed and put your bets on again, old forces quote dont let the bastards grind you down!
          Cheers
          Colin

        2. Perfect. Just over £1500.00 down having followed Nick for just a week.That in its self is not the problem as this is a LONG TERM game. Made the decision to add to my portfolio having watched for 6 months+ and seen the profit made (and is apparently better on the flat) The problem is if you idiots who seem to knock after a few losers piss him off enough then how am i and others going to recover those losses and make a profit? DON’T BITE THE HAND THAT FEEDS YOU!!!!

    2. I do believe Nick is right. I cannot comment for him, only myself, it is stressful enough to put your selections and reasoning on here without judgement when you are on song, when your not, it hurts like hell. I do not get paid for my selections or my time, for putting out reasoning on a weekly basis, Nick does it on a daily basis and for that I am grateful, his way of thinking is brilliant and if you make a profit backing each way then so be it!! I was totally in awe last year when he clocked up profit left / right and centre, but, as we know, you hit a blip (which we all do) and out come the knives and it`s Et Tu Brutus!! I don`t think I could have gained the profit i have this National Hunt season if it weren`t for him and some of the others and for that I`m really in his and the others debt! My selection methods weren`t the problem, it was my inability to specialize in both betting and certain races, Josh, Nick and some of the others all gave me invaluable advice! I know Chubbers was just having his opinion and he is entitled to it, but, we need people like Nick on here to keep driving us to profit, let us not lose sight of what the site is called RACING TO PROFIT and lets keep racing together, towards it!!!

      1. I think everyone is entitled to their opinion. I know from experience that negative comments can get you down but as long as it’s polite and not abusive, it should be taken for what it is. An opinion.

        Nick you have shown over the long term that you have a successful method and should be proud of your record here on RTP. Hope you are back sooner rather than later.

  3. SATURDAY THOUGHTS
    I’m finding it very difficult to find bets where the odds aren’t short which is something happening more and more. Thankfully for a couple of years now I’ve been laying bets in some of those races mainly to get something out of the time I’ve put in and I would say its an angle well worth looking at. Last year I made 1800 on a few strategies laying to a liability between 40 to 100, you need to get them right but many a time I get a race down to two short ones and the lays is a good option. I’ll post my lays in the morning once I’ve got mine on.
    I’ve got two short ones which I still haven’t decided what bets to do, double, EW double, put them with the main one etc etc. They are
    2.40 Hay The Paddy Pie
    4.20 Hay Princeton Royale
    4.30 Nott Major Valentine each way
    I’m hoping this one makes all up the stand rail, something it’s done with this jock before, the opposition isn’t that great with some getting the worst of the draw. I would have a holding watch here as the jock might allow this to be a barge in the betting.
    1.40 Carl Lady Samback.
    Another which I would take more serious if it was bigger.
    5.45 Muss. Pennsylvania dutch.
    Another short one I’ve been told is a shoe in.
    Use my findings and add it to your own theories but always know I might not even bet some of these depending on odds etc. Major Valentine will be my only definite bet. Good luck lads

  4. Selections then write ups in morning. There are quite a few…#gonemad
    13:30 Haydock
    MARTILLA 9/1 gen 1pt win
    MISS TYNE 14/1 pp / bfr 1pt win

    14:05 Haydock
    CASA TALL 8/1 gen 1pt win
    CUBSWIN 11/1 bfr /pp 1pt win

    14:40 Haydock
    UHLAN BUTE 8/1 gen 1pt win
    SUMKINDOFKING 7/1 gen 1pt win

    15:15 Haydock
    SKIDOOSH 7/1 gen 1pt win
    FAITHFUL MOUNT 15/2 1pt win

    (TEST ZONE back at your peril!!!)
    (15:00 Musselburgh)
    (Mokaatil 9/1 gen 1pt win)
    (Saaheq 10/1 gen 1pt win)

    (15:35 Musselburgh)
    (Lucky Deal 9/1 gen 1pt win)
    (Making Miracles 15/2 pp/bfr 1pt win)

    Write ups in morning, know there are a few there, but, after the sand yesterday and the fact I`m off to Haydock tomorrow, we have what we have!!
    See you in the morning.

    1. Here we go then, try and be as concise as I can
      13:30 Haydock
      MARTILLA
      Won 4 times and placed 5 in 17 runnings, can`t see that form changing here, looks as though the drying ground will help and it will be fairly rattling today as we have a scorcher of a Saturday at Haydock!
      MISS TYNE
      Blinkers have now been refitted and the lto run was just a sharpener, will have come on for that and at 14/1 looks incredible value.

      14:05 Haydock
      CASA TALL
      I always love horses that come back in class and distance and we have found one here, lto was in the Martin Pipe race at Cheltenham this flatter track will help and at 8/1 is value for us, trainer won this in 2017, so, we shall see, have they plotted this?
      CUBSWIN
      Dickie in the plate for this switch of front running tactics of a horse..this track suits those type of horses (remember SYKES), if Dickie has enough left in the tank, this one could burn them all off!

      14:40 Haydock
      SUMKINDOFKING
      I looked long and hard at this race and could only come out with two in this race and they have both faced each other before, SKOK has the class and if he can put to bed the jumping errors he occasionally makes, then he should be good enough even off top weight here, drying ground also a plus.
      UHLAN BUTE
      Another who has a struggle at jumping and it may be his undoing here, but, if on song again like SKOK above he should battle it out with him and we may have a right ding dong here, UB will also like the drying ground and with the sun on his back is value at the posted price!

      15:15 Haydock
      SKIDOOSH
      Well, not only has this one got the best name in the race, he will love this drying ground and lto was deffo on a softer surface than he is used to. Lorcan Williams is an excellent claiming jockey and with 5 wins from last 7 rides this has all the hallmarks of a good old fashioned “steamer!!” as Big Mac used to quote!
      FAITHFUL MOUNT
      Yes, it`s the boring been there, seen it, done it choice, everything in it`s favour etc, but, if SKIDOOSH doesn`t find anything off the bit then this fella will, staying is the key with him and he has won at Haydock before, albeit on the flat. Value at the price and with him also, the drying ground is key.

      15:00 Musselburgh
      MOKAATIL
      5lb weight increase quickly offset by claiming jockey, quick turnaround and this one should bolt in again.
      SAAHEQ
      M Appleby likes this horse and believes he is one of his success stories, low weight and good draw should excel at this course.H

      15:35 Musselburgh
      LUCKY DEAL
      Mark Johnston on fire again and this one will be ready and able. Out of the 4 he sends here I have picked 2, hope they are the right 2. Looked a good staying prospect and i do know Mr Johnston does like his stayers.
      MAKING MIRACLES
      Out of the 4 like i said i liked the look of these 2, this one just gets the nod because of the fact he can front run, he has oodles of pace and speed and he may slip away from his stable companions if they are not at the races! We shall see…

      As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with what ever you select today!

      1. Well done Stewart, taking on these tricky races. I have permed them in doubles and acca’s. I am not tipping today. Haydock looks too hard and there are too many other races to get my head around.

        System selections:

        Emma Lavelle handicappers – These need to be 5/1 + and are 2 points win below 8/1 and 1 point each way at 8/1+.
        1.30 HP Misty Bloom; 3.15 HP Boreham Bill; 3.35 NA Fox Appeal.

        Christian Williams chasers 25F+ – 2.45 NA Lord In Red and Primal Focus.

        Good luck.

  5. Due to a combination of some terrible picks and a lot of terrible luck this month leaves a lot to be desired although plenty of time to turn things around. I am off to Paris tomorrow (perfect example of my timing this month) until Monday so I may or may not be tipping the next couple of days.

    Night Generation Newton Abbot 14:10 1pt e/w-18/1-Tipped up in May last year when just getting done for 2nd. He than ran another 2nd off 3lbs higher over course distance and class before being outclassed in a class 2 and not liking the cut. Since than he has had a wind op and a 200 day break and a comeback run. They take off the tongue tie here. Unlike a number of these he will have no issues with the trip or the ground even if it turns fast whilst a fair of these have concerns with one or both. Should be able to lead or race prominently and is not the outsider of the field.

    Brian The Snail Musselburgh 13:50 1pt e/w-14/1-This one is not a class 2 animal but he has yet to lose at class 3 or lower level and 3lbs below his last winning which also happened to be the last time he ran in a class 3. Fahey has always had a very good record at the track in April and is an excellent 10/46, 20p +24.13 here in the past 12 months. Won on his 2nd start in each of his last 2 seasons and looked overpriced to me.

    Final Venture Musselburgh 15:00 1pt e/w-8/1 5 places-Not a very original pick but is extremely consistent and has yet to be out of the places in class 2 races over 20k. Will try and lead and if that’s not possible will be definitely up there. Midgley has won this before and I like the Mulrennan booking as he rides the track well and is 5/27, 10p for the trainer at the track. Deserves to win on of these and I would be disappointed if he was out of the places.

    1. There has never been a shortage of positive comments for a poster who’s selections have been is successful in the past and everyone want’s to be polite but I can’t let this one go without a wealth warning. On paper Brian the snail has a great chance but being a Koukash Hoss and Chester coming up, I’d be shocked this wins or even places. Final Venture is a bridesmaid hoss which needs plenty others to drop dead to win.

        1. I have a tremendous record when turning round noughtfer stats. All I have to do is mention them.

          Midgley is 0/66 with 90+ days, Flat handicaps 2015 to present.

      1. I guess you don’t like free money since that was never going to be out of the first five. Maybe I should be advising multiple points to place there on exchanges. Winner was the first horse below 93 to win the race in a decade.

        On a different note I’m going to take the rest of the month off since I really don’t need the stress some of the comments are causing. Would be different if I was getting paid for this but I’m not so I’ll see you all at the start of May.

        1. Nick
          Enjoy Paris and totally switch off and i for one look forward to when you are refreshed and put your bets on again, old forces quote dont let the bastards grind you down!
          Cheers
          Colin

        2. Perfect. Just over £1500.00 down having followed Nick for just a week.That in its self is not the problem as this is a LONG TERM game. Made the decision to add to my portfolio having watched for 6 months+ and seen the profit made (and is apparently better on the flat) The problem is if you idiots who seem to knock after a few losers piss him off enough then how am i and others going to recover those losses and make a profit? DON’T BITE THE HAND THAT FEEDS YOU!!!!

    2. I do believe Nick is right. I cannot comment for him, only myself, it is stressful enough to put your selections and reasoning on here without judgement when you are on song, when your not, it hurts like hell. I do not get paid for my selections or my time, for putting out reasoning on a weekly basis, Nick does it on a daily basis and for that I am grateful, his way of thinking is brilliant and if you make a profit backing each way then so be it!! I was totally in awe last year when he clocked up profit left / right and centre, but, as we know, you hit a blip (which we all do) and out come the knives and it`s Et Tu Brutus!! I don`t think I could have gained the profit i have this National Hunt season if it weren`t for him and some of the others and for that I`m really in his and the others debt! My selection methods weren`t the problem, it was my inability to specialize in both betting and certain races, Josh, Nick and some of the others all gave me invaluable advice! I know Chubbers was just having his opinion and he is entitled to it, but, we need people like Nick on here to keep driving us to profit, let us not lose sight of what the site is called RACING TO PROFIT and lets keep racing together, towards it!!!

      1. I think everyone is entitled to their opinion. I know from experience that negative comments can get you down but as long as it’s polite and not abusive, it should be taken for what it is. An opinion.

        Nick you have shown over the long term that you have a successful method and should be proud of your record here on RTP. Hope you are back sooner rather than later.

  6. Musselburgh 3-00. Final Venture 9-1 5 places BV
    Haydock 2-05. Cubswin 10-1 5 places sky
    both 1/2 pt ew

    1. Well done Martin….excellent picks!! your doing as well as me at the moment!? Blast now I`ve put the mockers on it!

      1. thanks Stewart, it’s coming back slowly but surely.
        staked 2 pts, returns 9.1 pts , up 7.1 pts

  7. Musselburgh 3-00. Final Venture 9-1 5 places BV
    Haydock 2-05. Cubswin 10-1 5 places sky
    both 1/2 pt ew

    1. Well done Martin….excellent picks!! your doing as well as me at the moment!? Blast now I`ve put the mockers on it!

      1. thanks Stewart, it’s coming back slowly but surely.
        staked 2 pts, returns 9.1 pts , up 7.1 pts

  8. 4 and 1/2 months on and i feel like i am a jinx 🙁 A bit of self indulgence here and hope folk will forgive that. Is it possible to really be an apparent jinx on anyones selections i follow? Of course not it s complete nonsense to even think it. Sadly after starting with following a number of people/methods to follow it transpired that there were too many. Every single one i initially followed (beyond Nick and Josh) immediately went backwards as soon as i started backing (Josh s from + 32 into freefall.) When i corrected this and stayed only with Joshs S1 and S3A# (plus S6 which has hardly started yet) and BRTips and Nick’s it seemed a corner had been turned. However since Cheltenham my Bank has hurtled backwards like a sprinter in reverse. Nick’s comments yesterday were a salutary reminder that it s a very tough game, and Josh’s -40 on BRTips, and after good previous years, a Losing Cheltenham, all of which i supported.

    Just want to emphasise that i am NOT complaining but there are a few things which others- especially newbies since i started 5 th December – might find helpful from my experience.

    1. DO follow advice. I didn’t follow Josh s advice fully to keep to just a few to follow initially, and was a couple of months before adjusting that. Also Chubnut made some interesting and useful observations. (the issue of sometimes having multiple selections in one race for instance)

    2. Use DOUBLE the recommended Bank (Chubnut smiley) for EACH method/advisor and you won t be so likely to get into the psychologically challenging aspect of a seriously declining Bank. – so ones with a potential LLR use 200 points, which unless you can afford big losses will translate to halving your stakes!

    3. In truth i have never lost so much in such a relatively short period BUT i realise this is a brilliant Site.

    4 And…so, Keep the faith – as i have – and unless the challenging times since i joined are replicated and turn it into a 12 month disaster – and i feel certain they won’t – then i feel sure as the Flat settles down good solid winning ways, and profits, will return! 🙂

    1. According to my figures Stewart is going well again after a dip and so I am following him. back win only though. Also back Karl Burke at Southwell on the sand until I say no (I will post qualifiers anyway).

      Good luck.

  9. COLINS BETS
    Kempton
    2.00 Royal Birth BOG 4/1
    4.15 Exchequer BOG 17/2
    Musselburgh
    3.00 Line Of Reason BOG 14/1
    Elite and New method will be asap
    Colin

  10. I follow 7 tipsters and I work on the premise that they’re only as good as their last 10 bets (of course they’re not really). I wanted to try and catch tipsters in form and avoid the ones who were not. More importantly for me is that some tipsters can have really long losing runs from time to time and it’s a job to know when to take a break from them.
    If a tipster falls below my cut off point of -2pts for the last 10 bets then they are not backed until they rise above -2pts. I’m generally backing 5 of the 7 tipsters most of the time and it stops me following a tipster over the cliff so to speak. Yes I miss the odd winner and yes sometimes its a juicy price but I miss a ton of losers as well.
    I’ve only been trying this since the start of the year and it shows promise but time will tell. I have it automated so that as I enter bet details to the spreadsheet it tells me if it’s a bet or not.

    1. That is what I do but I have an ongoing approach with more weighting on the past 20 days. The spreadsheet converts into a graph and it tells me who to follow and so back their selections. This is just my opinion but I think your approach may be too ‘short termist’ . Logic tells us that there is no reason why they will go in and out of form except in regard to focus etc. I think that you need to look for long term profit, as any tipster can have short term success but only the few have long term success.
      I know this via Smart Betting Club, who I do some work for, who review tipsters each month. The successful ones are those who have long term profits and very few of them show a profit each year. It is not unusual to lose one or two years out of five but have an overall decent profit margin.

      1. Thanks for your views Martin, I did consider using a time scale and I have the equivalent in bet scales but settled on 10 bets for now. Of course I agree with you that long term profit is the goal and the people I follow achieve this. I prefer to use a bet scale over time scale as waiting for a tipsters profit to rise above the cut off point over a period of time could mean I am missing too many winners, whereas a tipster who is losing over 10 bets usually means I am only missing one winner and plenty of losers. I guess it’s down to the volume of bets and prices really with a dash of preference.
        I’m not sure I agree with your reasoning that there’s no logic for a tipster to go in and out of form as I think there are plenty of reasons why this could happen. Tipsters are not good at all race types, they’re human, they have other stuff going on….I could go on!
        If you really think I’m taking the wrong approach I’d love to hear any advice from you as your thoughts are always welcomed, good luck today and every other day!

  11. John, you are not the only one to “jinx” people on here. I started just before you and like you everything went pear shaped. I was well up with Colin’s Elite bets, doing well with Nick and some tohers and as soon as I felt confident it all went wrong. Not a complaint we are all repsonisble for our own actions but “jinx” is the word. I am sure things will turn round for everyone who is going through a bad patch btu that is why one should have a bank. Looking forward to good returns.

  12. ELITE BETS
    Haydock
    1.30 Rubytwo BOG 14/1
    3.15 Court Liability BOG 8/1
    3.15 Lygon Rock BOG 7/1
    3.15 Sunnytahliateigan BOG 9/1
    4.20 Dentley De Mee BOG 4/1
    Musselburgh
    3.35 Ulster BOG 6/1
    Newton Abbot
    4.25 Lizzie Langton BOG 7/2
    Nottingham
    7.05 Precision Prince BOG 15/2
    7.05 Ignatius BOG 7/1
    NEW METHOD
    Musselburgh
    3.00 Line Of Reason BOG 14/1
    3.35 Ulster BOG 6/1
    Nottingham
    4.30 Gamesome BOG 5/2
    Brighton
    4.45 Spirit Of Zebedee BOG 5/1
    5.50 Blanchefleur BOG 7/2
    Colin

  13. my attempt at Musselburgh through the card, just for fun.
    1-50. Raselasad 15-2
    2-25. Lincoln Park 20-1
    3-00. Final Venture 11-1
    3-35. Ulster 11-2 and a couple of tiny ew’s on Mirsaale 50-1 and Artarmon 16-1
    4-05. Ventura Gold 3-1
    4-40. no bet
    5-15. Lord Of The Glen 11-1
    5-45. Our Place In Loule 9-2

  14. A late start today.
    RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.50 – Forbidding on 1st run @ 66
    H 2.40 – Loose Chips on 1st run @ 16
    …………Salmanazar on 2nd run @ 6
    Na 5.00 – Chasing Headlights on 5th run @ 66
    B 5.50 – Kachumba on 1st run @ 13/2
    Festival/BRT
    H 2.40 – Duel At Dawn on 5th run @ 6
    H 3.15 – Trixster on 1st run @ 4
    M 3.00 – Savalas on 4th run @ 10
    ………….Line of Reason on 7th run @ 14
    M 3.35 – Making Miracles on 2nd run @ 8
    aw
    K 3.45 – Preening on 1st run @ 14
    K 4.50 – Never Surrender on 4th run @ 14
    ………..Polish on 2nd run @ 5
    3m+
    Na 2.45 – Calin du Brizais on 3rd run @ 9/2
    Na 3.55 – Fox Appeal on 7th run @ 4
    GL

  15. SILLY BOYS CLUB INTERNAL ANNOUNCEMENT
    **************************************************
    It’s time ……… to go all weather silly again ……….is their any other way ? 😉
    ************************************************
    1.25 Kempton 1 Audio 3/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    1.25 Kempton 5 Electric Ladyland (IRE) 13/8 🙂
    1.25 Kempton 4 Rathagan 8/1 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 3 Outrage 9.00 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 9 Foxy Forever (IRE)14/1 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 7 Global Academy (IRE)7/2 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 8 Puds6/1 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 1 Royal Birth7.00 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 2 Tomily (IRE) 11.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 5 Udontdodou 16/1 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 1 Canton Queen (IRE) 5/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 7 El Gumryah (IRE) 10/1 🙂 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 2 Gospel 13/2 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 4 Nausha 7/2 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 6 Rux Power 8/1 🙂
    3.10 Kempton 3 Leroy Leroy 7.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.10 Kempton 1 Riviera Nights 3/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.10 Kempton 6 Target Zone 7.00 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 2 Agrotera (IRE) 8/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 3 Anna Nerium 7.50 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 5 Contrive (IRE) 10/1 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 6 Daddys Daughter (CAN) 25/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 10 Rawdaa 5/1 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 11 Savaanah (IRE)10/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 12 Shenanigans (IRE) 9.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 1 Shepherd Market (IRE) 12/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 13 Tiger Eye (IRE) 6/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 14 Vivianite (IRE) 14/1 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 8 Embour (IRE) 12/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 6 Exchequer (IRE) 11.00 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 7 Global Tango (IRE) 5.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 1 Tis Marvellous 8/1 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 2 Vibrant Chords 13/2 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 6 Archimento 14/1 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 11 Gavlar 25/1 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 5 Never Surrender (IRE) 4/1 🙂 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 9 Sharja Silk 7.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    N.B. number of smileys denotes how many micro angles the horse has met
    N.N.B. No not tips everyone ! ………… just hopefully useful confidence builders
    gl/gb 🙂
    P.s. could the right honorable person of “m.c. fame” please dis or celebrate any of these entrants today in his usual styleeeeeeeee 🙂

    1. How many angles are there? I see one horse has scored 8 smileys today. My experience of analysing smileys is that you need to know how many there are in total (a bit like Minions) to make an objective judgement.

      1. i guess it’s like pts per bet as well Martin .. how many points are their for
        a maximum ?? I personally have not got a “out of 10” situation going on with smileys .. lol … its just how many micro angles have been matched….. it’s only a bit of fun for me … and i have occasional days like yesterday where i smashed it out of the park ( was my best profitable day of betting ever yesterday for example .. generally not system wise ) … i am thinking that if you have made your own choice and it’s on my list .. it hopefully must mean it’s a positive ??? …… fingers crossed 🙂
        have a fun day 🙂 ing
        gb 🙂

    2. Hiya G

      Another massive burp from the computer I see. The first thing I did was to see what horses from my fancies also appeared on your list, and the answer was one, lol, Embour in the 4.15 Kempton. So that must be the nap!!

      Other views:

      2.00 – I’m with you on Tomily and I also agree Udontdodou has a shout at a price. I would be concerned about Miss Kellaway’s booking of SDS for Global Academy, she must surely fancy it? And Outrage has a good chance. Common sense says leave it alone but who said we had any common sense?

      2.35 – very tricky but Rux Power for me.

      3.10 – now worried about Leroy Leroy from the smiley count, had fancied Name the Wind.

      3.45 – I’m going to follow you on Anna Nerium, but also Astonished and Agrotera EW.

      4.50 – Again, you have swayed me on Sharja Silk. Archimento might be a good EW play, good t/j stats. Cayirli won it last year and looks to have been laid out for a repeat.

      I know we keep saying it but not a day to get too involved although in your current form you might as well! Have a good Saturday.

      1. nope mc , i agree on “keep a tight reign on the betting bank purse strings” Some say bet bet bigger when you are winning .. but i have lost 1000’s that way in my previous life as a punter .. i bet at modest level stakes now come win or lose and just increase my safety net with every winner hopefully 🙂
        My list is just there for a reference … your reasonings are much solider than mine … so i just like to use our pin pointers as ” bets and/or savers “. Keep having fun wing man mc .. we will have many more missions to come 🙂
        so after 400 reasoning we are just left with : Embour in the 4.15 Kempton lol 🙂
        Fill our boots time expect 🙂
        we shall see later if we are still standing 🙂
        and just for you eyes only : cael betio dydd Sadwrn gwych 🙂 ! ( that’s easy for me to say ! 🙂 ) lol 🙂
        still smiling !! 🙂

      2. shut the front door .. in goes our nap JOINT MC ( EMBOUR ) .. never in doubt .. not even messr. moore could stop us !!!!! .. pay pay pay !!!!!!
        even happier now gb 🙂

        RICE AND CHIPS ..AGAIN MRS GB !! 🙂

        1. The Silly Boys prevail by a nose! I nearly wet myself watching that 🙂 A few other winners earlier in the card G too, one more to go. As we’re up I’m having a small EW on Fibonacci in the last. Mr King has his flat runners in form and Mr Probert rides.

          1. WELL DONE ON NAMED THE WIND ?? … I JUST HAD IT AS A SAVER .. GOOD JOB !! 🙂

          2. NICELY SAVED WITH A PLACE THERE MY MAN .. REAL UPS N LOWS TODAY .. BUT THE NAP COMES IN TO WIN THE MONEY 🙂 CAPS SOZ .. GETTING A BIT EXCITED 🙂
            GOOD NIGHT …… no skinny dipping in that quay !! remember your age 🙂

    3. SBC END OF DAY REPORT :
      just a thought :
      even if you had backed every horse on this list you would have still made 8.28 pts profit to BFSP ………… just saying 😉
      good night 😉
      gb 🙂

      1. Awesome! I think you hit the nail on the head in your reply to Martin today: for most readers if they see any horse they like and it’s in your list, game on! But we do hit some doozies when our thoughts coincide. Here’s to many more of ’em.

        🙂 Goodnight

  16. Bit harsh chubnut about nicks tips April has been tough for nick followers. Any tipster can have a dodgy run of luck and poor selections I hope he soon turns a corner because big price tipping is a difficult thing to do happy easter to all

    1. I think Chub was just making comments about horses running today and not any tipster. I take the point about Final Venture but it was the one I liked when I looked at the race. I think today is very hard and ‘betting banks’ should not be aired to any great extent. Easier days ahead hopefully.

  17. Nottingham 5.05 20th April and Result report of Newmarket 5f Novice 17th April
    An interesting race where Godolphin had a 1,2,3, result. The first two were joint top rated by me before the race and the third City Wall was the only Godolphin not in the top tier. City Walk was the one that I chose to wager on e/w at 12/1. The reason he was not in the top tier with the first and second was due to my jockey rating. Pat Cosgrave was up and he gave a pretty good illustration of why he is not quite top tier. Missing the break was understandable on a debutant but he then shook him up too enthusiastically and got him over racing. He did then settle (well prepared) but got tucked in behind the leader and had to be switched out to get a run, went for home too soon and got swamped late on having used most of his petrol earlier in the race. Both Buick and Moore rode better considered races and were rewarded accordingly.
    Photo link: https://imgur.com/a/mhv8lvY

    It was a good race and I would think all of these will win a race at some level this season. Even if it is a class 6 at Lingfield for Lexington Quest.
    1. Well Of Wisdom – unfortunately not seen in the pre parade so a poorish picture. Green and looks like a work in progress as the price suggested. 84
    2. Electrical Storm – Probably a bit better over further running on well, got to the front then swamped by Well Of Wisdom 84
    3. City Walk – Good proportions, the picture suggests he was a bit over-awed which I missed at the time and helps to explain his immaturity in the race. Should improve as much as the two in front of him. The second Brazen Beau I have seen and they look very promising. 82
    4. Strong Power – very likeable strongly made sprint type. Gave it everything but out classed here. 77
    5. Millionaire Waltz – Big and tall type, looked to be very upright at the front end when walking which I thought would compromise his ability. Did not seem to hinder him and if he fills out his frame could be quite useful. 76
    6. Full Verse – The only Godolphin runner I couldn’t have. Backed in to favouritism. Not a bad type but did not look to have quite the class of his stablemates 75
    7. Lexington Quest – perhaps my debut rating of 58 is a bit harsh but didn’t really do enough here for an upgrade.
    8. Percy Green – quite a likeable little chap, well muscled although perhaps still a bit fat. I thought he would be more competitive than this and should find a weak race at least. Untypical run for a Karl Burke debutant as he was never competitive. Worth keeping an eye on for a small race somewhere. 65
    Easter Saturday 2yo races
    Only the 5.05 at Nottingham looks of much interest as Champagne Supanova is likely to attract much of the market due to his third on debut at Windsor. That was a poor race and he only finished a couple of lengths in front of Lexington Quest -see above.
    4.25 Dylan De Vega, Making History
    3.75 Temple Of Heaven,
    2.75 Foad, Isobar Wind
    Previous runs
    Champagne Supernova, compact early season type, very green early and ran on ok as the penny dropped. Shame he got as far as third as there will probably be no value nto. 64
    Isobar Wind – It is the fact that this one did not get in amongst them which leads me to feel that the first 4 may be better than is usually seen this early in the season. Smaller strong type, looked very fit in the paddock but appears to be carrying a bit of belly in the photo. Should win nto at a lesser track 73
    Dangers abound in the unraced Dylan De Vega from Fahey, Making History from SBS and Temple of Heaven from Hannon. SBS has a 35% strike rate with his 2yos at Nottingham. My selection may get outclassed by one of these but should be very competitive.
    1pt win Isobar Wind. 9/1 generally.
    Hugh

  18. 4 and 1/2 months on and i feel like i am a jinx 🙁 A bit of self indulgence here and hope folk will forgive that. Is it possible to really be an apparent jinx on anyones selections i follow? Of course not it s complete nonsense to even think it. Sadly after starting with following a number of people/methods to follow it transpired that there were too many. Every single one i initially followed (beyond Nick and Josh) immediately went backwards as soon as i started backing (Josh s from + 32 into freefall.) When i corrected this and stayed only with Joshs S1 and S3A# (plus S6 which has hardly started yet) and BRTips and Nick’s it seemed a corner had been turned. However since Cheltenham my Bank has hurtled backwards like a sprinter in reverse. Nick’s comments yesterday were a salutary reminder that it s a very tough game, and Josh’s -40 on BRTips, and after good previous years, a Losing Cheltenham, all of which i supported.

    Just want to emphasise that i am NOT complaining but there are a few things which others- especially newbies since i started 5 th December – might find helpful from my experience.

    1. DO follow advice. I didn’t follow Josh s advice fully to keep to just a few to follow initially, and was a couple of months before adjusting that. Also Chubnut made some interesting and useful observations. (the issue of sometimes having multiple selections in one race for instance)

    2. Use DOUBLE the recommended Bank (Chubnut smiley) for EACH method/advisor and you won t be so likely to get into the psychologically challenging aspect of a seriously declining Bank. – so ones with a potential LLR use 200 points, which unless you can afford big losses will translate to halving your stakes!

    3. In truth i have never lost so much in such a relatively short period BUT i realise this is a brilliant Site.

    4 And…so, Keep the faith – as i have – and unless the challenging times since i joined are replicated and turn it into a 12 month disaster – and i feel certain they won’t – then i feel sure as the Flat settles down good solid winning ways, and profits, will return! 🙂

    1. According to my figures Stewart is going well again after a dip and so I am following him. back win only though. Also back Karl Burke at Southwell on the sand until I say no (I will post qualifiers anyway).

      Good luck.

  19. Sticking with selected races at Kempton using George B’s great listings (cracking day yesterday for your listings) as a staring point..hope you don’t mind.

    1.25 like Electric Ladyland here for several reasons:
    won in fast time and is above average..the reason I say that is Nick Mordin universal time for 5 fulongs is 11.62 spf..she ran this in 11.34 spf clocking 39.65 mph so she is above average and it will take a very good horse to beat her. My own take on the figures still has her above average and the trainer is as good as Suroor round here so not a problem there and as she has had a run and won she should be fav according to my reckoning…will I be backing her at this price…not my thing as too short. There is an old adage (not sure how true this is) that you should back top weights in hdcps and bottom weights in stakes races. George B smiley rating has Audio as the better horse and Rathagan the original bottom weight is now a non runner but prefer experience over a horse that has not run and this includes the Suroor horse..what ever wins will have to be a smart horse to catch Electric Ladyland…besides like the Jimi Hendrix connection!

    2.35. Five listed by George with Canton Queen having the most smiley faces. favs 44% which brings in Nausha and has an excellent pedigree and Varian 21% with 3yo. Haggas with Rainbow Heart will give Varian runner the most to do just Shading Canton Queen…on adjusted figures for both course and distance it is difficult to split the three of them and just a pity there is no each way value in the race.
    3.10.. favs 44%…Tricky race Name the Wind and Target Zone have excellent chances and would not discount Leroy Leyro for an upset…again no each way value.

    3.45 to follow

    1. thanks silver 🙂 .. excellent reading your synopsis on my mumblings ……. really appreciate other peoples interpretations 🙂 good stuff 🙂
      gl / gb 🙂
      Hope we all come out on top in some shape or form 🙂

      1. Likewise George, your computer splurges are extremely helpful notwithstanding picking excellent priced winners….a bit slow out of the stalls today…decided to do the washing this morning whilst the weather up here is good and not blowing the clothes off the line….as thought this would be more productive than making selections on what is a poor days racing. All the best

  20. Finally, the 3.45 Kempton with 10 mentions. Really difficult to decipher…the best horses on adjusted course , going and distance figures are 1 )Savaanah. with Tiger Eye and Shenanigans joint 2nd….very fine margins involved and do not discount Daddys Daughter as lightly raced and may well improve running just under 36 mph with the three mentioned running over 36 mph. All the best

    1. hi silver .. once again ……………
      brilliant and thanks for swaying me to put more on electricladyland 😉 ..
      gl for the rest of the days fun 🙂
      gb 🙂

  21. COLINS BETS
    Kempton
    2.00 Royal Birth BOG 4/1
    4.15 Exchequer BOG 17/2
    Musselburgh
    3.00 Line Of Reason BOG 14/1
    Elite and New method will be asap
    Colin

  22. I follow 7 tipsters and I work on the premise that they’re only as good as their last 10 bets (of course they’re not really). I wanted to try and catch tipsters in form and avoid the ones who were not. More importantly for me is that some tipsters can have really long losing runs from time to time and it’s a job to know when to take a break from them.
    If a tipster falls below my cut off point of -2pts for the last 10 bets then they are not backed until they rise above -2pts. I’m generally backing 5 of the 7 tipsters most of the time and it stops me following a tipster over the cliff so to speak. Yes I miss the odd winner and yes sometimes its a juicy price but I miss a ton of losers as well.
    I’ve only been trying this since the start of the year and it shows promise but time will tell. I have it automated so that as I enter bet details to the spreadsheet it tells me if it’s a bet or not.

    1. That is what I do but I have an ongoing approach with more weighting on the past 20 days. The spreadsheet converts into a graph and it tells me who to follow and so back their selections. This is just my opinion but I think your approach may be too ‘short termist’ . Logic tells us that there is no reason why they will go in and out of form except in regard to focus etc. I think that you need to look for long term profit, as any tipster can have short term success but only the few have long term success.
      I know this via Smart Betting Club, who I do some work for, who review tipsters each month. The successful ones are those who have long term profits and very few of them show a profit each year. It is not unusual to lose one or two years out of five but have an overall decent profit margin.

      1. Thanks for your views Martin, I did consider using a time scale and I have the equivalent in bet scales but settled on 10 bets for now. Of course I agree with you that long term profit is the goal and the people I follow achieve this. I prefer to use a bet scale over time scale as waiting for a tipsters profit to rise above the cut off point over a period of time could mean I am missing too many winners, whereas a tipster who is losing over 10 bets usually means I am only missing one winner and plenty of losers. I guess it’s down to the volume of bets and prices really with a dash of preference.
        I’m not sure I agree with your reasoning that there’s no logic for a tipster to go in and out of form as I think there are plenty of reasons why this could happen. Tipsters are not good at all race types, they’re human, they have other stuff going on….I could go on!
        If you really think I’m taking the wrong approach I’d love to hear any advice from you as your thoughts are always welcomed, good luck today and every other day!

  23. John, you are not the only one to “jinx” people on here. I started just before you and like you everything went pear shaped. I was well up with Colin’s Elite bets, doing well with Nick and some tohers and as soon as I felt confident it all went wrong. Not a complaint we are all repsonisble for our own actions but “jinx” is the word. I am sure things will turn round for everyone who is going through a bad patch btu that is why one should have a bank. Looking forward to good returns.

  24. ELITE BETS
    Haydock
    1.30 Rubytwo BOG 14/1
    3.15 Court Liability BOG 8/1
    3.15 Lygon Rock BOG 7/1
    3.15 Sunnytahliateigan BOG 9/1
    4.20 Dentley De Mee BOG 4/1
    Musselburgh
    3.35 Ulster BOG 6/1
    Newton Abbot
    4.25 Lizzie Langton BOG 7/2
    Nottingham
    7.05 Precision Prince BOG 15/2
    7.05 Ignatius BOG 7/1
    NEW METHOD
    Musselburgh
    3.00 Line Of Reason BOG 14/1
    3.35 Ulster BOG 6/1
    Nottingham
    4.30 Gamesome BOG 5/2
    Brighton
    4.45 Spirit Of Zebedee BOG 5/1
    5.50 Blanchefleur BOG 7/2
    Colin

  25. my attempt at Musselburgh through the card, just for fun.
    1-50. Raselasad 15-2
    2-25. Lincoln Park 20-1
    3-00. Final Venture 11-1
    3-35. Ulster 11-2 and a couple of tiny ew’s on Mirsaale 50-1 and Artarmon 16-1
    4-05. Ventura Gold 3-1
    4-40. no bet
    5-15. Lord Of The Glen 11-1
    5-45. Our Place In Loule 9-2

  26. Following Greg’s £3k windfall, reminder have a go at the Golden Race today with WH, 3.35 at Muss. GL RTP.

  27. A late start today.
    RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    C 2.50 – Forbidding on 1st run @ 66
    H 2.40 – Loose Chips on 1st run @ 16
    …………Salmanazar on 2nd run @ 6
    Na 5.00 – Chasing Headlights on 5th run @ 66
    B 5.50 – Kachumba on 1st run @ 13/2
    Festival/BRT
    H 2.40 – Duel At Dawn on 5th run @ 6
    H 3.15 – Trixster on 1st run @ 4
    M 3.00 – Savalas on 4th run @ 10
    ………….Line of Reason on 7th run @ 14
    M 3.35 – Making Miracles on 2nd run @ 8
    aw
    K 3.45 – Preening on 1st run @ 14
    K 4.50 – Never Surrender on 4th run @ 14
    ………..Polish on 2nd run @ 5
    3m+
    Na 2.45 – Calin du Brizais on 3rd run @ 9/2
    Na 3.55 – Fox Appeal on 7th run @ 4
    GL

  28. NOW THEN I HOPE YOU WERE all listening to uncle george last week about highclere 2nd strings over turning the ist colours .. vewntura gold again !! 🙂
    happier gb 🙂

    1. I understand that the Middleham Park colours are not necessarily representative of the strength of the horses chances but more representative of trainer seniority

      1. Hi edward …..Soz i meant middleham racing its me age apologises….. yep and so my theory is whoever is given the second colours get extremely peeved and want to prove a point ????? ;0 gb

  29. Sticking with selected races at Kempton using George B’s great listings (cracking day yesterday for your listings) as a staring point..hope you don’t mind.

    1.25 like Electric Ladyland here for several reasons:
    won in fast time and is above average..the reason I say that is Nick Mordin universal time for 5 fulongs is 11.62 spf..she ran this in 11.34 spf clocking 39.65 mph so she is above average and it will take a very good horse to beat her. My own take on the figures still has her above average and the trainer is as good as Suroor round here so not a problem there and as she has had a run and won she should be fav according to my reckoning…will I be backing her at this price…not my thing as too short. There is an old adage (not sure how true this is) that you should back top weights in hdcps and bottom weights in stakes races. George B smiley rating has Audio as the better horse and Rathagan the original bottom weight is now a non runner but prefer experience over a horse that has not run and this includes the Suroor horse..what ever wins will have to be a smart horse to catch Electric Ladyland…besides like the Jimi Hendrix connection!

    2.35. Five listed by George with Canton Queen having the most smiley faces. favs 44% which brings in Nausha and has an excellent pedigree and Varian 21% with 3yo. Haggas with Rainbow Heart will give Varian runner the most to do just Shading Canton Queen…on adjusted figures for both course and distance it is difficult to split the three of them and just a pity there is no each way value in the race.
    3.10.. favs 44%…Tricky race Name the Wind and Target Zone have excellent chances and would not discount Leroy Leyro for an upset…again no each way value.

    3.45 to follow

    1. thanks silver 🙂 .. excellent reading your synopsis on my mumblings ……. really appreciate other peoples interpretations 🙂 good stuff 🙂
      gl / gb 🙂
      Hope we all come out on top in some shape or form 🙂

      1. Likewise George, your computer splurges are extremely helpful notwithstanding picking excellent priced winners….a bit slow out of the stalls today…decided to do the washing this morning whilst the weather up here is good and not blowing the clothes off the line….as thought this would be more productive than making selections on what is a poor days racing. All the best

  30. Finally, the 3.45 Kempton with 10 mentions. Really difficult to decipher…the best horses on adjusted course , going and distance figures are 1 )Savaanah. with Tiger Eye and Shenanigans joint 2nd….very fine margins involved and do not discount Daddys Daughter as lightly raced and may well improve running just under 36 mph with the three mentioned running over 36 mph. All the best

    1. hi silver .. once again ……………
      brilliant and thanks for swaying me to put more on electricladyland 😉 ..
      gl for the rest of the days fun 🙂
      gb 🙂

  31. Nice double for Sean Davis at Musselburgh today, more than makes up for yesterday, this boy’s going places ……..

  32. As there is no post yet for tomorrow I have a couple of selections below, will do write ups in morning.

    15:25 Plumpton
    EQUUS AMADEAUS 1pt win 7/1 gen
    MISTER UNIVERSUM 1/2 pt e/w 25/1 Hills

    15:50 FFos Las
    REGAL FLOW 6/1 1pt win
    HENLAN HARRI 15/2 1pt win

    16:20 Fairyhouse
    VEINARD 1pt win 16/1 gen
    IMPACT FACTOR 1pt win 5/1 lads

    write ups in morning.

  33. NOW THEN I HOPE YOU WERE all listening to uncle george last week about highclere 2nd strings over turning the ist colours .. vewntura gold again !! 🙂
    happier gb 🙂

    1. I understand that the Middleham Park colours are not necessarily representative of the strength of the horses chances but more representative of trainer seniority

      1. Hi edward …..Soz i meant middleham racing its me age apologises….. yep and so my theory is whoever is given the second colours get extremely peeved and want to prove a point ????? ;0 gb

  34. Nice double for Sean Davis at Musselburgh today, more than makes up for yesterday, this boy’s going places ……..

  35. As there is no post yet for tomorrow I have a couple of selections below, will do write ups in morning.

    15:25 Plumpton
    EQUUS AMADEAUS 1pt win 7/1 gen
    MISTER UNIVERSUM 1/2 pt e/w 25/1 Hills

    15:50 FFos Las
    REGAL FLOW 6/1 1pt win
    HENLAN HARRI 15/2 1pt win

    16:20 Fairyhouse
    VEINARD 1pt win 16/1 gen
    IMPACT FACTOR 1pt win 5/1 lads

    write ups in morning.

  36. SATURDAY THOUGHTS
    I’m finding it very difficult to find bets where the odds aren’t short which is something happening more and more. Thankfully for a couple of years now I’ve been laying bets in some of those races mainly to get something out of the time I’ve put in and I would say its an angle well worth looking at. Last year I made 1800 on a few strategies laying to a liability between 40 to 100, you need to get them right but many a time I get a race down to two short ones and the lays is a good option. I’ll post my lays in the morning once I’ve got mine on.
    I’ve got two short ones which I still haven’t decided what bets to do, double, EW double, put them with the main one etc etc. They are
    2.40 Hay The Paddy Pie
    4.20 Hay Princeton Royale
    4.30 Nott Major Valentine each way
    I’m hoping this one makes all up the stand rail, something it’s done with this jock before, the opposition isn’t that great with some getting the worst of the draw. I would have a holding watch here as the jock might allow this to be a barge in the betting.
    1.40 Carl Lady Samback.
    Another which I would take more serious if it was bigger.
    5.45 Muss. Pennsylvania dutch.
    Another short one I’ve been told is a shoe in.
    Use my findings and add it to your own theories but always know I might not even bet some of these depending on odds etc. Major Valentine will be my only definite bet. Good luck lads

  37. SILLY BOYS CLUB INTERNAL ANNOUNCEMENT
    **************************************************
    It’s time ……… to go all weather silly again ……….is their any other way ? 😉
    ************************************************
    1.25 Kempton 1 Audio 3/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    1.25 Kempton 5 Electric Ladyland (IRE) 13/8 🙂
    1.25 Kempton 4 Rathagan 8/1 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 3 Outrage 9.00 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 9 Foxy Forever (IRE)14/1 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 7 Global Academy (IRE)7/2 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 8 Puds6/1 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 1 Royal Birth7.00 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 2 Tomily (IRE) 11.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.00 Kempton 5 Udontdodou 16/1 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 1 Canton Queen (IRE) 5/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 7 El Gumryah (IRE) 10/1 🙂 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 2 Gospel 13/2 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 4 Nausha 7/2 🙂
    2.35 Kempton 6 Rux Power 8/1 🙂
    3.10 Kempton 3 Leroy Leroy 7.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.10 Kempton 1 Riviera Nights 3/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.10 Kempton 6 Target Zone 7.00 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 2 Agrotera (IRE) 8/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 3 Anna Nerium 7.50 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 5 Contrive (IRE) 10/1 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 6 Daddys Daughter (CAN) 25/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 10 Rawdaa 5/1 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 11 Savaanah (IRE)10/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 12 Shenanigans (IRE) 9.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 1 Shepherd Market (IRE) 12/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 13 Tiger Eye (IRE) 6/1 🙂
    3.45 Kempton 14 Vivianite (IRE) 14/1 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 8 Embour (IRE) 12/1 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 6 Exchequer (IRE) 11.00 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 7 Global Tango (IRE) 5.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 1 Tis Marvellous 8/1 🙂
    4.15 Kempton 2 Vibrant Chords 13/2 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 6 Archimento 14/1 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 11 Gavlar 25/1 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 5 Never Surrender (IRE) 4/1 🙂 🙂
    4.50 Kempton 9 Sharja Silk 7.00 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    N.B. number of smileys denotes how many micro angles the horse has met
    N.N.B. No not tips everyone ! ………… just hopefully useful confidence builders
    gl/gb 🙂
    P.s. could the right honorable person of “m.c. fame” please dis or celebrate any of these entrants today in his usual styleeeeeeeee 🙂

    1. How many angles are there? I see one horse has scored 8 smileys today. My experience of analysing smileys is that you need to know how many there are in total (a bit like Minions) to make an objective judgement.

      1. i guess it’s like pts per bet as well Martin .. how many points are their for
        a maximum ?? I personally have not got a “out of 10” situation going on with smileys .. lol … its just how many micro angles have been matched….. it’s only a bit of fun for me … and i have occasional days like yesterday where i smashed it out of the park ( was my best profitable day of betting ever yesterday for example .. generally not system wise ) … i am thinking that if you have made your own choice and it’s on my list .. it hopefully must mean it’s a positive ??? …… fingers crossed 🙂
        have a fun day 🙂 ing
        gb 🙂

    2. Hiya G

      Another massive burp from the computer I see. The first thing I did was to see what horses from my fancies also appeared on your list, and the answer was one, lol, Embour in the 4.15 Kempton. So that must be the nap!!

      Other views:

      2.00 – I’m with you on Tomily and I also agree Udontdodou has a shout at a price. I would be concerned about Miss Kellaway’s booking of SDS for Global Academy, she must surely fancy it? And Outrage has a good chance. Common sense says leave it alone but who said we had any common sense?

      2.35 – very tricky but Rux Power for me.

      3.10 – now worried about Leroy Leroy from the smiley count, had fancied Name the Wind.

      3.45 – I’m going to follow you on Anna Nerium, but also Astonished and Agrotera EW.

      4.50 – Again, you have swayed me on Sharja Silk. Archimento might be a good EW play, good t/j stats. Cayirli won it last year and looks to have been laid out for a repeat.

      I know we keep saying it but not a day to get too involved although in your current form you might as well! Have a good Saturday.

      1. nope mc , i agree on “keep a tight reign on the betting bank purse strings” Some say bet bet bigger when you are winning .. but i have lost 1000’s that way in my previous life as a punter .. i bet at modest level stakes now come win or lose and just increase my safety net with every winner hopefully 🙂
        My list is just there for a reference … your reasonings are much solider than mine … so i just like to use our pin pointers as ” bets and/or savers “. Keep having fun wing man mc .. we will have many more missions to come 🙂
        so after 400 reasoning we are just left with : Embour in the 4.15 Kempton lol 🙂
        Fill our boots time expect 🙂
        we shall see later if we are still standing 🙂
        and just for you eyes only : cael betio dydd Sadwrn gwych 🙂 ! ( that’s easy for me to say ! 🙂 ) lol 🙂
        still smiling !! 🙂

      2. shut the front door .. in goes our nap JOINT MC ( EMBOUR ) .. never in doubt .. not even messr. moore could stop us !!!!! .. pay pay pay !!!!!!
        even happier now gb 🙂

        RICE AND CHIPS ..AGAIN MRS GB !! 🙂

        1. The Silly Boys prevail by a nose! I nearly wet myself watching that 🙂 A few other winners earlier in the card G too, one more to go. As we’re up I’m having a small EW on Fibonacci in the last. Mr King has his flat runners in form and Mr Probert rides.

          1. NICELY SAVED WITH A PLACE THERE MY MAN .. REAL UPS N LOWS TODAY .. BUT THE NAP COMES IN TO WIN THE MONEY 🙂 CAPS SOZ .. GETTING A BIT EXCITED 🙂
            GOOD NIGHT …… no skinny dipping in that quay !! remember your age 🙂

    3. SBC END OF DAY REPORT :
      just a thought :
      even if you had backed every horse on this list you would have still made 8.28 pts profit to BFSP ………… just saying 😉
      good night 😉
      gb 🙂

      1. Awesome! I think you hit the nail on the head in your reply to Martin today: for most readers if they see any horse they like and it’s in your list, game on! But we do hit some doozies when our thoughts coincide. Here’s to many more of ’em.

        🙂 Goodnight

  38. Bit harsh chubnut about nicks tips April has been tough for nick followers. Any tipster can have a dodgy run of luck and poor selections I hope he soon turns a corner because big price tipping is a difficult thing to do happy easter to all

    1. I think Chub was just making comments about horses running today and not any tipster. I take the point about Final Venture but it was the one I liked when I looked at the race. I think today is very hard and ‘betting banks’ should not be aired to any great extent. Easier days ahead hopefully.

  39. Following Greg’s £3k windfall, reminder have a go at the Golden Race today with WH, 3.35 at Muss. GL RTP.

  40. Nottingham 5.05 20th April and Result report of Newmarket 5f Novice 17th April
    An interesting race where Godolphin had a 1,2,3, result. The first two were joint top rated by me before the race and the third City Wall was the only Godolphin not in the top tier. City Walk was the one that I chose to wager on e/w at 12/1. The reason he was not in the top tier with the first and second was due to my jockey rating. Pat Cosgrave was up and he gave a pretty good illustration of why he is not quite top tier. Missing the break was understandable on a debutant but he then shook him up too enthusiastically and got him over racing. He did then settle (well prepared) but got tucked in behind the leader and had to be switched out to get a run, went for home too soon and got swamped late on having used most of his petrol earlier in the race. Both Buick and Moore rode better considered races and were rewarded accordingly.
    Photo link: https://imgur.com/a/mhv8lvY

    It was a good race and I would think all of these will win a race at some level this season. Even if it is a class 6 at Lingfield for Lexington Quest.
    1. Well Of Wisdom – unfortunately not seen in the pre parade so a poorish picture. Green and looks like a work in progress as the price suggested. 84
    2. Electrical Storm – Probably a bit better over further running on well, got to the front then swamped by Well Of Wisdom 84
    3. City Walk – Good proportions, the picture suggests he was a bit over-awed which I missed at the time and helps to explain his immaturity in the race. Should improve as much as the two in front of him. The second Brazen Beau I have seen and they look very promising. 82
    4. Strong Power – very likeable strongly made sprint type. Gave it everything but out classed here. 77
    5. Millionaire Waltz – Big and tall type, looked to be very upright at the front end when walking which I thought would compromise his ability. Did not seem to hinder him and if he fills out his frame could be quite useful. 76
    6. Full Verse – The only Godolphin runner I couldn’t have. Backed in to favouritism. Not a bad type but did not look to have quite the class of his stablemates 75
    7. Lexington Quest – perhaps my debut rating of 58 is a bit harsh but didn’t really do enough here for an upgrade.
    8. Percy Green – quite a likeable little chap, well muscled although perhaps still a bit fat. I thought he would be more competitive than this and should find a weak race at least. Untypical run for a Karl Burke debutant as he was never competitive. Worth keeping an eye on for a small race somewhere. 65
    Easter Saturday 2yo races
    Only the 5.05 at Nottingham looks of much interest as Champagne Supanova is likely to attract much of the market due to his third on debut at Windsor. That was a poor race and he only finished a couple of lengths in front of Lexington Quest -see above.
    4.25 Dylan De Vega, Making History
    3.75 Temple Of Heaven,
    2.75 Foad, Isobar Wind
    Previous runs
    Champagne Supernova, compact early season type, very green early and ran on ok as the penny dropped. Shame he got as far as third as there will probably be no value nto. 64
    Isobar Wind – It is the fact that this one did not get in amongst them which leads me to feel that the first 4 may be better than is usually seen this early in the season. Smaller strong type, looked very fit in the paddock but appears to be carrying a bit of belly in the photo. Should win nto at a lesser track 73
    Dangers abound in the unraced Dylan De Vega from Fahey, Making History from SBS and Temple of Heaven from Hannon. SBS has a 35% strike rate with his 2yos at Nottingham. My selection may get outclassed by one of these but should be very competitive.
    1pt win Isobar Wind. 9/1 generally.
    Hugh

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