Members Daily Post: 16/04/19 (complete)

Flat Test x2, tips x2, Section 1 (complete), test zone , Craven pointers

1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against TTP Stats Packs

JUMPS

Exeter

2.40 –

Here’s Herbie   (micro class) H3 I1 18/1 S2A S5 

Bang On   (m TJC) I3 G3 10/1 S1 S2 S5 

3.50 – Snuff Box   HcCh, m’s class and age) I3 12/1 S2 S5 UP

 

FLAT

Newmarket (Rowley)

5.20 – Marhaban   (all Hc’s, m runs)  w1  w2 I3 2/1 

 

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THE KEY

Please Read: All information regarding the members club, the content, advised strategies, welcome info for new members, results, links to research articles,  tipping competition rules, contact info and much more can be found HERE>>>

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2.Any Tips/Notes (Daily Tips/Big Race Tips/Best of Stats Tips)

Daily (2017:+110,2018: -22.2, 2019: 5/46, 11p -8.4)  Big Race Tips (2018:+143; 2019 Jumps 4/70,19p, -34, 2019 Flat TEST 0/3,1p, -0.5)

 

Daily Tips

3.50 Exeter

Plantagenet – 1 point win – 10/1 (gen) UP 14/1

Bertie Boru – 1 point win – 16/1 (gen) UP 20/1

Oh well that didn’t go too well, happy to take on the winner et al at prices, esp winner at 9/2 early,  albeit they filled the first three! The punt on BB didn’t come off, Plantagenet had me on the edge of my seat turning for home, sadly his stamina gave way – maybe ground tad testing enough but that didn’t cost him, horses with more stamina have seen that out. I’m not sure id ever back a chase maiden in a race like that, with no 26f win even to name, stepping up to that trip, but there we go. His dam was related to a GN winner, and he’s clearly got some of those genes in a dour staying performance. Great ride from Sam TD. Moving on. 

that’s all tips for today, 09.05, write ups…

Plantagenet – i’m usually a bit reticent about backing chasers who PU LTO, and even more so going into a marathon chase like this- however on paper there’s a valid excuse- it was at The Festival, in proper soft, and on ratings he had no chance whatsoever. So, i’ll put a line through that. IF he arrived here on the back of his run two starts back he’d be 7s or so in this. It’s often good to have a lightly raced one onside and he’s just that. Since he’s gone chasing in CP he’s been a revelation this season, ultra consistent on good/good to soft. That Plumpton win over 26f, and other staying on efforts, inc here over hurdles (3m), suggest he’s well worth a go at this trip. 10s/11s seemed fair to me. He’s down in class, races prominently, generally jumps well, and IF he runs his race, will out-run these odds. Whether he does stay of course is the question, hence wanting a price. On the face of it his trainer appears to have gone cold but having looked deeper, most of his recent runners have gone off silly prices, suggesting they had no form chance and it was only 17 days ago he was having a winner. He’s worth a go at this level, and while he needs to improve again, the hope is that these conditions bring about such improvement.

Bertie Boru – from the unexposed/lightly raced chaser, to the other extreme. I would dearly love for these old boys to stop luring me in, but alas, at 16s I really couldn’t help myself. This race has gone to plenty of old timers, 10/11 year olds, nine 12 year olds have ran in it, a couple have placed – and at least in recent year’s he’s lightly raced. This is only his 6th run in 2 years, which of course is arguably more a negative for one with older legs but he must be showing enough for new connections to keep going. He returned two starts back after a lengthy absence over hurdles. 66/1, there to get him back into the grove. His run LTO, in Coningsby’s race who won for us there, was a step forward. As is his want he plugged on from the back. I find it interesting they keep running him here and he now steps up to ‘his’ trip – he’s always run like a stayer, and has some decent efforts to his name over extended trips, often staying on at the line, rather than going backwards. I think he will stay. Whether or not he’s in view of the leaders when he stays on, we shall see! I also thought it interesting that they put up Tom O’Brien, riding him for the first time since April 17, having not been on his last four runs, nor the last two for his new trainer. Clearly it’s a risky one. All ability may have gone, he may now ‘bounce’, and he won’t be sighted. He’s always had the ability to take a fence home with him also, just to improve his chance further! 🙂 In a race where I thought plenty may fall in a hole, or not get home, or be out of form, or not good enough etc, I thought that IF he built on that run LTO, he would give me some excitement at 16s. His new trainer’s stats are not the best, but this is only her 6th handicap chase runner in 2 years, and all her winners under rules in the last 5 years are in such race (only 2/43 mind!). Whether she can train is a valid question, but the horse has lured me in at the odds.

Of the rest… well my shortlist of 3 included Dancing Shadow and I can see the case. I’ll be a tad annoyed if i’ve got him wrong – IF he repeats his run here two starts back, he’s the one to beat. I had a concern over his actual weight of 11-12, to lug around here, and the fact he’s just inconsistent now- his run at Taunton LTO was woeful, throwing in the towel when passed/under pressure. He also didn’t ‘stay on’ in that Exeter run, starting to stop really late on. However that was a much better race than this. If he bolts up, then Nick has him covered, but I went for the two at bigger prices.

Of course none of those three may win. I couldn’t bring myself to back the other four at 7s< – they just have too many questions in the context of their price, however I clearly wouldn’t be shocked if the likes of The Happy Chappy, and You Say What, took this. Pipes is interesting but he’s so many Ps in his profile, had his problems and gets 1st blinkers- never a great sign, and while they may work, asking them to do so in a marathon chase is fraught with danger. Were he 10s+, i’d have had a decision. THC – well he’s turned a bit moody, keeps dropping himself out, and hitting a fence – even with Sean on. He will stay, i’ve no issues on that front, just whether he does it too late. 6s just wasn’t big enough for me but he could take this. Sandhurst and One of Us were short enough for me, given i’m not sure they see out 24f that strongly and I have a big stamina question- they may answer it, but i’d want bigger to find out.

Kilcullen Flem – there is money for him – he wasn’t big enough for me. I’d be more interested if the rains come and it was proper soft – he may plug on then – this is a horse who gets outpaced over 30f+, in soft/heavy, around Hexham! That takes some doing. He’s a bit moody now, but is a dour plodder – that may be enough. I think he may get tapped for toe at some point and drop himself out. In any case he can beat me at the odds. Maybe the tongue tie will work wonders, not impossible. I was happy to leave the other three for various reasons.

PACE- well it’s always intriguing in these races, esp with those prominent racers stepping up in trip/trying for the first time, as they may be held onto. Dancing Shadow likes to get on with it and if he can get an easy lead, his chance will improve. Plenty can race prominently, including Plantagenet, and they may not hang around here, relatively speaking. You can come from further back over this CD, so not essential you’re up there, but prominent is always the best place to be. Old Bertie will be further back, I just hope he holds a position!

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Flat Big Race Tips: TEST

3.00 Newm- Kick On – 1 point win – 3/1 (gen) WON 3/1>2/1 

5.20 Newm – Mordred – 1 point win – 14/1 (gen)

this is a test :), 09.34. 

I thought i’d use my trainer pointers below to have a go at a couple of races here, and we shall see how wise that proves to be!

Kick On- Gosden has won this race twice in the last four years, inc with Golden Horn and this one has some fancy entries, as do plenty at this time of year in truth. It looks like he wants decent ground and a trip now, and i’ll assume he’s here to run his race, and kick on this season. I’ll get my coat. I’m happy to take Western Australia on as he’s open to attack from anything more progressive, and AOB at this time of year often uses his UK runners to get a gauge on the English oppo, and to help assess what he has at home. He seems short enough, and is 0/4,2p in this race, most of them beaten favs. His fitness may win the day, we shall see. This should be an informative little contest.

Mordred – Hannon likes a big priced winner at this meeting. Whether he has one or two this year, or indeed i’ve landed on the right one, we shall see. I thought on the strength of his form he looked overpriced here. I’m taking fitness on trust but he’s a price where I can take a chance. Maybe the weight/rating  will be too much, but he’s open to further improvement over this distance and in a small field, I thought looked one of the more interesting bigger priced ones from the list below, which includes plenty of shorties. No doubt Burdian, Kuwait Country or Walkinthesand will now hack up, and i’ll have picked the wrong Hannon biggie. We shall see.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

Jumps Fact Sheet 2018/19 

Jockeys/chasers

3.50 E – The Happy Chappy (9/1< best)

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Welcome Info/Section 1 Strategies

Report 1 (previously shared) : Where to Begin? : READ HERE>>>

Report 2: Other ideas: READ HERE>>>

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 Stats/Trends Report : HERE>>>

  • Newmarket’s Craven Meeting Trainer Pointers

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Trainer Track Profiles: Summer Jumps 2019 READ HERE>>>

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The Craven Meeting: Trainer Pointers

from the report above…

1.15 

Forty Four Sunset

Twist N Shake (7/2<)

1.50

Buridan

2.25 

Kuwait Currency

Azano

3.00 

Kick On

Walkinthesand

3.35 

Come On Leicester

Angels Hideaway

Orchid Star

4.10 

Chasing Dreams (7/1<)

5.20 

Mordred

Marhaban

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

99 Responses

  1. Newmarket tomorrow, so, go steady with these…small stakes again

    13:50 Newmarket
    BLACKHEATH 8/1 gen 1pt win
    BURIDAN 8/1 1pt win

    write ups in morning.

    1. Ha, well, suppose i can claim that when i selected BURIDAN it was 8/1 at 18:30, before everyone tipped it up… haha.
      BURIDAN
      Well, it looks like everyone has beaten me to the write ups on this one, like the others say it`s best to be up with the pace and forcing it rather than coming from behind..but, being hypocritical that goes for my other selection.
      BLACKHEATH
      Trainer won this last year with AEOLUS and this one looks similar, his victory at Salisbury was pretty smart and can only think it was ground conditions that have gone against him since then, should finish really smartly and can come from behind the pace to win smartly if push comes to shove! value price both of these.
      As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  2. Oh dear, going against Stewart here so not good. I have one of my dead sea scroll micros dug out here.

    Craven meeting, back any Kevin Ryan runner over 5 and 6 furlongs, aged 4 years or more. Tommy Taylor in the 13.50 qualifies.

    Could be a load of tat, anyone with HRB and the inclination could check 🙂

    1. No he’s dynamite here with that angle. Or has been. He was in my notes for this last year but I decided to stick with the 3 winning most trainers in the period. Tommy will be here to run his race. That angle is 7/13 or so, something like that! One horse resp for a few of those but same owners etc. Doubt you’ll be the last on these boards to fancy him…. 🙂

  3. Tuesday Tips – 1.50 NKT, Buridan, 1.5 points each way at 8/1. The horse has had a pipe opener this season after a lay off. He may struggle in class two but we have to wait and see. He is likely to lead or be prominent and may be good enough to stay in front.
    3.35 NKT, Nashirah, 1 point each way at 14/1. The horse has been holidaying in Dubai, running OK. before that he was a dual winner in lower grade races in the UK. The winter break may have brought him on. He should be prominent and we will find out if he has progressed come the last furlong?
    6.45 WOL, Invitational, 3 points win at 9/2. This horse has good winning form. The short priced favourite may be overrated I think and no value. Hopefully she will be off the pace and come with a run up the outside.

    Good luck.

  4. Buridan Newmarket 13:50 1pt e/w 7/1-all the bandits claiming the 8/1 should be ashamed (Chubnut smile face)
    Dancing Shadow Exeter 15:50 1pt e/w

  5. 1.50 Newmarket – Buridan 1pt e/w
    Seven career runs for a 4yo is not exposing the full ability of this horse.
    Two cl4 hcp wins and then a 4/20 over the July course in a cl2 suggests there’s more to come. Its final run last season was a damp squib.
    Had an outing over 6f at Doncaster latest.
    Watching the race back I detect a flailing arms type of ride which was a gentle intro back into the season particularly how it was held onto instead of being more prominent/leading.
    Drawn 1 on the far side I envisage Levey leading on this horse and grabbing the far rail and stretching the field.
    Prominent runners I favour over 6f here rather than hold up horses which is the main reason i’m not doing a write up for Tommy Taylor. 🙂

      1. No more tipping Buridan, first come first served. I think that we have figured out that he may have some improvement to come!!!

  6. I don’t know if anyone on here bets with Willy Hill but last Saturday I placed a few of the peoples tips I follow with Willy Hill, while placing said bets I clicked on The Golden Race tab to see what it was all about, It said I had qualified to predicted the 1st 6 in order in the 5.35 at Newbury well it took me 30 seconds to select my 6, now when I logged into Willy Hill just now to back one of Nicks for tomorrow, I nearly fell off my chair to see my balance had increased by £3333.34p, after googling the T&C’s, It would appear that I had a third share in the consolation prize for predicting the 1st and 2nd correctly.

    1. Well done Greg a nice surprise and you could well have another one on your WH account restriction on BOG or even account closed over the next 7 days, depends if you have been winning over the past 12 months, will have to see but know doubt you will have been flagged to be watched.
      Enjoy your good fortune.
      Colin.

      1. Thanks everyone, I suspect they already are watching my account, I have won about £700 with them since this season’s baseball started under 3 weeks and now their prices are very poor compared to other bookmakers so back elsewhere, like you say Colin they don’t like winners and the markets I back in on the baseball are not really used on the exchanges.

        1. Yep well done Greg, a nice pot there to treat yourself with. Suspect a few others may start looking at that Golden Race tab now.

  7. Newmarket tomorrow, so, go steady with these…small stakes again

    13:50 Newmarket
    BLACKHEATH 8/1 gen 1pt win
    BURIDAN 8/1 1pt win

    write ups in morning.

    1. Ha, well, suppose i can claim that when i selected BURIDAN it was 8/1 at 18:30, before everyone tipped it up… haha.
      BURIDAN
      Well, it looks like everyone has beaten me to the write ups on this one, like the others say it`s best to be up with the pace and forcing it rather than coming from behind..but, being hypocritical that goes for my other selection.
      BLACKHEATH
      Trainer won this last year with AEOLUS and this one looks similar, his victory at Salisbury was pretty smart and can only think it was ground conditions that have gone against him since then, should finish really smartly and can come from behind the pace to win smartly if push comes to shove! value price both of these.
      As always hope all horses and jockeys come back safe and sound and good luck with whatever you select today.

  8. Oh dear, going against Stewart here so not good. I have one of my dead sea scroll micros dug out here.

    Craven meeting, back any Kevin Ryan runner over 5 and 6 furlongs, aged 4 years or more. Tommy Taylor in the 13.50 qualifies.

    Could be a load of tat, anyone with HRB and the inclination could check 🙂

    1. No he’s dynamite here with that angle. Or has been. He was in my notes for this last year but I decided to stick with the 3 winning most trainers in the period. Tommy will be here to run his race. That angle is 7/13 or so, something like that! One horse resp for a few of those but same owners etc. Doubt you’ll be the last on these boards to fancy him…. 🙂

  9. Tuesday Tips – 1.50 NKT, Buridan, 1.5 points each way at 8/1. The horse has had a pipe opener this season after a lay off. He may struggle in class two but we have to wait and see. He is likely to lead or be prominent and may be good enough to stay in front.
    3.35 NKT, Nashirah, 1 point each way at 14/1. The horse has been holidaying in Dubai, running OK. before that he was a dual winner in lower grade races in the UK. The winter break may have brought him on. He should be prominent and we will find out if he has progressed come the last furlong?
    6.45 WOL, Invitational, 3 points win at 9/2. This horse has good winning form. The short priced favourite may be overrated I think and no value. Hopefully she will be off the pace and come with a run up the outside.

    Good luck.

  10. Buridan Newmarket 13:50 1pt e/w 7/1-all the bandits claiming the 8/1 should be ashamed (Chubnut smile face)
    Dancing Shadow Exeter 15:50 1pt e/w

      1. The point I was trying to make mate is he was only available with Ladbrokes and no one else. Personally I make sure the price is with at least 3 bookies and place terms with at least 4 but surely you’d want it with a minimum of 2. Obviously a moot point now the way its drifting.

        1. Agree, sorry, when I picked it at 18:22 there were 4 on 8/1, will take a knee on that one, your right though Nick, normally would put up majority price. anyways, the drift is good…..

          1. When I physically posted the horse was 8/1 with three bookmakers. Anyone who says that I am not a gentleman will be forced to oblige me with a duel at dawn.

  11. 1.50 Newmarket – Buridan 1pt e/w
    Seven career runs for a 4yo is not exposing the full ability of this horse.
    Two cl4 hcp wins and then a 4/20 over the July course in a cl2 suggests there’s more to come. Its final run last season was a damp squib.
    Had an outing over 6f at Doncaster latest.
    Watching the race back I detect a flailing arms type of ride which was a gentle intro back into the season particularly how it was held onto instead of being more prominent/leading.
    Drawn 1 on the far side I envisage Levey leading on this horse and grabbing the far rail and stretching the field.
    Prominent runners I favour over 6f here rather than hold up horses which is the main reason i’m not doing a write up for Tommy Taylor. 🙂

      1. No more tipping Buridan, first come first served. I think that we have figured out that he may have some improvement to come!!!

  12. I don’t know if anyone on here bets with Willy Hill but last Saturday I placed a few of the peoples tips I follow with Willy Hill, while placing said bets I clicked on The Golden Race tab to see what it was all about, It said I had qualified to predicted the 1st 6 in order in the 5.35 at Newbury well it took me 30 seconds to select my 6, now when I logged into Willy Hill just now to back one of Nicks for tomorrow, I nearly fell off my chair to see my balance had increased by £3333.34p, after googling the T&C’s, It would appear that I had a third share in the consolation prize for predicting the 1st and 2nd correctly.

    1. Bloody hell. That was a nice surprise. If it was me I would’ve transferred it out just in case it was a mistake 🙂

    2. Well done Greg a nice surprise and you could well have another one on your WH account restriction on BOG or even account closed over the next 7 days, depends if you have been winning over the past 12 months, will have to see but know doubt you will have been flagged to be watched.
      Enjoy your good fortune.
      Colin.

      1. Thanks everyone, I suspect they already are watching my account, I have won about £700 with them since this season’s baseball started under 3 weeks and now their prices are very poor compared to other bookmakers so back elsewhere, like you say Colin they don’t like winners and the markets I back in on the baseball are not really used on the exchanges.

        1. Yep well done Greg, a nice pot there to treat yourself with. Suspect a few others may start looking at that Golden Race tab now.

  13. today’s selections.
    Newmarket.
    1-50. well i’m going against you all 🙂 with one from a bit left field , Zain Hana 20-1 BV 4 places, if you take out her runs above 6f and on all weather the bare bones of form are pretty good , drawn next to Green Power she should get a good tow into the race and the stable switch is interesting to say the least.
    3-35. Come On Leicester 33-1 sky 4 places, must admit the price has drawn me in as she is vulnerable to improvers.
    Exeter.
    2-40. Master Work 15-2 BV , will have to defy top weight to win this but has the ability.
    3-50. Kilcullen Flem 10-1 sky 4 places, would like it softer but will get every inch unlike some of the others who are unproven at this distance.
    all 1/2 pt ew

  14. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    E 3.50 – The Happy Chappy on 2nd run @ 13/2
    Festival/BRT
    E 2.40 – Nelsons Touch on 3rd run @ 16
    N 1.50 – Green Power on 2nd and 3rd run @ 6
    GL

  15. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Gabriel’s Kaka BOG 4/1
    6.15 Clement BOG 11/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.25 Newmarket Shine So Bright BOG 3/1
    NEW METHOD
    6.45 Wolverhampton Nooshin BOG 11/4
    Colin

  16. Shout out to George B, hope all well with you? Gonna have a go at Wolverhampton tonite if you want to play, grateful for any input 🙂 Will be back here between 3 and 4pm

    1. Hello mark c . yep all good back on an even keel .. just had a quiet few days head in my hrb 😉

      I don’t think hardly anything is coming up for wolvers tonight ???? will check again and revert 🙂
      Glad your up and at it !!

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. Me too, glad things are ok. I’ll post back at this point later if you are ready before me please do likewise so we don’t get in the way of the proper tipsters 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. no system bets at wolves tonight ? 🙁
      my only bet will be as per my competittion tip ( 19.15 wolves = corinthia knight)
      cheers
      gb
      p.s. i did get and do your winner saturday night in between hospital visits .. wd !! u keep making me in profit 🙂 … i thought i said thanks on saturday night as well but can’t see it now ?? .. ha ha … thanks !!! 🙂 have a good day !!
      gl gb 🙂

    3. THESE WERE THE ORIGINAL LOOSE QUALIFIERS :
      5.45 Wolverhampton 11 Zarkavon
      6.15 Wolverhampton 9 Indian Affair
      7.15 Wolverhampton 1 Corinthia Knight (IRE)
      7.15 Wolverhampton 6 Kyllang Rock (IRE)
      8.15 Wolverhampton 5 Final Attack (IRE)
      8.15 Wolverhampton 12 First Call (FR)
      But i couldn’t trim them down anymore to warrant a selection ( apart from corinthia Knight = jockey swayed me here 😉 )

      CHEERS GB 🙂
      good luckius tonight 😉

      1. SBC update Wolverhampton

        Good day to you VP GB, thanks for the list. Not a night for many bets I think.

        5.45 – the most interesting race of the evening I think. For win purposes I cannot see past Amor Fati, but if playing at that price is not for you I think both Aqua Libre and Gone With The Wind are interesting EW or place only plays.

        6.15 – trainer is hopeful that Little Miss Daisy will run better tonight, small EW for me.

        7.15 – it’s annoying that your system has burped out C.Knight as I was keen on Kyllachy Rock (t/J 40% win/60% place last 12 months). I also thought Mr Ivory would have a squeak with Tropics. Now not sure. May leave it for win purposes and do Tropics EW.

        8.15 – if running up to his best I can see Herm taking this.

        Not that inspiring tonight G. Glad you had the winner on Saturday. Wasn’t sure you would have time to see my post as you were otherwise engaged draining the NHS resources 🙂

        I think we are the only ones listening to each other but, hey, it seems to be working! Looking forward to AW finals day on Good Friday!

        Catch you tomorrow for more AW fun I think it’s Chelmers, one of my favourite tracks.

        VP MC

        1. Yep cheers mc …. think we have southwell tomorrow evening ? i’ve now just completed a southwell system where the horse has come down in distance .. with about 54 other parameters ….. but profit and percentages are good but only in certain months ( not april 🙁 )
          keep the faith … we will win through 🙂
          don’t let any of mine put you off yours .. mine were all first phasers only !!!

          gb 🙂

          1. I stand corrected, Chelmers must be Thursday, looking forward to the system bets after April.
            Laters potaterz

        2. always new tonight was going to ba a good night !! 5.45 winner and f/c wd ..vwd .. mr mc take an sbc bowel bow bowe .. ?? well one of them any how ………. evenings fun paid for ta ..great studying / picking 🙂
          your learned friend mr gb 🙂

  17. Buridan my view now the markets have settled and it is widely 10/1.
    Has won three class 4 races now running again in class 2 and it is 6lb higher than its last winning mark in a class 4 there are 9 horses making their seasonal debut, with no access to any of the stables do not know which are race fit and which are not, so not a race i would wish to play in.
    With the betting Richard Hannon is probably giving another run in class 2, before dropping it back to class 4 where it is a proven winner, unless it wins today which for you all hope that it does.
    Colin.

    1. Forgot to add Dettori is at Newmarket and does not have a ride in the 1.50 why his he not in the plate today ?

  18. today’s selections.
    Newmarket.
    1-50. well i’m going against you all 🙂 with one from a bit left field , Zain Hana 20-1 BV 4 places, if you take out her runs above 6f and on all weather the bare bones of form are pretty good , drawn next to Green Power she should get a good tow into the race and the stable switch is interesting to say the least.
    3-35. Come On Leicester 33-1 sky 4 places, must admit the price has drawn me in as she is vulnerable to improvers.
    Exeter.
    2-40. Master Work 15-2 BV , will have to defy top weight to win this but has the ability.
    3-50. Kilcullen Flem 10-1 sky 4 places, would like it softer but will get every inch unlike some of the others who are unproven at this distance.
    all 1/2 pt ew

  19. Thoughts (NOT selections) on the 1.15 and 4.10 Nmkt regarding large heart runners.
    1.15. All have good chances on pedigree and favs 43% so Maqsad running in a time of 12.29 spf over the distance has a very good chance. Likewise, Twist’n’Shake 2nd favs having 19% win percentage……looking at the heart line Venusta from the Channon yard may well outrun the odds as 50/1 seems too high as Channon 9/37 with 3 yo with 24% win ration and +£27 level stakess profit .

    4.10. From the heart approach Arasuger at 20/ looks interesting and at 43% favs winning Chasing Dreams has an obvious chance with the pedigree staking up along with Kemble. cheers

    1. 1.15 nmk.t Venusta dwelt in stalls so did well to come in 4th.
      4.10. ” Arasugar ran no sort of race so might not be that good.

  20. Nothing really to see here, as I had done the numbers I thought I should put them up.
    16th April Newmarket 5f Fillies Maiden
    Scores
    4.25 Chasing Dreams
    3.75 Bartat, Kemble
    3.25 Good Vibes

  21. Just went back through the Nell Gwynn entries I had seen as 2yos. This highlights how my post race ratings pretty much reflect how they look as 2yos as the variations are quite exaggerated. Purely out of interest this is what I have.
    Angel’s Hideaway 87
    Look Around 86
    Main Edition 84
    Come On Leicester 78
    Sunday Star 75
    Mot Juste 71
    Unfortunately I haven’t seen either of the Godolphin runners. If these works out then Look Around would appear to be great value. I hope that Mot Juste does not deliver egg on my face!
    Hugh

  22. RECENT TIPS
    Daily
    E 3.50 – The Happy Chappy on 2nd run @ 13/2
    Festival/BRT
    E 2.40 – Nelsons Touch on 3rd run @ 16
    N 1.50 – Green Power on 2nd and 3rd run @ 6
    GL

  23. COLINS BETS
    Wolverhampton
    5.45 Gabriel’s Kaka BOG 4/1
    6.15 Clement BOG 11/2
    ELITE BETS
    2.25 Newmarket Shine So Bright BOG 3/1
    NEW METHOD
    6.45 Wolverhampton Nooshin BOG 11/4
    Colin

  24. 1.50 Newmarket first two home seasonal debuts again with 9 of them which are race fit very difficult to back in races with so many, Buridan did have an advantage already had a run, will be surprised if it is better than class 4, will be very dangerous in that class.
    One step up in class does not sound much but in reality it is a big step, and for me in most cases it must have won in in the class do make allowances for improving 3 year olds which can rapidly improve.
    No joy in being proved correct for really wanted it to win for Nick, Stewart and Martin who put it up.
    Colin.

    1. Thanks Colin, it was a muddling race and one of the reasons I don`t like the flat…but, on we must press!

      1. Cheers Stewart over the years all i have heard you should not look at the flat till after the Guineas or mid May onwards when most have had a run but we all are drawn into it and over the years my wallet became thin backing in the guineas.
        Colin.

    2. Well i wanted him to win for them, and my bank balance haha.

      After that run I would side with idea that he hasn’t progressed from last year – that 4L defeat in one of hottest 2YP C2s of season would indicate he should be better than C4, but yep would agree there’s some questions mounting for him now. It didn’t help that the stalls did not stretch across from rail to rail as in this race last year – he raced up the middle, but so did the winner, but AA has tracked over to this nearside to challenge whereas Leavy hasn’t, possibly cost him 4th i’m not sure. Interesting race. OMeara’s won’t go unnoticed NTO, would have run for a clear run , but that happens when you’re held up, so have to take your medicine.

      This nearside rail does appear to be golden again.
      Varian winning with a gelded one – suppose they are worth noting as he generally has well bred ones, so when they decide no breeding value, have the cut, and then appearing in handicaps, likely they could have a bit in hand etc, and reason to improve. He also said he’d got stronger and quicker, hence drop down from 7f, to strongly run/stiff 6f. Suspect he may try that trick with a few others maybe. Important to think of horses getting quicker as they get stronger/more mature inc mentally- which isn’t something I always think about. First idea is that they’d get further, stay etc for maturing, rather than be better dropped back due to being sharper/quicker. The great game.

  25. Shout out to George B, hope all well with you? Gonna have a go at Wolverhampton tonite if you want to play, grateful for any input 🙂 Will be back here between 3 and 4pm

    1. Hello mark c . yep all good back on an even keel .. just had a quiet few days head in my hrb 😉

      I don’t think hardly anything is coming up for wolvers tonight ???? will check again and revert 🙂
      Glad your up and at it !!

      gl/gb 🙂

      1. Me too, glad things are ok. I’ll post back at this point later if you are ready before me please do likewise so we don’t get in the way of the proper tipsters 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. no system bets at wolves tonight ? 🙁
      my only bet will be as per my competittion tip ( 19.15 wolves = corinthia knight)
      cheers
      gb
      p.s. i did get and do your winner saturday night in between hospital visits .. wd !! u keep making me in profit 🙂 … i thought i said thanks on saturday night as well but can’t see it now ?? .. ha ha … thanks !!! 🙂 have a good day !!
      gl gb 🙂

    3. THESE WERE THE ORIGINAL LOOSE QUALIFIERS :
      5.45 Wolverhampton 11 Zarkavon
      6.15 Wolverhampton 9 Indian Affair
      7.15 Wolverhampton 1 Corinthia Knight (IRE)
      7.15 Wolverhampton 6 Kyllang Rock (IRE)
      8.15 Wolverhampton 5 Final Attack (IRE)
      8.15 Wolverhampton 12 First Call (FR)
      But i couldn’t trim them down anymore to warrant a selection ( apart from corinthia Knight = jockey swayed me here 😉 )

      CHEERS GB 🙂
      good luckius tonight 😉

      1. SBC update Wolverhampton

        Good day to you VP GB, thanks for the list. Not a night for many bets I think.

        5.45 – the most interesting race of the evening I think. For win purposes I cannot see past Amor Fati, but if playing at that price is not for you I think both Aqua Libre and Gone With The Wind are interesting EW or place only plays.

        6.15 – trainer is hopeful that Little Miss Daisy will run better tonight, small EW for me.

        7.15 – it’s annoying that your system has burped out C.Knight as I was keen on Kyllachy Rock (t/J 40% win/60% place last 12 months). I also thought Mr Ivory would have a squeak with Tropics. Now not sure. May leave it for win purposes and do Tropics EW.

        8.15 – if running up to his best I can see Herm taking this.

        Not that inspiring tonight G. Glad you had the winner on Saturday. Wasn’t sure you would have time to see my post as you were otherwise engaged draining the NHS resources 🙂

        I think we are the only ones listening to each other but, hey, it seems to be working! Looking forward to AW finals day on Good Friday!

        Catch you tomorrow for more AW fun I think it’s Chelmers, one of my favourite tracks.

        VP MC

        1. Yep cheers mc …. think we have southwell tomorrow evening ? i’ve now just completed a southwell system where the horse has come down in distance .. with about 54 other parameters ….. but profit and percentages are good but only in certain months ( not april 🙁 )
          keep the faith … we will win through 🙂
          don’t let any of mine put you off yours .. mine were all first phasers only !!!

          gb 🙂

          1. I stand corrected, Chelmers must be Thursday, looking forward to the system bets after April.
            Laters potaterz

        2. always new tonight was going to ba a good night !! 5.45 winner and f/c wd ..vwd .. mr mc take an sbc bowel bow bowe .. ?? well one of them any how ………. evenings fun paid for ta ..great studying / picking 🙂
          your learned friend mr gb 🙂

          1. we iz a force 2b reckoned with … innit !! ..good night …and good night !! 🙂
            a very content gb 🙂

  26. Buridan my view now the markets have settled and it is widely 10/1.
    Has won three class 4 races now running again in class 2 and it is 6lb higher than its last winning mark in a class 4 there are 9 horses making their seasonal debut, with no access to any of the stables do not know which are race fit and which are not, so not a race i would wish to play in.
    With the betting Richard Hannon is probably giving another run in class 2, before dropping it back to class 4 where it is a proven winner, unless it wins today which for you all hope that it does.
    Colin.

    1. Forgot to add Dettori is at Newmarket and does not have a ride in the 1.50 why his he not in the plate today ?

      1. Who would he be in the plate for?? None of those trainers use him regularly/if at all, and/or have relationships with those booked, generally speaking. And Frankie isn’t really bothered about riding in a handicap – I’m not sure who he’d ride for in that, even if his services were offered.

        Buridan – very dangerous from a three to four year old making assumptions about class and ratings etc – especially one having the 9th run of his life. He’s in the unproven category on that front – it may well be the case that 91 is his limit, we shall see, and yep one to take note off when dropped in class. You wouldn’t fall of your seat if he bolted up in this though.

        I think the only way to know if a horse will be fit after a break is whether they’ve won fresh/on return before, or gone very very close to doing so. Been plenty of those winning in the flat meetings to date. But yea outside of that, you really are guessing unless info from the trainer, but it’s good to see a horse with a decent record fresh, or a trainer record at a meeting like this. My Hannon test tip in the last race may not be fit enough, but he was on the first run of his life last year, so some hope, mixed with fact he likes winners at this meeting. Then all a question of price.

        Josh

        1. Dettori was retained by Al Shaqab Racing and had many winners in those colours, not heard that he his no longer retained i could be wrong and missed the announcement.
          Nico is stable jockey to Nicky Henderson but Jacobs rides a certain owners horses in the green colours forgot the owners name, not Nico.
          Frankie not bothered about riding in a Handicap worth £16,172 to the winner on live TV, any jockey wants winners that why he will go to Nottingham, Pontefract etc to ride in races worth £3000 to the winner.
          Has i said that is my view and too many negatives and horses making their seasonal debuts.
          Hope it wins, will soon know.
          Colin.

          1. Little more digging Dettori rode it at Windsor in its first race same owners Richard Hannon trainer won at 8/11 class 4, next 7 races not been in the plate, maybe at different meetings so unable to ride or maybe not as good as first thought, today should tell.
            Colin

          2. Yep I don’t believe he is retained by them anymore, that relationship ended at some point, I forget when, but some time ago. He can’t be otherwise he’d be on him I assume and obvs Levey/TM are Hannons two main jockeys now I believe outside of any owners retained jockeys.

            Dettori if riding at these small tracks will be because of the horse and trainer /owner wants him on. He really doesn’t ride for money anymore in sense of picking up what he would call smaller pots. Well that’s the impression I get I could be talking nonsense. In any case if I’m right about those owners etc then he wouldn’t have had the choice to ride anything in this I don’t think. So it’s not a neg for this horse anyway.

          3. Brain working in overdrive Dettori is John Gosden’s first jockey now if it is still working that is debatable!!!
            Colin.

          4. haha, sounds like it is! hard to keep up at times and these jockey / trainer/ owner relationships/behaviours are important. Dettori has had first dibs on Johny G runners for ages i thought, even when he was retained etc, but of course that yard have a few owners with retained riders – Crowley / Buick for the arabs etc. Of course if you like the price of a horse etc, it’s never wise to over-complicate jockey bookings. A good ‘way in’ and context, esp if today’s jockey didn’t ride LTO, or hasn’t been on for a while and you’d view as an upgrade, either in ability or connections ‘behaviour’ / intent etc.

  27. Thoughts (NOT selections) on the 1.15 and 4.10 Nmkt regarding large heart runners.
    1.15. All have good chances on pedigree and favs 43% so Maqsad running in a time of 12.29 spf over the distance has a very good chance. Likewise, Twist’n’Shake 2nd favs having 19% win percentage……looking at the heart line Venusta from the Channon yard may well outrun the odds as 50/1 seems too high as Channon 9/37 with 3 yo with 24% win ration and +£27 level stakess profit .

    4.10. From the heart approach Arasuger at 20/ looks interesting and at 43% favs winning Chasing Dreams has an obvious chance with the pedigree staking up along with Kemble. cheers

    1. 1.15 nmk.t Venusta dwelt in stalls so did well to come in 4th.
      4.10. ” Arasugar ran no sort of race so might not be that good.

  28. one last chance for a good day as i have this bet left:

    Treble @209.94/1
    Stake Potential Returns
    £1.00 £210.94
    Open
    Mordred
    Outright
    NEWMARKET 17:20
    @14/1
    Competition: Newmarket
    Distance: 1m 2f 0y
    Event Date: 17:20, 16 Apr 2019
    Won
    Kick On
    Outright
    NEWMARKET 15:00
    @11/4
    Won
    Shine So Bright
    Outright
    NEWMARKET 14:25
    fingers firmly crossed

  29. Nothing really to see here, as I had done the numbers I thought I should put them up.
    16th April Newmarket 5f Fillies Maiden
    Scores
    4.25 Chasing Dreams
    3.75 Bartat, Kemble
    3.25 Good Vibes

  30. Just went back through the Nell Gwynn entries I had seen as 2yos. This highlights how my post race ratings pretty much reflect how they look as 2yos as the variations are quite exaggerated. Purely out of interest this is what I have.
    Angel’s Hideaway 87
    Look Around 86
    Main Edition 84
    Come On Leicester 78
    Sunday Star 75
    Mot Juste 71
    Unfortunately I haven’t seen either of the Godolphin runners. If these works out then Look Around would appear to be great value. I hope that Mot Juste does not deliver egg on my face!
    Hugh

  31. 1.50 Newmarket first two home seasonal debuts again with 9 of them which are race fit very difficult to back in races with so many, Buridan did have an advantage already had a run, will be surprised if it is better than class 4, will be very dangerous in that class.
    One step up in class does not sound much but in reality it is a big step, and for me in most cases it must have won in in the class do make allowances for improving 3 year olds which can rapidly improve.
    No joy in being proved correct for really wanted it to win for Nick, Stewart and Martin who put it up.
    Colin.

    1. Thanks Colin, it was a muddling race and one of the reasons I don`t like the flat…but, on we must press!

      1. Cheers Stewart over the years all i have heard you should not look at the flat till after the Guineas or mid May onwards when most have had a run but we all are drawn into it and over the years my wallet became thin backing in the guineas.
        Colin.

    2. Well i wanted him to win for them, and my bank balance haha.

      After that run I would side with idea that he hasn’t progressed from last year – that 4L defeat in one of hottest 2YP C2s of season would indicate he should be better than C4, but yep would agree there’s some questions mounting for him now. It didn’t help that the stalls did not stretch across from rail to rail as in this race last year – he raced up the middle, but so did the winner, but AA has tracked over to this nearside to challenge whereas Leavy hasn’t, possibly cost him 4th i’m not sure. Interesting race. OMeara’s won’t go unnoticed NTO, would have run for a clear run , but that happens when you’re held up, so have to take your medicine.

      This nearside rail does appear to be golden again.
      Varian winning with a gelded one – suppose they are worth noting as he generally has well bred ones, so when they decide no breeding value, have the cut, and then appearing in handicaps, likely they could have a bit in hand etc, and reason to improve. He also said he’d got stronger and quicker, hence drop down from 7f, to strongly run/stiff 6f. Suspect he may try that trick with a few others maybe. Important to think of horses getting quicker as they get stronger/more mature inc mentally- which isn’t something I always think about. First idea is that they’d get further, stay etc for maturing, rather than be better dropped back due to being sharper/quicker. The great game.

  32. one last chance for a good day as i have this bet left:

    Treble @209.94/1
    Stake Potential Returns
    £1.00 £210.94
    Open
    Mordred
    Outright
    NEWMARKET 17:20
    @14/1
    Competition: Newmarket
    Distance: 1m 2f 0y
    Event Date: 17:20, 16 Apr 2019
    Won
    Kick On
    Outright
    NEWMARKET 15:00
    @11/4
    Won
    Shine So Bright
    Outright
    NEWMARKET 14:25
    fingers firmly crossed

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